Transportation Research Part D 77 (2019) 77–91

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Transportation Research Part D

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Impact of restrictions to tackle high pollution episodes in Madrid:

T
Modal share change in commuting corridors
Fernando Romero , Juan Gomez, Thais Rangel, José Manuel Vassallo
⁎

Transport Research Centre (TRANSyT), Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Calle Profesor Aranguren 3 28040, Madrid, Spain

ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT

Keywords: With the increasing concern about environmental problems in metropolitan areas, policy-makers
Air pollution are establishing restrictions on private vehicles in city centers to mitigate air pollution levels.
Metropolitan areas Like many other European cities, Madrid fails to fulfill repeatedly the legal limits on pollutant
Modal shift concentrations established by the European Commission. Accordingly, in order to comply with
NO2 Protocol
acceptable air quality levels, Madrid City Council passed a protocol to address high NO2 pollution
Parking restrictions
Speed limit
episodes. This paper aims at gaining deeper insight into how emission abatement plans foster a
more sustainable mobility in suburban trips. To that end, a discrete choice analysis is conducted
to explore the influence of the different restriction stages on modal share in a commuting cor-
ridor. Based on traffic counts and transit entrances, two multinomial grouped logit models are
calibrated. Moreover, differences across trip frequencies are studied in order to determine to
what extent a modal shift from private vehicles to more environmentally-friendly modes of
transport occurs. The paper concludes that modal choice in suburban trips is influenced by the
mobility restrictions adopted. Nevertheless, this effect shows to be fairly limited in the case of the
Madrid NO2 Protocol. Therefore, more severe measures should be implemented to achieve a
greater modal shift towards more sustainable transport modes.

1. Introduction

It is widely acknowledged that transport poses a risk to the environment due to its negative impacts on livability conditions such
as air and noise pollution, congestion, energy consumption, and land fragmentation. Within the transport sector, road transport is
among the largest contributors to transport externalities, particularly air pollutant emissions including NOx, particular matters (PM)
and O3 (Crippa et al., 2018). For instance, in the European Union (EU), transport accounts for 48% of NOx emissions, with road traffic
representing 80% of them (EEA, 2018).
Transport-based air pollution is an issue particularly critical in urban environments due to the high demand for mobility within a
limited space. Some figures can be provided to illustrate this fact. First, according to the UN (2018), 55% of world population lives in
cities and this percentage rises up to 80% in more developed regions. In addition, cities worldwide represent spots of key importance,
since they account for 80% of global GDP, 60–80% of global energy consumption and 75% of carbon emissions (Swilling et al., 2013).
This urban dynamism entails a huge number of trips –many of them conducted in no environmentally-friendly modes– within a
reduced area. Air quality problems are particularly severe in urban contexts since transport-based emissions are produced close to the
ground and in densely populated areas (EEA, 2017). Then, negative externalities –and specifically emissions- associated with urban

⁎
Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: fernando.romero@upm.es (F. Romero), juan.gomez.sanchez@upm.es (J. Gomez), thais.rangel@upm.es (T. Rangel),
josemanuel.vassallo@upm.es (J.M. Vassallo).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2019.10.021

Available online 04 November 2019

1361-9209/ © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
F. Romero, et al. Transportation Research Part D 77 (2019) 77–91

Fig. 1. Madrid Region. General Mobility Information (Comunidad de Madrid, 2014).

mobility are an issue that has yet to be solved.

Local governments worldwide are concerned about air pollution because of its impact on health and ecosystems. With regard to
Europe, air pollution is a serious concern for the European Commission due to its various and severe effects. For instance, estimates of
health impacts attributable to air pollution exposure indicate that PM2.5, NO2, and O3 were responsible, respectively, for 391,000,
76,000, and 16,400 premature deaths per year in the European Union (EEA, 2018). For this reason, the European Authorities have
limited concentration values of some pollutants by a legislative act, Directive 2008/50/EC (EU, 2008), so called Ambient Air Quality.
Although all EU countries must achieve this goal, cities all over the continent still keep on facing this air quality problem and have
repeatedly exceeded the EU thresholds in recent years. In fact, from May 2018 to July 2019, the European Commission referred five
countries, namely, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom, to the European Court of Justice due to the high levels of
NO2 concentrations in some of their urban areas. Other nine EU Member States also have infringement cases pending in this regard.
Public authorities have been working to improve air quality by establishing different transport-related measures, such as emission
and energy efficiency standards for motor vehicles, license plate-based driving restrictions in e.g. Mexico City or Beijing (Wang et al.,
2014), license plate lottery or auction in some Chinese cities such as Beijing or Shanghai, (Yang et al., 2014), low emission zones in
Paris, Berlin and Madrid (AM, 2017), lowering the speed limit or introducing variable speed systems in metropolitan areas in e.g.
Barcelona (Bel et al., 2015) or congestion charges in London, Milan or Stockholm (Börjesson and Kristoffersson, 2018; Percoco,
2013), among others.
In line with this trend, in 2015 the Madrid City Council developed a short-term action plan to deal with high NO2 concentration
episodes, repeatedly observed in the city in previous years (AM, 2016a). Given the high contribution of road traffic to NO2 pollutant

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emissions, the local authorities implemented a protocol including different policy measures (e.g. driving and parking restrictions in
the city center) to be applied when certain threshold values on pollutant concentration were exceeded. The main aim of the protocol
was to enhance air quality by discouraging the use of private vehicles and promoting more environmentally-friendly modes within
the city center.
In Madrid Region, three areas with different mobility patterns can be identified: Madrid City, Metropolitan Area, and Other
Municipalities (see Fig. 1).
While the protocol clearly changes mobility patterns in intracity trips near the area affected when it is applied, the impact on
suburban mobility –particularly, for those trips from Metropolitan Area to Madrid City Center– is less known despite its importance
on urban sustainability (at least for the case of Madrid), for several reasons. According to Pérez et al. (2019), up to 28.5% of the total
mileage of passenger cars within Madrid city is made by drivers from other municipalities of the metropolitan area. Additionally,
both the higher vehicle ownership rate in the metropolitan area and the higher share of private transport on trips from the Me-
tropolitan Area to Madrid City (see Fig. 1), indicate a greater vehicle dependence in the municipalities of the Metropolitan Area.
Then, it is necessary to explore whether a change in modal split from the metropolitan area to the city center is observed, in the sense
that under these policy measures drivers may shift from riding their own vehicles to using public transport.
This paper aims at determining whether NO2 Protocol of Madrid fosters a more sustainable mobility. Particularly, the research
explores whether this action plan encourages the use of more environmentally-friendly transport modes when the protocol is in force,
with a special focus on those trips from suburban areas to the city center. To that end, we analyze to what extent a modal shift from
private transport towards transit occurs for the case of a main transport corridor connecting Madrid city with other municipalities in
the Metropolitan Area. While previous research studies have mainly explored the impact of access restrictions in pure urban (in-
tracity) mobility, there is a need to explore their impact on daily mobility generated in suburban areas.
This paper is structured as follows: after the introduction in Section 1, Section 2 reviews the state of the art and practice con-
cerning policy measures that directly or indirectly aim at achieving better air quality levels and its impact on modal shift. Section 3
details the NO2 protocol implemented in the city of Madrid. This section also presents the case study (the Madrid Eastern corridor)
and the data used to carry out this research. Next, Section 4 develops the methodology, and Section 5 displays the results and
discusses the policy implications. Finally, Section 6 draws the main conclusions and proposes avenues for further research.

