Geomorphology 241 (2015) 371–381

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Geomorphology

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/geomorph

A new–old approach for shallow landslide analysis and susceptibility

zoning in fine-grained weathered soils of southern Italy
Leonardo Cascini a, Mariantonietta Ciurleo a,⁎, Silvio Di Nocera b, Giovanni Gullà c
a
University of Salerno, Italy
b
University of Naples, Federico II, Italy
c
National Research Council, Research Institute for Geo-Hydrologic Protection, Cosenza, Italy

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Rainfall-induced shallow landslides involve several geo-environmental contexts and different types of soils. In
Received 18 June 2014 clayey soils, they affect the most superficial layer, which is generally constituted by physically weathered soils
Received in revised form 9 April 2015 characterised by a diffuse pattern of cracks. This type of landslide most commonly occurs in the form of
Accepted 16 April 2015
multiple-occurrence landslide phenomena simultaneously involving large areas and thus has several conse-
Available online 24 April 2015
quences in terms of environmental and economic damage. Indeed, landslide susceptibility zoning is a relevant
Keywords:
issue for land use planning and/or design purposes.
Shallow landslides This study proposes a multi-scale approach to reach this goal. The proposed approach is tested and validated over
Weathered clays an area in southern Italy affected by widespread shallow landslides that can be classified as earth slides and earth
Triggering stage slide-flows. Specifically, by moving from a small (1:100,000) to a medium scale (1:25,000), with the aid of heu-
Susceptibility ristic and statistical methods, the approach identifies the main factors leading to landslide occurrence and effec-
Multi-scale approach tively detects the areas potentially affected by these phenomena. Finally, at a larger scale (1:5000), deterministic
methods, i.e., physically based models (TRIGRS and TRIGRS-unsaturated), allow quantitative landslide suscepti-
bility assessment, starting from sample areas representative of those that can be affected by shallow landslides.
Considering the reliability of the obtained results, the proposed approach seems useful for analysing other case
studies in similar geological contexts.
© 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
Shallow landslides are one of the most common categories of land-
slides. They frequently involve large areas and different soils in various
climatic zones (e.g., Kirkby, 1987; Benda and Cundy, 1990; Selby, 1993
Antronico et al., 2004; Borrelli et al., in press), and they often cause en-
vironmental and economic damage (Crozier, 2005; Glade et al., 2005)
(Fig. 1). In clayey soils, shallow landslides affect the most superficial
layers of soil, which are generally composed of physically weathered
soils of variable thickness along the slope and are characterised by a spa-
tially diffused and time dependent pattern of cracks (Fig. 2), usually at-
tributed to an alternating process of wetting and drying, insolation and
frost (Blight, 1997; Gullà et al., 2006; Fredlund et al., 2010). Shallow
landslides exhibit different morphometric features depending on their
localisation along the slope, where they have widths ranging from 3 to
15 m and lengths ranging from 10 to 100 m; the sliding surface can
reach depths varying from a few decimetres to 3 m (Rogers and Selby,
1980; Gullà et al., 2004; Crozier, 2005).
Some scientific publications on shallow landslides address hydrolog-
ical, geological and geomorphological aspects (Antronico and Gullà,
⁎ Corresponding author. Tel.: +39 089964329.
E-mail address: mciurleo@unisa.it (M. Ciurleo).
2000; Sorriso-Valvo et al., 2004; Crozier, 2005; Guzzetti, 2008), and
others focus on geotechnical characterisation and numerical modelling
(Eden and Mitchell, 1969; Lim et al., 1996; Eigenbrod and Kaluza,
1999; Claessens et al., 2007). However, in spite of many contributions,
a rational framework able to link the predisposing factors of shallow
landslides at small, medium and large scales has not yet been provided.
This paper is aimed at overcoming this lack of methods by proposing a
so-called “new–old” approach, which is based on classic geological, geo-
morphological and geotechnical analyses, as well as on a new frame-
work allowing for rational and quantitative correlations between
landslide occurrence and regional and local factors in a test area in
southern Italy.
The procedure is based on the following simple ideas: i) the wide
diffusion of shallow landslides in the test area is not casual, being strictly
related to regional factors affecting the morphological evolution of the
slopes, and ii) the limited thickness of these landslides is related to
local factors that cause an increase in soil weathering grade until the in-
stability conditions are reached. The procedure first distinguishes and
quantifies the landslide predisposing factors and regional shallow land-
slide susceptibility at small and medium scales. Once the most prone
areas have been clearly identified, attention is devoted to finding quan-
titative relationships between weathered soil and shallow landslides for
the local level. The proposed procedure applies a general framework

