Professional Documents
Culture Documents
DERIVATIVES
One day an Exchange in Chicago thought about it and they came up with an id
We will provide SETTLEMENT GUARANTEE
When exchange started trading, prices become transparent
Transactions easily entered the zone of trillions of dollars
Now the farmer from Pondicherry could sell rice to a shopkeeper in Poland
Trust is no longer needed
Once trading became convenient and less risky, speculators arrived and now t
dominate the scene - the genuine holders of that commodity are in a small mi
CBOT which trades trillions of dollars has a warehouse capacity of less than 50
Less than 1% is delivered and rest is all squared up
Weather:
X says that tom temp in Chennai will be more than 29 deg Celsius
Y says No - it will be less
They agree to pay each other $ 1 mio for every degree up or down (from 29)
If winter is very harsh (minus 20 deg to min 40 deg Celsuis) - would Enron be
Very happy - huge demand for power
If winter is mild (zero to minus 20 deg), Enron is sad
Mild
Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Merrills - they will start marketing these pro
They will happy in all winters
For every one Pepsi and one Enron, 1000 MBAs will arrive
Credit Derivative
The underlying is the risk of default by the issuer
You are holding a bond issued by IBM
What is the risk you carry?
Default by IBM
CDS - Swap - you go and buy this CDS instrument - price is 45 basis points (p.a
It’s a 5 year bond - so you pay every 45 cents
If IBM defualts you will get $ 100
Before Enron defaulted (one year before), CDS of Enron was quoting at 135 ba
If you had bought for Rs 1.35, you would have got Rs 100
Indian Scene
Pre independence - active commodity derivatives market
Indians are known to have been trading in London and NY markets actively
Till around the 60s comm deriv were quite popular
1960s - War with China, Nehru, instability at the Prime Minister, serious famin
Films - Mother India, Do Beegha Zamin
Villains - Ration shop owner with long queues - no kerosene, no da
Rajesh Khanna
Severe commodity shortages
1966 - PL-480 US supplied us wheat - fed to the horses
Blackwell Report - argues that India should be given nothing
bcoz India is a gone case
All Comm Deriv were banned by the Govt
Equity Derivatives
How old 132 years 6.5 years
No of Scrips 6,000 plus 122 +
Daily Turnover Rs 000 Cr 8 - 15 30 - 45
Commodity markets also started - MCX, NCDEX, NMCE Ahd, Indore Soya
MCX - Fin Tech - Software provider
Gold, silver, agri, crude and steel
Forex - not open to all - open to corporates with forex exposure - OTC market
Interest Rates - not open to all - open to corporates - OTC market
FUTURES
Infosys Bullish View
Stock Price 2093
You bought
In 10 days time, it goes to 2187
You sell, make a profit of 94
To buy, what do you need - Cash
Return 4.49%
These are short term markets - Futures are short term products
Futures would have an expiry date
If you have a 20 year bullish view on Infy what should you do?
Buy Equity
In practice, the first month is active - the second month is pretty illiquid - the t
month is dead
Lot Sizes
In equity, lot size is 1
In deriv, there are diff lot sizes for each scrip
Till 2 days ago, Nifty lot size was 100
Notional Contract Value = 100 x 4107 = Rs 4,10,700
IFCI - lot size was 31,500 units x Rs 8 = Rs 252,000
Logic - min value should be Rs 2 lakhs
Why? To deter the "small investor"
Lot sizes are reviewed once in a while
Now, Nifty lot size is 50 units
Open Interest
Emerges only in the Derivatives markets
Means the number of positions open in the market at any point of time
If you buy 1 contract and some one sells 1 contract and that’s the only trade ti
in that underlying, then Open Interest is defined as "1"
Infosys B1 B2 B3 S1 S2
Day One 55 -55
Day Two -17 120 -20 -83
38 120 -75 -83
Day Three -8 -55 300 40 -43
30 65 300 -35 -126
When Open Int reaches 70% of max, warning signals are issued thro the tradin
At 80%,90% signals are flashed
At 95%, final warning flashed
Post this, no dealer should take fresh positions (sq up allowed)
If done, then penalties are imposed - Rs 1 lakh per underlying per day
15 days agoToday
Nifty 4223 3933 Bears are winning
Daily Volume 17000 23000 Big battle
Open Interest 32000 26500 Winners are quitting
Product Usage
1. Speculation
2. Hedging
3. Arbitrage
Hedging
Risk mitigation
If you have a portfolio of equity or equity oriented mutual funds - Cost Rs 125
Value - Rs 375 lakhs
You are very happy
But also nervous bcoz now the market is falling after a fairly long bull run - ne
You don’t want to sell your portfolio bcoz you are bullish long term
This kind of hedging will make you look brilliant in one month and stupid in th
Dec 2005 to April 2006 - Very strong bullishness Sensex 9000 to 12600
May and June 2006 - Major crash - 9000
Beta of 1.14 means what? If Nifty rises by 1%, your portfolio will tend to rise b
Arbitrageur:
Has no view (he is neither bullish nor bearish)
Looks for imperfections especially in pricing