2. State of the art and practice

It is widely recognized that road traffic is one of the main contributors to air pollution levels. According to Pérez et al. (2019),
passenger cars are responsible for 65%, 73% and 72% of NOX, CO and PM2.5, respectively. Therefore, many cities worldwide have
implemented driving restriction policies that directly or indirectly seek to improve air quality. Among the policy instruments adopted
to alleviate air pollution, it is worth mentioning license plate-based driving restrictions, license plate lottery, low emission zones,
lowering the speed limit in urban areas, on-street parking restrictions and congestion charging schemes.
An extensive academic literature can be found on the effects of the aforementioned restrictions on traffic and air pollution (see
e.g. Ellison et al., 2013; Mishra et al., 2019; Pu et al., 2015). Some contributions focused on how these policies impact on travelers’
behavior, particularly on mode choice in urban areas (de Grange and Troncoso, 2011) or in the entire metropolitan area (Carvalho
et al., 2015; Davis, 2008). However, as far as the authors are aware, there are no previous works related to the impact of those
policies which separately analyze urban and suburban areas.
In developing countries, several cities such as Santiago (de Grange and Troncoso, 2011), Mexico City (Davis, 2008), Bogota
(Zhang et al., 2017) and Sao Paulo (Slovic and Ribeiro, 2018) have used the license plate-based driving restrictions as a policy for
tackling urban congestion and air pollution. This driving restriction forbids drivers to use their vehicles at certain times according to
the number of the license plate. The positive effect of this measure on air quality and traffic congestion is temporary because it
generally promotes the purchase of an additional vehicle, usually older (Davis, 2008). It could lead to a change in the composition of
vehicles and thus higher-emitting vehicles; therefore, it is possible that an increase in air pollution is caused. Research studies suggest
that the implementation of this policy alone is not enough to improve air quality. A positive effect on the ridership of public transport
options is pointed out for the cities of Beijing (Gu et al., 2017) and Santiago (de Grange and Troncoso, 2011). In Tianjin, approxi-
mately half of car users before the implementation of a license plate restriction shift to public transit during restricted days but during
unrestricted days 37% of previous transit users switch to private cars (Jia et al., 2017). However, some other authors did not find any
evidence of a modal shift to public transit (Davis, 2008; Guerra and Millard-Ball, 2017).
The license plate lottery or auction (LPL/LPA) is another instrument to face vehicle pollution and traffic congestion, adopted in
Singapore and some Chinese cities. This measure had a significant short term positive impact on the number of new vehicle regis-
trations and traffic congestion in Beijing (Yang et al., 2014). However, there is no empirical evidence on the isolated effect of vehicle
quota systems on mode choice.
Another measure to tackle air pollution in urban areas is the implementation of Low Emission Zones (LEZs), i.e. areas where the
circulation of most polluting vehicles is regulated: access restrictions by vehicle type, age or technology. There are many LEZs in
European cities such as Berlin, Paris, London, Brussels and Madrid (Nagl et al., 2018; Wolff and Perry, 2010). The main effect of a LEZ
is to accelerate the renewal of the vehicle fleet (Ellison et al., 2013), promote the use of public transportation, and encourage people
to walk and cycle due to the improvement of the pedestrian and bicycle path. Citizens are willing to buy a new eco-friendly car that
allows them to drive through the LEZ (Basbas et al., 2015; Sfendonis et al., 2017). Studies on the implementation of hypothetical LEZs
show an increase in the use of public transport in Thessaloniki (Sfendonis et al., 2017) and a 40% reduction of NOx emissions from
road traffic was estimated in Madrid (Borge et al., 2014).

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Regarding the reduction of speed limit on urban highways, some authors have found out that up to a range of 70–80 Km/h is an
effective measure in reducing air pollution (see e.g. Dijkema et al., 2008; Gonçalves et al., 2008; Keuken et al., 2010; Perez-Prada and
Monzon, 2017). By contrast, for the case study of Barcelona, Bel and Rosell (2013) concluded that limiting the speed to 80 km/h on
urban highways increases the level of pollutants. Nevertheless, it has not been studied yet whether this measure fosters a modal shift
towards other modes of transport.
The implementation of temporary parking policies aimed at improving air quality in urban centers (e.g. restricting on-street
parking, implementing pricing mechanisms, limiting parking availability to residents, etc.) is not as frequent as the aforementioned
policies. Parking restrictions could reach many policy goals apart from reducing pollutant emissions, such as congestion mitigation,
public transport promotion, or public space reclamation (Russo et al., 2019). However, studying the impact of parking restrictions on
the environment empirically still lacks in the scientific literature. Mingardo et al. (2015) point out that the main objectives of the
parking policy are to contribute to a better accessibility and mobility of the urban area and to enhance air quality and living
environment. Kodransky and Hermann (2011) consider that parking restrictions could be implemented when air pollution exceeds
annual limit values. In the case of Madrid, the results from Borge et al. (2018) about the application of the on-street parking
restriction showed a reduction of traffic emissions in the target area and an increase of traffic and NO2 concentrations outside the
target area. Although several authors have analyzed how parking fees affect public transport demand (Kodransky and Hermann,
2011; Russo et al., 2019), there is no empirical evidence of how on-street parking restrictions particularly impact on mode choice.
The implementation of congestion charging is another strategy for mitigating air pollution in urban areas. Several studies ex-
ploring the environmental effects associated with congestion charging report a significant reduction in the air pollution levels (Gibson
and Carnovale, 2015; Rotaris et al., 2010) and increase of public transport use by 9.2% in the case of Milan (Rotaris et al., 2010). A
reduction of traffic volume of 12% is reported in the case of Gothenburg (Börjesson and Kristoffersson, 2015). Regarding the case
study of Madrid, an analysis modeling the hypothetical implementation of an urban road pricing scheme estimated that 28.4% of car
users might shift towards public transport and non-motorized modes, resulting in a reduction in air pollution (Muñoz Miguel et al.,
2017).
In summary, short-term and long-term emission abatement plans have been broadly studied in the literature by analyzing their
effect on pollutant emissions and road traffic. However, the impact of those emission abatement plans on mode choice has been
scarcely analyzed in the academic literature from a statistical point of view. Particularly, there is a need to explore to what extent the
implementation of these measures influences suburban trips entering the city center, given their impact on urban sustainability. This
paper addresses this research gap by conducting an analysis of the evolution of transport demand coming from municipalities within
the metropolitan area to the city center when a policy measure aimed at improving air quality is adopted, particularly a NOx protocol.
This paper is aimed at contributing to the existing literature regarding the effects of environmental policies tackling high pollution
episodes on modal choice and travelers’ behavior for suburban mobility. Based on empirical data, the effect of an environmental
protocol (see more details in Section 3.1) in Madrid is analyzed.

