Beyond the city of developing countries.

The new urban order of the 'emerging city'

Author(s): Marcello Balbo
Source: Planning Theory , Vol. 13, No. 3 (August 2014), pp. 269-287
Published by: Sage Publications, Ltd.
Stable URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.2307/26098680

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496098
2013
PLT13310.1177/1473095213496098Planning TheoryBalbo

Article

Planning Theory
2014, Vol. 13(3) 269­–287
Beyond the city of developing © The Author(s) 2013
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DOI: 10.1177/1473095213496098
order of the ‘emerging city’ plt.sagepub.com

Marcello Balbo
Università Iuav di Venezia, Italy

Abstract
Under the impetus of globalization, the city of emerging economies is experiencing profound
changes that are affecting its social and spatial structure. However, this new scenario seems to
have had little impact on critical thinking and related urban policies. This text looks at a number of
issues urban research needs to address as a result of the trends many such cities are experiencing
and the consequent shift from the social and spatial polarization of the past to a more composite
pattern. The article aims to help bridge the gap that still exists between urban studies on the
emerging city and planning theory.

Keywords
City, consuming middle class, developing countries, planning, research directions

Introduction
Cities in emerging economies1 have finally been recognized as the place where economic
and social opportunities are concentrated, be these interpreted as better income, housing,
health, educational services or greater personal freedom. Urban growth is no longer
judged as an obstacle to economic growth – quite the contrary: It is estimated that the 200
largest cities in the developing world account for approximately 10% of worldwide gross
domestic product (GDP) (McKinsey Global Institute, 2011), while the 10 largest Latin
American cities generate no less than 30% of the regional GDP.
The concentration of people in cities, mega-cities or – as they are referred to now –
meta-cities (those with 20 million plus inhabitants) is the destined outcome of a world
that has been changing at an unprecedented pace in the past 50 years, and even more
rapidly in the last 20 years. Although many cities are still the scene of vast inequality, the

Corresponding author:
Marcello Balbo, Dipartimento di Progettazione e pianificazione in ambienti complessi (DPPAC), Università
Iuav di Venezia, Santa Croce 1957, Ca’ Tron, 30135 Venezia, Italy.
Email: marcello.balbo@iuav.it

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270 Planning Theory 13(3)

city also remains the most desirable scenario in terms of social justice, or at least it is the
least undesirable. If the UN Human Development Index (HDI) is taken as a reliable indi-
cator of distributive justice, those countries that have the highest rate of urbanization also
record the highest HDI.
At the same time, however, the structural changes triggered by the forces of globaliza-
tion seem to have had little impact on planning theory and on policies for the emerging
city. Urban research largely remains centred around crucial but long-established issues
such as poverty, informal settlements and economy, access to infrastructure and services
and governance, somehow trapped in a ‘tyranny of terminology’ (Shatkin, 2008) that
hampers understanding of the common trends that most large emerging cities are under-
going, from the South-East to Latin America and, more recently but not less signifi-
cantly, the African continent.
The content of the majority of articles published in the last 10 years by the most
reputed journals on urban issues in emerging market economies as well as at the titles of
the scores of conferences organized on these topics show that most thinking continues to
lean towards the informal city and the ‘surprising’ capacity of urban actors to make the
city work and produce a larger share of the GDP.2
The recently released report State of the World’s Cities (UN-Habitat, 2012) suggests
the need to move away from the ‘dominant perspective, which is outdated and unsustain-
able on many grounds’3 but it hardly seems a real shift from past views or, what is more,
a useful way to capture the deep changes that the city has undergone in the last 20 years.
It is rather puzzling that the UN agency mandated specifically to provide ideas and direc-
tions to help governments and cities cope with their urban challenges continues to look
at the world under the outdated developed/developing countries dichotomy and to pro-
pose global strategies and world campaigns as if it had not yet internalized how much
more complex the world has grown in the past century and how little help, if any, such
generalizations can offer in policy terms.
On the contrary, though there is certainly no standard pattern, the distribution of
resources and allocation of power have radically changed on a global scale, prompting
new scenarios. The set of common trends detectable for the city in emerging economies
demands a new paradigm, based on the recognition of the different social, economic and
political conditions that have surfaced in the past two decades.
Until a thorough reappraisal is carried out concerning the ways the ‘city of developing
countries’ has been looked at since it made its début in scholarly research and policy
action, policymakers, international organizations and planners will not be able to com-
prehend the new order created by globalization, nor to correctly understand the demands
this progression creates and the best responses possible. The article is intended as an
initial contribution to such a reappraisal and rests on a speculative approach, rooted in a
number of common changes detectable at the urban level in the emerging world.
The first segment of this article provides a concise review of the way the ‘city of
developing countries’ has been looked at since it emerged as a research topic in the
1960s, as well as the different strategies proposed to cope with the problems inherent in
urban growth.
The second part speculates on the likely consequences some current major trends will
have on the emerging city, in the ‘global South-East’ (Watson, 2013; Yiftachel, 2006) as

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Balbo 271

well as in the similarly global South-West, including the city in many countries of sub-
Saharan Africa. To this end, the text focuses primarily on a number of issues, seen as the
main drivers of the new urban scenario:

• The changing geography of development and the shaping of new forms of urban
growth;
• Likely social, spatial and political outcomes following from the emergence of a
sizeable consuming middle class;
• New characteristics of the urban population;
• The declining role of international aid and its stakeholders.

