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PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS OF THE PHILIPPINES

Henremagne C. Peñarubia, Janila B. Deocampo, Rhommel N. Grutas

ABSTRACT: In many national risk analyses for built structures, ground motion with specific hazard level
developed from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) has become the fundamental basis for
regulations on national earthquake safety and design codes such as the International Building Code of 2000
(IBC-2000). To provide a similar basis for earthquake safety provisions in the National Structural Code of
the Philippines (NSCP), a referral code of the National Building Code of the Philippines (NBC), and to
assist disaster risk reduction managers and urban planners make informed decisions as well as support the
insurance industry in developing appropriate premiums and coverage for earthquake loss in the Philippines,
this study initially recalculates a national-scale PSHA developed for the Philippines in 1994 (Thenhaus,
1994), utilizing the latest seismic hazard analysis tool and ground motion prediction models. With 20 years
more of earthquake monitoring, new information on active faults, paleo-seismic and ground deformation
studies, actual acceleration records and rupture model simulations from the recent destructive seismic
events in Bohol on the 15th of October 2013 and in Surigao City on the 10th of February 2017, its update
has become a necessity.

KEYWORDS: probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), peak ground acceleration (PGA)

1. INTRODUCTION

The purpose of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) is to evaluate the seismic ground
motion hazard at a site by considering all earthquake occurrences in the area as a function of time,
distance and activity rates, estimating the associated intensity measures and calculating the
probabilities of these occurrences being exceeded in a certain span of time (Panel on Seismic
Hazard Analysis; Committee on Seismology; Board on Earth Science; Commision on Physical
Sciences, Mathematics, and Resources; National Research Council, 1988). PSHA considers all
possible earthquakes that may affect a specific area and calculates the probabilities of those
occurrences for a specified time period (McGuire & Arabasz, 1990). Results could be expressed
in any recurrence and spectral period significant to engineering structures. With the use of PSHA
maps in the IBC (Frankel, et al., 1996), probabilistic seismic hazard analysis gained widespread
use and has now become a primary tool in estimating earthquake hazards.

1.1. PSHA in the Philippines

There are not so many published studies on probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in the
Philippines on a national scale. These include the works of Su (Su, 1988), Thenhaus (Thenhaus,
et al., 1994), and Torregosa (Torregosa, Sugito, & Nojima, 2002), to name a few. Of the
aforementioned works, the paper of Thenhaus has been more commonly used for site-specific
studies in the Philippines and used as reference for the generalized seismic zoning in the NSCP.

The Thenhaus 1994 PSHA model used 21 source zones to characterize the geologic setting of the
Philippine archipelago. Fifteen (15) of these source zones were modeled as area sources while six
(6) were modeled as fault sources. The study used SeisRisk III, a 2D seismic hazard estimation
tool developed by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (Bender & Perkins, 1987).
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1.2. Recent Seismicity and Related Research Studies

Seismic records from 1994 to 2015 more than tripled than in the past 100 years prior. One reason
was the abrupt increase in the number of monitoring stations and seismic sensors of the Philippine
Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS), the Philippine government’s national
monitoring and warning agency mandated for earthquake disaster preparedness and mitigation.
The denser network of 93 stations at present from the meager 12 stations in 1994 enhanced the
recording capability of PHIVOLCS by leaps and bounds. In addition, modern seismic instruments,
had better sensitivity and range. Earthquakes as weak as magnitude 2 within the Philippine
archipelago can be plotted nowadays with high certainty. Paleo-seismic studies of the West Valley
Fault (WVF) (RAP, 2014) and the Philippine Fault Zone (PFZ) (Perez, 2015) and global
positioning system (GPS) ground deformation campaigns (Bacolcol, 2012) since 1995 produced
some of the active faults’ return periods, slip rates and relative vectors. Moreover, PHIVOLCS’
continuing active faults and trenches mapping efforts meticulously detailed each known fault and
trenches’ surface geometries and fault parameters (PHIVOLCS’s Active Faults Database).

