The Warren Buffett Spreadsheet v16 - Preview

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The Warren Buffett Spreadsheet

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Manual input of data next to yellow colored cells
Date of analysis 4/8/2020

Datainput from Gurufocus.com
Stock ticker MIDD
Stock price (USD) 57.93
Currency conversion rate (For NON US stocks) 1.00
57.93
Stock price after currency conversion
Enterprise value (Mill) (From Gurufocus.com) 5060
Enterprise value after currency conversion 5060
F-Score (From Gurufocus.com) 6
Z-score (From Gurufocus.com) 2.40
M-Score (From Gurufocus.com) -2.41
Required Margin of safety % 30%
Desired Discount Rate % 11%
20 AA Corporate bond Rate % 2.73%
Dicount Rate 10y fed note % 0.72%
Scores (max 100%) Score chart

Valuation ratios 73%
Checklist ratios
Efficiency 100%
Efficiency growth 0%
Earnings stability
Financial strenght 54%
GrowthGrowth
rates rates 100%
Earnings stability 83%
Financial
Checklist strenght
ratios 67%
Efficiency growth
Efficiency
Valuation ratios
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%100%
Valuation inputs
P/E 10y median Change?
20.0 20.0
3 year average free cash flow
303
5 year average free cash flow Change?
281
10y average free cash flow

209
Growth rates. Median
Free cash flow
10.0 % 10.0 %
EPS Change?
15.0 % 15%
Book value growth rate Change?
10.0 % 10%
Future Expected ROE Change?
15.0 % 15%
A ct ual margin of s afe t y vs require d margin of

s afe ty
30% Required Margin of

safety %
Margin of safety
53%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Past 10 years valuation 1 2

P/E 21.3 21.3
P/B 3.7 3.7
P/S 2.2 2.1
P/Operating cash flow 15.8 17.9
Past 10 years data 1 2

Revenue / sales (mill) 719 856
Operating Income (mill) 123 149
Net Income (mill) 73 95
Earnings Per Share 1.32 1.72
Dividend per share 0.00 0.00
Shares outstanding (mill) 55 56
Book Value Per Share 7.7 8.5
Operating Cash Flow (mill) 98 130
Free Cash Flow (mill) 95 123
Interest Coverage 14.3 17.52
Current Ratio 1.43 0.67
Debt/Equity 0.49 —
Long term debt 207 0

Total equity 422 476
Sales/revenue per share 13.1 15.3
Operating income per share 2.2 2.7
Operating cash flow per share 1.8 2.3
Free cash flow per share 1.7 2.2
Capex 3 8
FCF margin 0.77 0.83
STDV 0.09
Average FCF margin 0.66
FCF coefficient variation 14%
10y avg EPS 3.9
10y avg FCF per share 3.9
10y avg free cash flow 220

10y avg capex 3

5y avg capex 43
3yavg capex 45
Financial strength 1 2
Y's to pay long term debt with net income 2.8 0.0
Y's pay long term debt with free cash flow 2.2 0.0
Debt/Equity 0.5 —
Current ratio 1.4 0.7
Interest coverage 14.3 17.5
Efficiency 1 2
FCF/Sales 13% 14%
CROIC 15% 26%
ROTC 12% 14%
ROE 19% 20%
Gross margin 40% 40%
Operating margin 17% 17%
Net margin 10% 11%
Return on retained earnings
Checklist ratios past 10 years 1 2

Dividend safety
Net income of cash flow from operation 74% 73%
Dividend payout ratio 0% 0%
Capex of operating cash flow 3% 6%
5 year cumulative capex of 5y cumulative net inc 13%
Earnings and growth stability past 10 years 1 2

Earnings Per Share USD 1.32 1.72
Number of years of new high EPS 1
Number of years with positive EPS 1 1
Revenue USD Mil 719 856
Number of years new high revenue/sales 1
Free Cash Flow USD Mil 95 123
Number of years of new high free cash flow
Number of years with positive FCF 1 1
Dividends USD 0.0 0.0
Number of years of new high dividend 1
Number of years with dividend payment 0 0
Operating Income USD Mil 123 149
Number of years new high operating income 1
Number of years with positive operating income 1 1
Operating Cash Flow USD Mil 98 130
Number of years of new operating cash flow 1
Number of years with positive operating cash flow 1 1
Growth rates %. Different time periods 1y-8y 2y-9y

Free cash flow (FCF) 14.8 % 15.0 %
Sales/Revenue 18.3 % 18.0 %
EPS (Earnings per share) 21.8 % 18.7 %
Net income 22.3 % 18.8 %
Book Value per share 17.4 % 18.7 %
Operating income 21.3 % 17.7 %
Operating cash flow 17.6 % 16.1 %

FCF/Sales -3.0 % -2.5 %
CROIC -4.9 % -13.1 %
ROTC 1.2 % -3.6 %
ROE 2.6 % 0.4 %
Gross margin -0.3 % -1.2 %
Operating margin 2.5 % -0.3 %
Net Margin 3.3 % 0.7 %
Historical valua
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
20
15
10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Earnings grow
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Earnings grow
Revenue / sales (mill) Operating Income (mill)
3500 600
2959 2959
3000 2723 500 476
457
2500 2268 2336
400
1827 331
2000 294
1637 300
1429 244
1500
1038 188
856 200 149
1000 719 123
500 100
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Year number Year number
Earnings Per Share Dividend per share

7.00 1.00
6.3 6.3
5.7 0.90
6.00
5.3 0.80
5.0
5.00 0.70
4.00 0.60
3.4 3.4
0.50
3.00 2.7
2.2 0.40
2.00 1.7 0.30
7.00 1.00
6.3 6.3
5.7 0.90
6.00
5.3 0.80
5.0
5.00 0.70
4.00 0.60
3.4 3.4
0.50
3.00 2.7
2.2 0.40
2.00 1.7 0.30
1.3
0.20
1.00
0.10
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Operating Cash Flow (mill) Free Cash Flow (mill)

400 369 377 377 350
350 300
294 304 269
300 250
250 221 227
250
250 234
200
200
146 150 123 121 127
150 130 128
98 95
100
100
50 50
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Sales/revenue per share Operating income per share

60 10
52.8 52.8
9 8.4
50 48.6 8.0
8
39.8 41.0 7
40 5.8
32.1 6 5.2
30 28.7 5
25.5 4.4
18.9 4 3.4
20 15.3 3 2.7
13.1 2.2
10 2
1
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Efficiency
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
FCF/Sales CROIC
16% 30%
14%
14% 26%
14% 13%
12% 12% 25%
12% 12%
12% 11% 11% 11%
20%
10% 9%
15% 15%
8% 15% 14% 13%
12%
10% 11%
6%
10%
4%
5%
2%
0% 0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
ROE Operating margin

25% 23% 23% 21%
20%
21% 20%
20% 21% 21% 21%
20% 20% 20%
20% 19%
18%
19%
15% 18% 18%
18%
18%
17%
10% 17% 17%
17%
5% 16%
0% 15%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Financial stren
Y's to pay long term debt with net inc. Y's pay long term debt with F
6 5.6 6
5.3
5.0
5 5
4.1 4.0
4 3.7 4
3.4 3.4
3.1
2.8 2.9 2.7 2.8
3 3 2.5
2.1 2.2 2.1
2 2
1 1
0.0 0.0
5 5
4.1 4.0
4 3.7 4
3.4 3.4
3.1
2.8 2.9 2.7 2.8
3 3 2.5
2.1 2.2 2.1
2 2
1 1
0.0 0.0
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Current ratio Interest coverage

2.5 20
18 17.52
1.97 2.04 2.04
2 1.87 1.9 16 14.3
1.7 1.75
1.66 14
1.56
1.5 1.43 12
10
1 8
0.67 6
0.5 4
2
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Checklist ratios &

Dividend safety Net inc of cash flow from opera
12 120%
105%
95% 97% 98%
10 100%
82%
8 80% 74% 73% 77%
6 60%
4 40%
2 20%
0 0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Capex of operating cash flow Shares outstanding (mill)

20% 58
18% 57 57 57 57
18%
57
16%
14% 57
14% 12% 12%
12% 11% 56 56
56
10% 9% 9%
8% 56
6% 6% 6% 55 55
6% 55
4% 3%
55
2%
0% 54
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
55
4% 3%
55
2%
0% 54
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Intrinsic Valuation methods

3 Stage DCF valuation
5y average free cash flow: 281
Years: 1-3 4-7

Growth Rate: 10% 8%
Terminal Growth Rate: 2% Discount Rate:
Shares Outstanding: 56 MOS:
Year Flows Growth

1 309 10%
2 340 10%
3 374 10%
4 404 8%
5 436 8%
6 471 8%
7 508 8%
8 541 6%
9 576 6%
10 612 6%
Terminal Year 625

PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows: 2524
Terminal Value: 4385
Total PV of Cash Flows: 6909
Number of Shares: 56
Intrinsic Value (IV): 123
Katsenelsons Absolute P/E Valuation

No Growth P/E 7
EPS Growth Rate % 15.0 % Points
Dividend Yield % 0.00% Points
Basic P/E 16.9
Business Risk 0.90 Adjustment
Financial Risk 1 Adjustment
Earnings stability 0.90 Adjustment
5y average EPS 5.72
Current Stock Price 57.93
Fair Value P/E 20.4
Intrinsic Value 117
Benjamin Grahams Growth Formula
Normalized EPS Using The ROE Method:
10y median ROE 15.0 %
Shareholders Equity (TTM) 1940
Normalized Net Income 291
Shares Outstanding 56
Normalized EPS 5.20
Normalized EPS Using The Net Margin Method:
10 Year Average Net Profit Margin 11.5 %
Revenue (TTM) 2959
Normalized EPS 6.09
Average Normalized EPS 5.64
20y AA Corp Bond Rate 2.73
Estimated Future EPS Growth Rate 15.00
Intrinsic Value 217
Classic Value investors valuation Year

Current Stock Price 57.93 1
5 year average EPS 5.72 2
Dividend pay out ratio 0% 3
EPS growth rate (1st five years) 15.0 % 4
EPS Growth Rate (2nd Five Years) 12.0 % 5
Discount Rate 11% 6
P/E Ratio in 10 Years ( 10y median p/e ratio) 20.0 7
8
9
10
Value of Future Dividends Today 0.00 Year

Value of Future Sales Price Today 142.82 10
Intrinsic Value Of The Stock 143
P/E valuation
5y average EPS 5.72
Average historical P/E 20.0
EPS growth rate 15%
Growth decline rate 2%
Discount rate 11%
Year EPS*Growth rate

1 6.58
2 7.54
3 8.63
4 9.85
5 11.21
6 12.73
7 14.43
8 16.30
9 18.39
10 20.68
Value in 10 years 414
Intrinsic Value 146
Book value growth + Dividend valuation

Annual Dividend 0.00
Years Of Future Value Calculation 10
Discount Rate - 10 yr. Fed Note 0.72%
Future Book Value 88
Book Value Growth Rate 10.0 %
Book value growth adjusted for share buybacks 9.8 %
Current Year Book Value 34.65
Intrinsic Value 82
Projected Annual Compounding Return

10y Median Return On Equity 15.0 %
Percentage Of Earnings Retained 100%
Estimated Book Value Growth 10.0 %
Number Of Years 10
Present Book Value 34.65
Future Book Value -90
Converting Percentage To Decimal 0.150
Future Per Share Earnings 13.5
Terminal value 270
Intrinsic Value 95
Keynumbers used in watchlist Ticker Date

MIDD 4/8/2020
Stock score system: Growth rates Earnings stability

1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 0
1 0
1
1
1
1
1
Market cap (mill) 3244 Valuation methods
3 stage DCF
Intrinsic value 123 Katsenelsons absolute p/e
Buyprice 86 B.Graham Formula
Margin of safety 53% Classic Value Valuation
Total quality score 75% P/E Valuation
Company Quality Very good Book Value I.V
Buy/hold/sell? Buy Projected compounding

Median
Share buybacks Data

10y -0.2 % Valuation ratios
5y 0.4 % P/E
3y 0.6 % P/E Yield
1y 0.0 % P/B
P/S
P/operating cash flow
Growth rates Median Shiller P/E
FCF (Free cash flow) 16% P/Operating income
Sales/revenue 18% Operating income/p yield
EPS (Earnings per share) 19% EV/Operating income
Book value growth 17% Operating income/EV yield
Operating income 19% EV/FCF
Operating cash flow 18% FCF/Enterprise yield
Dividend 10y growth P/FCF
FCF/price yield
Dividend yield
Earnings stability 10y Data Shareholders Yield
Years of EPS Growth 9 Peter Lynch PEG ratio
Y's of positive EPS 11 Warren Buffets's ratio
Y's of revenue growth 10
Y's of FCF Growth 7 Efficiency
Y's of positive FCF 11 FCF/Sales
Y's of dividend growth 0 CROIC
Y's of dividend paid 0 ROTC
Y's of oper. inc. growth 9 ROE
Y's of pos.operating inc. 11 Gross margin
9
Y's of O.C.F growth Operating margin
Y's of positive O.C.F 11 Net margin
FCF covariation 14% Return on retained earnings
Financial strength
Efficiency growth Median Y's to pay debt with net.Inc
FCF/Sales -2.1 % Y's to pay debt with FCF
CROIC -5.2 % Debt/Equity
ROTC -3.2 % Current ratio
ROE 0.3 % Interest coverage
Gross Margin -0.6 % F-Score
Operating margin 0.6 % Z-Score
Net margin 1.1 % M-Score
Checklist ratios
Dividend safety
Net Inc of cash from operation
Dividend payout ratio
Capex of operating cash flow
Cum. capex of Cum. net inc
3 4 5 6
19.8 31.5 29.4 31.9
3.7 5.9 5.9 5.5
2.3 3.3 3.6 3.6
18.6 38.0 24.8 25.9
3 4 5 6
1038 1429 1637 1827
188 244 294 331
121 154 193 192
2.20 2.74 3.40 3.36
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
55 56 57 57
11.5 13.6 16.8 19.8
128 146 234 250
121 127 221 227
— — — —
1.70 1.75 1.87 1.56
0.40 0.68 0.58 0.63
253 519 556 711

634 763 959 1128
18.9 25.5 28.7 32.1
3.4 4.4 5.2 5.8
2.3 2.6 4.1 4.4
2.2 2.3 3.9 4.0
8 20 13 22
0.64 0.52 0.75 0.69
3 4 5 6
2.1 3.4 2.9 3.7
2.1 4.1 2.5 3.1
0.4 0.7 0.6 0.6
1.7 1.8 1.9 1.6
— — — —
3 4 5 6
12% 9% 14% 12%
14% 10% 15% 12%
14% 13% 13% 11%
21% 21% 21% 18%
39% 39% 39% 39%
18% 17% 18% 18%
12% 11% 12% 11%
3 4 5 6
95% 105% 82% 77%

0% 0% 0% 0%
6% 14% 6% 9%
3 4 5 6
2.20 2.74 3.40 3.36
2 3 4
1 1 1 1
1038 1429 1637 1827
2 3 4 5
121 127 221 227
1 2 3
1 1 1 1
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2 3 4 5
0 0 0 0
188 244 294 331
2 3 4 5
1 1 1 1
128 146 234 250
2 3 4
1 1 1 1
3y-10y 1y-6y 2y-7y 3y-8y

15.5 % 19.0 % 16.9 % 15.6 %
16.1 % 20.5 % 21.5 % 17.6 %
16.3 % 20.5 % 23.7 % 19.0 %
16.5 % 21.3 % 24.5 % 19.8 %
16.2 % 20.9 % 22.5 % 15.4 %
15.3 % 21.9 % 25.1 % 20.4 %
16.7 % 20.6 % 17.7 % 18.9 %
3y-10y 1y-6y 2y-7y 3y-8y

-0.6 % -1.2 % -3.8 % -1.7 %
-5.6 % -4.0 % -13.0 % -4.8 %
-5.3 % -2.8 % 0.9 % -0.4 %
-0.9 % -1.5 % 2.8 % 1.8 %
-0.6 % -0.6 % -0.3 % 0.2 %
-0.7 % 1.2 % 3.0 % 2.4 %
0.3 % 0.7 % 2.4 % 1.8 %
Historical valuation
P/E
P/B
P/S
P/Operating cash flow
P/E
P/B
P/S
6 7 8 9 10 11
Earnings growth
Sales/revenue per share

Operating cash flow per share
Operating income per share
Earnings Per Share
Free cash flow per share
Book Value Per Share
Dividend per share
6 7 8 9 10 11
Earnings growth
Operating Income (mill) Net Income (mill)
400
510 510 352 352
476 350 317
457 465 298
300 284
331 250
294 193 192
200
244 154
188 150 121
149 95
100 73
50
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Dividend per share Book Value Per Share

40
34.7
35 33.0
30 28.3
25 23.4 23.5
19.8
20 16.8
15 13.6
11.5
8.5
40
34.7
35 33.0
30 28.3
25 23.4 23.5
19.8
20 16.8
15 13.6
11.5
10 7.7 8.5
5
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Free Cash Flow (mill) Free cash flow per share

327 331 331 7
5.8 5.9 5.9
269 6
250
227 5 4.7
221 4.4
3.9 4.0
4
123 121 127 3

2.2 2.2 2.3
2 1.7
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Operating income per share Operating cash flow per share

8
9.1 9.1
8.4 8.3 7 6.6 6.7 6.7
8.0
6 5.3
5.2
5.8 5 4.4
5.2 4.1
4.4 4
3.4 3 2.6
2.7 2.3 2.3
2 1.8
1
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Efficiency
FCF/Sales
CROIC
ROTC
ROE
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
FCF/Sales
CROIC
ROTC
ROE
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
CROIC ROTC
16%
14%
26% 14% 14% 14%
14% 13% 13%
12%
12% 11% 11%
10% 10% 10%
14% 15%
12% 13% 8%
10% 11% 10% 9% 9% 6%
4%
2%
0%
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Operating margin Net margin

14%
20% 13% 13%
20% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12%
12% 11% 11%
10% 11%
10%
18% 18% 18% 8%

17% 17% 17% 6%
17% 17%
4%
2%
0%
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Financial strength
Y's pay long term debt with FCF Debt/Equity
5.5 5.6 1.2 1.13
5.4
1 0.96 0.96
4.1 4.0
0.8 0.75
0.68
3.1 0.63
2.8 0.58 0.57
2.5 0.6
0.49
2.1 0.4
0.4
0.2
0.0
1 0.96 0.96
4.1 4.0
0.8 0.75
0.68
3.1 0.63
2.8 0.58 0.57
2.5 0.6 0.49
2.1 0.4
0.4
0.2
0.0
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Interest coverage Long term debt

2000 1863
17.52 1788 1776
1800
1600
1400
1200
1006
1000
711 760
800
600 519 556
400 253
207
200
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Checklist ratios & Misc

Net inc of cash flow from operation Dividend payout ratio
100%
105%
97% 98% 90%
95% 93% 93%
86% 80%
82%
73% 77% 70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0%
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Shares outstanding (mill) FCF vs EPS

400
57 57 57 57 350 Net Income (mill)
300
Free Cash Flow (mill)
56 56 56 56 56 250
200
150
55
100
50
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Year number
100
50
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Year number
ods
8-10
6%
11%
30%
Value
278
276
273
266
259
252
245
235
225
216
P/E Exp EPS Grwth Rate Dividend Yield Add'l P/E Points
7.00 0% 0.0% 0.0
7.65 1% 0.1% 0.5
8.30 2% 0.5% 0.5
9.8 8.95 3% 1.0% 1.0
0.0 9.60 4% 1.5% 1.5
10.25 5% 2.0% 2.0
10.90 6% 2.5% 2.5
1.10 11.55 7% 3.0% 3.0
12.20 8% ∆0.65 3.5% 3.5
1.00 12.85 9% 4.0% 4.0
1.10 13.50 10 % 4.5% 4.5
14.15 11 % 5.0% 5.0
14.80 12 % 5.5% 5.5
15.45 13 % 6.0% 6.0
16.10 14 % 6.5% 6.5
16.75 15 % 10.0% 10.0
17.40 16 %
17.90 17 %
18.40 18 %
18.90 19 %
19.40 20 %
19.90 21 % ∆0.50
20.40 22 %
20.90 23 %
21.40 24 %
15.45 13 % 6.0% 6.0
16.10 14 % 6.5% 6.5
16.75 15 % 10.0% 10.0
17.40 16 %
17.90 17 %
18.40 18 %
18.90 19 %
19.40 20 %
19.90 21 % ∆0.50
20.40 22 %
20.90 23 %
21.40 24 %
21.90 25 %
Projected EPS Pay out ratio Dividends Disc. Divid.

