Professional Documents
Culture Documents
TreePlan 206 Example
TreePlan 206 Example
5
Awarded contract
2
250000 90000
Prepare proposal
-50000 20000
1 0.5
20000 Not awarded contract
0 -50000
0 0
Use mechanical method
80000
-120000 80000
0.5
Electronic success
150000
Try electronic method 0 150000
0.7
Magnetic success
120000
Try magnetic method 0 120000
-50000
0
ID Name Value Prob Pred Kind
0 TreePlan 0 0 0D
1 0 0E
2 0 0T
3 1D
4 1T
5 0 3T
6 0 3E
7 0 3E
8 6T
9 6T
10 7T
11 7T
NS S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Row
2 1 2 0 0 0 25
2 3 4 0 0 0 18
0 0 0 0 0 0 32
3 5 6 7 0 0 10
0 0 0 0 0 0 27
0 0 0 0 0 0 2
2 8 9 0 0 0 9
2 10 11 0 0 0 19
0 0 0 0 0 0 7
0 0 0 0 0 0 12
0 0 0 0 0 0 17
0 0 0 0 0 0 22
Col Mark
1 1
5 1
5 1
9 1
9 1
13 1
13 1
13 1
17 1
17 1
17 1
17 1
0.5
Awarded contract
2
$250,000 $90,000
Prepare proposal
-$50,000 $20,000
1 0.5
$20,000 Not awarded contract
$0 -$50,000
$0 $0
Use mechanical method
$80,000
-$120,000 $80,000
0.5
Electronic success
$150,000
Try electronic method $0 $150,000
0.7
Magnetic success
$120,000
Try magnetic method $0 $120,000
-$50,000
$0
ID Name Value Prob Pred Kind
0 TreePlan 0 0 0D
1 0 0E
2 0 0T
3 1D
4 1T
5 0 3T
6 0 3E
7 0 3E
8 6T
9 6T
10 7T
11 7T
NS S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Row
2 1 2 0 0 0 25
2 3 4 0 0 0 18
0 0 0 0 0 0 32
3 5 6 7 0 0 10
0 0 0 0 0 0 27
0 0 0 0 0 0 2
2 8 9 0 0 0 9
2 10 11 0 0 0 19
0 0 0 0 0 0 7
0 0 0 0 0 0 12
0 0 0 0 0 0 17
0 0 0 0 0 0 22
Col Mark
1 1
5 1
5 1
9 1
9 1
13 1
13 1
13 1
17 1
17 1
17 1
17 1
0.5
Awarded contract
2
$250,000
Prepare proposal
-$50,000
1 0.5
Not awarded contract
$0
$0
Use mechanical method
-$120,000
0.5
Electronic success
-$50,000 0.5
Electronic failure Use mechanical method
1
$0 -$120,000
0.7
Magnetic success
-$80,000 0.3
Magnetic failure Use mechanical method
1
$0 -$120,000
$80,000
$150,000
$30,000
$120,000
$0
-$50,000
$0
ID
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Name Value Prob Pred Kind NS S1
TreePlan 0 0 0D 2 1
0 0E 2 3
0 0T 0 0
1D 3 5
1T 0 0
0 3T 0 0
0 3E 2 8
0 3E 2 10
6T 0 0
6D 1 12
7T 0 0
7D 1 13
0 9T 0 0
0 11 T 0 0
S2 S3 S4 S5 Row Col Mark
2 0 0 0 25 1 1
4 0 0 0 18 5 1
0 0 0 0 32 5 1
6 7 0 0 10 9 1
0 0 0 0 27 9 1
0 0 0 0 2 13 1
9 0 0 0 9 13 1
11 0 0 0 19 13 1
0 0 0 0 7 17 1
0 0 0 0 12 17 1
0 0 0 0 17 17 1
0 0 0 0 22 17 1
0 0 0 0 12 21 1
0 0 0 0 22 21 1
0.5
Awarded contract
1
$250,000 $80,000
0.41335
Prepare proposal
-$50,000 $1,337
0.00887
1 0.5
$1,337 Not awarded contract
0.00887
$0 -$50,000
-0.39561
$0 $0
0.00000
Use mechanical method
$80,000
-$120,000 $80,000
0.41335
0.5
Electronic success
$150,000
Try electronic method $0 $150,000
0.63212
-$50,000 $78,307 0.5
0.40669 Electronic failure
$30,000
-$120,000 $30,000
0.18127
0.7
Magnetic success
$120,000
Try magnetic method $0 $120,000
0.55067
-$80,000 $73,035 0.3
0.38547 Magnetic failure
$0
-$120,000 $0
0.00000
-$50,000
$0
Label in cell on left is the
defined name of cell on right.
