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Title 1: MIDDLE EAST AND AFGHANISTAN AFTER IMMINENT

WITHDRAWAL
Title 2: AFGHANISTAN’S POST-WITHDRAWAL CONUNDRUM
It’s been 40 years since the Iranian Revolution took place that gave birth to a disorder in the
Middle East and entirely altered its balance of power landscape. The key players: both Saudi
Arabia and Iran have long coveted for supremacy and domination over the other but they have
come across an endless conflict that seems unlikely to be fixed as yet. Be it any civil war,
uprising or insurgency; Iran and Saudi Arabia always seem to be involved. The real tension
began when Ayatollah Khomeini came into power, sparking a rivalry between the two
theological states. The Middle East has since been smoldering as this conflict had a devastating
effect on the region.
For now, what the policymakers must concern more is not the cold war of Iran and Saudi
Arabia; but the emergence of a new key player in the region. Alike the radical regime of Iran
that rose after ousting the last Shah of Iran- the Taliban are set to plug the power vacuum left
after the withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan. They have been successful in
bringing the Allied forces to a stalemate despite the military might that the latter possesses.
America too seems to have realized the political weight of Afghanistan after losing $ 1 trillion
in the Afghan War.
Although Zalmay Khalilzad is confident that until everything is agreed, nothing is agreed.
Moreover, he also affirms that a complete ceasefire is guaranteed after the withdrawal and
Taliban will be forced into peaceful politics. But despite all the apparent diplomacy, the Taliban
strenuously want the Americans to withdraw from their homeland at all costs and in future,
even if they break their vows, the Americans will be reluctant to come back.
The U.S. shall remain coy about the Afghanistan it will leave behind for the region, with the
Taliban still not defeated and a hasty peace deal in progress. Presumably, it seems that the
Taliban are in want of peace after a long-afflicted war and are ready to negotiate if a withdrawal
is assured. Still, the post-withdrawal Afghanistan raises a myriad of apprehensions about
regional stability. A shift in regional paradigm can be contemplated and the Taliban will
certainly be given a chance to choose their foes and associates. As far as now, Iran seems to
have an influential role in bringing the Taliban to the table and will continue to foment a cordial
relationship with the fighters. Conflicts are likely to break out as proxy wars will find a center
stage in Afghanistan where the scrimmage for influence and control might dispel the peace. The
stark verity of the 1990s Afghan civil war is a lesson for the pragmatic ones.
How vulnerable are Afghan forces in the post-withdrawal scenario is obscure, and vital to
comprehend before sealing any conclusive agreement with the Taliban. The Afghan army is
characterized by a staggering 47 percent desertion rate of trainees in the US, and 18 percent
serving officers as highlighted in the SIGAR report. Human resource productivity and
utilization in the battlefield is essential to plan; despite, funneling a mounting $41.8 billion on
training the Afghan army, it has withered in war. Their defeat could be traced to the frail
Human intelligence resource. In asymmetric (4th generation warfare) guerilla warfare,
technological advancement, and evolving cyber warfare - it is pivotal to equip the soldiers with
the expertise, and knowledge to combat terrorism. Afghanistan does not have a NACTA like
intelligence apparatus which has coordinated successful operations from Zarb ae Azb to Radd
ul Fasaad in Pakistan. Undoubtedly, the NDS (National Directorate of Security) of Afghanistan
has the topnotch digital intelligence equipment but lacks Human Resource development for
clandestine operations.
Afghan army possesses low morale and is financially dependent upon the USA, and other
NATO powers. Rife with corruption, nepotism, and ineffective war strategies, the Afghan
National Army is imploding under its own structure; a staring reality in this regard is the
statement of Major General Richard Caiser, the Combined Security Transition Commander,
who claims to have erased names of 30000 ghost soldiers mostly in the 215 th Corps of Afghan
Army. Fuel, food, and weapons pilferage all amount to the rising attrition rate of ANA as their
officers are interested in plundering money rather than fighting this menace. Ghost Soldiers in
records are an antic to tax the public and extract money from them even though these are
fictitious personnel. Additionally, one cannot plan operations with inaccurate, and unverifiable
records of troop strength, therefore, this aids those who are exacerbating the war rather than
resolving it. In 2015, SIGAR emphasized upon Audit of Afghan National Army since $300
million was given as Ghost Soldier salaries to the Afghan army which is alarming for the US as
well as local Afghanis.
The Afghan security forces have to chalk out a framework to keep at bay their adversaries in
Post-war withdrawal. Taliban are not the only actors in the war in Afghanistan rather ISIS, TTP,
and multifarious movements are garnering for power dominance in Afghanistan. In my
perspective, the mindset of the officers, and commanders need to be widened in defense,
Intelligence, cyber networking, and war studies through joint courses in foreign institutes in the
USA particularly, in context of guerilla warfare. Only after successful reduction in war
causalities should the US withdraw; Since it can not only affect the Afghan government but the
ample sum of money flooded on the training of Afghan forces would be squandered. Similarly,
over 70000 lives of the soldiers along with people of Afghanistan have been rendered in the war
against terrorism; such pandemonium could have been averted through timely negotiations.
Apprehensions pertaining to the internal strife within the Afghan army fabric will escalate with
chances of a renewed hotbed of war. There are numerous families who would not accede to
Taliban rule losing their loved ones.
An unforgiving and the relentless vicious cycle of warfare would not cease without the
consensus of all stakeholders. Russia, India, China, and the Middle Eastern actors all will
grapple for supremacy over Afghanistan minerals through lobbying for puppet governments.
Today, in Trump’s presidency, America is striking a deal with the Taliban without the Afghan
government on board. Surprisingly, the government along with other people with whom the US
cooperated before negotiations are all vying for a post-departure political plan which can evolve
a perilous hotchpotch of competing parties in Afghanistan.
Through history, it is an established norm that the US withdraws leaving behind chaos, muddle,
and limb. Developing nations like Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Egypt all left in tatters owing to US
involvement in the Arab Spring. The ultimate question stands whether the Trump
administration is serious about its aim to simply withdraw its troops and descend Afghanistan
into another civil war, or leave a comprehensive settlement behind it.
In an epilogue, Afghanistan situation can set ablaze with ceaseless conflict, competing rivalries,
war in absence of a coordinated consensus of all stakeholders. Now the power players
negotiating with Taliban need to mend their ways in dealing unilaterally with the situation.
Rather, a planned exit is to be foreseen. A hasty withdrawal would mean choosing to lose, no
matter how rationalized. Peace and stability in Afghanistan is imperative for the long term
repose of the region.

Abdul Fatir Khan and Muqeet Tahir are unwavering followers of International affairs, with a focus on political
and diplomatic relations. Their writings and content are derived from cross examination and analysis of
contemporary developments, history overlay and information.
You can contact them at fatir161@hotmail.com or reach them at https://www.facebook.com/muqeet.tahir and
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