A Common Source for the Late Babylonian Chronicles Dealing with the Eighth and Seventh

Centuries
Author(s): Manuel Gerber
Reviewed work(s):
Source: Journal of the American Oriental Society, Vol. 120, No. 4 (Oct. - Dec., 2000), pp. 553-
569
Published by: American Oriental Society
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 A COMMON SOURCE FOR THE LATE BABYLONIAN CHRONICLES DEALING
WITH THE EIGHTH AND SEVENTH CENTURIES
MANUELGERBER
UNIVERSITYOF BERNE

The natureof the sources of the Babylonian chronicles remains a matter of controversy even after
decades of occasional discussion. Here statistical evidence is presentedthat the sources of the chron-
icles dealing with political events up to the time recorded in Chron. 2 were astrological texts. The
numberof coincidences between exact dates in the examined chronicles and an adannu of 30 days after
ominous planetaryevents is comparedto the numberthat can be expected in a randomsample of dates
between 750-600. The null-hypothesis that the numberof coincidences found in the chronicle sample
is randomcould be rejected at a safe p < 0.02. The long-sought "common source" of the late Babylo-
nian chronicles dealing with the eighth and seventh centuries was therefore in all probabilitya corpus
of astrologicaltexts. Chroniclesdealing with later times were compiled from texts of a differentnature.
This shift from one kind of source texts to another makes a diachronically differentiatedapproachin
the evaluation of the informationcontained in individualchronicles imperative.The design of the pro-
posed test necessitates a sound basis for finding the possible Julian equivalents of Babylonian dates.
A reanalysis of New Year'sdates inferred from eclipse data in LBAT 1413-1417 and of New Year's
dates between 626-539 is therefore presented in the first part of this paper. An average beginning of
the year two weeks before equinox is demonstratedto be probable only until 730. From that time to
the end of Nabopolassar's reign a constant ratio of -7 intercalations per 19 years was maintained,
which kept the average Babylonian New Year's date a few days before equinox. Only at the turn to
the sixth century can a second shift to even later dates be demonstrated.

INTRODUCTION advocated (Hauser 1995), but is difficult to evaluate

THEBABYLONIANCHRONICLES DEALINGWITHthe Neo-
Babylonian period are late compilations, and it is com-
monly assumed that the sources used by the compilers
were roughly contemporary with the events they describe.
The nature of these sources, however, remains a matter
of controversy.' Grayson (1975) hypothesized that the
chronicles were compilations from a running account of
Mesopotamianhistory, partly preservedin the astronom-
ical diaries (Sachs and Hunger 1988). This view is still
1 The author would like to thank K.
Locher, Guest Investi-
gator,Astronomical Institute,Universityof Berne,for help in
assessingeventvisibilityandforgeneraladvice,andM. Wafler,
Instituteof AncientNearEasternArchaeologyandLanguages,
Universityof Berne,for discussionsof philologicalproblems.
Thanksarealsodueto M. Stol,Facultyof Arts,Amsterdam Free
University,forprovidingtheauthorwithnoteson Chron.1, and
J. Donatowicz,Institutefor Astronomy,Universityof Vienna,
forreferencesandhelpfuldiscussions.
(Brinkman 1990). A connection with astrology has also
long been suspected (most recently,Swerdlow 1998), and
an attempt has been made to prove a partial dependence
of the chronicles on Assyrian chronography (Weissert
1992). The view that the texts as a whole are historio-
graphic in nature(van Seters 1983), implicit in many re-
constructions of Neo-Babylonian history, was recently
contested in the case of the chronicles concernedwith the
time before the fall of Assyria (Gerber 1998).
Despite this multitudeof opinions, none of the proposed
explanationshas ever been rigorously put to the test. The
present study attempts to fill this gap by testing the hy-
pothesis that astrological compendia provideda common
source for the chronicles dealing with the political history
of the eighth and seventh centuries. The design of this
test requiresa sound basis for finding the possible Julian
equivalents of Babylonian dates before Nabopolassar.
Therefore, in the first section the evidence provided by
known BabylonianNew Year'sdates is reassessed and an
outline of intercalationpracticeandthe resultantsettingof
the beginning of the Babylonian year during the eighth

553
554 Journal of the American Oriental Society 120.4 (2000)

70 I I
I
60 I

50
40

I 30

20
V

r
V~~~I

r~~~~
r~~~I
0

8-
r r ~ vvv
*I
10 v I

-10
800 700 600 500 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Years DaysfromMarch1
A: Scatterplot B: o Nabopolassar + Amil-Marduk
x Nebuchadnezzar
I A Nergal-ar-Uur
v Nabonidus
FIG.1. Distributional irregularities.

and seventh centuriesis presented.Based on these results, possible New Year'sdates at any given point in time be-
the question of the chronicle sources is addressedin the tween ca. 750 and the reign of Nabopolassar.
second section.
MATERIAL AND METHODS2
I. INTERCALATION PRACTICE BEFORE NABOPOLASSAR

