Problema 1

Alicia Dresses sells a great amount of white shirts. The shirts are purchased from a manufacturer in New York. A
least two months of sales in inventory. When my stock falls to that level, I request another order equivalent to the
and she sells them at $15, each one. The cost of processing an order and receiving new units is $80 and it takes 3
standard deviation of 2. Assume an interest of 20% yearly to calculate the cost of holding inventory.

Camisas Blancas
Manufacturero de NY

DDLT ~ N( μ = 120, σ = 32)

Mensual Lead Time
Cc 6 Demanda 120 90
Co 80 Desviacion 32 27.71
Pv 15
L semanas 3 Alpha 0
L mes 0.75 Z Alpha 3.9
Ch 1.2 R 198.08

A. Calcule el riesgo de deficit para la politica actual

Alpha = 0

B. Compare el costo promedio anual actual con el que obtendria basado en una politica de tamaño econ

Costo Actual Costo Nivel Servicio 99%

CT 676.980 CT 624.648

Alicia deberia implementar un nivel de servicio de 99% ya que incurriria en un menor costo

C. La demanda se distribuye con la siguiente funcion de densidad f(x)=x/20000. Teniendo en cuenta l a

∫129_0^154,47▒ 〖 1/20000 𝑥ⅆ(𝑥) 〗

1/20000 (𝜒^2/2)_0^154,47

Nivel de servicio 0.597

D. En el caso del punto C halle el numero esperado de quedarse sin unidades en el año

No de pedidos en el año 3.42 ~ 4

Probabilidad de quedarse sin unidades en el año es 0.027

Problema 2

In a card game, player 1 has three cards: a red ace, a black two and a red two, while player 2 has a red two and a b
wins; otherwise, player 2 wins. The payoff is determined as follows: if player 1 shows the ace, the payoff is the di
BLACK TWO, the payoff is the sum of numbers shown by the cars in dollars; if he shows RED TWO and player
otherwise payoff is equal to the sum of numbers on both cards.

A. Player 1 claims that the game is fair (game’s value is equal to 0), is it?

J2
Estrategias
2 3
A 1 -2
J1 2 4 -5
2 0 -5

Modelo J1
Variables X1 X2
Solucion 1 0

Restriccion
1 -2 -5 ≥ -2

1 -2 ≥ -2
3 1 = 1 Maximizar

El juego no es justo, porque su valor no es igual a cero

B. If they play 100 times, what is the probability that the average profit per play for player 1 is lower th
La probabilidad de que el jugador obtenga menos de 0 es del 100%

C. If player 2 shows always black three, determine mathematically the likelihood that player 1 should s

Problema 3

In a casino there is the following game: the player has to choose a number from 1 to 6 and he gambles 100.000 CO
lost money which was gambled, otherwise, his bet is returned and he is paid 100.000 COP each time the number w
number of plays?
In a casino there is the following game: the player has to choose a number from 1 to 6 and he gambles 100.000 CO
lost money which was gambled, otherwise, his bet is returned and he is paid 100.000 COP each time the number w
number of plays?

x p(x) Ganancia Perdida

1 0.167 $ 100,000 -$ 100,000
2 0.167 $ 100,000 -$ 100,000
3 0.167 $ 100,000 -$ 100,000
4 0.167 $ 100,000 -$ 100,000
5 0.167 $ 100,000 -$ 100,000
6 0.167 $ 100,000 -$ 100,000

E(x) 100000

Probabilidad de elegir 0.166666667

Probabilidad de elegir el numero del jugador 0.5
anufacturer in New York. Alicia, the owner, says :”I want to be sure I will never run out of shirts. I always try to maintain at
other order equivalent to the expected demand of two months. I have used this method for 20 years”. Shirts cost $6 to Alicia
w units is $80 and it takes 3 weeks to receive the cargo. Monthly demand is approximately normal with a mean of 120 and
ding inventory.

Demanda Anual 1560

Q* 456.07
Ss 108.080

Alpha 2 0.01
Z Alpha 2 2.33
R2 154.47
Ss 64.47

una politica de tamaño economico de lote que busque un nivel de servicio del 99%

a en un menor costo

0000. Teniendo en cuenta l apolitica del el nivel de servicio del 99% halle el punto de reorden
Demanda Anual 1560 Alpha 2 0.01
Q* 456.07017 Z Alpha 2 2.326347874
Ss 108.0799704 R2 154.4696434
Ss 64.46964342

es en el año
layer 2 has a red two and a black three. Simultaneously, both players show a card. If both cards have the same color, player 1
s the ace, the payoff is the difference in dollars of numbers shown on both cards (ace is regarded as one); if player 1 shows
hows RED TWO and player 2 shows a card with the same color, player 1 gets a payoff equal to the difference between cards,

-2

play for player 1 is lower than 0?

lihood that player 1 should show the red Ace

and he gambles 100.000 COP. Then a dice is thrown three times. If it is not obtained the number that the player chose, he
COP each time the number was obtained. If you were the player, would you gamble regarding the expected profit in a great
Inventario al menos de dos mese
R
C
Pv
Co
Ch
L

A.

B.

C.

∫129_18^150▒ 〖 (𝑥−
∫25_151^154,47▒ 〖 1

D.
nventario al menos de dos meses
198.08 L 0.75 Meses
6 Media 120 Mensual
15 Media (L) 90
80 Desviacion 32 Mensual
1.2 Desviacion (L) 27.71
3 semanas Z Alpha 3.9

Riesgo de deficit para la politica actual

Alpha 0

Costo actual vs Costo con nivel de servicio del 99%

Opcion 1 Opcion 2
E(x) 90 Z Alpha 2.326
E(x) Anual 1560 R 154.470
Q* 456.07 Ss 64.47
Ss 108.08 CT 624.65
CT 676.98

Es recomendable utilizar un nivel de servicio del 99% ya que el costo es menor

Demanda triangular. Minimo 18 y Maximo 200. Regularmente 105 unidades demandas

Media (L) 107.67 a 18

Varianza 768.61 b 200
Desviacion 27.72 c 105
R 154.470
Q* 456.07
Ss 108.08

∫129_18^150▒ 〖 (𝑥−18)^2/(200−18)(150−18) ⅆ(𝑥) 〗 +

∫25_151^154,47▒ 〖 1−(200−𝑥)^2/(200−18)(200−150) =𝑁𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑙 𝑑𝑒 𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑜 〗

El nivel del servicio seria de 28.572%

0.88010333

Probabilidad de no quedarse sin inventario en el año

No de veces que se ordena en el año 3.42052628 ~ 4

p(x) 0.59997708
p(x) 0.59997708 Funcion