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E X P E C TAT I O N F1

Surprise &
Adaptation
img: A.
img: Kneazle.jpg
A. Kneazle.jpg

I used to
When I heard
be really
this excited
song ontothe
uncover
radio I
hadsurprise
the to buy the
toyalbum.
within the
Now chocolate
it’s all I hear
and I but
egg, can’tnow
stand
I don’t
a single
reallybeat.
collect them
anymore.

Adapted by ©2013
DIC fromDIC
IIT Institute
from ©2010
of Design
IIT Institute of Design
E X P E C TAT I O N F1

People are excited by things


that are unexpected, while
predictable events may lose
impact over time.
E X P E C TAT I O N F1

Placebo
Effect
img: Medizinflascheflasche

Medicine Sugar water

Expecting to feel less pain can actually


make you feel less pain.

Adapted by ©2013 DIC from ©2010 IIT Institute of Design


E X P E C TAT I O N F1

People’s experiences align


with their expectations
about what will happen.
E X P E C TAT I O N F1

Impact Bias
(Affective Forecasting Error)

img: corbis

“I’ll love that car forever!”

Adapted by ©2013 DIC from ©2010 IIT Institute of Design


E X P E C TAT I O N F1

People tend to overestimate


how long and how intense
their future feelings will be.
E X P E C TAT I O N F1

Anticipation of
Rewards
img: flickr

All Jack could think about was the small


toy he won from the cereal box competi-
tion. But when it arrived, he had already
moved on to the next contest.

Adapted by DIC from IIT Institute of Design


E X P E C TAT I O N F1

People are more excited by


the prospect of a reward
than the reward itself. This
anticipation can contribute
to addictive behavior.
TIME F2

Impact Bias
(Affective Forecasting Error)

img: corbis

“I’ll love that car forever!”

Adapted by ©2013 DIC from ©2010 IIT Institute of Design


TIME F2

People tend to overestimate


how long and how intense
their future feelings will be.
TIME F2

Hyperbolic
Discounting

img: Vimeo Corbis

Children were offered a choice between a


marshmallow immediately or two marsh-
mallows if they waited for 15minutes. Kids
struggled to resist the single marshmallow
placed before them while some kids ate the
marshmallow immediately. (Stanford)

Adapted by ©2013 DIC from ©2010 IIT Institute of Design


TIME F2

People tend to value the


present over the future.
(Exception: If both choices
are far enough in the future,
people prefer the greater
benefit.)
TIME F2

Intertemporal
Choice
img: StaticGuimUK

Shopping in the supermarket while hun-


gry can often lead to purchasing more
than what was on you initial shopping
list.

Adapted by ©2013 DIC from ©2010 IIT Institute of Design


TIME F2

People lack empathy for


their future-self and needs.
When making decisions for
the future, people tend to
focus on how they feel now.
TIME F2

Optimism Bias

img: JaredWilson

People are optimistic when it comes to


big decisions. 50% of marriages end in
divorce, but at the time of the ceremony,
almost all couples believe there is zero
chance of getting a divorce. This holds
true, even if they are on their second
marriage. (Thaler and Sunstein)

Adapted by ©2013 DIC from ©2010 IIT Institute of Design


TIME F2

People tend to be overly


confident about the
outcome of planned actions
and decisions.
TIME F2

Planning
Fallacy
img: calfinder

The contractor told me that the roof


would only take 4 days to fix. Of course
this didn’t happen as expected and the
project dragged on for 3 weeks.

Adapted by ©2013 DIC from ©2010 IIT Institute of Design


TIME F2

People tend to underestimate


the time it takes to complete
tasks.
TIME F2

Attentional
Collapse

img: Amadeus_theguardian

We expect a family reunion to be dull if


we compare it with a relaxing trip, and
delightful if we compare it with working
overtime. But, when people are mentally
engaged in the event, they tend not to
think about the other things they could
have done instead. (Daniel Gilbert)
Adapted by ©2013 DIC from ©2010 IIT Institute of Design
TIME F2

People tend to make


comparison with future or
past experiences when
predicting how much
they will enjoy a future
experience.
TIME F2

Decoupling
img: EileenNorman

Credit cards make purchases less pain-


ful by pushing people’s cash outlay into
the future.

Adapted by ©2013 DIC from ©2010 IIT Institute of Design


TIME F2

People don’t always


connect their actions to its
consequences. The longer
the delay between an action
and its consequence, the
weaker the link in people’s
minds.
LOSS F3

Loss Aversion

img: A. Clarissa Hartson

People tend to sell stocks that have


increased in value, but hold on to depreci-
ating stocks twice as long. Over time, this
may lead to a portfolio of shares that are
losing money. This is because people are
afraid to take a loss, and postponing the
sale of a losing stock avoids the tangibility
of the loss. (Lehrer)
Adapted by ©2013 DIC from ©2010 IIT Institute of Design
LOSS F3

People tend to focus on


potential loss more than
potential gain. A loss is
more painful to people
than an equivalent gain is
rewarding to them.
LOSS F3

Hedonic
Framing

img: BenWojdyla

Ann received 5 parking tickets stacked and


issued on separate days. Although the 5
fines added up to the same amount as 1
speeding ticket she received last month, the
5 separate tickets still felt worst.
Adapted by ©2013 DIC from ©2010 IIT Institute of Design
LOSS F3

People tend to view 2 gains


occurring separately as
having more value than 1
large gain of equal
value. However, 2 losses
occurring separately are
more painful than 1 large
loss.
LOSS F3

Commitment

img: Ikea_Lindsay

I’ve spent the whole day fixing up my new


IKEA table. I think it’s the best thing in the
world and will never throw it away.