3. Case study and data description

3.1. The NO2 protocol of Madrid city

In order to tackle severe air quality problems experienced in many EU cities, the European Parliament passed Directive 2008/50/
EC, known as Ambient Air Quality Directive (EU, 2008). It establishes limit values for some air pollutants such as PM10, PM2.5, O3,
and NO2. In particular, NO2 is limited to 200 μg/m3 as an hourly average not to be exceeded on more than 18 h per year and up to
40 μg/m3 as an annual average. These limits are in line with the recommendations proposed by the World Health Organization
(WHO).
Like many other European cities, Madrid repeatedly fails to fulfill the established thresholds. For instance, in 2015, the average
annual concentration of NO2 measured in monitoring stations located inside the Madrid’s inner ring road (named M30 highway) was
45.4 μg/m3 and some measuring points exceed 350 μg/m3 during peak pollution episodes. On average, each control station exceeded
the hourly limit during 25.70 h (AM, 2016b). Consequently, the European Commission opened infringement proceedings against
Spain in 2015.
In order to comply with these air quality levels and avoid possible economic penalties, in February 2015 the Madrid City Council
passed a protocol to deal with high NO2 pollution episodes (AM, 2016a). Given that road traffic is responsible for the majority of NOx
emissions in the Madrid Metropolitan Area (see estimates by Borge et al., 2014), this protocol consists of a package of short-term
policy measures aimed at discouraging the use of private vehicles, such as speed limit reductions, on-street parking restrictions,
access restrictions on private vehicles to the city center, and transit promotion. The protocol was toughened in January 2016.
Furthermore, in 2017 the Madrid City Council passed a long-run pollution abatement strategy, the so-called Air quality and climate
change plan for the city of Madrid, or Plan A (AM, 2017), including additional measures to be implemented in the following years.
The NO2 protocol of Madrid City established four stages depending on the severity of NO2 concentration levels recorded at air
quality stations spread throughout the city:

• During stage 1, speed is limited up to 70 Km/h on road accesses between the inner ring road M30 and the outer ring road M40 (see
Fig. 1).
• During stage 2, on-street parking restrictions are applied to non-residents inside the M30 ring road from 9 am to 9 pm.
• During stage 3, an odd–even license plate restriction scheme is established in the inner area of the M30 ring road. This stage only
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came into force on 29th December 2016 up until now.

• Stage 4 expands the odd/even scheme into the ring road M30 and so far, it has never been applied.

Restrictions and prohibitions of different stages are additive. The protocol includes some exceptions for low emission vehicles,
taxi services and high occupancy vehicles. In December 2018, this NO2 protocol was improved by replacing license plate restrictions
with new restrictions based on the emission standards of motor vehicles.
Depending on the pollutant concentrations recorded in air quality stations in previous days, the local government can activate the
protocol up to the needed stage for subsequent days. The City Council announces the activation of the NO2 protocol generally one day
in advance of coming into action. Citizens are informed of the coming into force of the different stages of the protocol by press
releases, websites and official social networks accounts (Twitter, Facebook) of the Madrid City Council and the Public Transport
Authority of Madrid (CRTM), as well as through variable message signs located along the roads networks and transit facilities.
Depending on the evolution of pollutant concentrations, the stage of the protocol can be modified and remains activated until
pollutant concentrations fall under a certain threshold value.