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2015.04.017
0169-555X/© 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
372 L. Cascini et al. / Geomorphology 241 (2015) 371–381
Fig. 1. Multiple rainfall-triggered shallow landslides. (a) Air photo of July 1977, Wairarapa,
North Island, New Zealand (Crozier, 2005); (b) Air photo of events in New Zealand in Febru-
ary 2004 (Hancox and Wright, 2005); (c) 3D view from Google Earth of March 2010, Catan-
zaro, Calabria, Italy; (d) Typical phenomena in a morphological hollow, Catanzaro Graben,
Calabria, Italy.
provided by Fell et al. (2008a) who link the size of the study areas, the
scales of analysis (small, medium and large scale) and the methods of
zoning (heuristic, statistical and deterministic methods), even though
they do not use the proposed framework to solve practical problems.
The usefulness of the framework is addressed by Cascini (2008), who
refers to different geological contexts at different topographic scales as
well as to landslides and soils that are different from those studied in
the present work.
2. Materials and methods
2.1. Study areas
The study area is located in central Calabria, southern Italy, and falls
into two distinct morphostructural sectors named Sectors II and III by
Sorriso-Valvo and Tansi (1996) and characterised by different uplift
Fig. 2. Crack pattern at the soil surface. (a) Spatial distribution of cracks in a soil ploughed
in spring. The numbers indicate the crack depth in centimetres (Meisina, 2006); (b) Cross-
section showing the crack depths (Meisina, 2006); (c) Typical section of weathered soils in
the study area.
rates (Fig. 3). Sector II coincides with the horst-graben system of the
Coastal Chain–Sila Massif, which is characterised by predominantly
N–S faults. The maximum uplift rate in this sector in the last million
years, affecting the Coastal Chain, was approximately 1 mm/y, where-
as the maximum uplift rate in the Sila Massif was 0.8 mm/y (Sorriso-
Valvo and Tansi, 1996). Sector III corresponds to the Catanzaro graben
and is characterised by the Lamezia–Catanzaro fault, with its southern
end at the Maida–Girifalco–Squillace fault line. A 0.2 mm/y uplift rate
was calculated for the Catanzaro graben (Sorriso-Valvo and Tansi,
1996).
Considering that the proposed approach uses a multi-scale analysis, a
gradually smaller reference area is analysed when moving from a small
to large scale (Fig. 3). In particular, at the small scale (1:100,000), the
reference area extends 2000 km2 and falls within the provinces of Ca-
tanzaro and Crotone; to the north, the area borders the Sila horst, to
the south it borders the Serre horst, and to the east and the west it is
delimited by the Ionian and the Tyrrhenian seas, respectively. At the
medium scale (1:25,000), only a portion of the territory in the province
of Catanzaro, extending for 150 km2, is analysed because shallow land-
slides are prevalent there. The borders of this portion are the Sila horst
to the north and the Ionian Sea to the south, and it is delimited to the
east and west by the watersheds of the basins located to the
hydrographical left and right of the Corace and La Fiumarella rivers. Fi-
nally, at the large scale (1:5000), the attention is focused on a morpho-
logical hollow that is chosen, investigated and analysed as being
representative of the studied landslides.
2.2. Data
2.2.1. Geological and morphological data
At the small scale, geological and structural data were obtained by
merging the data available from the structural geological map proposed
Fig. 3. Main morphotectonic structures and uplift rates in Calabria during the Quaternary Era
(from Sorriso-Valvo and Tansi, 1996 modified), and the test areas at different topographic
scales.
 L. Cascini et al. / Geomorphology 241 (2015) 371–381
by Van Dijk and Okkes (1991) (at a 1:100,000 scale), the litho-structural
map proposed by Antronico et al. (2001) (at a 1:50,000 scale), and the
Geological map of Calabria (at a 1:25,000 scale). Through this proce-
dure, a small-scale map of the main lithologies was created, simplifying
the different geological complexes (Fig. 4a). The geo-structural map
373
shows, at the foot of the Serre Massif, the presence of a Palaeozoic crys-
talline basement, while along the pediment linking the Sila Massif and
the sedimentary basins of the Catanzaro graben and the Crotone basin,
discordant sedimentary Miocene rocks unconformably overlie the
Palaeozoic crystalline basement. Upwards, the Miocene succession be-
comes a Plio-Pleistocene post-orogenic sedimentary succession com-
posed of marine deposits originating from the Catanzaro and Crotone
basins (Longhitano et al., 2014; Perri et al., 2014). Specifically, in their
lower portion, these lithotypes consist of thick clay deposits of Pliocene
age (approximately 800 m thick for the Catanzaro basin and 1200 m
thick for the Crotone basin, based on AGIP boreholes), which become
primarily sand deposits of Pleistocene age in the upper portion of
these lithotypes. Pleistocenic terraced deposits of primarily sand and
gravel are found at the end of the succession, are well preserved in the
area of Crotone, become sporadic in the transitional zone between the
Crotone basin and the Catanzaro graben, and then reappear in the
form of preserved terraces in the central part of the Catanzaro graben.
Referring to the main macro-structural elements, at small scale, an
initial NW–SE fault system characterises the northern and southern
boundaries of the study area and delimits the tectonic depression of
the Catanzaro graben. These faults have been overlapped by a second
fault system, NE–SW, which predominates in the transition area be-
tween the Catanzaro and Crotone basins, where a series of terraced
faults dip towards the Ionian Sea. In the Crotone area, a local horst has
been delimited by two shear zones that isolate, identify and preserve
the structural high of Isola Capo Rizzuto (Fig. 4a).
At the medium scale, the outcropping lithologies have been
identified by integrating the Geological map of Calabria and the litho-
structural map proposed by Borrelli et al. (in press) (available at
1:25,000 scale) with aerial photo interpretation and in situ surveys,
thus allowing for the identification and mapping of different geological
units. These units are briefly described from the lowest to highest eleva-
tions as follows: sporadic evidence of Palaeozoic crystalline basement
(schists) and Miocene rocks (conglomerates, sandstones and evaporitic
limestones); Pliocene light blue-grey silty clays partially affected by in-
tercalations of sand and silt; an alternation of Pliocene sands and sand-
stone; and overlying Pleistocene sands, gravels, and brown and red-
brown conglomerates (Fig. 4b). The aerial photograph interpretation
performed by black-and-white images (at 1:33,000 scale), derived
from an IGM flight from 1991, allows us i) to confirm the structural
complexity of the test area, which was already highlighted by Van Dijk
and Okkes (1991) and Tansi et al. (2006), and ii) to distinguish some rel-
evant structural features (Burbank and Anderson, 2001).
At the large scale, the main stratigraphic contacts were obtained
through photograph interpretation and in situ investigations, which
also allowed for the identification of the weathered thickness of soil.
Fig. 4c shows the presence of Pliocene light blue-grey silty clays that
are partially affected, in the upper part of the stratigraphic sequence,
by intercalation of Pliocene sands and sandstones. The rapid evolution
of these phenomena, which undergo substantial morphometric changes
over time, renders the updating of the inventory through traditional
techniques extremely difficult, as testified by the systematic lack of ad-
equate inventory maps in the scientific and technical literature.
With reference to the study area, the only available document was
created on 2001 by the Calabria River Basin Authority at the 1:10,000
scale for residential areas and small villages with more than 200
Fig. 4. The dataset used. (a) The geo-structural map of the study area at small scale
(1:100,000). (b) The geo-structural map of the test area at medium scale (1:25,000); Leg-
end: 1. Holocene alluvial deposits and eolian sands; 2. Pleistocene sands, gravels, brown
and red-brown conglomerates; 3. Pliocene sands and sandstones; 4. Pliocene light blue-
grey silty clays; 5. Miocenic evaporitic limestones; 6. Miocene sandstones and sands; 7. Mio-
cene conglomerates; 8. Paleozoic schists; 9. normal faults; 10. Strike–slip faults; 11. The test
area at large scale. (c) The geological map of the test area at large scale (1:5000). Legend: 1.
Pliocene light blue-grey silty clays; 2. Pliocene sands and sandstones.
374 L. Cascini et al. / Geomorphology 241 (2015) 371–381

