3 The evolutionary theory of technology

dynamics

3.1
Introduction
Traditionally, the process of technology development has been considered as an
activity that belongs to the domain of the natural sciences. Nowadays the process
of innovation and diffusion of technological developments is also studied in both
the economic sciences (economic modelling, dynamic economic theory, etc.) and
in the social sciences (sociology, environmental science, business administration,
etc.).
For the last twenty years the technology factor (by which is meant both process and
product innovations) and the theory on innovation and diffusion has received rene-
wed attention in society. Technology is considered as a potential answer to new
needs and new problems, like the reduction of environmental impacts, SDI and
energy supply. An impetus for the theoretical development was given by new way
of thinking on innovation and diffusion known as the evolutionary theory of tech-
nology dynamics. This chapter deals with the theory of technological innovations
in the broad sense and the new concepts used. The different ideas about the process
of innovation and diffusion are dealt with from a techno-centric perspective.
Sect. 3.2 sketches the historical context and provides an overview of the various
streams of analysis from the (neo)classical approach towards the development of
the present innovation theories and concepts. The main subject of Sect. 3.3 is the
concept of innovation and diffusion and the evolutionary theory of technology
dynamics. Sect. 3.4 contains a critical analysis of evolutionary theory, based on
methodological, theoretical and practical aspects. Sect. 3.5 deals with the relevan-
ce of technology dynamics for the transportation sector and finally in Sect. 3.6
observations and comments are made on the usefulness and relevance of technolo-
gy dynamics for this study.

3.2
The evolutionary theory of technology dynamics
3.2.1
The relevance of technology forecasting

It could be held that history has little to offer when it comes to the predictability of
technological developments. Many books and articles have been published which
have attempted to predict the future. Some of the authors, like Jules Verne, frank-

L. Kinzl et al., Trauma-Taschenbuch

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 1997
40 3 The evolutionary theory of technology dynamics

Iy acknowledged that they hardly used any serious methods. However, even scien-
tific approaches have sometimes been completely inaccurate.
In 1920, the Scientific American printed an editorial predicting the future, based on
the developments of the last 75 years. Although, in retrospect, that article seems to
make strikingly accurate predictions, two omissions can be distinguished; none of
the authors foresaw that only a month after publication of the article, radio tele-
graphy would be invented and neither did they predict that in the same year, sound
would be added to films. Both developments were important breakthroughs in
those days.
As early as 1900 a well-known futurologist like George Sutherland had predic-
ted the rise of telegraphy, the wireless clock and recording apparatus, whereas he
shut his eyes to aviation and space travel - that was stuff for dreamers and darede-
vils.
In 1937 the National Resource Committee in the United States published a report
entitled: Technological Trends and their Social Implications (NRC, 1937). This
report, that is still worth reading, sketches several technological trends which were
predicted to happen in a number of social sectors, including the transport business.
The Committee was wide off the mark when it predicted developments in avia-
tion I .
The description above could easily create the impression that the prediction and the
directing of technological innovations have no value. This would be the wrong con-
clusion; some of the predictions were indeed correct, many developments were
already foreseen in the past. Nowadays, there is more knowledge and insights into
the process of innovation. In current academic work this is the domain of techno-
logy dynamics. Technology is presently judged as a crucial factor in the economic
performance of firms, nations and even supra-national organisations 2. Technology
has become an essential factor in everyday life.
Several reports (E.U., 1992a; U.S., 1991; MIT!, 1992) estimate that a large
number of potential innovations will emerge in the near future. A further analysis
of the position of technology in society seems desirable.

3.2.2
Technology; a definition

Before attempting to define technology, it is important to stress that a distinction

has to be made between a technique and a technology. A technique is a concrete
artefact or handling activity. A machine, an engine based on the principle of com-

I A large barrier for the further development of aviation in those days was the frequent fog. More
than 25 research topics were mentioned. Some of them with a very adventurous character, such
as the use of bombs to dispel the fog. The study 'predicted', however, that visibility would
eventually be achieved, but the authors did not foresee that only a year later radar was inven-
ted which made further efforts redundant.

2 Technology policy is recognised as a formal policy issue in the recent NAFfA and WTO
agreements and is an important item in the negotiations on the trade deficit between the United
States and Japan.