A sample of 101 Babylonian New Year's dates be-

Before Nabopolassar the Julian equivalents of a few
New Year'sDays can be inferred with varying accuracy
from descriptions of dated astronomicalevents. Beyond
that, the picture is vague (Hunger 1976-80: 298): Ac-
cording to the commonly held view, the aimed-for be-
ginning of the Babylonian year in the eighth century fell
about two weeks before vernal equinox (Huber 1982: 8-
10; al-Rawi and George 1992: 61). There is no consensus
about the situation in the seventh century. Kugler (1924)
proposes an average date a few days before equinox,
whereas Huber (1982) postulates a single shift of the
average Babylonian New Year to about ten days after
equinox during the reign of Nabopolassar. Assyrian ev-
idence discussed by Parpola(1983: 381-83) points to an
intermediary stage with dates around equinox already
between 684-648, but Assyrian and Babylonian inter-
calation practice need not always be identical.
Figure 1A shows a scatterplot of Babylonian New
Year'sdates from the eighth century to the Persian con-
quest. The range of the attested dates is roughly two
months. However, at no period is the full range made use
of, and there appearsto be a general trendtowardshigher
dates (indicatedby a linear fit [solid line]). The main aim
of the first part of this paper is to determinethe range of
tween 748-539 was taken into consideration.The Julian
equivalents of the 87 New Year'sdates of the Neo-Baby-
lonian empire (626-539) are known reliably with an
error margin of one day (Parkerand Dubberstein 1956;
with a correction in Neugebauer and Sachs 1967: 189;
Kennedy 1986: 222). As this error is not cumulative, it
was considerednegligible throughoutthis study.The time
before Nabopolassarwas representedby 14 New Year's
dates inferred from lunar eclipse data in LBAT 1413-
1417 (Sachs and Schaumberger1955, Huber 1982). All
dates are given as years B.C.
New Year'sDates of the Empire Period 626-539. In a
first step the complete set of New Year'sdates of the Neo-
2 Statisticalanalysiswasperformed usingSyStat?,SPSSInc.
For astronomical calculations,AstroCalc3.0? (DOS),Zephir
Services, Ltd.; and XEphem 3.1? (UNIX/LINUX), by E. C.
Downey, The Clear Sky Institute,Ltd., were used. The accuracy
of the programswas tested by comparinga sample of predictions
of planetary positions with predictions generated using algo-
rithmsderivedfromBretagnon'sand Francou'sVSOP87 planetary
theory (Meeus 1991). All other calculations were done using
MathCad7?, Mathsoft Inc.
 GERBER:
A Common Source for Late Babylonian Chronicles
Babylonian empire was examined. The data were checked
for distributional irregularities by calculating the running
mode3 with a large window of 22 years. Discontinuities
in the resulting values were assumed to indicate the pres-
ence of subpopulations, i.e., groups of New Year's dates
separated by an uncompensated-for shift in the average be-
ginning of the year. Furthermore, the distribution of dates
was compared between individual reigns. Both procedures
served only to determine the presence and approximate
temporal position of such shifts. To determine appropriate
boundaries between groups the data were examined for se-
ries of unusually numerous intercalations in the vicinity of
the presumed breaks. Group boundaries were defined as
coinciding with the beginnings of these series. An inverse
squared distance smoothed curve4 (8-year window) fitting
the data was used to assess visually the effects of similar
intercalation patterns not coinciding with any of the pre-
sumed breaks.
New Year'sDates of the Pre-Empire Period 748-626.
The available sample of known New Year's dates before
Nabopolassar is more problematic. It represents only 11%
of the 122 years in question, and applying purely statis-
tical methods one would risk obtaining biased results.
Therefore, in order to augment the amount of information,
a simple method was devised to calculate the number
of intercalations between known dates: An intercalation
increases the New Year syzygy of the following year by
-18?, while the syzygy following a year without inter-
calation is decreased by -10?. Between 626-539, this
corresponded to an increase of 17, 18, or 19 days per in-
tercalation and a decrease of 10, 11, or 12 days per regular
3 "Running means" (moving averages) are the means of a
span of values (window) surroundingand including each value
in a series. Mode is a special case of an average, denoting the
most frequent value in a non-uniform distribution, i.e., basi-
cally a distribution with a peak. Where a distribution has more
than one peak, relative modes denote the values with the great-
est local densities. Calculating the runningmode with an appro-
priate window results in discontinuous, "broken,"curves when
the data have more than one density maximum,thus highlighting
the presence of possible subpopulationsand their approximate
boundaries.
4 "Inverse
squareddistance smoothing" fits a curve througha
set of points such that the influence of neighboring points de-
creases with distance. (The height of the curve at a smoothing
point is the weighted average of the y-values at x-values, where
the weights are the squared Euclidian distances from the data
points to the smoothing point on the x-axis. No regression esti-
mation is used.) Like LOWESS-smoothing,this method is used
to reduce scatter. It is, however, generally more sensitive to
small clusters of deviating values.
555
lunar year, respectively. For a given time-span, At and a
given difference As between the corresponding New Year
syzygies the number of intercalations can therefore be de-
termined as follows:
(1) i + j = lAti
(2) ai - bj = |Asl
where i is the numberof years with an intercalation,j the
numberof years without;a andb are field variates:a is the
averageincrease ? SD (StandardDeviation) per year with
intercalation,b the averagedecrease? SD per year without
intercalation.Joined and solved for i, (1) and (2) yield:
As + blAt
(3) i ;i N
a+b
The extrapolatedratio of the numberof intercalations
per 19 years was used as an indicator of constancy.
Where this ratio differedconsiderablyfrom the ideal ratio
of 7 intercalations per 19 years, it was compared to a
LOWESS-smoothed5curve (t = 0.15) fitting the corre-
sponding ratios during all periods equal to At in the
empire-periodsample. Smoothed values were chosen for
comparison in order to compensate for irrelevant short-
term fluctuationsdue to the presumed absence of a reg-
ularintercalationcycle. Wherethe deviationsfrom 7/19 in
the pre-empiresample were comparableto the values in
the vicinity of group boundaries of the empire period,
they were assumed to indicate a shift in the aimed-for
beginning of the year and, thus, a group boundary.
Determination of Relationships between Groups. In
order to decide whether the two adjacent groups at the
boundarybetween the samples shouldbe mergedinto one,
the procedure described above was extended to include
dates before and after 626. Depending on the distribution
of dates within each of the remaining groups, an appro-
priatetest was chosen to determineif the groupsrepresent
statistically distinct populations of New Year's dates, i.e.,
whether or not the distributional differences between
groups are random.
Determination of the Range of Possible New Year's
Dates at AnyPoint between 748-539. Assuming the range
(excluding outlier dates) of New Year's dates in the largest
group after 626 to be representative,ranges of the same
5 "LOWESS-smoothing"is a method to fit a smooth curve to a
set of scattereddataby runningalong the x-values andfindingpre-
dicted values from a weighted average of nearby y-values. The
surfaceis allowed to flex locally to fit the databetter.By choosing
an appropriatewindow, random or non-randomscatter can be
reduced to a desirable level while preservingthe "character"of
the data ratherwell. Outliervalues have very little weight.
556 Journal of the American Oriental Society 120.4 (2000)

TABLE 1: Number of intercalations between known dates

Source New Year No. of Intercalations Intercalations

(LBAT) Year Syzygy At(y) As(?) Intercalations per Year per 19 Years
1413 748 335?
1 -10 0
1413 747i 325?
1 18 1
1413 746 343?
15 13 6 0.4375 (747-731) 8.31
1414 731 356?
18 -18 6
1414 713 i 338?
1 18 1 0.3684 (731-712) 7.00
1414 712 356?
10 -19 3
1415 702 337?
7 12 3 0.3529 (712-695) 6.71
1414 695 349?
27 2 10 0.3704 (695-668) 7.04
1417 668 351?
2 8 1
1415 666i 359?
1 18 1
1415 665 17?
14 -34 4 0.3529 (668-651) 6.71
1417, 1416 651 i 343?
1 18 1
1417, 1416 650 1?
18 -18 6 0.3684 (651-632) 7.00
1417 632 343?