1.3. Need to Update

The Philippine archipelago, in a generalized reference to Thenhaus 1994 PSHA, is divided in just
two seismic zones, Zone 2 and Zone 4. The seismic coefficient used in determining the design
base shear in the lifetime of any structure is primarily based on the seismic source type, the distance
to the active fault, the soil profile type and the generalized seismic zone (Table 208-2 to Table
208-8, NSCP, 2010). Recent destructive events simulations and actual records reveal a stark
variance at locations proximal to the causative fault as well as at less seismically active areas.

2. METHODOLOGY

Earthquake historical accounts and instrumental records were collected from the archives of
PHIVOLCS and related research works (Bautista, 2000). Additional database was obtained from
Philippine earthquake events (Mw>5.3) culled from the International Seismological Center –
Global Earthquake Model (ISC-GEM), from the United States Geological Survey, (USGS)
Significant Earthquakes Archive, Centennial Catalogue and from the National Earthquake
Information Center, NEIC. This integrated database was validated, verified, compared and
corrected for typographical errors and duplicates, homogenized to a common magnitude measure,
de-clustered. and reduced even more by eliminating events of less engineering interest (Mw<4.2).
The remaining events were then checked for statistical completeness and formed the final PSHA
catalogue. This catalogue, integrated with the available active faults and trench geometries and
GPS monitoring result vectors, was then utilized to delineate the boundaries and parameters of
individual seismic source zone. Binned rates, zonal activity rates, and the a and b-values were then
derived by attributing the seismicity to each respective source zone. These results were then
inputted to OpenQuake Engine, a free and open source seismic hazard analysis software, and run
on an appreciable grid resolution. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) contours at different probability
of exceedances (poe) in a certain period of time and at different spectral acceleration (SA) periods
were generated and superimposed on Philippine base maps (www.philgis.gov.ph). Contoured
acceleration results were then compared with the reference national PSHA (Thenhaus, 1994) and
matched with the available recent destructive event records and rupture model simulation results.
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2.1. Input Parameters

2.1.1. Earthquake Catalogue

More than 58000 instrumental records of all earthquakes in the Philippines (PHIVOLCS
catalogue) from 1900 to 2015 and more than 300 historical earthquake accounts from 1600 to 1900
(Bautista, 2000), coded as PIVS and PIV318, respectively in the catalogue, formed the initial
database. The instrumental seismicity is a collection of records from the Catalogue of Philippine
Earthquakes (coded as E022) which were sourced from the Seismicity of the Earth (Richter-
Gutenberg), International Seismological Summary (1918-1957), Bulletin of the Seismological
Society of America Seismological Notes (1926-1963), Bureau Central Institute de Seismologique
Strasbourg (1958-1962), United States Coast and Geodetic Survey Card (July 1959-April 1964),
Significant Philippine Earthquakes, Philippine Weather Bureau Scientific Publication (1949-
1959), Seismological Bulletin Manila Central Observatory (1926-1940); from the Philippine
Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) catalogues of
significant Philippine earthquakes prior to 1984 and from PHIVOLCS seismic monitoring from
then on until September 2015. Added to these were the more than 400 earthquake events (Mw>5.3)
culled from the ISC-GEM and from research studies (Southeast Asia Association of Seismology
and Earthquake Engineering, SEASEE, 1985), (Abe, 1981,1982) and related earthquake archives.

This collection of data was homogenized by converting all magnitude values to moment magnitude
(Hanks and Kanamori, 1979) (Kanamori, 1982). The remnants were then checked for
typographical errors, outliers and duplicates and further reduced to Mw5.2 and above only. De-
clustering followed suit eliminating obvious foreshocks and aftershocks. Statistical completeness
check (Thenhaus, 1994), further reduced the database and determined the magnitude bins to work
from. Finally, 1177 Mw 5.2 to Mw 8.3 earthquake events shown in Figure 2, in five magnitude
bins constituted the PSHA database, a measly 2% of the Philippine earthquake catalogue.

