Information Fusion 50 (2019) 92–111

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Information Fusion
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/inffus

Full Length Article

Data fusion and machine learning for industrial prognosis: Trends and
perspectives towards Industry 4.0
Alberto Diez-Olivan a, Javier Del Ser a,b,c,∗, Diego Galar a,d, Basilio Sierra e
a
TECNALIA, Donostia-San Sebastián 20009, Spain
b
Department of Communications Engineering, University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU), Bilbao 48013, Spain
c
Basque Center for Applied Mathematics (BCAM), Bilbao, Bizkaia 48009, Spain
d
Department of Civil, Environmental and Natural Resources Engineering, Operation, Maintenance and Acoustics, Luleå University of Technology, Luleå, Sweden
e
Department of Computer Sciences and Artificial Intelligence, University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU), Donostia-San Sebastián 20018, Spain

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Keywords: The so-called “smartization” of manufacturing industries has been conceived as the fourth industrial revolution
Data-driven prognosis or Industry 4.0, a paradigm shift propelled by the upsurge and progressive maturity of new Information and Com-
Data fusion munication Technologies (ICT) applied to industrial processes and products. From a data science perspective, this
Machine learning
paradigm shift allows extracting relevant knowledge from monitored assets through the adoption of intelligent
Industry 4.0
monitoring and data fusion strategies, as well as by the application of machine learning and optimization meth-
ods. One of the main goals of data science in this context is to effectively predict abnormal behaviors in industrial
machinery, tools and processes so as to anticipate critical events and damage, eventually causing important eco-
nomical losses and safety issues. In this context, data-driven prognosis is gradually gaining attention in different
industrial sectors. This paper provides a comprehensive survey of the recent developments in data fusion and
machine learning for industrial prognosis, placing an emphasis on the identification of research trends, niches of
opportunity and unexplored challenges. To this end, a principled categorization of the utilized feature extraction
techniques and machine learning methods will be provided on the basis of its intended purpose: analyze what
caused the failure (descriptive), determine when the monitored asset will fail (predictive) or decide what to do
so as to minimize its impact on the industry at hand (prescriptive). This threefold analysis, along with a discus-
sion on its hardware and software implications, intends to serve as a stepping stone for future researchers and
practitioners to join the community investigating on this vibrant field.

1. Introduction
Industry 4.0 is a global modernization movement in the manufactur-
ing industry towards the adaptation of recent advances in the ICT realm:
new communication systems and protocols, cyber security standards,
multi-device displays, mobile and compact communication devices with
evergrowing computational capabilities and deployable Artificial Intel-
ligence methods, among many others. In parallel with the development
of this worldwide trend, Internet has grown at unprecedented scales to
become ubiquitous in all economic and social aspects of the human life.
The industrial manufacturing sector has also been clearly affected by
this change of paradigm, resulting in the widespread adoption of new
digital technologies within its processes and assets. Indeed the merge of
physical and digital worlds lays at the core of this industrial revolution,
establishing the basis for smart factories of the future.
This paradigm shift has been defined as the fourth industrial rev-
olution or Industry 4.0 (Industrie 4.0 in Germany [1–3] or Industrial
Internet in USA [4]), on the basis of the end-to-end deployment of the
aforementioned ICT advances in production processes, covering from