(748-632) 116 30 43
632
6 22 3
626
26 9 0.3692 (731-601) 7.02
600 0.3663 (650-600) 6.96

width were then projected onto the earlier groups. Simi-
larities of group characteristics, absence of contradicting
evidence (i.e., dates beyond the projected range) and con-
stancy of the aimed-for beginning of the year within
groups were considered proof of applicability.
RESULTS
Group Boundaries in the Empire-Period Sample.
Figure 1A is a scatterplot of all Neo-Babylonian New
Year's dates from 748 to 539; the boundary between the
two samples at 626 is shown as a dotted vertical line.
In the empire period sample calculation of the running
mode with a window of 22 years (solid curves) reveals
the existence of at least two subpopulations, the discon-
tinuity coinciding roughly with the end of Nabopolassar's
reign in 604. A comparison of the distribution of New
Year's dates between reigns points in the same direction:
The linear fits in the quantile plot figure 1B (solid lines)
are all approximately parallel (the reign of Amel-Marduk
[dashed line] is irrelevant because it is represented by
only two dates), which indicates a nearly equal range
 GERBER:
A Common Source for Late Babylonian Chronicles 557

- 50 L
0%
I
340-

2-
20

10- I
I

0 1 a
625 600 Y 575 600 Yea 550
A FIG. A 2IeYe at B
FIG.2. Irregularintercalation patterns.

