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Ski Areas’ Competitiveness in the Light of Climate Change: Comparative

Analysis in the Eastern Alps

Chapter · August 2018

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-64325-0_11

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Ski areas‘ competitiveness in the light of climate change: comparative analysis in the Eastern Alps

Robert Steiger & Bruno Abegg

1. Introduction

Snow-based tourism, especially alpine ski tourism, was repeatedly identified as particularly
vulnerable to climatic changes. The dependency on climatic resources is stronger than in any other
form of tourism. Snow is an indispensable resource, either natural or technically produced snow:
without snow there is no skiing. This clear dependency together with a high economic importance of
ski tourism in many rural mountainous areas make this the best studied tourism branch in the field of
climate change impacts (see Scott et al. 2012 for a comprehensive literature review).

The future of alpine ski tourism, however, is not only dependent on climate change. Additional
challenges include, for example, potential changes in skier demand (due to demographics and
changes in leisure behavior) and insufficient profit ratios (due to high capital and operating costs). A
series of factors – with climate change being only one – will shape the future of ski tourism. Climate
change, though, will reinforce existing structural problems and thus contribute to the transition of
the ski tourism marketplace.

Climate change impact studies on ski tourism exist for many ski markets (e.g. Canada: Scott et al.
2003, 2007; US: Scott et al. 2008; Alps: Abegg et al. 2007; Japan: Fukushima et al. 2002, New Zealand:
Hendrikx & Hreinsson 2012, Australia: Hennessy et al. 2008). The comparison of results of these
studies is limited as they differ both in methodological approaches and the climate scenarios used.
Furthermore, only some of the impact studies include snowmaking in their models, an adaptation
measure that can effectively improve snow reliability (Scott et al. 2003).

More recently, it was tried to standardize methodological approaches to conduct supra-regional and
transnational studies. Dawson & Scott (2012) applied the SkiSim1 model to investigate climate
change impacts on ski areas in the US Northeast; Hendrikx et al. (2013) compared the relative
vulnerability of ski areas in Australia and New Zealand; Scott et al. (2014) applied the SkiSim2 model
to all 19 former Winter Olympic Games host regions. For the European Alps, one comprehensive
study exists (Abegg et al. 2007), but the impact analysis is limited to natural snow only. However,
there are several regional studies incorporating snowmaking (Southern Germany: Steiger 2013;
Grisons/Switzerland: Abegg et al. 2013; Austria: Steiger & Abegg 2013; Northern Italy: Steiger &
Stötter 2013). Although the same snow model was used in all these applications (SkiSim2) some
model parameters (e.g. for snowmaking) and the climate scenarios used differed. The first objective
of this chapter is therefore to model and analyse the snow reliability of 310 ski areas in the Eastern
Alps using the same parameters. By doing so, relative vulnerability of ski areas – in terms of snow
reliability – can be assessed.

Snow conditions and snow reliability are among the most important factors for ski destination
choice. The attractiveness of ski areas though consists of several other factors, as market surveys and
internet portals show (Österreich Werbung 2012; WKO 2014; www.skiresort.de). In a survey
conducted in 55 ski areas across the Alps with 41,864 respondents (Partel 2012), the top 5 factors
relevant for destination choice were: the size of the ski area and the variety of ski slopes, followed by
snow reliability, slope grooming, the accommodation and ski lift comfort. To assess the
attractiveness and competitiveness of ski areas in times of climate change, it is thus important to not
only model snow conditions but to include additional factors.

In existing studies, this is usually not the case. Factors like ski area size, or business indicators like
skier days and turnover are not or only rarely mentioned, e.g. within the qualitative interpretation of
modeling results. The focus on snow reliability and neglecting other important factors limits the
assessment of the industry’s future: For example, what does it mean when a certain share of ski
areas in a region is not snow reliable anymore? Will all these ski areas disappear and can be assumed
that overall supply declines proportionately? Rather not, as remaining ski areas could take advantage
of that situation and enlarge their offer and attract new guests. For this reason, the second objective
of this paper is to analyse additional factors like ski area size, comfort of transport facilities and
snowmaking coverage. This will constitute a step towards a broader base for interpretation of snow-
modelling results.