Abbreviations: ANFIS, Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System; ANNs, Artificial Neural Networks; BPNN, Back Propagation Neural Networks; DBN, Deep Belief
Networks; DWT, Discrete Wavelet Transformation; EM, Expectation Maximization; EWMA, Exponentially Weighted Moving Average; FFT, Fast Fourier Transform;
FPCA, Functional Principal Component Analysis; GMM, Gaussian Mixture Models; GRBMs, Gaussian–Bernoulli Restricted Boltzmann Machines; GRNN, General
Regression Neural Network; HMM, Hidden Markov Model; kNN, k-Nearest Neighbors; KDE, Kernel Density Estimator; LAD, Logical Analysis of Data; LOF, Local
Outlier Factor; PCA, Principal Component Analysis; PoF, Physics of failure; RBM, Restricted Boltzmann Machines; RNN, Recurrent Neural Networks; SARMA, Seasonal
Autoregressive Moving Average; SBM, Similarity Based Modeling; SOM-MQE, Self-Organizing Map Minimize Quantization Error; SVMs, Support Vector Machines;
VCM, Vibration-based Condition Monitoring.
∗
Corresponding author at: TECNALIA Research & Innovation. P. Tecnologico, Ed. 700., Derio, Bizkaia 48170, Spain.
E-mail address: javier.delser@tecnalia.com (J. Del Ser).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inffus.2018.10.005
Received 6 July 2018; Received in revised form 25 September 2018; Accepted 14 October 2018
Available online 15 October 2018
1566-2535/© 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
A. Diez-Olivan et al.
the product design phase to the product life-cycle management through
manufacturing and related logistics phases. Traditional production sys-
tems are typically static, hierarchical processes that incur disruptive
changes and important costs when adapting production policies and
product portfolios to the requirements imposed by the market. Cur-
rent market demand more flexible solutions, with high levels of produc-
tion customization to be met while ensuring the profitability of smaller
product runs. After-sales services are mainly focused on product main-
tenance, hence this aspect is of equal concern at this point.
Based on the ab definition of Industry 4.0 introduced above, we can
identify three levels of implementation of technology from a production
perspective:
• Vertical integration: in the context of production and automation,
this concept refers to the integration of diverse ICT systems into
different hierarchical levels, from the very basic ones (e.g. sensors
and actuators) to the highest levels of production management, ex-
ecution, planning and scheduling. This level of integration supports
manufacturing processes, making them more flexible.
• Horizontal integration: this level includes the integration of ICT tech-
nologies into mechanisms and agents involved in the different stages
of the manufacturing processes and business planning; this means ex-
changing energy and information within a company (e.g. input and
output logistics, production and commercialization), and between
companies and entities (value networks).
• Circular integration: vertical and horizontal integrations are joined
to link the end user and the product life cycle. This integration ends
the production loop; therefore, a whole end-to-end digitalization is
fully achieved, from the initial design stages, to planning and manu-
facturing, the logistics and resources management mechanisms and,
finally, to the end user and product related services.
The above concepts are increasingly embraced in strategic plans of
entities and companies all over Europe, America and Asia [5]. Examples
abound: to mention a few, the technological prototype coined as Digital
Factory or Industry 4.0 Demonstrator was created in UK to embody a
living laboratory in which industrial stakeholders can explore and assess
the potentiality of smart ICT technologies for their production processes
[6]. In further detail, the demonstrator consists of a real production line
connected to a 3D virtual factory, designed to demonstrate the capabil-
ities of customization and personalization. Another exemplifying case
is the Basque Country region in Spain, with a clear governmental push
towards prioritizing science, technology and innovation efforts of its re-
search ecosystem towards advanced manufacturing and Industry 4.0 so
as to meet the goals of Horizon 2020, as specified in the Basque Industry
4.0 strategy [7]. Likewise, in recent years German and US governments
have promoted separate yet similar initiatives to accelerate the adop-
tion of the Internet of Things (IoT) and smart analytics in manufactur-
ing industries towards improving the overall performance, quality, and
controllability of their manufacturing processes [8]. Other contributions
in the literature have also stressed on the crucial role played nowadays
by IoT and cyber physical systems as technology enablers for predic-
tive production systems, an intelligent manufacturing system wherein
networked assets are equipped with self-awareness to predict, find root
cause, and reconfigure faulty events automatically [8,9].
The increasing amount of information available in industrial plants
motivates the adoption of data fusion and machine learning methods
for addressing specific industrial requirements and needs [10]. A spe-
cial focus is placed on prognosis, namely, the capability to estimate
and anticipate events of interest regarding industrial assets and produc-
tion processes [11]. There lies indeed the core challenge of the Indus-
try 4.0 paradigm from a data science perspective: data-driven prognos-
tic approaches aim at predicting when an abnormal behavior is likely
to arise within the monitored process, providing further insights such
as its severity and impact on the plant performance. For this reason it
becomes particularly interesting to characterize normality properly to-
wards unveiling degradation patterns or trends. Following the generic
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Information Fusion 50 (2019) 92–111
diagram in Fig. 1, the idea is to characterize behavioral patterns of in-
terest on the basis of the data monitored from the process or asset un-
der study (training data) by means of mathematical algorithms (machine
learning models). This acquired knowledge can be then applied to new
unseen data (test data) to tackle a wide variety of problem (hypothesis),
including prediction, classification and anomaly detection, among oth-
ers. This task is specially challenging nowadays, since it involves pro-
cessing and analyzing huge amounts of data and additional information
coming from different, diverse monitoring systems and smart devices.
When data models are to be designed and deployed in an industrial
setup, the de facto methodology for data-driven industrial prognosis is
the so-called Cross Industry Standard Process for Data Mining (CRISP)
shown in Fig. 2. This methodology builds upon the standard process
cycle for data mining towards conceiving it as a set of steps along a
workflow: from business and data understanding to the evaluation and
deployment of the produced models, going through data preparation
and modeling phases. Once models have been deployed on an online
monitoring platform, their output can be a recommendation, a warning,
a critical alarm or even an optimal planning and scheduling of mainte-
nance operations.
Aiming to achieve good performance scores, the modeling step must
be enriched with diverse data collected from different sources of infor-
mation. In this context multiple sensor data fusion is usually performed
to provide the prognostic models with consolidated information corre-
lated with the condition of the industrial assets and production processes
under study [12] or the activity of the workers that interact with them
[13]. Of special interest are the operational parameters and the spe-
cific process conditions, e.g. asset load, working hours or failure rates.
Additional relevant sources of information are contextual variables, e.g.
external conditions, such as temperature or humidity, and expert knowl-
edge about the process under study. Whenever this latter source of in-
formation is available and it can be modeled and integrated into the
prognostic approach, it can support the learning phase and enhance the
obtained results significantly. Thus, more complex and human-centered
frameworks can be found beyond physical and contextual monitoring
data, combining lower level information and high level knowledge [14].
Another approach is to artificially obtain partial predictions that can
be smartly combined by means of data-driven model hybridization or
ensemble methods to produce a more robust prediction, and even to
provide a recommendation or maintenance operation to avoid the en-
visaged faulty condition [15].
This paper capitalizes on the great momentum that industrial prog-
nostic models have gained within the Industry 4.0 paradigm by exam-
ining the most recent and influential literature related to data fusion
and machine learning methods for this particular class of data-based
modeling problems. For the sake of an structured survey we will here-
after classify prognostic models depending on the hypothesis or goal for
which they are designed. As such, we will deal with descriptive prognos-
tic models (e.g. those for unsupervised pattern classification and health
management), predictive prognostic models (correspondingly, embrac-
ing those for condition-based and predictive maintenance) and prescrip-
tive prognosis models (namely, those whose output drive optimized pro-
duction schedules, life cycle optimization and supply chain management
and logistics). Given the strong interdependencies found among assets
and processes in complex industrial plants, it is often the case that prog-
nostic methods are applied not to a single asset, a product or a process,
but to several assets at the same time, thus involving the confluence
of very heterogeneous data sources in the model design. Therefore, the
survey also places a special emphasis on the role that data fusion has
taken in the advent of industrial prognosis, emerging lately as a data
preprocessing phase of utmost necessity in upsurging data-intensive in-
dustrial ecosystems. Our literature analysis concludes by identifying a
set of challenges in this field that remain insufficiently addressed to date,
which are further discussed in detail so as to stimulate research efforts
invested in such directions.
A. Diez-Olivan et al.
Fig. 1. Generic schematic diagram of a machine learning process.
Fig. 2. The CRISP methodology for data-driven industrial prognosis.
The remainder of this manuscript is structured according to the over-
arching goals of the paper as exposed above: Section 2 introduces and
elaborates on the literature analysis central to our study by following
the adopted threefold classification in descriptive (Section 2.1), predic-
tive (Section 2.2) and prescriptive (Section 2.3) models for industrial
prognosis. Implications of the implementation and deployment of data
fusion and prognostic models on industrial hardware and communica-
tions are identified and discussed in Section 3. A critical argumentation
and analysis of the research niches, opportunities and open challenges
stemming from the study is provided in Section 4. Finally, Section 5 ends
the paper by drawing concluding remarks and summarizing the research
paths that deserve most efforts from the community in the near future.
2. Data fusion and machine learning for industrial prognosis
When inspecting the amount of literature related to industrial prog-
nosis several criteria can be embraced for its classification and analysis,
such as the industrial sector under scope, the nature of the data han-
dled by the models or the type of asset/process that benefits from the
application of prognostic models. However, this study departs from the
conception of prognosis as a data-based workflow aimed at solving one
out of three different goals:
1. Describe the use case under study based on the data captured in the
industrial plant, without taking any assumptions on the root cause
of the problem and/or the presence of patterns of interest within
the retrieved data. Therefore, descriptive prognostic models ignore
any a priori assumption that could bias their obtained insights from
data, hence focusing on the extraction of added value in a blind,
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Information Fusion 50 (2019) 92–111
unbiased fashion. This is the case of unsupervised machine learning,
with clustering techniques and outlier detection methods lying at the
heart of many practical cases of industrial prognosis reported so far.
2. Predict the time at which a fault in a monitored equipment will occur,
and eventually its severity and coverage over the production chain.
In this case predictive prognostic models rely on a dataset of fault
events held in the past, from which a learning algorithm learns the
pattern correlating the captured data from the monitored asset to a
target variable characterizing the fault to be predicted (e.g. a prob-
ability of occurrence, a measure of severity or its location within
the process chain). From a machine learning perspective, supervised
learning models are at the forefront of this category.
3. Prescribe optimal actions as a result of a fault alarm over the plant.
When the alarm is risen by a predictive model before the fault occurs,
prescriptive prognosis models actions aim at reducing its chances to
occur by modifying working parameters and variables of the indus-
trial process eventually affected by the fault. By the contrary, if the
alarm results from a confirmed fault, models from this category are
rather used to minimize its impact over the production of the indus-
try, e.g. by optimally rerouting assets to non-faulty production lines,
or by allocating human resources for unexpected maintenance opera-
tions. Such a casuistry is often modeled as an optimization problem,
whose objective(s) are often driven by the outcome of predictive
prognostic models. Therefore, optimization solvers prevail within
this category.
It is noteworthy to clarify that the above classification does not im-
ply that contributions in the literature related to industrial prognosis
must be discriminated and categorized exclusively as an instance of de-
A. Diez-Olivan et al.
Fig. 3. Classification of industrial scenarios and data-driven analytical methods for industrial prognosis reviewed in this work, along with the most representative
references for each category. Sections 2.1–2.3 elaborate on each of these identified categories.
scriptive, predictive or prescriptive prognosis. Indeed, it is often the case
that a certain application scenario requires hybridizing models of differ-
ent kind for manifold purposes. The aforementioned example combin-
ing predictive prognosis – e.g. to predict the probability of a machine to
undergo a fault – with prescriptive prognosis – to tune the machine con-
figuration towards less likely faults to happen – is among the most rep-
resentative and intuitive exemplary scenarios that illustrate this noted
mixture of approaches.
With this methodological criterion in mind, we now comprehen-
sively examine the latest literature related to industrial prognosis. Each
of the analyses provided in what follows identifies and highlights tech-
nological trends in terms of models and data fusion techniques, as well
as industrial sectors where the study of data-based prognosis has been
particularly notable in recent years. Fig. 3 overviews the scenarios and
data-driven methods for industrial prognostics reviewed in this paper.
2.1. Descriptive prognosis
Briefly stated, the main purpose of descriptive prognostics is to sum-
marize data towards unveiling unknown patterns beneath them. In the
context of intelligent monitoring of complex industrial processes and/or
assets, descriptive models also imply statistically inferring insights from
data. As a result, this gained information from data can help detecting
events of interest or to estimate the health status of the industrial asset,
product or process under study. Indeed, one of the big challenges fac-
ing Industry 4.0 revolves on how to optimally and automatically infer
patterns of interest and characterize knowledge and critical events from
the monitored data [110]. The aim is to use such patterns to establish
the health status of the assets in an online fashion for fault detection and
diagnosis [111,112]. Current techniques and procedures still hinge on
manual inspections and basic control systems, neither fully exploiting
the available data nor considering the advantages of data analytics and
processing capabilities [113].
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Information Fusion 50 (2019) 92–111
In this regard, selected contributions for descriptive prognosis used
in Industry 4.0 setups are presented in Fig. 4 and Table 1, which are
discussed in more detail in following subsections.
2.1.1. Pattern recognition and classification
Machine learning algorithms and data fusion strategies are usually
employed to find patterns in data and use this knowledge in industrial
scenarios [114]. The most common approach deals with modeling be-
haviors of interest from operational data [115,116].
Data-driven behavior characterization consists of grouping similar
data into datasets, which physically represent the same operational con-
dition. Within formed groups, there are data points far from the identi-
fied pattern; these corresponds to a distinctive property (e.g. the mean
point or the group distribution). Such patterns could be very significant
to identify behaviors linked to data themselves, or to detect or infer
possible faults or anomalous operational conditions. Large groups, or
groups that are close together, usually imply normal behavioral pat-
terns, whereas small groups or events that are far from the pattern (of
the same group or a big group) imply anomalies or outliers (e.g. noise
and transient data). Unfortunately, the industrial scenarios for data-
driven prognosis do not always provide a proper tracking of past ab-
normal behaviors or maintenance operations performed to prevent or
correct a faulty condition, thus the learner is only given unlabeled ex-
amples. Therefore, the characterization problem must be addressed from
an unsupervised learning perspective, by which the dataset does not
contain a priori a target to be predicted [117]. In these circumstances
we deal with a dataset X composed by N data samples [𝐱𝑛 ]𝑁 𝑛=1
such
that 𝐱𝑛 ≐ [𝑥𝑛1 , … , 𝑥𝑛𝑀 ], with each feature or predictor xm taking values
from a discrete or continuous alphabet 𝑚 . In an unsupervised approach
to industrial prognosis, clustering is the most typically used technique,
whereby instances are grouped by their similarity to each other given a
metric of similarity SIM(𝐱𝑛 , 𝐱𝑛 ). Such a metric can be particularized to
′
meet the specificities of the prognosis problem at hand.
A. Diez-Olivan et al.
Fig. 4. Solutions and industrial sectors addressed for descriptive prognosis.
In [18], for instance, the above schema is adopted by applying de-
cision trees and fuzzy modeling to vibration signals in rotatory equip-
ment. A data simulator is used to generate faults under certain con-
trolled conditions, which also corresponds to the strategy followed by
the authors in [16]. Different features and patterns are then extracted
from condition monitoring data and process variables, fused and finally
used to train the models. In [19] a density-based approach (by which
instances are grouped based on a similarity threshold imposed on the
value of SIM(𝐱𝑛 , 𝐱𝑛 )) is applied to learn patterns that correspond to sim-
′
ilar groups of data in a reduced feature space; then the distances of the
patterns and new process signals are studied. In a similar framework
[23], a multi-sensor fusion is performed at the feature level for cutting
parameters and vibration signals; the aim is to characterize and rec-
ognize different machining conditions in a milling machine. A Support
Vector Machine (SVM) approach is adopted due to its regularization
and generalization properties, as well as its good accuracy and flexibil-
ity when modeling behaviors of interest.
The pattern classification approach is often applied to character-
ize training data. In this case failure mode analysis aims at identifying
the most probable causes of confirmed abnormal behaviors and failure
episodes so as to predict and avoid them in the future [118]. When la-
bels are available, supervised learning and reinforcement learning can
be applied to train a classifier and act on the monitored asset depending
on the predicted outcome of the model. This learning setup corresponds
to a supervised framework, in which the dataset comprises not only the
aforementioned set of examples X, but also values for the target feature
associated to each of such examples, namely, 𝐘 = [𝑦1 , … , 𝑦𝑁 ], with 
denoting its alphabet [119]. The target feature can be continuous or
discrete, usually representing a characteristic related to the diagnosis.
A label can be also estimated by tracking events of interest or based on
maintenance operations carried out in the past. Data from such kinds of
events are assumed to correspond to normality. Similarly, when a cor-
rective action is performed, the preceding data can potentially repre-
sent abnormal behaviors. Under this premise, fault diagnosis is usually
applied in a straightforward fashion, once features have been inferred,
selected and combined. In some contributions environmental conditions
are used as context to better describe and understand the faulty condi-
tion to be classified [17]. In [24], quantile regression forests are utilized
to optimize production in broiler farming on the basis of environmen-
tal indicators and production and welfare parameters. In [20,21], fault
detection and classification on wind turbines is performed by combin-
ing acoustic and vibratory signals and texture features from time domain
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Information Fusion 50 (2019) 92–111
signals, respectively. Similarly, the work in [22] adopts a Deep Learning
approach (specifically, RBM) to fuse fault evidence and reason vectors
for fault diagnosis of high-speed train equipment.
All in all, finding patterns within monitored data usually requires a
deep knowledge of the problem and the underlying physics of the pro-
cess. This stringent requirement in descriptive prognosis paves the way
towards one of the niches of opportunity in this field (specialized feature
engineering), which is later discussed in the corresponding section.
2.1.2. Health management
Health management of industrial assets and production processes
requires accurately estimating their health status. The survey by
Schwabacher and Goebel [120] underpins fault detection, fault diag-
nostics and failure prognostics as key elements in Integrated Systems
Health Management, further emphasizing the potential of Artificial In-
telligence for their implementation. To this end, feature extractors, prob-
lem descriptors and Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) are developed to
reduce the complexity of raw data, making patterns related to domain
knowledge more discriminable for the learning algorithms to be sub-
sequently applied. The resulting models are more meaningful and can
accurately trace the health status of the assets over time. Nevertheless,
this process is difficult and very time consuming to perform, because
data preprocessing, feature extraction/engineering and results assess-
ment usually call for the involvement of domain experts, as highlighted
in [25] with relation to environmental assets.
Automatic selection of features is applied when the support of do-
main experts cannot be put into practice. A ranking of the most relevant
features can be obtained given their importance when solving a prob-
lem, e.g. variance explanation or impurity decrease given a target fea-
ture and a set of input features. Some machine learning algorithms can
deal with feature transformation and extraction in an automatic manner,
as part of their learning framework. This is the case of Deep Learning
models and Kernel methods, for instance. They perform data transfor-
mations and learn high-level features to operate in a high-dimensional,
implicit feature space that, except for image data, cannot be straight-
forward interpreted [121]. This noted drawback stimulates a focus shift
onto the recent advances made in regards to automated feature engi-
neering and model construction [122], which are certainly among the
most promising research paths to follow in the near future.
Notwithstanding the advent of new feature extraction techniques as
the one cited above, most contributions have addressed feature con-
struction by applying elaborated signal processing and feature extrac-
A. Diez-Olivan et al. Information Fusion 50 (2019) 92–111

Table 1
Comparison of representative works on descriptive prognostics.