As mentioned, this article is essentially a speculative contribution. As a consequence,

while fully recognizing the impact of the colonial and post-colonial relationships that
have dominated the urban history of most, if not all, cities in the South during a large
portion of the 20th century (Abu-Lughod and Hay, 1977; King, 2009; Le Bris, 1996),
the text insists that it is a mistake to continue looking at these cities mainly as the out-
come of the industrialized West’s political and cultural dominance. Rather, these cities
must be viewed as a new entry in the sequence of city-types that has unfolded over time
under different historical, economic, social and political conditions. Accordingly, the
final paragraph is an instigation to reorient critical thinking on the city of emerging
economies as it is shaped by globalization and the resulting aforementioned trends.

So far
Since the ‘discovery’ of the rapid urbanization trend in the developing world in the mid-
1960s, a wealth of interpretations about the role of the city in development have been
elaborated, from Hoselitz’s (1955) parasitic city to De Soto’s (2000) dead capital via the
World Bank (1991b) definition of the city as engine of growth. Policies have changed
accordingly, from those adopted in the 1950s and 1960s by different countries to contrast
and even reverse urbanization, to those more recent addressing the issue of how to regu-
larize informality, both in the economy and in the city fabric. In fact, the unexpectedly
rapid urban growth that took place following decolonization and the path to industrial-
ization, which many countries embarked on, quickly highlighted the inadequacy of urban
planning, management policies and standardized instruments conceived for completely
different social contexts, resources and institutional frameworks.
International organizations, UN-Habitat and the World Bank in the first place (though
in different ways and for different reasons) have long voiced the need for a recognition
of the inappropriateness of planning tools based on Western cities to the characteristics
of the ‘city of developing countries’, and called for the adoption of more adequate poli-
cies for the economic and cultural conditions specific to this city.
These policies were essentially based on the following arguments:

• Governments were not in a position to produce sufficient formal land to keep up

with the pace of urbanization, resulting in the diffusion of ‘illegal’ settlements and
the demand by the ‘invaders’ to be given security of tenure (Angel, 1983; Renaud,
1987; The World Bank, 1975);

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272 Planning Theory 13(3)

• There was a consequent need, therefore, to recognize the importance of the infor-
mal sector not only with respect to housing production but also as concerns the
provision of many of the services the city needs. This translated primarily into
upgrading and sites and services programmes as far as housing was concerned, as
well as related support programmes, if not into a complete legalization of the
informal economic sector (UN-Habitat, 2003; Van der Linden, 1986);
• The ‘local’ was to gain a pivotal role in the context of market internationaliza-
tion, and there was to be a parallel withdrawal of central governments from the
urban scene. This translated into the adoption of decentralization policies in prac-
tically all countries, a strategy sometimes bordering on an imposition by interna-
tional organizations (Bardhan and Mookherjee, 2006; Cochrane, 1983; McCarney,
1996);
• Given the limited resources available to local and national governments, in many
countries, the only investments carried out in the city were those of Official
Development Assistance (ODA) (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
Development (OECD), 2012);
• Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and community-based organizations
(CBOs), often with active gender-focused organizations, became important role-
players in the policy process. As a result, they increasingly took the role of ODA
executing agencies, while often becoming political as the agents of governments
or of the international community;
• Institutional capacities had to be significantly strengthened so as to attune local
authorities to the models and procedures required by good governance, sustaina-
bility and competitiveness. Strengthening institutional capacity embraced a host
of instruments, including master’s degree courses offered in several countries of
the North, international conferences, scientific publications and manuals (Asian
Development Bank, 2002; European Commission, 1993; GTZ (Deutsche
Gesellschaft fur Technische Zusammenarbeit), 1996);
• International consultancy acquired a central role in shaping directions for the urban
scene and became entitled to define the approach, methods and criteria that were to
be used in accordance with principles established by donors, the impact of which
often went well beyond the urban (Osmont, 1998). Upgrading, sites and services,
SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis, project cycle
and logical framework became part and parcel of any consultant’s know-how;
• Key to all this was the shift from ‘government’ to ‘governance’ that was indicated
as the only way to cope effectively with the difficulties the city of the South had
to face. Only by involving the stakeholders and building an accepted strategy
based on a shared city vision would it be possible to mobilize the public as well as
private resources necessary for the achievement of common goals (Osmont, 1998;
UN-Habitat, 2000; The World Bank, 1991a).

What lies ahead

As stressed in the introduction, in past years or so, the world scenario has experienced
dramatic changes that, among their other consequences, have undermined the research

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Balbo 273

and policy paradigms for what used to be the ‘developing world’. The remainder of the
article looks into the main elements of such changes, and the consequences they are
likely to have on the urban.