2. Methods

Our research area consists of 310 ski areas in the following regions: Grisons (Switzerland); Allgäu and
Upper Bavaria (Germany); Vorarlberg, Tyrol, Salzburg, Lower and Upper Austria, Styria and Carinthia
(Austria); and South Tyrol (Italy). The following factors were included to assess the attractiveness of
ski areas: ski area size, comfort of transport facilities, snowmaking coverage and snow reliability. For
ski area size, the length of ski slopes (in km) was used as an indicator. The comfort of transport
facilities is represented by the share of ski lifts (t-bars). Both indicators were derived from the online
portal Bergfex (http://www.bergfex.at). It should be noted that the length measurement of ski slopes
was reworked in Austria in 2013 leading to a shortening of total slope length in most ski areas. As this
update is on a voluntary basis, it might be the case that some ski areas still publish slope lengths
using the old method, overestimating their slope length.

Snow reliability was analysed using the indicators “snowmaking coverage” and “number of snow
reliable ski areas”. The former was derived from reports of several regional associations and offices
(see Table 1), the latter is based on the number of potential skiing days per ski area modeled by
SkiSim2 (see Steiger 2010).

The snow model simulates snow depth on a daily basis in 100-meter bands with daily minimum and
maximum temperature and precipitation from weather stations. For this study 80 weather stations
could be used in the research area. To account for the altitudinal difference between the weather
station and a 100-meter band in the ski area, temperature and precipitation need to be interpolated.
High altitude stations are used to calculate monthly temperature lapse rates for each weather
station. It is distinguished between dry and wet days to account for days with thermal inversion.
Precipitation is extrapolated with a gradient of 3%/100m (Fliri 1975).

SkiSim2 is calibrated for each weather station aiming at minimizing the difference between modeled
and observed cumulative snowfall and snow cover days (days with snow depth ≥ 1 cm). Snowmaking
is possible at temperatures ≤ -4°C and is calculated on an hourly basis by linearly interpolating daily
minimum and maximum temperature. Maximum snowmaking capacity per day is 10 cm representing
state-of-the-art snowmaking systems (Steiger & Abegg 2013). Base-layer snowmaking (Steiger &
Mayer 2008) is conducted in the beginning of the season, producing 40 cm of snow regardless of
natural snowfalls and snow conditions. In reality, subsequent improvement snowmaking is regulated
by experiences of the staff responsible for snowmaking with the aim to remain in operation until the
scheduled season closing (Steiger & Mayer 2008). In the model this scheduled season closing was set
to March 31. Real season closing differs between ski areas, depending on their altitude and location,
and is between mid-march in low altitude ski areas in the alpine foothills and May 1 in high altitude
non-glacier ski areas. Our uniform date is thus a simplification being necessary for reasons of
comparability. However, March 31 represents the end of the peak season where about 90% of
turnover is generated (Steiger 2010). Improvement snowmaking is calibrated in order to reach this
defined season closing date in 90% of all seasons within a 30-year period, provided that climatic
conditions are sufficient. This rule shall represent the staff’s long-year experience, how much snow is
required. Further details on the snow model can be found in Steiger (2010, 2013), Steiger & Abegg
(2013) and Steiger & Stötter (2013).

For each ski area the closest weather station is chosen to best represent the climatic conditions in
the ski area. Snow reliability is analysed at the mean altitude of each ski area (=mean of lowest and
highest lift station, only including lift stations with ski slope access).

