M A R K E T B E AT

Fredericksburg, VA
Retail Q1 2020

YoY 12-Mo. ECONOMY: Unemployment Remains Low Prior to the Impacts of COVID-19
Chg Forecast
After the longest expansion in U.S. history, the global pandemic caused by COVID-19 is causing many businesses to close
$84.3k and furlough or reduce payrolls. Retail, travel, and hospitality sectors are being hit the hardest after the government halted
any non-essential businesses. The Fredericksburg region, in particular Stafford County, benefits from continued demand for
Median HH Income
Defense Department contractors near Quantico Marine Corps Base. Regional unemployment remains low, ending the
quarter at 3.0%, slightly up from 2.9% a year ago but still below the national average of 3.6%. Forecasts remain uncertain,
0.7% but record unemployment claims will begin to impact the local economy in the second quarter.
Population Growth

SUPPLY AND DEMAND: Steady Leasing Activity to Begin the Year

2.7% The vacancy rate lowered in the beginning of 2020, slightly decreasing from 4.6% in the fourth quarter of 2019 to 4.4% at the
Unemployment Rate
close of 2020’s first quarter. While absorption lowered, demand remained steady throughout the quarter. Several leases were
Source: BLS (Economic Indicators are signed during this period. The two largest leases signed were Big Lots, signing a 36,815 square foot (sf) lease at 736
representative of specific county or MSA.)
Warrenton Road in Stafford, and Better Appliances, signing a 10,668 sf lease at 4501-4515 Jefferson Davis Hwy in
Spotsylvania. There were several retail properties sold in the beginning of 2020, with the largest sales coming from 2941
U.S.ECONOMIC INDICATORS Plank Road, a 6,100-sf property in Fredericksburg that sold for $3.4M, and 10000 Southpoint Pkwy, a 4,400-sf property in
Q1 2020 Spotsylvania that sold for $2.7M. Both small businesses and national retailers felt the effects of COVID-19. The
YoY 12-Mo. Fredericksburg market saw several brick and mortar store temporarily close during the first quarter of 2020 in response to the
Chg Forecast ongoing crisis.
0.9%
GDP Growth PRICING: Asking Rents Still Steady
Retail rental rates have increased with limited availabilities, starting 2020 at $17.80 per square foot (psf) per year. This
compares to an average rate of $17.24 psf during 2019. The city of Fredericksburg still had the highest rental rate this
4.2% quarter, increasing from $19.04 psf in the fourth quarter to $19.33 psf. King George County also saw a slight increase
during this period, while Spotsylvania County and Stafford County showed a small decrease. Caroline County remained the
Consumer Spending
Growth same since last quarter.

2.6% RENT / VACANCY RATE AVAILABILITY BY PRODUCT TYPE

Retail Sales Growth 46%
$20.0 6%
40%
$18.0
5%
Source: BEA, Census Bureau $16.0

$14.0
4%
$12.0 12%

$10.0 3%
2016 2017 2018 2019 Q1 2020 2%

Neighborhood & Strip Mall Power Center

Asking Rent, $ PSF Overall Vacancy Rate Community
M A R K E T B E AT

Fredericksburg, VA
Retail Q1 2020
MARKET STATISTICS
OVERALL AVAILABLE YTD NET OVERALL OVERALL AVERAGE ASKING
SUBMARKET INVENTORY (SF) INVENTORY YTD LEASING ACTIVITY OVERALL VACANCY RATE UNDER CNSTR
VACANT SPACE (SF) ABSORPTION RENT*
Caroline County 90 661,740 0 18,986 2.9% 0 0 $7.34
Fredericksburg City 540 5,494,789 22,362 172,746 3.1% (8,745) 18,620 $19.33
King George County 108 966,893 0 48,909 5.1% (2,242) 0 $16.65
Spotsylvania County 512 8,987,219 51,819 423,076 4.7% (22,723) 20,000 $17.77
Stafford County 460 5,321,575 47,284 272,282 5.1% 13,884 78,878 $17.18
FREDERICKSBURG TOTALS 1,710 21,432,216 121,465 935,999 4.4% (22,917) 117,498 $17.80

*Rental rates reflect NNN asking $PSF/Year

KEY LEASE TRANSACTIONS Q1 2020 JONATHAN KOES

PROPERTY SUBMARKET TENANT SF TYPE
Research Manager
736 Warrenton Road Stafford Big Lots 36,815 Direct +1 804 697 3560
4501-4515 Jefferson Davis Hwy Spotsylvania Better Appliances 10,668 Direct jonathan.koes@thalhimer.com
4256-4276 Plank Road Spotsylvania Your Hobby Place 8,491 Direct
4113-4153 Plank Road Spotsylvania Burn Boot Camp 6,792 Direct
922 Caroline Street Fredericksburg Backdoor Gallery 5,500 Direct
*Renewals included in leasing statistics
thalhimer.com

KEY SALES TRANSACTIONS Q1 2020

PROPERTY SUBMARKET SELLER / BUYER SF PRICE / $ PSF A CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD RESEARCH PUBLICATION
Cushman & Wakefield (NYSE: CWK) is a leading global real
10500 Spotsylvania Ave Spotsylvania James Jarrell; Sareen Realty, Inc/ Sareen 6,464 $1.6M / $248
Realty, Inc
estate services firm that delivers exceptional value for real
estate occupiers and owners. Cushman & Wakefield is among
2941 Plank Road Fredericksburg Marcus & Millichap, Inc./ Hillbrook Real Estate 6,100 $3.4M / $567
the largest real estate services firms with approximately
10000 Southpoint Pkwy Spotsylvania Calkain Companies, LLC/ Sands Investment 4,400 $2.7M / $629 51,000 employees in 400 offices and 70 countries. In 2018,
Group, LLC the firm had revenue of $8.2 billion across core services of
1891 Carl D. Silver Pkwy Fredericksburg CBRE/ 3,574 $2.4M / $687 property, facilities and project management, leasing, capital
markets, valuation and other services.

©2020 Cushman & Wakefield. All rights reserved. The information

contained within this report is gathered from multiple sources believed
to be reliable. The information may contain errors or omissions and is
presented without any warranty or representations as to its accuracy.