A new geography of development

Economic growth is changing the geography of development. Many countries that were
part of the developing world, though still classified as such by the World Bank, are, in
fact, now well out of the category (Human Development Report, 2013). Economic
growth has upgraded many countries beyond the low-income economies category, and
brought millions of people out of poverty, including in Sub-Saharan Africa.
All estimates indicate that, though likely at rates lower than in the past decade, many
so-called emerging economies are poised to continue experiencing high economic
growth rates. The HDI has also progressed for all countries but the Democratic Republic
of the Congo, Republic of Zambia and Republic of Zimbabwe, offering a significantly
more positive picture than the one posited by the trends in income, where divergence has
persisted (United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), 2010). Although huge dis-
parities continue to exist among countries as well as between rural and urban areas
(United Nations, 2012), this narrowing concerns 92% of the world’s population. Thus, it
is of little surprise that not only several higher middle income countries such as Brazil,
China, Mexico and South Africa have turned into donor countries, but that India has as
well, though still listed by the World Bank as a lower middle income economy.
This new economic and human development geography inevitably reshapes the inter-
national system of cities we are used to. Any world map of cities based on population
size and any indicator of economic attractiveness and strength show the rapidly expand-
ing role of cities located in the ‘global South’. According to the United Nations (2011),
out of the 21 mega-cities existing in 2010, only 6 were located in the North, including
Moscow, and only 5 northern cities were added to the list of the new 54 metropolitan
areas in the world with more than 5 million inhabitants (United Nations, 2011). Likewise,
the McKinsey Global Institute Cityscope (2011) estimates that of the 25 cities with the
highest 2007–2025 GDP growth in ‘predicted real exchange terms’, only 5 will be
located in the North (New York, London, Los Angeles, Moscow and Tokyo). Taipei,
Singapore and Hong Kong constitute peculiar cases, and the remaining cities are all in
China, with the exception of Delhi, São Paulo and Mumbai. However, there are scores of
emerging cities, including in Africa and the Middle East, that are expected to contribute
significantly to GDP growth in the coming years.
In the context of globalization and increasing transnational critical infrastructures
(TCIs) based interconnectedness, the new international system of cities will have far-
reaching consequences (Robinson, 2002). As a result of industrial delocalization, manu-
facturing is increasingly concentrated in urban areas of emerging countries generating
new local knowledge and innovation that could foster even further change at the local
level (Hurrell, 2012). Dozens of projects, the exchange of experiences and transfers of
expertise that do not rely on the know-how and technology used in the North already link
emerging cities in addressing common critical social, economic and environmental
issues. Although the new system of cities emerging from the exposure to global markets

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274 Planning Theory 13(3)

can produce undesirable imitation effects such as urban visions that reproduce success
stories that can in no way be replicated (the Singapore syndrome), the direct involvement
of city governments and citizens’ associations may also have beneficial consequences in
terms of management capacity and tools, as well as in attitudes towards urban govern-
ance (Bardhan and Mookherjee 2006; Stren, 2012).

The emerging consuming middle class

The remarkable performance of many economies, in some cases coupled with effective
resource distribution policies, has resulted in the emergence of a significant number of
more affluent urban residents who can gain access to goods and services from which
they were once excluded. The World Bank estimates that the middle classes tripled in
number between 1990 and 2005 (Ravaillon, 2009). As Ravaillon points out, defining
the middle class for developing countries is not easy, and the range of consumption per
capita between US$2 and US$13 per day (at 2005 purchasing power parity) referred to
is questionable. Similarly, for the purpose of his research, Kharas (2010) defines the
‘global middle class as those households with daily expenditures between US$10 and
US$100 per person in purchasing power parity terms’, but reminds that there are many
possible ways of looking at the middle class, first as an economic group or a social
designation.
In addition, the emergence of a new consuming middle class by no means implies that
in many regions of the South poverty has significantly declined or that for the majority
of households, income has increased in real terms. In fact, in some places, parading the
idea of an emerging consuming middle class may be part of political strategies con-
structed by a national finance-capital elite to buy off support from beyond their immedi-
ate class, and become a recognized player in global finance-capital.
By Ravaillon’s definition, in 2005, such a middle class represented half the total pop-
ulation, compared to one person in three in 1990, adding an extra 1.2 billion people to
those who have moved above the poverty line. Following Kharas’ estimates, between
2009 and 2030, the number of individuals who will enter the middle-class ranks will
grow more than six-fold in Pacific Asia, and more than three times also in sub-Saharan
Africa as well. This means that a significant number of families, mainly urban, will enter,
though perhaps only temporarily, the market for urban goods and services (Dadush and
Ali, 2012), including the subsidized goods and services such as housing, health and edu-
cation, which these families have so far been unable to access since they have not had the
required minimum level of income.
The addition of this new middle class to the urban social structure certainly represents
a major departure from the sharp dichotomy between rich and poor that has typified the
urban society of developing countries until now. However, it is an open question whether
the urban residents grouped within such a large range of incomes actually constitute a
homogeneous segment of the urban society bearing common values, preferences and
expectations. Nevertheless, those ‘in-between’ (Simone and Rao, 2012) have similar
aspirations in their way of life, expectations and consumption patterns. For this reason,
and to avoid possible misinterpretations, the text will refer to this group of people as
consuming middle class.