Adapted by ©2013 DIC from ©2010 IIT Institute of Design


LOSS F3

People tend to have trouble


letting go of something
when time and effort have
been invested, even if it’s
taking them down a long
dark path.
OWNERSHIP F4

Endowment
Effect

img: Anthony Rosenberg

“Look around your house. Pick something.


How much would you sell it for? How much
would people really pay for it? The contents
of your house are more valuable to you
than to other people.”(ChangingMinds.org)

Adapted by ©2013 DIC from ©2010 IIT Institute of Design


OWNERSHIP F4

People tend to value things


they own more than others
value them—this includes
abstract things such as
ideas and beliefs.
OWNERSHIP F4

Actor-Observer
Bias
img: Jean Kelley

He had a bad team experience because


he’s very stubborn. But I had a bad
team experience because we didn’t
meet enough.

Adapted by ©2013 DIC from ©2010 IIT Institute of Design


OWNERSHIP F4

People often attribute


successes to their own
actions and virtues,
and blame problems on
situational factors.
EXTERNAL CUES S1

Status Quo
Bias
img: 123rf

In Germany’s opt-in organ donation


program, only 12% of citizens
consented to donate. But in Austria,
where they have established an
opt-out program, 99% consented.
(Thaler and Sunstein)
Adapted by ©2013 DIC from ©2010 IIT Institute of Design
EXTERNAL CUES S1

People tend to choose not


to make decisions. The most
frequently selected option
will often be the default
because people are
unwilling to commit to the
time and risk associated
with choice.
EXTERNAL CUES S1

Bandwagon
Effect
img: hotelchatter

Guests who received signs saying “75%


of guests who stayed in this Room 222
reused their towels” reused their towels
more than rooms that just say “help save
the environment”. (Mindlin)

Adapted by ©2013 DIC from ©2010 IIT Institute of Design


EXTERNAL CUES S1

People tend to do or believe


things because many other
people do or believe the
same.
C O M PA RT M E N T S S2

Framing

img: Canstockphoto

One person sees a holiday in the hills as


an opportunity for outdoor exercise. Her
friend sees it as a chance for a quiet
read. Her son sees it as a long period of
boredom. (ChangingMinds.org)

Adapted by ©2013 DIC from ©2010 IIT Institute of Design


EXTERNAL CUES S2

People tend to draw


different conclusions based
on how data is presented.
Differences include: the
information source, context,
loss/gain and personal
attributes appealed to.
C O M PA RT M E N T S S2

Choice
Bracketing
img: SimplyShredded

People buying coffee daily don’t feel


that $5 a day is a big deal, but the
$1000 a year is more than they would
be willing to pay.

Adapted by ©2013 DIC from ©2010 IIT Institute of Design


EXTERNAL CUES S2

Boundaries are drawn


around information when
one makes a decision.
Broad bracketing takes
into account a wider
context with more choices.
People tend to bracket
Narrowly (include fewer or
single choices) despite the
tendency of more desirable
decisions through broad
bracketing.
C O M PA RT M E N T S S2

Mental
Accounting

img: Dem10

People tend to think of their salary as


lump sums. But when they are paid
hourly, it’s much easier to equate a job
with specific items. “If I do an extra shift,
I can buy that new sofa.” (Schmidt)
Adapted by ©2013 DIC from ©2010 IIT Institute of Design
EXTERNAL CUES S2

People tend to think about


the world in terms of
specific accounts, where
value isn’t interchangeable.
C O M PA RT M E N T S S2

Identity

img: AutomotiveBuzzz

Rob wants to buy a new flashy sports


car, but his wife reminds him that he is
already a father of 3 and they need a
practical car that fits the family.

Adapted by ©2013 DIC from ©2010 IIT Institute of Design


EXTERNAL CUES S2

People view themselves


(feelings, mind-sets,
thoughts, behaviours,
values, priorities) as
internally consistent.
Context and the way things
are framed can radically
affect how people behave.
This results in transitional
identities throughout the
day.
C O M PA RT M E N T S S2

Business vs.
Social Norms
img: Normas_globalpost

Day care centres fine parents for late


pickups. However this backfired when
parents no longer feel guilty but instead
treat it as a paid service.