Figure 1. Seismicity Figure 2. PSHA Database, Mw Figure 3. Database Sources

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2.1.2. Source Zones

To calculate for the probable intensity measure at every location in the archipelago in any span of
time, the seismic activity rate of every possible earthquake source must be determined. Each event
must be attributed to its causative source. These earthquake sources could be simple fault sources,
complex fault sources and area sources. Simple fault sources apply to active faults while complex
fault sources refer to subducting slabs or trenches. PHIVOLCS’ recent active faults and trenches
maps below delineates the surficial geometry of the first two aforementioned source zones
(www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph). Events not attributed to the known and identified fault or trench
sources were apportioned to that location’s particular area source. Area sources geometry were
determined based on the clustering of earthquake events demarcated by tectonic boundaries and
considering ground deformation vector results. The Philippine seismicity was attributed to 15 area
sources, 6 trenches and 86 active faults for a total of 107 source zones, Figures 4, 5 and 6.

Figure 4. Fault Source Zones Figure 5. Trench Source Zones Figure 6. Area Source Zones

2.1.3. Activity Rates

Table 1 shows the zonal occurrence rates of the 107 source zones. These are the sum of the ratio
of the number of attributed seismic events and the number of years of data completeness per bin
for each source. The Philippine Trench being the most seismically active source zone dominates
the graph followed by Eastern Visayas area source zone. Table 2 shows the area-normalized
occurrence rates dominated by the active faults due to denser seismic activity per unit area. The
Offshore Fault System West of Calayan and Leyte Fault southern segment figured to be the most
active source zone per unit area. The level of seismicity at equal or above a minimum magnitude
(a-value) and the ratio between the number of small and large events (b-value) per source zone
were derived and the zonal activity rates obtained. The double truncated Gutenberg-Richter (G-R)
magnitude-frequency distribution (MFD) and discrete incremental (IMFD) per source were set as
seismic source description. The G-R relationship occurrence rates per bin were also calculated.
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Table 1. Seismic Occurrence Rates

Zonal Occurence Rate, Mw5.2 and above
N/yr
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5

Guinayangan-…

SouthernNegrosFS…

WestIlocosFaultSys…
offshoreNorthPagu…
CentralMarinduque…

ZamboangaFaultSy…
0

CentralNegrosFaultS
SWLuzon

MTrench

LamonBay
FEVisayas

NSamarLineament

SanNarciso-Uson
LeyteFaultCentral

MasbateFaultEast

Palanan-Dinapigue
NTrench

EastCordilleraFault

TamuganFault
Bayog-Dimalinao

LIangaFault

LubangFaultNorth

PugoFault

WestPanayFault
CVisayas

offshoreSCalayan
NLuzon

AbraRiverFault
AmbuklaoFault

Carmen-Nasipit

OffshoreFSNCagayan

TubaoFault
MindanaoFault-Upi
SMindanao

Columbio-DatuPaglas

Ilagan-SanPablo

Table 2. Area Normalized Occurrence Rates

N/yr / Area * 1000
0.45
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
Guinayangan-…

ZamboangaFaultS…
CentralMarinduqu…

Columbio-…

OffshoreFSNCaga…

SouthernNegrosF…
offshoreNorthPag…

WestIlocosFaultS…
0
SWLuzon

FEVisayas

CentralNegrosFaultS

EastCordilleraFault
MTrench
NTrench

LamonBay

MasbateFaultEast

NSamarLineament

PugoFault
SanNarciso-Uson

Palanan-Dinapigue
TamuganFault

WestPanayFault
Bayog-Dimalinao

LeyteFaultCentral
LIangaFault

LubangFaultNorth

offshoreSCalayan

TubaoFault
NLuzon

CVisayas

AbraRiverFault

MindanaoFault-Upi
SMindanao

AmbuklaoFault

Carmen-Nasipit

Ilagan-SanPablo

2.1.4. Source Model

Three source models differing primarily on the assumed lower bound seismogenic depths were
used. Source model 1 utilized a depth between 20 km to 33 km for fault and area source zones and
55 km depth for trench source zones, similar to a 1994 PSHA replication using OQ Engine in 2014.
Source model 2 used values closer but deeper than the average hypocentral depth of earthquake
events per fault and area source zone while maintaining a lower bound seismogenic depth of 55
km for trenches. Source model 3 maximized the depth for all fault and area sources at 40 km except
North Luzon, Far Western Mindanao and the outer rise area source zones of Philippine trench,
Negros Trench and Manila Trench which were pegged at 20 km, in addition to extending down
the lower bound depths of all six trenches to 60 km. All three source models assumed a 2-km upper
bound seismogenic depths and given weights of 40%, 50% and 10%, respectively in the logic tree.
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2.1.6. Site Model

For the site model, site profile type SC (Table 208-2, NSCP 2010) was used where the shear wave
velocity (Vs) of the upper 30 meters of soil layer is pegged at 760 m/sec. A shear wave velocity
of 1 km/sec and 2.5 km/sec were assumed at depths of 100 m and 2 km, respectively.