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Balbo 275

In India, where in the next 30 years, 500 million people are expected to swell the cur-
rent urban population, the consuming middle class is likely to record a dramatic expan-
sion, from 5% to 10% to 90% of the total population, adding well over 1 billion people
in only 30 years (Kharas, 2010). In China, this same category of the population will
increase from 43% to 76% of the population by 2025. But the consuming middle class is
rapidly increasing not just in the fast-growing Asian or BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India,
China and South Africa) countries. The 5% average annual GDP growth rate Africa has
recorded since the late 1990s, with six sub-Saharan countries among the 10 best perform-
ing economies in the world, has also produced the rise of a new middle class, equal to the
size of the consuming middle class in India (McKinsey Global Institute, 2012). The
incomes of 180 million people in Latin America continue to be below the poverty line,
but between 2002 and 2008, the percentage of the poor had declined from 44% to 33%
(Organización para la Cooperación y el Desarrollo Económicos/Comisión Económica
para América Latina y el Caribe (OCDE/CEPAL), 2011).
The emergence of a new segment in the urban social structure is bound to have major
effects, as is already manifest in cities as far apart as São Paulo, Johannesburg, Delhi, and
of course in scores of Chinese cities, where the emergence of the consuming middle class
is driving new demands on a number of aspects for urban life.
First and foremost, higher levels of consumption translate into a demand for better
housing in terms of size, equipment and quality of materials. In addition, well-serviced
and safe locations are in demand, separate and possibly well distanced from the rest of
the city, if not explicitly ‘gated’, leading to even greater spatial fragmentation. Since
accessing middle-class housing is the most tangible change of status, the new dwelling
will necessarily contain as many elements as possible to make such a change concrete
and visible.
New consumption patterns and the demand for new shopping spaces come hand-in-
hand with new housing. Once more, moving from the street market to the mall material-
izes and exhibits the attainment of a new prosperity, and the shopping centres increasingly
dotting the emerging city such as Metrocentro in San Salvador, Salvador, the Hypermarché
Sococé in Les Deux Plateaux at Abidjan, Ivory Coast, and the Jamana Future Park in
Dhaka, Bangladesh, one of the largest in the world, are manifest symbols of this.
An increase in mobility is the third major change resulting from the growth of the
middle class (Dadush and Ali, 2012). Larger incomes spark off the fast-growing motori-
zation of the population, which in turn generates traffic congestion and pollution. New
residential areas are often located far from where jobs are, producing new journeys to
work that significantly increase the existing amount of traffic. The typical response urban
policy has offered in the past to growing mobility, and continues to offer in many cities,
is to build new roads and highways. Yet, the increase in traffic also represents an oppor-
tunity to experiment new solutions, as has been the case in several cities, first and fore-
most Bogotá, Colombia, where the introduction of surface metro systems based on buses
running on dedicated lanes was coupled with the redesign of large sections of public
space, rendering the city better serviced, more efficient and significantly safer.
Finally, the emerging consuming middle class demands spaces and facilities where
they can spend their leisure time. Public parks, recreation and sport facilities have never
been part of the paradigm of the city in developing countries. Land occupation, irregular

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276 Planning Theory 13(3)

subdivisions and self-built housing could not afford to take them into account. With
population growth levelling off and income on the rise, public space is bound to gain
importance in informal settlements as well, all the more as they become the object of
legalization policies.
With the emergence of a new urban social segment, many of the urban issues that
have held the centre stage during the last 50 years will come to be seen under a different
perspective. Among them is the issue of how the consuming middle class will position
itself with respect to legalization policies advocated for and, in recent years, imple-
mented by different governments. The new middle class may object to corruption and
muddling through practices that have often allowed and even fuelled informality for
political purposes, or quite to the contrary, it may reinforce such behaviour, considering
political patronage, nepotism and informality an easier and even more effective way to
access the goods and services provided for by the public sector (The Economist, 2011).
Second, the consuming middle class tends to be more prone than the poor (as well as
the rich), to an orderly organization of society, with a well-established, recognized and
empowered government. If this is the case, it may not share the views of William Mangin
(1967) and John Turner (1972) on informality as the main driver to the making of the city
in ‘developing countries’, based on their work in the barriadas of Lima. Once full citi-
zenship is achieved through its new status, the consuming middle class is likely to be less
compliant on irregular tenure and informal settlements than was the case with the ‘dual’
city of the rich and the poor (Abu-Lughod, 1965).
In the same vein, contradictory with the emergence of this new social group appears
Davis’ (2006) view of the world being set to becoming a planet of slums, with rather
apocalyptic visions of ‘slum children becoming the street weapons of anti-state forces’.
It also questions Yiftachel’s (2006) more sophisticated idea of ‘gray space’, as does
Holston’s (1999) ‘insurgent planning’ and Roy’s (2005) understanding of the slum as an
innovative and distributive model for contemporary urbanism.
Yiftachel’s concern for the North-West domination in the production of planning
theory and planning policy design can only be shared. However, the two categories of
‘ethnicity’ and ‘homeland’, he suggests as possible focal points for the renewal of plan-
ning studies may fit with the many cities that have been affected by ethno-spatial poli-
cies. However, these categories are unlikely to fully grasp the impact of the current
changes on the many more cities of emerging economies are undergoing and that have
to do with the advent of a new claimant, the consuming middle class, on political, social
and spatial scenes. Similarly, Roy’s fitting emphasis on informality as a way to strive
for the ‘having access’ to the city, what she recalls as the ‘right not to be excluded’,
perhaps under the specific circumstances, a more appropriate notion than Lefebvre’s
‘right to the city’, has been stressed by many authors documenting the role of informal
settlements and the informal sector in the ‘city of developing countries’ (Devas and
Rakodi, 1995; Hardoy and Satterthwaite, 1989; Hugon, 1980; Jaglin, 1995; Skinner,
1982; Swan, 1980).4 This ‘demand for the city’ (Balbo, 2005) by the majority of irregu-
lar settlements and slums residents translates into the request of being recognized as
citizens having the right to access the advantages the city can offer, at best ‘active citi-
zens’ but unlikely the ‘activist citizens’ Isin (2009) refers to, as those who ‘engage in
writing scripts and creating the scene’. As already stressed, since public housing is