Fig. 5. In situ investigations at the TS1, TS2 and TS3 test sites. a) Spatial location; b) boreholes log; c) monitoring stations; d) daily values of rain depth, and pore water pressure measured
by tensiometers (modified after Gullà et al., 2004).

inhabitants, therefore underestimating the areas affected by landslides. and Matano (2010) have been used (Figs. 5 and 6). In particular, these
These data were only used for analysis at a small scale (1:100,000) after studies distinguish between intact and weathered rock and identify a
the transformation of landslides into dots with attributes (Fell et al., stratigraphic succession composed of silts with clay or clay with silt
2008b). At a larger scale, the landslides were inventoried using aerial with sporadic sand intercalations (Figs. 5b and 6a). The soil is classified
photos and the satellite images from Google Earth as input data. The lat- as inorganic, inactive clay having high plasticity and a high liquidity
ter is not considered a scientific method to map shallow landslides, but limit (Fig. 6b). Gullà et al. (2004, 2008) and Cascini and Matano
some authors have recently noted its potential for the creation and (2010) noted that the natural unit weight (γn) varies between 15.0
upgrading of inventory maps (Sato and Harp, 2009; Guzzetti et al., and 20.5 kN/m3, the saturated unit weight (γs) varies from 16 to
2012; Borrelli et al., in press). Considering the limitations of the adopted
procedure, the data provided by Google Earth were locally validated by
in situ surveys.
Currently, few hydro-geological data are available in the test area,
and a limited number of sites have been properly monitored for an ad-
equate period of time. In that context, the Explanatory Notes of the
Hydrogeological Map of Southern Italy, at 1:250,000 scale (Celico
et al., 2005) was used as a reference at the small scale; in contrast, the
data provided by Gullà et al. (2004) for one well-monitored study site
were considered for the analysis of the pore water pressure regime at
the large scale.
In this study, Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) with different resolu-
tions (of 95 × 95 m at the small scale, 25 × 25 m at the medium scale,
and 5 × 5 m at the large scale) were used in geotechnical modelling
and for acquisition of the parameters generally used in GIS procedures,
such as slope angle, curvature, and flow direction. The DEMs used refer
to the elevations at the time when they were created, and they conse-
quently do not take account of the natural slope evolution.

2.2.2. Geotechnical characterisation Fig. 6. Physical and mechanical properties of weathered clays: (a) grain size distribution
Among the data available in the literature, the extensive database envelope; (b) plasticity chart; (c) index properties; (d) shear strength properties (modi-
published in Gullà et al. (2004, 2008) and the data available in Cascini fied after Gullà et al., 2008).
 L. Cascini et al. / Geomorphology 241 (2015) 371–381 375

21.0 kN/m3, and the dry unit weight (γd) varies between 13.7 and
19.7 kN/m3; the values assumed for soil porosity (n) range between
0.30 and 0.48, and the index void (e) ranges from 0.5 to 1.0 (Fig. 6c).
In this study, based on the shear strength tests reported in Gullà et al.
(2004, 2008), a linear shear strength envelope is assumed for low values
of vertical tension (Fig. 6d). This figure corresponds to cohesion values in
the range of 2–24.3 kPa and friction angles in the range of 22–35°, which
demonstrates the heterogeneity of the weathered clays. The data given
in Gullà et al. (2004) and in the database of the CNR-IRPI of Cosenza
have been integrated by saturated and unsaturated laboratory tests as
described in Ciurleo (2012). The overall data set obtained provides sat-
urated permeability values varying in the range Ksat = 3.1 × 10−8 to
7.65 × 10−7 m/s and saturated and residual volumetric water contents
varying within the ranges θs = 0.48–0.43 and θr = 0.28–0.0002,
respectively.
Finally, with regard to the boundary hydraulic conditions, Fig. 5c, d
shows the rainfall data and the soil suction values recorded at a moni-
toring station by a rain gauge and several “Jetfill” tensiometers installed
at various depths below the ground surface (0.10, 0.15, 0.30, 0.45 and
1.20 m). These values show that the suction ranges vary between 0
and 80 kPa during the hydrological year, up to a depth of 0.45 m, a
strong correlation exists between the pore water pressure regime and
the daily cumulative rainfall, and near-saturated conditions were
reached at a depth of 1.20 m between October and May, when many
shallow landslides were recorded in the study area. Moreover, when
examining previous landslide occurrences, a critical cumulative rainfall
for the study site of 43 mm in 2 days was determined by Gullà et al.
(2004).