RT $150,000
ID Name Value Prob Pred Kind
0 TreePlan 0 0 0D
1 0 0E
2 0 0T
3 1D
4 1T
5 0 3T
6 0 3E
7 0 3E
8 6T
9 6T
10 7T
11 7T
NS S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Row
2 1 2 0 0 0 25
2 3 4 0 0 0 18
0 0 0 0 0 0 32
3 5 6 7 0 0 10
0 0 0 0 0 0 27
0 0 0 0 0 0 2
2 8 9 0 0 0 9
2 10 11 0 0 0 19
0 0 0 0 0 0 7
0 0 0 0 0 0 12
0 0 0 0 0 0 17
0 0 0 0 0 0 22
Col Mark
1 1
5 1
5 1
9 1
9 1
13 1
13 1
13 1
17 1
17 1
17 1
17 1
0.5
Awarded contract
1
$250,000 $80,000
0.78714
Prepare proposal
-$50,000 $1,337
0.39357
1 0.5
$1,337 Not awarded contract
0.39357
$0 -$50,000
0.00000
$0 $0
0.38494
Use mechanical method
$80,000
-$120,000 $80,000
0.78714
0.5
Electronic success
$150,000
Try electronic method $0 $150,000
1.00000
-$50,000 $78,307 0.5
0.78066 Electronic failure
$30,000
-$120,000 $30,000
0.56131
0.7
Magnetic success
$120,000
Try magnetic method $0 $120,000
0.92075
-$80,000 $73,035 0.3
0.76000 Magnetic failure
$0
-$120,000 $0
0.38494
-$50,000
$0
Label in cell on left is the Value Risk Utility
defined name of cell on right. -$50,000 0.00000
-$45,000 0.04452
RT $150,000 -$40,000 0.08758
-$35,000 0.12923
Low -$50,000 U(Low) = 0.0 -$30,000 0.16951
High $150,000 U(High) = 1.0 -$25,000 0.20847
-$20,000 0.24616
A 1.357952354 -$15,000 0.28260
B 0.97301538 -$10,000 0.31786
-$5,000 0.35196
$0 0.38494
$5,000 0.41684
$10,000 0.44769
$15,000 0.47753
$20,000 0.50640
$25,000 0.53431
$30,000 0.56131
$35,000 0.58743
$40,000 0.61269
$45,000 0.63712
$50,000 0.66076
$55,000 0.68361
$60,000 0.70572
$65,000 0.72710
$70,000 0.74779
$75,000 0.76779
$80,000 0.78714
$85,000 0.80585
$90,000 0.82395
$95,000 0.84146
$100,000 0.85839
$105,000 0.87477
$110,000 0.89061
$115,000 0.90593
$120,000 0.92075
$125,000 0.93508
$130,000 0.94894
$135,000 0.96235
$140,000 0.97532
$145,000 0.98787
$150,000 1.00000
Utility or Expected Utility, U(x)
DriveTek Risk Utility Function
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
-$50,000 $0 $50,000 $100,000 $15
x
ID Name Value Prob Pred Kind
0 TreePlan 0 0 0D
1 0 0E
2 0 0T
3 1D
4 1T
5 0 3T
6 0 3E
7 0 3E
8 6T
9 6T
10 7T
11 7T
NS S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Row
2 1 2 0 0 0 25
2 3 4 0 0 0 18
0 0 0 0 0 0 32
3 5 6 7 0 0 10
0 0 0 0 0 0 27
0 0 0 0 0 0 2
2 8 9 0 0 0 9
2 10 11 0 0 0 19
0 0 0 0 0 0 7
0 0 0 0 0 0 12
0 0 0 0 0 0 17
0 0 0 0 0 0 22
Col Mark
1 1
5 1
5 1
9 1
9 1
13 1
13 1
13 1
17 1
17 1
17 1
17 1
TreePlan for Excel 2.05
TREEPLAN...DECISION and
TREEPLAN...EVENT dialog boxes
Add branch
Adds a single branch after the selected node .