6.6 0% 0.0 0.00
7.6 0% 0.0 0.00
8.7 0% 0.0 0.00
10.0 0% 0.0 0.00
11.5 0% 0.0 0.00
12.9 0% 0.0 0.00
14.4 0% 0.0 0.00
16.2 0% 0.0 0.00
18.1 0% 0.0 0.00
20.3 0% 0.0 0.00
Sum 0.00
Projected EPS PE ratio in 10 years Terminal value Disc. term. V.
20.3 20.0 405.51 142.82
F-Score Z-score M-score Interest coverage (TTM)
6 2.40 -2.41 —
Financial strength Valuation ratios Efficiency Efficiency growth

0 1 1 0
0 1 1 0
0 1 1 0
1 1 1 0
1 1 1 0
0 1 1 0
1 1 1 0
0 1 1 0
1 0
1 0
1 1
0 1
1 1
0
0
Intrinsic value Buyprice Margin of safety
123 86 53%
117 82 50%
217 152 73%
143 100 59%
146 102 60%
82 57 29%
95 66 39%
123 86 53%
TTM 10y avg 5y avg

9.2 23.3 20.1
10.9 % 6.8 % 8.8 %
1.7 4.4 4.0
1.1 2.6 2.4
8.6 21.4 18.9
14.7
6.4
15.7 %
9.9
10.1 %
15.3
6.5 %
9.8
10.2 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
2.06
7.12
TTM 10y avg 5y avg

11% 12% 12%
9% 13% 11%
10% 12% 12%
20% 20% 21%
37% 39% 38%
17% 18% 19%
12% 12% 12%

11.6 %
TTM 10y avg 5y avg
5.3 3.4 4.1
5.6 3.4 4.2
1.0 0.7 0.8
2.0 1.7 1.8
— 15.9 0
6
2
-2.41
TTM 10y avg 5y avg
93% 89% 90%

0% 0% 0%
12% 10% 12%
12% 13%
7 8 9 10 TTM Visually
29.0 25.3 19.2 18.0 9.2
5.5 5.7 3.6 3.3 1.7
3.3 3.4 2.2 2.1 1.1
28.6 23.8 16.2 17.6 8.5
2268 2336 2723 2959 2959
457 476 465 510 510
284 298 317 352 352
4.98 5.26 5.70 6.33 6.33
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
57 57 56 56 56
23.4 23.5 28.3 33.0 34.7
294 304 369 377 377
269 250 327 331 331
— — — — —
1.66 1.97 1.90 2.04 2.04
0.57 0.75 1.13 0.96 0.96
760 1006 1788 1776 1863

1334 1341 1582 1850 1940
39.8 41.0 48.6 52.8 52.8
8.0 8.4 8.3 9.1 9.1
5.2 5.3 6.6 6.7 6.7
4.7 4.4 5.8 5.9 5.9
25 54 41 47 47
0.59 0.53 0.70 0.65 0.65
7 8 9 10 TTM 10y Average

2.7 3.4 5.6 5.0 5.3 3.4
2.8 4.0 5.5 5.4 5.6 3.4
0.6 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.7
1.7 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.7
— — — — — 15.9

12% 11% 12% 11% 11% 12%
13% 11% 10% 9% 9% 13%
14% 14% 11% 10% 10% 12%
23% 23% 21% 20% 20% 20%
40% 39% 37% 37% 37% 39%
20% 20% 17% 17% 17% 18%
13% 13% 12% 12% 12% 12%
12%
97% 98% 86% 93% 93% 89%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
9% 18% 11% 12% 12% 10%
7 8 9 10 TTM
4.98 5.26 5.70 6.33 6.33
5 6 7 8 9
1 1 1 1 1
2268 2336 2723 2959 2959
6 7 8 9 10
269 250 327 331 331
4 5 6 7
1 1 1 1 1
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
6 7 8 9 10
0 0 0 0 0
457 476 465 510 510
6 7 8 9
1 1 1 1 1
294 304 369 377 377
5 6 7 8 9
1 1 1 1 1
4y-9y 5y-10y Median

20.8 % 8.4 % 15.5 %
13.8 % 12.6 % 17.8 %
15.8 % 13.2 % 18.9 %
15.5 % 12.8 % 19.3 %
15.7 % 14.5 % 16.8 %
13.8 % 11.6 % 19.0 %
20.4 % 10.0 % 17.6 %
4y-9y 5y-10y Median

6.2 % -3.7 % -2.1 %
-0.4 % -8.9 % -5.2 %
-4.3 % -5.8 % -3.2 %
0.3 % -1.4 % 0.3 %
-0.8 % -0.9 % -0.6 %
0.0 % -0.8 % 0.6 %
1.6 % 0.2 % 1.1 %
P/E
P/B
P/S
P/E
P/B
P/S
/revenue per share

ating cash flow per share
ating income per share
ngs Per Share
cash flow per share
Value Per Share
end per share
352 352
317
298
8 9 10 11
re
34.7
33.0
28.3
23.5
re
34.7
33.0
28.3
23.5
8 9 10 11
are
5.8 5.9 5.9
4.4
8 9 10 11
share
6.6 6.7 6.7
5.3
8 9 10 11
FCF/Sales
CROIC
ROTC
ROE
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
FCF/Sales
CROIC
ROTC
ROE
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
14%
11%
10% 10%
8 9 10 11
13%
12% 12% 12%
8 9 10 11
1.13
0.96 0.96
0.75
0.96 0.96
0.75
8 9 10 11
1863
1788 1776
1006
8 9 10 11
tio
0% 0% 0% 0%
8 9 10 11
8 9 10 11
8 9 10 11
Interest coverageDebt/Equity
10y avg (TTM)
Debt/Equity 10y avg
Current ratio
Current
(TTM)ratio
Y's to10y
payavg
debt with net inc (TTM)
15.9 1.0 0.7 2.0 1.7 5.3
Checklist ratios
1
0
1
1
1
0
1
0
1
Y's to pay debt with net inc 10y avg Years to pay debt with FCF
Years
(TTM)
to pay debt with
FCF
FCF
(Free
10ycash
avg flow)
3.4 5.6 3.4 16%
Datainput from Morning
Morningstar valuation ratios

Price/Sales 2.15 2.13 2.3 3.33
P/E 21.26 21.28 19.76 31.54
Price/Cash Flow 15.8 17.88 18.57 37.97
Price/Book 3.67 3.69 3.71 5.87
Morningstar key ratios

Revenue USD Mil 719 856 1038 1,429
Gross Margin % 39.9 40.20 38.8 38.5
Operating Income USD Mil 123 149.00 188 244
Operating Margin % 17.1 17.4 18.1 17.1
Net Income USD Mil 73 95 121 154
Earnings Per Share USD 1.32 1.72 2.2 2.74
Dividends USD — — — —
Payout Ratio % * — — — —
Shares Mil 55 56 55 56
Book Value Per Share * USD 7.67 8.5 11.52 13.62
Operating Cash Flow USD Mil 98 130 128 146
Cap Spending USD Mil -3 -8 -8 -20
Free Cash Flow USD Mil 95 123 121 127
Free Cash Flow Per Share * USD 1.72 1.66 2.16 1.79
Working Capital USD Mil 80 -182 170 234

Morningstar profitability tab
Tax Rate % 36.21 32.02 30.81 31.82
Net Margin % 10.13 11.15 11.63 10.77
Asset Turnover (Average) 0.85 0.85 0.87 0.93
Return on Assets % 8.63 9.45 10.1 10.05
Financial Leverage (Average) 2.05 2.24 1.91 2.17
Return on Equity % 18.99 20.4 20.79 20.68
Return on Invested Capital % 12.46 13.8 13.89 13.27
Interest Coverage 14.3 17.52 — —
Morningstar financial health tab
Current Ratio 1.43 0.67 1.7 1.75
Quick Ratio 0.65 0.35 0.81 0.78
Financial Leverage 2.05 2.24 1.91 2.17
Debt/Equity 0.49 — 0.4 0.68

Sales/revenue EPS (Earnings per share) Book value growth
Operating income
Operating cash
Dividend
flow 10y growth
18% 19% 17% 19% 18%
tainput from Morningstar.com
Current
3.57 3.56 3.33 3.35 2.2 2.08 1.09
29.35 31.91 29.01 25.32 19.2 18.04 9.15
24.82 25.91 28.57 23.8 16.24 17.59 8.54
5.89 5.45 5.5 5.73 3.64 3.32 1.67
TTM
1,637 1,827 2,268 2,336 2,723 2,959 2,959
39.1 38.7 39.7 39.1 36.9 37.3 37.3
294 331 457 476 465 510 510
18 18.1 20.1 20.4 17.1 17.2 17.2
193 192 284 298 317 352 352
3.4 3.36 4.98 5.26 5.7 6.33 6.33
— — — — — — —
— — — — — — —
57 57 57 57 56 56 56
16.82 19.79 23.4 23.53 28.25 33.03 34.65
234 250 294 304 369 377 377
-13 -22 -25 -54 -41 -47 -47
221 227 269 250 327 331 331
3.75 3.78 4.1 4.82 5.42 5.56 —
286 285 323 458 503 616 —

31.15 31.85 32.54 22.27 25.11 23.86 23.86
11.81 10.49 12.53 12.76 11.65 11.9 11.9
0.84 0.76 0.8 0.75 0.69 0.62 0.62
9.95 7.94 10.01 9.53 8.04 7.38 7.38
2.05 2.37 2.31 2.45 2.73 2.57 2.57
20.95 17.63 23.37 22.7 20.96 19.5 19.5
12.82 10.83 14.46 13.59 10.67 9.52 9.52
— — — — — — —
1.87 1.56 1.66 1.97 1.9 2.04 2.04
0.83 0.66 0.81 0.88 0.84 0.91 0.91
2.05 2.37 2.31 2.45 2.73 2.57 2.57
0.58 0.63 0.57 0.75 1.13 0.96 0.96

FCF/Sales (TTM)FCF/sales 10y avg CROIC (TTM) CROIC 10y avg ROTC (TTM) ROTC 10y avg ROE (TTM)
11% 12% 9% 13% 10% 12% 20%
ROE 10y avg Operating margin (TTM)Operating margin 10y avgNet margin (TTM)
20% 17% 18% 12%
Net margin 10y avg Return on retained earnings
Years of EPS Growth Y's of positive EPS
12% 11.6 % 9 11
Y's of revenue growth Y's of FCF Growth Y's of positive FCF Y's of dividend growth
10 7 11 0
Y's of dividend paid Y's of oper. inc. growth Y's of pos.operating inc. Y's of O.C.F growth
0 9 11 9
Y's of positive O.C.F FCF covariation Dividend safety (TTM)
11 14%
Dividend safety 10y avg Net inc of cash flow from operation (TTM)
93%
Net inc of cash flow from operation 10y Dividend
avg payout ratio (TTM) Dividend payout ratio 10y avg
89% 0% 0%
Capex
(TTM)
of operating cash flow10y
10y avg 5y 3y 1y P/E (TTM)
12% 10% -0.2 % 0.4 % 0.6 % 0.0 % 9.2
P/E 10y avg P/B (TTM) P/B 10y avg P/S (TTM) P/S 10y avg
23.3 1.7 4.4 1.1 2.6
P/operating cash flow (TTM)
P/operating cash flow 10y
P/FCF
avg (TTM) Shiller P/E
8.6 21.4 9.8 14.7
P/Operating income (TTM) FCF/market cap yield (TTM)Dividend yield (TTM)
Shareholder yield (TTM)
6.4 10.2 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Peter Lynch ratio (TTM)
Warren Buffets ratio (TTM)
EV/Operating income (TTM) FCF/Enterprise yield (TTM)
2.06 7.12 9.9 6.5 %
Total quality score Company quality Current stock price Intrinsic value Buyprice
75% Very good 57.93 123 86
Margin of safetyBuy/Hold/Sell
53% Buy
Copyright 2017. The Warren Buffett Spreadsheet

Stock ticker TSLA
482.43

Checklist ratios
Efficiency 0%
Financial strenght
GrowthGrowth
rates rates 86%
Checklist
Financialratios
strenght 44%
Efficiency growth
Efficiency
Valuation ratios
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%100%
Valuation inputs

-1132
-1424

-914
Free cash flow
45.2 %
EPS Change?
16.9 %
42.1 %
-30.2 %

s afe ty

safety %
Margin of safety
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

P/E — —
P/B 12.2 10.2
P/S 11.6 13.9
P/Operating cash flow — —

Operating Income (mill) -147 -251
Net Income (mill) -154 -254
Earnings Per Share -3.04 -2.53
Dividend per share — —
Operating Cash Flow (mill) -128 -114
Free Cash Flow (mill) -168 -312
Interest Coverage -154.4 —
Debt/Equity 0.35 1.21

Operating income per share -2.9 -2.5
Operating cash flow per share -2.5 -1.1
Free cash flow per share -3.3 -3.1
Capex 40 198
STDV 4.12
10y avg EPS -4.7
10y avg FCF per share -5.7
10y avg free cash flow -743

5y avg free cash flow -798
10y avg capex 40

5y avg capex 2143
3yavg capex 1731
Y's to pay long term debt with net income -0.3 -1.3
Y's pay long term debt with free cash flow -0.2 -1.1
Debt/Equity 0.4 1.2
Interest coverage -154.4 —
Efficiency 1 2
FCF/Sales -144% -153%
CROIC -112% -50%
ROTC -65%
ROE -118%
Operating margin -126% -123%
Net margin -132% -125%

Dividend safety
Capex of operating cash flow -31% -174%
5 year cumulative capex of 5y cumulative net inc -201%

Earnings Per Share USD -3.04 -2.53
Free Cash Flow USD Mil -168 -312
Dividends USD — —
Number of years of new high dividend
Operating Income USD Mil -147 -251
Number of years new high operating income
Operating Cash Flow USD Mil -128 -114

Free cash flow (FCF) 58.1 % -4.7 %
Net income 43.8 % 21.2 %
Operating cash flow -10.0 % -251.6 %

FCF/Sales -18.2 % -51.0 %
CROIC -19.4 % -39.3 %
ROTC -35.8 %
ROE -21.7 %
Operating margin -27.0 % -48.5 %
Net Margin -25.6 % -37.7 %
Historical valua
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
100
80
60
40
20
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Earnings grow
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
-20
-40
Earnings grow
30000 200
24578 24578 0
25000 1 2 3 4
-61 5 6 7 8
21461 -200 -147
-251 -187
20000 -400
-394
-600
15000 -800 -717 -667
11759
-1000
10000 -1200
7000
-1400
5000 3198 4046
2013 -1600
117 204 413
0 -1800 -1632
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Year number
Year number

0.00 12.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
-0.6
-2.00 10.00
-2.5 -2.4
-4.00 -3.0 -3.7 8.00
-4.7 -4.9 -4.9
-6.00
-5.7 6.00
-8.00 -6.9
4.00
-10.00
0.00 12.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
-0.6
-2.00 10.00
-2.5 -2.4
-4.00 -3.0 -3.7 8.00
-4.7 -4.9 -4.9
-6.00
-5.7 6.00
-8.00 -6.9
4.00
-10.00
-12.00 2.00
-11.8
-14.00 0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Year number
Year number

3000 2000
2500 2405 2405
2098 1000
2000
0
1500 1
-168 2 3 4
-6 5 6 7 8
-312 -505
-1000
1000 -1027
-2000 -1564
500 258 -2159
-3000
0
1
-128 2
-114 3 4 5
-57 6 7
-124 8
-61 9 10 11
-500 -266 -4000
-524 -4142
-1000 -5000

160 2
138.9 138.9
140 0
125.5
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
120 -0.5
-2 -1.5
100 -2.5
-4 -2.9 -3.7
80 70.8 -4.6
-6 -5.6
60 48.6
31.6 -8
40
25.6
16.9 -10
20 -9.8
2.3 2.0 3.9
0 -12
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Year number
Year number
Efficiency
50%
0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
-50%
-100%
-50%
-100%
-150%
-200%
-250%
FCF/Sales CROIC
20% 4% 4% 20%
0%
1 2 3 4
0% 5 6 7 8 9
-1% 10 11 0%
-20% 1 2 3 4
-1% 5 6 7 8
-40% -22% -20%
-32% -35%
-60% -26% -25%
-53% -40% -35%
-80%
-60% -50%
-100% -58%
-120% -80%
-140% -122%
-144% -100%
-160% -153% -101%
-180% -120% -112%

0% 20%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
-19% -23% -21% -15% -15% 0%
-50% -37% 1 2 3 4
-3% 5 6 7 8
-44% -6% -10% -14%
-20%
-18%
-100% -40%
-89%
-118% -60%
-150% -80%
-100% -95%
-200%
-120%
-227% -126% -123%
-250% -140%
Financial stren
0 20
1
-0.3 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
-2 -1.3 -1.0
0
-4 -2.8 1
-0.2 2
-1.1 3
-0.8 4 5
-1.9 6
-1.1 7
-2.4 8
-2.9
-20
-6 -5.5
-6.6 -6.7 -6.2
-8 -40
-10
-10.3 -60
-12
-80
-14 -13.0 -81.8
-14.0
-2 -1.3 0
-4 -2.8 1
-0.2 2
-1.1 3
-0.8 4 5
-1.9 6
-1.1 7
-2.4 8
-2.9
-20
-6 -5.5
-6.6 -6.7 -6.2
-8 -40
-10
-10.3 -60
-12
-80
-14 -13.0 -81.8
-14.0
-16 -100

3 2.76 20
0
2.5 1 2 3 4 -1.82
-1.17 5 -6.37
6 -2.75
7 -3.69
8
-20
1.95 1.88 -40
2
-60
1.52
1.5 -80
1.13 1.13
0.97 0.99 1.07 -100
1 0.86 0.83
-120
0.5 -140
-160 -154.4
0 -180
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Year number
Year number
Checklist ratios &

12 3500% 3215%
3000%
10
2500%
8
2000%
6 1500%
1000%
4 516% 544%
500%
120% 223% 149% 170%
2
0%
1 2 3 4
-29% 5 6 7 8
0 -500%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Year number
Year number

1000% 200
102% 111% 60% 60%
0% 180 166
1 -174%
-31% 2 -90%
3 4 5 6
-312% 7 8 9 10 11 160
-1000% 144
-1161% 140 125 128
-2000% -1702% 119
120 107
-3000% 100
100
-4000%
80
-5000% 60 51
-6000% 40
-7000% -6690% 20
-8000% 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Year number
Year number
-6000% 40
-7000% -6690% 20
-8000% 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Year number
Year number

5y average free cash flow: -1,424
Years: 1-3 4-7

Growth Rate: 45% 36%
Year Flows Growth

1 -2,067 45%
2 -3,001 45%
3 -4,357 45%
4 -5,933 36%
5 -8,077 36%
6 -10,997 36%
7 -14,972 36%
8 -19,302 29%
9 -24,884 29%
10 -32,081 29%
Terminal Year -32722

PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows: -58679
Terminal Value: -121695
Total PV of Cash Flows: -180373
Intrinsic Value (IV): -1,019

No Growth P/E 7
Dividend Yield % 0% Points
Basic P/E 18.0
5y average EPS -6.41
Fair Value P/E 14.6
Intrinsic Value -94
10y median ROE -30.2 %
Normalized Net Income -1917
Normalized EPS -10.83
10 Year Average Net Profit Margin -38.6 %
Revenue (TTM) 24578
Normalized Net Income -9490
Normalized EPS -53.62
Average Normalized EPS -32.22
Intrinsic Value -1349

5 year average EPS -6.41 2
Discount Rate 11% 6
P/E Ratio in 10 Years ( 10y median p/e ratio) 7
8
9
10

Value of Future Sales Price Today 10
P/E valuation
5y average EPS -6.41
Average historical P/E
EPS growth rate 17%
Discount rate 11%

1 -7.50
2 -8.74
3 -10.15
4 -11.76
5 -13.59
6 -15.67
7 -18.01
8 -20.65
9 -23.61
10 -26.93
Value in 10 years #VALUE!
Intrinsic Value #VALUE!

Annual Dividend —
Intrinsic Value

10y Median Return On Equity -30.2 %
Number Of Years 10
Future Book Value -1,209
Converting Percentage To Decimal -0.302
Future Per Share Earnings -364.7
Terminal value
Intrinsic Value

TSLA 3/30/2020

1 0
1 0
1 1
1 0
1 0
0 1
1 1
0
0
0
0
0
3 stage DCF
Margin of safety N/A Classic Value Valuation
Company Quality Low Book Value I.V
Buy/hold/sell? Sell Projected compounding

Median
Share buybacks Data

5y -6.3 % P/E
3y -2.1 % P/E Yield
1y 0.0 % P/B
P/S
Operating cash flow -18% FCF/Enterprise yield
FCF/price yield
Dividend yield
5
Financial strength
ROE -24.8 % Interest coverage
Operating margin -36.2 % Z-Score
Net margin -29.8 % M-Score
Checklist ratios
Dividend safety
3 4 5 6
— — — —
31.0 32.8 29.2 24.0
8.8 10.3 9.6 8.0
— 176.3 —
3 4 5 6
413 2013 3198 4046
-394 -61 -187 -717
-396 -74 -294 -889
-3.69 -0.62 -2.36 -6.93
— — — —
107 119 125 128
1.1 4.6 7.6 10.0
-266 258 -57 -524
-505 -6 -1027 -2159
— -1.17 -1.82 -6.37
0.97 1.88 1.52 0.99
3.30 0.90 2.06 1.91
385 491 1962 2445

117 545 953 1280
3.9 16.9 25.6 31.6
-3.7 -0.5 -1.5 -5.6
-2.5 2.2 -0.5 -4.1
-4.7 -0.1 -8.2 -16.9
239 264 970 1635
1.28 0.10 5.49 3.01
3 4 5 6
-1.0 -6.6 -6.7 -2.8
-0.8 -81.8 -1.9 -1.1
3.3 0.9 2.1 1.9
1.0 1.9 1.5 1.0
— -1.2 -1.8 -6.4
3 4 5 6
-122% 0% -32% -53%
-101% -1% -35% -58%
-72% -6% -10% -23%
-227% -19% -37% -89%
7% 23% 28% 23%
-95% -3% -6% -18%
-96% -4% -9% -22%
3 4 5 6
149% -29% 516% 170%
-90% 102% -1702% -312%
3 4 5 6
-3.69 -0.62 -2.36 -6.93
2
0 0 0 0
413 2013 3198 4046
2 3 4 5
-505 -6 -1027 -2159
1
0 0 0 0
— — — —
1 1 1 1
-394 -61 -187 -717
1
0 0 0 0
-266 258 -57 -524
2
0 1 0 0
3y-10y 1y-6y 2y-7y 3y-8y

-209.7 % 66.6 % 38.0 % 52.3 %
79.3 % 103.1 % 102.8 % 95.4 %
4.2 % 17.9 % 13.1 % 26.2 %
11.8 % 42.0 % 21.6 % 37.7 %
63.0 % 35.6 % 42.6 % 91.3 %
-179.6 % 37.3 % 21.6 % 32.9 %
-237.0 % 32.6 % 1.7 % -25.5 %
3y-10y 1y-6y 2y-7y 3y-8y

-161.2 % -18.0 % -31.9 % -22.0 %
-166.3 % -12.3 % -12.5 % -24.5 %
-41.6 % -36.7 % -30.8 %
-32.2 % -27.8 % -28.1 %
12.5 % -2.8 % -5.5 % 21.0 %
-144.4 % -32.4 % -40.0 % -32.0 %
-37.7 % -30.1 % -40.0 % -29.5 %
P/E
P/B
P/S
P/E
P/B
P/S
6 7 8 9 10 11
Earnings growth

Earnings Per Share
Dividend per share
6 7 8 9 10 11
Earnings growth
80 80 0
1 2 3 4
-74 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
-154
2 3 4
-61 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 -254 -294
-500 -396
-251 -187 -253
-394 -675
-1000 -889 -862 -862
-976
-717 -667
-1500
-2000
-1961
-1632 -2500

40
35.9
35 33.4
30 27.9
26.1
25
20 16.6
15
10.0
40
35.9
35 33.4
30 27.9
26.1
25
20 16.6
15
10.0
10 7.6
4.6
5 2.2 2.8
1.1
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

10
5.5 5.5
968 968 5
0
1 2 3 4
-0.1 5 6 7 8 9
-1.3 10 11
2 3 4
-6 5 6 7 8 9
-222 10 11 -5
-312 -505 -3.3 -3.1
-4.7
-1027 -10 -8.2
-1564 -10.9
-2159 -15
-20 -16.9
-25
-4142 -25.0
-30

15 13.6 13.6
0.5 0.5 12.3
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
-0.5 10
-1.5 -1.5
-2.5
-3.7
-4.6 5
-5.6 2.2
0
1 2 3 4 5
-0.5 6 7 8
-0.4 9 10 11
-1.1 -0.9
-9.8 -2.5 -2.5
-5 -4.1
Efficiency
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
FCF/Sales
CROIC
ROTC
ROE
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
FCF/Sales
CROIC
ROTC
ROE
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
CROIC ROTC
0%
6% 5% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
-2% 11
-2%
-10% -6% -3%
-7%
2 3 4
-1% 5 6 7 8 9
-2% 10 11 -10% -11%
-20%
-30% -23%
-26% -25%
-35%
-40%
-50%
-58% -50%
-60%
-70% -65%
-101%
-72%
-80%

