You are on page 1of 34

17ME601

OPERATIONS RESEARCH
1. Operations Research an Introduction, Taha H. A. 8th edition – Pearson Education 2007
2. Operations Research, S. D. Sharma -Kedarnath Ramnath & Co 2002.
3. Quantitative Techniques in Management, N D Vohra- Tata McGraw Hill Education Private Limited, New
Delhi. 4th edition 2010

REFERENCES
Problems in Operations Research (Principles and Solutions), Prem Kumar Gupta, D S Hira- S.Chand &
Company LTD, New Delhi 4th edition 2009
“PERT & CPM”, L. S. Srinath, Affiliated East-West Press, New Delhi 3 rd edition 2001
NPTEL Resource: http://nptel.ac.in/courses/112106134/1
Course Learning Objectives
1. Understand the use of Operations Research for solving
problems by selecting appropriate modeling technique.
Use of linear programming for formulating and solving
problems.
2. Obtain the idea of using transportation and assignment
techniques in Real life problem solving.
3. Make use of sequencing, replacement and simulation
techniques for solving real life problems.
4. Applying queuing theory in solving real life problems
related to queues in a service facility and game theory
for working out strategies in conflict situations.
5. Demonstrate the use of network analysis techniques in
planning and scheduling of complex projects
08-Apr-20 10:05 AM 2
Unit V- NETWORK ANALYSIS
PROJECT MANAGEMENT USING NETWORK ANALYSIS:
CPM: Network construction, determining critical path,
floats, scheduling by network, project duration
PERT- Estimation of project duration, variance under
probabilistic models, Crashing of networks.
12 Hours

08-Apr-20 10:05 AM 3
Crashing of CPM networks
 Project crashing is the method for shortening the project
duration by reducing the time of one or more critical activities
to less than their normal time.
 Crashing is achieved by devoting more resources. Thus the cost
associated with the project is increased.
Objectives:
i. To reduce project duration
ii. While minimizing cost of crashing.

Total Cost = Direct Cost + Indirect Cost


= Direct Cost + (Fixed cost + Variable cost)

08-Apr-20 10:05 AM 4
Crashing of CPM networks
TIME – COST TRADE OFF
 In Crashing, if cost increases then time decreases.
 Time and cost are thus inversely related.

CONCEPT OF COST SLOPE

Nt: Normal time


Nc: Crashing time
Ct: Cost of activity in Nt.
Cc: Cost of activity in Nc.
Cost Slope= Cc − Nc = ΔC
Nt - Ct ΔT

08-Apr-20 10:05 AM 5
Crashing of CPM networks
Q 1. Following table shows the details of a project. The contract
includes a penalty of Rs. 200 per day in excess of 19 days and
overhead cost is Rs. 400 per day.
i) Draw network and determine critical path.
ii) Find the project completion cost in normal time.
iii) Crash the activities and determine optimum project duration and cost
associated with it.
iv) Determine the cost of completing the project in th eminimum time and
cost associated with it.
Activity Normal time Crash time Normal cost Crash cost Cost slope
1-2 6 4 600 1000 200
1-3 2 2 600 1400 400
2-4 5 3 500 1500 500
2-5 3 1 450 650 100
3-4 6 4 900 2000 550
4-6 8 4 800 3000 550
5-6 4 2 400 1000 300
6-7 3 2 450 800 350
08-Apr-20 10:05 AM 6
Network Diagram
3(1)
2 5
Q 1. 100

2(2) 6(4) 8(4) 3(2)


1 3 4 6 7
400 550 550 350

1-2-5-6-7  16 days
1-2-4-6-7  22 days  Critical path
1-3-4-6-7  19 days

08-Apr-20 10:05 AM 7
Crashing of CPM Network
3(1)
2 5
Q 1. 100

2(2) 6(4) 8(4) 3(2)


1 3 4 6 7
400 550 550 350
Crash Critical path Activities Cost slope Days
I 1-2-4-6-7(22) 1-2 200 1

08-Apr-20 10:05 AM 8
Crashing of CPM Network
3(1)
2 5
Q 1. 100

2(2) 6(4) 8(4) 3(2)