3.2. Case study: the Madrid Eastern Corridor

The Madrid Region has 6.5 million inhabitants and nearly half of them live in Madrid City, in the center of the region. Another
43% of the population lives in the Metropolitan Area, connected to Madrid City through a radial network of six main transportation
corridors. All these corridors have free highways (named A1 to A6), rail services (either subway or suburban rail) and suburban bus
services that link suburban areas with the city center. Furthermore, four of these corridors have an additional alternative, a toll
highway (named R2 to R5) parallel to the existing free highways. The expressway network is completed with two ring roads around
the city of Madrid: the inner ring road (named M30) and the external ring road (named M40), as can be seen in Fig. 1.
The case study selected for this research is the Eastern Corridor that connects Madrid to the east of Spain through the A3 free
highway. This corridor includes two main towns: Rivas-Vaciamadrid (hereinafter, Rivas) and Arganda del Rey (hereinafter, Arganda).
Rivas and Arganda are two municipalities located 17 and 27 km respectively southeast of Madrid. They have 84,000 and 54,000
inhabitants. As all suburban towns, mobility from Rivas and Arganda to Madrid is based to a great extent on the economic de-
pendency between the suburbs and the main city. 56.4% of workers who live in Rivas and 33.6% of those who live in Arganda have
their jobs in Madrid (Comunidad de Madrid, 2017). Both towns are connected to Madrid by the high capacity road A3. Arganda is
also connected by the tolled highway R3.
There are two main reasons why this corridor has been chosen. First, unlike the other corridors within the Madrid Region, the
ending points of both road alternatives, the free and the tolled one, are very close within the M30 ring road. Therefore, both highways
cover the same itinerary which allows us not to consider the trip destination as an explanatory driver. And second, it is the only
transport corridor whose tolled alternative directly connects suburban areas to the city center. Thus, we can consider the tolled
highway as another transport alternative to arrive to Madrid city center. Furthermore, transit connections between the city center and
suburban areas are fairly similar to other corridors within the Madrid Region.
Regarding private transport, the average travel time by car on weekday peak hours from Rivas to the city center of Madrid is
40 min while the trip from Arganda typically takes 50 min. As for the toll road connection, toll rates from Arganda to Madrid for light
vehicles are € 2.80 in off-peak hours and € 3.10 in peak hours.
Concerning transit connections, line 9 of Madrid subway serves residential areas in both towns with three stations in Rivas (Rivas-
Urbanizaciones, Rivas-Futura, and Rivas Vaciamadrid), and two stations in Arganda (La Poveda and Arganda del Rey). More details
can be seen in Fig. 2. In 2017, 3.9 million trips were made from these five stations. According to the official metro schedule, the
average frequency is 6 min in the rush hour and 10 min in off-peak periods. Subway services typically start at 6:00 am and finishes at
11:00 pm, with the exception of services finishing at midnight on Fridays and Saturdays. Four bus routes in Rivas and two bus routes
in Arganda complete the transit supply to Madrid in the corridor. The average frequency of buses is between 10 and 20 min de-
pending on the route. Daytime bus service operates between 5:30 am and 11:30 pm. On weekday peak hours, the average travel time
from Rivas to the city center of Madrid is 50 min, while from Arganda the trip typically takes 65 min.
Regarding transit fares, three different levels of public transport fares are established by the Public Transport Authority depending
on the distance to Madrid city center (B1 and B2 for Rivas and B3 for Arganda). Transit users can choose between single-trip tickets,
ten-trip tickets, monthly passes and annual passes. Transit fares applied in the Eastern Corridor are shown in Table 1. Annual passes
are equivalent to 10 monthly passes. Single-trip and ten-trip tickets are specific for each mode of public transport (metro or suburban
bus). Conversely, monthly and annual passes are valid for both subway and bus services.

3.3. Data description

The dependent variable to be modeled in this research is the modal share, which is divided into three main categories: private
vehicle, subway, and bus. Data were collected from January 2015 to December 2017 given their availability at the time of writing this
paper. The research focuses on the trips from Arganda and Rivas to Madrid city.
Data from private vehicle demand was obtained from loop detectors installed along the A3 and R3 highways and operated by the
Spanish Ministry of Transport and the Spanish Traffic Authority (DGT). We assume that car occupancy is 1 passenger/vehicle, given
near values obtained from e.g. PTP (2016).
Public transport data is based on transit ticket validations from the metro stations and suburban bus lines within the corridor,

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Fig. 2. Madrid Eastern Corridor. Road network and transit connections.

Table 1
Transit fares (values in Euro).
To Madrid Subway L-9 Bus

Single-trip Ten-trips Monthly Single-trip Ten-trips Monthly

From Rivas 3.00 18.30 63.20/72.00 2.00/2.60 12.20/16.10 63.20/72.00

From Arganda 3.00 18.30 82.00 3.60 23.00 82.00

provided by the Public Transport Authority of Madrid (CRTM) and the subway company, Metro de Madrid. Within the Madrid public
transport systems, tickets are only validated at transit entrances but not at transit exits, then it is only possible to control for the trips
made in the corridor direction to Madrid. Data were grouped on a daily basis since this is the most disaggregated level provided by
the Public Transport Authority for bus demand. Furthermore, the analysis only considers the period when the subway service is
provided, between 6:00 am and 11:00 pm. Only days with complete records in all transport modes are considered in the analysis. This
fact limits the sample size, mainly due to the operational problems generally observed in loop detectors.
Data on transport demand and supply is complemented with other variables that can influence modal choice. In order to capture
seasonality and other temporal effects on travelers’ behavior, we have considered categorical variables controlling for the day of the
week and the month. The variable Day of the week is divided into four categories: weekdays (as the reference category), Saturdays,
Sundays and non-school weekdays. Non-school weekdays are distinguished from standard weekdays since they show different mo-
bility patterns in the Madrid Metropolitan Area. Costs variables have not been included in the analysis since real cost conditions (toll
rates, public transport fares, etc.) have remained unchanged during the period under analysis.
Besides, we have considered two unplanned events which can affect people’s travel mode choice: the happening of strikes on
public transport services, and weather conditions. Weather conditions are incorporated in the analysis since, according to Hyland
et al. (2018) or Saneinejad et al. (2012), they could influence modal choice. Adverse weather conditions could cause an increase of
short-distance trips in public transport coming from non-motorized modes (Böcker et al., 2016; Cascajo et al., 2019). The only
meteorological phenomenon happening with enough frequency in Madrid to be included in the model is rain. Precipitation records
were provided by the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET), Ministry for the Ecological Transition, on a daily basis.
Additionally, following Nguyen-Phuoc et al. (2018), strikes on public transport services are considered in the analysis because it is

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Table 2
All pollution episodes involving the activation of the NO2 Protocol.
Pollution Episode Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3

1 11/12/15 11/13/15

2 12/01/15 12/03/15
12/02/15 12/04/15
12/05/15

3 12/24/15

4 10/30/16 10/31/16
11/01/16

5 12/22/16
12/23/16
12/24/16

6 12/27/16 12/28/16 12/29/16

12/31/16 12/30/16
01/01/17

7 03/10/17 03/11/17

8 09/29/17
09/30/17
10/01/17

9 10/11/17 10/13/17
10/12/17 10/14/17
10/15/17

10 10/24/17 10/25/17
10/28/17 10/26/17
10/27/17

11 11/16/17 11/18/17
11/17/17 11/20/17
11/19/17 11/21/17
11/24/17 11/22/17
11/23/17