Ref. Method Data used Industrial sector Assets involved Main goal

[16] LAD Combination of controlled, manipulated and Chemical processes Process components (e.g. Fault diagnosis
measured variables (i.e. valves’ positions, the two-phase reactor, a
reactor agitator speed and process variables like condenser and a
pressures, temperatures, flowrates or recycle compressor)
concentrations)
[17] Outlier detection Failures, environmental measures (the context) and Railway Train doors Fault detection and
through EM events described by type, timestamp, subsystem, explanation
disturbance, duration, severity and description
[18] Decision trees and fuzzy Feature extraction and combination of data from Manufacturing (generic) Spur gears in rotary Pattern recognition and
classifier condition monitoring vibration signals machines fault diagnostics
[19] KDE and distance-based Combining fastener features (i.e. diameter and Manufacturing Blind fasteners Pattern classification
classification height of the formed heads) with torque-rotation (aerospace)
signals
[20] Deep Random Forest Fusion of acoustic emissions and vibratory signals Wind energy Wind turbine gearbox Fault diagnosis
[21] Bag Tree Statistical, wavelet, granulometric and Gabor Wind energy Wind turbines Fault detection and
features from time domain signals acquired from classification
the operating wind turbine (e.g. acceleration at
tower bottom)
[22] DBN based on RBM Fusion of fault evidence and reason vectors Railway Vehicle on-board Fault diagnosis
equipments (VOBEs)
for high speed trains
[23] DWT and SVMs Multi-sensor fusion at feature level (i.e. cutting force Manufacturing (generic) Cutting tool and milling Machining condition
and vibration signals and cutting parameters) machine recognition
[24] Quantile regression Environmental indicators and production and Agriculture Farms Production optimization
forests welfare parameters (i.e. weights and welfare data) and animal welfare
[26] Framework based on GPS and wind velocity sensors output Construction (civil Bridges Structural status
hybrid adaptive structures) estimation and risk
resonant theory ANN analysis
and adaptive fuzzy
inference
[27] Bayesian Inference Multistage data fusion at component and global Manufacturing (generic) Electric motor, two Health status assessment
levels (e.g. acceleration, current, voltage and gearboxes and a load
temperature)
[28] FFT, kNN and K-means Fusion of vibration-based features from Construction (civil Bridges Damage detection
accelerometer data and locations of the monitored structures)
areas
[29] GRBMs Deep statistical feature learning from vibration Manufacturing (generic) Rotary machinery Fault diagnosis and
measurements health status
estimation
[30] KDE and SVMs Operational data (e.g. speed, temperatures, load, Maritime Diesel engine subsystems Health status estimation
humidity, pressure, voltage or intensity) and
environmental conditions
[31] GMM, SOM-MQE and CMS data and SCADA variables (i.e. wind speed and Wind energy Wind turbine Health assessment
PCA direction, output power, pitch angle and vibration components (e.g.
signals) rotor, gearbox and
generator)
[32] Model-based reasoning Sensor fusion of real-time monitoring of system Aerospace Civil aircrafts Health assessment and
status (e.g. control parameters, mission status and fault diagnosis
aircraft structure)

tion techniques to extract sensitive features symptomatically detecting
changes in the health condition of the asset, as proposed in [32] in re-
gards to the physical subsystems of an aircraft. In [26], for instance, a
composite structure health index for risk analysis is computed using a
hybrid adaptive resonant theory of neural networks and adaptive fuzzy
inference, as well as a data fusion framework. Li et al. [29] propose a
deep statistical learning of features from vibration measurements com-
bined to establish the health status of rotary machinery by means of
a GRBM. Alternatively, the statistical analysis of vibration data from
the industrial asset in time and/or frequency domain has been widely
explored [123], combining Condition Monitoring System (CMS) data
and Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition (SCADA) variables [31].
Time series analysis is commonly applied to extract damage and fault-
sensitive features from data. Time series models are used to fit the vibra-
tion data; damage indicators are then obtained by comparing new data
to the learned models. The authors in [27] propose a multistage com-
bination of time-domain and frequency-domain features to assess the
health status of critical equipment holistically. Similarly, in [28], vibra-
tion signals are combined with the locations of the monitored areas,
making the damage identification more accurate than the same model
without location information.
In several industrial scenarios, available labels are related to critical
events that occurred in the past. As mentioned, the strategy most com-
monly used when dealing with time series data consists of selecting a
set of data before and after the registered label (e.g. in a time window
of one or several months). Then, each set of data can be contextualized
on the basis of the corresponding event. For instance, if a maintenance
operation or an overhaul occurred at a given time instant, the set of data
selected after that event in time can be considered to categorize normal-
ity, whereas the set of data selected before it must be further analyzed
in order to infer and model the trend leading to the event of interest.
This allows combining labeled and unlabeled instances in training data
under a semi-supervised learning framework, also referred to as weakly
supervised learning [124]. In general the instance-label relationship de-
termines the problem to be addressed having, for instance, multi-label
frameworks in which instances are associated to one or more labels at
the same time, i.e. several symptoms arising at the same time instant, or
instances known to belong to different categories, i.e. several unknown
symptoms that occur at different time instants.

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A. Diez-Olivan et al.
Spurious and transient data can be related to unstable asset condi-
tions. These should be filtered out to train reliable normality models. Un-
der such circumstances, one of the most challenging issues when learn-
ing diagnosis and prognosis models from data is modeling the normal
behavior of the assets. The problem can be seen as a positive-unlabeled
framework in which positive samples must be automatically selected to
learn the model. Learning a model from monitoring sensor data that
characterize normality implies the absence of outliers and operational
faults. Outliers can be defined as patterns in data that do not conform
to a previously well-established notion of normal, or frequent, behavior
[125,126]. Assuming a small percentage of outliers are present in data,
their frequency normally ranges from 5% to less than 0.01% depend-
ing on the application. An automatic outlier detection process can be
done on the basis of density estimation [127] and on deviations from
expected normal, common behavior [128]. Once the outliers have been
isolated, a model that fits the resulting normal data set can be learned.
Therefore, more accurate normality models are obtained and the num-
ber of false negatives when performing fault detection tasks is reduced.
Such models can be applied in an online fashion to check real-time data
for health status assessment and fault prediction. One-class SVM, or 𝜈-
SVM, for example, allows controlling the false positive rate given by 𝜈
and can therefore be used to model normality on the basis of a small
percentage of anomalies assumed to be present in data, as proposed in
[30].
Nevertheless, in most cases, success is restricted to simulations, lab-
oratory studies and well-controlled experiments. Thus, there is limited
evidence of real structural faults; therefore, the effectiveness of the ap-
proaches remains to be validated for operational data.
2.2. Predictive prognosis
Predictive analytics is the next step up in the data processing schema.
It utilizes a variety of data fusion, statistical, modeling, and machine
learning techniques to study recent and historical data, to learn prog-
nostic models, which make accurate predictions about the future status
of the monitored asset.
The intelligent maintenance of industrial assets and production lines
is one of the most critical parts of the Industry 4.0 paradigm. A tradi-
tional preventive strategy may obtain high reliability levels if it is well
designed [129]. However, this sometimes implies over-maintaining the
assets and production lines. Equipment manufacturers are always con-
servative in their maintenance policies so that reliability is achieved, but
they assume high maintenance costs. It is well known that the failure
probability of many components is high at the beginning and end of their
operational life, following the bathtub failure pattern [130]. Therefore,
unnecessary maintenance tasks increase failure rate when a defective
item is installed or when a human mistake occurs. Moreover, preven-
tive strategies do not take into account operational contexts, such as
load profiles, number of starts or environmental parameters, and these
strongly affect components’ lifetime. Finally, preventive maintenance
is erroneously based on the idea that the probability of occurrence of
operational faults increases exponentially at a certain time. In preven-
tive strategies, components are replaced or repaired before that moment
occurs. This assumption is not true in many cases; there are several fail-
ure patterns in which failure probability never increases [131]. In such
cases, failure probability is constant in time. Thus, a component could
fail at any time. Especially relevant examples of this phenomenon are
failure patterns of electrical and electronic components, where repair
and substitution tasks at planned periods of time do not imply an im-
provement in reliability. For all these reasons, reliability increase and
cost reduction margins remain important.
Several predictive prognostics-based research projects have recently
been proposed to address complex Industry 4.0 related problems in var-
ious industrial sectors. The most relevant ones are presented in Table 2
and Fig. 5, and described in more detail in the next subsections.
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Information Fusion 50 (2019) 92–111
2.2.1. Condition-based maintenance
Condition-based maintenance (CBM) aims to anticipate a mainte-
nance operation based on evidence of degradation and deviations from
normal asset behavior [132]. When the condition of a particular system
is being observed, a set of monitoring devices and sensors must be con-
sidered. Intelligent monitoring of equipment by using sensors is essential
to acquire relevant data containing the characterization of operational
faults in physical signals; acoustic and ultrasonic sensors, accelerome-
ters, current measurements or thermocouples are usually employed for
this purpose [133,134]. In addition to these data, environmental condi-
tions and contextual information, such as temperature, pressure or hu-
midity, provide very useful information to enrich the modeling process
[135]. From such information, specific KPIs are calculated and analysed
to discover trends that can lead to a potential critical fault.
When the aim is to achieve maximum reliability, an appropriate CBM
system with monitoring capabilities must be adopted, gathering and
combining all kinds of useful sources of information simultaneously and
providing the prognostics needed to assure the correct operation of the
assets. In the work proposed by Kadri et al. [35] early alerts in the event
of abnormal situations in complex production systems (e.g. the critical
components of a paediatric emergency department) are provided by a
seasonal autoregressive moving average (SARMA)-based exponentially
weighted moving average (EWMA) anomaly detection schema. Like-
wise, the prognostic system implemented in [36] predicts the wear of
railway braking systems from condition monitoring data; an online prog-
nostics control for maintenance optimization is also provided. The re-
sulting CBM system must include data acquisition and processing, diag-
nostics and prognostics and decision-making functionalities [136]. Gen-
erated data-driven models for diagnostics and prognostics must be de-
ployed in a monitoring platform with online data acquisition and inspec-
tion capabilities [137]. Several commercial CBM systems and eMainte-
nance frameworks are already available, most of them separately using
a wide variety of potential failure indicators and data fusion strategies
that are able to integrate vibration data and operating parameters to
finally provide effective condition monitoring of the assets [38,39].
Data-driven prognostic models are the core of the whole process
since they apply the behavioral and statistical methods for fault pre-
diction and classification [138]. ANNs [139] and SVMs [140,141] are
usually applied to analyze data and infer such models, not only for main-
tenance purposes but also to optimize asset operation and reduce emis-
sions, as proposed in [33]. The use of projection methods (e.g. linear,
nonlinear and orthogonal projections to latent structures, kernel meth-
ods, or PCA) for dimensionality reduction and regression can highly sup-
port the feature extraction process [41] and make the prediction more
precise and accurate [142–144]. Nevertheless, depending on the appli-
cation and whenever it is possible, it may be beneficial to incorporate
specific knowledge directly into whichever algorithm is applied.
One of the most challenging objectives is to explicitly and automat-
ically represent and model expert knowledge [145], characterizing dif-
ferent behaviors of interest and linking them to critical faults in as-
sets and production processes. In [34], for instance, a constrained K-
means clustering based on the engine load is first applied to establish
normality based on load ranges. In [37] the maintainer experience is
integrated into the proposed intelligent maintenance system. Both ap-
proaches eventually provide comprehensive behavior modeling using
fuzzy logic. These types of methodologies are not yet commonly in-
tegrated in many industrial sectors, either because companies doubt
their benefits or there are integration drawbacks in terms of both time
and cost [146]. However, as new research appears and commercial sys-
tems are developed, demonstrating important improvements in reliabil-
ity over traditional strategies and showing attractive Return on Invest-
ment (RoI) levels, companies and maintenance suppliers will show an
increasing acceptance of these novel technologies.
However, in many industrial scenarios, the limited information on
real faults makes it challenging to obtain accurate fault prediction mod-
els [147] and simulated data are usually employed [40]. Therefore,
A. Diez-Olivan et al. Information Fusion 50 (2019) 92–111