Adapted by ©2013 DIC from ©2010 IIT Institute of Design


EXTERNAL CUES S2

Money changes the way


people evaluate their
choices and view their
behavior. It can shift people
into a business mind set
and violate social norms.
M E N TA L M O D E L S S3

Information
Avoidance

img: Corbis

People with negative views about


cancer are more likely to avoid cancer
information, as they do not want to
allow their negative feelings and views
to continue.
Adapted by ©2013 DIC from ©2010 IIT Institute of Design
M E N TA L M O D E L S S3

People tend to avoid


information when faced
with extreme cases of
stories or images. They also
assume they can avoid by
ignoring them.
M E N TA L M O D E L S S3

Resolving
Cognitive
Dissonance

img: psychpage

Sam wants to live a long healthy life. Even


though smoking causes lung cancer, he
still smokes. He rationalizes his behaviour
by telling himself that not everyone who
smokes will get lung cancer.
Adapted by ©2013 DIC from ©2010 IIT Institute of Design
M E N TA L M O D E L S S3

People feel a need to


resolve having multiple
contradictory states or
beliefs in their minds.
Sometimes this leads to
rationalizing evidences that
don’t support their choices.
M E N TA L M O D E L S S3

Diagnosis Bias

img: Corbis

Job interview candidates are judged


based on their initial impression, and
it’s difficult to overcome that initial
assessment later on.

Adapted by ©2013 DIC from ©2010 IIT Institute of Design


M E N TA L M O D E L S S3

People tend to label


people, ideas or things
based on initial opinions,
and have an inability to
reconsider these judgments
later on.
Q U I C K I N D I C AT O R S S4

Diagnosis Bias

img: Corbis

People tend to label people, ideas or


things based on initial opinions, and
have an inability to reconsider these
judgments later on.

Adapted by ©2013 DIC from ©2010 IIT Institute of Design


Q U I C K I N D I C AT O R S S4

People tend to label


people, ideas or things
based on initial opinions,
and have an inability to
reconsider these judgments
later on.
Q U I C K I N D I C AT O R S S4

Ambiguity Effect

img: SingaporeIdol_BILOXI

I know there is a moderate chance of


me winning the local singing compe-
tition. There is another competition in
Malaysia but I do not know how good
the singers are there. Rather than risking
it, I just enter for the local competition.

Adapted by ©2013 DIC from ©2010 IIT Institute of Design


Q U I C K I N D I C AT O R S S4

People tend to avoid


options where they feel they
are unable to understand
the risks because of
missing information.

Adapted by DIC from IIT Institute of Design


Q U I C K I N D I C AT O R S S4

Segregation
img: 2013jeepaccessories

While buying a new car, Alex made his


decision solely on financing incentives.
A few months later, he regretted that he
had neglected to investigate the car’s
hefty maintenance costs.

Adapted by ©2013 DIC from ©2010 IIT Institute of Design


Q U I C K I N D I C AT O R S S4

People tend to focus on


things that seem most
relevant. Additional
details may be left out or
discarded.

Adapted by DIC from IIT Institute of Design


Q U I C K I N D I C AT O R S S4

Certainty Bias
img: Nick Reese

People purchase warranties because


not having to worry at all is worth more
than the money spent.

Adapted by ©2013 DIC from ©2010 IIT Institute of Design


Q U I C K I N D I C AT O R S S4

People tend to value


reducing risk to zero more
than other comparable
reductions (e.g. a risk
reduction from 5% to 0% is
more valuable than 20%
to 15%)

Adapted by DIC from IIT Institute of Design


Q U I C K I N D I C AT O R S S4

Availability
img: mylilventure

“I should go for a mammogram soon!


My friend of the same age just got diag-
nosed with breast cancer recently.”

Adapted by ©2013 DIC from ©2010 IIT Institute of Design


Q U I C K I N D I C AT O R S S4

People tend to rely on easy-


to-access examples when
making decisions. These
examples are most often
recent, vivid, and personal
stories.

Adapted by DIC from IIT Institute of Design


Q U I C K I N D I C AT O R S S4

Anchoring

img: tabrar&Earle
$12 $10 $8

Given three options, people tend to


choose the middle one: it seems like a
good deal compared to the high end
option. Very few select the lowest priced
option. (Ariely)

Adapted by ©2013 DIC from ©2010 IIT Institute of Design


Q U I C K I N D I C AT O R S S4

People tend to use a


familiar or previously
introduced piece of
information as a reference
point, and make
subsequent decisions
relative to that anchor.
Sometimes even a
meaningless anchor can
have a strong influence on
a person.
Adapted by DIC from IIT Institute of Design
Q U I C K I N D I C AT O R S S4

Representativeness

img: Michael Sands

He is an extremely athletic young


man who drives a fast car and has an
attractive girlfriend. Do you think he is a
professional footballer or a nurse?

Adapted by ©2013 DIC from ©2010 IIT Institute of Design


Q U I C K I N D I C AT O R S S4

People tend to assume a


limited sample or stereotype
is representative of a larger
trend or population.

Adapted by DIC from IIT Institute of Design


Q U I C K I N D I C AT O R S S4

Clustering
Illusion
img: Illusion_gulfnews

“It will rain during our soccer match


today. It has been raining for the past
few times we played soccer”.

Adapted by ©2013 DIC from ©2010 IIT Institute of Design


Q U I C K I N D I C AT O R S S4

People tend to see patterns


where actually none exist.

Adapted by DIC from IIT Institute of Design

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