12 12/06/17 12/07/17
12/08/17

13 01/24/18

14 12/05/18
12/06/18
12/07/18

Total 31 19 1

expected that travelers who are not captive users of public transport may try to avoid this penalty by shifting to alternative modes.
During the period of analysis, only subway services were affected by strikes, with a total of twenty-eight episodes. It is worth noting
that the majority of strike episodes came into action in short periods of time. Strikes took place throughout all hours of service only in
four days within the time period covered. Furthermore, mandatory minimum services between 51% and 84% of the ordinary supply
were scheduled for strike episodes by the subway company. It should be noted that transit strikes in the Madrid Metropolitan Area are
announced, at least, four days in advance.
Finally, we include the variable of the greatest interest in our research, the activation of the NO2 Protocol. This variable is
included as a categorical parameter in order to control for the different stages of the protocol applied. Madrid City Council has
activated this Protocol during fourteen high pollution episodes, twelve of them comprised in the period of analysis (Table 2). As can
be seen, stage 1 of the protocol, in which speed limits in the Madrid boundary are applied in the main accesses to the city center, has
been applied more frequently. More restrictive stages of the protocol, establishing on-street parking restrictions or odd-even license
plate restriction schemes, have been activated less often, particularly stage 3.
Table 3 shows descriptive statistics of the available data sample considering the three possible modes of transport, namely, private
car, bus, and subway. The data sample does not provide information for all days due to recurrent operational problems experienced
by loop detectors, thus providing missing or inconsistent information on road traffic volumes in Rivas Case Study for certain
timespans. Conversely, the database for public transport is available for the whole period of analysis.
Table 4 shows the modal share distribution of trips from each municipality to Madrid during weekdays within the sample. As
expected, private vehicle is the most common option in each case, with a percentage significantly higher in the case of Arganda
(medians of 70% and 5% for the A3 and R3 highways, respectively) when compared to Rivas (median of 60%). It can be observed that
the transit share is much higher in Rivas than in Arganda, likely due to the smaller distance to Madrid City Center and, consequently,

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Table 3
Descriptive statistics for the explanatory variables.
Variables Rivas Arganda

No. Days % Sample No. Days % Sample

Day of the week (Base Case: Weekday)

Weekday 189 58.5% 428 46.9%
Non-school weekday 21 6.5% 189 20.7%
Saturday 57 17.6% 147 16.1%
Sunday 56 17.3% 149 16.3%
Month (Base Case: January)
January 45 13.9% 89 9.7%
February 50 15.5% 73 8.0%
March 48 14.9% 93 10.2%
April 42 13.0% 59 6.5%
May 32 9.9% 91 10.0%
June 6 1.9% 80 8.8%
July 0 0.0% 78 8.5%
August 6 1.9% 88 9.6%
September 26 8.0% 72 7.9%
October 27 8.4% 68 7.4%
November 28 8.7% 45 4.9%
December 13 4.0% 77 8.4%
Strikes on Subway Service (Base Case: No Strike)
No Strike 319 98.8% 887 97.2%
Strike 4 1.2% 26 2.8%
Stages of NO2 Protocol (Base Case: No Protocol)
No Protocol 315 97.5% 878 96.2%
Stage 1 3 0.9% 20 2.2%
Stage 2 5 1.5% 14 1.5%
Stage 3 0 0.0% 1 0.1%
Precipitation Mean: 0.595 Sd: 1.870 Mean: 0.444 Sd: 2.160

Total 323 913

Table 4
Weekday modal share of trips in the Madrid Eastern Corridor from Rivas and Arganda.
To Madrid Subway L-9 Bus A3 R3

Median Sd. Median Sd. Median Sd. Median Sd.

From Rivas 19.10% 1.58% 20.01% 1.94% 60.55% 3.34% – –

From Arganda 15.89% 0.95% 8.96% 0.61% 70.00% 1.83% 5.09% 1.85%

the higher competitiveness of transit services in terms of travel time. Median values for metro are 19% in Rivas and 16% in Arganda,
respectively. Similar trends can be observed for the case of suburban bus, with higher shares for Rivas (median of 20%) compared to
Arganda (median of 9%). This modal split is in line with the modal share distribution reported in the Madrid Region Mobility Survey
(Comunidad de Madrid, 2014), shown in Fig. 1.

4. Methodology

In this paper, we explore to what extent vehicle restrictions of the Madrid NO2 Protocol affect the modal choice of travelers in the
Madrid Eastern Corridor. Therefore, as stated in Section 3.2, the dependent variable to be modeled is the modal split in the corridor
that comprises three main categories: private car, subway, and suburban bus. In the case of Arganda, the private car option can be
divided into two choices: free highway (A3) and toll highway (R3). As the outcome variable is made up of a set of more than two
mutually exclusive alternatives, an appropriate approach is to conduct a multinomial logit model (MNL) (Ben-Akiva and Lerman,
1985). MNL models have been widely used in transportation research for studying modal choice (see e.g. Bueno et al., 2017; Ding and
Zhang, 2017; Hamre and Buehler, 2014).
A full description of this econometric technique is beyond the scope of this article so the reader is referred to specialized literature
such as Ben-Akiva and Lerman (1985), Hensher and Johnson (1981), and Ortúzar and Willumsen (2011). The random utility theory
constitutes the most common framework for discrete choice models and states that decision makers always choose the alternative
(transport mode) that maximizes their utility.
Since there is no complete information about all the factors considered by the decision maker q when choosing alternative j, the
utility (Uqj) comprises two additive components as shown in Eq. (1). Vqj represents the measurable utility and depends on the
attributes known by the researcher (Xqj). By contrast, εqj is a random component that concerns the individual’s preferences and

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observational errors. Vector βj includes the coefficients to be estimated.

Uqj = Vqj + qj = j Xqj + qj (1)

The probability that decision maker q chooses the transport mode alternative j is given by Eq (2) (Train, 2009). For J dependent
categories, MNL estimates J-1 multiple linear regressions and therefore it is necessary to choose a baseline outcome as reference.

eVqj e j Xqj
P (Yq = j ) = = J
for j = 1, J
eVqj e j Xqj
j j=1 (2)