2.3. Proposed approach

The proposed approach is characterised by three subsequent steps

(at small, medium and large scales); each step provides significant ele-
ments, and once completed, it allows for both the establishment of a
connection between the landslide predisposing factors (at each scale
of analysis) and the landslide susceptibility zoning (Fig. 7). This ap-
proach differs from others insofar as it uses two distinct substeps for
each step: substep I in which predisposing factors are identified, and
substep II in which the factors are quantified. From an operational per-
spective, the proposed approach begins at a small scale, following a log-
ical process that considers the output of substep II for each scale as the
input to substep I for the scale that follows. Such conditions enable a
strict evaluation of the validity of both the methods used and the results
obtained.
At a small-scale analysis (step 1), substep I is developed by apply-
ing the heuristic methods such as geomorphic analysis to i) link the
morphological evolution of the slopes with the small scale predispos-
ing factors and ii) individuate and qualitatively rank the spatial density
of landslides (SLD). To pursue the first aim, the potential correlations
between the morphological evolution of the area and the slopes
generally affected by landslides were analysed, comparing the
main lithological, stratigraphic and tectonic factors governing the
morphological evolution of the region with the landslides inventory
via geomorphic analysis (Kienholz, 1978; Soeters and van Westen,
1996). To pursue the second aim, a spatial landslide density map
was created by cross-referencing with the information gathered
from the official landslide inventory and using the radial basic meth-
od for interpolation (Silverman, 1986) as implemented in the ArcGIS
10 code.
The SLD is a key point of the procedure. Indeed, if the spatial density
of landslides appears consistent with the distribution of shallow land-
slides, the user can go on to the following step; on the contrary, at the
small scale, a further iteration is necessary to properly select the predis-
posing factors of the landslides at hand.
The objective of substep II is to verify the factors recognised in the
previous substep through the “qualitative map combination”—a
Fig. 7. The new–old approach for landslide susceptibility zoning at different topographic
scales.
procedure universally adopted for landslide susceptibility and hazards
(Barredo et al., 2000; Van Westen et al., 2003; Perotto-Baldiviezo et al.,
2004)—thus ranking the areas most prone to landslides. In this proce-
dure, expert judgement is used to assign weighting values to a series
of thematic maps; the sum of the weights leads to susceptibility values
that can be grouped into susceptibility classes. The problem with the
application of this method lies in determining reliable weighting of
the parameters, which necessarily depends on the availability of
both field knowledge and a good landslide inventory. When insuffi-
cient data prevent the proper establishment of factor weights, the
use of weighted values assigned by other scientific papers that address
similar geological contexts and use an accurate landslide inventory
map can be considered. In this paper, we use the weighted values,
which were further amended by the information gathered by
Sorriso-Valvo and Tansi (1996) regarding differential uplift rates
(Table 1), and the data reported by Del Monte et al. (2002) for the
Trionto basin (Calabria Region), which is characterised by a strati-
graphic succession comparable to those recognised in the Catanzaro
and Crotone areas.
The analysis at a medium scale (step 2) by substep I which is imple-
mented using more detailed input data, allows us to i) distinguish shal-
low landslides from erosion phenomena, thus excluding the areas
potentially affected by erosion, and ii) identify shallow landslide predis-
posing factors and the area to be investigated in depth at a larger scale.
Moreover, to distinguish any possible relationships between shallow
landslides and the morphological evolution of the area, we proposed
the use of a Coe's Density Index (Coe et al., 2004).
376 L. Cascini et al. / Geomorphology 241 (2015) 371–381

Table 1 In the first case, the statistical indicator is the standard deviation,
Weights used in the analysis (Del Monte et al., 2002 mod.). which measures the compactness of the distribution by providing a sin-
Predisposing Factors W gle value representing the dispersion of features around the average
Lithologies
value. In the second case, the analysis can be based on the use of a
Alluvial deposits 1 two-by-two contingency table, in which the success and error indexes
Clay 37 at medium scale are calculated using the following expression:
Sand, gravel and conglomerates 8
Grey limestone, marl and sandstone 15
Phyllite, micashist and gneiss 16 SI ðMSÞ ¼ ðN nlm =N nli Þ=ðNlm =Nli Þ ð3Þ
Granite and granodiorite 3