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Balbo 277

available to only a minority of the population, where it is provided, irregular settlements

are the only option the poor have, and they are only partially the result of what Roy
(2009b) sees as a ‘logic of deregulation’.
Even more questionable is the aesthetic value of informality championed by well-
known architects such as Rem Koolhaas (2007) who suddenly realizes how crucial the
informal sector is for making Lagos (Nigeria) a highly efficient city despite its many
problems, at the forefront of modernity, an ‘icon of West African urbanity [that] inverts
every essential characteristic of the so-called modern city’ or by the fashionable Caracas-
based Urban Think Tank of Alfredo Billembourg and Hubert Klumpner who, in the fave-
las and barrios of Latin America, find ‘the most ingenious, small scale design solutions’
(Urban Think Tank). In both cases, the strictly architectural perspective adopted ignores
the historic, economic, social and political drives at the core of why these two cities have
been planned and not planned (Fourchard, 2010), as have most, if not all, cities of the
once developing and currently emerging world.
The ‘destabilizing insurgent planning practices’ Miraftab (2009) views as the way to
challenge neo-liberal policies and the ‘insurgent’ urbanization Holston (2008) refers to
have in fact been for long time the way the urban poor have accessed the advantages of
the city in the South (Baross and Van der Linden, 1990; Turner, 1972; UN-Habitat,
2003), and still serve this purpose for large segments of the urban population. Excluded
from affordable land and housing by the market and zoning provided by the instruments
of formal planning, the urban poor have grabbed the land and put up their own settle-
ments where and how they have been able to. Irregular settlements and an ‘informal’
access to infrastructure and services have been the main feature of the ‘city of developing
countries’ since the middle of the last century, but as many authors have highlighted,
irregularity and informality can hardly be looked at from an insurgency perspective;
rather, they represent a state in which the majority of those who live under these condi-
tions only aim to leave behind (Hamdi, 1995; Navez-Bouchanine, 1997; Riofrio and
Rodriguez, 1980).
However, it is unlikely that this is the city the consuming middle class strives for and
the pattern of growth pattern it wants to see. Even more so than for other segments of the
urban population, the main objective of this rising middle class may turn out to be living
in a safe urban environment, where delinquency and unlawfulness in general are reduced
to a minimum by an ‘efficient’ police force and, though probably less urgently felt, an
effective justice system. The clean-up operation conducted on Rio’s Rocinha favela, in
the framework of the government’s objective to shape an image of the city as a peaceful
venue for the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Olympics, was no doubt well seen in the
middle-class neighbourhoods, while it did not in the least impinge on the exclusionary
policy that has presided over the city thus far. Uttara (Bangladesh) is the well-planned
square grid suburb to the North of Dhaka where the upper and consuming middle class
increasingly prefer to relocate from the congested capital. Salé El Jadida (Morocco);
Bumi Serpong Damai and Lippo Karawaci, on the outskirts of Jakarta (Indonesia); South
C, the middle-class residential estate in the southland area of Nairobi and Los Heroes
Tecamac in the municipality of Ecatepec de Morelos, one of the many new mass housing
developments produced in Mexico in the past 20 years are similar examples. Should this
be the political stance of the emerging consuming middle class, it will be in sharp

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278 Planning Theory 13(3)

contrast with the growing informality all estimates point to for many emerging cities in
the coming years.
However, a very different scenario can also be envisaged, within which the consum-
ing middle class looks at these new conditions as an opportunity to establish itself as a
social and political force fighting for an equitable distribution of resources and advocat-
ing for a more balanced development. The rising middle class will demand, and likely
fight for a more just allocation of resources. This would amount not only to defending the
improved conditions the consuming middle class has at last gained in terms of housing,
infrastructure and services but also to the recognition of its right to full citizenship, in
other words, the extension of the ‘right to the city’ to parts of the urban population that
has been denied it so far.

The land issue

Although many cities of the South are expanding at a much more reduced rate than in the
past, access to land remains a central urban issue. According to UN-Habitat, most recent
estimates, through upgrading and policies preventing the formation of new informal
settlements ‘developing countries lifted an annual 22 million people out of slum condi-
tions between the year 2000 and 2010’, a result far above the well-known Millennium
Development Goals (MDGs) Target 11 aiming to improve the lives of at least 100 mil-
lion slum dwellers by 2020. Although in absolute terms, the number of slum dwellers
actually grew by some 50 million worldwide in the same period, and will reach approxi-
mately 900 million by 2020 (UN-Habitat, 2011), this achievement goes well beyond any
expectation held only a few years ago when the same agency was forecasting a number
of slum dwellers between 1.5 and 1.7 billion, depending on the estimate (UN-Habitat,
2003). However, such a positive outcome largely results from some rather amazing
changes that have been introduced in the criteria used to define slums: ‘security of ten-
ure’ was dropped as too difficult to measure and ‘shared toilet’ no longer accounted for a
slum condition. As it has ironically been stressed, UN statisticians succeeded overnight
where governments, aid agencies, finance institutions and NGOs had failed for decades,
pulling out of their miserable housing conditions tens of millions of slum dwellers.
‘Irregular’ and ‘regularized’ settlements remain a distinguishing feature of the cities
in emerging countries, which will most likely be long-lasting. Even in those cities where
growth has slowed down, irregular settlements have consolidated and expanded. In some
cities, local authorities continue to carry out evictions in the name of development, while
the liberalization of land markets, together with regularization programmes, advocated
for the sake of poverty reduction, often convert into the displacement of low-income
households living in formerly irregular but centrally located settlements subject to high
market pressure (Durand-Lasserve, 2007).
The emergence of the middle class will inevitably have major effects on the land and
housing policies governments follow. Although in several countries, particularly of Latin
America, the mobilization of the poor has been critical in providing a solid base for
democracy (Fernandes, 2011), this new social segment constitutes a pillar for political
stability and is a fundamental actor in strengthening the democratization process under
way in many emerging countries. Creating possibilities for asset accumulation is one of

