Professional Documents
Culture Documents
FMCG Market Analysis
FMCG Market Analysis
Investment Perspective
Security Analysis & Portfolio Management Project
(Under guidance of Prof.PritamShekade)
Contents
FMCG Industry Overview.......................................................................................................................3
Structure and Characteristic of FMCG Industry.....................................................................................5
FMCG Sector Key Drivers.......................................................................................................................7
PEST Analysis.........................................................................................................................................8
FMCG Sector Sensitivity to Business Cycle............................................................................................9
BSE and BSE FMCG Index.....................................................................................................................10
Porter’s Five Force Model Analysis......................................................................................................14
SWOT Analysis.....................................................................................................................................16
Indian Attractiveness...........................................................................................................................17
Prospect & Outlook.............................................................................................................................18
Sources................................................................................................................................................20
2
FMCG Industry Overview
Products which have a quick turnover, and relatively low cost are known
as Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG). FMCG products are those that
get replaced within a year. Examples include a wide range of frequently
purchased consumer products such as toiletries, soap, cosmetics, tooth
cleaning products and detergents, as well as other non-durables such as
glassware, bulbs, batteries, paper products, and plastic goods.
India’s FMCG sector is the fourth largest sector in the economy and
creates employment for more than three million people in downstream
activities and 14 million in total. The sub sectors of FMCG sector are
Household Care, Personal Care and Food & Beverages. On the basis of
price, FMCG goods are divided into three segments- low priced, mid-
priced/ mass or popular and high-priced/ premium end. Typically the lower
segments of the market drive volumes. The premium segment is less
price-sensitive and more brand conscious.
Unlike other sectors, the FMCG industry did not slow down during recent
recession. As it is meeting the every-day demands of consumers, it will
continue to grow. Market share movements indicate that companies such
as Marico Ltd and Nestle India Ltd, with domination in their key
categories, have improved their market shares and outperformed peers in
the FMCG sector. This has been also aided by the lack of competition in
the respective categories. Single product leaders such as Colgate
Palmolive India Ltd and Britannia Industries Ltd have also witnessed
strength in their respective categories, aided by innovations and strong
distribution. Strong players in the economy segment like Godrej Consumer
Products Ltd in soaps and Dabur in toothpastes have also posted market
share improvement, with revived growth in semi-urban and rural markets.
3
Household
Care Lighting
10% 2%
Tobacco
15% Food and
Beverages
53%
Personal
Care
20%
Household Care:
India has an abundant supply of caustic soda and soda ash, the chief raw
materials required in the production of soaps and detergents, which
enables the household section of the industry to excel and grow.
Personal Care
4
growth in rural demand and upgrading to the premium products are the
key drivers for future demand growth in major FMCG categories.
The skin care market is at a primary stage in India. With the change in life
styles, increase in disposable incomes, greater product choice and
availability, people are becoming more alert about personal grooming.
The major players in this segment are Hindustan Unilever with a market
share of 54 per cent, followed by CavinKare with a market share of 12 per
cent and Godrej with a market share of 3 per cent.
The oral care market can be segmented into toothpaste - 60 per cent;
toothpowder - 23 per cent; toothbrushes - 17 per cent. This segment is
dominated by Colgate-Palmolive with market share of 49 per cent, while
HUL occupies second position with market share of ~30 per cent. In
toothpowders market, Colgate and Dabur are the major players.
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expanded their retail chain in the mid-sized towns and villages. On the
contrary to this, Nestle has always targeted the market of urban India and
focuses largely upon the value added products for the elite class or upper
middle class population.
6
Large unorganized sector: The unorganized sector has a presence in
most product categories of the FMCG sector. Small companies from this
sector have used their geographical advantages and regional presence to
reach out to remote areas where large consumer products have only
limited presence. Their low cost structure also gives them an advantage.
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million in 2004 to 140 million in 2007, according to market research
company IMRB. Over 70% sale of FMCG products is made to middle class
households and over 50% of middle class is in rural India.
PEST Analysis
Political
8
Economical
Urbanization: India has 70% of its population living in rural areas. With
rising urbanization, more people will have exposure to modern products
and brands and thus shift to branded and packaged goods and products.