and distribution across reigns. The only obvious shift in TABLE2: Group characteristics
actual dates is between Nabopolassar and the succeed-
Before731 731-601 600-539+
ing kings. Between reigns, there are thus no important
differences in the aimed-for beginning of the year after n of cases 3 37 61
Nabopolassar. Minimum* -7 3 19
New Year'sdates are again plotted as a function of time Maximum* 12 46 61
in figure 2A; connecting lines pointing upwardsrepresent
Range 19 43 42
years with an intercalarymonth. There are three series of
unusually frequent intercalations(bold lines) markedO, Mean* 2.667 25.730 39.770
0, and (. The overlaid inverse squareddistance smooth Median* 3 25 39
(dotted line) shows that only the series (b)-in the imme- Standard 9.504 10.700 10.309
diate vicinity of Nebuchadnezzar'saccession-had a last- Deviation
ing effect on the average beginning of the year. ( and 0
Variance 90.333 114.480 106.208
produced short-term fluctuations only. There are thus
only two groups during the time of the Neo-Babylonian Normal - yes yes
empire. The boundary between these groups falls per Distribution
definitionembetween 601 and 600. Intercalations/ -8 -7 -7
Group Boundaries in the Pre-EmpireSample. In order 19 years
to find an appropriatesubdivision of the data between
748-626, the numberof intercalationsbetween years be- * days from March 1
fore 626 for which the Julianequivalent of Nisannu 1 can +
excluding the outlier date in 564
be inferredfrom eclipse texts was calculated accordingto
the procedure proposed above. The results are summa-
rized in table 1. The ratio of intercalationsper year was
calculated for periods of at least 15 years and extrapo- parable values (>8) only at the group boundarybetween
lated to 19 years. After 731 the extrapolatedvalues group 601-600. Thus, in the pre-empire sample as well, there
aroundthe ideal ratio of 7 intercalationsper 19 years, in- are two groups separated by a discontinuous shift be-
dicating that intercalation practice was fairly constant tween 747-731.
from the end of Nabopolassar'sreign backwardswell into Relationships between Groups. Between 650 and 600
the eighth century. Only the value of 8.31 for the years there were 18 intercalations,so that a ratio of 6.84 inter-
747-731 deviates considerably.Figure 2B shows the cor- calations per 19 years was maintained(table 1). The two
responding ratios in all periods equal to At = 16 years in adjacentgroups separatedby the sample boundaryat 626
the empire period sample overlaid with a LOWESS- were therefore merged into a single group. Table 2 sum-
smooth (solid curve). The smoothed curve reaches com- marizes the characteristicsof the three remaininggroups.
558 Journal of the American Oriental Society 120.4 (2000)
70 , r
731-601 600-539
60- . set of dates between 731-601, as shown in figure4A. The
50 -
40-
-10
-10 L i I j ! I I
25 20 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 20
Count
FIG.3. Distribution of dates in the two chronologically
later groups.
The two chronologically later groups are sufficiently
large (n > 30) to determine statistically if the differences
between these groups are randomor not, that is, whether
the year 600 indeed marks a boundarybetween two dis-
tinct populationsof New Year'sdates. The data in neither
group deviate significantly from normal distributionand
since the respective variances are approximately equal,
the data meet the requirementsfor a simple parametric
test (figure 3). Calculationof the t-test yielded t = 5.149;
the null-hypothesis that the differences between the two
groups are random could therefore be rejected at p <
0.001, implying thatthe differencesare indeed significant,
and that the grouping criteria as applied to the data were
sound.
The Range of Possible New Year'sDates at Any Point
between 748-539. The rangesof attesteddates (excluding
the outlier in 564) in both groups after 731 are identical
within the errormarginof one day inherentin calculations
of the first visibility of the lunarcrescent. They coincide
roughly with the respective 95%-confidence limits (see
figure 6B). The single outlier in 564 is followed by the
only known instance of two successive intercalations((
in figure 2A), suggesting that the beginning of the year in
564 fell below the accepted range and that a single inter-
calation followed by a regularlunaryear would have pro-
duced another unacceptable New Year's date around
March 17. Thus, the limits defined by the attested dates
seem to reflect quite accuratelythe limits of acceptability
as perceived by the Babylonians themselves. Since the
dataset of the chronologically latest group is complete,
and since there is no contradictory evidence in earlier
I times, the range R = 43 of the New Year'sdates between
600-539 can be projectedas R' = 43 onto the incomplete
group before 731 is not representative(n = 3). Hence, be-
fore 731 no definite statementis possible; between 731-
539, however, the range of possible New Year'sdates on
the Julian scale is -43 days at any given point in time.
DISCUSSION
At closer inspection, the seemingly chaotic intercala-
tion practice before the introductionof the 19-year inter-
calary cycle at the beginning of the fifth century (Aaboe
et al. 1991: 16) reveals itself to have been much more
25
constricted than was hitherto believed: Although there
appears to have been no regular intercalationcycle, the
ideal ratio of -7 intercalations per 19 years was main-
tained even for short periods; there are only two detect-
able exceptions to this rule: between 748-731 and around
600, where an excess intercalationremaineduncompen-
sated for in both cases and, thus, there were two upward
shifts of abouttwo weeks in the averagebeginning of the
Babylonian year. Some caution is called for, however, in
the case of the earliershift between 748-731, because the
informationused in the relevant calculation was derived
from a single tablet, LBAT 1413, the dating of which
is likely but not entirely secure (Sachs and Schaum-
berger 1955: xxxi). Therefore, any extrapolationbeyond
731 must remain somewhat speculative. Nevertheless, it
should at least be noted that what is known of earlier
Babylonian intercalation practice is not necessarily in-
consistent with these results. Even though fluctuations
in the beginning of the year of more thantwo months are
attested in the Old Babylonian period (Hunger 1976-80:
298; Huber 1982), the fragmentarytext of the Old Baby-
lonian letter ABB 1,141 (Kraus 1964), for example, im-
plies that one monthwas felt to be the "normal"range for
dates of annually recurringevents. Month-namesnamed
after agricultural activities point in the same direction,
but may pertain to ideal or past situations only (as evi-
denced during the Ur III period [Landsberger 1949]).
Allowing for dropsbelow this "normal"range that can be
compensatedfor by a single intercalationwithoutproduc-
ing another outlier date after the following regular year
(see comment on ( in figure 2), one would expect a
range of -40 days also in the Old Babylonian period, i.e.,
only about half the attested range. This need not reflect
a discrepancy between fact and theory. Instead, it may
indicate the existence of statistically distinct populations
separatedby discontinuous (and probablydecreed) shifts
in the aimed-forbeginning of the year-analogous to the
situation in the eighth and seventh centuries where dis-
 GERBER:
A CommonSource for Late Babylonian Chronicles
60.-
50 -
40 -
.
S to20-
- *
-10 F -10
800 750 700 650
Year
A B
FIG.4. Determination of ranges.
tinguishing of populations served to reduce the total
range of attesteddates (-2 months) to a range of possible
dates at any given point in time of -43 days.
These results agree with Kugler (1924), but differ from
the picture presented by Huber (1982: 8-10). Huber ar-
gues that whereas the medians of his groups 4, 5, and 6
differ by only a few days, there is an obvious increase in
the.median values of the first three groups. He assumes
his group 1 to be representativefor the time before Nabo-
polassarbecause its median value "agrees almost exactly
with the repeated assertion of the astronomicalcompen-
dium MUL.APIN that puts the spring equinox on Nisan
15" (1982: 9), and consequently the increase in the me-
dian values of groups 2 and 3 is assumed to indicate a
"discontinuous shift made during Nabopolassar'sreign"
(1982: 10). However, this is contradictedby the fact that
between 731-601 a ratio of 7.015 intercalationsper 19
years was maintained (table 1), which suggests that no
shifts during this time remaineduncompensatedfor.
It is certain that Assyria and Babylonia did not always
intercalate simultaneously in the seventh century (e.g.,
Parpola 1983: 381 for the years 668 and 667); however,
to what extent intercalationcustoms differed can only be
guessed at. One might speculate that political autonomy
also triggered greaterdifferences in the beginning of the
year (cf. Reade 1998: 261). Judged in this light, Par-
pola's dating of Assyrian Nisannu 1 in 621 to February9
(1983: 90) is not per se improbable(cf. 1983: 90, n. 184).
Parpola'sreconstructionof the Assyrian calendaris con-
jecturalat some points, but on the whole it certainlyoffers
a very good approximation.The range of Assyrian dates
remains within the Babylonian maximum and minimum
values. Thus, during the second quarterof the seventh
559
60
600-539
50
731-601 1 40
ave 20
* 10
0
before 731
ave = averagevernalequinox
century the aimed-for beginning of the year appears to
have been the same in Babylonia and Assyria. Despite
this coincidence, too little is known of the situation in
Assyria during the rest of the time span in question to
take a general agreement of Babylonian and Assyrian
dates for granted.
In summary,the situation in Babylonia before the last
third of the eighth century seems to agree with the state-
ment in MUL.APIN (Hunger and Pingree 1989) that the
vernal equinox fell on Nisannu 15. Probablyaround730
the aimed-for beginning of the Babylonian year was
shifted some two weeks upwards in relation to the solar
year, so the average New Year'sDay fell shortly before
the vernal equinox. This holds true for the entire seventh
century.Only around600 did a second shift occur, which