0%
0% 0% 1 2 3 4
-4% 5 6 7 8 9
-5% 10
-4% 11
-4%
-20% -9% -10%
2 3 4
-3% 5 6 7 8 9
-1% 10 11 -17%
-6% -10% -14% -22%
-18% -40%
-60%
-80%
-100% -96%
-95%
-120%
-123% -125%
-140% -132%
Financial strength
11.6 12.5 3.5 3.3
3
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 2.62
-1.1 -0.8 -1.9 -1.1 -2.4 -2.9
2.5 2.25
2.06
2 1.91 1.9 1.9
1.54
-45.3 1.5 1.21
1 0.9
0.5 0.35
-81.8
3
2 3
-0.8 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 2.62
-1.1 -1.9 -1.1 -2.4 -2.9
2.5 2.25
2.06
2 1.91 1.9 1.9
1.54
-45.3 1.5 1.21
1 0.9
0.5 0.35
-81.8
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Year number
Year number

14000
0.03 0.03 12139 12070
2 3 4 -1.82
-1.17 5 -6.37
6 -2.75
7 -3.69
8 -0.52
9 10 11 12000 11219
10050
10000
8000
6000
4000 3679
2445
1962
2000
39 340 385 491
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Year number
Year number

3215% 1200%
1000%
800%
600%
516% 544% 400%

223% 149% 170%
200%
2 3 4
-29% 5 6 7 8 9 -36%
-47% 10 -36%
11
0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Year number
Year number

2000
171 177 177
166 1000 Net Income (mill)
144
128 0
119 125 1Free Cash
2 Flow3 (mill) 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
100 107 -1000
-2000
-3000
-4000
-5000
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Year number
-4000
-5000
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Year number
ods
8-10
29%
11%
40%
Value
-1,862
-2,436
-3,186
-3,908
-4,793
-5,879
-7,212
-8,376
-9,728
-11,298
7.00 0% 0.0% 0.0
7.65 1% 0.1% 0.5
8.30 2% 0.5% 0.5
10.8 8.95 3% 1.0% 1.0
0.0 9.60 4% 1.5% 1.5
10.25 5% 2.0% 2.0
10.90 6% 2.5% 2.5
0.90 11.55 7% 3.0% 3.0
12.20 8% ∆0.65 3.5% 3.5
1.00 12.85 9% 4.0% 4.0
0.90 13.50 10 % 4.5% 4.5
14.15 11 % 5.0% 5.0
14.80 12 % 5.5% 5.5
15.45 13 % 6.0% 6.0
16.10 14 % 6.5% 6.5
16.75 15 % 10.0% 10.0
17.40 16 %
17.90 17 %
18.40 18 %
18.90 19 %
19.40 20 %
19.90 21 % ∆0.50
20.40 22 %
20.90 23 %
21.40 24 %
15.45 13 % 6.0% 6.0
16.10 14 % 6.5% 6.5
16.75 15 % 10.0% 10.0
17.40 16 %
17.90 17 %
18.40 18 %
18.90 19 %
19.40 20 %
19.90 21 % ∆0.50
20.40 22 %
20.90 23 %
21.40 24 %
21.90 25 %

-7.5 0% 0.0 0.00
-8.8 0% 0.0 0.00
-10.2 0% 0.0 0.00
-12.0 0% 0.0 0.00
-14.0 0% 0.0 0.00
-15.9 0% 0.0 0.00
-18.0 0% 0.0 0.00
-20.4 0% 0.0 0.00
-23.2 0% 0.0 0.00
-26.3 0% 0.0 0.00
Sum 0.00
-26.3
5 2.31 -2.47 0.0

1 1 0 0
0 1 0 0
0 1 0 0
0 1 0 0
0 0 0 0
1 1 0 0
1 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0
0 0
1 0
0 0
1 0
0
0
0 0 N/A
0 0 N/A
0 0 N/A
0 0 N/A
N/A
0 0 N/A
0 0 N/A
0 0 N/A
TTM 10y avg 5y avg

-98.1
-1.0 % -1.0 % -1.4 %
13.4 18.5 12.7
3.5 7.4 3.8
35.5 76.5 51.6
-103.6
1067.4
0.1 %
1112.9
0.1 %
92.0
1.1 %
88.2
1.1 %
0%
0.0 %
-0.17
-0.26
TTM 10y avg 5y avg

4% -50% -22%
5% -36% -21%
-2% -20% -9%
-15% -61% -38%
17% 21% 20%
0% -36% -8%
-4% -39% -11%

3.7 %
TTM 10y avg 5y avg
-14.0 -6.1 -7.5
12.5 -10.3 -8.0
1.9 1.8 2.0
1.1 1.4 1.0
0.0 -19.0 -2.7
5
2
-2.47
TTM 10y avg 5y avg
-36% 435% 769%
60% -893% -1599%

-190% -201%
— — — — —
12.9 11.2 12.7 12.5 14.3
5.0 4.7 3.2 3.0 3.1
100.3 — 41.1 33.1 32.0
7000 11759 21461 24578 24578
-667 -1632 -253 80 80
-675 -1961 -976 -862 -862
-4.68 -11.83 -5.72 -4.92 -4.92
— — — — —
144 166 171 177 177
16.6 27.9 26.1 33.4 35.9
-124 -61 2098 2405 2405
-1564 -4142 -222 968 968
-2.75 -3.69 -0.52 0.03 0.03
1.07 0.86 0.83 1.13 1.13
1.54 2.62 2.25 1.90 1.90
3679 12139 10050 11219 12070

2389 4633 4467 5905 6353
48.6 70.8 125.5 138.9 138.9
-4.6 -9.8 -1.5 0.5 0.5
-0.9 -0.4 12.3 13.6 13.6
-10.9 -25.0 -1.3 5.5 5.5
1440 4081 2320 1437 1437
2.34 2.54 0.88 12.10 12.10

-5.5 -6.2 -10.3 -13.0 -14.0 -6.1
-2.4 -2.9 -45.3 11.6 12.5 -10.3
1.5 2.6 2.3 1.9 1.9 1.8
1.1 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.4
-2.8 -3.7 -0.5 0.0 0.0 -19.0

-22% -35% -1% 4% 4% -50%
-26% -25% -2% 6% 5% -36%
-7% -11% -3% -2% -2% -20%
-23% -44% -21% -15% -15% -61%
23% 19% 19% 17% 17% 21%
-10% -14% -1% 0% 0% -36%
-10% -17% -5% -4% -4% -39%
4%
544% 3215% -47% -36% -36% 435%
-1161% -6690% 111% 60% 60% -893%
7 8 9 10 TTM
-4.68 -11.83 -5.72 -4.92 -4.92
0 0 0 0 0
7000 11759 21461 24578 24578
6 7 8 9 10
-1564 -4142 -222 968 968
2 3
0 0 0 1 1
— — — — —
1 1 1 1 1
-667 -1632 -253 80 80
2 3
0 0 0 1 1
-124 -61 2098 2405 2405
3 4 5
0 0 1 1 1
4y-9y 5y-10y Median

105.9 % -198.8 % 45.2 %
60.5 % 50.4 % 93.8 %
56.0 % 15.8 % 16.9 %
67.5 % 24.0 % 30.9 %
41.7 % 34.4 % 42.1 %
32.9 % -184.4 % 27.2 %
52.1 % -311.4 % -17.8 %
4y-9y 5y-10y Median

28.3 % -165.7 % -27.0 %
21.4 % -169.4 % -22.0 %
-12.3 % -29.8 % -33.3 %
2.7 % -16.7 % -24.8 %
-3.7 % -9.7 % -4.2 %
-17.2 % -156.1 % -36.2 %
4.3 % -17.5 % -29.8 %
P/E
P/B
P/S
P/E
P/B
P/S
/revenue per share

ngs Per Share
cash flow per share
Value Per Share
end per share
8 9 10 11
-862 -862
-976
-1961
re
35.9
33.4
27.9
26.1
re
35.9
33.4
27.9
26.1
8 9 10 11
are
5.5 5.5
8 9
-1.3 10 11
-25.0
share
13.6 13.6
12.3
8
-0.4 9 10 11
FCF/Sales
CROIC
ROTC
ROE
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
FCF/Sales
CROIC
ROTC
ROE
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
8 9 10
-2% 11
-2%
-3%
-11%
8 9
-5% 10
-4% 11
-4%
-17%
2.62
2.25
1.9 1.9
2.62
2.25
1.9 1.9
8 9 10 11
12139 12070
11219
10050
8 9 10 11
tio
8 9 10 11
8 9 10 11
10y avg (TTM)
Debt/Equity 10y avg
Current ratio
Current
(TTM)ratio
Y's to10y
payavg
-19.0 1.9 1.8 1.1 1.4 -14.0
Checklist ratios
1
1
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
Years
(TTM)
to pay debt with
FCF
FCF
(Free
10ycash
avg flow)
-6.1 12.5 -10.3 45%

Price/Sales 11.57 13.91 8.8 10.34
P/E — — — —
Price/Cash Flow — — —
Price/Book 12.21 10.15 31.02 32.82

Revenue USD Mil 117 204 413 2,013
Gross Margin % 26.3 30.20 7.3 22.7
Operating Income USD Mil -147 -251.00 -394 -61
Operating Margin % -125.8 -123.1 -95.4 -3
Net Income USD Mil -154 -254 -396 -74
Earnings Per Share USD -3.04 -2.53 -3.69 -0.62
Dividends USD — — — —
Payout Ratio % * — — — —
Shares Mil 51 100 107 119
Operating Cash Flow USD Mil -128 -114 -266 258
Free Cash Flow USD Mil -168 -312 -505 -6
Free Cash Flow Per Share * USD -3.31 -2.88 -4.71 -1.26
Working Capital USD Mil 150 181 -14 591

Tax Rate % — — — —
Net Margin % -132.19 -124.56 -95.88 -3.68
Return on Assets % -59.76 -46.28 -43.36 -4.19
Return on Equity % — -118.03 -227.22 -18.69
Return on Invested Capital % — -64.95 -72.33 -5.65
Interest Coverage -154.4 — — -1.17
Current Ratio 2.76 1.95 0.97 1.88
Quick Ratio 1.24 1.51 0.42 1.33
Debt/Equity 0.35 1.21 3.3 0.9

Operating income
Operating cash
Dividend
flow 10y growth
94% 17% 42% 27% -18%
Current
9.64 8.03 4.98 4.7 3.22 3 3.13
— — — — — — —
176.33 — 100.28 — 41.11 33.06 31.96
29.18 23.99 12.88 11.15 12.74 12.54 14.33
TTM
3,198 4,046 7,000 11,759 21,461 24,578 24,578
27.6 22.8 22.8 18.9 18.8 16.6 16.6
-187 -717 -667 -1,632 -253 80 80
-5.8 -17.7 -9.5 -13.9 -1.2 0.3 0.3
-294 -889 -675 -1,961 -976 -862 -862
-2.36 -6.93 -4.68 -11.83 -5.72 -4.92 -4.92
— — — — — — —
— — — — — — —
125 128 144 166 171 177 177
7.62 10 16.59 27.91 26.12 33.36 35.89
-57 -524 -124 -61 2,098 2,405 2,405
-970 -1,635 -1,440 -4,081 -2,320 -1,437 -1,437
-1,027 -2,159 -1,564 -4,142 -222 968 968
-4.31 -17.14 -6.34 -30.01 -8.84 4.98 —
1,091 -25 433 -1,104 -1,686 1,436 —

— — — — — — —
-9.19 -21.96 -9.64 -16.68 -4.55 -3.51 -3.51
0.77 0.58 0.46 0.46 0.73 0.77 0.77
-7.11 -12.75 -4.39 -7.64 -3.34 -2.69 -2.69
6.42 7.43 4.77 6.76 6.04 5.18 5.18
-37.25 -88.84 -23.11 -43.63 -21.31 -14.94 -14.94
-9.81 -22.72 -6.59 -11.49 -2.93 -1.67 -1.67
-1.82 -6.37 -2.75 -3.69 -0.52 0.03 0.03
1.52 0.99 1.07 0.86 0.83 1.13 1.13
1.01 0.48 0.67 0.51 0.46 0.71 0.71
6.42 7.43 4.77 6.76 6.04 5.18 5.18
2.06 1.91 1.54 2.62 2.25 1.9 1.9

4% -50% 5% -36% -2% -20% -15%
-61% 0% -36% -4%
-39% 3.7 % 2 0
10 3 2 11
11 3 2 5
4 107%
-36%
435%
Capex
(TTM)
60% -893% -12.9 % -6.3 % -2.1 % 0.0 % -98.1
13.4 18.5 3.5 7.4
P/FCF
35.5 76.5 88.2 -103.6
1067.4 1.1 % 0% 0.0 %
-0.17 -0.26 1112.9 1.1 %
32% Low 482.43 0 0
N/A Sell

Stock ticker MSFT
149.7

Valuation ratios 7%
Checklist ratios
Efficiency 100%
Financial strenght
GrowthGrowth
rates rates 29%
Checklist
Financialratios
strenght 89%
Efficiency growth
Efficiency
Valuation ratios
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%100%
Valuation inputs
23.9
33963
30002

27739
Free cash flow
10.0 % 10.0 %
EPS Change?
10.0 % 10%
8.0 % 8%
29.4 %

s afe ty

safety %
Margin of safety
-94%
-150% -100% -50% 0% 50% 100%

P/E 11.9 9.4
P/B 4.8 3.7
P/S 3.7 3.1


Capex 1977 2355
STDV 0.16
10y avg EPS 2.9

10y avg capex 1977

5y avg capex 11115
3yavg capex 13034
Debt/Equity 0.1 0.2
Efficiency 1 2
FCF/Sales 35% 35%
CROIC 42% 35%
ROTC 39% 38%
ROE 44% 45%
Net margin 30% 33%

Dividend safety 5.2 5.1

Earnings Per Share USD 2.10 2.69
Free Cash Flow USD Mil 22096 24639
Dividends USD 0.5 0.6
Operating Income USD Mil 24157 27161
Operating Cash Flow USD Mil 24073 26994

EPS (Earnings per share) 6.4 % -3.3 %
Net income 1.8 % -4.7 %
Operating income -0.9 % 3.7 %

FCF/Sales -0.2 % -2.6 %
CROIC -9.1 % -7.2 %
ROTC -11.6 % -15.6 %
ROE -5.5 % -10.0 %
Net Margin -3.4 % -10.7 %
Historical valua
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
25
20
15
10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Earnings grow
20
18
16
14
12
10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Earnings grow
160000 60000
140000 134249
125843 50000
120000 110360
93580 40000
100000 86833 85320 89950
77849 27161 27956 26764 27886 28172
80000 69943 73723 30000
24157
62484
21292 22632
60000
20000
40000
10000
20000
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

7.00 2.00
5.7 1.80
6.00
1.60 1.53
5.1 1.39
5.00 1.40
1.21
4.00 1.20 1.07
3.3 1.00 0.89
3.00 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 0.76
0.80
2.1 2.0 2.1 0.61
2.00 0.60 0.52
7.00 2.00
5.7 1.80
6.00 1.53
5.1 1.60
1.39
5.00 1.40
1.21
4.00 1.20 1.07
3.3 1.00 0.89
3.00 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 0.76
0.80
2.1 2.0 2.1 0.61
2.00 1.5 0.60 0.52
0.40
1.00
0.20
0.00 0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

60000 45000
52185 54126
40000
50000
43884 35000 31378
39507 29321
40000 30000 26746
31626 32231 33325 24639 24576 24982
28833 29080 25000 22096 23136
30000 26994
24073 20000
20000 15000
10000
10000
5000
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

20 7
18 17.4
16.2 6
16
14.2
14 5
12 11.3 10.6 11.5
10.3 4 3.4
10 9.2 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.3
8.1 8.7 2.9
3 2.7 2.7
8 7.0
6 2
4
1
2
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Efficiency
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
FCF/Sales CROIC
45% 45% 42%
40%
40% 40% 36%
35% 35% 35% 35%
35% 32% 31% 35%
29% 29% 30% 30%
30% 30% 27%
25% 24%
25% 25% 22%
21%
20% 20% 18%
15% 15%
10% 10%
5% 5%
0% 0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

50% 45%
45%
45% 44% 42% 44% 40% 39% 39% 38%
40% 34%
35% 32%
35% 30%
30% 29% 30%
30% 28% 25% 25%
26% 25%
25% 22% 21%
20%
20%
14% 15%
15%
10% 10%
5% 5%
0% 0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Financial stren
5 2.5 2.4
4.6
4.5
4 2
3.5 1.8
3.5
3 2.7 1.5 1.4
2.6
2.5
2 1.7 1.6 1
0.8
1.5
0.9 0.5 0.5
1 0.7 0.5 0.4
0.5 0.6 0.2
0.5 0.3
4 2
3.5 1.8
3.5
3 2.7 1.5 1.4
2.6
2.5
2 1.7 1.6 1
0.8
1.5
0.9 0.5 0.5
1 0.7 0.5 0.4
0.5 0.6 0.2
0.5 0.3
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

3.5 180 166.65
3 2.9 160
2.71 2.8
2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.53 140
2.48
2.5 2.35
2.13 120
2 96.16
100
1.5 80
59.6 64.06
60 47.6
1
40 24.7
0.5 16.89 11.42
20
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Checklist ratios &

6 5.1498264885829
5.1858665586681 100%
7 7 4.8922123083396 86%
2 90%
5 78% 76%
3.8248676757359 80%
3.5864305163164 3.7394127004600
3.7095978287688 68%
4 1 3.4124151445167
4
3.2969316429329 1 70%
7 6
2.9919905333688
2.9116861947225
6 60% 54% 54%
2 9 50%
3 50% 42%
40%
2
30%
1 20%
10%
0 0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

30% 9500
27% 27%
25% 25%
25% 9000 8927
20% 21%
20% 8593 8506
17% 8470 8399
8500
15% 8254
15%
8013
8000 7832
10% 8% 9%
7%
7500
5%
0% 7000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
7500
5%
0% 7000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

5y average free cash flow: 30,002
Years: 1-3 4-7

Growth Rate: 10% 8%
Shares Outstanding: 7,720 MOS:
Year Flows Growth

1 33,002 10%
2 36,302 10%
3 39,932 10%
4 43,127 8%
5 46,577 8%
6 50,303 8%
7 54,327 8%
8 57,804 6%
9 61,504 6%
10 65,440 6%
Terminal Year 66749

Number of Shares: 7,720

No Growth P/E 7
Basic P/E 15.1
Financial Risk 0.90 Adjustment
Earnings stability 1 Adjustment
5y average EPS 3.75
Fair Value P/E 18.3
Intrinsic Value 69
Normalized EPS 4.25
Revenue (TTM) 134249
Normalized EPS 4.35
Intrinsic Value 127

Discount Rate 11% 6
8
9
10

P/E valuation
5y average EPS 3.75
EPS growth rate 10%
Discount rate 11%

1 4.12
2 4.53
3 4.96
4 5.43
5 5.93
6 6.47
7 7.04
8 7.65
9 8.30
10 8.99
Intrinsic Value 76

Intrinsic Value 52

Number Of Years 10
Terminal value 219
Intrinsic Value 77

MSFT 3/29/2020

0 0
0 1
0 0
0 1
0 1
1 1
1 1
0
1
1
1
1
3 stage DCF
Margin of safety -94% Classic Value Valuation
Company Quality Excellent Book Value I.V
Buy/hold/sell? Sell Projected compounding

Median
Share buybacks Data

10y 1.6 % Valuation ratios
5y 1.3 % P/E
3y 0.5 % P/E Yield
1y 0.4 % P/B
P/S
Dividend 10y growth 15% P/FCF
FCF/price yield
Dividend yield
8
Financial strength
Checklist ratios
Dividend safety
3 4 5 6
14.7 14.0 18.2 36.7
3.1 3.8 4.2 5.7
3.1 3.9 4.3 5.0
7.4 11.1 12.0 15.5
3 4 5 6
73723 77849 86833 93580
27956 26764 27886 28172
16978 21863 22074 12193
2.00 2.58 2.63 1.48
0.76 0.89 1.07 1.21
8506 8470 8399 8254
8.2 9.2 10.6 11.2
31626 28833 32231 29080
29321 24576 26746 23136
59.6 64.06 47.6 24.7
2.60 2.71 2.50 2.50
0.16 0.16 0.23 0.35
11146 12481 20496 32442

69664 78009 89113 92692
8.7 9.2 10.3 11.3
3.3 3.2 3.3 3.4
3.7 3.4 3.8 3.5
3.4 2.9 3.2 2.8
2305 4257 5485 5944
1.05 0.92 0.96 0.82
3 4 5 6
0.7 0.6 0.9 2.7
0.4 0.5 0.8 1.4
0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4
2.6 2.7 2.5 2.5
59.6 64.1 47.6 24.7
3 4 5 6
40% 32% 31% 25%
36% 27% 24% 18%
23% 26% 22% 11%
28% 30% 26% 14%
76% 74% 69% 65%
38% 34% 32% 30%
23% 28% 25% 13%
3 4 5 6
4.9 3.8 3.6 2.9
54% 76% 68% 42%
38% 34% 41% 82%
7% 15% 17% 20%
3 4 5 6
2.00 2.58 2.63 1.48
1 1 1 1
73723 77849 86833 93580
2 3 4 5
29321 24576 26746 23136
1
1 1 1 1
0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2
2 3 4 5
1 1 1 1
27956 26764 27886 28172
2 3
1 1 1 1
31626 28833 32231 29080
2 3
1 1 1 1
3y-10y 1y-6y 2y-7y 3y-8y

3.9 % 0.9 % 0.3 % 1.4 %
7.9 % 8.4 % 4.1 % 4.1 %
14.2 % -6.8 % -1.0 % 10.2 %
12.7 % -8.3 % -6.2 % 4.5 %
6.1 % 16.1 % 7.0 % 2.0 %
6.3 % 3.1 % -4.8 % -4.1 %
7.4 % 3.9 % 4.3 % 4.6 %
3y-10y 1y-6y 2y-7y 3y-8y

-3.8 % -6.9 % -3.6 % -2.6 %
-6.2 % -15.2 % -9.8 % -9.9 %
0.5 % -22.0 % -17.0 % -6.8 %
6.4 % -20.0 % -13.2 % 1.3 %
-2.1 % -4.2 % -4.5 % -4.1 %
-1.5 % -4.9 % -8.5 % -7.9 %
4.4 % -15.4 % -9.9 % 0.5 %
P/E
P/B
P/S
P/E
P/B
P/S
6 7 8 9 10 11
Earnings growth

Earnings Per Share
Dividend per share
6 7 8 9 10 11
Earnings growth
50000
44323
49323 45000
39240
42959 40000
35000
35058
30000
27161 27956 26764 27886 28172 25000 23150 21863 22074 21204
21292 22632 20000 18760 16978 16798 16571
15000 12193
10000
5000
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