2.1.4. Ground Motion Prediction Model

Strong motion monitoring and studies in the Philippines is relatively young. A ground motion
prediction model (GMPM) for the Philippine setting require hundreds of records spatially
distributed to generate a reasonable basis for use. A GMPM that was effectively used in similar
tectonic setting may serve its purpose for the archipelago. A recent study in Metro Manila ranked
the residuals of some of these (RAP, 2014). Two logic tree branch sets were used in this study.
Chiou and Youngs GMPM and its latest derivative for active shallow crust tectonic region type
for faults while Atkinson and Boore for subducting slabs were used for all six trench source zones.

2.2. OpenQuake Engine

The open-source seismic hazard analysis software, OpenQuake (OQ) Engine (GEM, 2017)
(Weatherill, 2012), was used in running the calculations on an appreciable 10-km grid resolution.
It supports area, simple fault and complex fault earthquake sources, binning, Gutenberg-Richter
(G-R) double truncated and incremental magnitude-frequency distribution (MFD), Wells and
Coppersmith magnitude scaling relation, variable seismogenic depths and logic trees, to name a
few, and runs in Ubuntu Linux and Windows via virtual Box.

3. RESULTS

3.1 Peak Ground Acceleration Maps

Figure 7. PGA maps (g) at 10%, 2% and 0.5% poe in 50 years, respectively, rock site
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Figure 8. Contoured PGA (g) with 10% poe in 50 years, rock site
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3.2 Spectral Acceleration Maps

Figure 9. SA(0.2 sec), g Figure 10. SA(0.5 sec), g

Figure 11. SA(1.0 sec), g Figure 12. SA(2.0 sec), g

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4. DISCUSSION OF RESULTS

Peak ground acceleration maps of Figure 7 are the results of the analysis at 10%, 2% and 0.5%
probability of exceedances (poe) in 50 years on rock site, corresponding to 500, 2500 and 10000-
year return periods, respectively. The PGA contours in the 500-year return period delimits the
vicinity of the causative source and increase in intensity measure and coverage at longer return
periods. Figure 8 shows the contoured map with 10% poe in 50 years, rock site, over road map.

The spectral acceleration maps of Figure 9 to Figure 12 show acceleration contours at spectral
periods of 0.2, 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 seconds at 10% poe in 50 years at rock site. The more defined and
energetic acceleration dominates at the high frequency end, SA(0.2) and gradually weakens toward
the longer period range, SA(2.0). These values define the nodes of the earthquake response spectra
for each particular location on the map.

4.1. Comparison with 1994 PSHA and with the recent destructive events simulation results

Table 3 below shows PSHA results for this study (rock site) and Thenhaus, 1994 (rock site and
soft soil). Striking differences in PGA values, contour shapes and resolution underscores the fault-
segment contribution to the fault-specific hazard that was lacking in the generalized 1994 PSHA.

Table 3. PSHA Comparison

PGA 0.1 poe in 50 years, rock PSHA 1994 rock site PSHA 1994 soft soil site

Figure 13 shown in the next page are the results of the rupture model simulation of the recent
destructive events, Bohol and Surigao Earthquakes (Peñarubia, 2017) superimposed on the PGA
map on rock site soil profile type, labelled contour lines, with 10% poe in 50 years. The input
parameters were taken from PHIVOLCS website (www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph) and from Seismic
Wave Inversion Fourier Transform (SWIFT) solution using PHIVOLCS’ broadband seismic
sensors in the Island of Mindanao and southern Luzon. Dotted boxes delimit the area considered
while contour lines within are the PGA simulation results rendered in the approximate soil profile
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type at PHIVOLCS’ seismic stations where the sensors are located (TBP and SCP). The simulated
PGA of these destructive events are well within the results of this study at 10-km grid resolution.