pushed the average beginning of the year to about two
weeks after the vernal equinox (figure 4B).
II. EXACT DATES OF CHRONICLE ENTRIES AND OMINOUS
PLANETARY EVENTS
The chronicles documenting the Neo-Babylonian pe-
riod were compiled at approximatelythe same time by the
same people, and, one might think, for the same purpose.
Differences in the kind of informationindividual chroni-
cles contain can therefore be taken to reflect differences
in the natureof the available sources. Diachronically,two
points are noteworthy.
First, for the time before Nebuchadnezzar II, many
entries are dated to the day. In the texts dealing with the
later history of the empire, exact dates are rareand occur
almost exclusively in connection with deaths in the rul-
ing family. Exact dates become more frequent again in
560 Journal of the American Oriental Society 120.4 (2000)
the Persian period. Second, up to and including the time
dealt with in Chron. 2 the selection of mentioned events
appears to be somewhat random, consecutive entries
often exhibiting no historicalconnection, and some being
separatedby several years. From the account of the inci-
dents leading to the fall of Assyria in Chron. 3 onwards,
the sequence of recordedevents forms a much more con-
tinuous narrativeof the militaryhistory of Babylonia and
of importantevents concerning its king. These two points
indicate a difference between older and newer sources,
and suggest that the shift from one kind to the other took
place between 622-616.
In what follows, I test the hypothesis that the earlier
sources were astrologicaltexts, or more precisely, that the
criterionfor inclusion of an event in such a text was not
its historical importancebut the astrological significance
of its date. This would accountfor the prevalenceof exact
dates as well as the seeming disjunction of many of the
recordedevents before the second half of Nabopolassar's
reign.
CRITERIA AND ASSUMPTIONS
My hypothesis will be tested by investigating whether
the association of exact dates in Chrons. 1A, 2, 14, 15, 16
(Grayson 1975) and iB, C (Brinkman 1990) with omi-
nous periods after astrologically important celestial
events is significantly higher than can be explained as
random coincidence. For a celestial event to be consid-
ered diagnostic in this study, the following criteria must
be met: a) It must be unpredictable for late eighth and
seventh century astronomy, but computable using mod-
ern algorithms. This is necessary in order to avoid an
artifact (false positive correlation) reflecting political
decisions taken in anticipationof an ominous event. b) It
must be observable in statistically relevant numbersdur-
ing the roughly 150 years in question;thereforeit must be
well-defined for a class of bodies, notjust for one specific
staror planet. c) The Babyloniancriteriondeterminingits
ominousness must be known and quantifiable.
Mesopotamianastrology did not systematically distin-
guish astronomicalfrom atmosphericphenomena. While
many of the former are computablewith accuracy over a
significant time span applying modern methods, the lat-
ter are generally unpredictable, and thus do not fulfill
the first criterion. Information concerning the passing
of a planet throughthe lunar halo, for example, is irrel-
evant. Another example of an event that does not meet
the first criterion is lunar eclipses, which could to a lim-
ited extent be predicted(Rochberg-Halton1988: 40-43).
Ominous positions of a specific moving body in rela-
tion to a specific star or constellation appear frequently
in astrological omina, but these events are too rare to be
useful in the present study. They do not meet the second
criterion. While a broad definition that includes a suffi-
cient number of such events can be found, the resulting
multitude of criteria of ominousness cannot be brought
under the same heading and vice versa. Such broadly
defined events do not meet the third criterion. Nor does
the apparentcoloring and magnitude of stars and planets
(Reiner and Pingree 1981: 18-20). While the texts pro-
vide informationon the portentof these factors, they are
not quantifiable.
The only celestial events treated in reports and omina
that do meet the three criteriaare close approachesof two
or more planets. Although different distances provoked
differentinterpretations,1 KUS3 is the maximumattested
distance that seems to have been consideredclose enough
to be significant (SAA 8 [= Hunger 1992] 500). Assum-
ing an ecliptic or equatorial coordinate system, Fatoohi
and Stephenson (1997-98) found a value of 2.2? angu-
lar separationfor 1 KUS3. The bulk of deviating values
lies within an estimated range of +.3? in either case. The
equivalent in degrees of 1 KUS3 was found by the same
authorsto have been constant from at least the sixth cen-
turyon. Since there is no contradictoryevidence in earlier
texts, the same value is here assumed to be valid for the
eighth and seventh centuries.
In late Babylonian observational texts distances be-
tween two planets or a planet and a star are sometimes
specified by giving a direction ("above,""below,"etc.) or
even two coordinatespresumablyroughly at right angles.
Where distances are mentioned in astrological reports,
however, there are, with a single exception (SAA 8 489),
no such specifications (LAS 47 [= Parpola 1970] 142;
SAA 8 82, 500), and it is thereforenot known whether in
the context of pre-Persianastrology these distances were
measured or estimated as projections onto a coordinate
grid or directly as the distance between the two points in
question. No assumption is made here in this respect.
There does not seem to be a fundamentaldifference in
the way Babylonianastrology treatedclose approachesof
two planets and of a planet relative to a star, and since
stars could stand for planets in many contexts, it is as-
sumed that the period during which the ominous portent
of a planetary approachwas expected to manifest itself
on earth,its adannu, was 30 days, as in the case of omens
involving stars (SAA 8 399, 414).
In summary, ominous planetary approaches were not
predictableby late eighth- and seventh-centuryastronomy
(LAS 47), but are computable using modern algorithms.
They happen frequently enough to be statistically rele-
vant, and the criterion of ominousness (<1 KUS3) is
known and, cum grano salis, quantifiable(figure 5).
 A Common Source for Late Babylonian Chronicles
GERBER:
Prediction of
Babylonian Ominous planetaryevent
Astrology:
lo 4 1
30 Days
I 0 t 4
Prediction of .t
Hypothesis: Expected planetary approach <2.5?
FIG.5. Prediction of proposed hypothesis.
MATERIAL AND METHODS
Two independent databases provided the material
used in this study.
Database A: Chronicle Dates. Doubtful cases ex-
cluded, the chronicles examined contain 52 exact dates.
Their Julian equivalents were determined according to
the chartin figure6A, which was inferredfrom the results
presented in the previous section (summarized in figure
6B): The possible beginning of each Babylonian month
in question was determinedby calculating new moons in
a period equal in length but shifted two days backwards
relative to the correspondingbracketedperiod to account
for the lag between new moon and the first visibility of
the crescent. Because the examined range is longer than
one month, there are two new moons in about 55% of the
cases, a single one in about 45%. Takinginto account the
restrictionsimposed by known intercalations(figure 6C),
however, the percentage of precisely determinedbegin-
nings of monthscould be increasedto -65% in our sample.
The possible Julian equivalents of the Babylonian dates
were then found by adding the necessary numberof days.
Dates that are equal within the errormarginof one day
introducedby the uncertaintyof the first visibility of the
lunar crescent were merged into a single database entry
(e.g., Chrons. 14:36 and 16:7). In the case of two almost
identical series of five dates each in the years Esarhaddon
5 to 8 (Chron. 1 A:IV 5, 10, 16, 18, 22 and Chron. 14:13,
16, 20, 22, 24), two pairs of dates differing by two and
three days, respectively, were also merged because the
561
Expected manifestationof portent
0 4
? I T0 4>
Julianequivalentof exact date
in Chronicle
similarity of the two series spanningthe same three years
suggests a selection criterioncommon to both. If the cor-
responding dates in the two series were treated as inde-
pendent entries, coincidence or non-coincidence with the
examined kind of ominous planetary event would affect
16% of the sample in the same way and bias the results.
The final database of chronicle dates contained 44
entries with a total of 59 possible Julian equivalents
(columns 1-5 in table 3); each entry was assigned to a
group (column 7 in table 3): Babylonian dates with a
single possible Julian equivalent belong to group 1,
those with two possible Julian equivalents to group 2.
Database B: OminousPlanetary Approaches. A com-
puterized search between 750-600 for all approaches <
2.5? angularseparationof two or more of the five planets
visible to the unaided eye was performed (Location:
Babylon, P = 1013 hPa, T = 10?C). Separation was cal-
culated as the distance between the two bodies, which
entails that about one-fifth of the cases that might qualify
as ominous if projected onto a coordinate grid were not
taken into account (figure 7). However, such a procedure
has the advantage that, in the absence of evidence, it
avoids guesswork concerning the Babylonian method of
measurementin the eighth and seventh centuries. Since
the whole population is affected to an equal degree, this
has no effect on the statistical comparison of samples.
Determinationof the Number of Chronicle Dates Co-
inciding with Ominous Periods. The series of planetary
events containedin databaseB was used to find planetary
approaches< 2.5? angular separationwithin the 30 days
 TABLE 3: Synopsis of data
PossibleJulianequivalentsof Planetary app
New Moons within possible Babylonian date (DIMlY separation) vi
range (DIMY[Julian,BC]) [BC]+J/-0 D) Examined time span~' from Babylond
Source bold = date coincides with preceding latest psbl. (eventsvisibleo
No. (Chron....) date (DIMlY) (.) restrictions adannu Julian equivalent favorable" con