Social
Technology
9
Sensitivity to business cycle
Inflation: High food inflation has an adverse effect on the FMCG industry.
People will spend less money on discretionary items which will hit the
FMCG industry. The food inflation is very high around 12%, and the raw
material cost has increased up to 15 to 20 per cent compared to last year.
The operating margins which are typically about 20 per cent in the last
few years have seen a drop to almost 16 per cent. FMCG is also
dependent on the monsoons. A good monsoon will not give any inflation
worries and also increases the consumption power creating demand for
hair oil, biscuits, soaps, shampoos, laundry, and toilet soaps.
Interest Rates: As many companies are taking debt for their daily
operations, thus increase in interest rate will have adverse effect on the
profitability of FMCG companies
BSE FMCG has base index value of 1000 with base period 01 February, 1999. It is
launched on full market capitalization method and effective August 23, 2004,
calculation method shifted to free-float market capitalization
Return
1
YTD : 20.82% 1 Week 0.80% 6.00% 3 Months: 12.00%
Month:
6 114.50
19.40% 1 Year : 30.50% 2 Year : 53.10% 3 Year :
Months: %
10
The Indian Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) sector is booming from
last several years and given steady returns to its investors despite
slowdown in the economy. FMCG sector has several multinational players
with strong presence in India such as Nestle, Procter and Gamble, Gillette,
etc.
December 2011 and March 2012 quarter results have been pretty good
for the top companies, a major reason for the overvaluation could be
attributed to the current economic scenario. In times of economic
uncertainty, investors tend to flock defensive sectors like FMCG driving up
prices of the companies which seems to be the case with the FMCG sector
currently.
Index Composition
Market
Capitalisation
Company Name (Rscrores) Weight
HUL 99,518.19 23.22
ITC 1,95,890.62 45.7
Nestle 43,543.75 10.16
The index is largely driven by ITC and HUL, as they contribute around 69%
to the total index. Both companies have posted good results, thus helping
the index to grow despite weak domestic market. If both these
companies are excluded then the index comes out to be overvalued by
only 7.82%. Therefore, the index has high dependency on these two
companies.
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FMCG sector is performing well due to strong characteristics and
dependence on consumption in domestic market. The returns table
(above) portraits that it registered lower drop in 2008 i.e. during slowdown
in the economy. The performance of FMCG sector was laggard in 2009
when economy was recovering and major sectors started performing well
contributing to growth in SENSEX. However, performance of BSE FMCG
index in 2010 was outstanding on back of fiscal stimulus but got hit again
in 2011 due to European debt crisis and domestic reasons. In 2011,
SENSEX was volatile and gave negative returns of approx. 25% at end of
year whereas; FMCG is the only sector which gave strong returns of 9% in
2011.
In last 15 months, FMCG sector attracted many investors and gave strong
returns to them. The other sector indices gave negative returns in the
range of 2% to 38% due to slowdown in the economy, high interest rates
and rising inflation
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Safe havens in a bear market
The less cyclical an industry, the better its chances of riding out a
recessive period. Non-cyclical industries have more stable growth rates.
Non-cyclical industries also experience less volatile share prices. They
tend to be low-beta and that's a major advantage if the market-wide trend
is down.
That leaves just FMCG as a safe growth area. By default, it's likely to be
the only counter-cyclical defensive sectoral play. Dabur, ITC and
Hindustan Unilever have already seen outperformance in the recent past.
Colgate, Godrej Consumer and Marico, could all pick up steam even if the
rest of the market gets weaker. There's a case for being seriously over-
weight in the sector.
Peers Comparison
The peer table comprise of some listed FMCG companies in India. The
outperformers among these companies are HUL and ITC with strong
revenue Rs 199,390 mn and Rs 221,598 mn respectively in FY11. The
EBITA margin across the sector has remained in the range of ~15% to
~26.5%. However, EBITDA margin for ITC in FY11 was 37.5%. The
companies HUL and
ITC registered PAT of Rs 23,066 MN and Rs 50,700 MN in FY11.