1.89 16
1.80 14.5
1.65 14
1.53 12.4
1.39 12 11.2
10.6 10.3
1.21 9.2 9.6
1.07 10 9.1
8.2
0.89 8 6.8
0.76
0.61 6 5.3
1.89 16
1.80 14.5
1.65 14
1.53 12.4
1.39 12 11.2
10.6 10.3
1.21 9.2 9.6
1.07 10 9.1
8.2
0.89 8 6.8
0.76
0.61 6 5.3
4
2
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

6
40580 5.3
38260 4.9
5
31378 32252 4.0 4.1
29321
26746 4
24639 24576 24982 3.4
23136 3.2 3.1
2.9 2.9 2.8
3 2.5
2
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

6.4 8
7.0
7 6.7
5.5
6 5.6
4.5 5.0
5
3.4 4.2
3.2 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.7 3.8
2.9 4 3.4 3.5
2.7 3.1
3 2.7
2
1
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Efficiency
FCF/Sales
CROIC
ROTC
ROE
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
FCF/Sales
CROIC
ROTC
ROE
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
CROIC ROTC
45%
40% 39% 38%
35% 36%
35%
27% 30% 26%
24% 26% 24%
23% 22% 25% 23% 22%
21% 22% 21%
18% 20%
15% 16%
15% 11% 11%
10%
5%
0%
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

35% 33% 33%
39% 30% 31%
38% 37% 30% 28%
34% 34%
32% 32% 25%
30% 25% 23% 24%
25% 25% 20%
20%
15%
15% 13%
10%
5%
0%
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Financial strength
2.4 2.3 1.2
1.05
1 0.94
1.8 1.8 1.8
0.8 0.71
1.4 0.64
0.6 0.57
0.8 0.4 0.35

0.5 0.5 0.21 0.23
0.4 0.16 0.16
0.2 0.1
1 0.94
1.8 1.8 1.8
0.8 0.71
1.4 0.64
0.6 0.57
0.8 0.4 0.35

0.5 0.5 0.21 0.23
0.4 0.16 0.16
0.2 0.1
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

80000 74424 75608
71543
70000 68312
60000
50000 43756
96.16
40000
32442
59.6 64.06 30000
47.6 20496
20000
24.7 12307 11146 12481
16.89 11.42 14.35 17.27 19.95 10000 4758
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

90% 82%
86% 80% 77%
82%
76% 75%
68% 70%
60% 54%
54% 50% 54% 47%
50%
42% 38% 41%
38% 40% 34% 36% 33%
30% 25% 23%
20%
10%
0%
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

50000
45000
Net Income (mill)
40000
8593 8506 35000 Free Cash Flow (mill)
8470 8399 30000
8254
25000
8013
7832 7794 7753 20000
7720 15000
10000
5000
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Year number
10000
5000
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Year number
ods
8-10
6%
11%
25%
Value
29,731
29,463
29,198
28,409
27,641
26,894
26,167
25,083
24,043
23,047
7.00 0% 0.0% 0.0
7.65 1% 0.1% 0.5
8.30 2% 0.5% 0.5
6.5 8.95 3% 1.0% 1.0
1.5 9.60 4% 1.5% 1.5
10.25 5% 2.0% 2.0
10.90 6% 2.5% 2.5
1.10 11.55 7% 3.0% 3.0
12.20 8% ∆0.65 3.5% 3.5
1.10 12.85 9% 4.0% 4.0
1.00 13.50 10 % 4.5% 4.5
14.15 11 % 5.0% 5.0
14.80 12 % 5.5% 5.5
15.45 13 % 6.0% 6.0
16.10 14 % 6.5% 6.5
16.75 15 % 10.0% 10.0
17.40 16 %
17.90 17 %
18.40 18 %
18.90 19 %
19.40 20 %
19.90 21 % ∆0.50
20.40 22 %
20.90 23 %
21.40 24 %
15.45 13 % 6.0% 6.0
16.10 14 % 6.5% 6.5
16.75 15 % 10.0% 10.0
17.40 16 %
17.90 17 %
18.40 18 %
18.90 19 %
19.40 20 %
19.90 21 % ∆0.50
20.40 22 %
20.90 23 %
21.40 24 %
21.90 25 %

4.1 45% 1.8 1.65
4.5 45% 2.0 1.64
5.0 45% 2.2 1.62
5.5 45% 2.4 1.61
6.0 45% 2.7 1.59
6.5 45% 2.9 1.55
7.0 45% 3.1 1.51
7.6 45% 3.4 1.47
8.2 45% 3.7 1.43
8.9 45% 3.9 1.39
Sum 15.47
8.9 23.9 211.70 74.56
8 5.65 -2.51 20.0

1 0 1 0
1 0 1 0
1 0 1 0
1 0 1 0
1 0 1 0
1 0 1 0
1 0 1 0
1 0 1 0
1 0
1 1
1 0
1 0
1 0
0
0
83 62 -80%
69 51 -118%
127 95 -18%
90 68 -66%
76 57 -98%
52 39 -188%
77 58 -94%
77 58 -94%
TTM 10y avg 5y avg

26.1 23.9 31.5
3.8 % 2.0 % 1.9 %
10.3 6.4 9.0
8.6 5.5 7.6
21.4 14.2 18.5
51.1
23.4
4.3 %
21.9
4.6 %
26.6
3.8 %
28.5
3.5 %
1.3 %
1.7 %
0.15
3.32
TTM 10y avg 5y avg

30% 32% 30%
22% 27% 21%
26% 23% 16%
44% 31% 26%
68% 69% 64%
37% 33% 29%
33% 25% 20%

19.3 %
TTM 10y avg 5y avg
1.6 1.8 3.0
1.8 1.3 1.9
0.6 0.5 0.7
2.8 2.6 2.6
20.0 49.0 16.9
8
6
-2.51
TTM 10y avg 5y avg

3.7 3.9 3.3
82% 64% 52%
33% 45% 59%
25% 18% 24%
31% 40%
29.7 30.2 41.8 29.8 26.1
6.8 7.4 9.1 11.3 10.3
5.8 7.2 6.9 9.4 8.6
13.7 16.5 17.5 23.3 21.4
85320 89950 110360 125843 134249
21292 22632 35058 42959 49323
16798 21204 16571 39240 44323
2.56 3.25 2.13 5.06 5.74
1.39 1.53 1.65 1.80 1.89
8013 7832 7794 7753 7720
9.6 9.1 10.3 12.4 14.5
33325 39507 43884 52185 54126
24982 31378 32252 38260 40580
16.89 11.42 14.35 17.27 19.95
2.35 2.48 2.90 2.53 2.80
0.57 1.05 0.94 0.71 0.64
43756 74424 75608 68312 71543

76765 70880 80434 96215 111786
10.6 11.5 14.2 16.2 17.4
2.7 2.9 4.5 5.5 6.4
4.2 5.0 5.6 6.7 7.0
3.1 4.0 4.1 4.9 5.3
8343 8129 11632 13925 13546
1.17 1.39 0.92 0.89 0.82

2.6 3.5 4.6 1.7 1.6 1.8
1.8 2.4 2.3 1.8 1.8 1.3
0.6 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5
2.4 2.5 2.9 2.5 2.8 2.6
16.9 11.4 14.4 17.3 20.0 49.0

29% 35% 29% 30% 30% 32%
21% 22% 21% 23% 22% 27%
15% 16% 11% 24% 26% 23%
22% 29% 21% 42% 44% 31%
62% 62% 65% 66% 68% 69%
25% 25% 32% 34% 37% 33%
20% 24% 15% 31% 33% 25%
19%

3.0 3.3 3.4 3.7 3.7 3.9
50% 54% 38% 75% 82% 64%
54% 47% 77% 36% 33% 45%
25% 21% 27% 27% 25% 18%
7 8 9 10 TTM
2.56 3.25 2.13 5.06 5.74
2 3 4
1 1 1 1 1
85320 89950 110360 125843 134249
6 7 8
24982 31378 32252 38260 40580
2 3 4 5
1 1 1 1 1
1.4 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.9
6 7 8 9 10
1 1 1 1 1
21292 22632 35058 42959 49323
4 5 6
1 1 1 1 1
33325 39507 43884 52185 54126
4 5 6 7 8
1 1 1 1 1
4y-9y 5y-10y Median

5.6 % 7.4 % 3.9 %
7.2 % 7.7 % 7.0 %
-3.8 % 14.0 % 2.7 %
-5.4 % 12.2 % -1.4 %
2.3 % 3.2 % 6.1 %
5.5 % 9.0 % 3.4 %
8.8 % 10.1 % 7.3 %
4y-9y 5y-10y Median

-1.5 % -0.3 % -2.6 %
-5.3 % -1.0 % -8.1 %
-14.9 % 2.1 % -13.2 %
-6.6 % 10.1 % -6.1 %
-2.5 % -0.9 % -3.1 %
-1.6 % 1.2 % -3.9 %
-11.8 % 4.2 % -6.6 %
P/E
P/B
P/S
P/E
P/B
P/S
/revenue per share

ngs Per Share
cash flow per share
Value Per Share
end per share
44323
39240
21204
8 16571
8 9 10 11
re
14.5
12.4
10.3
9.1
re
14.5
12.4
10.3
9.1
8 9 10 11
are
5.3
4.9
4.0 4.1
8 9 10 11
share
7.0
6.7
5.6
5.0
8 9 10 11
FCF/Sales
CROIC
ROTC
ROE
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
FCF/Sales
CROIC
ROTC
ROE
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
26%
24%
16%
11%
8 9 10 11
33%
31%
24%
15%
8 9 10 11
1.05
0.94
0.71
0.64
0.94
0.71
0.64
8 9 10 11
74424 75608
71543
68312
8 9 10 11
tio
77%
47%
36% 33%
8 9 10 11
8 9 10 11
8 9 10 11
10y avg (TTM)
Debt/Equity 10y avg
Current ratio
Current
(TTM)ratio
Y's to10y
payavg
49.0 0.6 0.5 2.8 2.6 1.6
Checklist ratios
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Years
(TTM)
to pay debt with
FCF
FCF
(Free
10ycash
avg flow)
1.8 1.8 1.3 4%

Price/Sales 3.67 3.12 3.11 3.94
P/E 11.88 9.44 14.68 14.01
Price/Cash Flow 9.64 8.12 7.44 11.08
Price/Book 4.84 3.66 3.08 3.8

Revenue USD Mil 62484 69943.00 73723 77849
Gross Margin % 80.2 77.70 76.2 74
Earnings Per Share USD 2.1 2.69 2 2.58
Dividends USD 0.52 0.61 0.76 0.89
Payout Ratio % * 24.8 22.6 26.4 44.3
Shares Mil 8927 8593 8506 8470
Working Capital USD Mil 29529 46144 52396 64049

Tax Rate % 25 17.53 23.75 19.18
Net Margin % 30.02 33.1 23.03 28.08
Return on Assets % 22.88 23.77 14.77 16.58
Return on Equity % 43.76 44.84 27.51 30.09
Interest Coverage 166.65 96.16 59.6 64.06
Current Ratio 2.13 2.6 2.6 2.71
Quick Ratio 1.9 2.35 2.41 2.53
Debt/Equity 0.1 0.21 0.16 0.16

Operating income
Operating cash
Dividend
flow 10y growth
7% 3% 6% 3% 7% 15%
Current
4.25 5 5.79 7.22 6.88 9.4 8.61
18.22 36.74 29.73 30.23 41.8 29.75 26.08
12.02 15.48 13.74 16.54 17.53 23.31 21.35
4.23 5.68 6.83 7.35 9.08 11.32 10.34
TTM
86833 93580 85320 89950 110360 125843 134249
69 64.7 61.6 61.9 65.2 65.9 67.7
27886 28172 21292 22632 35058 42959 49323
32.1 30.1 25 25.2 31.8 34.1 36.7
22074 12193 16798 21204 16571 39240 44323
2.63 1.48 2.56 3.25 2.13 5.06 5.74
1.07 1.21 1.39 1.53 1.65 1.8 1.89
38.2 49 101.5 66.1 109.5 39.1 32.9
8399 8254 8013 7832 7794 7753 7720
10.61 11.23 9.58 9.05 10.32 12.41 14.48
32231 29080 33325 39507 43884 52185 54126
-5485 -5944 -8343 -8129 -11632 -13925 -13546
26746 23136 24982 31378 32252 38260 40580
2.69 3.16 2.93 3.62 4.3 4.33 —
68621 74854 80303 95324 111174 106132 —

20.65 34.12 14.95 8.4 54.57 10.18 11.09
25.42 13.03 19.69 23.57 15.02 31.18 33.02
0.55 0.54 0.46 0.41 0.44 0.46 0.5
14.02 7 9.08 9.75 6.63 14.39 16.37
1.92 2.2 2.69 3.33 3.13 2.8 2.57
26.17 14.36 22.09 29.37 21.37 42.41 43.83
21.79 11.16 14.81 16.36 11.49 24.13 26.08
47.6 24.7 16.89 11.42 14.35 17.27 19.95
2.5 2.5 2.35 2.48 2.9 2.53 2.8
2.31 2.3 2.22 2.37 2.74 2.35 2.65
1.92 2.2 2.69 3.33 3.13 2.8 2.57
0.23 0.35 0.57 1.05 0.94 0.71 0.64

30% 32% 22% 27% 26% 23% 44%
31% 37% 33% 33%
25% 19.3 % 4 11
8 5 11 11
11 6 11 8
11 16% 3.7
3.9 82%
64% 33% 45%
Capex
(TTM)
25% 18% 1.6 % 1.3 % 0.5 % 0.4 % 26.1
23.9 10.3 6.4 8.6 5.5
P/FCF
21.4 14.2 28.5 51.1
23.4 3.5 % 1.3 % 1.7 %
0.15 3.32 21.9 3.8 %
82% Excellent 149.7 77 58
-94% Sell

Stock ticker EA
98.53

Checklist ratios
Efficiency 75%
Financial strenght
GrowthGrowth
rates rates 57%
Checklist
Financialratios
strenght 78%
Efficiency growth
Efficiency
Valuation ratios
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%100%
Valuation inputs
19.4
1424
1275

742
Free cash flow
20.0 % 20.0 %
EPS Change?
15.0 % 15%
9.2 %
20.5 %

s afe ty

safety %
Margin of safety
0%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

P/E 0.0 0.0
P/B 2.2 2.3
P/S 1.6 1.6

Operating Income (mill) -544 -168
Net Income (mill) -677 -276
Earnings Per Share -2.08 -0.84
Free Cash Flow (mill) -153 261
Interest Coverage 0 0
Long term debt 0 0

Operating income per share -1.7 -0.5
Free cash flow per share -0.5 0.8
Capex 305 59
FCF margin 0.28 -1.55
STDV 59.23
Average FCF margin -17.71
FCF coefficient variation -334%
10y avg EPS 1.9

10y avg capex 305

5y avg capex 115
3yavg capex 119
Debt/Equity 0.0 0.0
Efficiency 1 2
FCF/Sales -4% 7%
CROIC -6% 10%
ROTC -23% -10%
ROE -23% -10%
Operating margin -15% -5%
Net margin -19% -8%

Dividend safety
Net income of cash flow from operation -445% -86%

EPS (Earnings per share) -2.08 -0.84
Sales/revenue 3654 3589
Number of years new high revenue/sales
Free cash flow -153 261
Dividend 0.0 0.0
Operating income -544 -168
Operating cash flow 152 320

Free cash flow (FCF) -235.1 % 29.4 %
EPS (Earnings per share) -205.8 % -221.8 %
Net income -205.2 % -220.9 %
Operating income -212.3 % -235.8 %

FCF/Sales -229.8 % 22.9 %
CROIC -225.6 % 17.2 %
ROTC -198.4 % -209.4 %
ROE -201.7 % -212.7 %
Gross margin 5.9 % 3.7 %
Net Margin -201.1 % -214.8 %
Historical valua
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
40
30
20
10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Earnings grow
25
20
15
10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
-5
Earnings grow
6000 2000
5150 4950 5022
5000 4845 1500
4515 4396 1224
4143
3797 945 898
4000 3654 3589 3575 1000
3000 500
62 84
2000 0
1 2 3 4 5
-3 6 7 8
-168
1000 -500
-544
0 -1000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Year number
Year number

8.00 7.1 1.00
0.90
6.00 0.80
4.00 3.5 3.3 3.3 0.70
2.7 3.1
0.60
2.00 0.50
0.2 0.3 0.0 0.40
0.00 0.30
8.00 7.1 1.00
0.90
6.00 0.80
4.00 3.5 3.3 3.3 0.70
2.7 3.1
0.60
2.00 0.50
0.2 0.3 0.0 0.40
0.00 0.30
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
-0.8 0.20
-2.00
-2.1 0.10
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
-4.00 0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Year number
Year number

1800 1692 2000
1600 1547 1585
1383 1500
1400 1260
1223 1130
1200 1067 972
1000
1000
615
800 712
500
600 261 218
105
400 320 277 324
0
200 152 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
-153
0 -500
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Year number
Year number

18 16.5 16.2 16.6 5
16 15.4 3.9
13.9 13.3 4
14 2.9
12.3 12.1 3 2.7
12 11.2 10.9 11.3
10 2
8 1
0.2 0.3
6
0
4 1 2 3 4 5
0.0 6 7 8
-1 -0.5
2
0 -2 -1.7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Year number
Year number
Efficiency
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
60%
40%
20%
0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
-20%
-40%
FCF/Sales CROIC
35% 40%
31% 34%
30% 29% 29% 35%
26% 26% 28%
25% 30% 27%
22% 24%
20% 25%
17%
20%
15%
15%
10% 7% 10% 9%
6% 10%
5% 3% 4%
5%
0% 0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
-5% -5%
-4%
-10% -10% -6%

40% 36% 37% 40%
32%
30% 26% 24% 30%
21% 25%
20% 21% 20%
20%
10% 4%
3% 10%
0%
0% 1% 2%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
0%
-10% 1 2 3 4 5
0% 6 7 8
-10% -5%
-20% -10%
-23%
-30% -20% -15%
Financial stren
70 6
61.1
60 5.0
5
50
4
40
3
30 2.3
2
20
1 0.8 0.8 0.7
10 6.9 5.2
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
60 5
50
4
40
3
30 2.3
2
20
1 0.8 0.8 0.7
10 6.9 5.2
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

4 40
3.52
3.5 35 32.32
30.84
3 2.82 30 26.74
2.5 2.41 25
2.15
2 1.8 20
1.64 1.52
1.5 1.23 1.21 1.31 1.34 15
1 10
5.79
0.5 5 1.9
0 0 1.23
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Checklist ratios &

12 200%
82% 95% 70%
10 100%
27% 30%
1%
0%
8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
-100%
6 -86%
-200%
4
-300%
2 -400%
0 -500% -445%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Year number
Year number

250% 340 336
201% 330 330
200% 330 325 325
320 316
150% 313 314
310
100%
62% 300
50% 33% 290
18% 14% 9% 8% 9% 6% 8% 8%
0% 280
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
50% 33% 290
18% 14% 9% 8% 9% 6% 8% 8%
0% 280
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Years: 1-3 4-7

Year Flows Growth

1 1,530 20%
2 1,836 20%
3 2,203 20%
4 2,556 16%
5 2,965 16%
6 3,439 16%
7 3,989 16%
8 4,500 13%
9 5,076 13%
10 5,725 13%
Terminal Year 5840


No Growth P/E 7
Basic P/E 16.9
5y average EPS 4.08
Fair Value P/E 18.4
Intrinsic Value 75
Normalized EPS 4.52
Revenue (TTM) 5022
Normalized EPS 1.92
Intrinsic Value 115

Discount Rate 11% 6
8
9
10

P/E valuation
5y average EPS 4.08
EPS growth rate 15%
Discount rate 11%

1 4.69
2 5.38
3 6.15
4 7.02
5 7.99
6 9.07
7 10.28
8 11.62
9 13.10
10 14.74
Intrinsic Value 101

Intrinsic Value 46

Number Of Years 10
Terminal value 212
Intrinsic Value 75

EA 5/29/2019

1 0
0 0
0 0
1 1
0 0
1 0
1 0
0
0
0
1
1
3 stage DCF
Buy/hold/sell? Hold Projected compounding

Median
Share buybacks Data

5y 1.4 % P/E
3y 1.2 % P/E Yield
1y 1.0 % P/B
P/S
EPS (Earnings per share) -79% EV/Operating income
Operating income -212% EV/FCF
FCF/price yield
Dividend yield
7
FCF covariation -334% Return on retained earnings
Financial strength
FCF/Sales 25.8 % Y's to pay debt with FCF
CROIC 19.0 % Debt/Equity
Gross Margin 3.6 % F-Score
Checklist ratios
Dividend safety
3 4 5 6
0.0 29.6 32.3 37.6
2.7 2.2 3.1 5.5
1.8 1.2 1.9 3.7
58.4 12.4 20.6 13.2
3 4 5 6
4143 3797 3575 4515
62 84 -3 945
76 98 8 875
0.23 0.31 0.03 2.69
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
336 313 316 325
7.1 6.5 6.4 8.7
277 324 712 1067
105 218 615 972
1.9 5.79 1.23 30.84
1.23 1.21 1.31 1.34
0.22 0.25 0.24 0.00
523 507 488 0

2379 2028 2035 2818
12.3 12.1 11.3 13.9
0.2 0.3 0.0 2.9
0.8 1.0 2.3 3.3
0.3 0.7 1.9 3.0
172 106 97 95
1.69 2.60 -205.00 1.03
3 4 5 6
6.9 5.2 61.1 0.0
5.0 2.3 0.8 0.0
0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3
1.9 5.8 1.2 30.8
3 4 5 6
3% 6% 17% 22%
4% 9% 24% 34%
2% 4% 1% 27%
3% 4% 0% 32%
61% 63% 62% 68%
1% 2% 0% 21%
2% 3% 0% 19%
3 4 5 6
27% 30% 1% 82%

0% 0% 0% 0%
62% 33% 14% 9%
3 4 5 6
0.23 0.31 0.03 2.69
2 3 4
1 1 1 1
4143 3797 3575 4515
1 2
105 218 615 972
1 2
1 1 1 1
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2 3 4 5
0 0 0 0
62 84 -3 945
2 3 4
1 1 0 1
277 324 712 1067
2 3 4
1 1 1 1
3y-10y 1y-6y 2y-7y 3y-8y

45.2 % -244.7 % 34.1 % 64.4 %
2.6 % 4.3 % 4.1 % 3.2 %
46.5 % -205.3 % -233.0 % 68.0 %
44.9 % -205.3 % -233.2 % 66.3 %
14.2 % 0.9 % 5.4 % 10.2 %
49.0 % -211.7 % -239.8 % 81.6 %
27.9 % 47.7 % 30.8 % 37.9 %
3y-10y 1y-6y 2y-7y 3y-8y