Tries to take advantage and earn almost risk free return
Returns will be low - benchmark should be a Debt Fund
You cant say that last year Sensex went up 39% and this Arbit earned only 9%
Profit 12
Investment 2105
Return 0.57%
Days 32
Annualized Return 6.50%
Investment may also be required for Initial Margins towards Futures positions
This Initial Margin can be paid in several ways (both cash and non cash format
In the above simple example, I have not considered transaction costs
The mutual fund industry has coined special schemes for Arbitrage
Around Rs 4,000 cr of mutual funds corpus are operating
They have earned Liquid Fund return plus 1 to 1.5% extra
FIIs are very active - risk free return is v interesting, rupee is very stable
Lot of money
Sudden money can corrupt
Equity - glamorous
Deriv - more glamorous
First 3 months, you will increase your exposure
In one day, you can lose your last 30 years of income
Warren Buffet - never forget the Post Office (Debt Funds, Low Risk Funds)
Keep a good chunk of your investments in low risk debt funds etc
Within debt funds, arbit funds are pretty good
OPTIONS
Long Fut, Long Eq, Long MF, Long Asset
Profit
Upside - happy - unlim
Price Downside - sad - unlim
Loss
Long Call
b c
a
a = -43
b = 2150
c = 2193
You are bullish on Infosys
Equity 2105 You need cash
Futures 2117 High risk
Infosys 2150 March Call 43 Premium, Value, Cost, Price
Short Call
Limited Profits
Unlimited Losses
43
2150 2193
Insurance industry
How many buyers of Insurance policies in India? Millions
How many sellers? 15 companies
Same in Options
A Life Insurance Policy is also a Call Option - underlying Life
The only diff between Infy Option and a Life Option is that in one of them expir
is known
Very few Short Options are sold on the assumption that Infy will go down
Long Put
Any time you buy an Option, the most common way to get out is Sell it
But sometimes, markets may be illiquid - you cant sell
So, this window is available - Exercise
Exercise is rare bcoz it is suboptimal
At what price?
At Intrinsic Value
You are giving up Time Value
2178
2150 Call
Bad news at 3:45
Tom Infy will open at a low
STRATEGIES
The English language has 26 alphabets
The derivative language has 6 basic alphabets
We combine alphabets to make words, sentences, paragraphs, books
Unlimited combinations are possible with alphabets and with derivative instru
You are buying a 2150 call for Rs 43 and selling a 2300 call for Rs 12
Other Examples:
1. Buy a 2150 Call for Rs 43 and sell a 2250 Call for Rs 18
2. Buy a 2150 Call for Rs 43 and sell a 2000 Call for Rs 125
3. Buy a 2150 Call for Rs 43 and Buy a 2150 Put for Rs 82
4. Buy a 2150 Call for Rs 43 and Buy a 2050 Put for Rs 38
5. Buy a 2150 Call for Rs 43 and Sell a 2150 Put for Rs 80
BULL SPREAD
75 119
2175
2150 2181
2300
2250
25 31
BEAR SPREAD
82
2150
2000 2082
-68
LONG STRADDLE
-125
-81
View - market will be volatile
We do not know the direction
2150
2050
2083
Synthetic is a combination of instruments which creates a payoff similar to ano
instrument
Option Pricing
Calls being bullish products will appreciate when the market is bullish and Put
appreciate when the market is bearish
In simplistic terms this is true
You input your data and the model tells you that the price should be Rs 39
Actual price is Rs 43
They go back and change the Volatility assumption to make the model price co
the market price
Historical Volatility was 22% 39
Implied Volatility 24% 43
Indian market does work based on these models plus market savviness
Time Value
2103 2150
You are not so bullish nor are you willing to take so much risk
Selling options not bcoz they are bullish or bearish but bcoz they want to "eat
premium - khanewala
They will calls and puts (and swallow two side premiums)
1. Assume that you are selling a Straddle on the last Friday of each month
Strike is the nearest multiple of 50
2. Collecting a premium based on 24% Imp Vol
3. Days will be either 28 or 35
4. Look at next month last Thu Nifty Close
5. Payouts to be quantified
6. Work out the net profit
be known as FUTURES
winter problem
Mild
markets actively
no kerosene, no dal
iven nothing
erivative markets
d, Indore Soya
(on expiry)
int of time
S3 Op Int
55
158
-234
-234 395
volume, volatility, free float, etc
wed for each month for
ng per day
onfident
Profit
Loss
Net Net
Loss
Profit
Net Net
00 to 12600
nd the hedge
o will tend to rise by 1.14%
Profit
Loss
day - Long
oday - Short
almost equal)
Futures positions
nd non cash formats)
ion costs
s very stable
w Risk Funds)
trument)
mited Losses
limited Profits
mited Profits
limited Losses
n one of them expiry date
will go down
Short Put
Margins
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
ut is Sell it
e is negligible
omes interesting
or expiry
hs, books
h derivative instruments
beyond 2300
0 call for Rs 12
will be volatile
ow the direction
ayoff similar to another
hould be Rs 39
the model price come to
t savviness
me Value
e Straight Lines represents
Bu
Be
Bu
Be
Bu
Net Bu
of each month