Table 2
Comparison of representative works on predictive prognostics.

Ref. Method Data used Industrial sector Assets involved Main goal

[33] ANNs Operational parameters, environmental conditions and the Maritime Diesel engines Maintenance
electric energy consumption of the alternator
[34] Constrained K-means, fuzzy logic Operational parameters and environmental conditions Maritime Diesel engines Fault prediction
and LOF
[36] SBM Condition monitoring data (i.e. acceleration, current and Railway Braking systems PHM, wear prediction
force) and hybrid optimization from online prognostic and maintenance
control optimization
[37] Rule-based fuzzy semantic Vibration and current signals Railway Electric multiple Intelligent
inference units (EMU) maintenance
trains
[38] GRNN, BPNN and ANFIS Operating parameters (static data) fused with asset (i.e. Electrical power Gearboxes in Condition monitoring
current, load and temperature) and fault conditions electric motors
[40] Interval-valued fuzzy reasoning Combination of the system performance decay based on Manufacturing Gas turbines Condition-based
physical gas turbine measurements and fault types (aerospace) maintenance
optimization
[41] PCA and kNN Multiple sensors fusion at accelerometer and load cell data, Manufacturing Rolling element Condition-based
feature and decision level (generic) bearings monitoring and
diagnosis
[43] PoF and expert judgment Integration of condition assessment, RUL estimation based Oil and gas A three-phase Risk based condition
modeling on pressure, thickness and corrosion data and life (offshore) separation and RUL estimation
extension decision making system on a
platform
[45] kNN and discrete Bayesian filter Health indicators inferred from process variables and Aerospace Battery and RUL prediction
operational data turbofan engine
[46] GMM and L2 -regularized linear Low Power Refueling (LPR) states and their corresponding Oil and gas Gas circulators LPR state and RUL
SVM vibration profiles estimation
[47] LAD and KaplanMeier estimation Condition monitoring data and indicators based on failure Aerospace Turbofan engine RUL prediction
times and the corresponding covariates
[48] RNN-based health indicator Related-similarity features combined with time-frequency Aerospace Bearings RUL prediction
features from vibration signals
[49] Statistical approach and ANNs Knowledge extraction from condition monitoring data at Electrical power Medium Voltage RUL calculation
single product and fleet levels and High
Voltage Circuit
Breakers
[50] Adaptive functional Multi-sensor signal fusion (i.e. physical and performance Aerospace Aircraft turbofan RUL prediction
(log)-location-scale regression signals) using Multivariate FPCA engine
modeling
[52] HMM-based log-likelihood Observation sequences of data during the drilling process Manufacturing Cutting tools Health state estimation
regression (i.e. thrust-force and torque signals) and health-states (generic) and RUL prediction
labels
[54] Physics based models and Sensor, physics, and data model fusion, including extracted Aerospace Aircraft Predictive
data-driven analytics (Bayesian features maintenance, repair
inference) and overhaul

Fig. 5. Solutions and industrial sectors addressed for predictive prognostics.

99
A. Diez-Olivan et al.
maintenance strategies are focused on conservative, preventive oper-
ations [148]. The main goal is to avoid costly corrective interventions,
since the consequences of an unexpected failure could be catastrophic
[149]. In addition, incidental faults may imply an important impact in
terms of risks, costs, resources and service loss that must be minimized.
2.2.2. Predictive maintenance
To improve reliability and reduce costs, an optimal maintenance
strategy should provide a set of predictive, preventive and corrective
procedures as a result of a technical and economic analysis of ev-
ery failure mode, taking into consideration the related consequences
[150]. Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) strategies include Fail-
ure Tree Analysis and Failure Mode, and Effects and Criticality Analysis
(FMECA). Once failure modes are identified and criticality classified,
maintenance tasks are established to avoid faults [151]. When predic-
tive maintenance is technically and economically possible, it is applied.
Maximum reliability is obtained when a robust and trustworthy failure
indicator parameter is monitored. When it is not technically possible
or it is not affordable, preventive maintenance strategies are adopted.
Corrective maintenance is only used if predictive and preventive mainte-
nance strategies are not feasible. In those situations, using safety devices
to apply appropriate troubleshooting tasks or redesigning the affected
asset (e.g. installing a standby component) is required.
Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) has seen a resurgence,
with new service offerings in industry for guaranteed uptime for cost-
containing CBM implementations. A chief component of PHM is prog-
nostics, but this is also its least mature element. Prognostics attempts to
estimate remaining component life, given that an abnormal condition
has been detected. The key to useful prognostics is not only an accu-
rate estimate of remaining life but also an assessment of the estimates
confidence [152]; uncertainty poses challenges to the prediction, as it
must account for differences in measurements, state estimation, model
inaccuracies and future load uncertainty. To this end, fuzzy theory is
usually employed to better represent uncertainties in prediction [42].
The Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction of assets is a key con-
cept in reducing the maintenance and life-cycle management cost and
increasing their availability. It can be accomplished by different strate-
gies, e.g. by applying a multivariate pattern matching process from the
data to the remaining life, by first estimating damage and then extrap-
olating its progression over time until it intersects the failure criterion.
The future degradation state is predicted based on the model and the
identified features [44], including the uncertainties inherent to predic-
tions made in future monitoring system states. As we get further in
time from the current state, the uncertainty increases and, consequently,
the prediction accuracy decreases. In many cases, the RUL prediction is
achieved by health indicators that best represent the health condition
of the asset by mainly analyzing process and operational parameters,
as in [45,46,52]. However, some other works are focused on the use of
registered failure times [47]. In [51] a novel strategy for predicting the
RUL on a real-time basis is proposed by simultaneously considering eco-
nomic and stochastic dependences and a dynamic condition monitoring
strategy for multi-component systems.
In predictive maintenance, time series analysis using condition mon-
itoring data is crucial to anticipate anomalies and malfunctions in in-
dustrial assets and processes. Temporal anomaly prediction approaches
usually learn models that best fit time series to compute errors when
comparing new, incoming data to predicted values. Traditional strate-
gies use statistical measures, such as moving average over a time win-
dow, ARIMA, Kalman filter and cumulative sum [153]. Regression mod-
els fitted to non-stationary data can better represent more complex,
nonlinear dependencies with other related features. Gaussian process
regression [154] and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) networks for regres-
sion [155] are two very popular examples of prognostic models. In [49],
a neural network-based approach is proposed to efficiently predict the
RUL by taking as inputs the last observations coming from condition
monitoring data, e.g. the time instants and their related health condi-
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Information Fusion 50 (2019) 92–111
tion. Zhou et al. [53] present a time window based preventive mainte-
nance model for multi-component systems with stochastic failures and
the disassembly sequence included.
Much like MLP networks, deep learning methods can be seen as a
cascade of many layers of processing units that combine the predictor
features to approximate the target feature [121]. In [48], the authors
use health indicators fusing statistical features. A RNN-based health in-
dicator is proposed to overcome drawbacks related to the computation
of bearing health indicators, e.g. considering different ranges and fail-
ure thresholds of the statistical indicators used and failure times, respec-
tively. RNNs present some interesting properties for time series forecast-
ing; their loops allow information to persist [156]. They are powerful
and increasingly popular models for learning from varying-length se-
quence data, particularly those using LSTM hidden units [157]. LSTM
networks for anomaly/fault detection in time series have demonstrated
very good accuracy [48,158]. Some recent research has dealt with LSTM
networks for anomaly detection in time series [159,160]. However, this
has not yet been combined with an understandable physical modeling of
condition monitoring data for prognostics to anticipate anomalous data
sequences over time.
Data fusion techniques ranges from multi-sensor signal combinations
to a more complex integration of condition assessment, RUL estimation
and decision making, as proposed in [50] by using a multivariate FPCA
and in [43] by integrating expert knowledge. The novel Digital Twin
concept is also grasping great attention in the scientific community, fus-
ing information from sensors, physics and data-driven models [54]. Un-
fortunately, there is often no record or clear evidence of maintenance
operations, faults or malfunctions which can be used to select subsets of
labeled data [161].
2.3. Prescriptive prognosis
The emerging technology of prescriptive analytics goes beyond de-
scriptive and predictive models by recommending one or more courses
of action – and showing the likely outcome of each decision. Despite
the undoubted relevance of prescribing actions to gain a competitive
advantage or an increased business value from the captured industrial
data, research on prescriptive prognosis has been paid less attention by
the community working on Industry 4.0 than its predictive and descrip-
tive counterparts. Understood as the recommendation of one or more
courses of action based on the outcomes of models for descriptive and
predictive prognosis, prescriptive prognostic methods have undergone
the direct implications of the relative lack of maturity of the digitaliza-
tion in the industrial sector, reflected in an inherent difficulty to build
practical prescriptive models [162]. Furthermore, most decision making
processes are strongly linked to the particularities of the use case itself,
yielding very unlikely chances to replicate the scarcity of prescriptive
models reported so far over different industrial scenarios. Research ac-
tivity has thus been bounded to ad-hoc model developments for specific
setups, awaiting the digital maturity of previous prognosis methods in
the processing chain that stimulate new advances in regards to the mod-
els themselves [163] (Table 3).
Notwithstanding the stagnant shortage of prescriptive prognosis
models noted above, an analysis of recent research effort around general
prescriptive analytics in industrial data must be made so as to evince,
in hindsight, the importance of addressing this niche of research in the
short term. Therefore, this section is devoted to this analysis, capital-
izing on those examples where prognosis models and data fusion have
been utilized jointly with optimization solvers, rule inference systems,
fuzzy reasoning and other prescriptive algorithms alike. While this hy-
bridization of models could be a priori straightforward to implement in
theory, in practice the conversion from predictive/descriptive outcomes
to actionable information goes beyond the mere connection of such out-
comes in the criteria driving the optimality of the evaluated recommen-
dations and actions. Many practical considerations often jeopardize the
adoption of naive schemes to blend together models for descriptive, pre-