(No more than 5 branches are allowed.)
Copy subtree
Copies the selected node and all its successors to the
TreePlan internal clipboard.
Insert decision
Inserts a decision node and single branch before the
selected node.
Insert event
Inserts an event node and single branch before the
selected node.
Change to decision
Changes the selected event node to a decision node and
erases the probability fields from the event branches.
Change to event
Changes the selected decision node to an event node.
Shorten tree
Removes the selected node and its single successor
branch.
Change to terminal
Changes the selected node to a terminal node. All
successor branches are erased.
Remove branch
Erases the selected node, the previous branch, and any
successor branches and nodes.
Paste subtree
Pastes the subtree onto the selected terminal node from
the TreePlan internal clipboard.
Cells
To select a set of nonadjacent cells for subsequent
formatting, select the appropriate checkboxes.
Shapes
To select a set of shapes for subsequent formatting,
select the appropriate checkboxes.
Columns
To select a set of nonadjacent columns for subsequent
formatting, select the appropriate checkboxes.
Certain Equivalents
The default is to rollback the tree using probability-
weighted average values. If you chose to use
exponential utilities, TreePlan will compute utilities and
certain equivalents at each node. For the Maximize
option, the rollback formulas are U=A-B*EXP(-X/RT)
and X=-LN((A-U)/B)*RT, and for the Minimize option,
U=A-B*EXP(X/RT) and X=LN((A-U)/B)*RT.
Introduction Carefully read the following license agreement. This is a contract. By downloading,
accepting delivery of, installing, or using any part of the Software, licensee agrees to be bound by
all terms and conditions of this license.
Definitions The software product, “Software,” means the Pro, Student, or Trial version of TreePlan,
SensIt, or SimVoi, including the Excel add-in files, associated example files, and electronic
documentation files, and also any updates or modifications of the foregoing provided by TreePlan
Software.
The licensor, “TreePlan Software” or “We” or “Us” or “Our,” means Mike Middleton or Michael R.
Middleton, doing business as TreePlan Software, a sole proprietorship, located at 2105 Buchanan
Street, #1, San Francisco, CA 94115 USA.
The licensee, “You” or “Your,” means the individual person or a single organizational entity that is
being licensed to use the Software.
This license agreement, “Agreement,” means this legal and binding agreement between you and
TreePlan Software for the Software you are about to download, install, or use.
"Use" of the Software means the use of any of the Software functions to define, solve, analyze, or
obtain results for a user-defined model.
Ownership The Software is owned and copyrighted by TreePlan Software. Your license confers no
title or ownership in the Software and should not be construed as a sale of any right in the
Software. We remain the sole owner of all right, title, and interest in the Software and related
explanatory written and electronic materials. You acknowledge that no title to the intellectual
property in the Software is transferred to you by the license. You further acknowledge that title and
full ownership rights to the Software will remain the exclusive property of TreePlan Software and
that you will not acquire any rights to the Software except as expressly set forth in this license.
Copyright The Software is protected by United States copyright laws and international treaty
provisions.
Pro License Upon purchase or receipt of a Pro license, you may install and use the Pro version of
the Software for single individual use on multiple computers, or you may install the Pro version on a
single computer for shared use, but not both.
Student License The Student license is only for instructional use by students and instructors, and
the Software may not be used for commercial purposes. Upon purchase or receipt of a Student
license, you may install and use the Student version of the Software for single individual use on
multiple computers, or you may install the Student version on a single computer for shared use, but
not both.