41.5 % -238.7 % 28.7 % 59.3 %
29.3 % -243.4 % 20.9 % 50.7 %
38.4 % -202.6 % -219.6 % 65.3 %
31.4 % -206.8 % -228.1 % 53.6 %
2.6 % 6.9 % 3.5 % 3.6 %
45.2 % -207.1 % -234.3 % 76.0 %
41.3 % -200.9 % -227.9 % 61.2 %
P/E
P/B
P/S
P/E
P/B
P/S
6 7 8 9 10 11
Earnings growth

Earnings Per Share
Dividend per share
6 7 8 9 10 11
Earnings growth
2500
2147
1434 2000
1224 1126
945 1010 1500
898 1156
967 1043 1019
1000 875
62 84 500
76 98 8
2 3 4 5
-3 6 7 8 9 10 11 0
-168 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
-500 -276
-677
-1000

25
22.0
20 17.9
15 13.4
11.5
10.0
10 8.3 8.7
7.7 7.1 6.5 6.4
25
22.0
20 17.9
15 13.4
11.5
10.0
10 8.3 8.7
7.7 7.1 6.5 6.4
5
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

6
5.1
1585 5 4.7 4.8
1428 1453
1260 4.0
1130 4 3.4
972 3.0
3
615 1.9
2
261 218
105 1 0.8 0.7
0.3
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
-1 -0.5

4.6 6
5.4 5.2
3.9 3.7 5.1
3.3 5
2.9 4.4
2.7
4 3.7
3.3
3
2.3
0.2 0.3
2
2 3 4 5
0.0 6 7 8 9 10 11 1.0 1.0
1 0.8
-0.5 0.5
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Year number
Year number
Efficiency
FCF/Sales
CROIC
ROTC
ROE
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
FCF/Sales
CROIC
ROTC
ROE
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
CROIC ROTC
40%
34% 31%
31% 30% 27% 25%
27% 28%
21% 20%
24% 20% 16%
22%
19%
10% 4%
2% 1%
10% 9% 0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
4%
-10%
-10%
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 -20%
-23%
-30%

50%
43%
28% 40%
25%
21% 20% 20% 22% 30% 26%
19% 20% 20% 21%
20%
10%
2% 3% 0%
1% 2%
0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
2 3 4 5
0% 6 7 8 9 10 11 -10%
-5% -8%
-20%
-19%
-30%
Financial strength
0.35
5.0 0.3 0.29
0.25 0.24 0.24
0.25 0.22 0.22
0.2 0.19
0.15
2.3 0.15
0.1
0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7
0.6 0.05
0.0 0.0 0 0 0
0.3
0.25 0.24 0.24
0.25 0.22 0.22
0.2 0.19
0.15
2.3 0.15
0.1
0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7
0.6 0.05
0.0 0.0 0 0 0
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

1200
33.93 1042
32.32 1000
30.84 1000 958
916
868
26.74 27.58
24.98 800
600 523 507 488

400
5.79 200
1.9 1.23
0 0 0 0
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

135% 100%
82% 95% 70% 90%
62% 66%
27% 30% 80%
1%
70%
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
60%
-86%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Year number
Year number

336 2500
330 330 2000 Net Income (mill)
325
1500 Free Cash Flow (mill)
316 314
313 312 1000
306
303 500
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
-500
-1000
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Year number
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
-500
-1000
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Year number
ods
8-10
13%
11%
35%
Value
1,378
1,490
1,611
1,684
1,759
1,839
1,921
1,953
1,984
2,016
7.00 0% 0.0% 0.0
7.65 1% 0.1% 0.5
8.30 2% 0.5% 0.5
9.8 8.95 3% 1.0% 1.0
0.0 9.60 4% 1.5% 1.5
10.25 5% 2.0% 2.0
10.90 6% 2.5% 2.5
1.10 11.55 7% 3.0% 3.0
12.20 8% ∆0.65 3.5% 3.5
1.10 12.85 9% 4.0% 4.0
0.90 13.50 10 % 4.5% 4.5
14.15 11 % 5.0% 5.0
14.80 12 % 5.5% 5.5
15.45 13 % 6.0% 6.0
16.10 14 % 6.5% 6.5
16.75 15 % 10.0% 10.0
17.40 16 %
17.90 17 %
18.40 18 %
18.90 19 %
19.40 20 %
19.90 21 % ∆0.50
20.40 22 %
20.90 23 %
21.40 24 %
15.45 13 % 6.0% 6.0
16.10 14 % 6.5% 6.5
16.75 15 % 10.0% 10.0
17.40 16 %
17.90 17 %
18.40 18 %
18.90 19 %
19.40 20 %
19.90 21 % ∆0.50
20.40 22 %
20.90 23 %
21.40 24 %
21.90 25 %

4.7 0% 0.0 0.00
5.4 0% 0.0 0.00
6.2 0% 0.0 0.00
7.1 0% 0.0 0.00
8.2 0% 0.0 0.00
9.2 0% 0.0 0.00
10.3 0% 0.0 0.00
11.5 0% 0.0 0.00
12.9 0% 0.0 0.00
14.4 0% 0.0 0.00
Sum 0.00
14.4 19.4 280.74 98.87
6 7.72 -2.15 27.6

1 1 1 1
1 0 1 1
1 0 1 0
1 1 0 0
1 0 1 1
0 0 0 0
1 0 1 0
1 0 1 0
1 0
1 1
1 0
1 1
0 0
0
0
156 101 37%
75 49 -31%
115 75 14%
99 64 0%
101 66 2%
46 30 -116%
75 48 -32%
99 64 0%
TTM 10y avg 5y avg

13.8 19.4 22.8
7.2 % 1.9 % 3.2 %
4.5 4.3 6.0
5.9 3.6 5.6
18.8 25.3 21.2
52.3
26.5
3.8 %
22.1
4.5 %
17.1
5.8 %
20.5
4.9 %
0.0 %
1.0 %
-5.75
9.55
TTM 10y avg 5y avg

29% 17% 27%
19% 18% 28%
31% 10% 22%
37% 14% 28%
74% 66% 72%
22% 11% 23%
43% 12% 21%

44.4 %
TTM 10y avg 5y avg
0.5 7.0 0.7
0.7 1.1 0.6
0.2 0.2 0.2
3.5 1.9 2.1
27.6 16.8 29.8
6
8
-2.15
TTM 10y avg 5y avg
135% 3% 75%
0% 0% 0%
8% 34% 8%
22% 9%
27.1 20.3 27.7 25.3 13.8
6.8 6.7 7.4 4.5 4.5
5.3 5.6 6.5 4.7 6.0
27.8 22.0 20.5 16.8 18.9
4396 4845 5150 4950 5022
898 1224 1434 1010 1126
1156 967 1043 1019 2147
3.50 3.08 3.34 3.33 7.13
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
330 314 312 306 303
10.0 11.5 13.4 17.9 22.0
1223 1383 1692 1547 1585
1130 1260 1585 1428 1453
32.32 26.74 33.93 24.98 27.58
1.80 2.15 2.41 2.82 3.52
0.29 0.24 0.22 0.19 0.15
958 868 916 1042 1000

3303 3617 4165 5487 6666
13.3 15.4 16.5 16.2 16.6
2.7 3.9 4.6 3.3 3.7
3.7 4.4 5.4 5.1 5.2
3.4 4.0 5.1 4.7 4.8
93 123 107 119 132
1.26 1.03 1.11 1.41 1.29

0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.5 7.0
0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.1
0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
1.8 2.2 2.4 2.8 3.5 1.9
32.3 26.7 33.9 25.0 27.6 16.8

26% 26% 31% 29% 29% 17%
27% 28% 31% 22% 19% 18%
25% 21% 20% 16% 31% 10%
36% 26% 24% 21% 37% 14%
69% 73% 75% 73% 74% 66%
20% 25% 28% 20% 22% 11%
26% 20% 20% 21% 43% 12%
44%
95% 70% 62% 66% 135% 3%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
8% 9% 6% 8% 8% 34%
7 8 9 10 TTM
3.50 3.08 3.34 3.33 7.13
5 6
1 1 1 1 1
4396 4845 5150 4950 5022
3 4
1130 1260 1585 1428 1453
3 4 5
1 1 1 1 1
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
6 7 8 9 10
0 0 0 0 0
898 1224 1434 1010 1126
5 6
1 1 1 1 1
1223 1383 1692 1547 1585
5 6 7
1 1 1 1 1
4y-9y 5y-10y Median

48.7 % 18.4 % 31.7 %
6.3 % 6.7 % 4.2 %
60.9 % 156.5 % -79.4 %
60.5 % 163.6 % -80.2 %
15.6 % 22.7 % 9.2 %
76.4 % -420.2 % -212.0 %
39.2 % 16.8 % 33.9 %
4y-9y 5y-10y Median

39.9 % 10.9 % 25.8 %
29.4 % -2.1 % 19.0 %
37.9 % 67.1 % -80.2 %
42.2 % 127.1 % -85.1 %
3.5 % 3.3 % 3.6 %
66.0 % -400.0 % -207.4 %
51.0 % 147.0 % -79.8 %
P/E
P/B
P/S
P/E
P/B
P/S
/revenue per share

ngs Per Share
cash flow per share
Value Per Share
end per share
2147
967 1043 1019
8 9 10 11
re
22.0
17.9
13.4
11.5
re
22.0
17.9
13.4
11.5
8 9 10 11
are
5.1
4.7 4.8
4.0
8 9 10 11
share
5.4 5.2
5.1
4.4
8 9 10 11
FCF/Sales
CROIC
ROTC
ROE
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
FCF/Sales
CROIC
ROTC
ROE
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
31%
21% 20%
16%
8 9 10 11
43%
20% 20% 21%
8 9 10 11
0.24
0.22
0.19
0.15
0.24
0.22
0.19
0.15
8 9 10 11
1042
1000
916
868
8 9 10 11
tio
0% 0% 0% 0%
8 9 10 11
8 9 10 11
8 9 10 11
10y avg (TTM)
Debt/Equity 10y avg
Current ratio
Current
(TTM)ratio
Y's to10y
payavg
16.8 0.2 0.2 3.5 1.9 0.5
Checklist ratios
1
0
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
Years
(TTM)
to pay debt with
FCF
FCF
(Free
10ycash
avg flow)
7.0 0.7 1.1 32%

Price/Sales 1.63 1.55 1.77 1.18
P/E 0 0 0 29.63
Price/Cash Flow 50.41 16.87 58.37 12.39
Price/Book 2.23 2.32 2.69 2.23

Revenue USD Mil 3654 3589.00 4143 3797
Gross Margin % 48.9 58.20 61.4 63.4
Operating Income USD Mil -544 -168.00 62 84
Operating Margin % -14.9 -4.7 1.5 2.2
Net Income USD Mil -677 -276 76 98
Earnings Per Share USD -2.08 -0.84 0.23 0.31
Dividends USD 0 0 0 0
Payout Ratio % * 0 0 0 0
Shares Mil 325 330 336 313
Free Cash Flow USD Mil -153 261 105 218
Free Cash Flow Per Share * USD -0.47 0.79 0.28 0.78

Tax Rate % 0 0 0 29.5
Net Margin % -18.53 -7.69 1.83 2.58
Return on Assets % -14.52 -5.77 1.46 1.86
Return on Equity % -23.09 -10.43 3.03 4.15
Return on Invested Capital % -23.42 -10.43 1.69 3.92
Interest Coverage 0 0 1.9 5.79
Current Ratio 1.64 1.52 1.23 1.21
Quick Ratio 1.4 1.29 1.04 1.04
Debt/Equity 0 0 0.22 0.25

Operating income
Operating cash
Dividend
flow 10y growth
4% -79% 9% -212% 34%
Current
1.87 3.68 5.25 5.55 6.47 4.74 5.95
32.31 37.61 27.06 20.3 27.72 25.29 13.82
20.63 13.21 27.81 22.03 20.46 16.78 18.85
3.1 5.46 6.77 6.7 7.35 4.47 4.48
TTM
3575 4515 4396 4845 5150 4950 5022
62.3 68.3 69.2 73.2 75.2 73.3 74.2
-3 945 898 1224 1434 1010 1126
-0.1 20.9 20.4 25.3 27.8 20.4 22.4
8 875 1156 967 1043 1019 2147
0.03 2.69 3.5 3.08 3.34 3.33 7.13
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
316 325 330 314 312 306 303
6.44 8.67 10.01 11.52 13.35 17.93 22
712 1067 1223 1383 1692 1547 1585
-97 -95 -93 -123 -107 -119 -132
615 972 1130 1260 1585 1428 1453
1.81 3.27 2.79 3.95 3.85 4.73 0
748 942 1934 2784 3513 4116 0

0 5.41 0 20.08 28.02 5.56 0
0.22 19.38 26.3 19.96 20.25 20.59 42.75
0.66 0.76 0.67 0.66 0.63 0.56 0.56
0.15 14.75 17.52 13.1 12.8 11.62 23.86
2.36 2.02 2.08 1.9 1.87 1.68 1.5
0.34 32.06 35.95 25.94 24.1 20.53 36.56
1.26 26.62 25.49 20.87 19.53 16.43 31.49
1.23 30.84 32.32 26.74 33.93 24.98 27.58
1.31 1.34 1.8 2.15 2.41 2.82 3.52
1.13 1.22 1.68 2.03 2.29 2.67 3.34
2.36 2.02 2.08 1.9 1.87 1.68 1.5
0.24 0 0.29 0.24 0.22 0.19 0.15

29% 17% 19% 18% 31% 10% 37%
14% 22% 11% 43%
12% 44.4 % 6 9
4 5 10 0
0 6 8 7
11 -334%
135%
3% 0% 0%
Capex
(TTM)
8% 34% 0.8 % 1.4 % 1.2 % 1.0 % 13.8
19.4 4.5 4.3 5.9 3.6
P/FCF
18.8 25.3 20.5 52.3
26.5 4.9 % 0.0 % 1.0 %
-5.75 9.55 22.1 5.8 %
66% Very good 98.53 99 64
0% Hold

Stock ticker BTI
34.50

Checklist ratios
Efficiency 88%
Financial strenght
GrowthGrowth
rates rates 57%
Checklist
Financialratios
strenght 33%
Efficiency growth
Efficiency
Valuation ratios
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%100%
Valuation inputs
15.6
5886
4960

4018
Free cash flow
7.0 %
EPS Change?
9.4 %
-6.3 %
49.1 %

s afe ty

safety %
Margin of safety
51%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

P/E 17.4 19.0
P/B 5.5 7.0
P/S 3.4 4.1

Book Value Per Share — 7.1

Total equity 14197
Capex 554 584
STDV 1.49
10y avg EPS 3.5

10y avg capex 554

5y avg capex 827
3yavg capex 953
Debt/Equity 1.3 1.0
Efficiency 1 2
FCF/Sales 16% 19%
CROIC 10%
ROTC 16% 17%
ROE 37% 34%
Net margin 19% 19%


EPS (Earnings per share) 1.36 1.44
Free cash flow 2295 2896
Dividend 0.9 1.1
Operating income 399 1078

Net income 8.0 % 44.3 %
Book Value per share -6.3 %

FCF/Sales 7.4 % 1.5 %
CROIC 14.9 %
ROTC 3.4 % 18.4 %
ROE 9.7 % 18.0 %
Operating margin 41.3 % 23.6 %
Net Margin 7.4 % 38.1 %
Historical valua
25
20
15
10
5
10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Earnings grow
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Earnings grow
30000 10000 9497
24492 25026 9000
25000 8000
20292 7000
20000
6000 5571
14883 15399 15190 15260
15000 14208 13971 13104 14751 5000 4653 4591 4653
4000
10000 3000
2061
5000 2000 1078
1000 399
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

20.00 18.3 2.50
18.00
16.00 2.00
14.00 1.52 1.56
1.41 1.45
12.00 1.50 1.33
10.00 1.19
1.06
8.00 1.00 0.92
6.00
20.00 18.3 2.50
18.00
16.00 2.00
14.00 1.56
1.45 1.52
12.00 1.50 1.33 1.41
10.00 1.19
1.06
8.00 1.00 0.92
6.00
4.00 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.50
1.4 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.0 1.7
2.00
0.00 0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

12000 10000
10295 9000
10000 8000
8725
8000 7000
6000
6000 5347 5000 4119 3936
4427 4436 4720 4610 3623 3715
4000
4000 3480 3464 3716 2896 2847 3024
2849 3000 2295
2000 2000
1000
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

12 6
10.7 10.9
9.9 4.9
10 5
7.8 7.8 8.0 7.9
8 7.1 7.5 7.5 4
7.0
2.9
6 3 2.5 2.5 2.5
4 2
1.0
2 1 0.5
0.2
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Efficiency
200%
180%
160%
140%
120%
100%
80%
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
FCF/Sales CROIC
45% 30%
40% 38%
25%
35% 31% 31%
30% 27% 20% 17%
25% 24% 24%
22% 22% 13%
19% 18% 15% 13% 13%
20% 16% 12%
10% 10%
15% 10%
10%
5%
5%
0% 0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

120% 70%
109% 63%
100% 60%
82% 50%
80% 71%
40% 37% 35%
60% 55% 51% 33% 32%
49%
30%
40% 37% 34% 36%
20%
13%
20% 10% 10% 10% 7%
3%
0% 0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Financial stren
10 8
8.7 8.8
9 7 6.5
8
6
7 6.3 4.9 5.0
5 4.8 4.6
6 4.1
4.8 4.5 4.8 3.9
5 4.3 4
3.9
4 3.3 3
3
2
2
1 1
0.0 0.2 0.0
7 6.5
8
6
7 6.3 4.9 5.0
5 4.8 4.6
6 4.1
4.8 4.5 4.8 3.9
5 4.3 4
3.9
4 3.3 3
3
2
2
1 1
0.0 0.2 0.0
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

1.4 30
1.2 1.17 1.13 1.08 1.13 1.13 1.09 25

1.04 1.04
1 0.9 20 17.76
0.78
0.8 0.73
15
0.6 10.44 11.06 10.32
9.7 9.24
10 7.78 8.53
0.4
0.2 5
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Checklist ratios &

Dividend safety 2.3273110345513
Net inc of cash flow from opera
2.5 6 800%
1.9323446815673 700%
1.7078355200469
2 1.6464487803031 1
1.6668079215752
1.6488989993606 1.5845191448408
1.5553687244775
7 1 6
1.4686803076427 8 600%
4 6
1.3704591554490
3 500%
1.5 1 1.1535490997268
8 400%
1 300%
200%
0.5 95% 89% 88% 91% 101%
83% 87% 84%
100%
0 0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

25% 2500
1991 1994 1982 1949 1908

20% 19% 18% 18% 19% 18% 2000 1870 1863 1865
17% 16%
15%
15% 13% 1500
11%
10% 9% 1000
5% 500
0% 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
5% 500
0% 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Years: 1-3 4-7

Growth Rate: 7% 6%
Year Flows Growth

1 5,307 7%
2 5,678 7%
3 6,076 7%
4 6,416 6%
5 6,775 6%
6 7,154 6%
7 7,554 6%
8 7,892 4%
9 8,246 4%
10 8,615 4%
Terminal Year 8787


No Growth P/E 7
Basic P/E 17.8
5y average EPS 5.67
Fair Value P/E 19.5
Intrinsic Value 111
Normalized EPS 14.10
Revenue (TTM) 25026
Normalized EPS 4.27
Intrinsic Value 241

Discount Rate 11% 6
8
9
10

P/E valuation
5y average EPS 5.67
EPS growth rate 9%
Discount rate 11%

1 6.21
2 6.78
3 7.39
4 8.05
5 8.75
6 9.49
7 10.28
8 11.12
9 12.02
10 12.96
Intrinsic Value 71

Book Value Growth Rate -6.3 %
Book value growth adjusted for share buybacks -7.8 %
Intrinsic Value 28

Estimated Book Value Growth -6.3 %
Number Of Years 10
Terminal value 115
Intrinsic Value 40

BTI 2/10/2020

1 0
0 1
1 0
0 1
1 1
0 1
1 1
0
1
0
1
0
3 stage DCF
Buy/hold/sell? Buy Projected compounding

Median
Share buybacks Data

5y -4.0 % P/E
3y -6.6 % P/E Yield
1y 0.0 % P/B
P/S
Book value growth -6% Operating income/EV yield
FCF/price yield
Dividend yield
6
Financial strength
ROTC 3.4 % Current ratio
Checklist ratios
Dividend safety
3 4 5 6
15.9 15.8 18.1 17.3
8.1 8.8 11.8 11.6
4.0 4.1 4.5 5.1
13.8 13.8 15.2 17.8
3 4 5 6
15399 15190 15260 13971
2061 9497 5571 4653
3095 3841 3904 3115
1.56 1.94 2.04 1.66
1.19 1.33 1.41 1.45
1982 1949 1908 1870
6.8 6.3 6.1 4.6
3464 4427 4436 3716
2847 3623 3715 3024
9.7 17.76 10.44 9.24
1.08 1.13 1.13 1.04
1.04 1.22 1.46 1.77
14037 14861 16937 15060

13497 12181 11601 8509
7.8 7.8 8.0 7.5
1.0 4.9 2.9 2.5
1.7 2.3 2.3 2.0
1.4 1.9 1.9 1.6
617 804 721 692
1.38 0.38 0.67 0.65
3 4 5 6
4.5 3.9 4.3 4.8
4.9 4.1 4.6 5.0
1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8
1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0
9.7 17.8 10.4 9.2
3 4 5 6
18% 24% 24% 22%
10% 13% 13% 13%
18% 23% 24% 19%
36% 49% 55% 51%
78% 78% 79% 78%
13% 63% 37% 33%
20% 25% 26% 22%
3 4 5 6
1.5 1.7 1.6 1.4
89% 87% 88% 84%
76% 69% 69% 87%
18% 18% 16% 19%
3 4 5 6
1.56 1.94 2.04 1.66
2 3 4
1 1 1 1
15399 15190 15260 13971
2
2847 3623 3715 3024
1 2
1 1 1 1
1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5
2 3 4 5
1 1 1 1
2061 9497 5571 4653
2 3
1 1 1 1
3464 4427 4436 3716
2 3
1 1 1 1
3y-10y 1y-6y 2y-7y 3y-8y

18.5 % 5.7 % 7.3 % 6.7 %
6.9 % -0.3 % -2.5 % -0.9 %
7.7 % 4.1 % 9.8 % 9.8 %
10.0 % 2.8 % 8.3 % 8.5 %
26.1 % -7.7 % -10.0 %
24.3 % 63.4 % 33.6 % 17.7 %
16.8 % 5.5 % 6.3 % 5.9 %
3y-10y 1y-6y 2y-7y 3y-8y