25/X/Shalmaneser 0 2/12/727 29/12/727

1 I1A:1I27 60+2 D 2
3 1/12/727 27/1/726
12/X/Shalmaneser5 17/12/722 31/12/722
2 1 A: 131 60+2 D 2 Ju
15/1/72 1 29/1/721
3 1 A: 14' 22/VII/Sargon 1115
22/9/707 16/10/707
60+2 D 2
1 B: 1118' 22/10/O70 15/11/n70
4 1 A: 1146 1
16f1V/Nergal-ugezib 20/6/693 8/7/693 30+2 D M
17/9/693 20/9/693 2
5 1 A: 1148 INII/Nergal-uiezib 1 60+2 D M
17/10/693 20/10/693
2
6 1 A:1III3 17/9/693 26/9/693
7NI1/Nergal-ulezib 1 60+2 D M
17/10/693 26/10/693
2
7 1 A: 1116 1
26NIVIINergal-uiezib
17/9/693 15/10/693
60+2 D
1 B: 1113' 17/10/693 14/11/693 M
2
8 1 A:1III13 9/7/692 28/7/692
17/V/Mugezib-Marduk
4 60+2 D V
8/8/692 27/8/692
2
9 1 A:1III19 10/3/689 27/3/689
15/1/Muiezib-Marduk
4 60+2 D
9/4/689 26/4/689
2
10 1/11/689 4/11/689
I1A:1III22 4
1/IX/Mugezib-Marduk 60+2 D V
1/12/689 4/12/689
2
11 1 A:1III25 29/1/688 17/2/688
4
17/XIIIMugezib-Marduk 60+2 D
27/2/688 18/3/688
12 1 A:1III28 3/IV/"Noking" 8 8/6/68 1 13/6/681 30+2 D M
13 1 A:1III30 4/9/68 1 29/9/68 1
23NVIII"No
king" 8 60+2 D 2
4/10/681 29/10/681
14 1 A:1III34 2/12/68 1 24/12/681
20/X/"No king"8 60+2 D 2
1/1/680 23/1/680
15 30/1/680 3/2/680
1 A:1III37 2/XlII"No king"8 60+2 D 2
1/3/680 5/3/680
16 1 A: IV 5 5
2NVII/Esarhaddon 9/9/676 13/9/676
14: 13 30+2 D
17 1 A: IV 10 30/8/675 8/9/675
6
5;7N/VlEsarhaddon 60+4 D 2
14: 16 31/7675 8/10/675
18 1 A: IV 16 5;8/XlllEsarhaddon7 13/2/673(X112:672) 23/2/673 30+5 D 1
14: 20
19 1 A: IV 18 7
10O/XlllEsarhaddon 13/2/673(X112:672) 25/2/673 30+2 D 1
14: 22
20 1 A: IV 22
5;6/XlllEsarhaddon8 1/2/672 (XI12:672) 9/2/672 30+3 D 1
14: 24
21 1 A:IV 24 3/IV/Esarhaddon10 18/6/671 23/6/671 30+2 D 1 M
22 1 A:IV 24 16/IV/Esarhaddon10 18/6/671 6/7/671 30+2 D 1 M
23 1 A:IV 24 18/IV/Esarhaddon10 18/6/671 8/7/671 30+2 D 1 M
24 1 A:IV 26 22f1V/Esarhaddon10 18/6/671 12/7/671 30+2 D 1

25 1 A: IV 31 12
IONVIII/Esarhaddon 22/10/669(V12: 670) 3/11/669 30+2 D 1
1 C: IV 12'
26 1 A:IV 38 0
20/X ~amag-gum-ukin 9/12/668 3 1/12/668 30+2 D 1
14: 39
9/7/692 19/7/692
27 1 B: III 11' 1
8NV/Mugezib-Marduk 60+2 D 2 V
8/8/692 18/8/692
28 2: 4 12/VINabopolassar0 30/8/626 13/9/626 30+2 D 1 V
29 2:10 12/VllNabopolassar0 28/9/626 12/10/626 30+2 D 1 V
30 2:14 26/VIII/Nabopolassar0 28/10/626 25/11/626 30+2 D 1 V
31 2:18 17/1/Nabopolassar1 23/3/625 11/4/625 30+2 D 1
32 2: 20 21/1I/Nabopolassar1 22/4/625 15/5/625 30+2 D 1 V
33 2: 22 9NV/Nabopolassar1 19/7/625 30/7/625 30+2 D 1 V
34 2: 29 15NIlllNabopolassar3 25/9/623 12/10/623 30+2 D 1
35 14:24 18/XII/Esarhaddon8 1/2/672(XI12: 672) 21/2/672 30+2 D 1
36 14: 26 3/VII/Esarhaddon10 15/9/671 (V12:670) 20/9/671 30+2 D 1 M
14: 36
37 0
24;25f111amag-gum-ukin 16/4/668 13/5/668 30+3 D 1
16: 7
M
38 15:1 6
1/XI/Aggur-nadin-gumi 25/1/693 28/1/693 30+2 D I
M
39 15:2 12NVII/amag-gum-ukin 4 26/9/664 10/10/664 30+2 D I
40 15:6 8/XL&~ma9-9um-ukin 16 10/1/651 (V12:651) 20/1/65 1 30+2 D I
41 15:7 9NVIA/amag-gum-ukin 17 4/9/65 1 15/9/651 30+2 D I
42 15: 19 1 1/1V/amai,-gum-ukin18 26/6/650 9/7/650 30+2 D I
43 16: 11 19/X/Aamag-gum-ukin16 12/12/652(V12: 651) 2/1/65 1 30+2 D I
44 16: 13 27/XI1/amag-gum-ukin16 10/3/651(VT2:651) 8/4/651 30+2 D I M
 A: Examined Range:
NormalyearsandleapyearswithXII2:-95% -CIassumingnormaldistribution
LeapyearswithVI2:inferred
XII2:inferred

V T

January i B: Distribution of Nisanu 1 (1/I)

S---- 1/XI 731-601 600-539

70
February
60....

50
50 g
March q

30
30 |
April
.20.
10 ......... Q
10
May 750 700 650 600 600 580 56(
1/III Year Year
C: Restrictions
June attestedorreasonablyinferredintercalations
between731-626:
1/IV LBAT1413-1417(see table1)
Parpola1982
BrinkmanandKennedy1983
July
1/V