Table 3
Comparison of representative works on prescriptive prognostics.
Ref. Method Data used
CPLEX (no further details given) Predicted aircraft health metrics, amount
[58] of maintenance workload and cost,
prediction uncertainties
Evolutionary optimization Maintenance schedule, energy
[60] consumption of production machinery,
production commit
Ant Colony Optimization Makespan, processing times of
[67] manufacturing and maintenance
operations, availability period of
machines
Bi-objective Ant Colony Optimization Job processing times, failure and repair
[68] rate of machines
Multi-objective evolutionary algorithms Production preschedule, processing time
[71] of manufacturing operations, MTTR
and MTBF of the machinery
Multi-objective evolutionary algorithm Flexibility of maintenance operations,
[72] health index of machinery produced by
prognosis modeling, job processing
times, machine deterioration model
Multi-objective evolutionary algorithm MTTR and MTBF of machinery,
[73] production commit, job processing
times
Weighted-sum single-objective Genetic Groups of production lots, machine
101
[75] Algorithm degradation model, cost model, job
processing times
Multi-objective evolutionary algorithm Reliability model
[76] calibrated by neural networks
Multi-objective evolutionary algorithm Marginal profit of every product lot,
[77] robustness model, maximum demand
per product, production capacity of
every line
Ant Colony Optimization, Genetic Job arrival, due and processing times,
[79] Algorithm, Tabu Search, hybrid minimum and maximum gaps between
methods maintenance operations, processing
time of a maintenance operation
Fuzzy logic Output of vibration and temperature
[82] monitoring systems deployed on the
machinery
Multi-criteria Fuzzy Decision Making Past information about failure cases,
[83] portfolio of applicable maintenance
policies
GAMS/CPLEX (no further details given) Maximum RUL, batch capacity, operation
[85] modes of the processing unit, cost
models, production targets per material
Monte Carlo sampling with surrogate Job processing times, machinery failure
[86] measures model (time between failures)
Fuzzy Petri Nets and multi-objective Design factors and cost models for every
[97] Particle Swarm Optimization subsystem of the product to be
manufactured
Industrial sector
Aerospace
Semiconductor
manufacturing
Manufacturing (generic)
Manufacturing (generic)
Manufacturing (generic)
Manufacturing (generic)
Manufacturing (generic)
Manufacturing (generic)
Manufacturing (generic)
Manufacturing of cleaning
products
Manufacturing (generic)
Textile manufacturing
Rolling element bearings of
paper mills
Chemical process in steel
making industry
Manufacturing (generic)
CNC machinery
Assets involved
Aircraft, yearly maintenance workforce
Machinery on-off duty cycle, production
scheduling
Production and maintenance scheduling
(assign each operation to an
appropriate machine, and sequence
operations over time)
Schedule of multiple maintenance
services, assignment of jobs to machines
Production schedule (job to machine
assignment, time sequencing)
Maintenance plan, production schedule
(job to machine assignment, time
sequencing)
Maintenance schedule (time and system
on which maintenance is made),
production schedule (job to machine
assignment, time sequencing)
Production scheduling and maintenance
planning
Maintenance schedule, job sequence
Production plan
Joint executing sequence of production
and maintenance tasks on machines
Predictive maintenance schedule of the
textile machines
Best suited maintenance approach
Multiscale production and maintenance
scheduling plans
Joint production and schedule plans
Relative importances given to reliability
and cost for the design of every
subsystem
A. Diez-Olivan et al.
Main goal
Optimally schedule maintenance
operations of an aircraft fleet given
flying plan and aircraft demands
Minimization of the energy consumption
given a production commit and
maintenance schedule
Flexible job shop scheduling with
machine unavailability constraints due
to preventive maintenance
Minimization of the system unavailability
and minimization of the production
makespan
Minimization of the production makespan
versus maximization of stability under
random machine breakdowns
Minimization of maximum completion
time versus minimization of
maintenance costs
Minimization of completion time versus
minimization of average machinery
unavailability versus minimization of
average mould unavailability
Minimization of total completion time
and maintenance costs given delivery
date and cost constraints
Makespan minimization versus system
unavailability minimization
Profitability versus robustness of the plan
against failures over the production
lines
Minimization of manufacturing total time
(makespan) and its robustness with
respect to ideal maintenance periods
Perform maintenance activities prior to
the machinery failure
Cost-effective maintenance given the
current machine condition, product
quality and other factors
Cost-effective joint production and
Information Fusion 50 (2019) 92–111
maintenance scheduling considering
residual useful life and operation modes
of the plant
Minimization of expected production
makespan versus minimization of
deviation between actual and initially
planned schedules
Cost-effective, max-reliability design of
produced assets
A. Diez-Olivan et al.
dictive and prescriptive analysis, ranging from ethical implications of
the produced rules and actions to the economic feasibility of the pre-
scribed rules [164]. Furthermore, interplays also appear back and forth
between such models: as to mention, certain actions dictated by a pre-
scriptive model can change the working regime of a given machinery,
thus impacting on the stationarity of the data captured from the equip-
ment and eventually demanding a retraining phase of the predictive
prognosis models. Therefore, models must be elaborated much further,
carefully inspecting how the prescribed decisions propagate along the
data processing chain.
The overview provided in what follows discriminates recent contri-
butions in the broad topic of prescriptive methods for industry by the ap-
plication for which the model was developed. A focus will be also placed
on the techniques and data utilized, highlighting those cases where de-
scriptive and predictive models were employed. In those cases where
such an hybridization is missing, possibilities in the form of research
hypothesis will be postulated briefly in order to encourage future re-
search efforts.
2.3.1. Production scheduling
To begin with, production scheduling emerges as the most intuitive
actionable axis on which prescriptive models have been used in the In-
dustry 4.0 [165,166]. In this context scheduling refers to all decision
support system aimed at efficiently managing the assets, tools and re-
sources needed in production to increase its optimality, gauged in terms
of one or many criteria. This wide optimization can be pursued at very
different levels of the production chain, either inside the manufactur-
ing plant (stock, raw material, human resources, machinery, produc-
tion line, intermediate buffers, in-plant logistics, intra-departmental ex-
change) or between different factories performing distinct albeit related
production phases [167]. Not only resources and assets may vary among
scheduling problems, but also the measure of fitness under which pre-
scriptions are evaluated: to mention a few, maximum productivity, min-
imum make span, maximum energy efficiency and minimum scrap rate
appear as the most frequently considered criteria in recent works grav-
itating on this topic. The complexity of scheduling problems is usually
exacerbated by the establishment of operational constraints to reflect
practical limitations that can be anticipated beforehand, often by virtue
of non-obvious expert knowledge not necessarily reflected nor inferable
from the retrieved data.
Within the huge research activity on production scheduling observed
in the last years, a fraction of contributions have considered criteria re-
lated to maintenance planning for faulty systems and processes, which
can be conceived as a variant of production scheduling with particular
optimization metrics and constraints [55]. In this context, the outcomes
of previous predictive models can be fed to the prescription of schedul-
ing actions in manifold ways. When energy efficiency comes into play,
the use of regression models is mandatory in order to generalize and esti-
mate the power consumption of the monitored machine under different
working regimes, whose control parameters are optimized to yield the
lowest consumption level at a given production rate [56,57]. In this ex-
emplifying case prognosis does not take an explicit role in the prescrip-
tion of actions, but benefits indirectly from a lower power consumption
of the machinery, which potentially reduces its chances to enter an oper-
ational failure. Fortunately, more explicit examples of how prognosis be-
come an inner part of production scheduling problems abound in the lit-
erature: many contributions dealing with job shop scheduling problems
include in their problem statement the possibility for a machine to be
broken down or in maintenance state, which can be indeed anticipated
by predictive prognostic models [58–60]. This predicted unavailability
of machines within a plant can be exploited in the optimization process
to reduce, for instance, the transfer time of production tasks between
machines. Preprogrammed maintenance and/or engineering tasks are
also included within the pool of production tasks and tackled in the
overall scheduling optimization, often resorting to heuristics of very di-
verse nature. When maintenance resources are below the required level,
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Information Fusion 50 (2019) 92–111
they can also become part of the optimization goal, prescribing which
personnel should be allocated to which maintenance tasks to reduce the
impact of predicted failures on the production of the industrial plant,
mostly in terms of the time for which it is interrupted.
From the algorithmic perspective, most contributions so far have re-
volved on the use of different heuristic solvers to optimally allocate pro-
duction resources. Among them, bio-inspired optimization techniques
have grasped a good deal of attention, either those inspired by evolu-
tionary concepts [61–63] or emulating other behavioral patterns and
phenomena observed in Nature [64–66]. Elements from Swarm Intelli-
gence, encompassing multi-agent schemes, have also emerged as compu-
tationally efficient means to address complex task scheduling problems
fed with predictive maintenance needs [67–70]. Another research trend
is noted around approaching the production scheduling problem as a
problem comprising multiple conflicting optimization criteria, which
calls for the adoption of solvers capable of inferring a set of feasible
Pareto-optimal task schedules [71–76]. The ever-growing dynamism of
the industrial production environment has also spurred the exploration
of flexible on-line optimization approaches capable of reworking sched-
ules incrementally (also known as rescheduling) to accommodate the
contextual variability of the plant in different aspects, including power
outages and unpredictable failures [77,78]. Uncertainty in the predic-
tive estimation of the maintenance needs of physical assets and the time
required for repair has been also managed at the algorithmic level using
robust optimization algorithms [79,80]. In those works where heteroge-
neous information is collected from the plant and exploited for produc-
tion scheduling and maintenance planning, data fusion has been kept
relative apart from the optimization process, consolidating all opera-
tional parameters and signals of relevance for the scheduling problem
at hand in the formulation of the fitness functions themselves, or dele-
gating this fusion to models deployed in previous processing stages (i.e.
inside the middleware/Big Data platform, or embedded in models for
predictive prognosis).
Besides the heuristic approach to maintenance and production
scheduling, concepts related to fuzzy logic have taken also a paramount
role in production scheduling with predictive maintenance and other
sources of uncertainty [81–84]. By mining the expert knowledge of plant
operators using fuzzy logic, it is possible to plan predictive maintenance
activities over industrial machinery by optimally converting the mon-
itored parameters to a fuzzy domain where expert rules are defined.
Other contributions in maintenance-aware scheduling include models
to emulate the response of the plant operation under such as State Task
Networks [85] or surrogate models [86] to avoid time-consuming per-
formance estimations of the production chain under different schedules.
2.3.2. Life cycle optimization
Another research branch in which prognostic information has been
exploited is the optimization of the life cycle of industrial products and
assets. This area spans beyond the inherent use of predictive mainte-
nance estimations for extending the productivity of industrial machin-
ery, which can be certainly thought of as the extension of its life cycle.
When inferred from other tools and the final products themselves, pre-
dictive information on the performance, quality and in-service operation
can help managing optimally the life cycle of products and industrial
tools, to the extent of prescribing and imprinting core changes from
the conception and design of the product to its delivery, service, dis-
posal/disassembling and recycling. This holistic management of the life
cycle must several criteria must be assessed jointly with those related
to productivity and operation estimated by prognostic models: quality,
economics, flexibility and sustainability, among others [168].
In all cases, simulation tools and prediction models play a crucial role
in the determination of how the prescription of different actions affect
the life cycle of products and processes. The sharply rising momentum