10.9 % 6.0 % 10.1 % 7.6 %
-5.2 % 2.2 % 10.9 %
-13.7 % 3.4 % 6.7 % 2.7 %
-17.1 % 6.6 % 19.2 % 14.8 %
0.6 % 1.8 % 0.5 % -0.8 %
16.3 % 64.0 % 37.1 % 18.7 %
2.9 % 3.1 % 11.1 % 9.4 %
P/E
P/B
P/S
P/E
P/B
P/S
6 7 8 9 10 11
Earnings growth

Earnings Per Share
Dividend per share
6 7 8 9 10 11
Earnings growth
9497 9437 9379 40000 37533
35000
30000
6470
5571 25000
4653 4591 4653 20000
15000
2061 10000
6032 6156
1078 3841 3904 4290 4648
5000 2713 2879 3095 3115
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

40 37.0
2.26
34.5
1.97 35
1.93
30
1.52 1.56
1.33 1.41 1.45 25
1.19 20
1.06
15
40 37.0
2.26
34.5
1.97 35
1.93
30
1.52 1.56
1.33 1.41 1.45 25
1.19 20
1.06
15
10 7.1 6.8 6.3 6.1
4.6 4.8 4.0 4.5
5
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

9352 4.5
4.1
4
7788 3.4
3.5
3
2.5 2.2 2.1 2.1
4119 3936 4369 2 1.9 1.9
3623 3715 1.6
2896 2847 3024 1.5 1.4
1.5 1.2
1
0.5
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

5
4.5
4.9 4.5
4 3.8
4.1 4.1
3.5
3.2 3 2.6
2.9 2.5 2.5
2.5 2.3 2.3
2.5 2.5 2.5 2.0
2 1.7 1.7
1.4
1.5
1.0 1
0.5
0.5
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Efficiency
FCF/Sales
CROIC
ROTC
ROE
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
FCF/Sales
CROIC
ROTC
ROE
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
CROIC ROTC
27% 60% 56%
50%
17% 40%
13% 13% 13% 30%

12% 23% 24% 24%
10% 10% 19% 21%
20% 16% 17% 18%
7%
6%
10% 6% 7%
0%
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

200% 185%
63%
180%
160%
140%
37% 39% 37% 120%
33% 35%
32% 32% 100%
80%
60%
13% 33% 32%
40% 25% 26% 25% 25%
7% 19% 19% 20% 22%
20%
0%
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Financial strength
3.5
7.0 3.03
6.5 3
5.6
5.0 2.5
4.8 4.9
4.6 2.02
4.1 3.9 2 1.77
1.46
1.5 1.28 1.22
0.97 1.04
1 0.72
1.5 0.66 0.64
0.5
6.5 3
5.6
2.5
4.8 4.9 5.0
4.6 2.02
4.1 3.9 2 1.77
1.46
1.5 1.28 1.22
0.97 1.04
1 0.72
1.5 0.66 0.64
0.5
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

60000
27.33 54245
52219
50000
17.76 40000
30000 26870
10.44 11.06 10.32
9.7 9.24
8.53 20000 16937 15060 15182
6.11 13771 14037 14861
5.92
10000 6675
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

100%
702% 87%
90%
80% 74% 76% 73% 74%
68% 69% 69% 66%
70% 63%
60%
50%
40%
30%
83% 89% 87% 88% 84% 91% 101% 20% 12%
59% 71%
10%
0%
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

40000
2292 2292
1994 1982 1949 1908 2051 35000 Net Income (mill)
1870 1863 1865
30000
Free Cash Flow (mill)
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Year number
10000
5000
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Year number
ods
8-10
4%
11%
25%
Value
4,781
4,609
4,442
4,226
4,020
3,825
3,639
3,425
3,224
3,034
7.00 0% 0.0% 0.0
7.65 1% 0.1% 0.5
8.30 2% 0.5% 0.5
6.1 8.95 3% 1.0% 1.0
4.5 9.60 4% 1.5% 1.5
10.25 5% 2.0% 2.0
10.90 6% 2.5% 2.5
1.10 11.55 7% 3.0% 3.0
12.20 8% ∆0.65 3.5% 3.5
1.00 12.85 9% 4.0% 4.0
1.00 13.50 10 % 4.5% 4.5
14.15 11 % 5.0% 5.0
14.80 12 % 5.5% 5.5
15.45 13 % 6.0% 6.0
16.10 14 % 6.5% 6.5
16.75 15 % 10.0% 10.0
17.40 16 %
17.90 17 %
18.40 18 %
18.90 19 %
19.40 20 %
19.90 21 % ∆0.50
20.40 22 %
20.90 23 %
21.40 24 %
15.45 13 % 6.0% 6.0
16.10 14 % 6.5% 6.5
16.75 15 % 10.0% 10.0
17.40 16 %
17.90 17 %
18.40 18 %
18.90 19 %
19.40 20 %
19.90 21 % ∆0.50
20.40 22 %
20.90 23 %
21.40 24 %
21.90 25 %

6.2 66% 4.1 3.71
6.8 66% 4.5 3.66
7.4 66% 4.9 3.61
8.1 66% 5.4 3.56
8.9 66% 5.9 3.51
9.6 66% 6.4 3.40
10.3 66% 6.8 3.29
11.1 66% 7.3 3.19
11.9 66% 7.9 3.09
12.8 66% 8.5 2.99
Sum 34.01
12.8 15.6 199.37 70.22
5 1.33 -2.64 5.9

0 1 1 1
0 1 1 0
1 1 1 1
0 1 1 1
1 1 1 0
0 1 1 1
1 1 1 1
0 1 0 0
0 0
1 0
1 0
0 1
1 0
1
0
69 52 36%
111 83 60%
241 181 82%
104 78 57%
71 53 37%
28 21 -61%
40 30 -10%
71 53 37%
TTM 10y avg 5y avg

12.9 15.6 13.6
7.8 % 10.1 % 15.9 %
0.9 7.7 6.4
3.2 4.2 4.1
9.1 13.9 12.4
9.9
8.4
11.9 %
10.4
9.6 %
12.6
8.0 %
10.2
9.8 %
4.4 %
4.4 %
1.08
31.12
TTM 10y avg 5y avg

31% 25% 28%
6% 13% 15%
7% 21% 25%
10% 49% 65%
83% 77% 77%
37% 30% 34%
25% 39% 59%

6.1 %
TTM 10y avg 5y avg
8.8 4.5 4.6
7.0 4.3 4.5
0.6 1.3 1.6
0.7 1.0 1.0
5.9 11.3 12.8
5
1
-2.64
TTM 10y avg 5y avg

1.9 1.6 1.6
71% 141% 207%
74% 66% 60%
11% 16% 15%
10% 7%
19.8 21.9 1.4 12.1 12.7
14.0 14.8 0.9 1.1 1.2
6.4 5.9 2.3 3.0 3.1
19.3 17.7 7.6 8.5 9.0
13104 14751 20292 24492 25026
4591 4653 6470 9437 9379
4290 4648 37533 6032 6156
2.30 2.49 18.27 2.63 2.68
1.52 1.56 2.26 1.93 1.97
1863 1865 2051 2292 2292
4.8 4.0 4.5 34.5 37.0
4720 4610 5347 10295 8725
4119 3936 4369 9352 7788
11.06 10.32 27.33 6.11 5.92
1.09 1.04 0.90 0.78 0.73
3.03 2.02 0.72 0.66 0.64
26870 15182 6675 52219 54245

8868 7516 9271 79120 84758
7.0 7.9 9.9 10.7 10.9
2.5 2.5 3.2 4.1 4.1
2.5 2.5 2.6 4.5 3.8
2.2 2.1 2.1 4.1 3.4
601 674 978 943 937
0.90 0.85 0.68 0.99 0.83

6.3 3.3 0.2 8.7 8.8 4.5
6.5 3.9 1.5 5.6 7.0 4.3
3.0 2.0 0.7 0.7 0.6 1.3
1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.0
11.1 10.3 27.3 6.1 5.9 11.3

31% 27% 22% 38% 31% 25%
12% 17% 27% 7% 6% 13%
24% 21% 56% 6% 7% 21%
82% 71% 109% 10% 10% 49%
77% 75% 75% 81% 83% 77%
35% 32% 32% 39% 37% 30%
33% 32% 185% 25% 25% 39%
6%

1.7 1.6 1.2 2.3 1.9 1.6
91% 101% 702% 59% 71% 141%
66% 63% 12% 73% 74% 66%
13% 15% 18% 9% 11% 16%
7 8 9 10 TTM
2.30 2.49 18.27 2.63 2.68
5 6 7
1 1 1 1 1
13104 14751 20292 24492 25026
3 4 5
4119 3936 4369 9352 7788
3 4 5
1 1 1 1 1
1.5 1.6 2.3 1.9 2.0
6 7 8
1 1 1 1 1
4591 4653 6470 9437 9379
1 1 1 1 1
4720 4610 5347 10295 8725
4 5 6
1 1 1 1 1
4y-9y 5y-10y Median

3.8 % 20.3 % 7.0 %
6.0 % 9.9 % 2.5 %
56.6 % 5.2 % 9.4 %
57.8 % 9.1 % 8.8 %
-6.3 % 41.5 % -6.3 %
-7.4 % 11.1 % 26.7 %
3.8 % 18.3 % 6.3 %
4y-9y 5y-10y Median

-2.0 % 9.4 % 7.5 %
15.4 % -11.4 % 6.5 %
19.4 % -22.8 % 3.4 %
17.2 % -29.6 % 12.2 %
-0.8 % 0.7 % 0.5 %
-12.6 % 1.1 % 21.1 %
48.9 % -0.8 % 8.4 %
P/E
P/B
P/S
P/E
P/B
P/S
/revenue per share

ngs Per Share
cash flow per share
Value Per Share
end per share
37533
6032 6156
4648
8 9 10 11
re
37.0
34.5
re
37.0
34.5
4.0 4.5
8 9 10 11
are
4.1
3.4
2.1 2.1
8 9 10 11
share
4.5
3.8
2.5 2.6
8 9 10 11
FCF/Sales
CROIC
ROTC
ROE
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
FCF/Sales
CROIC
ROTC
ROE
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
56%
21%
6% 7%
8 9 10 11
185%
32%
25% 25%
8 9 10 11
2.02
0.72 0.66 0.64

2.02
0.72 0.66 0.64
8 9 10 11
54245
52219
15182
6675
8 9 10 11
tio
73% 74%
63%
12%
8 9 10 11
8 9 10 11
8 9 10 11
10y avg (TTM)
Debt/Equity 10y avg
Current ratio
Current
(TTM)ratio
Y's to10y
payavg
11.3 0.6 1.3 0.7 1.0 8.8
Checklist ratios
0
1
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
Years
(TTM)
to pay debt with
FCF
FCF
(Free
10ycash
avg flow)
4.5 7.0 4.3 7%

Price/Sales 3.37 4.08 4.02 4.1
P/E 17.43 19.02 15.89 15.82
Price/Cash Flow 12.74 17.67 13.79 13.77
Price/Book 5.46 6.96 8.09 8.83

Revenue GBP Mil 14208 14883.00 15399 15190
Gross Margin % 71.7 75.10 77.8 78.2
Operating Income GBP Mil 399 1078.00 2061 9497
Net Income GBP Mil 2713 2879 3095 3841
Earnings Per Share GBP 1.36 1.44 1.56 1.94
Dividends GBP 0.92 1.06 1.19 1.33
Payout Ratio % * — 73.4 71.8 67.3
Shares Mil 1991 1994 1982 1949
Book Value Per Share * USD — 7.12 6.81 6.25
Operating Cash Flow GBP Mil 2849 3480 3464 4427
Cap Spending GBP Mil -554 -584 -617 -804
Free Cash Flow GBP Mil 2295 2896 2847 3623
Free Cash Flow Per Share * USD — 2.24 2.25 3
Working Capital GBP Mil 1190 1012 648 1044

Tax Rate % 27.55 28.44 31.56 15.7
Net Margin % 19.09 19.34 20.1 25.29
Return on Assets % 10.02 10.57 11.26 14.11
Return on Equity % 37.27 34.24 35.63 49.12
Current Ratio 1.17 1.13 1.08 1.13
Quick Ratio 0.65 0.61 0.59 0.58
Debt/Equity 1.28 0.97 1.04 1.22

Operating income
Operating cash
Dividend
flow 10y growth
3% 9% -6% 27% 6% 9%
Current
4.51 5.12 6.39 5.88 2.32 2.97 3.13
18.08 17.29 19.8 21.94 1.38 12.06 12.74
15.23 17.8 19.34 17.67 7.58 8.51 8.99
11.84 11.61 13.99 14.82 0.92 1.14 1.2
TTM
15260 13971 13104 14751 20292 24492 25026
78.7 78.3 76.9 74.7 75.2 81.4 82.7
5571 4653 4591 4653 6470 9437 9379
36.5 33.3 35 31.5 31.9 38.5 37.5
3904 3115 4290 4648 37533 6032 6156
2.04 1.66 2.3 2.49 18.27 2.63 2.68
1.41 1.45 1.52 1.56 2.26 1.93 1.97
66.8 76 69.2 66.4 76.2 10.9 73.2
1908 1870 1863 1865 2051 2292 2292
6.08 4.55 4.76 4.03 4.52 34.52 36.98
4436 3716 4720 4610 5347 10295 8725
-721 -692 -601 -674 -978 -943 -937
3715 3024 4119 3936 4369 9352 7788
3.22 2.89 2.61 2.55 3.2 3.69 —
1082 363 808 503 -1578 -3674 —

27.59 30.01 22.77 22.51 — 25.64 23.27
25.58 22.3 32.74 31.51 184.96 24.63 24.6
0.56 0.53 0.45 0.41 0.22 0.17 0.17
14.4 11.74 14.87 13.04 41.52 4.2 4.24
4.05 4.74 6.44 4.86 2.32 2.24 2.27
55.35 51.3 82.47 71.09 108.81 9.56 9.64
23.57 19.29 23.63 20.63 55.64 6.45 6.55
10.44 9.24 11.06 10.32 27.33 6.11 5.92
1.13 1.04 1.09 1.04 0.9 0.78 0.73
0.58 0.51 0.57 0.5 0.47 0.38 0.38
4.05 4.74 6.44 4.86 2.32 2.24 2.27
1.46 1.77 3.03 2.02 0.72 0.66 0.64

31% 25% 6% 13% 7% 21% 10%
49% 37% 30% 25%
39% 6.1 % 7 11
5 5 11 11
11 3 11 6
11 104% 1.9
1.6 71%
141% 74% 66%
Capex
(TTM)
11% 16% -1.6 % -4.0 % -6.6 % 0.0 % 12.9
15.6 0.9 7.7 3.2 4.2
P/FCF
9.1 13.9 10.2 9.9
8.4 9.8 % 4.4 % 4.4 %
1.08 31.12 10.4 8.0 %
58% Very good 34.50 71 53
51% Buy

Stock ticker THO
Stock price (USD) 71
71

Checklist ratios
Efficiency 50%
Financial strenght
GrowthGrowth
rates rates 100%
Checklist
Financialratios
strenght 78%
Efficiency growth
Efficiency
Valuation ratios
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%100%
Valuation inputs
15.0 15.0
307
249

169
Free cash flow
15.0 % 15.0 %
EPS Change?
15.0 % 15%
11.4 %
15.0 % 15%

s afe ty

safety %
Margin of safety
40%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

P/E 49.1 16.3
P/B 2.5 2.5
P/S 1.1 0.8

Debt/Equity — —
Long term debt 0 0

Capex 6 12
STDV 0.65
10y avg EPS 3.7

10y avg capex 6

5y avg capex 95
3yavg capex 128
Debt/Equity — —
Efficiency 1 2
FCF/Sales 3% 4%
CROIC 6% 14%
ROTC 2% 16%
ROE 2% 16%
Net margin 1% 5%


Dividend 0.3 0.3

Net income 47.4 % 19.1 %

FCF/Sales 12.2 % 1.2 %
CROIC 17.2 % 4.5 %
ROTC 36.4 % 5.4 %
ROE 36.9 % 7.2 %
Operating margin 36.2 % 3.2 %
Net Margin 25.9 % 0.9 %
Historical valua
60
50
40
30
20
10
30
20
10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Earnings grow
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Earnings grow
9000 8329 700
8000 7247 7172 600
7000
500
6000
392
5000 4582 400
4007 291
4000 3525 300
3085 3242 219
249
3000 2756
2277 200 176
141 142
2000 1522
1000 100
15
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

9.00 1.60
8.1
8.00 1.40
7.1
7.00 1.20
1.20 1.08
6.00 0.92
4.9 1.00
5.00 4.4
3.7 0.80 0.72
4.00 3.4 0.60
2.9 0.60
3.00 2.3 0.40
2.1
9.00 1.60
8.1
8.00 1.40
7.1
7.00 1.20
1.20 1.08
6.00 0.92
4.9 1.00
5.00 4.4
3.7 0.80 0.72
4.00 3.4 0.60
2.9 0.60
3.00 2.3 0.40
2.1 1.9
2.00 0.40 0.28 0.28
1.00 0.3 0.20
0.00 0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

600 450
544
400
500 467
419 350
400 300 289
341
250
300 206
248 200
200 149 150 121 119
145 109
101 115 119 100 88 81
100 49 43
50
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

180 14
157.2
160 12
136.7 135.3
140
10
120
100 8 7.4
86.5
80 75.6 5.5
66.5 6
57.1 61.2 4.1
4.7
60 50.1
43.0 4 3.3
40 27.7 2.7 2.6
20 2
0.3
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Efficiency
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
FCF/Sales CROIC
7% 25%
6%
6% 6%
5% 20% 19% 19%
5%
4% 14%
4% 4% 4% 15% 14%
4% 4% 13% 13%
3%
3% 3% 10%
3% 10%
2% 6%
5%
1%
0% 0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

30% 9% 9%
26%
24% 8% 7%
25% 7%
22% 7% 7%
6%
20% 19% 20% 6% 6%
18% 5%
16%
14% 14% 5%
15% 13% 4%
10% 3%
2%
5% 2% 1%
1%
0% 0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Financial stren
1.4 1.3 1.4
1.2
1.2 1.2
1 1
0.8 0.8
0.6 0.6
0.4 0.4 0.4
0.2 0.2
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1.2 1.2
1 1
0.8 0.8
0.6 0.6
0.4 0.4 0.4
0.2 0.2
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

3.5 3.27 800
720.94
3 700
2.34 2.23 600

2.5 2.2 2.3 2.28
2.05 500
2 434.91
1.71 1.66
1.56 1.51 400
1.5 323.66
300 241.77
1
200
0.5 100 45.56
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Checklist ratios &

8 6.8059299191374 6.7527308838133 140%
120%
7 7 1
5.9891366495140 120% 109%
5.2272727272727 1 5.9535951045385
5.3616352201257 103% 106%
6 9
3 100% 92%
4.3326345213137
5 3.7997903563941
7 80% 75%
3.6728395061728 80%
3.1818181818181
4 4 3
8 3.0557834290402 60%
3
2 40% 35%
1 20%
0 0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

35% 56
30% 30% 55 55
30% 27% 55
25% 24% 55
20% 54
20% 17% 54
17%
15%
15% 12% 12% 54
53 53 53 53 53
10% 8% 53
5% 53
0% 52
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
10% 8% 53
5% 53
0% 52
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

5y average free cash flow: 249
Years: 1-3 4-7

Year Flows Growth

1 287 15%
2 330 15%
3 379 15%
4 424 12%
5 475 12%
6 532 12%
7 596 12%
8 654 10%
9 716 10%
10 785 10%
Terminal Year 801


No Growth P/E 7
Basic P/E 18.9
Business Risk 1 Adjustment
5y average EPS 5.64
Fair Value P/E 20.8
Intrinsic Value 117
Normalized EPS 5.19
Revenue (TTM) 7172
Normalized EPS 5.86
Intrinsic Value 197

Discount Rate 11% 6
8
9
10

P/E valuation
5y average EPS 5.64
EPS growth rate 15%
Discount rate 11%

1 6.49
2 7.44
3 8.51
4 9.72
5 11.06
6 12.56
7 14.23
8 16.08
9 18.13
10 20.40
Intrinsic Value 108

Intrinsic Value 98

Number Of Years 10
Terminal value 230
Intrinsic Value 81

THO 9/13/2019

1 0
1 1
1 0
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1
1
1
1
0
3 stage DCF
Buy/hold/sell? Consider buy Projected compounding

Median
Share buybacks Data

5y 0.0 % P/E
3y 0.0 % P/E Yield
1y 0.0 % P/B
P/S
FCF/price yield
Dividend yield
10
Financial strength
ROTC 7.9 % Current ratio
Checklist ratios
Dividend safety
3 4 5 6
14.5 15.4 18.4 16.7
1.8 2.3 3.4 3.0
0.5 0.6 0.9 0.8
12.0 18.0 21.5 15.4
3 4 5 6
2756 3085 3242 3525
142 176 219 249
106 122 153 179
1.92 2.26 2.88 3.35
0.40 0.60 0.72 0.92
55 54 53 53
14.4 16.1 15.8 17.3
115 119 145 149
81 109 121 119
720.94 323.66 — —
2.23 2.20 2.30 2.28
— — — —
0 0 0 0
793 868 836 916
50.1 57.1 61.2 66.5
2.6 3.3 4.1 4.7
2.1 2.2 2.7 2.8
1.5 2.0 2.3 2.2
34 10 24 30
0.57 0.62 0.55 0.48
3 4 5 6
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
— — — —
2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3
720.9 323.7 — —
3 4 5 6
3% 4% 4% 3%
10% 13% 14% 13%
14% 14% 17% 19%
14% 14% 18% 19%
12% 12% 13% 13%
5% 6% 7% 7%
4% 4% 5% 5%
3 4 5 6
5.2 3.7 3.8 3.1
92% 103% 106% 120%
21% 27% 25% 27%
30% 8% 17% 20%
3 4 5 6
1.92 2.26 2.88 3.35
2 3 4
1 1 1 1
2756 3085 3242 3525
2 3 4 5
81 109 121 119
1 2
1 1 1 1
0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9
2 3 4 5
1 1 1 1
142 176 219 249
2 3 4 5
1 1 1 1
115 119 145 149
2 3 4 5
1 1 1 1
3y-10y 1y-6y 2y-7y 3y-8y

22.1 % 22.6 % 18.5 % 29.0 %
17.1 % 18.3 % 12.0 % 10.7 %
22.9 % 61.0 % 12.6 % 20.5 %
22.1 % 60.1 % 12.6 % 19.4 %
13.7 % 6.3 % 11.1 % 9.6 %
23.8 % 75.4 % 15.6 % 22.5 %
22.2 % 24.9 % 19.7 % 24.3 %
3y-10y 1y-6y 2y-7y 3y-8y

4.3 % 3.6 % 5.9 % 16.5 %
16.2 % 6.7 % 12.8 %
8.5 % 58.2 % 4.4 % 4.0 %
8.1 % 51.0 % 3.9 % 9.1 %
2.1 % 5.9 % 0.6 % 5.6 %
5.7 % 48.3 % 3.2 % 10.7 %
4.3 % 35.4 % 0.6 % 7.8 %
P/E
P/B
P/S
P/E
P/B
P/S
6 7 8 9 10 11
Earnings growth