PSHA PGA contours, (g)

10% probability of being
exceeded in 50 years

Mw6.5 10 February 2017

offshore Surigao Earthquake
Mw7.1 15 October 2013
North Bohol Earthquake PGA contours (g)
Vs30=360m/sec
PGA contours (g)
Vs30=760m/sec Surigao Seismic Station (SCP)
Tagbilaran Seismic Station (TBP) actual peak horizontal
Calculated PGA = 0.5g acceleration record = 0.4g

Figure 13 Rupture model simulation of recent destructive events with actual records

4. FUTURE DEVELOPMENT

These results are products with aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties that can be improved as new
information becomes available. Rational basis and precise adjustments in the input parameters may
render significant variabilities in the outcome. Zonal activity rates and fault plane parameters such
as the strike, dip and rake angles, used as added inputs in the simulations, prove to be critical in
the generated surface intensity measure and need to be as accurate as possible for seismic analysis.
As more data and certainties are added into the mix, the more realistic the results would be. For
one, the seismic accounts and records in the Philippines used in this study was limited only to a
little less than 400-year history whereas the seismic activity of faults and trenches are measured in
thousands of years. Several known and delineated faults in the archipelago have no seismicity of
engineering interest that can be attributed to in the PSHA database and yet considered active and
an impending geologic hazard to nearby urban communities. With these in mind, other methods
need to be explored to determine these individual faults’ activity rate and potential impact. Crucial
results from recent and future paleo-seismic and ground deformation monitoring studies for these
individual faults may be utilized to estimate seismic recurrence periods or slip rates. Inclusion of
these parameters in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis may significantly raise the probable
maximum intensity measure at those specific geographic locations. With commensurate strategic
community-wide pro-active preparations and structural design adjustments, and in the ensuing
destructive seismic events, this refinement may actually save lives, limbs and livelihood.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Henremagne C. Peñarubia is a registered Civil Engineer and works as a Science Research Specialist II in
the Seismological Observation and Earthquake Prediction Division of the Philippine Institute of
Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) – Department of Science and Technology (DOST) since 1992.
He is currently doing research studies at the Earthquake Engineering and Strong Motion Section of the
division. He may be contacted at PHIVOLCS Main Office Bldg., C.P. Garcia Ave., UP Campus, Diliman,
Quezon City. Tel.: 426-1468 to 79. Fax: 927-1087. E-mail: henremagne.penarubia@phivolcs.dost.gov.ph,
henre07@yahoo.com

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

The following personnel are greatly thanked for their valuable contribution by which this research study
was completed. To our PHIVOLCS colleagues for their support and sharing related research, monitoring
results and constructive criticisms: Renato Solidum Jr., Bartolome Bautista, Ma. Leonila Bautista, Ishmael
Narag, Myleen Enriquez and the SOEPD-Data Management Group, Jun Bonita (GMPE evaluation),
Teresito Bacolcol and the GPS Working Group, Jeffrey Perez (PFZ), Kathleen Papiona (WVF), Abigail
Pidlaoan, Analyn Aquino and the EGGRS-GGRDD Group, Roberto Tiglao, Jaypee Fallarme, Dante Soneja
and Melchor Lasala (Earthquake Engineering and Strong Motion Group), Joan Biliran (reference materials
support), Winchelle Ian Sevilla, Arianne Gail Rivera, Nolan Evangelista, Robinson Jorgio, Bobby Cañete,
Roschele Ablan, Alfie Pelicano and Rolly Rimando. To UP-ICE mentors Pher Errol Quinay and Ulpiano
Ignacio Jr., and to ASEP friends Rannie Ison, Lessandro Garciano and Angel Jaurigue for the technical
inputs and constructive discussions. To GEM (Global Earthquake Model) Foundation for the usage of the
OQ Engine and instructions by its developers, Graeme Weatherill and Marco Pagani. To Phil Cummins,
Victoria Miller and GeoScience Australia (GA) for the technical support in learning OQ Engine. To our
spouses and children for their unselfish assistance and understanding, and to every individual that shared
their time and resources through the years in the accomplishment of this work, our sincerest gratitude.