Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Power Politics
Author(s): Chengxin Pan
Source: Alternatives: Global, Local, Political, Vol. 29, No. 3 (June-July 2004), pp. 305-331
Published by: Sage Publications, Inc.
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Global, Local, Political
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Alternatives 29 (2004), 305-331
Chengxin Pan*
China and its relationship with the United States has long
fascinating subject of study in the mainstream U.S. internati
relations community. This is reflected, for example, in the c
heated debates over whether China is primarily a strategic thr
or a market bonanza for the United States and whether contain-
305
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306 The "China Threat" in American Self-Imagination
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Chengxin Pan 307
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308 The "China Threat" in American Self-Imagination
If the history of the last two hundred years is any guide, the more
democratic countries become, the less likely they are to fight wars
against each other. The more dictatorial they are, the more war
prone they become. Indeed, if the current Beijing regime con-
tinues to engage in military adventurism - as it did in the Taiwan
Strait in 1996- there will be a real chance of at least limited naval
or air clashes with the United States.15
Subscribing to the same logic, Denny Roy asserts that "the estab-
lishment of a liberal democracy in China is extremely unlikely in
the foreseeable future. . . . Without democratization within, there
is no basis for expecting more pacific behavior without."16
However, for other observers, even if China does become democ-
ratized, the threat may still remain. Postulating what he calls the
"democratic paradox" phenomenon, Samuel Huntington suggests
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Chengxin Pan 309
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310 The "China Threat" in American Self-Imagination
At this point, it seems there has been enough reason and em-
pirical evidence for the United States to be vigilant about China's
future ambition. While there are debates over the extent to which
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Chengxin Pan 311
for the world: "For wee must Consider that wee shall be as a Citty
upon a Hill, the eies [eyes] of all people are uppon us."26 Couched
in a highly metaphoric manner, the "city on the hill" message
greatly galvanized the imagination of early European settlers in
North America who had desperately needed some kind of certainty
and assurance in the face of many initial difficulties and disap-
pointments in the "New World." Surely there have been numerous
U.S. constructions of "what we are," but this sense of "manifest des-
tiny," discursively repeated and reconstructed time and again by
leading U.S. politicians, social commentators, the popular press,
and numerous school textbooks, has since become a pivotal part of
U.S. self-consciousness. In 1992, Colin Powell, then chairman of
the Joint Chiefs of Staff, wrote:
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312 The "China Threat" in American Self-Imagination
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Chengxin Pan 313
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314 The "China Threat" in American Self-Imagination
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Chengxin Pan 315
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316 The "China Threat" in American Self-Imagination
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Chengxin Pan 317
that he knows "the fact" of "what [China] really thinks about the
United States." That is, "they consider the United States an enemy -
or, more precisely, the enemy. . . . How else can one interpret the
Chinese government's response to the bombing?" he asks, rhetori-
cally.57 For Kagan, because the Chinese "have no other informa-
tion" than their government's propaganda, the protesters cannot
rationally "know" the whole event as "we" do. Thus, their anger
must have been orchestrated, unreal, and hence need not be taken
seriously.58 Given that Kagan heads the U.S. Leadership Project at
the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and is very much
at the heart of redefining the United States as the benevolent
global hegemon, his confidence in speaking for the Chinese "other"
is perhaps not surprising.
