Eskom Electricity Coming Online In Years: Baseline vs Actual (years are financial years, ie June to July)

Spreadsheet by David Lipschitz, 8th July 2019

MW 2006 2007 2008

11 Grootvlei (baseline) 800
12 Grootvlei (actual)
13 Medupi (baseline)
14 Medupi (actual)
15 Kusile (baseline)
16 Kusile (actual)
17 Ingula (baseline)
18 Ingula (actual)

Grootvlei was commissioned between 1969 and 1977 (6 units x 200 MW at an efficiency of 32.9%); it was mothballed in 1989
Komati was commissioned between 1961 and 1966; mothballed between 1987 and 1990; 6 of 9 units recommissioned by 201
Arnot fully operational by 1975 after build started in 1965; 6 x 350 MW units; 3 units mothballed in 1992; Recommissioned by
Medupi Construction started in 2007, with first two units expected online in 2013;
https://it-online.co.za/2018/10/11/medupi-unit-2-comes-on-line/ "8 months ahead of schedule for unit 2", which according
https://www.energymixreport.com/kusile-power-stations-unit-3-in-operation-8-months-ahead-of-schedule-eskom/ "Kusile's
Kusile's unit 3 Synchronised in April 2019, and is expected to reach full commercial operation in November 2019
Ingula construction began in 2005

2006 2007 2008

11 Grootvlei (baseline) 4
12 Grootvlei (actual)
13 Medupi (baseline)
14 Medupi (actual)
15 Kusile (baseline)
16 Kusile (actual)
17 Ingula (baseline)
18 Ingula (actual)

2006 2007 2008

Baseline 800 0 0
Actual 0 0 0

2006 2007 2008

Baseline Totals 800 800 800
Actual Totals 0 0 0

The blue line shows when electricity was meant to be on stream according to original forecasts at time
The orange line shows actual completion
 The blue line shows when electricity was meant to be on stream according to original forecasts at time
The orange line shows actual completion
14000

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000
Grootvlei Estimated 2006
Actual 2010

0
2006 2007 2008 2009

0 2006 2007 2008

Baseline Totals 800 800 800
Actual Totals 0 0 0

Assumptions (for new build)

Baseline capacity efficiency should be 92% 92% 92%
Actual capacity efficiency is 50% 50% 50%
Can change to 76% which is overall system efficiency
Baseline kWh per anuum 6,447,360,000 6,447,360,000 6,447,360,000
Actual kWh per annum - - -
http://www.eskom.co.za/CustomerCare/TariffsAndCharges/Documents/Connect%202019_20.pdf
Nersa's Eskom Selling Price in 2019 Ran 1.02 1.02 1.02
Eskom's Actual Selling Price in 2019 Ra 0.96 0.96 0.96

Baseline potential Rands 6,576,307,200 6,576,307,200 6,576,307,200

Actual Rands - - -
Lost income 6,576,307,200 6,576,307,200 6,576,307,200
Total Lost Income 6,576,307,200 13,152,614,400 19,728,921,600

Cost of Unserved Electricity R65 per kWh

Economic Cost 65 65 65
Baseline 419,078,400,000 419,078,400,000 419,078,400,000
Actual - - -
Lost economic income 419,078,400,000 419,078,400,000 419,078,400,000
Lost VAT 54,662,400,000 54,662,400,000 54,662,400,000

Total Lost Income 419,078,400,000 838,156,800,000 1,257,235,200,000

Total Lost VAT 54,662,400,000 109,324,800,000 163,987,200,000
 ie June to July)

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

800
1588

338

ncy of 32.9%); it was mothballed in 1989 and 1990; it was meant to return to service in 2006 for peaking power; 3 units were completed in
990; 6 of 9 units recommissioned by 2012; 5 x 100 MW units; 4 x 125 MW units; Efficiency 30%
mothballed in 1992; Recommissioned by 1998; Efficiency 35.6%.