We have developed two multinomial logit models, one for each municipality within the Eastern Corridor (Rivas and Arganda) due
to several reasons. Firstly, Arganda has an additional alternative for the outcome variable, the tolled expressway R3. Furthermore, as
we have seen before, the transit supply to Madrid is different for each town. Lastly, the distance to Madrid city center noticeably
differs in each case, which can be a conclusive factor in the election. Prior to calibrating the models, we explored potential multi-
collinearity effects among the explanatory variables. As some of the parameters are categorical, we calculated the generalized
variance inflation factor (GVIF) following Fox and Monette (1992), concluding no significant interactions.
The data used in this empirical model are grouped at daily intervals, as mentioned in Section 3, therefore a grouped multinomial
logit is adopted. As pointed out by Gujarati and Porter (2009), this approach adapts well to situations with certain data grouped
according to different explanatory variables. Grouped logit frameworks model relative frequencies, a good estimate of individual
probabilities as the size of the population (in this case, the number of trips from Rivas and Arganda to Madrid city) increases. To that
end, grouped logit models employ weighted least squares estimates.
In addition to the fact that model coefficients can be interpreted as in conventional multinomial logit models, using grouped data
has some important advantages over alternative methods. First, unlike obtaining information from e.g. surveys, using real empirical
data makes it possible to analyze modal choice evolution over a long period of time. Thus, a wide variety of real situations in terms of
e.g. weather conditions or stages of activation of the protocol are included in the dataset. The alternative way to consider a large
number of combinations of the categories of explanatory variables would be to design experiments based on hypothetical choice
situations. However, according to Fifer et al. (2014), there is a hypothetical bias in stated choice experiments, especially when, as in
our case, a charging scheme is present. Additionally, although alternative approaches would improve the explanatory power of the
model by including traveler-specific variables such as age or gender, grouped data provide a more accurate picture of the modal share
within the corridor and its evolution over time. Grouped data has been used in similar approaches analyzing transport choices, such
as in Romero et al. (2019) or Schroeder and Demetsky (2011).

5. Choice modeling results and discussion

5.1. Modeling results

This section outlines the main results derived from the multinomial logit models conducted to study the impact of the NO2
Protocol on modal choice in suburban trips from Rivas and Arganda to Madrid City. As mentioned in Section 4, two multinomial
grouped logit models, one for each municipality, have been developed (see Table 5 for the case of Rivas and Table 6 for Arganda).
As seems reasonable, coefficient estimates with regard to the day of the week are negative and statistically significant (p-
value < 0.05) in the case of Rivas. Compared to weekdays, the lower average frequency of buses and metro during the weekends
results in a lower supply that discourages transit use. When compared to weekdays, the odds ratio in favor of the metro and bus
alternative decreases, on average, by 43.9% and 59.9% respectively. In turn, reductions on public transport use are lower for Arganda
residents, since the odds ratio of choosing the suburban bus option goes down on average by 33.4% while the share of the metro
remains approximately unchanged. In the case of the toll road alternative, it can be noticed that the probability of choosing the toll
expressway significantly decreases on Saturdays, while on Sundays it significantly rises as pointed out by Romero et al. (2019). The
increase on Sundays could be explained by the higher proportion of weekend leisure trips generally observed in the Madrid me-
tropolitan area on this day of the week. As expected, variations on non-school weekdays are also statistically significant for all modes.
Categories controlling for the evolution of transport demand along the year are statistically significant and with the expected
values. For instance, the use of the toll road significantly increases in those periods associated with bank holidays (e.g. April – Easter;
May – regional festivities; October – National day) and the use of public transport is higher in the spring and fall months.
Concerning subway strikes, a significant modal shift occurred at strikes days in the metro services. Notwithstanding that high
mandatory minimal services were scheduled by the rail operator, travelers slightly moved to suburban bus in Rivas and Arganda since
the odds ratio of this transport alternative increased by 6.7% and 8.2%, respectively. Subway users seem to mainly shift to other
transit services such as the suburban bus instead of shifting to the private vehicle, as suggested by the magnitude and sign of the
coefficients obtained for the subway mode (significantly negative), the bus mode (significantly positive) and the toll highway (non-
significant).
Regarding the precipitation variable, rain has shown a modest but positive effect on the use of public transport services in Rivas.
Conversely, in Arganda, trips made by subway fall slightly during rainy days, while significant impacts on the bus service cannot be
concluded.
Next, we comment on the results concerning the variable of special interest in this research, the activation of the NO2 Protocol by
the Madrid City Council. According to the modeling results, we can observe that the NO2 Protocol induces a modal shift to more

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Table 5
Modeling results: Rivas case study.
Base: private car (A3) Subway Line 9 Bus

Variables Coeff. Std. Error p-value Coeff. Std. Error p-value

Day of the week (Base Case: Weekday)

Non-school weekday −0.115 0.003 0.000 −0.232 0.004 0.000
Saturday −0.485 0.002 0.000 −0.813 0.003 0.000
Sunday −0.681 0.003 0.000 −1.027 0.003 0.000
Month (Base Case: January)
February 0.078 0.003 0.000 0.127 0.003 0.000
March 0.127 0.003 0.000 0.185 0.003 0.000
April 0.112 0.003 0.000 0.166 0.003 0.000
May 0.136 0.003 0.000 0.157 0.003 0.000
June 0.045 0.006 0.000 0.102 0.006 0.000
July – – – – – –
August 0.037 0.008 0.000 0.043 0.009 0.000
September 0.011 0.004 0.002 −0.005 0.004 0.161
October 0.119 0.003 0.000 0.146 0.003 0.000
November 0.102 0.003 0.000 0.205 0.003 0.000
December 0.092 0.005 0.000 0.157 0.005 0.000
Strikes on Subway Service (Base Case: No Strike)
Strike −0.020 0.007 0.002 0.065 0.006 0.000
Precipitation 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.000 0.000
Stages of NO2 Protocol (Base Case: No Protocol)
Stage 1 −0.012 0.007 0.100 0.019 0.007 0.006
Stage 2 0.072 0.007 0.000 0.110 0.007 0.000
Intercept −1.238 0.002 0.000 −1.256 0.002 0.000

Initial Log-Likelihood −10,787,147

Final Log-Likelihood −10,652,889
Pseudo R2 Mc Fadden 0.0124
p-value Likelihood Ratio χ2 0.0000
Number of observations (days) 323

