By Maqsood A.

Butt
June 26, 2016

IMPENDING COTTON CRISES

Exact age of the cotton is not known but pieces of cloth have been found in caves in Mexico, which prove
to be 7000 years old. In the Indus River Valley in Pakistan, cotton was being grown, spun and weaved
into cloth 3000 years BC. Cotton, which accounts for 31% of worldwide fiber production, requires
warm climate and is grown though in 100 countries but the top 10 producers are China, India, USA,
Pakistan, Brazil, Uzbekistan, Turkey, Australia, Turkmenistan, Greece. About 30% of the world’s
consumption of cotton fiber crosses international borders before processing, which is much larger share
that wheat, rice or soybeans. Through trade in yarn, fabric and clothing, much of the world’s cotton
again crosses international borders at least once more before reaching the final consumer.

The whole cotton plant is useful---the fiber is the most important which is used afterwards in the textile
chain. Linters, the short fiber on the seed are used to make good quality of paper and viscose, mattress
fillings etc. The cottonseed or banola is crushed to extract oil (which is processed foruse in cooking), the
other by product is cottonseed cake which is used as feed for animals.

Cotton sowing is done from April to 15 June and the first picking starts in July while the last picking is in
Feb/March in succeeding year. There are mainly 8 steps, which determine the yield of the cotton, which
are Establishing the Crop (seed quality, plant population, soil condition), Nutrition, Irrigation, Fruit
Retention (boll number and boll weight which impacts on retention), Weed Control, Pesticide (quantity
and spacing of usage), Plant Stress (waterlogging, heat stress), Defoliation and Picking. Pakistan ‘s
efficiency unfortunately is below par in almost all areas.

Cotton(which is a cash crop) and textile is one of the most important and vibrant sector of the economy
employing about 30 mill workforce in growing, ginning, spinning, weaving, processing and apparels
sectors and accounts for on average 55% of the exports. Production of cotton is almost static during the
last 10 years with average yield per acre of 615 kg/Ha in 1990, which creeped to a maximum of 782
kg/ha in 2014 but dwindled to 680 kg/ha in 2016. Against this, yield in Australia is 1,887 kg/ha, Israel
1769 kg/ha, 1614 kg/ha in China. However, India consumes Bt cottonseed of 3 kg/ha while in Pakistan
the seed consumption is 5 to 7 kg/ha. India’s yield per ha was 225 kg in 1990 which has gone up to
527.5 kg/ha in 2015-16 due to use of Bt cotton, although India’s cultivated area is largely dependent on
monsoon rains.

For 2015-16 seasons, actual production was 9.748 Mill bales against the target of 14.785 mill bales
(34% less than the target). The reason given by the Government was the bad weather whereas main
reasons were the bad quality/uncertified seeds, adulterated/low quality of pesticides, fertilisers,
demoralizing of growers when the spinners started offering Rs. 2000 per maund phutti rate (against
their input cost of Rs. 2700 per maund) in August, 15 and they stopped using further pesticides to cut
their losses. The shortage in production meant a direct loss of about US$ 1.06 bill to the farmers being
the value of 5.037 mill bales. A study was conducted in 2008 by a committee, which included Federal
Secretary, Ministry of Agriculture, Member, Planning Commission and heads of all relevant Govt
departments, APTMA, the leading Growers, multinational organizations and seed companies. The Study
unanimously recommended to the Government among other things, the enactment of Plant Breeders’
Right Act (pending approval since 2002) but unfortunately this bill was neither enacted by the National
Assemblies of Musharraf and Zardari nor by the present Government and is pending with National
Assembly since Nov, 2015 due to the wrangling between Ministry of National Food Security and
Intellectual Property Organization to get the mandate of running the office to register seeds under the
proposed Bill. This is a dereliction of duty of the relevant departments, which is causing loss of billions
of rupees annuallyto the national exchequer. This also shows lack of seriousness of allthe governments
to solve one of the basic issues impeding the growth of cotton yield. There is a widespread rumor that
some mafia is obstructing approval of this bill to market their uncertified seedvarieties. The fact that
Musharraf and Zardari Government during 11 years did not pass this bill and the present Government,
(notwithstanding the fact that in all the last 3 budgets) has reiterated its resolve to enact this law but
failed, gives credence to the above-stated rumor.

The shortage of good quality seed is a persistent problem. There appears to be no regulatory check on
companies flooding the markets with impure seeds of different brands to attract growers. Monsanto, a
multinational seed company, claims that BT Cotton (bioinsecticide) is genetically enhanced to resist
major caterpillar pests, including bollworm and pink bollworm, among the most damaging insect pests
worldwide and need less water. Countries using Bt cotton have reported a significant drop in the use of
sprays. However, Dr. Neil Forrester, a Bt Cotton expert and an ex employee of Monsanto, in 2008 urged
Pakistan to avoid Bt cotton. He explained that biggest threat to Pakistan’s indigenous cotton was the
cotton leaf virus and pests were of least concern.

The cultivation area for 2016-17 is set at 3.009 mills ha (for Punjab 2.310 mill ha)and is targeted to
produce 14.001 mill bales at 726 kg/ha. This is not achievable. Never during the last 10 years, the entire
targeted area has been cultivated. Mr. Shahzad Khan, Chairman, Cotton Association has confirmed that
till today in Sindh, almost 95% area has been cultivated but in Punjab the area cultivated is around 70
to 75%, although Government claims that 84% area has been cultivated. So even if 75% targeted area is
cultivated in Punjab and last year’s 680/Kg ha yield is achieved, the total production of Punjab will be
not more than 7.600 Mill bales provided there is no damage to the crop by rains which are expected to
be 20% more this year. For Badin area there is a forecast of 30% more rain, which may effect about 10%
of production. Background discussion with the persons related with cotton trade are pessimistic and are
of the firm opinion that we will be lucky if we achieve total production equal to last year’s of 9.7 Mill
bales. Mr. Naseem Usman, the cotton expert has estimated that the crop shall be a maximum of around
11.00 mill bales. Another surprising factor which needs immediate attention is the non-production of
extra long staple cotton which was produced in Pakistan till 1990 but is now imported every year by
spending billions of rupees in foreign exchange. It is stated that since Pakistan was using mostly course
count of yarn, as such they focused on varieties, which give more weight of the fiber than the length.

While questioning the competence of various research organisations of the Government for their failure
to produce any hybrid seed which is resistant to curl leaf virus and pests, Pakistan needs a
comprehensive and integrated approach where the issues of seed, fertiliser, pesticides, support price of
phutti, irrigation and picking system are discussed and solved on an emergent basis with all the
stakeholders. Peace meal solutions like reducing cost of fertiliser are not going to help.

We earnestly urge the Finance Minister Mr. Ishaq Dar, who has proven to be the only minister capable of
getting the things done, to (1)MOST IMPORTANTLY immediately fix phutti support price, giving
reasonable profit to the growers like it was done with wheat (2) Get the Plant Breeders Right Bill
enacted so that local and international seed companies develop seeds suitable to our cotton, and (3)
Give special emphasis to the cotton crop in Punjab for the current season which, though is being looked
after by a very efficient provincial agriculture minister, has to be ensured that proper fertilisers/
pesticides are provided to avoid a repeat of last season.

(The writer is President of PoliticalEconomy Watch and can be reached at

president@economywatch.com.pk)