Business Statistics and RM

Lecture 2
Probability Distribution

Hamendra Dangi
hkd2studnents@gmail.com
9968316938

HK DANGI 1
 Session Break up
• Probability Distribution
• Discrete and Continuous Distribution
• Practice Test
 Binomial Distribution
• Binomial Distribution is a probability distribution expressing the
probability of one set of dichotomous alternative
• Assumption:
1) An experiment is performed under same condition for fixed
number of trials
2) For each trial there are only two possible outcome
3) The probability of success –p remains constant from trial to trial
4) The trials are statistically independent

Constants
Mean =np
S.D = SQRT(npq)
 Example
• Assume that half of the population is
vegetarian so that chance of an individual
being vegetarian is ½ and assuming 100
investigator can take sample of 10
individual to see whether they are
vegetarian ,how many investigator would
you expect to report three or less were
vegetarian ?
 Question for discussion
• The incident of a disease on the average
20% workers suffers from it .10 workers
are selected at random .Find the
probability i) Exactly two workers suffers
from it
ii) Not more than 2 workers suffers from it
 Solution
• P( 2) = 0.302\
• P(0) +P(1) +P(2) = 0.678
Poisson Distribution
 Example
• Suppose that a manufactured product has 2
defects per unit of product inspected
.Using poison distribution calculate the
probability of finding a product without
any defects , 3 defects and 4 defects
• ( e-2= 0.135)
 Question for discussion
• A manufacturer ,who produces medicine
bottles ,find that 0.1% of bottles are defective
.The bottles are packed in a box containing 500
bottles . A drug manufacturer buys 100 boxes
from produces of bottles .Using Poisson
distribution Find how many bottles will contain
• A) No defective
• B) At least two defectives Given e-0.5 = 0.6065
• 1) 60.65
• 2) 9.025 or 9
 The Normal Probability
Distribution
• Graph of the Normal Probability Density
Function
f (x )

x

 The Normal Curve
• The shape of the normal curve is often illustrated as a bell-
shaped curve.

• The highest point on the normal curve is at the mean of the

distribution.

• The normal curve is symmetric.

• The standard deviation determines the width of the curve.

 The Normal Curve
• The total area under the curve the same as any other
probability distribution is 1.

• The probability of the normal random variable assuming a

specific value the same as any other continuous probability
distribution is 0.

• Probabilities for the normal random variable are given by

areas under the curve.
The Normal Probability Density
Function
1  ( x   )2 / 2 2
f ( x)  e
2 

where
 = mean
 = standard deviation
 = 3.14159
e = 2.71828
 Given any positive value for z, the table will give us the

following probability

The table will give this

probability

Given positive z

The probability that we find using the table is the

probability of having a standard normal variable
between 0 and the given positive z.
 Given z find the probability
z .00 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09
.0 .0000 .0040 .0080 .0120 .0160 .0199 .0239 .0279 .0319 .0359
.1 .0398 .0438 .0478 .0517 .0557 .0596 .0636 .0675 .0714 .0753
.2 .0793 .0832 .0871 .0910 .0948 .0987 .1026 .1064 .1103 .1141
.3 .1179 .1217 .1255 .1293 .1331 .1368 .1406 .1443 .1480 .1517
.4 .1554 .1591 .1628 .1664 .1700 .1736 .1772 .1808 .1844 .1879

.5 .1915 .1950 .1985 .2019 .2054 .2088 .2123 .2157 .2190 .2224
.6 .2257 .2291 .2324 .2357 .2389 .2422 .2454 .2486 .2518 .2549
.7 .2580 .2612 .2642 .2673 .2704 .2734 .2764 .2794 .2823 .2852
.8 .2881 .2910 .2939 .2967 .2995 .3023 .3051 .3078 .3106 .3133
.9 .3159 .3186 .3212 .3238 .3264 .3289 .3315 .3340 .3365 .3389
 Example
• Assume the mean height of soldier to be
68.22 inches with a variance of 10.8 inches
.How many soldier in an regiments of 1000
would you expect to be over six feet tall
 Question for Discussion
• An aptitude test for selecting medial
officers in a hospital was conducted on
100. The average score is 42 and SD of
24 marks Find
a) The number of candidate whose score
exceeds 60
b) The number of candidate whose score
lies between 30 and 66
• A) 0.2524( No of candidates =25)
• B) 0.5328 or 53.28
CLASS TEST
 Practice Question
• If random variable X follows ND. Find
probability that X shall be greater than 80,
when Average and SD of X are 90 and 5
respectively.