Trial License TreePlan Software grants you the right to install and use the Trial version of the
Software free of charge for single individual use on one computer for no longer than thirty days,
after which you must delete all of the Software files from your computer. During the Trial period
the Software is licensed only for evaluation and may not be used for commercial, instructional, or
other production purposes.
Volume Licenses For a volume purchase of Pro or Student licenses for a group of individual users,
the primary purchaser may duplicate and distribute the corresponding version of the Software to
those licensed users by disk, secure network, secure web site, or email attachment. For any method
of distribution, the Software must be accessible only to people who have a license.
For a volume purchase of Pro or Student licenses for shared use on a group of computers, each
computer must have its own license, regardless of whether the Software is used at different times
or concurrently. The Software may be installed on each licensed computer or on a network,
provided there is a license for each computer that will access the Software through the network.
For a volume purchase, TreePlan Software provides support only to the primary purchaser or to
another person designated by the purchaser.
Backup Copy You may copy the Software for backup and archival purposes, provided that the
original and each copy is kept in your possession and is not available to others.
Accessibility You may not place the Software onto a server so that it is accessible via a public
network such as the Internet.
License Transfer You may not sublicense, sell, lease, rent, assign or otherwise transfer the license
rights granted herein without the prior written consent of TreePlan Software.
Modifications You may not modify or adapt the Software or merge it into another program.
Reverse Engineering You may not reverse engineer, disassemble, decompile, or make any attempt
to discover the source code of the Software.
Sublicensing You may not sublicense, rent, lease, or lend any portion of the Software and related
explanatory written and electronic materials.
Limited Warranty We warrant that for a period of 90 days after delivery of this copy of the
Software to you the Software will perform in substantial accordance with the related explanatory
materials.
To the extent permitted by applicable law, the foregoing limited warranty is in lieu of all other
warranties or conditions, express or implied, and we disclaim any and all implied warranties or
conditions, including any implied warranty of title, non-infringement, merchantability or fitness for
a particular purpose, regardless of whether we know or had reason to know of your particular
needs.
No employee, agent, dealer, reseller, or distributor of ours is authorized to modify this limited
warranty nor to make any additional warranties.
Some states do not allow the limitation or exclusion of liability for incidental or consequential
damages, so the above limitation may not apply to you.
Limited Remedy Our entire liability and your exclusive remedy for breach of the foregoing
warranty shall be, at our option, to either return the price you paid or replace the Software file that
does not meet the foregoing warranty.
In no event will we be liable to you for any damages, including any lost profits, lost savings, or other
incidental or consequential damages arising from the use or the inability to use the Software (even
if we or an authorized dealer, reseller, or distributor has been advised of the possibility of these
damages), or for any claim by any other party.
Some states do not allow the limitation or exclusion of liability for incidental or consequential
damages, so the above limitation may not apply to you.
Termination This license agreement takes effect upon your use of the Software and remains
effective until terminated. You may terminate it at any time by destroying all copies of the Software
and related explanatory materials in your possession. It will also automatically terminate if you fail
to comply with any term or condition of this license agreement. You agree on termination of this
license to destroy all copies of the Software and related explanatory materials in your possession.
Confidentiality The Software contains trade secrets and proprietary know-how that belong to us
and it is being made available to you in strict confidence. Any use or disclosure of the Software, or
of its algorithms, protocols or interfaces, other than in strict accordance with this license
agreement, may be actionable as a violation of our trade secret rights.
General Provisions This written license agreement is the exclusive agreement between you and us
concerning the Software and related explanatory materials and supersedes any prior purchase
order, communication, advertising or representation concerning the Software.
This license agreement may be modified only by a writing signed by you and us.
In the event of litigation between you and us concerning the Software or related explanatory
materials, the prevailing party in the litigation will be entitled to recover attorney fees and
expenses from the other party.
You agree that the Software will not be shipped, transferred or exported into any country or used
in any manner prohibited by the United States Export Administration Act or any other export laws,
restrictions or regulations.