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Balbo 279

the paths on which any government wishing to gain the support of the middle class has
to embark on, with land and particularly housing representing the most immediately
accessible assets.
However, as a response to housing deficits, land regularization is quite distinct from
housing production, and bears different political consequences. Regularizing the irregular
settlements built in the past decades implies a distributional shift in favour of the emerg-
ing consuming class as well as of lower-income families who do not yet belong to it. On
the contrary, the production of public or subsidized social housing implies catering to
higher incomes and significantly lower distributive contents. Housing policies based on
new housing are thus quite different politically from policies addressing the issue of regu-
larization, their primary goal being the construction of a new political coalition in response
to the consequences of globalization, through the inclusion of a consuming middle class
that perceives home ownership as a crucial step in their social ascent and recognition.5
With the formation of a middle class, the debate on irregular settlements has to be
framed against a very different social and political background. The lobbying capacity of
real-estate developers, banks, notaries, land surveyors and the ideological pressure of
international aid is of utmost importance. However, whether land policies will foster
allocating individual property titles against fostering the spatial and social integration of
irregular settlements no longer appears as only an economic option, but as an essentially
political one. The right to property, on the one hand, shapes, and on the other, is the con-
sequence of, a political idea in the name of which evicting is fully legitimate; while
protecting irregular possession from eviction focuses primarily on a fundamental and
universally recognized right, namely, the right to housing. The way the emerging con-
suming middle class will position itself – and will most likely be divided – with regard
to the issue of the right to property will be crucial to which economic interests and politi-
cal scenario will prevail.

What urban population

Asia and Latin America are the world’s fastest ageing regions, but Algeria, Morocco and
Tunisia in the Mediterranean as well will soon have to cope with rising dependency
ratios. In Sub-Saharan Africa, though life expectancy continues to be significantly lower
than in the rest of the world, it is extending significantly to reach 68 (up from 55 in
2005–2010) by mid-century, and the older population is expected to grow more than
twofold between 2000 and 2030. At the same time, the dependency ratio (the ratio of
people under age 15 and 65 years or over to those of the working ages (15–64) will more
than triple in Latin America (United Nations, 2011). Ageing will certainly have major
consequences on the emerging city from both the socio-economic and spatial points of
view, but paradoxically, planning theory and urban policies have barely considered these
aspects so far (Montgomery et al., 2003).
Second, the creation of productive jobs in the formal economy is as urgent as ever, but
the prospects provided by the current financial crisis are unpromising. In fact, in many
countries, the informal sector is poised to keep growing. In Latin America, where the infor-
mal sector grew from 59% to 64% between 1990 and 2008, micro-enterprises continue to
be crucial in providing jobs and income, particularly in urban area (Tokman, 2011).6

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280 Planning Theory 13(3)

Third, there will be a massive entrance of women into the ranks of the workforce eve-
rywhere. The rate of female participation in the labour force in the emerging economies
as a whole is over 50%, but there are pockets of the world where this rate stands at 30%
as in South Asia (International Labour Organization (ILO), 2010), or at slightly over 20%,
as in North Africa and the Middle East. The increasing engagement of women in labour
markets will have an enormous impact on urban society and the functioning of the city, in
terms of both gender relationships and the urban services that will have to be provided.
Globalization has already spurred the arrival of international migrants in a growing
number of cities in emerging countries, giving way to new opportunities as well as prob-
lems for governments and society. In most cities, migrants have no access either to the
formal housing market or to social housing where it is provided for. As a response,
migrants tend to concentrate on areas where they can find cheap accommodation such as
irregular settlements. Thus, ethnic enclaves, generally more so than those ‘kinship-based’,
often add to the increasingly fragmented space of the emerging city, reproducing tradi-
tional systems of living, practices and hierarchies and embracing practices of resistance
and invisibility, which only fuel misunderstandings and tensions with local residents.
The presence of a foreign workforce and their families also drives the demand for
specific services apt to respond to needs that may be different from those of the local
residents, which may have therefore been largely neglected so far. Cultural diversity
evinces the complexity of the encounter between the institutionally structured space of
migration, the public space defined by streets and shops and the different social realities
that inhabit these places (Balbo, 2005). Remittances from migrants also play a crucial
role in sending countries, though their impact is generally more widespread, since the
majority of flow goes to rural areas and cities other than the capitals.
Ageing populations, increasingly multicultural cities and a much larger female work-
force are elements that will significantly impact urban society and the way cities are
designed and work. One can easily foresee a new demand for services currently lacking in
most cities of the South, such as nursing homes for the elderly, kindergartens and nursery
schools with relevant playgrounds, more and more pedestrian-friendly crossings, side-
walks easily accessible to wheelchairs without cars and motorbikes parked on them, as well
as spaces designed for, or appropriated by, specific segments of the urban population.