In a similar vein, without producing in-depth analysis, Bern-
stein and Munro invoke with great ease such all-encompassing
notions as "the Chinese tradition" and its "entire three-thousand-
year history."59 In particular, they repeatedly speak of what China's
"real" goal is: "China is an unsatisfied and ambitious power whose
goal is to dominate Asia. . . . China aims at achieving a kind of
hegemony. . . . China is so big and so naturally powerful that [we
know] it will tend to dominate its region even if it does not intend to
do so as a matter of national policy "m Likewise, with the goal of ab-
solute security for the United States in mind, Richard Betts and
Thomas Christensen argue:
The truth is that China can pose a grave problem even if it does
not become a military power on the American model, does not
intend to commit aggression, integrates into a global economy,
and liberalizes politically. Similarly, the United States could face a
dangerous conflict over Taiwan even if it turns out that Beijing
lacks the capacity to conquer the island. . . . This is true because
of geography; because of America's reliance on alliances to pro-
ject power; and because of China's capacity to harm U.S. forces,
U.S. regional allies, and the American homeland, even while los-
ing a war in the technical, military sense.61
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318 The "China Threat" in American Self-Imagination
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Chengxin Pan 319
means not only that the United States must dominate wealthy and
technologically sophisticated states in Europe and East Asia -
America's "allies" - but also that it must deal with such nuisances
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320 The "China Threat" in American Self-Imagination
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Chengxin Pan 321
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322 The "China Threat" in American Self-Imagination
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Chengxin Pan 323
The Chinese say they have the right to use force to reclaim Tai-
wan because it belongs to them, and they regularly practice for an
invasion. This threat of force is why on April 1st [2001], the U.S. Navy's
EP-3 surveillance plane was in the area to monitor China 's military
preparations. ss
Yet it turned out that the EP-3 spy plane collided with a Chinese
navy fighter jet that was tailing it over the South China Sea, some
fifty miles from the coast of China's Hainan Province. The Chinese
jet crashed into the waters below, while the crippled spy plane
landed on Hainan island. Washington demanded immediate
return of its crew and plane, while Beijing insisted that the United
States bear the responsibility for the midair collision and apologize
for the incident.
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324 The "China Threat" in American Self-Imagination
keep the peace."87 Although the sale of the Aegis destroyers was
deferred, President George W. Bush approved an arms package for
Taiwan that included so-called "defensive" weapons such as four
Kidd class destroyers, eight diesel submarines, and twelve P-3C sub-
marine-hunting aircraft, as well as minesweeping helicopters, tor-
pedoes, and amphibious assault vehicles. On this arms sale, David
Shambaugh, a Washington-based China specialist, had this to say:
"Given the tangible threats that the Chinese military can present to
Taiwan - particularly a naval blockade or quarantine and missile
threats - this is a sensible and timely package."88
Given the danger and high stakes involved, some may wonder
why China did not simply cooperate so that there would be no
need for U.S. "containment." To some extent, China has been
cooperative. For example, Beijing was at pains to calm a disgrun-
tled Chinese public by explaining that the U.S. "sorry" letter issued
at the end of the spy-plane incident was a genuine "apology," with
U.S. officials openly rejecting that interpretation. On the Taiwan
question, China has dropped many of its previous demands (such
as "one China" being defined as the People's Republic). As to the
South China Sea, China has allowed the ASEAN Regional Forum
to seek a negotiated solution to the Spratly Islands dispute and also
agreed to join the Philippines as cochairs of the working group on
confidence-building measures.89
In January 2002, China chose to play down an incident that a
presidential jet outfitted in the United States had been crammed
with sophisticated satellite-operated bugs, a decision that, as the
New York Times puts it, "illustrates the depth of China's current com-
mitment to cultivating better relations with the United States."90
Also, over the years, China has ratified a number of key nonprolif-
eration treaties and pledged not to assist countries in developing
missiles with ranges that exceed the limits established under the
Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR). More recently, China
has collaborated with the United States in the war on terrorism,
including issuing new regulations to restrict the export of missile
technology to countries usually accused by the United States of aid-
ing terrorists. Indeed, as some have argued, by any reasonable mea-
sure China is now more responsible in international affairs than at
any time since 1949.91
And yet, the real problem is that, so long as the United States
continues to stake its self-identity on the realization of absolute
security, no amount of Chinese cooperation would be enough. For
instance, Iain Johnston views the constructive development of
China's arms-control policy as a kind of "realpolitik adaptation,"
rather than "genuine learning."92 From this perspective, however
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Chengxin Pan 325
* * *
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326 The "China Threat" in American Self-Imagination
Notes
I wish to thank Jim George, Katrina Lee Koo, Derek McDougall, and R. B. J.
Walker for their comments and help on earlier versions of this article.
1. It is impossible to give a complete list ot the relevant literature
here. For some reviews of this debate, see David Shambaugh, "Contain-
ment or Engagement of China? Calculating Beijing's Responses," Inter-
national Security 21, no. 2 (1996): 180-209; Owen Harries, "A Year of
Debating China," The National Interest 58 (1999/2000): 141-147; James
Morris, "Containment or Engagement: America's Choice," Pacifica Review
12, no. 2 (2000): 197-201; and Enbao Wang, "Engagement or Contain-
ment? Americans' Views on China and Sino-US Relations," Journal of Con-
temporary China 11, no. 31 (2002): 381-392.