Slope gradient
0 b S ≤ 10 5
10 b S ≤ 20 5
EI ðMSÞ ¼ 1−Nnlm =Nnli ð4Þ
20 b S ≤ 30 12
30 b S ≤ 40 12
S N 40 14 where Nnlm and Nlm are, respectively, the number of TCUs computed as
Drainage density stable and unstable by the method, whereas Nli and Nnli are the number
0bD≤2 0 of TCUs that are affected and not affected, respectively, by the landslide
2bD≤4 26 events.
4bD≤6 17
Finally, at a large scale (step 3), substep I individuates the typical
6bD≤8 7
DN8 7 shallow landslides mechanisms and their spatial distribution along the
slopes, after which it examines the available geotechnical data with
Differential uplift rates
the aim of identifying the following: i) representative geotechnical
DUA1 2
DUA2 6 properties of the lithotypes involved in landslides, excluding shear
DUA3 0 strength parameters for which substep II has been implemented; ii)
the pore water pressure regime in the slopes; and iii) the spatial distri-
bution of the weathered thickness of soils.
Substep II quantifies both the shallow landslide predisposing factors In the present paper, the map of the weathered thickness of soil was
and the shallow landslide susceptibility zoning (SLS) by any statistical initially created by starting from the identification and localisation of
method that is able to identify a number of independent variables the different triggering mechanisms, and the thicknesses were verified
based on the information provided by a landslide inventory. by in situ investigations carried out with a steel bar and some explora-
The statistical method used in the paper is the “information value” tion trenches at a second stage. Based on these data, substep II focuses
bivariate analysis (Yin and Yan, 1988), which is based on the evaluation on: the identification of the most representative shear strength param-
of relative landslide density (IRLDi), the value of which can be computed eters over a large area; the quantification of the triggering mechanisms
for each terrain-mapping unit (TMU) and then summed to compute the and the quantitative susceptibility assessment (QSA) through physically
global index of landslide density (ILD): based models. These models are characterised by a general grid-based
3 2 structure supported by geographic information systems, thus allowing
NumLi for geotechnical analysis over a wide area. This approach generally cou-