1 3 4 6 7
400 550 550 350

Crash Critical path Activities Cost slope Days


I 1-2-4-6-7(22) 1-2 200 1
II 1-2-4-6-7(21) 1-2 200 1

08-Apr-20 10:05 AM 9
Crashing of CPM Network
3(1)
2 5
Q 1. 100

2(2) 6(4) 8(4) 2 3(2)


1 3 4 6 7
400 550 550 350
Crash Critical path Activities Cost slope Days
I 1-2-4-6-7(22) 1-2 200 1
II 1-2-4-6-7(21) 1-2 200 1
III 1-2-4-6-7(20) 6-7 350 1

08-Apr-20 10:05 AM 10
Crashing of CPM Network
3(1)
2 5
Q 1. 100

2(2) 6(4) 8(4) 2 3 (2)


1 3 4 6 7
400 550 550 350

Crash Critical path Activities Cost slope Days


I 1-2-4-6-7(22) 1-2 200 1
II 1-2-4-6-7(21) 1-2 200 1
III 1-2-4-6-7(20) 6-7 350 1
IV 1-2-4-6-7(19) 2-4 500 1

08-Apr-20 10:05 AM 11
Crashing of CPM Network
3(1)
2 5
Q 1. 100

2(2) 6(4) 7 8(4) 2 3 (2)


1 3 4 6 7
400 550 550 350

Crash Critical path Activities Cost slope Days


I 1-2-4-6-7(22) 1-2 200 1
II 1-2-4-6-7(21) 1-2 200 1
III 1-2-4-6-7(20) 6-7 350 1
IV 1-2-4-6-7(19) 2-4 500 1
1-2-4-6-7(18) Choice 1: 2-4 & 3-4 500+550
V 1
1-3-4-6-7(18) Choice 2: 4-6 550
12
Crashing of CPM Network
3(1)
2 5
Q 1. 100

2(2) 6(4) 4,5,6,7,8(4) 2 3 (2)


1 3 4 6 7
400 550 550 350
Crash Critical path Activities Cost slope Days
I 1-2-4-6-7(22) 1-2 200 1

II 1-2-4-6-7(21) 1-2 200 1

III 1-2-4-6-7(20) 6-7 350 1

IV 1-2-4-6-7(19) 2-4 500 1

1-2-4-6-7(18) Choice 1: 2-4 & 3-4 500+550


V 1
1-3-4-6-7(18) Choice 2: 4-6 550
VI, VII, 1-2-4-6-7(18) Choice 1: 2-4 & 3-4 500+550
3
VIII 1-3-4-6-7(18) Choice 2: 4-6 550
13
Crashing of CPM Network
3(1)
2 5
Q 1. 100

2(2) 5 6(4) 4,5,6,7,8(4) 2 3 (2)


1 3 4 6 7
400 550 550 350
Crash Critical path Activities Cost slope Days
I 1-2-4-6-7(22) 1-2 200 1
II 1-2-4-6-7(21) 1-2 200 1
III 1-2-4-6-7(20) 6-7 350 1
IV 1-2-4-6-7(19) 2-4 500 1
V, VI, VII,
1-2-4-6-7(18) Choice 1: 2-4 & 3-4 500+550
VIII 4
1-3-4-6-7(18) Choice 2: 4-6 550

1-2-4-6-7(14)
IX 2-4 & 3-4 500+550 1
1-3-4-6-7(14)
14
Crashing of CPM Network
3(1)
2 5
Q 1. 100

2(2) 5 6(4) 4,5,6,7,8(4) 2 3 (2)


1 3 4 6 7
400 550 550 350

Crash Critical path Activities Cost slope Days


I 1-2-4-6-7(22) 1-2 200 1
II 1-2-4-6-7(21) 1-2 200 1
III 1-2-4-6-7(20) 6-7 350 1
IV 1-2-4-6-7(19) 2-4 500 1
V, VI, VII, VIII 1-2-4-6-7(18) Choice 1: 2-4 & 3-4 500+550
4
1-3-4-6-7(18) Choice 2: 4-6 550
1-2-4-6-7(14)
IX 2-4 & 3-4 500+550 1
1-3-4-6-7(14)

1-2-5-6-7(13) Further CRASHING IS NOT POSSIBLE as one of the common


X 1-2-4-6-7(13) CRITICAL PATHS has reached its
1-3-4-6-7(13) LOWEST POSSIBLE PROJECT COMPLETION TIME15
TOTAL COST after Crashing
3(1)
2 5
Q 1. 100