2. David M. Lampton, "China," Foreign Policy 110 (1998): 13.
3. R. B. J. Walker, One World, Many Worlds (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner,
1988), p. 22.
4. Among the enormous relevant literature, see Tzvetan Todorov, The
Conquest of America: The Question of the Other (New York: Harper 8c Row,
1984); Johannes Fabian, Time and the Other: How Anthropology Makes Its
Object (New York: Columbia University Press, 1983); James Clifford, The
Predicament of Culture: Twentieth-Century Ethnography, Literature, and Art
(Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1988); Edward W. Said, Ori-
entalism (New York: Vantage Books, 1978); Ashis Nandy, The Intimate
Enemy: Loss and Recovery of Self under Colonialism (New Delhi: Oxford Uni-
versity Press, 1983); Michael J. Shapiro, The Politics of Representation: Writing
Practices in Biography, Photography, and Policy Analysis (Madison: University
of Wisconsin Press, 1987); William E. Connolly, Identity /Difference: Demo-
cratic Negotiations of Political Paradox (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press,
1991); R. B. J. Walker, Inside /Outside: International Relations as Political The-
ory (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 1993); Jim George, Dis-
courses of Global Politics: A Critical (Re) Introduction to International Relations
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Chengxin Pan 327
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328 The "China Threat" in American Self-Imagination
19. Alastair Iain Johnston, Cultural Realism: Strategic Culture and Grand
Strategy in Chinese History (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1995).
20. Warren I. Cohen, "China's Strategic Culture," Atlantic Monthly 279,
no. 3 (1997): 105.
21. Kenneth Lieberthal, "A New China Strategy," Foreign Affairs 74, no.
6 (1995): 36; Nicholas D. Kristof, "The Rise of China," Foreign Affairs 72,
no. 5 (1993): 74.
22. Betts and Christensen, note 12, p. 23. For the Germany analogy,
see also Edward Friedman, "The Challenge of a Rising China: Another
Germany?" in Robert J. Lieber, ed., Eagle Adrift: American Foreign Policy at
the End of the Century (New York: Longmans, 1997), dd. 215-245.
23. See Bernstein and Munro, note 8, p. 216.
24. Huntington, note 17, p. 169.
25. Betts and Christensen, note 12, p. 18.
26. Quoted in Siobhán McEvoy-Levy, American Exceptionalism and US
Foreign Policy: Public Diplomacy at the End of the Cold War (New York: Pal-
grave, 2001), p. 24.
27. Colin L. Powell, "U.S. Forces: Challenges Ahead," Foreign Affairs
71, no. 5 (1992): 32.
28. See Samuel P. Huntington, "The Lonely Superpower," Foreign
Affairs 78, no. 2 (1999): 37.
29. David E. Sänger, "Allies Hear Sour Notes in 'Axis of Evil' Chorus,"
New York Times, February 17, 2002, p. A18. See also Joseph S. Nye, Jr.,
Bound to Lead: The Changing Nature of American Power (New York: Basic
Books, 1990); and Owen Harries, ed., America's Purpose: New Visions of U.S.
Foreien Policy (San Francisco: ICS Press, 1991).
u y - ■
30. S
Wisconsin Press. 1978Ì. n. 33.
31. Quoted in Julius W. Pratt, Expansionists of 1898: The Acquisition of
Hawaii and the Spanish Islands (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press,
1936), p. 3.
32. Quoted ibid., p. 21.
33. Jean Baudrillard, America (London: Verso, 1988), p. 77.
34. Francis Fukuyama, "The End of History," The National Interest 16
(1989): 3-18.
35. Michael H. Hunt, "Chinese Foreign Relations in Historical Per-
spective," in Harry Harding, ed., China's Foreign Relations in the 1980s (New
Haven: Yale University Press, 1984), pp. 40-41.
36. Fabian, note 4, p. 18.
37. See Daniel J. Boorstin, America and the Image of Europe: Reflections on
American Thought (New York: Meridian Books, 1960), pp. 19-20; Jack P.