Denclasi 6 Areai 7
IRLDi ¼ ln ¼ ln 6 7
6 NumLtot 7 ð1Þ ples a hydrologic model for the analysis of the pore-water pressure re-
Densmap 6 7 gime with an infinite slope stability model for the computation of the
6 Area 7
tot factor of safety.
X Among the distributed models proposed in the scientific literature
ILD ¼ i
IRLDi ð2Þ (e.g., Montgomery and Dietrich, 1994; Baum et al., 2002; Savage et al.,
2004), TRIGRS (Baum et al., 2002) and TRIGRS-unsaturated (Savage
where Densclasi and Densmap are, respectively, the density of landslides et al., 2004) were selected because they use analytical solutions for
in the i-th class and the density of landslides in the entire study area, the pore pressure response to rainfall and provide reliable results for
NumLi is the number of landslides in the i-th class, NumLtot is the total similar problems (Sorbino et al., 2010). Indeed, TRIGRS was used to an-
number of landslides, Areai is the area of the i-th class, and Areatot is alyse saturated conditions that presumably occur in association with a
the total area. densely cracked soil cover. Under such conditions, a mean value of fric-
In the statistical analysis and in general for landslide susceptibility tion angle was assumed, varying the cohesion in a range consistent with
zoning, the discretisation of the territory into TMUs depends on several laboratory values and vice versa. For operating the model for this type of
factors, including the quality and the resolution of the required thematic soil, we assumed the following: i) a friction angle of 27° and cohesion
information, the scale of the analysis and the type of landslide phenom- values between 2 and 14 kPa and ii) a cohesion value of 5 kPa and a fric-
ena under investigation (Calvello et al., 2013). Considering the rele- tion angle between 20° and 40°. On the other hand, TRIGRS-unsaturated
vance of this issue, following Calvello et al. (2013), two different TMUs analysed the unsaturated conditions of the soil cover—representing the
have been identified in this paper: terrain computational units (TCUs) initial landsliding stage—by assuming the representative geotechnical
and terrain zoning units (TZUs), whose use and size depend on both values derived by TRIGRS analyses.
the level and the scale of analysis. To quantify the reliability of the analysis performed, the unstable
The variables introduced in the model were defined on the basis of areas computed by the model were compared with the landslide inven-
the substep I analysis. They were divided into eight classes following tory. The obtained results were quantified following Sorbino et al.
the “quantile” method, except for the geological map and uplift rate (2007), where two percentage indexes named “Success Index SI(LS)”
map for which the number of classes depends, respectively, on the and “Error Index EI(LS)” were introduced and used to refer to the event
outcropping of geological complexes and on the results of substep I. that occurred in 2008–2010. For each source area, SI(LS) is the proportion
The importance of each variable can be determined by defining two (in percent) of the observed source area computed to be unstable by the
statistical parameters, i.e., the individual discrimination capability of a model, and EI(LS) represents the percentage ratio between the unstable
single variable and the contribution of the variables to the success of areas located outside of the observed triggering areas (Aout) and the
the analysis (Calvello, 2012). area not affected by instability (Astab).
 L. Cascini et al. / Geomorphology 241 (2015) 371–381
3. Results and discussion
3.1. Small scale — step 1
Substep I, by geomorphic analysis, highlights the correlation be-
tween the evolution of the slopes and the uplift rate that occurred and
continues to occur at different velocities. Indeed, the fluvial system is
conditioned by this factor as well as by the outcropping lithotypes and
their stratigraphic and tectonic characteristics. In particular, such a sys-
tem is influenced by the local horst of Isola Capo Rizzuto in the Crotone
area and by the Sila and Serre horsts in the Catanzaro graben. Conse-
quently, the highest-gradient rivers are located in the transitional
zone and flow directly into the Ionian Sea, whereas in other areas, the
primary rivers diverge due to the presence of the Serre and Isola Capo
Rizzuto horsts. Based on this information, three sub-zones, referred to
as A1 (Catanzaro Graben), A2 (Transitional zone) and A3 (Crotone
basin), can be distinguished.
The relationships between the geological evolution of these three
sub-zones and the landsides, represented at a small scale by dots with
attributes, are highlighted by the landslide density map (Fig. 8). As illus-
trated in Fig. 8, the area between sub-sectors A1 and A2 is the most af-
fected by landslides, i.e., the area where the highest differential uplifts,
due to the active tectonics, caused the erosion of sand and gravel de-
posits, exposing the clay slopes to weathering and subsequent instabil-
ity phenomena.
Substep II, by qualitative map combination, validates the role played
by the predisposing factors using the weighted values reported by Del
Monte et al. (2002) for the Trionto basin (Calabria Region), which is
an area characterised by a stratigraphic succession comparable to
those recognised in the Catanzaro and the Crotone basins. Del Monte
et al. (2002) identified four predisposing factors of morphological evo-
lution affecting the area, i.e., lithology, slope, drainage density and
land use. Each factor was split into several classes with different weights
depending on the percentage of the area affected by mass movements,
which was obtained by a landslide inventory map at a 1:5000 scale.
Given the scale of analysis (1:100,000), land use is considered less
significant than the other factors mentioned above, whereas the differ-
ential uplift rate is paramount, as noted in the substep I analysis.
The sum of all of the weights (Fig. 9) indicates that one of the areas
most prone to landslides is the one located near the city of Catanzaro,
where clay soils predominate. This area is characterised by a slope
gradient in the range from 20° to 40° and a drainage density between
2 and 4 km−1, and it is highly affected by the uplift of the Sila Massif.
In spite of the use of weights identified by other authors in a
different test area, the adopted approach allows for an automatic iden-
tification of a small area of 150 km2 characterised by a more rapid
Fig. 8. Landslide density map with the identified sub-zones A1, A2 and A3. In legend, LD =
landslides density (number of shallow landslides per km2).
377
Fig. 9. Geomorphic evolution map. Legend: the sum of the weights.
morphological evolution that is essentially related to the differential
uplifts, the prevalent lithotypes, and the characteristics of the fluvial
system.
3.2. Medium scale — step 2
Within the 150 km2 area identified by the small scale analysis as
having experienced the most rapid morphological evolution, substep I
of the medium scale analysis is devoted to identifying the predisposing
factors of shallow landslides, beginning with the geological map and the
structural data previously reported in Fig. 4b. Geological and structural
features of the area reveal the presence of NW–SE normal faults linked
to the tectonic system of the Catanzaro graben (Fig. 4b) and identify
four morpho-structures denoted by two-digit ID codes (1.3, 1.2, 3.1,
2.4) (Fig. 10a). The first digit refers to the surfacing geological period
(1 = Lower Pliocene, 2 = Lower Pleistocene, 3 = Middle Pleistocene),
and the second digit refers to the uplift rate qualitatively defined on
the basis of the scientific literature (Sorriso-Valvo and Tansi, 1996;
Tansi et al., 2006; Ciurleo, 2012).
Focusing on the landslide inventory, which was developed using the
procedures introduced in Section 2.2.1, it is evident that shallow land-
slides, at a medium scale, can be identified only by the landslide area,
whereas deep-seated landslides (with a slip surface deeper than 3 m)
can be recognised by all of their morphological features. Moreover, the
southwest border of the study area (morpho-structure 2.4), where
sands and conglomerates prevail, is affected by deep-seated landslides;
in contrast, on the northern border of the area (morpho-structure 1.3)
where clay deposits are predominant, both deep-seated and shallow
landslides were found. In morpho-structure 1.3, shallow landslides are
localised in the upper layer of the slopes and particularly in well-
defined morphological hollows of clay, whereas the northwest portion
of the study area, a 14 km2 area where Plio-Pleistocenic sands and con-
glomerates outcrop, is mainly affected by erosional processes (Fig. 10a).
Thus, the test area has been reduced from 150 km2 to 136 km2, and
the computed Coe's Index confirmed that shallow instability phenome-
na are concentrated within subsector 1.3. This is most likely due to the
localisation of this sector closest to the Sila Massif; hence, it is
characterised by the highest uplift rate. The uplift, together with the
NW–SE and NE–SW directional fault systems, produced the highest
slope energy, which influenced the stream network and the formation
of the morphological hollows in which shallow landslides frequently
occur.
In substep II of the analysis, the landslide predisposing factors are
quantified by applying the “information value” (Yin and Yan, 1988),
and the TCUs used for computational analysis comprise a regular square
grid with a cell size (or pixel) of 25 × 25 m, whereas the dimension of
the TZUs is set to 16 elementary pixels.
378 L. Cascini et al. / Geomorphology 241 (2015) 371–381
Fig. 10. Medium-scale analysis: (a) Results of Substep I. Legend: 1. Holocene alluvial de-
posits and eolian sands; 2. Pleistocene sands gravels, brown and red-brown conglomer-
ates; 3. Pliocene sands and sandstones; 4. Pliocene light blue-grey silty clays; 5.
Miocenic evaporitic limestones; 6. Miocene sandstones and sands; 7. Miocene conglomer-
ates; 8. Paleozoic schists; 9. Normal faults; 10. Strike–slip faults; 11. Erosion areas; 12.
Shallow landslides; 13. Deep-seated landslide triggering areas; 14. Deep-seated landslide
bodies; 15. Morpho-structures. Red bars represent the Coe's Index for shallow landslides.
(b) Results of Substep II: Bivariate analysis.
All of the considered variables were divided into eight classes, and
only the uplift rate was divided into four classes depending on the num-
ber of morpho-structures identified in substep I of the medium scale
analysis (Fig. 10a).
Following Calvello (2012), the importance of each variable can be
determined assuming values of the significance threshold of deviation,
DEV.ST(Vi)*, and SI(MS) greater than 0.7 and 70%, respectively. The vari-
ables that simultaneously satisfy these conditions are elevation zones,
slope gradient, lithological distributions, and curvature. The ILD map ob-
tained by considering these four variables is reported in Fig. 10b, in
which four susceptibility descriptors are defined: not susceptible for
ILD b 0; low for ILD in the range of [0–0.5]; medium for ILD between
0.5 and 1; and high for ILD N 1.
A comparison between the obtained susceptibility map and the land-
slide inventory from 2010 clearly shows the success of the statistical analy-
sis, establishing the role of the main predisposing factors already identified
in substep I at the medium scale. This success is further confirmed by the
values of the SI(MS) and EI(MS) indexes, respectively equal to 92% and 22%,
which were obtained by considering all of the TCUs with ILD greater than
0, i.e., the TCUs classified as low, medium and high susceptibility.
3.3. Large scale — step 3
The analysis at the medium scale has identified the morphological
hollows located at the toe of the Sila Massif as the areas most susceptible
to the occurrence of shallow landslides. Therefore, a better understand-
ing of the genesis and evolution of these landslides was pursued by
analysing one of these morphological hollows.
3.3.1. Substep I
At the large scale, these landslides are clearly visible and can be
mapped; thus, the starting point of the proposed approach is the identi-
fication and classification of the main landslide mechanisms (Antronico
and Gullà, 2000). For this purpose, and focusing only on the event that
occurred in the winters of 2008–2010, an accurate landslide inventory
was preliminarily developed through in situ surveys, whereas the avail-
able geotechnical data were used to provide a classification of the in-
volved soils.
According to Varnes (1978) and Leroueil et al. (1996), the investigat-
ed phenomena can be generally classified as translational and/or com-
plex slides involving clay and silt, as confirmed by the stratigraphic
successions composed of silts with clay or clays with silt with sporadic
sand intercalations (Figs. 5a and 6b). Moreover, the borehole data
show the presence of a weathered thickness of clay up to 3 m, a thick-
ness confirmed by a geotechnical dataset that shows substantial differ-
ences in index properties and shear strength beyond 3 m (Gullà et al.,
2004; Cascini and Matano, 2010). With reference to the stage of activity,
these landslides can be considered to be prevalently “first failure” phe-
nomena, although post-failure stage movements have been found in
some portions of the morphological hollows.
Then, on the basis of the main features observed by in situ surveys,
three mechanisms named MORLE-CZ1, MORLE-CZ2, and MORLE-CZ3
have been identified (Fig. 11). The primary characteristics of these
mechanisms are strictly related to their different locations along the
slope, which also affect their evolution and magnitude. Specifically,
MORLE-CZ1 can be classified as an earth slide; this mechanism always
occurs at the top of the open slopes, either on old landslide deposits or
near a change in slope gradient. The surface and subsurface runoff,
strongly influenced by slope morphology, are characterised by straight
lines and can be considered responsible for a weathering process that
involves the most superficial soil. This phenomenon is usually rectangu-
lar along the maximum gradient direction; it has a triggering area that is
a few metres wide and a total length of generally less than 10 m. The
maximum depth of the sliding surface is located approximately 1 m
from the ground surface, and the first failure stage is frequently preced-
ed by the opening of cracks at the top of the slope; just after the first fail-
ure stage, the unstable mass dislocates from the landslide source area.
Fig. 11. Shallow landslide mechanisms and their spatial distribution.
 L. Cascini et al. / Geomorphology 241 (2015) 371–381 379

