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TABLE OF CONTENTS

03
NORMAL
NORMAL APPROXIMATION NORMAL
DISTRIBUTION TO THE APPROXIMATION
BINOMIAL TO POISSON
LEARNING OBJECTIVES

● Explain the characteristics of a normal


distribution.
● Convert between z-scores and areas under a
normal probability curve.
● Calculate probabilities that correspond to left,
right, and middle areas from a z-score table.
● Use a probability distribution for a continuous
random variable to estimate probabilities and
identify unusual events.
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

● Often referred to as the Gaussian


distribution, in honor of Karl
Friedrich Gauss(1777–1855), who
also derived its equation from a
study of errors in repeated
measurements of the same quantity.
THE NORMAL CURVE
● Graph of a continuous probability distribution
● bell-shaped curve which approximately describes many
phenomena that occur in nature, industry, and research
THE NORMAL CURVE
APPLICATIONS

● physical measurements in areas such as


meteorological experiments, rainfall studies
● Measurements of manufactured parts
● errors in scientific measurements
PROPERTIES

1. The mode, which is the point on the horizontal


axis where the curve is a maximum, occurs at x =
μ.
2. The curve is symmetric about a vertical axis
through the mean μ.
3. The normal curve approaches the horizontal axis
asymptotically as we proceed in either direction
away from the mean.
4. The total area under the curve and above the
horizontal axis is equal to 1.
Properties of a Theoretical Normal Distribution

1. A normal distribution curve is bell-shaped.


2. The mean, median, and mode are equal and are located at the center of the
distribution.
3. A normal distribution curve is unimodal (i.e., it has only one mode).
4. The curve is symmetric about the mean, which is equivalent to saying that its shape
is the same on both sides of a vertical line passing through the center.
5. The curve is continuous; that is, there are no gaps or holes. For each value of X,
there is a corresponding value of Y.
6. The curve never touches the x axis. Theoretically, no matter how far in either
direction the curve extends, it never meets the x axis—but it gets increasingly close.
7. The total area under a normal distribution curve is equal to 1.00, or 100%.
8. The area under the part of a normal curve that lies within 1 standard deviation of the
mean is approximately 0.68, or 68%; within 2 standard deviations, about 0.95, or
95%; and within 3 standard deviations, about 0.997, or 99.7%.
STANDARD NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

● The distribution of a normal random variable with


mean 0 and variance 1
AREAS UNDER THE CURVE

● The curve of any continuous probability distribution or


density function is constructed so that the area under
the curve bounded by the two ordinates x = x1 and x = x2
equals the probability that the random variable X
assumes a value between x = x1 and x = x2.
Finding Areas Under the Standard Normal
Distribution Curve
For the solution of problems using the standard
normal distribution, a two-step process is
recommended with the use of the Procedure Table
shown. The two steps are as follows:
Step 1 Draw the normal distribution curve and shade
the area.
Step 2 Find the appropriate figure in the Procedure
Table and follow the directions given.
SAMPLE PROBLEM
A certain type of
storage battery lasts,
on average, 3.0
years with a
standard deviation of
0.5 year. Assuming
that battery life is
normally distributed,
find the probability
that a given battery
will last less than 2.3
years.
SAMPLE PROBLEM
An electrical firm
manufactures light
bulbs that have a life,
before burn-out, that is
normally distributed
with mean equal to 800
hours and a standard
deviation of 40 hours.
Find the probability that
a bulb burns between
778 and 834 hours.
SAMPLE PROBLEM
An adult has on
average 5.2 liters of
blood. Assume the
variable is normally
distributed and has a
standard deviation of
0.3. Find the
percentage of
people who have
less than 5.4 liters of
blood in their
system.
APPLICATIONS OF THE NORMAL
DISTRIBUTION
Each month, an American
household generates an average of
28 pounds of newspaper for
garbage or recycling. Assume the
variable is approximately normally
distributed and the standard
deviation is 2 pounds. If a household
is selected at random, find the
probability of its generating
a. Between 27 and 31 pounds per
month
b. More than 30.2 pounds per
month
SAMPLE PROBLEM
In an industrial process, the diameter
of a ball bearing is an important
measurement. The buyer sets
specifications for the diameter to be
3.0 ± 0.01 cm. The implication is that
no part falling outside these
specifications will be accepted. It is
known that in the process the
diameter of a ball bearing has a
normal distribution with mean μ = 3.0
and standard deviation σ = 0.005. On
average, how many manufactured ball
bearings will be scrapped?
SAMPLE PROBLEM
A certain machine
makes electrical resistors
having a mean
resistance of 40 ohms
and a standard deviation
of 2 ohms. Assuming
that the resistance
follows a normal
distribution and can be
measured to any degree
of accuracy, what
percentage of resistors
will have a resistance
exceeding 43 ohms?
Finding Data Values Given Specific
Probabilities
Finding Data Values Given Specific
Probabilities
SAMPLE PROBLEM
The average grade
for an exam is 74,
and the standard
deviation is 7. If
12% of the class is
given As, and the
grades are curved
to follow a normal
distribution, what is
the lowest possible
A and the highest
possible B?
SAMPLE PROBLEM
To qualify for a police
academy, candidates
must score in the top
10% on a general
abilities test. Assume
the test scores are
normally distributed and
the test has a mean of
200 and a standard
deviation of 20. Find the
lowest possible score to
qualify.
SAMPLE PROBLEM
Gauges are used to reject
all components for which a
certain dimension is not
within the specification
1.50 ± d. It is known that
this measurement is
normally distributed with
mean 1.50 and standard
deviation 0.2. Determine
the value d such that the
specifications “cover” 95%
of the measurements.
SAMPLE PROBLEM
For a medical study, a
researcher wishes to select
people in the middle 60% of
the population based on blood
pressure. Assuming that blood
pressure readings are
normally distributed, and the
mean systolic blood pressure
is 120 and the standard
deviation is 8, find the upper
and lower readings that would
qualify people to participate in
the study.
Condition Before Approximation