Greene, The Intellectual Construction of America: Exceptionalism and Identity
from 1492 to 1800 (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 1993),
p. 122; and Samuel P. Huntington, "The Erosion of American National
Interests," Foreign Affairs 76, no. 5 (1997): 29-31.
38. However, as terrorism proves too elusive to take on, and some of
its reified symbols (e.g., Saddam Hussein) can be relatively easily dealt
with, China might again emerge as the "preferred" enemy. Indeed, even
during the height of the war on terrorism, both the Pentagon's 2002
Annual Report on the Military Power of the People's Republic of China and the
2002 Report to Congress of the U.S.-China Security Review Commission painted
China as a clear and present danger. See also Joseph Perkins, "The China
Threat Has Not Gone Away," San Diego Union-Tribune, July 19, 2002; and
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Chengxin Pan 329
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330 The "China Threat" in American Self-Imagination
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Chengxin Pan 331
Quarterly 24, no. 3 (2001): 31-43; Allen S. Whiting, "China's Use of Force,
1950-96, Taiwan," International Security 26, no. 2 (2001): 103-131; Robert
S. Ross, "Navigating the Taiwan Strait: Deterrence, Escalation Dominance,
and U.S.-China Relations," International Security 27, no. 2 (2002): 48-85;
and Thomas J. Christensen, "The Contemporary Security Dilemma: Deter-
ring a Taiwan Conflict," Washington Quarterly 25, no. 4 (2002): 7-21.
73. The Taiwan Relations Act considers "any effort to determine the
future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means, including by boycotts or
embargoes, a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific area
and of grave concern to the United States": www.taipei.org/tra/TRA-Law.
74. Quoted in Martin L. Lasater, The Taiwan Conundrum in U.S. China
Policy (Boulder, Colo.: Westview, 2000), p. 15.
75. Chalmers Johnson, "Containing China: U.S. and Japan Drift
Toward Disaster," Japan Quarterly 43, no. 4 (1996): 10.
76. David M. Lampton, Same Bed, Different Dreams: Managing U.S.-
China Relations, 1989-2000 (Berkeley: University of California Press, 2001),
p. 366.
77. Song Qiang, Zhang Zangzang, Qiao Bian, et al., Zhongguo keyi shuo
bu (China Can Say No) (Hong Kong: Mingbao chubanshe, 1996).
78. Quoted in Johnson, note 75, p. 12.
79. Bernstein and Munro, note 8, p. 6. See also Andrew Nathan,
"China's Goals in the Taiwan Strait," China Journal^ (1996): 87-93.
80. Chih-yu Shih, "National Security Is a Western Concern," China
Journal^ (1996): 106-107.
81. James Lilley and Carl Ford, "China's Military: A Second Opinion,
The National Interest 57 (1999): 76-77.
82. www.uscc.ffov/anrp02.
83. Richard Lindley and Chris Oxley, Dangerous Straits, PBS Frontline
program, October 18, 2001: www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/
china/etc/script (emph. added).
84. Whiting, note 72, p. 103.
85. Michael R. Gordon, A Dangerous Game, New York Times, April 3,
2001, p. Al.
86. Fox Butterfield, "China's Demand for Apology Is Rooted in Tradi-
tion," New York Times, April 7, 2001, p. A6.
87. Robert Kagan and William Kristol, "A National Humiliation,
Weekly Standards, no. 30 (2001): 11 (emph. added).
88. Michael R. Gordon, Breathing Room tor laiwan: U.S. Weapons
Can Stave Off Threat," New York Times, April 25, 2001, p. A8.
89. Johnson, note 75, p. 15.
90. Elisabeth Rosenthal, Espionage? By the U.S.? China Prefers to
Stay Quiet," New York Times, January 23, 2002, p. A5.
91. Yongjin Zhang and Greg Austin, eds., Power and Responsibility in
Chinese Foreign Policy (Canberra: Asia Pacific Press, 2001).
92. Alastair Iain Johnston, "Learning versus Adaptation: Explaining
Change in China's Arms Control Policy in the 1980s and 1990s," China
Journal 35 (1996): 27-61.
93. Johnson, note 75, p. 12.
94. Quoted in Lampton, note 76, p. 356.
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