2(2) 5 6(4) 4,5,6,7,8(4) 2 3 (2)


1 3 4 6 7
400 550 550 350
DIRECT COST INDIRECT COST
TOTAL
CRASH ACTIVITY DAY NORMAL TOTAL CRASH
OVERHEAD PENALTY COST
COST COST
22 4700 8800 600 14100
I 1-2 21 4700 200 8400 400 13700
II 1-2 20 4700 400 8000 200 13300
III 6-7 19 4700 750 7600 0 13050
IV 2-4 18 4700 1250 7200 0 13150
V 4-6 17 4700 1800 6800 0 13300
VI 4-7 16 4700 2350 6400 0 13450
VII 4-8 15 4700 2900 6000 0 13600
VIII 4-9 14 4700 3450 5600 0 13750
IX 2-4, 3-4 13 4700 4500 5200 0 16
14400
CPM
Q2

08-Apr-20 10:05 AM 17
PERT Network
(Program Evaluation and Review Technique)
to- tm- tp
1-1-1
2 5

2-2-8 2-5-8
1 4 6

08-Apr-20 10:05 AM 18
PERT Network
(Program Evaluation and Review Technique)
Q 2. The time(in weeks) estimates of activities of PERT network given in table. Draw the
network and find,
i) Expected project duration, standard deviation and variance
ii) What is the probability that the project will be completed,
i) At least four weeks earlier than expected time?
ii) No more than 4 weeks later than expected time?
iii) If the project due date is 19 weeks, what is the chance of not meeting the due date?
iv) What is the probability of completing on schedule if the scheduled completion time is 20
weeks?
v) What should be the scheduled completion time for the probability of completion to be
90% ?
Time duration (weeks)
Activity-nodes (i-j)
to tm tp
1-2 1 1 7
1-3 1 4 7
1-4 2 2 8
2-5 1 1 1
3-5 2 5 14
4-6 2 5 8
08-Apr-20 10:05 AM 5-6 3 6 15 19
PERT Network diagram
to- tm- tp
Q 2. 2
1-1-1
5

2-2-8 2-5-8
1 4 6

𝑡0 + 4𝑡𝑚 + 𝑡𝑝
Expected duration of the activity, te =
6
𝑡𝑝 − 𝑡0 2
Variance of the activity, σ2 =
6
𝑡𝑝 − 𝑡0
Standard deviation of the activity, σ= 6

08-Apr-20 10:05 AM 20
PERT Network- Time estimates
to- tm- tp
Q 2. 2
1-1-1
5
1

2-2-8 2-5-8
1 4 6
3 5

1-2-5-6  10 weeks ; 1-3-5-6  17 weeks ; 1-4-6  8 weeks


Time duration (weeks) Expected duration Variance, v
Activity
to tm tp te = (to+ 4tm +tp)/6 σ2 = [(tp-to)/6]2
1-2 1 1 7 2 1
1-3 1 4 7 4 1
1-4 2 2 8 3 1
2-5 1 1 1 1 0
3-5 2 5 14 6 4
4-6 2 5 8 5 1
5-6 3 6 15 7 4
PERT Network- Time estimates
to- tm- tp
Q 2. 2
1-1-1
5
1

2-2-8 2-5-8
1 4 6
3 5

1-2-5-6  10 weeks ; 1-3-5-6  17 weeks ; 1-4-6  8 weeks


i) Variance and Standard deviation of critical path 1-3-5-6
Variance of the project length is sum of variance of activities in the critical path
Hence, v = 1+4+4 = 9
And Standard deviation, σ = 3 weeks
Probabilities of Project Completion
Standard Normal Distribution

Normal
Distribution
table

Z-score = (x − μ)/σ
z is the "z-score" (Standard Score)
x is the value to be standardized
μ ('mu") is the mean
σ ("sigma") is the standard deviation
Probabilities of Project Completion
1-1-1
2 5 Normal
1 Distribution
Q 2. table