sustainable transport modes for those trips getting into Madrid from the outskirts of the metropolitan area. For instance, stage 1 of the
protocol increases the odds of choosing the suburban bus over the private car by 1.9% and 2.0% in Rivas and Arganda residents,
respectively, compared to the base case (private car by A3 highway). When stage 2 of the protocol is applied, these percentages are
significantly higher, particularly in the case of Rivas (11.6%) when compared to Arganda (4.1%). As can be seen, effects on modal
shift are fairly different in each town, given that they have a dissimilar distribution of modal share to Madrid.
In addition, stage 2 also produces significant variations in Metro ridership in both towns. For the case of trips originated in Rivas,
the odds ratio of choosing the subway increases by 7.5% compared to the base reference (private car by A3 highway), while this
percentage is somewhat lower (5.4%) for the case of Arganda. Again, on-street parking restrictions seem to be an effective measure,
whose impact increases in parallel to the accessibility provided to public transport services. It should be noted that, based on the
modeling results, the use of the R3 toll highway by Arganda dwellers is negatively influenced by the mobility restrictions during both
stages 1 and 2.
As expected, the only day in which stage 3 of the protocol was activated, the odds of choosing the subway and the suburban bus
increased by 14.2% and 8.0% respectively, compared to the baseline scenario. These percentages are the largest increases in the share
of public transport as the measures activated in stage 3 are more restrictive (odd/even scheme). The odd/even restriction affects 50%
of the vehicle fleet and, unlike other actions, is a measure that specifically prohibits the driving of certain vehicles. Nevertheless, this
result should be taken carefully given the low presence of stage 3 in the sample. To improve the soundness of this finding, the
municipality would have to activate stage 3 during more days.
Finally, despite the statistical significance of the results, it is worth mentioning that stages, in practice, 1 and 2 of the protocol
have had a very limited effect on modal choice. This result would be in line with the scarce air quality improvement in Madrid city
center concluded by Borge et al. (2018).
Concerning the goodness of fit of the estimated results, the McFadden pseudo R-squared values of both models are somewhat
lower than the values considered extremely satisfactory for multinomial logit specifications according to Hensher and Johnson
(1981). Other discrete choice studies in the field of transport achieved similar goodness of fit (see e.g. Al-Deek et al., 2012; Bueno
et al., 2017). Greene (2009) explain that models that contain a large number of highly significant coefficients may have a remarkably
small pseudo-R2. The percentages of observations correctly predicted by the models are between 0.65 and 0.70. In addition, like-
lihood ratio tests were calculated and their p-values lower than 0.0001 in both models verify that final models as a whole fit
significantly better than their corresponding empty models. We are aware that pseudo R-squared coefficients are low due to the use of
grouped data. Including information at the individual level would improve the explanatory power of the model.

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Table 6
Modeling results: Arganda case study.
Base: private car (A3) Subway Line 9 Bus R3 Toll Highway

Variables Coeff. p-value Coeff. p-value Coeff. p-value

Day of the week (Base Case: Weekday)

Non-school weekday −0.094 0.000 −0.163 0.000 −0.094 0.000
Saturday 0.025 0.000 −0.357 0.000 −0.241 0.000
Sunday 0.021 0.000 −0.459 0.000 0.281 0.000
Month (Base Case: January)
February 0.003 0.340 0.048 0.000 0.013 0.009
March 0.038 0.000 0.106 0.000 0.077 0.000
April 0.050 0.000 0.076 0.000 0.495 0.000
May 0.003 0.345 0.089 0.000 0.333 0.000
June −0.031 0.000 0.059 0.000 0.084 0.000
July −0.027 0.000 0.073 0.000 0.438 0.000
August −0.049 0.000 −0.002 0.641 0.074 0.000
September 0.009 0.003 −0.028 0.000 0.123 0.000
October 0.104 0.000 0.119 0.000 0.537 0.000
November 0.054 0.000 0.104 0.000 0.082 0.000
December 0.005 0.108 0.050 0.000 0.089 0.000
Strikes on Subway Service (Base Case: No Strike)
Strike −0.014 0.000 0.079 0.000 −0.004 0.487
Precipitation −0.001 0.000 0.000 0.642 −0.006 0.000
Stages of NO2 Protocol (Base Case: No Protocol)
Stage 1 −0.003 0.445 0.020 0.001 −0.059 0.000
Stage 2 0.053 0.000 0.040 0.000 −0.031 0.000
Stage 3 0.133 0.000 0.077 0.002 −0.022 0.497
Intercept −1.498 0.000 −2.132 0.000 −2.734 0.000

Initial Log-Likelihood −17,198,007

Final Log-Likelihood −17,149,868
Pseudo R2 Mc Fadden 0.0028
p-value Likelihood Ratio χ2 0.0000
Number of observations (days) 913

5.2. Further analysis: impact of the NO2 protocol on transit tickets sold

In order to explore in more detail whether motorists shifted towards public transport services (subway or suburban bus) when the
NO2 Protocol came into effect, we complement the research with a one-way ANOVA analysis based on the records of public transport
tickets. The type of ticket used (single-trip, ten-trip, monthly pass, annual pass) can represent a good proxy for the frequency of use of
public transport. Therefore, we should expect that the use of tickets related to occasional transit riders (single-trip and ten-trip
tickets) should rise in a statistically significant way when the protocol is activated. An ANOVA analysis is conducted to explore
whether differences in the number of tickets used can be identified depending on the stage of the Protocol. Afterward, a multiple
pairwise comparison test is performed to determine which pair of groups are statistically different.
The data set exploited in this analysis is larger than the one previously used to develop multinomial models since loop detector
data (with many missing or inconsistent observations) is not required. This analysis focuses on school days since they are by far the
most frequent and numerous type of day in the sample. Firstly, we conduct an ANOVA analysis of the share of the three types of ticket
most frequently sold (single-trip ticket, ten-trip ticket, and monthly pass). The analysis enables to find out whether the two stages of
NO2 Protocol have different effects for each kind of ticket and mode of transport (see Table 7).
The great p-values (above 0.05) observed for Arganda for all types of transit tickets (for both metro and suburban bus) indicate
that the average share of use of these tickets is not significantly different across days with different stages of the protocol. However,
for the case of Rivas, we can observe small p-values related to single-trip and monthly metro tickets, pointing out differences in the
average share of use of these tickets is significantly different across days with different stages of the protocol. The ANOVA analysis
rejects that all groups are equal, so a multiple comparison test (Bonferroni) has been done (see Table 8) to determine which group
means are statistically different from each other. According to the results, we can conclude that the share of use of monthly pass from

Table 7
Differences between the shares of transit tickets: ANOVA p-value results.
% Usage shares Subway L-9 Bus

Single-trip Ten-trip Monthly Single-trip Ten-trip Monthly

From Rivas 0.000 0.534 0.036 0.318 0.493 0.348

From Arganda 0.182 0.093 0.134 0.452 0.760 0.474

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Table 8
Differences between mean shares of subway tickets from Rivas in terms of the stage of Madrid NO2 Protocol.
Single-trip tickets Monthly Pass

Coeff. p-value Coeff. p-value

No protocol – Stage 1 0.004 0,493 −0.009 0.474

No protocol – Stage 2 0.012 0,001 −0.014 0.084
Stage 1 – Stage 2 0.008 0,226 −0.006 1.000