August
1/VI1

1/VI2 preceding each of the possible Julian equivalents of the

September exact dates in groups 1 and 2. An allowance of two addi-
tional days was made in order to account for the uncer-
1/VII tainty involved in the determinationof the beginning of
October the month (see column 6 in table 3). The visibility of each
event was then assessed subjectively on the basis of com-
1/VIII puter simulations (XEphem 3.1?) by an experienced
observer (K. Locher) well acquaintedwith visibility con-
November ditions in the Near East. Eventsjudged visible only under
"ideal" or "very favorable" conditions were eliminated.
1/IX Takingthe experienced observer'sassessment as a guide-
line, the series of planetaryevents between 750-600 con-
December tained in databaseB was then processed in the same way
by the author.The resulting series is referredto as group
1/X 3. Assessments were compared where the three groups
overlap.
FIG.6. Determination of equivalents of Babylonian The atmospheric extinction Ez corresponding to the
dates between 731-626. lower limits of the categories "ideal,""very favorable,"
 GERBER:A Common Source for Late Babylonian Chronicles
1.77?
2.50
E=2.5?
)i
540
FIG.7. Different methods of measuring distance.
and "good visibility conditions"was estimatedin orderto
facilitate evaluationby others. The estimate was based on
roughly averaged limiting magnitudes set in relation to
elongation from the sun and the angle between ecliptic
and horizon.
Non-statistical Assessment. A comparison of the per-
centages of dates coinciding with the periodduringand 30
days after an ominous planetaryevent in groups 1, 2, and
3 allowed a first, very crude assessmentof the hypothesis:
In a random sample of dates between 750-600 the per-
centage of coincidences can be expected to be equal to the
percentagein group 3 which representsthe population.If
the criterion for recording a political event in the source
texts was indeed the astrological significance of its date,
then the percentage of coincidences in group 1 should be
higher than in group 3. Half of the possible dates in
group 2 accurately represent the source texts, the other
half are necessarily inaccurate and can only randomly
coincide with ominous periods; group 2 should therefore
fall between groups 1 and 3. In short, the hypothesis pre-
dicts the succession percentageGroupl>
percentageGroup2>
percentageGroup3. If the hypothesis were wrong, the per-
centages in all groups should be roughly equal, i.e.,
percentageGroupl _ percentageGroup2percentageGroup3.
Testing the Hypothesis. The hypothesis that the
sources of the examined chronicles are astrological texts
cannot be tested directly. Instead, the probabilitythat the
corresponding null-hypothesis is correct must be calcu-
565
Approximationassumingorthogonality
(closeto 0-Latitude):
B: Angularseparation: E
Longitudinaldifference: 4(E2/2)
AC: Angularseparation: E12
difference: E
Longitudinal
.
r^4+ Planet
- Coordinate
system
Angularseparation
; < 2.5?
lated. The null-hypothesis predicts that the exact dates in
the examined chronicles coincide randomly with omi-
nous periods. Because group 3 representsthe population
of which groups 1 and 2 are samples, the percentage of
dates coinciding with ominous periods in group 3 is also
the objective probability p that one randomly chosen
date between 750-600 falls into such a period.
Any bias in favor of the hypothesis possibly inherent
in the assessment of event visibility in group 3 was elim-
inated by accepting a range of probabilities as random
coincidence. The upper limit of that range was defined
independently of group 3: PGroup2= Pupperlimit because
if the hypothesis is wrong PGroup2= Prandom,and if it is
right PGroup2> Prandom-Consequently, assuming no speci-
fic outcome PGroup2> Prandom-Thus, the range of Prandom
is definedby Pobjective
' Prandom limitThe probabil-
' Pupper
ity P that a given numberx (= numberof coincidences)
out of n (= number of possible Julian equivalents)
randomly chosen dates between 750-600 falls within
an ominous period was calculated assuming binominal
distribution:
Eni
(4) Pn(x) = [xj pX(1-p)n-x
P was determined for group 1, i.e., the representative
sample. The significance limit below which the null-
hypothesis can be rejected was set at P = 0.05. Values of
P < 0.02 were consideredhighly significant.
566 Journal of the American Oriental Society 120.4 (2000)
TABLE4: Assessment of visibility
Categories Used in Estimated Atm. Extinction Eo
Subjective Assessment (lower limit of categories)
"goodvisibility" 0.35
"veryfavorablevisibility" 0.22
"idealvisibility" 0.11
RESULTS
Assessment of the Visibility of Individual Planetary
Events. The agreement between the subjective assess-
ments of visibility by the experienced observer(events in
groups 1 and 2) and by the author(events in group 3) was
100% where the two series overlap. In table 4 estimated
values of atmosphericextinction at Zenith (E0) and at 10?
above the horizon (Amv) correspondingto the lower lim-
its of the categories "ideal,""very favorable,"and "good
visibility conditions"are given for 1013 hPa and 10?C. A
more common categorization (Wieschnewski 1993: 31-
32) is added for comparison.
Coincidence of ChronicleDates and OminousPeriods.
The planetary events that were not eliminated are listed
in table 3 (columns 8 and 9): 21 out of the total of 59 pos-
sible Julian equivalents of the examined chronicle dates
in database A coincide with the adannu of an ominous
planetary approach (35.6%). The results for individual
groups are shown in figure 8A: in group 1 the ratio is 13
out of a total of 29, in group 2 it is 8 out of 30. Group 3,
representing the population between 750-600, shows a
ratio of 11751 days coinciding with ominous periods out
of a total of 54787 days. The succession of percentages
from highest to lowest fits the predictionof the hypothe-
sis: percentageGroupl, 44.8% > percentageGroup2 26.7%
> percentageGroup3 21.5%.
TestResults. Figures 8A and B illustrate the relation-
ship between the number of coincidences relative to the
total numberof dates and the probabilityp that one ran-
domly chosen date coincides with an ominous period after
an approach< 2.5? angularseparationof two or more of
the five planets visible to the unaided eye. From group 3,
representing the population, a value Pobjective= 0.215 was
inferred.The upperlimit of the range of accepted values
for randomprobabilitywas inferredfrom group 2: Pupper
limit= 0.267. The range of accepted probabilitiesp that a
randomdate between 750-600 coincides with an ominous
period (figure 8B) is thus defined by 0.215 < Prandom ' Eliminating all events judged visible only under
0.267. In figure 9, the probabilityP that a given number
x out of n randomly chosen dates between 750-600 co-
incides with an ominous period in a sample of the size of
group 1, n = 29, is plotted against the numberof coinci-
dences x. In group 1 the numberof coincidences is x =13.
Amvat 10? above Horizon
Amv= Eo [(I/cos z)-l]; z = 80 Wieschnewski1993:
1.67 -"leichteTruebung"
0.99 -"sehrklareLuft"
0.52
The dashed area representsthe range of accepted proba-
bilities Prandom,delimited by the curves representing
and Pupper
limit-At the interceptwith x = 13 the
Pobjective
probability Pn(x)randomranges between
Pn(x)upper limit= 0.017
= 2.96.10-3
Pn(X)objective
Therefore, the null-hypothesis that the coincidence is
random can be rejected at P < 0.02. Q. E. D.
DISCUSSION
The results in this study clearly supportthe proposed
hypothesis. With the limits of significanceand high signi-
ficance set at standardlevels, the amountof exact eighth-
and seventh-centurydates preservedin the chronicles and
coinciding with astrologically ominous periods cannot be
explained as a random phenomenon. The results are
highly significant for the whole range of possible values
Prandom (figure 9). There are two main sources of uncer-
tainty:the subjectivityin the assessment of event visibil-
ity, and the small sample size of group 1.
A simple subjective assessment of event visibility was
chosen for lack of a truly objective alternative. A pen-
dant to group 3, for example, can easily be generated by
filtering database B using algorithms based on limiting
contrast for naked eye visibility (Clark 1990: 7-12) ex-
pressed as the ratio of backgroundbrightnessto apparent
magnitude (Walker 1987: 47-52). While this method is
objective in itself, the values of most parametersneeded
to calculate airmass and sky brightness cannot be deter-
mined objectively: they have to be guessed and thus the
outcome is no less subjective but more difficult to eval-
uate. The problem of subjectivity cannot at present be
resolved. By defining an (unlikely) upperlimit of Prandom
independentlyof group 3, however, the possibility of a
bias in favor of the hypothesis was reducedto a minimum.
"ideal"or "very favorable"conditions may appearsome-
what pessimistic, especially in view of the mean duration
of such an event, around6-7 days, which of course in-
creases the probabilityof detection. However, bearing in
mind thatthe "proverbialbrillianceof the Babyloniansky
 GERBER:
A Common Source for Late Babylonian Chronicles 567