Snow reliability is divided into three classes and is based on two indicators: 1) the 100-day rule,
where ski areas are considered snow reliable if a ski season of at least 100 days (with a minimum
snow depth of 30 cm) is reached in at least 7 out of 10 seasons (Abegg 1996). 2) the Christmas rule,
where ski areas are snow reliable if snow depth is sufficient (≥ 30 cm) for operation during 14 days in
the Christmas/New Years school holidays in 7 out of 10 seasons (Steiger & Abegg 2013). The
Christmas holiday period is very important for ski areas as a high share of turnover is generated in
these two weeks (e.g. 25% in Grisons, 30% in Tyrol) (Abegg 1996, Steiger 2010). These two indicators
provide three classes of snow reliability: snow reliable ski areas fulfill the 100-day rule and the
Christmas rule; partly snow reliable ski areas only fulfill the 100-day rule; and the remaining ski areas
are defined as not snow reliable.

Arbitrary climate scenarios were used by increasing temperature in 0.5°C increments up to +4°C
compared to the reference period 1981-2010. In contrast to using climate model data, this approach
allows to relate snow reliability to a specific temperature increase, improving communication with
stakeholders. A 1°C warming can be expected by 2030, +2°C by 2050 and +4°C towards the end of the
century, although the latter is dependent on the greenhouse gas emissions in the upcoming decades.

Modelling of indicators and data collection – except snowmaking coverage – were conducted at the
level of ski areas. Snowmaking coverage was only available at a regional level (share of ski slopes
equipped with snowmaking). The following analysis and interpretation were conducted at the
regional scale. Nevertheless, the maps also allow further analysis on a sub-regional level. Due to the
high snowmaking coverage in most of the regions, and the trend of further expansions of
snowmaking facilities, results for natural snow reliability are only shown for the reference period. We
limit our analysis to the 1°C and 2°C scenario, thus presenting a future outlook approximately until
the middle of the century.

3. Results

The size of the ski areas differs greatly between our study regions (Fig. 1). In Grisons, there is a
balanced mix of small, medium, large and very large ski areas, with the latter being the only category
that is seen as internationally visible and competitive. The Bavarian Alps, Lower and Upper Austria
and Styria have a high share of small to medium ski areas, illustrating the limited topographic
suitability for ski slopes in these regions. Tyrol has the highest number of ski areas, with many small
but also with the highest number of very large ski areas. Generally, a considerable disparity in ski
areas size exists between the inner alpine regions and the Prealps.
Figure 1: Ski areas classified by size

South Tyrol has by far the highest comfort of transport facilities, as measured by the lowest share of
t-bar lifts (Tab. 1). The share continuously declined from 71% in 1980 to 63% (1990), 58% (2000)
(Astat 2013) and 33% (2013) (Bergfex 2014). Possible reasons could be the snow dependency of t-bar
lift tracks and the higher interannual snow variability south of the main alpine divide, leading to an
earlier replacement of t-bar lifts with floor-independent transport facilities. Styria, Upper Austria and
Carinthia have the highest share of t-bar lifts, comparable with South Tyrol 30 years ago. This could
be due to the high share of small ski areas with less financial capacity to invest into expensive
transport facilities.

The regions also differ greatly in the share of ski slopes equipped with snowmaking: snowmaking
coverage is highest in Tyrol, South Tyrol, Carinthia, Salzburg and Styria. The lowest snowmaking
coverage is found in the Bavarian Alps, followed by Grisons. In the latter region though, the extension
of snowmaking coverage was the highest between 2006 and 2012 (+76%). These differing values
cannot be fully explained with natural snow reliability. While in Grisons, natural snow reliability
(fulfilling the 100-days and the Christmas rule) in the current climate is given for 97 % of ski areas
(Abegg et al. 2013), this is the case for only 44 % of ski areas in the Bavarian Alps (Steiger 2013).
Natural snow reliability is even worse in Lower and Upper Austria, Styria and Carinthia (Fig. 2). But,
due to better snowmaking coverage in these regions, natural snow reliability is only of little
importance. Similarly to ski area size, a clear difference in natural snow reliability from the Prealps to
the inner alpine regions can be seen. Including snowmaking though in ski season modeling, leads to a
markable increase of snow reliability in the entire research area: almost all ski areas (301 out of 310)
could be made snow reliable in the reference period.
Table 1: Share of t-bar lifts and share of ski slopes covered with snowmaking facilities