Earnings Per Share
Dividend per share
6 7 8 9 10 11
Earnings growth
500
632
450 430
560
400 374
443 350
392 300 257
250 231
291 199
249 200 179
219 153
176 150 110 122
141 142 106
100
50 17
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

1.48 1.52 40
35.4 34.6
1.32 35
1.20
1.08 30 28.0
0.92 25 22.8
20.4
0.72 20 17.3
0.60 16.1 15.8
14.4
15 12.7 12.0
0.40
1.48 1.52 40
35.4 34.6
1.32 35
1.20
1.08 30 28.0
0.92 25 22.8
20.4
0.72 20 17.3
0.60 16.1 15.8
14.4
15 12.7 12.0
0.40
0.28 10
5
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

414 9
7.8
8
328 7
304 6.2
289 6 5.7
5.5
5
206 3.9
4
121 119 3 2.3 2.2
109 2.0
88 81 2 1.7 1.5
1 0.8
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

12
11.9 10.3
10.6 10
8.8
7.9
8.4 8
7.4 6.4
6
5.5 4.7
4.7
4.1 4
3.3 2.7 2.8
2.7 2.6 1.9 2.1 2.2
2
0.9
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Efficiency
FCF/Sales
CROIC
ROTC
ROE
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
FCF/Sales
CROIC
ROTC
ROE
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
CROIC ROTC
30%
25%
19% 19% 19% 25% 23%
19% 19%
14% 20% 17%
14% 17%
13% 13% 16%
15% 14% 14%
10% 13%
10%
5%
2%
0%
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

9% 6% 6%
8% 8% 5% 5% 5% 5%
7% 7% 5% 5% 5%
7%
6% 6% 4%
6% 4% 4%
5%
3%
3%
2%
1%
1%
0%
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Financial strength
0.3 0.28
1.2
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.4 0.09
0.1
0.05
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.4 0.09
0.1
0.05
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

400
720.94
350 338
300
434.91 250
200
323.66
150 134
241.77
100
123.04
58.18 82.39 50
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

100%
90%
120% 90%
109%
103% 106% 80%
92% 89% 92% 70%
80% 75% 60%
50%
40% 35%
42% 27% 29%
30% 27% 25% 25%
21% 19% 18%
20% 14%
10%
0%
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

500
55 450
Net Income (mill)
400
54 300
250
200
53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 150
100
50
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Year number
100
50
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Year number
ods
8-10
10%
11%
35%
Value
258
267
277
280
282
285
287
284
280
277
7.00 0% 0.0% 0.0
7.65 1% 0.1% 0.5
8.30 2% 0.5% 0.5
9.8 8.95 3% 1.0% 1.0
2.0 9.60 4% 1.5% 1.5
10.25 5% 2.0% 2.0
10.90 6% 2.5% 2.5
1.00 11.55 7% 3.0% 3.0
12.20 8% ∆0.65 3.5% 3.5
1.10 12.85 9% 4.0% 4.0
1.00 13.50 10 % 4.5% 4.5
14.15 11 % 5.0% 5.0
14.80 12 % 5.5% 5.5
15.45 13 % 6.0% 6.0
16.10 14 % 6.5% 6.5
16.75 15 % 10.0% 10.0
17.40 16 %
17.90 17 %
18.40 18 %
18.90 19 %
19.40 20 %
19.90 21 % ∆0.50
20.40 22 %
20.90 23 %
21.40 24 %
15.45 13 % 6.0% 6.0
16.10 14 % 6.5% 6.5
16.75 15 % 10.0% 10.0
17.40 16 %
17.90 17 %
18.40 18 %
18.90 19 %
19.40 20 %
19.90 21 % ∆0.50
20.40 22 %
20.90 23 %
21.40 24 %
21.90 25 %

6.5 30% 1.9 1.75
7.5 30% 2.2 1.81
8.6 30% 2.6 1.88
9.9 30% 2.9 1.94
11.3 30% 3.4 2.01
12.7 30% 3.8 2.03
14.2 30% 4.3 2.05
15.9 30% 4.8 2.07
17.9 30% 5.3 2.09
20.0 30% 6.0 2.11
Sum 19.73
20.0 15.0 299.99 105.65
5 7.08 -3.13 82.4

0 1 0 0
0 1 1 1
0 1 1 1
1 1 1 1
1 1 0 1
1 0 0 1
1 1 0 1
1 1 1 0
1 0
1 0
1 1
1 0
1 1
1
0
146 95 51%
117 76 40%
197 128 64%
125 81 43%
108 70 34%
98 64 28%
81 53 12%
117 76 40%
TTM 10y avg 5y avg

16.3 18.8 15.2
6.1 % 5.2 % 7.7 %
2.1 2.7 3.0
0.5 0.8 0.7
6.9 15.5 12.3
19.0
8.5
11.8 %
8.1
12.3 %
8.7
11.5 %
9.1
11.0 %
2.1 %
2.1 %
1.54
2.62
TTM 10y avg 5y avg

6% 4% 5%
14% 17%
13% 16% 21%
13% 17% 22%
13% 13% 14%
6% 6% 8%
3% 4% 5%
13.0 %
TTM 10y avg 5y avg
0.2 0.4
0.2 0.4
— 0.2 0.2
1.7 2.1 1.8
82.4 253.8 141.0
5
7
-3.13
TTM 10y avg 5y avg

6.8 4.9 4.9
42% 86% 91%
35% 30% 24%
24% 19% 22%
27% 32%
13.9 18.4 18.8 8.7 16.2
2.7 4.0 4.7 1.4 2.0
0.7 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.5
13.8 16.3 18.4 6.3 6.9
4007 4582 7247 8329 7172
291 392 560 632 443
199 257 374 430 231
3.74 4.88 7.09 8.14 4.36
1.08 1.20 1.32 1.48 1.52
53 53 53 53 53
20.4 22.8 28.0 35.4 34.6
248 341 419 467 544
206 289 304 328 414
— 241.77 58.18 123.04 82.39
2.05 1.56 1.51 1.71 1.66
— 0.28 0.09 — —
0 338 134
1081 1208 1483 1876 1835
75.6 86.5 136.7 157.2 135.3
5.5 7.4 10.6 11.9 8.4
4.7 6.4 7.9 8.8 10.3
3.9 5.5 5.7 6.2 7.8
42 52 115 138 130
0.71 0.74 0.54 0.52 0.93

0.0 1.3 0.4 0.2
0.0 1.2 0.4 0.2
— 0.3 0.1 — — 0.2
2.1 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.7 2.1
— 241.8 58.2 123.0 82.4 253.8

5% 6% 4% 4% 6% 4%
19% 19% 19% 14%
19% 17% 23% 25% 13% 16%
20% 22% 26% 24% 13% 17%
14% 16% 14% 14% 13% 13%
7% 9% 8% 8% 6% 6%
5% 6% 5% 5% 3% 4%
13%

4.3 5.4 6.0 6.0 6.8 4.9
80% 75% 89% 92% 42% 86%
29% 25% 19% 18% 35% 30%
17% 15% 27% 30% 24% 19%
7 8 9 10 TTM
3.74 4.88 7.09 8.14 4.36
5 6 7 8
1 1 1 1 1
4007 4582 7247 8329 7172
6 7 8 9
206 289 304 328 414
3 4 5 6 7
1 1 1 1 1
1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.5
6 7 8 9 10
1 1 1 1 1
291 392 560 632 443
6 7 8 9
1 1 1 1 1
248 341 419 467 544
6 7 8 9 10
1 1 1 1 1
4y-9y 5y-10y Median

22.8 % 22.1 % 22.3 %
18.6 % 20.8 % 17.6 %
25.7 % 23.1 % 23.0 %
25.1 % 23.0 % 22.6 %
11.7 % 17.6 % 11.4 %
26.0 % 23.6 % 23.7 %
28.6 % 26.4 % 24.6 %
4y-9y 5y-10y Median

3.5 % 1.1 % 3.9 %
8.4 % 10.6 %
9.9 % 7.3 % 7.9 %
12.8 % 6.9 % 8.6 %
4.4 % 1.3 % 3.3 %
6.3 % 2.4 % 6.0 %
5.5 % 1.8 % 4.9 %
P/E
P/B
P/S
P/E
P/B
P/S
/revenue per share

ngs Per Share
cash flow per share
Value Per Share
end per share
430
374
257
231
8 9 10 11
re
35.4 34.6
28.0
22.8
re
35.4 34.6
28.0
22.8
8 9 10 11
are
7.8
6.2
5.5 5.7
8 9 10 11
share
10.3
8.8
7.9
6.4
8 9 10 11
FCF/Sales
CROIC
ROTC
ROE
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
FCF/Sales
CROIC
ROTC
ROE
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
25%
23%
17%
13%
8 9 10 11
6%
5% 5%
3%
8 9 10 11
0.28
0.09
0.09
8 9 10 11
338
134
8 9 10 11
tio
35%
25%
19% 18%
8 9 10 11
8 9 10 11
8 9 10 11
10y avg (TTM)
Debt/Equity 10y avg
Current ratio
Current
(TTM)ratio
Y's to10y
payavg
253.8 — 0.2 1.7 2.1
Checklist ratios
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
0
Years
(TTM)
to pay debt with
FCF
FCF
(Free
10ycash
avg flow)
0.2 0.2 22%

Price/Sales 1.1 0.75 0.54 0.61
P/E 49.06 16.25 14.51 15.4
Price/Cash Flow 22.05 19.46 11.99 18.02
Price/Book 2.5 2.47 1.81 2.27

Revenue USD Mil 1522 2277.00 2756 3085
Gross Margin % 10 13.50 12.1 11.6
Operating Margin % 1 6.2 5.2 5.7
Earnings Per Share USD 0.31 2.07 1.92 2.26
Dividends USD 0.28 0.28 0.4 0.6
Payout Ratio % * 90.3 16 18.2 26.6
Shares Mil 55 53 55 54

Tax Rate % 26.72 35.78 30.37 32.63
Net Margin % 1.13 4.83 3.86 3.95
Return on Assets % 1.76 11.49 9.83 9.97
Return on Equity % 2.44 16.16 14.23 14.43
Current Ratio 3.27 2.34 2.23 2.2
Quick Ratio 2.44 1.62 1.41 1.45
Debt/Equity — — — —
Operating income
Operating cash
Dividend
flow 10y growth
18% 23% 11% 24% 25% 20%
Current
0.9 0.82 0.72 1 1.02 0.35 0.52
18.41 16.73 13.93 18.43 18.77 8.71 16.22
21.52 15.42 13.75 16.27 18.44 6.29 6.87
3.38 2.97 2.68 3.97 4.72 1.42 2.04
TTM
3242 3525 4007 4582 7247 8329 7172
13.1 13.3 13.9 15.9 14.4 14 12.7
219 249 291 392 560 632 443
6.8 7.1 7.3 8.6 7.7 7.6 6.2
153 179 199 257 374 430 231
2.88 3.35 3.74 4.88 7.09 8.14 4.36
0.72 0.92 1.08 1.2 1.32 1.48 1.52
26.4 28.2 27.8 25.2 20.1 16.4 34.8
53 53 53 53 53 53 53
15.77 17.28 20.4 22.79 27.99 35.4 34.63
145 149 248 341 419 467 544
-24 -30 -42 -52 -115 -138 -130
121 119 206 289 304 328 414
2.03 0.71 4.38 4.73 5.45 5.64 —
469 473 398 365 399 542 —

31.67 30.58 31.03 32.69 32.73 32.05 31.85
4.72 5.08 4.98 5.6 5.16 5.16 3.21
2.52 2.58 2.75 2.39 2.96 3.12 2.64
11.89 13.08 13.69 13.4 15.33 16.12 8.48
1.49 1.44 1.41 1.84 1.62 1.43 1.43
17.54 19.14 19.52 22.01 26.34 24.48 12.61
17.33 19.03 19.44 16.86 22.72 24.6 12.61
— — — 241.77 58.18 123.04 82.39
2.3 2.28 2.05 1.56 1.51 1.71 1.66
1.35 1.54 1.22 0.92 0.91 0.99 0.87
1.49 1.44 1.41 1.84 1.62 1.43 1.43
— — — 0.28 0.09 — —
6% 4% 14% 13% 16% 13%
17% 6% 6% 3%
4% 13.0 % 8 11
9 7 11 11
11 9 11 10
11 79% 6.8
4.9 42%
86% 35% 30%
Capex
(TTM)
24% 19% 0.4 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 16.3
18.8 2.1 2.7 0.5 0.8
P/FCF
6.9 15.5 9.1 19.0
8.5 11.0 % 2.1 % 2.1 %
1.54 2.62 8.1 11.5 %
76% Very good 71 117 76
40% Consider buy

Stock ticker TCEHY
357.35
M-Score (From Gurufocus.com) 0

Valuation ratios 7%
Checklist ratios
Efficiency 100%
Financial strenght
GrowthGrowth
rates rates 100%
Checklist
Financialratios
strenght 67%
Efficiency growth
Efficiency
Valuation ratios
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%100%
Valuation inputs
30.0 30.0
57761
46336

29092
Free cash flow Change?
20.0 % 20.0 %
EPS Change?
20.0 % 20%
25.0 % 25%
25.0 % 25%

s afe ty

safety %
Margin of safety
1%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

P/E 29.3 24.8
P/B 10.7 9.3
P/S 12.0 10.0

Dividend per share — —
Book Value Per Share — 0.4
Interest Coverage — —
Debt/Equity — —
Long term debt 0 0

Total equity 3350
Capex 821 2059
STDV 0.17
10y avg EPS 3.7

10y avg capex 821

5y avg capex
3yavg capex
Debt/Equity — —
Interest coverage — —
Efficiency 1 2
FCF/Sales 61% 52%
CROIC 306%
ROTC 52% 40%
ROE 54% 47%
Net margin 41% 41%

Dividend safety
5 year cumulative capex of 5y cumulative net inc

Dividend — —
Number of years of new high dividend

Net income 34.5 % 36.6 %
Book Value per share 39.8 %

FCF/Sales -9.3 % -7.1 %
CROIC -10.3 %
ROTC -14.5 % -8.7 %
ROE -8.9 % -5.0 %
Net Margin -5.9 % -4.3 %
Historical valua
60
50
40
30
20
10
30
20
10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Earnings grow
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Earnings grow
400000 100000
356418
350000 90000
312694
80000
300000
70000
250000 237760
60000
50690
200000 50000
151938 36596
150000 40000
102863 30000 26348
100000 78932
60437 20000 15069 17315
50000 28496
43894 9582 11785
12440 19646 10000 5876
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

10.00 1.00
9.0
9.00 8.2 0.90
8.00 7.5 0.80
7.00 0.70
6.00 0.60
5.00 4.3 0.50
0.40
4.00 0.40
3.1 0.29
3.00 2.5 0.30
10.00 1.00
9.0
9.00 8.2 0.90
8.00 7.5 0.80
7.00 0.70
6.00 0.60
5.00 4.3 0.50
0.40
4.00 0.40
3.1 0.29
3.00 2.5 0.30
1.7 0.16 0.19
2.00 1.1 1.4 0.20
0.6 0.9 0.09
1.00 0.10
0.00 0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

140000 127884 80000
120000 70000
106140106443
60000
100000
50000 46764
80000
65518 40000
60000 32326
45431 30000 26072
40000 32711 18293
24374 20000 14591
19429 10260 8518
20000 8398 12319 13358 10000 7578
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

40 37.2 10
35 32.7 9
8
30
24.9 7
25 6 5.3
20 5
16.0 3.9
15 4
10.9 2.8
8.4 3
10 6.5 1.6 1.9
4.7 2 1.3
5 3.1 1.0
1.3 2.1 1 0.6
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Efficiency
350%
300%
250%
200%
150%
250%
200%
150%
100%
50%
0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
FCF/Sales CROIC
70% 350%
61% 306%
60% 300%
52%
50% 250%
213%
40% 200% 179% 171%
33% 33% 31% 31% 31% 157%
30% 30%
30% 150% 136% 128%
21%
20% 17% 100%
10% 50%
0% 0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

60% 60%
54%
50% 47% 50% 47% 49%
41% 41%
40% 37% 40% 36%
35% 33% 34% 33% 33%
31%
29% 28% 27% 29%
30% 30%
24%
20% 20%
10% 10%
0% 0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Financial stren
0.35 0.4
0.3 0.3
0.3 0.35
0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3
0.25 0.2
0.2 0.25 0.2
0.2
0.2 0.2
0.15 0.1 0.1
0.15
0.1 0.1 0.1
0.1
0.05 0.05
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.3 0.35
0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3
0.25 0.2
0.2 0.25 0.2
0.2
0.2 0.2
0.15 0.1 0.1
0.15
0.1 0.1
0.1
0.1
0.05 0.05
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

3.5 60
3 2.88 49.94
50 47.09
2.5
40
1.95 34.5
2
1.67 1.77 1.61 30
1.51 1.47 24.98 24.83
1.5 1.25 1.23
1.17 1.07
20
1
0.5 10
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Checklist ratios &

25 90%
20.611950037285
80% 76%
18.399397017712 6 73%
20 6 17.252475247524
16.612791165392
16.308478749598 8 70% 65% 66% 64% 63% 63%
5 9 15.170970589072 61%
15.971400217607 7 60%
15
50%
40%
10
30%
5 20%
10%
0 0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

60% 9700
51%
50% 9600
9494
9500
40% 36% 9430
29% 29% 30% 9400 9341 9357
30% 25% 25% 9305 9293 9315
20% 9300 9236
20% 17%
9200
10%
10% 9100
0% 9000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
9200
10%
10% 9100
0% 9000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Years: 1-3 4-7

Year Flows Growth

1 55,603 20%
2 66,724 20%
3 80,069 20%
4 92,880 16%
5 107,740 16%
6 124,979 16%
7 144,975 16%
8 163,532 13%
9 184,464 13%
10 208,076 13%
Terminal Year 212237


No Growth P/E 7
Basic P/E 21.1
5y average EPS 6.41
Fair Value P/E 28.1
Intrinsic Value 180
Revenue (TTM) 356418
Intrinsic Value 484

Discount Rate 11% 6
8
9
10

P/E valuation
5y average EPS 6.41
EPS growth rate 20%
Discount rate 11%

1 7.69
2 9.20
3 10.97
4 13.04
5 15.44
6 18.23
7 21.46
8 25.19
9 29.47
10 34.39
Value in 10 years 1,032
Intrinsic Value 363

Intrinsic Value 314

Number Of Years 10
Terminal value 2,963
Intrinsic Value 1,044

TCEHY 2/10/2020

1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1
1
1
1
1
3 stage DCF
Company Quality Excellent Book Value I.V
Buy/hold/sell? Hold Projected compounding

Median
Share buybacks Data

5y -0.5 % P/E
3y -0.3 % P/E Yield
1y -0.1 % P/B
P/S
FCF/price yield
Dividend yield
10
Financial strength
Checklist ratios
Dividend safety
3 4 5 6
29.8 48.4 38.5 43.6
9.2 13.8 11.3 11.1
8.7 13.1 11.2 12.8
19.5 31.9 29.2 31.6
3 4 5 6
28496 43894 60437 78932
11785 15069 17315 26348
10203 12732 15502 23810
1.10 1.37 1.66 2.54
0.09 — 0.16 0.19
9293 9315 9341 9357
0.4 0.7 0.9 1.3
13358 19429 24374 32711
8518 14591 18293 26072
— 47.09 49.94 34.5
1.67 1.77 1.61 1.51
— 0.23 0.22 0.38
0 1521 1932 4587

3996 6614 8781 12071
3.1 4.7 6.5 8.4
1.3 1.6 1.9 2.8
1.4 2.1 2.6 3.5
0.9 1.6 2.0 2.8
4841 4839 6081 6639
0.72 0.97 1.06 0.99
3 4 5 6
0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2
0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2
— 0.2 0.2 0.4
1.7 1.8 1.6 1.5
— 47.1 49.9 34.5
3 4 5 6
30% 33% 30% 33%
213% 179% 171% 157%
39% 27% 24% 25%
41% 37% 31% 35%
65% 59% 54% 61%
41% 34% 29% 33%
36% 29% 26% 30%
3 4 5 6
16.0 16.3 18.4
76% 66% 64% 73%
8% 10% 7%
36% 25% 25% 20%
3 4 5 6
1.10 1.37 1.66 2.54
2 3 4 5
1 1 1 1
28496 43894 60437 78932
2 3 4 5
8518 14591 18293 26072
1 2 3
1 1 1 1
0.1 — 0.2 0.2
1 2 3
1 1 1 1
11785 15069 17315 26348
2 3 4 5
1 1 1 1
13358 19429 24374 32711
2 3 4 5
1 1 1 1
3y-10y 1y-6y 2y-7y 3y-8y

29.6 % 28.0 % 25.8 % 40.6 %
40.8 % 44.7 % 39.3 % 39.8 %
33.3 % 35.3 % 28.6 % 31.5 %
33.9 % 35.8 % 29.0 % 32.1 %
41.2 % 37.5 % 42.1 %
31.0 % 35.0 % 30.7 % 33.9 %
34.5 % 31.3 % 29.8 % 37.4 %
3y-10y 1y-6y 2y-7y 3y-8y

-7.9 % -11.5 % -9.7 % 0.6 %
-13.1 % -14.9 % -9.6 %
-10.7 % -13.9 % -14.1 % -15.1 %
-5.6 % -8.5 % -9.5 % -7.2 %
-5.0 % -2.4 % -2.6 % -3.1 %
-7.0 % -6.7 % -6.1 % -4.2 %
-4.9 % -6.2 % -7.3 % -5.5 %
P/E
P/B
P/S
P/E
P/B
P/S
6 7 8 9 10 11
Earnings growth

Earnings Per Share
Dividend per share
6 7 8 9 10 11
Earnings growth
100000
89031 85957
90000
78011 78719
80000 71510
70447
70000
60000
50690
50000 41095
36596 40000
26348 28806
30000 23810
15069 17315 20000 12732 15502
9582 11785 8054 10203
10000 5156
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

7
0.88 6.1
6
5 4.8
0.54 4 3.8
0.40 3 2.5
0.29
2 1.8
7
0.88 6.1
6
5 4.8
0.54 4 3.8
0.40 3 2.5
0.29
2 1.8
0.16 0.19 0.9
1.3
0.09 1 0.7
0.4 0.4
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

74136 73823 9
8 7.8 7.7
7
52382
46764 6 5.5
4.9
5
32326 4 3.4
26072 2.8
3
18293 2.0
14591 2 1.6
10260 8518 1.1 0.9
0.8
1
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