𝑛∙𝑝 ≥5 𝑛∙𝑞 ≥5
CORRECTION FOR CONTINUITY

● A correction for continuity is a correction


employed when a continuous distribution is
used to approximate a discrete distribution.
SAMPLE PROBLEM
A magazine
reported that 6%
of American
drivers read the
newspaper while
driving. If 300
drivers are
selected at
random, find the
probability that
exactly 25 say
they read the
newspaper while
driving.
SAMPLE PROBLEM
Ten percent of
Americans are
allergic to
ragweed. If a
random
sample of 200
people is
selected, find
the probability
that 10 or
more will be
allergic to
ragweed.
SAMPLE PROBLEM
A multiple-choice quiz
has 200 questions
each with 4 possible
answers of which
only 1 is the correct
answer. What is the
probability that sheer
guesswork yields
from 25 to 30 correct
answers for 80 of the
200 problems about
which the student has
no knowledge?
SAMPLE PROBLEM
The probability
that a patient
recovers from a
rare blood
disease is 0.4. If
100 people are
known to have
contracted this
disease, what is
the probability
that less than
30 survive?
SAMPLE PROBLEMS
One-sixth of the male
freshmen entering a
large state school are
out-of-state students.
If the students are
assigned at random to
the dormitories, 180 to
a building, what is the
probability that in a
given dormitory at
least one-fifth of the
students are from out
of state?
When can we use the normal approximation?

● For sufficiently large values of λ, (say


λ>1,000), the Normal Distribution is an
excellent approximation
● If λ is greater than about 10, then the
Normal Distribution is a good approximation
if an appropriate continuity correction is
performed.
NORMAL APPROXIMATION TO POISSON
SAMPLE PROBLEM
The annual number of
earthquakes registering
at least 2.5 on the Richter
Scale and having an
epicenter within 40 miles
of downtown Memphis
follows a Poisson
distribution with mean
6.5. What is the
probability that at least 9
such earthquakes will
strike next year?
SAMPLE PROBLEM
Suppose that at a certain
automobile plant the
average number of work
stoppages per day due to
equipment problems during
the production process is
12.0. What is the
approximate probability of
having 15 or fewer work
stoppages due to equipment
problems on any given day?
SAMPLE PROBLEM
In a factory there
are 45 accidents per
year and the
number of accidents
per year follows a
Poisson distribution.
Use the normal
approximation to
find the probability
that there are more
than 50 accidents in
a year.
“Fearless isn’t being 100%
unafraid. It’s being terrified
but jumping anyway.”

—TAYLOR
SWIFT
THANKS!
Do you have any
questions?

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