Snowmaking2
Share of t-bar lifts
Region (%)1 Share of ski slopes with Relative change
snowmaking (%) 2006-2012
2013 2006 2012 Rel.
Grisons 60 21 37 +76%
Bavarian Alps3 67 13 18 +46%
South Tyrol4 33 75 80 +6%
Vorarlberg 58 34 50 +47%
Tyrol 52 60 90 +50%
Salzburg 55 56 80 +43%
Upper Austria 71 43 52 +21%
Lower Austria 60 57 --- ---
Carinthia 73 73 90 +23%
Styria 73 62 83 +34%
1
Source: Bergfex 2016
2
Source: Astat 2010; Bergbahnen Graubünden 2006, 2012.; BLfU 2013; Lebensministerium 2013; VDS 2013;
Wieser 2006
3
2007/08
4
2008

A warming of 1°C would lead to a reduction of snow reliable ski areas to 281 (91%). Non and partly
snow reliable ski areas are concentrated in the northern parts of Salzburg, the Eastern Bavarian Alps
and Upper Austria (Fig. 3). Mostly small ski area fall in this category. 17 ski areas turn from snow
reliable to party snow reliable, eight become unreliable. One very large ski area in Tyrol turns from
snow reliable to party snow reliable.

A warming of 2°C reduces the number of snow reliable ski areas to 214 (69 % of ski areas). Non snow-
reliable ski areas are concentrated in Upper and Lower Austria, Styria, Eastern Tyrol and the Bavarian
Alps (Fig. 3). Again, small ski areas are affected the most. 69 small ski areas lose snow reliability in the
Christmas holidays, 33 do not even fulfill the 100 days rule. 13 medium sized ski areas are only partly
snow reliable, another five are not snow reliable anymore. Two large (Tyrol) and two very large ski
areas (Tyrol & Styria) turn from snow reliable to partly snow reliable, one large (Upper Austria) and
one very large ski area (Tyrol) are not snow reliable.

The picture is very diverse with regions where the majority of ski areas would turn non snow reliable
in a 2°C scenario, i.e. the northern and eastern parts of the research area, and regions with mostly
unchanged snow reliability, i.e. across the main alpine divide. Thus the foothills of the Alps could lose
most of today’s existing ski areas, while the situation is less urgent in the center of the Alps.
However, if large and very large ski areas experiences severe problems with snow reliability as
suggested by the model results, this could have a negative impact on the image of an entire region.
Figure 2: Snow reliability of ski areas today (1981-2010) without (top) and with snowmaking (bottom)
Figure 3: Snow reliability of ski areas with snowmaking in a +1°C (top) and +2°C scenario (bottom)
In order to maintain a 100-day season, the amount of technically produced snow needs to be
increased substantially. In a 1°C scenario, ski areas would need to increase snow production by a
third in most of the regions (Tab. 2). With a warming of 2°C, average snow production almost
doubles (88%) in the Bavarian Alps and Upper Austria, while in Grisons the average increase is
considerably lower with 29%. Note that these simulated increases are rather underestimating real
increases, as we already assume a 100% snowmaking coverage in all ski areas in the reference
period, which is obviously not the case in reality (see Tab.1). Furthermore, these increases refer to
the required snow volumes to maintain a 100-day season. In contrast to the snow reliability analysis,
climatic limits of snow production are not considered in this indicator.

Table 2: Change of snow demand

Scenario /
0.5°C 1.0°C 1.5°C 2.0°C
Region
Bavarian Alps 15% 34% 55% 88%
Vorarlberg 14% 29% 46% 74%
Tyrol 10% 23% 39% 60%
Salzburg 13% 29% 48% 72%
Upper Austria 16% 36% 71% 88%
Lower Austria 14% 36% 48% 66%
Styria 14% 31% 51% 72%
Carinthia 12% 25% 41% 60%
Grisons 5% 11% 20% 29%
South Tyrol 9% 19% 35% 54%