of schedule for unit 2", which according to Eskom's baseline should have been online in 2015 and actually came online in 2018
nths-ahead-of-schedule-eskom/ "Kusile's unit 3 8 months ahead of schedule; 4 years behind baseline of 2015!
eration in November 2019

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

4
2

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0 0 0 0 1926
0 800 0 0 0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

800 800 800 800 2726
0 800 800 800 800

Eskom Electricity Coming Online

Spreadsheet by David Lipschitz,
11,716 MW of new build should
Current expectations are compl

according to original forecasts at time of project build start

 Eskom Electricity Coming Online
Spreadsheet by David Lipschitz,
11,716 MW of new build should
Current expectations are compl

according to original forecasts at time of project build start

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Eskom New Build - Real Cost to the Economy - Grootvlei, Ingula, Medupi, Kusile
By David Lipschitz, 17th September 2019
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
800 800 800 800 2726
0 800 800 800 800

92% 92% 92% 92% 92%

50% 50% 50% 50% 50%

Nominal Watts 40 GW
 watts available 28,000,000,000 186,412,800,000 kWh at 76% efficiency
turnover 179,000,000,000 0.96023449033543 Eskom Average Selling Price

6,447,360,000 6,447,360,000 6,447,360,000 6,447,360,000 21,969,379,200

- 3,504,000,000 3,504,000,000 3,504,000,000 3,504,000,000
2019_20.pdf
1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02
0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96

6,576,307,200 6,576,307,200 6,576,307,200 6,576,307,200 22,408,766,784

- 3,363,840,000 3,363,840,000 3,363,840,000 3,363,840,000
6,576,307,200 3,212,467,200 3,212,467,200 3,212,467,200 19,044,926,784
26,305,228,800 29,517,696,000 32,730,163,200 35,942,630,400 54,987,557,184

65 65 65 65 65
419,078,400,000 419,078,400,000 419,078,400,000 419,078,400,000 1,428,009,648,000
- 218,649,600,000 218,649,600,000 218,649,600,000 218,649,600,000
419,078,400,000 200,428,800,000 200,428,800,000 200,428,800,000 1,209,360,048,000
54,662,400,000 26,142,886,957 26,142,886,957 26,142,886,957 157,742,614,957

1,676,313,600,000 1,876,742,400,000 2,077,171,200,000 2,277,600,000,000 3,486,960,048,000

218,649,600,000 244,792,486,957 270,935,373,913 297,078,260,870 454,820,875,826
 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

794 1588 794

794 1588 1588
1600 800 1600 800
800 800
1014
1014 338

power; 3 units were completed in 2008

y came online in 2018

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

1 2 1
1 2 2
2 1 2 1
1 1
3
3 1

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

3408 2388 2394 800 0
0 794 1814 1926 2388

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

6134 8522 10916 11716 11716
800 1594 3408 5334 7722

m Electricity Coming Online In Years: Baseline vs Actual (years are financial years, ie June to July)
adsheet by David Lipschitz, 8th July 2019
16 MW of new build should have been completed by 2017
ent expectations are completion by 2020
m Electricity Coming Online In Years: Baseline vs Actual (years are financial years, ie June to July)
adsheet by David Lipschitz, 8th July 2019
16 MW of new build should have been completed by 2017
ent expectations are completion by 2020

2016 Baseline
Medupi: 1 unit = 794 MW (Medu
Kusile: 2 units = 1,600 MW

2015
Medupi: 2 units = 1,588 MW
Kusile: 1 unit = 800 MW

2014 Baseline
Medupi: 1 unit = 794 MW
Kusile: 2 units = 1,600 MW
Ingula: 3 units = 1,014 MW

2013 Baseline (Original Forecast)

Medupi: 2 units = 1,588 MW
Ingula: 1 unit = 388
2015 Actual
Medupi: 1 unit = 794 MW

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Baseline Totals Actual Totals