of these technologies all over the product cycle has given rise to popular
terms handled nowadays in the Industry 4.0 realm, such as Digital Twins
[169], Virtual Factories [170] or Soft Sensing [171]. Notably, the char-
A. Diez-Olivan et al.
acterization of processes and systems of the industrial plant based on the
captured data is at the core of the technological portfolio underneath all
such paradigms. Specific samples of the application of prediction mod-
els to life cycle assessment include, to mention a few, the use of ANNs
and linear regression models for the estimation of the RUL of renewed
products incorporating used parts [87] and the environmental impact
of different product compositions and designs [88], or the utilization of
machine learning models to tailor the composition of raw materials in
manufacturing environments to match a set of desired properties (e.g.
hardness, fatigue, deflection, etc.) or a target measure of performance
[89–91]. A fresh view on inclusive life cycle assessment is provided in
[92], where production and customer service data are analyzed using
Random Forest models and ANNs to discover and understand causal re-
lationships of failure patterns in industrial products. The unprecedented
scales at which products undergo life cycle assessment and optimization
have lately steered the attention of the community towards the adop-
tion of Big Data frameworks. This rapprochement is not only to ingest,
manage and store multi-sensory, heterogeneous data sources related to
the entire manufacturing life cycle and the status of the production as-
sets, but also enables more enriched, informed prescriptive decisions in
regards to energy efficiency, productivity, marketing and fault diagno-
sis [93]. As a result of the provision of more computing capabilities,
the literature is lately witnessing the timid incursion of deep (reinforce-
ment) learning models for life cycle assessment in industrial systems,
particularly for process control [94] and RUL estimation [95].
At this point it is noteworthy to highlight the concept of prescriptive
information fusion recently coined in [96]. This contribution postulates
and proves that prescriptive analytics in manufacturing should benefit
from the surplus of data provided by simulation models. Recommenda-
tions and strategies should be driven by an augmented dataset, fusing
together real-world industrial data and the outcomes produced by sim-
ulation models within a closed-loop iterative framework. As a result the
decision making process can explore regions of a design space that are
not necessarily covered by the captured real-world data or cannot be
reliably generalized by predictive models. Not in vain is the materials-
aware design of product manufacturing processes (in essence, an in-
stance of life cycle optimization) exposed as one of the empirical evi-
dences that shed light on the benefits and generality of the proposed
information fusion methodology.
The prescribed rules and actions for improving the product life cy-
cle can operate on variables and parameters of very diverse nature. The
early design of the product can be optimized to minimize the criticality
of eventual failures along the production chain, as done in [97] using
a mixture of multi-criteria optimization heuristics and fuzzy Petri nets,
and in [98,99] resorting to Bayesian decision networks for reasoning
and mapping design decisions over products and processes subject to
uncertainty. However, in the beginning of the life cycle machine learn-
ing models can also be extensively utilized for other industrial purposes,
from the determination of demanded product specifications based on
information retrieved from the client portfolio or the marketing/sales
warehouse, to the optimization of the product details and specifications
balancing a trade-off between miscellaneous objectives (e.g. costs, per-
formance, reliability, safety and environmental impact, among others)
[100]. Tolerances, materials, assembling procedures, item dimensions
and other factors alike are among those most frequently considered.
Simulation tools are often hybridized with machine learning and opti-
mization techniques to find optimal values for such factors. In the mid-
dle life cycle (production), predicted faults in the machinery can be an-
alyzed and may serve as the managerial trigger to decide changes in
the design of the product or in several stages of the production process.
This can be regarded as an extension of the regular quality inspection of
products while they are manufactured, wherein not the product itself is
inspected, but rather the causal consequences of a bad design or an un-
expected lack of compliance with the production process is inferred by
virtue of predictive prognosis. When detected, the reason for failure un-
chains new design constraints that are fed back for subsequent product
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redesign. Finally, prescriptive analytics have also been at the forefront
of optimized disassembling strategies, waste management policies and
product recycling procedures optimized in the final stages of the life cy-
cle [101,102]. However, findings in this latter stage have not considered
prognostic information except for those related to the prediction of the
remaining lifetime of reused part for remanufacturing plants [103].
2.3.3. Supply chain management and logistics
The inherent benefits of fault diagnosis have also fed into other
stages of the industrial cycle, related to yet not necessarily embedded
into the production process [172]. For instance, the propagation of ef-
fects of a given machinery fault (e.g. an interruption between tasks or
delays in the production chain) has not only been analyzed in regards to
the net productivity of the plant, but also in what refers to the supply,
management and storage of raw materials [104–106]. The end-to-end
profusion of data collected in manufacturing environments, the progres-
sive adoption of data-based modeling as a core driver of industrial op-
erations and their implementation in manifold sectors have sprung and
coined the term Supply Chain Analytics (SCA), which has lately settled in
the limelight to the detriment of traditional non-data-driven approaches
[107–109]. In this matter the literature has been specially rich in the last
couple of years, with contributions related to fault prognosis observed
around several axis:
• The predictability of failures within the industrial machinery can
prescribe decisions even in the initial stages of the supply chain. For
instance, the selection of the supplier can be driven by an estima-
tion of possible deviations of the delivered raw material from their
expected performance, or by the effect of a change in the proper-
ties of the supplied goods in the quality of the product itself. It is
interesting to highlight that a close connection between predictive
and prescriptive prognosis could help manufacturers in their criteria
used to evaluate and select suppliers. The prescription of decisions
at this early stage can be profound enough to imprint changes in the
design of the supply chain network so as to accommodate demand
uncertainties, unreliable supply schedules (due to e.g. the scarcity of
raw material, difficulties in the transportation, supply volatility or
economical circumstances) or disruptions in the production chain,
as those that could be due to machinery faults.
• Inventory management can be also steered by information on the
faults occurred within the production process. This is particularly
crucial in multi-echelon inventory optimization processes, where the
variability of the demand and storage at a certain inventory level can
propagate downstream over other related inbound/outbound stock
buffers, desynchronizing decisions over the whole inventory hierar-
chy (from the emission of replenishment orders to the adjustment of
intra-echelon lead times).
• Finally, logistics can also become affected eventual production dis-
ruptions in the plant due to maintenance tasks. A lower productivity
of the plant should be contemplated in the management and opti-
mization of delivery logistics. Therefore, it is essential to connect
the output of prognostic models for failure prediction and predictive
maintenance to problems modeling logistics operations so as to op-
timize the management and planning of vehicles, crew and ancillary
aspects related to the delivery and shipment of products to demand-
ing users and companies. This broad family of optimization problems
consider, among others, multiple vehicles with varying capacities,
delivery and pickup time windows, the placement of intermediate
depots or the cost margin of the transportation.
3. Implications on industrial hardware, software and
communications
The spectrum of technologies underlying IoT and cyber-physical sys-
tems enable the digitalization of several key stakeholders in the Indus-
try 4.0 ecosystem: the factory, the process, the asset, the product, the
A. Diez-Olivan et al.
operator and the optimal management and information valuation of
the product. This digital transformation allows gathering unprecedented
amounts of data over the plant, automating processes, connecting and
implementing digital interfaces with customers, to the point of imprint-
ing essential changes to traditional industrial business models.
For this transformation process to succeed it is of utmost importance
that the data life cycle in its entirety (from sensing to data fusion and
prognostic modeling) is supported efficiently by hardware and software
platforms specially suited for this purpose. In this context, physical hard-
ware systems must first ensure that data requirements imposed by the
prognostic problem and subsequent modeling are fulfilled efficiently,
wherein efficiency obeys different albeit related criteria (e.g. econom-
ical costs, energy efficiency, cross-compatibility, scalability). As such,
approaches such as hardware virtualization, smart sensors and micro-
electro-mechanical systems (MEMS) [173] have been proven to profi-
ciently deal with connectivity and computational issues stemming from
industrial scenarios so as to allow the entire IoT stack to be distributed
differently over different parts of the communications architecture, giv-
ing rise to what is nowadays referred to as Cloud/Edge computing. Sim-
ilarly, implemented data-based models must be deployed on software
platforms capable of accommodating the volumes and speed at which
industrial data are generated, with Big Data technologies at the forefront
of the latest reported use cases of industrial prognosis.
For a proper selection of these supporting technologies several as-
pects must be taken into consideration, part of which have relevance
and a strong connection to data fusion and modeling approaches. These
specific aspects are discussed in what follows.
3.1. Edge Computing versus Cloud Computing
Edge Computing allows data produced by IoT devices to be processed
locally, closer to where it is acquired instead of sending it to data centers
or Clouds [174,175]. It helps filtering and reducing (fusing) the amount
of data that needs to be sent to the cloud, and takes advantage of multi-
cloud and distributed computing strategies. Local processing is far more
cost-effective, requiring less ongoing bandwidth and storage cost, and
reduces latency and the amount of information traversing the network,
since there is no need of instantaneously sending the data streams to
the cloud to be fused and processed by the machine learning models.
Beyond the convenience of Edge Computing in terms of communica-
tion resources, this computation paradigm has important implications
not only on the selection of the hardware platform for the use case at
hand, but also in the modeling stage. Data fusion and analysis are imple-
mented locally, so radically new model design strategies must be devised
and developed so as to distribute, share and incrementally learn from
the prognostic knowledge gained from locally captured data. This noted
need lies at the heart of several research trends in data science:
• Federated Learning, which addresses how to decentralize the learn-
ing process of a data-based model over a large number of client mod-
els, each observing a partial fraction of the data acquired locally from
its local context [176]. By allowing such clients to communicate to
each other, the knowledge learned locally by each client model can
be shared with every other counterpart, and exploited therein so
as to enrich its locally gained knowledge. This distributed comput-
ing paradigm unveils interesting aspects to consider in a practical
industrial scenario, ranging from those related purely to communi-
cation aspects (latency, scheduling of knowledge exchanges, band-
width requirements to encode and exchange the knowledge learned
by a model – e.g. layer weights of a neural network) to the implica-
tions in terms of data modeling (incremental model update, training
latency in real-time prognosis, knowledge representation for feder-
ating heterogeneous data-based models). All in all, advances in Fed-
erated Learning should be embraced by industrial scenarios opting
for Edge Computing to alleviate the computational costs that a cen-
tralized prognosis modeling process would imply.
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• Transfer Learning and Domain Adaptation, which aim at the deriva-
tion of new data-based methods for extrapolating knowledge gained
for solving a (predictive) task for solving a different yet related task
in another context [177], thereby enabling edge devices to learn
from each other even if their targeted problem is not the same [178].
Although this paradigm was first addressed in isolation with respect
to Federated Learning, it is clear that both trends are closely inter-
connected: Transfer Learning can be a technical path to follow when
the learning algorithm behind the federated prognostic models is not
unique and/or the local data from which they learn are not produced