9.3 16
8.2 14 13.4
7.4
12 11.1 11.1
10
5.3
8 6.9
3.9
6 4.8
2.8
1.9 4 3.5
1.6 2.1 2.6
1.0 1.3
2 0.9 1.3 1.4
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Efficiency
FCF/Sales
CROIC
ROTC
ROE
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
FCF/Sales
CROIC
ROTC
ROE
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
CROIC ROTC
60%
306% 52%
50%
40% 39%
213% 40%
179% 171%
157% 30% 27%
136% 128% 144% 24% 25%
21%
19% 17% 18%
88% 20% 16%
80%
10%
0%
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

45% 41% 41%
49% 40%
36%
35%
41% 30% 30%
30% 29% 28%
34% 36% 26% 27%
33% 33% 25% 24%
29% 30% 25%
25% 25% 20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Financial strength
0.4 0.6
0.4 0.54
0.5 0.45
0.42 0.44 0.43
0.3
0.4 0.38
0.2 0.2
0.2 0.3
0.23 0.22
0.1 0.1 0.2
0.1
0.0 0.0
0.5 0.45
0.42 0.44 0.43
0.3
0.4 0.38
0.2 0.2
0.2 0.3
0.23 0.22
0.1 0.1 0.2
0.1
0.0 0.0
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

30000
26122
49.94
47.09 25000
19748
20000
34.5
15776
29.83
15000 12766
24.98 24.83
20.29
16.64 10000
7010
4587
5000
1521 1932
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

12%
76% 74%
73% 10% 9% 10%
67% 67% 10% 9%
65% 66% 64% 63% 63% 8%
8% 7% 7%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

100000
90000
9568 9579 Net Income (mill)
9536 80000
9494
9430
60000
9341 9357 50000
9305 9293 9315
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Year number
20000
10000
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Year number
ods
8-10
13%
11%
25%
Value
50,093
54,155
58,545
61,183
63,939
66,819
69,829
70,961
72,112
73,281
7.00 0% 0.0% 0.0
7.65 1% 0.1% 0.5
8.30 2% 0.5% 0.5
12.4 8.95 3% 1.0% 1.0
1.5 9.60 4% 1.5% 1.5
10.25 5% 2.0% 2.0
10.90 6% 2.5% 2.5
1.10 11.55 7% 3.0% 3.0
12.20 8% ∆0.65 3.5% 3.5
1.10 12.85 9% 4.0% 4.0
1.10 13.50 10 % 4.5% 4.5
14.15 11 % 5.0% 5.0
14.80 12 % 5.5% 5.5
15.45 13 % 6.0% 6.0
16.10 14 % 6.5% 6.5
16.75 15 % 10.0% 10.0
17.40 16 %
17.90 17 %
18.40 18 %
18.90 19 %
19.40 20 %
19.90 21 % ∆0.50
20.40 22 %
20.90 23 %
21.40 24 %
15.45 13 % 6.0% 6.0
16.10 14 % 6.5% 6.5
16.75 15 % 10.0% 10.0
17.40 16 %
17.90 17 %
18.40 18 %
18.90 19 %
19.40 20 %
19.90 21 % ∆0.50
20.40 22 %
20.90 23 %
21.40 24 %
21.90 25 %

7.7 9% 0.7 0.60
9.2 9% 0.8 0.65
11.1 9% 1.0 0.71
13.3 9% 1.2 0.76
16.0 9% 1.4 0.83
18.5 9% 1.6 0.86
21.5 9% 1.9 0.90
24.9 9% 2.2 0.94
28.9 9% 2.5 0.99
33.5 9% 2.9 1.03
Sum 8.28
33.5 30.0 1005.34 354.06
4 6.20 0 16.6

1 0 1 0
1 0 1 0
1 1 1 0
0 0 1 0
1 0 1 0
1 0 1 0
1 0 1 0
1 0 1 0
1 0
1 0
1 0
1 0
0 0
0
0
160 120 68%
180 135 72%
484 363 89%
362 272 86%
363 272 86%
314 235 84%
1,044 783 95%
362 272 86%
TTM 10y avg 5y avg

39.8 37.8 40.2
2.5 % 1.0 % 1.4 %
59.0 10.3 9.6
9.6 11.0 10.7
26.8 25.9 26.9
97.9
38.4
2.6 %
39.0
2.6 %
47.0
2.1 %
46.4
2.2 %
1.7 %
1.6 %
0.91
0.44
TTM 10y avg 5y avg

21% 34% 29%
88% 160% 129%
16% 27% 20%
24% 35% 30%
44% 57% 54%
25% 35% 31%
24% 31% 28%

22.4 %
TTM 10y avg 5y avg
0.3 0.2 0.2
0.4 0.2 0.3
0.5 0.4 0.4
1.2 1.6 1.3
16.6 31.0 26.9
4
6
0
TTM 10y avg 5y avg

15.2 17.2 18.2
67% 67% 68%
10% 9% 8%
27% 32%
42.3 52.8 30.5 37.4 38.3
9.7 13.8 8.2 7.9 8.1
11.5 15.0 8.8 9.0 9.2
25.0 33.1 25.5 25.2 25.7
102863 151938 237760 312694 356418
36596 50690 70447 78011 89031
28806 41095 71510 78719 85957
3.06 4.32 7.49 8.22 8.97
0.29 0.40 0.54 — 0.88
9430 9494 9536 9568 9579
1.8 2.5 3.8 4.8 6.1
45431 65518 106140 106443 127884
32326 46764 74136 52382 73823
24.98 24.83 29.83 20.29 16.64
1.25 1.47 1.17 1.07 1.23
0.42 0.54 0.44 0.43 0.45
7010 12766 15776 19748 26122

16691 23640 35855 45926 58049
10.9 16.0 24.9 32.7 37.2
3.9 5.3 7.4 8.2 9.3
4.8 6.9 11.1 11.1 13.4
3.4 4.9 7.8 5.5 7.7
13105 18754 32004 54061 #VALUE!
0.88 0.92 1.05 0.67 0.83

0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2
0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2
0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4
1.3 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.6
25.0 24.8 29.8 20.3 16.6 31.0

31% 31% 31% 17% 21% 34%
136% 128% 144% 80% 88% 160%
19% 17% 21% 18% 16% 27%
29% 28% 33% 27% 24% 35%
60% 56% 49% 46% 44% 57%
36% 33% 30% 25% 25% 35%
28% 27% 30% 25% 24% 31%
22%

16.6 17.3 20.6 15.2 17.2
63% 63% 67% 74% 67% 67%
9% 9% 7% 10% 9%
29% 29% 30% 51% 27%
7 8 9 10 TTM
3.06 4.32 7.49 8.22 8.97
6 7 8 9 10
1 1 1 1 1
102863 151938 237760 312694 356418
6 7 8 9 10
32326 46764 74136 52382 73823
4 5 6
1 1 1 1 1
0.3 0.4 0.5 — 0.9
4 5 6 7
1 1 1 1 1
36596 50690 70447 78011 89031
6 7 8 9 10
1 1 1 1 1
45431 65518 106140 106443 127884
6 7 8 9 10
1 1 1 1 1
4y-9y 5y-10y Median

38.4 % 23.4 % 29.7 %
40.2 % 38.9 % 40.5 %
40.5 % 37.7 % 34.6 %
41.2 % 38.4 % 35.2 %
39.6 % 38.6 % 39.7 %
36.1 % 35.1 % 34.4 %
40.4 % 34.3 % 34.4 %
4y-9y 5y-10y Median

-1.3 % -11.2 % -8.6 %
-4.4 % -14.1 % -11.7 %
-4.9 % -5.6 % -12.3 %
-1.9 % -2.8 % -6.4 %
-3.4 % -3.4 % -3.3 %
-2.9 % -2.7 % -5.5 %
0.7 % -0.4 % -5.2 %
P/E
P/B
P/S
P/E
P/B
P/S
/revenue per share

ngs Per Share
cash flow per share
Value Per Share
end per share
85957
78719
71510
41095
6
8 9 10 11
re
6.1
4.8
3.8
2.5
re
6.1
4.8
3.8
2.5
8 9 10 11
are
7.8 7.7
5.5
4.9
8 9 10 11
share
13.4
11.1 11.1
6.9
8 9 10 11
FCF/Sales
CROIC
ROTC
ROE
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
FCF/Sales
CROIC
ROTC
ROE
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
21%
17% 18%
16%
8 9 10 11
30%
27%
25% 24%
8 9 10 11
0.54
0.44 0.43 0.45

0.44 0.43 0.45
8 9 10 11
26122
19748
15776
12766
8 9 10 11
tio
10%
9%
7%
8 9 10 11
8 9 10 11
8 9 10 11
10y avg (TTM)
Debt/Equity 10y avg
Current ratio
Current
(TTM)ratio
Y's to10y
payavg
31.0 0.5 0.4 1.2 1.6 0.3
Checklist ratios
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
0
0
Years
(TTM)
to pay debt with
FCF
FCF
(Free
10ycash
avg flow)
0.2 0.4 0.2 30%

Price/Sales 12.03 9.97 8.65 13.1
P/E 29.33 24.8 29.83 48.41
Price/Cash Flow 19.19 18.67 19.54 31.94
Price/Book 10.72 9.34 9.15 13.75

Revenue CNY Mil 12440 19646 28496 43894
Gross Margin % 68.7 67.80 65.2 58.5
Operating Income CNY Mil 5876 9582.00 11785 15069
Net Income CNY Mil 5156 8054 10203 12732
Earnings Per Share CNY 0.56 0.87 1.1 1.37
Dividends CNY — — 0.09 —
Payout Ratio % * — — 8.9 —
Shares Mil 9236 9305 9293 9315
Book Value Per Share * USD — 0.36 0.43 0.71
Operating Cash Flow CNY Mil 8398 12319 13358 19429
Cap Spending CNY Mil -821 -2059 -4841 -4839
Free Cash Flow CNY Mil 7578 10260 8518 14591
Free Cash Flow Per Share * USD — 0.17 0.18 0.25
Working Capital CNY Mil 8594 12352 14320 15844

Tax Rate % 13.56 18.14 15.49 15.06
Net Margin % 41.44 40.99 35.81 29.01
Return on Assets % 37.69 30.2 22.03 19.28
Financial Leverage (Average) 1.44 1.65 2 1.82
Return on Equity % 53.71 47.46 40.63 36.5
Interest Coverage — — — 47.09
Current Ratio 2.88 1.95 1.67 1.77
Quick Ratio 1.59 1.83 1.34 1.45
Financial Leverage 1.44 1.65 2 1.82
Debt/Equity — — — 0.23
Operating income
Operating cash
Dividend
flow 10y growth
41% 35% 40% 34% 34%
Current
11.24 12.82 11.51 15.01 8.83 9.03 9.23
38.54 43.55 42.28 52.75 30.45 37.44 38.28
29.15 31.58 25.03 33.12 25.51 25.16 25.72
11.28 11.06 9.73 13.83 8.22 7.94 8.12
TTM
60437 78932 102863 151938 237760 312694 356418
54 60.9 59.5 55.6 49.2 45.5 43.9
17315 26348 36596 50690 70447 78011 89031
28.6 33.4 35.6 33.4 29.6 24.9 25
15502 23810 28806 41095 71510 78719 85957
1.66 2.54 3.06 4.32 7.49 8.22 8.97
0.16 0.19 0.29 0.4 0.54 — 0.88
9.8 8.2 9.8 10 8.3 — 9.8
9341 9357 9430 9494 9536 9568 9579
0.94 1.29 1.77 2.49 3.76 4.8 6.06
24374 32711 45431 65518 106140 106443 127884
-6081 -6639 -13105 -18754 -32004 -54061 —
18293 26072 32326 46764 74136 52382 73823
0.32 0.39 0.51 0.77 1.27 1.06 —
20419 25286 30972 47957 26706 14645 —

19.28 17.66 19.63 19.74 17.85 15.33 13.17
25.65 30.17 28 27.05 30.08 25.17 24.12
0.66 0.56 0.43 0.43 0.5 0.49 0.46
16.99 17.1 12.05 11.7 15.05 12.32 11.11
1.85 2.14 2.56 2.27 2.17 2.24 2.12
31.24 34.52 28.8 27.89 33.21 27.16 23.93
23.7 24.61 18.7 17.34 21.08 17.73 15.52
49.94 34.5 24.98 24.83 29.83 20.29 16.64
1.61 1.51 1.25 1.47 1.17 1.07 1.23
1.32 1.19 0.74 1.35 1.07 0.98 1.1
1.85 2.14 2.56 2.27 2.17 2.24 2.12
0.22 0.38 0.42 0.54 0.44 0.43 0.45

21% 34% 88% 160% 16% 27% 24%
35% 25% 35% 24%
31% 22.4 % 10 11
10 6 11 11
11 10 11 10
11 17% 15.2
17.2 67%
67% 10% 9%
Capex
(TTM)
27% -0.4 % -0.5 % -0.3 % -0.1 % 39.8
37.8 59.0 10.3 9.6 11.0
P/FCF
26.8 25.9 46.4 97.9
38.4 2.2 % 1.7 % 1.6 %
0.91 0.44 39.0 2.1 %
92% Excellent 357.35 362 272
1% Hold
Ticker Date F-Score Z-score M-score Interest coverage (TTM) Interest coverage 10y avg
TCEHY 2/10/2020 4.0 6.2 0.0 16.6 31.0
THO 9/13/2019 5.0 7.1 -3.1 82.4 253.8
BTI 2/10/2020 5.0 1.3 -2.6 5.9 11.3
EA 5/29/2019 6.0 7.7 -2.2 27.6 16.8
MSFT 3/29/2020 8.0 5.7 -2.5 20.0 49.0
TSLA 3/30/2020 5.0 2.3 -2.5 0.0 -19.0
MIDD 4/8/2020 6.0 2.4 -2.4 — 15.9
Financial strength
Debt/Equity (TTM) Debt/Equity 10y avg Current ratio (TTM) Current ratio 10y avg
0.5 0.4 1.2 1.6
— 0.2 1.7 2.1
0.6 1.3 0.7 1.0
0.2 0.2 3.5 1.9
0.6 0.5 2.8 2.6
1.9 1.8 1.1 1.4
1.0 0.7 2.0 1.7
al strength
Y's to pay debt with net inc (TTM) Y's to pay debt with net inc 10y avg
0.3 0.2
0.2
8.8 4.5
0.5 7.0
1.6 1.8
-14.0 -6.1
5.3 3.4
Years to pay debt with FCF (TTM) Years to pay debt with FCF 10y avg FCF (Free cash flow)
0.4 0.2 30%
0.2 22%
7.0 4.3 7%
0.7 1.1 32%
1.8 1.3 4%
12.5 -10.3 45%
5.6 3.4 16%
Growth rates
Sales/revenue EPS (Earnings per share) Book value growth Operating income
41% 35% 40% 34%
18% 23% 11% 24%
3% 9% -6% 27%
4% -79% 9% -212%
7% 3% 6% 3%
94% 17% 42% 27%
18% 19% 17% 19%
Operating cash flow Dividend 10y growth FCF/Sales (TTM) FCF/sales 10y avg CROIC (TTM)
34% 21% 34% 88%
25% 20% 6% 4%
6% 9% 31% 25% 6%
34% 29% 17% 19%
7% 15% 30% 32% 22%
-18% 4% -50% 5%
18% 11% 12% 9%
Efficiency
CROIC 10y avg ROTC (TTM) ROTC 10y avg ROE (TTM) ROE 10y avg Operating margin (TTM)
160% 16% 27% 24% 35% 25%
14% 13% 16% 13% 17% 6%
13% 7% 21% 10% 49% 37%
18% 31% 10% 37% 14% 22%
27% 26% 23% 44% 31% 37%
-36% -2% -20% -15% -61% 0%
13% 10% 12% 20% 20% 17%
Operating margin 10y avg Net margin (TTM) Net margin 10y avg Return on retained earnings
35% 24% 31% 22%
6% 3% 4% 13%
30% 25% 39% 6%
11% 43% 12% 44%
33% 33% 25% 19%
-36% -4% -39% 4%
18% 12% 12% 12%
Years of EPS Growth Y's of positive EPS Y's of revenue growth Y's of FCF Growth
10 11 10 6
8 11 9 7
7 11 5 5
6 9 4 5
4 11 8 5
2 0 10 3
9 11 10 7
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
Earnings stability
Y's of positive FCF Y's of dividend growth Y's of dividend paid Y's of oper. inc. growth
11 11 11 10
11 11 11 9
11 11 11 3
10 0 0 6
11 11 11 6
2 11 11 3
11 0 0 9
Y's of pos.operating inc. Y's of O.C.F growth Y's of positive O.C.F FCF covariation
11 10 11 17%
11 10 11 79%
11 6 11 104%
8 7 11 -334%
11 8 11 16%
2 5 4 107%
11 9 11 14%
Dividend safety (TTM) Dividend safety 10y avg Net inc of cash flow from operation (TTM)
15.2 17.2 67%
6.8 4.9 42%
1.9 1.6 71%
135%
3.7 3.9 82%
-36%
93%
Checklist ratios
Net inc of cash flow from operation 10y avg Dividend payout ratio (TTM)
67% 10%
86% 35%
141% 74%
3% 0%
64% 33%
435%
89% 0%
Dividend payout ratio 10y avg Capex of operating cash flow (TTM)
9%
30% 24%
66% 11%
0% 8%
45% 25%
60%
0% 12%
Share buybacks
Capex of operating cash flow 10y avg 10y 5y 3y 1y P/E (TTM) P/E 10y avg
27% 0% 0% 0% 0% 39.8 37.8
19% 0% 0% 0% 0% 16.3 18.8
16% -2% -4% -7% 0% 12.9 15.6
34% 1% 1% 1% 1% 13.8 19.4
18% 2% 1% 0% 0% 26.1 23.9
-893% -13% -6% -2% 0% -98.1
10% 0% 0% 1% 0% 9.2 23.3
P/B (TTM) P/B 10y avg P/S (TTM) P/S 10y avg P/operating cash flow (TTM)
59.0 10.3 9.6 11.0 26.8
2.1 2.7 0.5 0.8 6.9
0.9 7.7 3.2 4.2 9.1
4.5 4.3 5.9 3.6 18.8
10.3 6.4 8.6 5.5 21.4
13.4 18.5 3.5 7.4 35.5
1.7 4.4 1.1 2.6 8.6
Valuation metrics
P/operating cash flow 10y avg P/FCF (TTM) Shiller P/E P/Operating income (TTM)
25.9 46.4 97.9 38.4
15.5 9.1 19.0 8.5
13.9 10.2 9.9 8.4
25.3 20.5 52.3 26.5
14.2 28.5 51.1 23.4
76.5 88.2 -103.6 1067.4
21.4 9.8 14.7 6.4
Valuation metrics
FCF/market cap yield (TTM) Dividend yield (TTM) Shareholder yield (TTM)
2.2 % 1.7 % 1.6 %
11.0 % 2.1 % 2.1 %
9.8 % 4.4 % 4.4 %
4.9 % 0.0 % 1.0 %
3.5 % 1.3 % 1.7 %
1.1 % 0% 0.0 %
10.2 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Peter Lynch ratio (TTM) Warren Buffets ratio (TTM) EV/Operating income (TTM)
0.9 0.4 39.0
1.5 2.6 8.1
1.1 31.1 10.4
-5.7 9.5 22.1
0.2 3.3 21.9
-0.2 -0.3 1112.9
2.1 7.1 9.9
Company Quality Intrinsic Value
FCF/Enterprise yield (TTM) Total quality score Company quality Current stock price
2.1 % 92% Excellent 357.35
11.5 % 76% Very good 71.00
8.0 % 58% Very good 34.50
5.8 % 66% Very good 98.53
3.8 % 82% Excellent 149.70
1.1 % 32% Low 482.43
6.5 % 75% Very good 57.93
Intrinsic Value
Intrinsic value Buyprice Margin of safety Buy/Hold/Sell
362 272 1% Hold
117 76 40% Consider buy
71 53 51% Buy
99 64 0% Hold
77 58 -94% Sell
0 0 N/A Sell
123 86 53% Buy
I do not take any responsibility for any loss that might occur using this spreadsheet to choose stocks.
The spreadsheet will work as long as Morningstar and Gurufocus provide the data in the format they do today. Since the
unfortunately can't guarantee that the spreadsheet will work forever in the future if they stop providing the data or cha
Works best for stable and mature companies. Companies with irratic earnings and or with less than 10 years of financial
commodity and cyclical stocks. Stocks that we want to avoid anyway
The spreadsheet does not work well with banks and financial stocks
This sheet gives you the quantitative analysis of the stock, however you should also always look into the qualitative asp
I can’t guarantee that all of the calculations and formulas in this spreadsheet are 100% correct, typing errors and mistak
There is no guaranty that the financial data from a secondary source is 100% correct.

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The Warren Buffett Spreadsheet

Manual input of data next to yellow colored cells

Date of analysis 4/8/2020

Scores (max 100%) Score chart

10y average free cash flow

A ct ual margin of s afe t y vs require d margin of

30% Required Margin of

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Past 10 years valuation 1 2

Past 10 years data 1 2

Long term debt 207 0

10y avg free cash flow 220

10y avg capex 3

Checklist ratios past 10 years 1 2

Earnings and growth stability past 10 years 1 2

Growth rates %. Different time periods 1y-8y 2y-9y

Growth rates %. Different time periods 1y-8y 2y-9y

Earnings Per Share Dividend per share

Operating Cash Flow (mill) Free Cash Flow (mill)

Sales/revenue per share Operating income per share

ROE Operating margin

Current ratio Interest coverage

Checklist ratios &

Capex of operating cash flow Shares outstanding (mill)

Intrinsic Valuation methods

5y average free cash flow: 281

Years: 1-3 4-7

Terminal Growth Rate: 2% Discount Rate:

Shares Outstanding: 56 MOS:

Year Flows Growth

Terminal Year 625

Katsenelsons Absolute P/E Valuation

Classic Value investors valuation Year

Value of Future Dividends Today 0.00 Year

Year EPS*Growth rate

Book value growth + Dividend valuation

Projected Annual Compounding Return

Keynumbers used in watchlist Ticker Date

Stock score system: Growth rates Earnings stability

Intrinsic value 123 Katsenelsons absolute p/e

Buyprice 86 B.Graham Formula

Margin of safety 53% Classic Value Valuation

Total quality score 75% P/E Valuation

Company Quality Very good Book Value I.V

Buy/hold/sell? Buy Projected compounding

Share buybacks Data

253 519 556 711

95% 105% 82% 77%

3y-10y 1y-6y 2y-7y 3y-8y

3y-10y 1y-6y 2y-7y 3y-8y

Sales/revenue per share

Dividend per share Book Value Per Share

Free Cash Flow (mill) Free cash flow per share

123 121 127 3

Operating income per share Operating cash flow per share

Operating margin Net margin

18% 18% 18% 8%

Interest coverage Long term debt

Checklist ratios & Misc

Shares outstanding (mill) FCF vs EPS

Projected EPS Pay out ratio Dividends Disc. Divid.

Financial strength Valuation ratios Efficiency Efficiency growth