3 σ = 3 weeks
te = 17 weeks

2-2-8 2-5-8
1 4 6
3 5
ii). Probability that the project will be completed,
at least 4 weeks earlier than expected time?
Expected time (te), μ = 17 weeks
Scheduled time, x = 17 - 4 = 13 weeks
Standard normal deviate , Z = (x − μ)/σ = (13 – 17)/3 = -1.33
From Standard Normal Probability Table,
for Z = -1.33, probability is 0.0918
Hence, probability of completing the project at least 4 weeks before the
expected time, i.e., within 13 weeks is 9.18%
Probabilities of Project Completion
1-1-1
2 5 Normal
1 Distribution
Q 2. table

3 σ = 3 weeks
te = 17 weeks

2-2-8 2-5-8
1 4 6
3 5
Z= -1.33

9.18 %

6 13 17 36
Probabilities of Project Completion
1-1-1
2 5 Normal
1 Distribution
Q 2. table

3 σ = 3 weeks
te = 17 weeks

2-2-8 2-5-8
1 4 6
3 5
ii). Probability that the project will be completed,
no more than 4 weeks later than expected time?
Expected time (te), μ = 17 weeks
Scheduled time, x = 17 + 4 = 21 weeks
Standard normal deviate , Z = (x − μ)/σ = (21 – 17)/3 = +1.33
From Standard Normal Probability Table,
for Z = +1.33, probability is 0.9082
Hence, probability of completing the project no more 4 weeks later than
expected time, i.e., within 21 weeks is 90.82 %
Probabilities of Project Completion
1-1-1
2 5 Normal
1 Distribution
table

3 σ = 3 weeks
te = 17 weeks

2-2-8 2-5-8
1 4 6
3 5
Z= 1.33

90.82 %

6 17 21 36
Probabilities of Project Completion
1-1-1
2 5 Normal
1 Distribution
Q 2. table

3 σ = 3 weeks
te = 17 weeks

2-2-8 2-5-8
1 4 6
3 5
iii). Probability of not meeting the scheduled date if the due date is 19 weeks?
Expected time (te), μ = 17 weeks
Scheduled time, x = 19 weeks
Standard normal deviate , Z = (x − μ) / σ = (19 – 17)/3 = 0.667
From Standard Normal Probability Table,
for Z = 0.667, probability is 0.7486
Hence, probability of completing the project within 19 weeks is 74.86%
And Probability of Not meeting the due date is 25.14 %
Probabilities of Project Completion
1-1-1
2 5 Normal
1 Distribution
table

3 σ = 3 weeks
te = 17 weeks

2-2-8 2-5-8
1 4 6
3 5
Z= 0.667

25.14%
84.13 %

6 1 7 19 36
Probabilities of Project Completion
1-1-1
2 5 Normal
1 Distribution
Q 2. table

3 σ = 3 weeks
te = 17 weeks

2-2-8 2-5-8
1 4 6
3 5
iv). Probability of meeting the scheduled date if the due date is 20 weeks?
Expected time (te), μ = 17 weeks
Scheduled time, x = 20 weeks
Standard normal deviate , Z = (x − μ) / σ = (20 – 17)/3 = 1
From Standard Normal Probability Table,
for Z = 1, probability is 0.8413
Hence, probability of completing the project within 20 weeks is 84.13%
Probabilities of Project Completion
1-1-1
2 5 Normal
1 Distribution
table

3 σ = 3 weeks
te = 17 weeks

2-2-8 2-5-8
1 4 6
3 5
Z= 1

84.13 %

6 17 20 36
Probabilities of Project Completion
1-1-1
2 5 Normal
1
Q 2. Distribution
table

3 σ = 3 weeks
te = 17 weeks

2-2-8 2-5-8
1 4 6
3 5
v). What should be the scheduled completion time for the probability of
completion to be 90% ?
Expected time (te), μ = 17 weeks
Scheduled time, x = t weeks
Standard normal deviate , Z = (x − μ) / σ = ( t – 17)/3
From Standard Normal Probability Table,
for probability 0.90, the vale of Z = 1.28,
1.28 = ( t – 17)/3  t = 20.84 weeks
Hence,
the scheduled completion time of the project should be 20.84 weeks
Probabilities of Project Completion
1-1-1
2 5
1

3 σ = 3 weeks
te = 17 weeks

2-2-8 2-5-8
1 4 6
3 5
Z= 1.28

90 %
0.90 ~ 0.8997

6 17 36
20.84 weeks Normal
Distribution
table
Standard Normal Distribution Table

08-Apr-20 10:05 AM 34

You might also like