by the same industrial asset, nor do they correspond to the same
monitored physical parameter. In this practical situation the trans-
fer of predictive knowledge between different prognosis contexts
can yield significant performance gains, particularly when the cap-
tured data undergoes class imbalance, weak supervision and other
data-based shortfalls that jeopardize the learning process of the local
model.
• Online Learning, which relates to the extraction of predictive knowl-
edge from data streams characterized by stringent processing re-
quirements, and possibly subject to exogenous non-stationary effects
in the data patterns to be learned. Online Learning assumes that
data instances are produced at fast rates, and fed in a sequential
order and only once for incrementally updating the model. These
assumptions clash with those of traditional batch learning, where
the entire training dataset is available at once for the training algo-
rithm [179]. In this regard, the choice and design of the hardware
platform and the communication protocols play a crucial role in de-
termining the precise timing requirements of an incremental update
of the local models in the edge: parameters such as the data rate at
which sensors operate, the scheduling period by which knowledge
is exchanged within a federation of models or the latency incurred
by the communication protocol, and the processing capability of the
sensor itself can be decisive in the design of a practical incremental
prognosis model over streaming data.
In light of the above it is straightforward to conclude that a proper se-
lection of smart sensing IoT devices and communication protocols is im-
perative when dealing with an industrial prognosis problem, with design
implications that span up to the data-based modeling stage. Interest-
ingly, most recent smart IoT sensors are able to locally extract features
from raw data and to even deploy simple models to produce estimations,
providing data-level fusion, feature-level fusion and decision-level fu-
sion capabilities [13]. This also opens interesting opportunities to study
the trade-off between the precision of the model and the transmission
bandwidth. To that latter concern, the use of certain sensor materials
(i.e. metal composites and nanocomposites or piezoelectric polymers
and transducers), propagation means (namely, radio frequency or acous-
tic waves) and communication protocols and standards (correspond-
ingly, Industrial Ethernet, HART, Fieldbus, PROFINET or PROFIBUS)
are of special interest when implementing centralized (Cloud) progno-
sis architectures in industrial environments, due to their complexity and
significance in terms of bandwidth and quality of information trans-
mission. An hybrid solution to balance computation and communica-
tion and to meet task-specific requirements when dealing with seamless
connectivity of billions of smart devices is the so-called Fog Computing
[180,181], which can be conceived as an extension of Cloud Computing
services towards the edge of the network without implementing all data
processing functionalities in distributed IoT edge nodes, but instead on
intermediate processing gateways.
3.2. Traditional databases versus Big Data technologies
According to the increasing amount of distributed information
sources available in industrial environments, data-intensive technolo-
gies are becoming increasingly prevalent to ingest, store, manage and
process massive data [182]. Under such circumstances, the real-time re-
A. Diez-Olivan et al.
sponse needed in many industrial scenarios imposes that data processing
and analysis is performed in an online manner over Stream Processing
Engines (SPE). Different generations of SPEs have been developed dur-
ing last years, from extensions to traditional Data Base Management Sys-
tems (DBMS) to highly distributed, edge and cloud computing solutions
[183].
DBMS provides data storage capabilities for performing relational
operations of data structures and batch analysis, whereas Data Stream
Management Systems (DSMS) and edge technologies are mainly focused
on fast data management and quick processing tasks. Similarly, Com-
plex Event Processing (CEP) systems support the analysis of series of
events and thus detecting, for instance, time relationships among them
by means of correlation rules. Another useful application of CEP sys-
tems in distributed IoT architectures and networks of edge devices is
the smart fusion of sensor data [184,185].
From those solutions that are mainly intended to address prognosis-
related problems, it is worth mentioning ESPER (Event Series Intelli-
gence [186]), a CEP-based solution designed to analyze series of events
and implemented on the basis of an event-driven architecture, and In-
fluxDB [187], which is an-open source time series DBMS that is able
to handle and perform real-time analytics over large amounts of times-
tamped data, including IoT sensor data.
4. Future trends and perspectives
In light of the literature survey reviewed in previous sections, there
is no doubt posed on the research momentum around data fusion and
analysis for industrial prognosis. Indeed, almost every proposal for new
architectural solutions related to Industry 4.0 conceives prognosis as a
core part of utmost relevance for the smart operation of the industrial
asset under focus. The use of data fusion techniques and machine learn-
ing algorithms to exploit all the available information allows incorpo-
rating intelligence into improved, cloud-based hands-on machines and
production lines, through software integration and deployment. Com-
plex behaviors and prognostic models can be learned from historical
data, tons of data can be analyzed in real time and industrial assets and
production processes can be intelligently monitored in an on-line fash-
ion. Cloud-powered data processing and Big Data management are also
key technological ingredients in this regard.
However, the community still faces a number of research niches
and challenges demanding further investigation and development in the
near future. We next describe such challenges in detail by providing
argued rationale and by sketching potential research paths to follow,
aimed at stimulating the interest and steering the efforts of early re-
searchers and newcomers to this exciting research field. For the sake of
clarity the identified challenges will be arranged in increasing order of
their level of abstraction, from those related to the models themselves
to the ones that connect closely with their practicality in real industrial
environments.
4.1. Descriptive prognosis: Visual analytics for an enhanced
understandability
One of the most recurrently encountered handicaps for the
widespread adoption of data-based prognosis is the assimilation of in-
formation by the operator of the industrial plant. When it comes to de-
scriptive prognosis, it is often the case that the produced information
by the deployed models cannot be processed straightforward by non-
specialized personnel unless some sort of preprocessing is devised for
an improved, more intuitive understanding of the captured patterns.
This is particularly relevant in legacy industrial facilities through their
first transition steps towards a digital mode of operation, production and
management. In this stage descriptive modeling should incur simplistic
approaches targeted at a twofold objective: 1) to crosscheck that the cap-
tured data is in accordance to the knowledge and historical experience
by the personnel of the plant during their working years in the plant;
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and 2) to provide different levels of abstraction and complexity in the
representation of data, optimally matched to the technical competences
and needs of the managing staff of the industrial company. Once the
industrial staff verifies that the prognostic information provided by ba-
sic descriptive models matches their intuition, a path is cleared towards
embracing more advanced algorithms and methods for describing the
normal operation of the industrial setup under analysis. To this end,
data fusion techniques, when needed, must be designed with extreme
care not to oversee the expertise of the personnel in regards to the num-
ber and temporal resolution of the monitored signals. Visual analytics,
understood as the study and development of new ways of data represen-
tation fostering interpretability and understandability of the displayed
information flows [188], has recently emerged as a promising discipline
to visually adapt the discovered insights and optimally present results
to different human profiles [189,190]. These aspects will be crucial in
real use cases where to deploy models for descriptive prognostic with a
minimum guarantee of usability and practical utility, along with other
technological approaches aimed at this same purpose (e.g. human ma-
chine interfaces).
4.2. Predictive prognosis: Class imbalance, non-stationarity and transfer
learning
When industrial prognosis is formulated as a classification or regres-
sion problem, the relatively low incidence of faults in the industrial
machine or asset being monitored is a circumstance that hinders the
proper construction of a predictive model to undertake the classifica-
tion task. When training a model with few or no evidences of the events
of interest (e.g. operational faults or changing operational conditions),
it is likely that the model becomes biased towards the so-called major-
ity class. In other words, the learning algorithm focuses on predicting
the most frequent class (namely, normal operation) with high accuracy,
while misclassifying or simply ignoring the least frequent class (corre-
spondingly, faulty operation) which, in turn, is the one whose detection
provides most practical value for the industry. This is actually a very
recurrent problem in predictive prognosis, particularly when casted as
a binary classification problem [191]. Workarounds abound in the form
of preprocessing methods such as class under/oversampling techniques,
specialized balanced ensembles or embedded modifications of the model
learning algorithm devised to account for the class imbalance present in
the training dataset [192,193]. However, even though there have been
notable advances in class imbalance for multilabel and multiclass clas-
sification from an application-agnostic perspective [194], most real use
cases where predictive prognosis is put to practice oversimplify the un-
derlying problem to its binary version, despite the immediate profits that
could derive from the discrimination of the type of fault predicted to oc-
cur (e.g. tailored predictive maintenance or a more resilient design of
the processes and machinery involved in production). Extrapolating the
aforementioned findings to industrial prognosis would by itself provide
an increased predictive awareness of the fault patterns of the monitored
assets. This would call for interesting synergies with visual analytics so
as to help managers upon an alarm comprising different types of fault.
Another research area in data fusion and analysis emerging in in-
dustrial prognosis is Online Learning over data streams. Following the
outline around this paradigm in Section 3, Online Learning implies deep
changes not only in what refers to the learning algorithm (e.g. incre-
mental model update), but also in regards to the obsolescence of the
knowledge retained by the model under phenomena that is not neces-
sarily symptomatic of the failure to be predicted (e.g. a change of work-
ing regime of the machinery, lack of calibration, sensing drift and other
factors alike). In such a case, the adoption of elements from concept
drift detection and adaptation [195] for the industrial setting has lately
come into scientific debate, as they can be efficient means for prog-
nosis over time-evolving data streams [196]. Indeed, subtle changes in
the distribution of the data streams under faulty and faultless opera-
tion can make the predictive knowledge captured in the model become
A. Diez-Olivan et al.
catastrophically obsolete at a point in time, eventually triggering main-
tenance alarms when there is no such a need in practice. The detection
and consequent adaptation of the learning algorithm (either actively or
passively) to this drift could eventually minimize its impact and main-
tain the detection performance of the prognostic solution within admis-
sible levels of practicality. In this context, industrial applications requir-
ing prognosis over data streams should particularly inspect the latest
advances for recurrent concept drifts [197,198], since phenomena for
drifting data streams usually occur repeatedly in industrial setups (e.g.
recalibration or the change of operator in the machine). Online predic-
tive models capable of learning from data streams subject to uncertainty
should also be at the core of future research in industrial prognosis, due
to the high level of uncertainty and noise characterizing certain sources
of data [199].
Finally, as stated in Section 3 Transfer Learning and Domain Adap-
tation are also trends in Data Science deserving further attention for
industrial prognosis, since this portfolio of techniques can be an effec-
tive workaround for the scarcity of labeled prognosis data in industrial
setups. In manufacturing industries with presence in different coun-
tries the deployed machinery features a high level of similarity between
plants, with different designs due to the provider or varying contexts in
diverse aspects such as maintenance policies, personnel skills or quality
of the processed raw material. Transfer Learning could make a predic-
tive prognosis model developed for a certain industrial plant be reused
in part as a starting point for predicting failures in another plant, even
if differences exist between the context in which such plants operate.
4.3. Prescriptive prognosis: Complex constraints and realistic objectives
When turning the focus to prescriptive prognosis, the most chal-