Rivas does not differ across all the three scenarios. Surprisingly, single-trip metro tickets from Rivas are statistically lower during the
activation of stage 2 (on-street parking restrictions), compared to the no-protocol situation at the 5% significance level. However, the
magnitude of this effect is too small since the difference between mean shares in stage 2 and the baseline scenario is estimated to be
only 1.12%. A possible explanation for this result may be that citizens who neither study nor work in Madrid City and are potential
users of single-trip tickets, avoid or postpone their trips when stage 2 of the protocol is in force.
If we repeat the process by considering the number of transit tickets of each type instead of the share of use, we observe that the
average amount of tickets is higher for scenarios 1 and 2 compared to the reference category in all cases, with the exception of single-
trip tickets from Rivas for stage 2. This result means that the use of all kinds of transit tickets in the Eastern Corridor is higher when
the NO2 Protocol is activated, which is in line with the estimates from the multinomial logit model. Nonetheless, the only differences
of means that are significantly different from zero are monthly bus passes from Arganda and monthly subway passes during scenarios
1 and 2 in both towns, compared to the base scenario (no protocol activated). According to Bonferroni test, differences are also
significant for ten-trip subway tickets from Arganda in the case of stage 2 and single-trip bus tickets from Rivas in the case of scenario
2 of the protocol.
From the results of the ANOVA analysis and the multiple pairwise comparisons, it can be seen that the number of occasional
transit riders during scenarios 1 and 2 is not significantly different from situations when the protocol is not activated, then it cannot
be concluded that a modal shift occurs.

5.3. Policy implications

Based on the multinomial grouped logit model and the ANOVA results, it can be concluded that modal shift to public transport
produced by polices measures aimed at tackling high levels of NO2 on commuter corridors is quite modest. As noted, the inhabitants
of the Metropolitan Area are more car-dependent than those living in the city center (1.55 vs 1.27 cars per household, the higher
share of use of private transport, etc.). The reasons behind that are well known: longer travel distances, the poorer supply of public
transport and unplanned urban sprawl. As the mobility demand from the metropolitan area to the city center is more inelastic to shift
from driving their own vehicles to the use of public transport, the NO2 Protocol should be complemented with measures particularly
directed at the citizens of the Metropolitan Area.
The modeling analysis evidenced that effects on modal shift are fairly different in Rivas and Arganda, given that they have a
dissimilar distribution of transit supply and modal share to Madrid. For instance, when stage 2 of the protocol was applied (implying
parking restrictions), odds ratio for the shift towards the transit (suburban bus and metro) were significantly higher for Rivas, with a
higher transit accessibility, compared to Arganda. Then, establishing on-street parking restrictions seems to be the most effective
measure to promote environmentally-friendly modes in those towns with higher public transport accessibility, such as Rivas. By
contrast, when public transport connections are not so good, as it happens in the case Arganda, residents are captive users of private
transport regardless of the restrictions implemented in the main city of the metropolitan area. Then, some potential measures to be
implemented would include the setting up of park and ride facilities in the surroundings of the restricted area and next to large public
transport stations. Another action could be the improvement of travel times on public transport through e.g. dedicated lanes for
buses, thus making them competitive compared to the private vehicle.
In addition, as we have mentioned in the literature review (Section 2), findings on the impact of odd/even restrictions on the air
quality are inconclusive. Some authors pointed out that this measure only has short-term effects and promotes the purchase of an
additional vehicle. In order to achieve a real enhancement in air quality, in December 2018, Madrid City Council removed the
restrictions based on license plate numbers and adopted restrictions based on the level of vehicle emissions in its NO2 Protocol.

6. Conclusions and further research

This research has explored the influence of the Madrid NO2 Protocol on modal choice for suburban trips in a commuting corridor.
The policy measures activated by the Madrid local government included lowering speed limits in the highways accessing downtown
areas, as well as on-street parking restrictions. From the analysis, we obtain the following conclusions.
The first conclusion is that travelers’ behavior and, in particular, modal choice in suburban trips is influenced by the mobility
restrictions in the event of high pollution episodes. However, their impact on promoting a modal shift from private to public transport
modes (either subway or suburban bus) was scarce in the case study analyzed, with changes in the odds ratio of choosing public
transport modes particularly low.
The second outcome concerns the type and severity of measures activated in the protocol. Measures such as lowering speed limits

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in the expressways leading to the city center, or limiting on-street parking did not evidence to be particularly effective when pro-
moting a modal shift towards public transport according to results. Therefore, more severe measures should be implemented to
achieve a more effective outcome in terms of transport sustainability and air pollution improvement. This fact could be one of the
reasons why the Madrid City Council toughened the NO2 Protocol in 2018.
The third conclusion is that, regarding suburban mobility, transit travel times and public transport supply also play a major role in
modal choice when restriction measures are activated. This research shows that residents of two close towns behave differently
regarding the use of public transport to get to Madrid in case of activation of the protocol. Arganda dwellers are less willing to choose
transit services than Rivas inhabitants probably because the latter have a greater public transport supply to get to Madrid city. This
difference may be also explained by the higher travel times of transit services in Arganda compared to Rivas.
Further research has to be conducted in order to address some of the limitations of this paper. Firstly, it may be interesting to
study the effect of the changes introduced in the new Madrid Protocol recently amended in 2018, which resulted in more severe
restrictions on the use of private cars. In addition, future studies should explore the influence of individual socioeconomic in-
formation by obtaining data at the individual level. Lastly, this investigation is focused on short-run effects, so there is still the need to
study long-term impacts such as car fleet renewals and behavioral adjustments due to travelers’ experience and growing ecological
awareness.

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank the Public Transport Authority of Madrid (CRTM), Metro de Madrid, the State Meteorological
Agency (AEMET) Spanish Ministry for the Ecological Transition, the Spanish Traffic Authority (DGT), and the Spanish Ministry of
Transport for providing the data for conducting this research.

Funding

This work was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO) and the European Regional
Development Fund (ERDF) (Grant: TRA2015-64723-R MINECO/FEDER). Fernando Romero is also grateful for his research grant
funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness and the European Social Fund (Grant: BES-2016-077150).

Declaration of Competing Interest

None.

Authors’ contribution

F Romero: Analytic calculations, model derivation, case study design, and manuscript writing.
J Gomez: Study conception, content planning, model derivation, and manuscript writing.
T Rangel: Literature search and review and manuscript writing.
JM Vassallo: Study conception, content planning, and critical revision.

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