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

6134 8522 10916 11716 11716
800 1594 3408 5334 7722

92% 92% 92% 92% 92%

50% 50% 50% 50% 50%

SA Economy check 394 billion US$ 394,000,000,000

Actual Sales 186 TWH US$ to R 15
5,910,000,000,000

49,435,132,800 68,680,502,400 87,974,227,200 94,421,587,200 94,421,587,200

3,504,000,000 6,981,720,000 14,927,040,000 23,362,920,000 33,822,360,000

1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02

0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96

50,423,835,456 70,054,112,448 89,733,711,744 96,310,018,944 96,310,018,944

3,363,840,000 6,702,451,200 14,329,958,400 22,428,403,200 32,469,465,600
47,059,995,456 63,351,661,248 75,403,753,344 73,881,615,744 63,840,553,344
102,047,552,640 165,399,213,888 240,802,967,232 314,684,582,976 378,525,136,320

65 65 65 65 65
3,213,283,632,000 4,464,232,656,000 5,718,324,768,000 6,137,403,168,000 6,137,403,168,000
218,649,600,000 435,659,328,000 931,447,296,000 1,457,846,208,000 2,110,515,264,000
2,994,634,032,000 4,028,573,328,000 4,786,877,472,000 4,679,556,960,000 4,026,887,904,000
390,604,438,957 525,466,086,261 624,375,322,435 610,376,994,783 525,246,248,348

6,481,594,080,000 10,510,167,408,000 15,297,044,880,000 19,976,601,840,000 24,003,489,744,000

845,425,314,783 1,370,891,401,043 1,995,266,723,478 2,605,643,718,261 3,130,889,966,609
 2019 2020 2021 2022

794

800 800 800 800

2019 2020 2021 2022

1 1 1 1

2019 2020 2021 2022

0 0 0 0
800 1594 800 800

2019 2020 2021 2022

11716 11716 11716 11716
8522 10116 10916 11716

ne to July)
ne to July)

2017 Baseline
Kusile: 1 unit = 800 MW (Kusile meant to be complete)

6 Baseline
dupi: 1 unit = 794 MW (Medupi meant to be complete) 2021 F
le: 2 units = 1,600 MW Kusile:

2019 Forecast
Kusile: 1 unit = 800 MW
2018 Actual
Medupi: 2 units = 1,588 MW
Kusile: 1 unit = 800 MW

2017 Actual
Medup:i 2 units = 1,588 MW
Ingula: 1 unit = 388 MW

2016 Actual:
Medupi: 1 unit = 794 MW
Ingula: 3 units = 1,104 MW

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

2019 2020 2021 2022

11716 11716 11716 11716
8522 10116 10916 11716

92% 92% 92% 92%

50% 50% 50% 50%
 94,421,587,200 94,421,587,200 94,421,587,200 94,421,587,200
37,326,360,000 44,308,080,000 47,812,080,000 51,316,080,000

1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02

0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96

96,310,018,944 96,310,018,944 96,310,018,944 96,310,018,944

35,833,305,600 42,535,756,800 45,899,596,800 49,263,436,800
60,476,713,344 53,774,262,144 50,410,422,144 47,046,582,144
439,001,849,664 492,776,111,808 543,186,533,952 590,233,116,096

65 65 65 65
6,137,403,168,000 6,137,403,168,000 6,137,403,168,000 6,137,403,168,000
2,329,164,864,000 2,764,824,192,000 2,983,473,792,000 3,202,123,392,000
3,808,238,304,000 3,372,578,976,000 3,153,929,376,000 2,935,279,776,000
496,726,735,304 439,901,605,565 411,382,092,522 382,862,579,478

27,811,728,048,000 31,184,307,024,000 34,338,236,400,000 37,273,516,176,000

3,627,616,701,913 4,067,518,307,478 4,478,900,400,000 4,861,762,979,478
 2022 Forecast
Kusile: 1 unit = 800 MW

2021 Forecast
Kusile:2020
1 unit = 800 MW
Forecast
Medupi: 1 unit = 794 MW
Kusile: 1 unit = 800 MW
2019 Forecast
Kusile: 1 unit = 800 MW

2019 2020 2021 2022

0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0