4. Discussion

Considering more factors than just snow reliability, like ski area size, comfort of transport facilities
and snowmaking coverage, is a first step towards a broader assessment of climate change impacts on
the ski tourism industry. Data collection though turned out to be difficult due to 1) a variety of
different sources with 2) in part contradictory information, and 3) differing units (e.g. snowmaking
coverage published in km of ski slopes, in hectares or in percent). The accuracy of some data (e.g.
length of ski slopes) is unknown and can be questioned. A challenge is also to harmonize the data in
terms of reporting periods. Some data are available on the business level, but only for selected ski
areas; other data is only available on a regional aggregated level, although it is not always clear how
the data was aggregated. This complicates the preparation of consistent and regionally comparable
time series. Data compilation becomes even more challenging when looking at economic data (e.g.
skier days, investments, etc.). For this reason, we did not include such economic and demand data.
The market potential, accessibility and winter dependency of destinations could also be insightful
indicators.

Not all factors have the same relevance for all ski areas. Internationally renowned ski areas target
other tourist groups than small family ski areas. Consequently, factors being important for
international ski areas (e.g. size, comfort) might not be that relevant for ski areas acting
predominantly in a regional market. The results show that especially smaller ski areas at the rim of
the Alps are affected by climate change. Due to the small size, these ski areas only have a small share
of skier visits. It could thus be concluded that their exit from the market would not lead to significant
overall losses. On the other hand, it should be considered that these ski areas have an important
function as rather inexpensive, easily accessible alternatives to large, expensive ski areas in the inner
alpine regions. This is an important aspect especially for beginners and families with kids living in
metropolitan areas in vicinity to the alpine foothills (e.g. Munich, Vienna). If these ski areas would
vanish, the larger ski areas in the center of the Alps could lose some of their market potential as less
people go skiing due to higher entry barriers to this activity.

The last three winter seasons 2013/14 to 2015/16 were extraordinary warm and snow deficient. It
was evident that ski areas with state-of-the-art snowmaking systems were more successful than ski
areas with no or little snowmaking. Nevertheless, too warm temperatures to produce snow in
December threatened the important Christmas period throughout the Alps. And although ski area
managers were satisfied with snow conditions (due to snowmaking) they also complained about a
decline of demand especially from day-visitors. Skier surveys in snow deficient winter seasons
showed that possible reasons for fewer skiing days are anticipated bad snow conditions, lack of
winter feeling in the source markets, but also be non-snow related like time or financial constraints
(Steiger et al. 2015). This suggests that there is a number of aspects affecting the demand side still
being insufficiently understood (see e.g. Dawson et al. 2011, Pons-Pons et al. 2012, Rutty et al.
2015a,b, Scott & Steiger 2013, Steiger 2012).

Experiences from past snow-deficient winter seasons and modeling results show a considerable
potential of snowmaking, but the technical and climatic limits are also evident. In order to remain
snow reliable, more snow needs to be produced in shorter time windows being suitable for
snowmaking, resulting in higher resource consumption and costs. Apart from technical or climatic
limits, the ecological and economic impacts of snowmaking and the resource consumption need to
be better analysed (Pickering & Buckley 2010; Rixen et al. 2011; Abegg 2012).

The regions analyzed in this chapter show a greatly differing attractiveness for skiers. It is likely that
these differences become even more accentuated in the future. Challenges originating from change
– not restricted to climatic change but also considering demographic change, etc. – will have
regionally differing impacts. Therefore, strategies and visions need to be tailored to regional or local
conditions. Currently, the main strategy in the less developed regions is trying to catch up, although
the framework conditions (e.g. financial, climatic, topographic, market potential) are not always
suitable for such a development path. A rethinking process can hardly be seen. On the contrary:
where ski areas are not profitable anymore, the public domain grants subsidies or even takes over
and operates these ski areas. Bearing in mind a stagnating skier market ({Vanat 2014 #680}) and
increasing deficits of public budgets, this preservation of structures needs to be questioned. In light
of climate change, such strategies do not appear to be future-oriented.
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