0.30>
Pupr limit
- 0.25-
'.Prann&n

0.20 Pobjecti
1 2
Groups
A B

FIG.8. Relationship between percentage of coincidences and Prandom

x=13
0.2

Pn(x) 0.1

Significancelimitp = 0.05

Purnit -= 0.017
0 Pobjiv = 2.96-10-3

FIG.9. Determination of the probability that the number of coincidences in Group 1 is random.

is more a literaryclich6 than an actual fact" (Neugebauer
1969: 98)-most of all for observations near the hori-
zon-the resulting picture should as a whole be realistic.
As for the second source of uncertainty,group 1 con-
tains only those Babylonian dates whose Julian equiva-
lents can be determined with reasonable certainty. The
accepted range of possible beginnings of each month in
question correspondsroughly to the 95% confidence in-
terval assuming normal distributionof the attested dates
(figure6B). However, since in the whole sampleof known
568 Journal of the American Oriental Society 120.4 (2000)
beginnings of the year between 750-539 only a single
outlier is attested, the odds are good that all Julian dates
in group 1 are accurate. The problem, then, lies not so
much in accuracy but in the relatively small size of the
sample: n = 29, which is at the lower limit of what can
safely be considered representative.The situation is irre-
mediable, but not overly grave since testing for binomi-
nal distributionis comparativelyefficient even for small
samples.
Despite these two caveats, the methods used in this
study seem fairly robust and the results of the final test
are unlikely to be grossly aberrant:the long-sought "com-
mon source" of the late Babylonian chronicles dealing
with the eighth and seventh centuries was in all proba-
bility a corpus of astrological texts.
Interestingly,the source texts do not seem to reflect the
practice of contemporaneous astrology: the number of
coincidences in group 1 (44.8%), exceeding the random
value (21.5-26.7%) by about 20% (figure 8A), is out of
proportionwith the relatively minor importanceattached
to such events in the reportsand letters. Instead, we may
have to deal with lists recordingthe political events coin-
ciding with the adannu of one specific kind of celes-
tial phenomenon,irrespectiveof its canonicalimportance.
Such a list may even be partly preserved in Chron. 2,
whereVenusfiguresin all of the five planetaryapproaches
associated with a chronicle date (table 3, entries 28-34).
Chronicles dealing with later times were compiled
from texts of a differentnature.It might prove interesting
BIBLIOGRAPHY
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A. J. Sachs. 1991. Saros Cycle Dates and Related Babylo-
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American Philosophical Society.
Brinkman, J. A. 1990. The Babylonian Chronicle Revisited.
In Lingering Over Words:Studies in Ancient Near Eastern
Literature in Honor of William L. Moran, ed. T. Abusch et
al. Pp. 73-104. Atlanta: Scholars Press.
Brinkman, J. A. and D. A. Kennedy. 1983. Documentary Evi-
dence for the Economic Base of Early Neo-Babylonian
Society: A Survey of Dated Babylonian Economic Texts
721-626 B.c. JCS 35: 1-90.
Clark, R. N. 1990. Visual Astronomy of the Deep Sky. Cam-
bridge: Cambridge Univ. Press.
Drews, R. 1975. The Babylonian Chronicles and Berossus.
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Fatoohi, L. J., and F R. Stephenson. 1997-98. Angular Mea-
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to examine whether the disappearance of the astrologi-
cal source texts is chronologically and causally linked
with the abandonmentof traditionalcelestial divination,
which must have occurred somewhere between 600-300
(Rochberg-Halton1984), and whether there is a connec-
tion with the onset of predictivemathematicalastronomy,
which may well have reached a certain level of sophisti-
cation prior to the Seleucid period, despite the absence of
unequivocal textual evidence (Aaboe et al. 1991). How-
ever, the historicalimplicationsof this shift in the sources
are beyond the scope of this study. What remains to be
pointed out here is the necessity of diachronicdifferenti-
ation: while the chronicles recording political events
from the time around the fall of Assyria onwards may
indeed have been compiled as historiographical texts
from historiographicalsources, this has been shown here
to be unlikely for earlier times. The assumption of the
contrarymight introducefatal errorsin reconstructionsof
early Neo-Babylonian history.
A direct dependenceof the chronicles on the astronom-
ical diaries (Grayson 1975; van Seters 1982; Hauser 1995)
can safely be ruled out for the time before the second half
of Nabopolassar'sreign. Nevertheless, Grayson'sscheme
may be valid in a slightly revised form: since both the
astrological source texts and the diaries depend on the
same kind of observational and historical information,
they may themselves have been compiled from a (very
heterogeneous) source common to both, possibly the hy-
pothetical "runningaccount of Mesopotamianhistory."
Gerber, M. 1998. Die Inschrift H(arran)l.A/B und die neu-
babylonische Chronologie. ZA 88: 72-93.
Grayson, A. K. 1975. Assyrian and Babylonian Chronicles.
Texts from Cuneiform Sources, vol. 5. Locust Valley,
N.Y.: J. J. Augustin.
Hauser, S. R. 1995. Siehst du die Zeichen an der Wand? Zum
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