MORLE-CZ3 generally occurs within morphological hollows wider

than those affected by the mechanisms described above and is
characterised by a radially convergent surface and subsurface runoff to-
wards the main drainage lines, which is mainly produced by cracked
zones associated with tectonic structures. In this case, the weathering
process is very rapid and is influenced by lateral runoff, and the weath-
ered thickness becomes deeper. In general, the involved areas are be-
tween 10 and 30 m wide and between 50 and 100 m long, with a
maximum depth of the sliding surface of 3 m, and this mechanism oc-
curs over a longer time span than the other mechanisms. This is essen-
tially due to the weathering process, which involves greater depths and
volumes than with the other mechanisms; MORLE-CZ3 begins with the
opening of a tension crack at the top of the slope, and its evolution is
progressively accelerated by a pattern of cracks inside the landslide
body that facilitates the infiltration of runoff water. Starting from the
localisation of the MORLE-CZ1, MORLE-CZ2, MORLE-CZ3 mechanisms,
and after further verification by in situ investigations, the weathered
thickness map was created (Fig. 12) (Ciurleo, 2012).
Finally, among the available laboratory values, the geotechnical pa-
rameters considered representative of weathered clays over a large
area include the main value of γn (=18 kN/m3) and the highest values
of porosity and saturated conductivity (n = 0.48, Ksat = 5 × 10-07 m/s)
to consider the effects of weathering. Additionally, we used TRIGRS to
identify representative values of cohesion and friction angle until
limiting equilibrium conditions were reached.

