Corona virus, nowadays a pandemic all over the world which is growing an exponentially because of its

property of transmission through an easy medium i.e. droplets. Analyzing its impact during the time of
its origin in China, it has shown exponential behavior and increasing constantly in certain range of
exponential rate.

3 blue 1 brown, a famous YouTube channel have analyzed the situation using some
mathematical tools and have given proper visualization of how data can be handled mathematically and
what actually the exponential growth in terms of real time behavior. Using worldometer as a source of
data coming from, he is trying to analyze the situation applying different theories of mathematics to
represent behavior shown by this virus.

According to worldometer, after knowing an existence of virus in Wuhan, WHO have tracked the
record of people who are being infected by the virus. Till unknown of property shown by Corona Virus, It
had analyzed that the number of infected peoples were being increased by the constant rate of 1.15-
1.25 exponential behavior every day which is very high ratio of spreading of this virus.

According to this video, we can easily apply the formula to find the upcoming possible infectants where
it mainly related with number of cases on a given day, number of infected people exposed and
probability of becoming an infection.

As it doesn’t provide the actual result, because it directly implies on behavior shown by
Infectants and immunity power of person who is in touch or exposure with infected agents or victims. It
shows probabilistic behavior thus we can only suppose and predict result that may be close to the
result. Moreover, ratio of people who are exposed is also will be very difficult to analyze. We can’t be
sure that taking of sample from infected peoples might not be true. But this calculation can explain that

Big number of infectants and their high exposure will make possibility of increasing of upcoming
infectants.

As visualizing the current situation recorded by worldometer, logarithmic scale shown an

increase of case by 10 times every 16 days. It means if the number of infectants increased exponentially
in a same ratio, then condition may go out of scope transmitting to billions of populations within some
days.

Analyzing the case, we can find some inputs that are giving this virus an exponential behavior
that can be solved in some extent by breaking its pattern of its exponential behavior.

Although, it takes a lot of time to recover the victim of virus or their death so to decrease the
number of virus infectants. But this is not the main factor of showing exponential behavior.

Exposure of infectants in a crowd is the proportional factor which is creating the huge impact in
transmission of virus followed by probability of transmission of virus to the person came close with
infectants.
According to him, as it reaches to some population extent, i.e. on the basis of some groups i.e. country
wise, the growth factor comes reducing with growth factor showing the property of sigmoid i.e. makes
possibility of infection to very low amount.

Let us suppose:

Ni-be the number of infectants.

E- be the exposure of infectants to the surrounding and

P-be the probability of the spreading of virus

And,

dNx be the upcoming infectants in the total population.

Then,

dNx+1=E.P.Ni

Hence, to decrease the exponential ratio, E and P plays direct impact.

Avoiding social exposure means to make a social distance so Ecurrent<<<to Eearlier than it helps to degrade
growth ratio of spreading of viruses in a noticeable vague amount.

In context of Nepal and even representing the whole world, decreasing the value of E and P means to
avoid social exposure of infectants that can be done in some ways:

-Lock down of city with high density that consists of probability of transmission due to presence of NI.

-Stop travelling of Ni and probable Ni people so that E to the new cluster (group of people i.e. Travelling
to city wise) It also creates positive impact on E to the Npopulation of distributed cluster. People in different
group remain safe if transmission of virus to uninfected area is created.

-Placing Ni peoples to the quarantine is also the better approach that reduces the probability of
transmission of viruses to the uninfected people.

As P is directly proportional to the increase of Ni+1 in a daily basis, taking Ni people to different
clusters helps to decrease probability of transmission to the Uninfected cluster of people.

Let’s take an example of a country,

Before march 22, Ni of people excluding to the recovery term is about 0.

Then It later seen on infectant who is coming from different group i.e. foreign place from an infected
zone.

As he/she come in exposure with new group, P and E of the new group of population is directly
proportional to increase with some growth ratio of N.
 It results with finding of new infectant i.e. Ni in new group of population with increased P of
infecting the people who came to exposure of Npopulation group. Similarly, same case applies to the E and
P peoples of infection and their expose to new uninfected population which goes in exponential way.

If clustering of these infectant and some probable ie. Ni.P.E of peoples are recently quarantined,
than, P and E remains constant to the quarantined zone. Virus consists a property that can be set to
threshold value 10-21 days in which it gives some output if the result of infection is positive.

By utilizing this property, we can reduce the possibility of transmission of virus to Npopulation from
Ni peoples reducing the possibility of

E and P very near to 0 that directly depends on Ni and Npopulation to E value.

Thus, minimizing value of E and P to threshold of 20-25 days and avoiding sharing agents
and Ni or Nnormal people from different group and cluster will help to prevent people from this
pandemic.