The end of XXth century ODA

With the fall of the Berlin Wall, the international scenario has irrevocably changed. The
main source of public investment in a large number of cities in the developing world until
recently, ODA is much less a strategic public policy for donor countries than it used to
be. Interest seems to now reside at best on what has been called ‘compassionate ethics’
towards countries that might fall into famine and humanitarian crises (Severino and Ray,
2009). What is more, development aid is actually moving increasingly towards what is
euphemistically referred to as ‘conflict management and prevention’ in countries such as
Iraq, Afghanistan and other ‘fragile states’. Another part of ODA is allocated to global
threats such as pandemics, the loss of biodiversity, climate change and post-disaster
management as could be seen after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the 2010 Haiti
earthquake.

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Balbo 281

The number of actors involved in some form of development operations has increased
exponentially, changing the ‘rules of the game’. The differences in objectives and priori-
ties, as well as in size and structure, that distinguish the multiple actors in international
assistance have made the current aid scenario much more complex than what it was up
to the 1990s. Each actor pursues their own motivations and legitimacy, based on assump-
tions and understandings that at best coexist, but may well be in conflict with one another
(Severino and Ray, 2010). The importance Chinese foreign aid has acquired in recent
years is well known, less so is to what extent it matches the objectives and rules set up
by traditional Western donor countries to monitor the use of aid funds.
The increasing decentralization of the arenas where projects are decided and the often
complex negotiating process among local stakeholders this spurs, fuels aid project frag-
mentation and the governance maze. Moreover, ODA is obviously not immune from the
global privatization trend, either embraced by the charitable arms of the corporate world
or more directly vectored through a rather ambiguous public–private partnership (PPP)
between industry and government. The shift to ‘compassionate ethics’ has further reduced
the share of foreign funds for the urban sector, in favour of more cross-cutting socially
oriented expenses. This not only has sectoral implications, but a political character. NGOs
of all kinds and sizes, together with scores of private foundations, some of them famously
generous on specific challenges (such as the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation with HIV-
AIDS), have gained a prominent role in the field of international aid.
Cities are at the heart of the process of change that many emerging countries are going
through. Reducing the amount of attention on urban development and the forces driving
it represents a political disengagement the international community should worry about,
given the long-lasting consequences it may have on the political scenario, in municipal
as well as national scenarios.
One further consequence of the process of change in the aid sector is the reduced role
consultancy services come to play. Although, obviously, there still exists a considerable
number of internationally funded projects that demand the services of international firms
and experts, the role of these actors, as well as their geographical reach, is becoming less
important. In most countries, urban development is by now managed by well-trained and
experienced nationals who do not need to rely on foreign experts, as in the past, or as it
was supposed to be. This is certainly good news, since in many cases, international con-
sultants have been, consciously or not, the main vehicles for conveying not only the
message but also the rules and priorities the different donors wished to convey through
their funding.
In such a context, the contribution to research of multilateral aid organizations remains
important in terms of information and quantitative elements. However, what is essen-
tially missing is a reflection on change and the driving forces behind it, and a parallel
reflection on where focus should be directed.

Closing remarks: back to government?

As stressed in the opening comments, this essay is a speculative contribution to what I
believe to be a much-needed exploration on the changes affecting the city of emerging
countries. As such, it does not purport to offer any conclusions but rather points to some

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282 Planning Theory 13(3)

of research lines that planning theory as well as policy should engage in as a conse-
quence of the social and political scenarios arising in the emerging city.
The first reflection concerns the fact that the substantial economic growth of many
emerging countries, together with more widespread democratic rule and direct govern-
ment policies, and the weakening of traditional international aid, necessitates a reassess-
ment of the urban governance versus government view that has dominated in the past 20
years. The World Bank itself has recognized that cities are so central to development that
at least some core urban issues such as land and housing markets have to be regulated by
the government at the national level, and that urban growth must be steered by adequate
planning instruments, regulations and appropriate management capacity (The World
Bank, 2009). Research needs to examine how urban policy is constructed in each specific
context and analyse the role the different urban actors play in the struggle to better posi-
tion the emerging city within world competition.
Second, with the exception of less than a handful of examples such as Curitiba, Brazil
and more recently Medellin, Colombia, in the ‘city of developing countries’, the impact
of urban policies and planning tools has always been weak if not detrimental to reducing
inequality and enhancing local development (Balbo, 1993; Borja and Castells, 1997). On
the contrary, the growing ‘consuming’ middle class in the emerging city will likely ask
for more public policy, if only at its own benefit, in terms of more security (police), more
secure residential and consumption space (well-guarded residential areas and shopping
malls) and more mobility (well-paved large enough roads for their new cars). Planning
theory should inquire whether the rise of the consuming middle class may prompt a
resurgence of planning practice in the city of emerging countries, and what distributive
impact planning will have.
The demand for better services and infrastructure that arises in cities increasingly con-
nected to international markets can only be met by public investment. The private sector
may be able to provide some services, but improving and expanding urban infrastructure
is mainly the task of governments, even in countries that look favourably at privatization.
The ‘governance’ approach widely endorsed in the past as critical to (urban) develop-
ment remains a key element, but it will likely come after, and only after, governments
prove the effectiveness of their policies.
The production and provision of urban services by the citizens themselves, or
‘from below’, have been crucial for the functioning of the city, and in most cases still
are. The examples of self-provision practices in order to guarantee a minimum level
of water supply, waste collection, road paving and collective transport are countless
at all latitudes. However, the consuming middle class, no longer willing to look at the
issue from the perspective of ‘civic governmentality’ (Roy, 2009a) or ‘counter-gov-
ernmentality’ (Appadurai, 2002), as in the past, is likely to consider the provision of
adequate urban services as a right it is entitled to and an obligation it is up to the
government to fulfil.
In this framework, urban planning may also make a comeback. When implemented,
comprehensive and local plans are an effective tool to promote greater efficiency, as
well as – no need to add – sustainability, maybe even when only marginally bottom up
and participatory. On one hand, planning can respond to the demand for better infra-
structure and services while preserving from other uses the land such infrastructure and