Fig. 12. Cover thickness maps. (a) Created by starting from the localisation of the trigger-
ing mechanisms; (b) Verified by in situ surveys (black dots).
MORLE-CZ2 can be classified as a complex earth slide-earth flow phe-
nomenon; the mechanism usually occurs in the upper portions of second-
ary morphological hollows characterised by convergent surface and
subsurface runoff towards the main drainage line, where the overall
weathering intensity is very high. It typically has an oblong shape, and it
is a few metres wide and between 10 and 50 m in length. The sliding sur-
face is at a maximum depth of approximately 1.5 m below the ground
surface. This mechanism has a very rapid triggering stage, and the volume
involved in the landslide is distributed along the main drainage line, al-
though secondary phenomena can occur along the lateral flanks.
3.3.2. Substep II
The prerequisites for the application of physically based models are
the availability of reliable geotechnical and topographical input data,
which must be properly integrated with i) the initial and boundary con-
ditions (pore water pressure regime and critical rainfall values) and ii)
an accurate map of the weathered clay.
The geotechnical input data used for the analyses were deduced in
substep I and are summarised in Table 2. Among the hydraulic parame-
ters that significantly influence the physically based models, TRIGRS and
TRIGRS-unsaturated include Ksat, θs, θr, and the diffusivity value (D).
The parametric analyses based on the data summarised in Table 2
show that the highest value of SI(LS) (90%), corresponding to cohesion
c′ = 2 kPa and friction angle φ′ = 27° (Fig. 13), is associated with a
very high value of EI(LS) (56%), and the computed unstable area is ap-
proximately 3 times larger than the observed area. Fig. 13 also shows
that in the range of c′ = 4.5–6 kPa and φ′ = 26°–31°, TRIGRS yields
more satisfactory results as it systematically provides values of SI(LS)
greater than 60% for values of EI(LS) less than 30%. Moreover, the geo-
technical parameters that better fit the TRIGRS analysis correspond to
the lower value of cohesion and the average value of the friction angle

Table 2
The geotechnical input data used for TRIGRS and TRIGRS unsaturated analyses.

TRIGRS

Unit weight Effective cohesion Friction angle Soil depth Hydraulic conductivity Diffusivity
3
γ (kN/m ) c′ φ′ h trigrs (m) K (m/s) D TRIGRS (m2/s)
(kPa) (°)
18 2–14 27 Variable 5 × 10-07 3.49E-05
5 20–40

TRIGRS-unsaturated

Unit weight Effective cohesion Friction angle Soil depth Hydraulic conductivity Diffusivity θs θr

γ (kN/m3) c′ φ′ h trigrs (m) K (m/s) D TRIGRS_unsaturated (m2/s) (−) (−)

(kPa) (°)
18 5 27 Variable 5 × 10-07 3.49E-05 0.48 0.10
380
Fig. 13. SI(LS) and EI(LS) vs. cohesion c′ and friction angle φ′.
that characterise the linear shear strength envelopes assumed by the
laboratory tests.
Based on these results, a TRIGRS-unsaturated model was used to de-
termine the role played by the unsaturated conditions in the landslide
triggering mechanism. A comparison of the obtained results is provided
in Fig. 14 together with the landslide shapes of the 2008–2010 winter
events.
Fig. 14. Instability scenarios obtained with TRIGRS and TRIGRS-unsaturated considering c
′ = 5 kPa and φ′ = 27°. Landslide inventory from 2010.
L. Cascini et al. / Geomorphology 241 (2015) 371–381
An overview of the obtained results highlights two interesting aspects.
The back analysis confirms that in undisturbed clayey soils, weathering
affects cohesion (by the saturation and desaturation cycles) much more
than the friction angle, as already discussed by Gullà et al. (2006).
TRIGRS and TRIGRS-unsaturated (Fig. 14) seem able to capture the first
and the last slope evolution stages that are strongly influenced by the sig-
nificant change in the fissure patterns from the occurrence of the first fail-
ure phenomena to a completely unstable slope (Ciurleo, 2012).
4. Conclusions
Shallow landslides in fine-grained, weathered soils are natural phe-
nomena that generally affect wide areas in several geo-environmental
contexts. However, the scientific literature only addresses specific prob-
lems and does not provide a methodological approach to properly study
all of the aspects related to these phenomena and, particularly, of as-
pects pertinent to landslide susceptibility assessment. The latter is a
complex issue because landslide inventories, when available, only local-
ise the existing landslides and usually do not provide any further infor-
mation about the area potentially affected by landsliding.
To address the topic, this paper proposes a multi-scale approach that
firstly allows, by heuristic and statistic methods, the discrimination and
zoning of the areas most prone to instability phenomena at small and
medium scales. Upon enlarging the scale, and with the aid of detailed
in situ surveys and geotechnical analyses, the procedure is able to pro-
vide quantitative elements in both the inventory and the susceptibility
of the slope to shallow landslides.
The validity of the proposed approach is testified by its application to
the test area, for which the obtained results underscore a good correla-
tion between the shallow landslides affecting some morphological hol-
lows and the complex geological characteristics of the much wider area
in which the hollows are located. Considering that the innovative aspect
is represented by the ability to properly link the classical geological and
geotechnical methods in a consistent way, it is the authors' opinion that
the proposed approach can be adopted by expert users in other geo-
environmental contexts, where landslides and their consequences rep-
resent a serious problem.
Acknowledgments
This work was carried out under the Commessa TA.P05.012
Tipizzazione di eventi naturali e antropici ad elevato impatto sociale
ed economico of the CNR Department Scienze del sistema Terra e
Tecnologie per l'Ambiente. The authors would like to thank the re-
viewers for their constructive and useful remarks. We are grateful to
Dr. Takashi Oguchi, Editor of the journal, for his valuable comments
and suggestions, which helped us to improve the scientific quality of
the manuscript.
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