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FMCG industry, as an investment:
FMCG index has consistently given good return to investors over the
years. Infact, FMCG index has given a return of 12% in 2011 despite
negative returns from Sensex. Going forward, HUL and ITC are expected
to record good performance, which could lead to positive impact on the
valuation of the overall FMCG index. In FY-11, HUL has changed its
business strategy and started focusing on rural market through increase
in ad-spends, new launches and expanding distribution network. As a
result, it posted good results so far and is expected to deliver good results
in coming quarters as well. ITC, market leader in cigarettes, has
benefitted by favourable announcement in the Union Budget-13 wherein
the Government increased the excise duty on bidi and other tobacco
products which could lead to consumers shifting to cigarettes. With
favourable government policies and its focus on growing food processing
category, ITC is expected to post good results in coming years. Thus,
FMCG index, being a defensive sector, will remain a safe bet for investors.
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Porter’s Five Force Model Analysis
15
the intensity of rivalry is very high.
SWOT Analysis
Strengths: Weaknesses:
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networks in both urban and rural areas economies of scale, especially in small
• Presence of well-known brands in FMCG sectors
sector • Low exports levels
• Favourable governmental Policy:
Indian Government has passed the
policies aimed at attaining
international competitiveness
through lifting of the quantitative
restrictions, reducing excise duties,
100 per cent export oriented units
can be set up by government
approval and use of foreign brand
names etc.
• FDI: Automatic investment approval up
to 100 per cent foreign equity or 100 per
cent for NRI and Overseas Corporate
Bodies investment is allowed for most of
the food processing sector except malted
food, alcoholic beverages and those
reserved for small scale industries (SSI).
Opportunities: Threats:
• Untapped rural market, changing life
style • Removal of import restrictions
• Rising income levels, i.e. increase in resulting in
purchasing power of consumers replacing of domestic brands
• Large domestic market with more • Tax and regulatory structure
population o • Rural demand is cyclical in nature
• High consumer goods spending and also depends upon monsoon.
• India is the largest milk producer in the
world, yet only around 15 per cent of the
milk is processed. The organized liquid
milk business is in its infancy and also has
large long-term growth potential. Even
investment opportunities exist in value-
added products like desserts, puddings
etc.
• Only about 10-12 per cent of output is
processed and consumed in packaged
form, thus highlighting the huge potential.
• India is under penetrated in many FMCG
categories as shown in below diagram.
With rise in per capita incomes and
awareness, the growth potential is huge.
• Lower price and smaller packs are also
likely to drive potential up trading for
major FMCG products
• Rural demand etc.
17
Indian Attractiveness
India currently allows 100 per cent FDI in cash and carry segment and 51
per cent in single-brand retail, which is expected to be further increased
to 100 per cent.
India is also expected to allow 51 per cent FDI in multi-brand retail, which
will boost the nascent organised retail market in the country.
Leading players of consumer products have a strong distribution network
in rural India and are looking to capitalise on rising brand consciousness.
Technological advances such as internet and e-commerce would enable
better logistics in these areas.
The consumer story in India makes fast moving consumer goods (FMCG)
space an attractive destination for private equity and venture capital
investors.
Compared to the typical $20-50 million deals that took place in the past
few years, 2012 witnessed one of the largest PE deals in FMCG space with
the Singapore Government owned Temasek Holdings buying a five per
cent stake in Godrej Consumer Products Ltd (GCPL) for Rs 685 crore ($135
million).
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13 per cent (Nestle) to 39 per cent (P&G Hygiene and Health care).
Barring Nestle and Marico, most other companies have seen bottom line
growth between 15 and 35 per cent during the quarter.
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that smaller players would find it difficult to pass on the duty hikes to
end consumers and will chose to take the brunt of this hike in a bid to
maintain and grow market share. On the other hand, deep-pocket
players like Nestle, ITC and HUL with their leadership position and
strong brands will be able to pass on the hike to consumers.
20
Sources:
www.bseindai.com
www.economictimes.com
www.assocham.org
www.in.finance.yahoo.com
www.ibef.org
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