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Balbo 283

services have to stand on. On the other hand, planning can be an effective way to involve
the urban population in both needs identification and prioritizing responses.
Paradoxically, the deep changes common to many cities of the emerging countries
dictate approaches and tools specific to the institutional setting and decision-making
(planning) process they relate to. This is a very different perspective from the universal-
istic view that has largely dominated reflection on the ‘city of developing countries’,
since the notion was shaped (Watson, 2009) and suggested policies to be adopted across
the board based on decentralization, privatization of urban services and land tenure regu-
larization (Payne, 2002), as well as tools such as strategic plans, participatory budgeting
and PPPs (UN-Habitat, 2009).
However, the emerging and growing numbers of middle-class taxpayers can also be
expected to demand that public investment be directed first and foremost into infrastruc-
ture and services for those parts of the city in which they live, namely, the most consoli-
dated irregular settlements (or parts of them), as well the formal ones that have never
been provided with appropriate services. Should this be the urban policy resulting from
the new social structure, the city would likely be confronted with even greater social
imbalances and spatial fragmentation than what already exists.
The urban changes that the city of emerging countries is experiencing urgently call for
new research directions. In the article, I have pointed to those I perceive as the most obvi-
ous, on the basis of common trends that many if not most emerging countries have expe-
rienced only in the past decade. As I have stressed, it is precisely this very commonality
of trends that drives the necessity for context-specific policies.
The consistent economic growth registered in countries considered to be in a gridlock
of poverty until just a few years ago has brought about a much greater articulation of
urban societies, as well as a vastly different ‘demand for the city’, which surpasses the
classic urban reality, essentially comprising a few wealthy citizens in the midst of many
more poor. Urban research needs to acknowledge this new nature of urban society in the
emerging city and ask itself whether this can be translated into a new idea of citizenship
or rather whether it is destined to propel further urban social division and spatial
fragmentation.

Acknowledgements
The author thanks the insightful comments of Ronaldo Ramirez on an initial version of the paper,
and by Tito Alegría, Alain Durand-Lasserve, Haris Gazdar, Hans Harms and Michael Leaf, as well
as from Claudio Acioly on an advanced draft. The author would also like to thank the anonymous
reviewers.

Declaration of conflicting interests

The author is the only party responsible for the views expressed in this paper.

Notes
1. The terminology adopted in this text intends to avoid any misinterpretation. I will be using the
term emerging (economies, countries, city) to replace the terms developing countries, South,
global South. Although the ‘city of developing countries’ has been a legitimate and well-recog-
nized topic scholars from across the globe have been researching in the past 50 years, I fully

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284 Planning Theory 13(3)

concur that terms such as city of developing countries, city of the global South, post-third-world
city considered by many, though not all (Hurrell, 2012), are an over-simplification and do not
give full expression to the complexity of today’s world.
2. It is unclear which planning journals Yiftachel (2009) refers to when he complains that only
three articles dealt with urban informality over the years 2005–2008. One has to assume a
manifest lack of communication between the field of planning theory and that of urban studies,
as my own analysis over the 2000–2010 period shows that the four most important journals in
urban issues in the South (Environment & Urbanization, Habitat International, International
Development Planning Review, and The International Journal of Urban and Regional
Research) have all published numerous articles dealing extensively with informality.
3. UN-Habitat strongly advocates the unsustainability of cities where mobility is largely based on
the motor car, urban expansion consumes growing portions of land as well as other non-
replaceable resources, and where space is socially, economically and physically fragmented.
4. The examples documented in journals focussing specifically on urban research in the ‘city of
developing countries’ are countless.
5. Based on his work on Karachi, Haris Gazdar stressed to me how divergent societal and political
responses can be depending on the ability or willingness of state organizations to plan the city,
and to ensure a uniformly enforced system of property rights.
6. I am indebted to Tito Alegría for pointing this out.

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Author biography
Marcello Balbo is a Professor of Urban Planning at Università Iuav di Venezia and Chair-holder
of the UNESCO Chair ‘Social and Spatial Inclusion of International Migrants: urban policies and
practice’. He has authored various articles and books on topics related to urban planning and
management in developing countries, as well as on urban policy and international migration.

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