lenging paradigm encountered in practice remains tightly coupled to
the match between the formulated optimization problem and the de-
cision making process that such a problem aims to model. Industries,
particularly those related to the manufacturing of goods, are complex
environments where human and machinery coexist and interact, often
without a holistically centralized management. In this context it is of-
ten the case that actions triggered by a prescriptive prognosis model
do not conform to the practical criteria and/or constraints under which
such actions would be manually enforced. In this case, the developed
prescriptive models would fail to apply when deployed over the indus-
trial plant, thus being left aside from managerial processes. Therefore,
new working methodologies are needed to ensure that the prescriptive
research hypothesis is aligned with the real requirements of the indus-
try process at hand. Besides, such methodologies should also account
for other practical aspects that could eventually affect the design of ef-
ficient solvers for their resolution, including the variability of metrics
and/or constraints along time, cost implications of decisions made by
the model or the presence of conflicting objectives in the criteria guid-
ing such decisions (such as productivity and reliability when prescribing
maintenance operations in a job shop scheduling problem).
4.4. Integration of expert knowledge and physics in hybrid prognostic
models
In terms of data fusion, there has been little discussion on efficient
procedures for representing and integrating expert knowledge towards
its consideration in subsequent modeling phases. Beyond techniques for
fusing the information captured at different scales and temporal reso-
lutions from the industrial machinery and warehouse platforms, there
is common belief that the aggregated knowledge collected over years
of experience of the personnel is a valuable informational asset and
a key factor for success in prognosis modeling [200]. When the com-
puted health or status indicator from data is representative enough to
address the problem under study, the modeling stage becomes rather
straightforward. More precisely, if expert knowledge of the problem to
be solved and involved assets is available in advance, it is advisable to
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stress on the fusion of data and the definition of the KPIs to be mea-
sured. If expert knowledge is limited or not easily representable as a
continuous or discrete variable, the emphasis must be instead placed on
the modeling phase, attempting to address the analytical task in a more
exhaustive manner. This can be seen as a trade-off between model com-
plexity and a priori knowledge. Based on this principle, the attention of
the research community should be directed towards the development of
hybrid models capable of seamlessly fusing incorporating the expertise
fed back from the industry personnel within its learning algorithm. For
this purpose models suited to deal with multidimensional time-domain
data instances should lay at the core of this research niche, such as re-
cently reported recurrent models for sequence prediction with uncer-
tainty [201] and distance based classification for time series [202].
An open challenge related to the above remains when blending to-
gether Data Science and principles stemming from Mechanics, Thermo-
dynamics and other physical principles linked to the failure of specific
industrial processes, particularly those related to the manufacture of ma-
terials (e.g. metallurgy, polymers and plastics). The hybridization of the-
oretical concepts with learned evidences from historical data has shown
itself to be highly profitable for energy efficiency [203] or battery life
prediction [204], coining the so-called gray-box or semi-physical model-
ing concept [205]. Both complement each other and may help reducing
the impact of label scarcity, lack of data or insufficiently generalizable
theoretical approaches to the prognosis task under analysis. However,
the integration of this theoretical knowledge in prognostic models is
made in an ad-hoc fashion, being fully determined by the use case at
hand. More principled studies are needed to evince under which con-
ditions this hybridization yields significant performance gains for the
model, delving into new ways to quantify the degree of innovation pro-
vided by theoretical concepts over a given prognostic dataset.
4.5. Prognosis towards flexible, cost-effective production
The digital revolution faced by industries in recent times can be
thought of as an enabler for a better adaptability of manufacturing pro-
duction processes and industrial assets to dynamic conditions and re-
quirements demanded by their consumers. Companies can even pro-
duce different products by communicating specifications to the ma-
chine. Thus, product variations can be automatically and flexibly manu-
factured by using well-defined standards. To this end, every single part
involved in the process produces and processes data delivered by other
parts, including information related to quality, inventory and relevantly
for the current study: health monitoring. Parts are continuously inform-
ing about their own status and that of the phase of the production line
where they are installed, which requires gathering all such information
through an IoT platform and centralizing it in a cloud-based system
able to store and process large volumes of data. The intelligent prog-
nostic analysis of this collected information is crucial to ensure that
manufacturing industries operate robustly and cost-efficiently within
highly competitive markets. By ensuring optimized prognostic decisions
in terms of maintenance highly customized and reconfigurable products
can be manufactured, closely matching their specifications to customers’
needs. However, a closer look at the compatibility of maintenance deci-
sions and flexible production needs and schedules is still lacking in the
literature.
In this regard, cost effectiveness of prognostic decisions are rarely ad-
dressed in the literature, even though this criterion can determine their
practical feasibility. Instead, the optimality of decisions is rather for-
mulated as productivity, energy savings, inventory saturation and other
technological KPI. In regards to flexibility, the ability of a manufacturing
plant to dynamically produce small yet highly customized lots by virtue
of informed, data-based decisions in operations and maintenance may
clash with excessive economical investments if the prognosis modeling
problem is formulated without considering cost effectiveness among its
objectives. The inclusion of this metric into the design of prognostic
models (particularly those prescribing predictive maintenance actions)
A. Diez-Olivan et al.
is promising in light of a strand of contributions related to the effective-
ness of maintenance investments [206].
4.6. Hardware and communications: Industrial IoT networks using fog
computing
The IoT revolution within Industry extends computing and network
capabilities and minimizes the need for human interaction within indus-
trial processes and operations. However, implementing IoT solutions is
a huge transformation process, involving not only technology and prod-
ucts, but also the change of mindsets.
Interestingly, several challenges faced by companies willing to de-
ploy IoT networks composed by distributed edge devices connect with
the risks derived from this sharp transformational process [207–209].
One key challenge has to do with the investment costs required for the
IoT deployment, which could be daunting for Small and Medium Enter-
prises (SMEs) due to the unpredictability of the future value chain. The
lack of skills and experience of the current Information Technology (IT)
staff must be carefully considered as well, since it is often insufficient to
deal with the vast amount of hardware and software solutions required
for IoT-empowered Industry 4.0. In terms of interoperability and avail-
able standards, it turns out that current IoT ecosystems suffer from the
fragmentation of conventional solutions and implementation standards
[210]. Moreover, industrial IoT sensors must coexist with legacy equip-
ment that is already deployed on the plant, which must be integrated
into distributed IoT architectures as seamlessly and efficiently as possi-
ble [211,212]. Data security, privacy and governance is also important
[212,213] given the vast amount of data generated by a wide variety of
sources. It actually causes a big concern with the ownership of data, so
that a secure access must be guaranteed particularly for industries whose
products and assets are critical in these terms. In this regard, prognos-
tic models must be complemented by schemes and mechanisms for au-
thenticated sensor access and data encryption/verification/integrity as-
surance so that the operation of the prognostic model is robust against
attacks based on unauthorized modification/injection/removal of indus-
trial data along their life cycle.
Data capture mechanisms are already in place and the digitalization
of industrial assets, products, processes and services are ready to im-
prove productivity, satisfaction and incomes through data-driven solu-
tions. However, there still remains a wide gap to be bridged between real
industrial equipment and their digital twins which are required, among
other uses, to develop optimized maintenance/operation decisions in re-
gards to their predicted prognosis. Furthermore, in many cases data are
used only when the equipment undergoes servicing by a field engineer.
Moreover, the full integration of Edge and Cloud Computing technolo-
gies is yet uncertain in many industrial sectors. Therefore, the develop-
ment and relative higher maturity of Fog Computing frameworks can
ignite the digitalization process of Industry 4.0 and efficiently support
IoT applications [214].
4.7. New services, business models and specialized jobs
Another key aspect of the Industry 4.0 revolution is the concept of
smart services or “servitization”, which is reinventing the maintenance
of assets [215]. The main issue is to enable early prognosis of system
errors and thus to accurately anticipate when an asset on the produc-
tion line is going to fail, why, and how to prevent it, and even to au-
tonomously act in consequence, including self-healing capabilities, to
cause minimum impact on production. This new after-sales business
includes the intelligent and proactive maintenance of the production
assets, not based on preventive nor corrective operations. The verti-
cal integration of data monitored at the asset level with service pro-
cesses residing in back-end systems into the cloud will provide a suitable
environment for the development of cloud-based services to remotely
offer customized and prognostics approaches. Such highly integrated
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cloud-based systems will reduce both the amount of unexpected ma-
chine downtimes and maintenance costs. Production and processes will
be interconnected, embedding intelligence not only in every single part
of the workbench but also in the product or asset itself. As a conse-
quence, this decentralization will ignite even further the need for ad-
dressing emerging distributed computing paradigms, such as the afore-
mentioned edge analytics [216] and privacy-aware Federated Learning
[217], with profound design implications for data fusion techniques and
prognostic modeling as those outlined in Section 3.
The advent of all these new data-based technologies to industry en-
tails very specific and technical worker skills. Data scientists, engineers
and architects, database administrators and business analysts are be-
coming more frequently demanded by manufacturing companies, a de-
mand propelled by the progressive digitalization of this sector [218].
The challenge in this regard resides in the attraction and retention of
talented individuals, a matter that copes with practical issues such as
the relatively low digital maturity of this domain, and the shortage of
experienced profiles capable of fully exploiting all asset information and
manufacturing data. As long as more staff training courses are completed
and academic degrees on industrial prognosis become available, this is-
sue will be progressively resolved.
5. Concluding remarks
This article has discussed on the manifold directions of data fusion
strategies and machine learning algorithms for data-driven prognosis
within the Industry 4.0 paradigm. Three main categories have been
discussed, namely, descriptive, predictive and prescriptive prognostics,
which differ from each other in regards to the main objective targeted
by the scheme in question. For the sake of an informed analysis of the
research activity in this field, a comparative overview has been done
among different methods within each category, stressing on the indus-
trial problems and sectors where such reported approaches have been
applied. Finally, in light of the surveyed literature we outline research
trends and directions that will grasp the attention of the research com-
munity in what refers to industrial prognosis from a data perspective.
Some major questions and open technical challenges have been identi-
fied, not only related to data-based modeling and fusion (namely, highly
imbalanced data, nonstationarity, heterogeneity of information and the
transferability of the captured prognostic knowledge across tasks), but
also to the consequences of their application to practical industrial se-
tups (correspondingly cost efficiency, flexibility, and the need for spe-
cialized training). It is unquestionable that such issues will be fully ad-
dressed in years to come with new advances in data-driven prognosis as
those reviewed in this survey.
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank the Basque Government for its fund-
ing support through the EMAITEK program.
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