Predicting Accident Probability from Frequency of Microsleep Events
B. Sirois1 , U. Trutschel1,4 , D. Edwards2 , D. Sommer3 and M. Golz3,4
1 Circadian Technologies Inc., Stoneham, Massachusetts, USA
2 Machine Research, Caterpillar Inc., Peoria, Illinois, USA
3 Faculty of Computer Science, University of Applied Sciences Schmalkalden, Germany
4 Institute for System Analysis and Applied Numerics, ISAAN, Tabarz, Germany
Abstract— There is growing acknowledgement that fatigue
plays a significant role in traffic accidents. This study evaluated
the relationship between fatigue-related accidents and Micro-
Sleep Events (MSE) using a real car driving simulator. Ten
healthy volunteers participated in the study for two nights each.
After a period of struggling against sleep pressure, all subjects
experienced periods of extreme fatigue and Micro-Sleep Events
(MSE). Most MSE had no consequences, but some resulted di-
rectly in an accident. To establish a correlation between MSE
and fatigue related accidents all MSE were counted separately
for driving sessions with and without accidents. Accident proba-
bility was calculated as the ratio of the number of MSE in the ac-
cident sessions to the total number of MSE. Under the extremely
fatiguing protocols the overall accident probability was 35 %.
Keywords— Accident probability, Micro Sleep Event Duration,
Correlations Micro-Sleep Events - Accident Events
I. I NTRODUCTION
In general, driver fatigue [Mackie 1977], [Moore-Ede
1993] can be characterized by many features, such as a de-
crease in mental and physical performance, reduced vigi-
lance, loss of cognitive and logical reasoning skills, impaired
judgment, reduced motor coordination, slower reaction time,
absentmindedness, mental lapses, uncharacteristic mistakes,
erratic behavior, and the occurrence of Micro-Sleep Events
(MSE). It is important to note that many individuals are either
not aware of the degree of impairment produced by fatigue,
or they are not able to recognize the early symptoms of MSE.
Within the public sector, inattention and driver fatigue (in-
cluding MSE) are significant factors in commercial truck
crashes, conservatively accounting for 1,200 deaths and
76,000 injuries annually at an estimated cost of $12.4 billion.
Fatigued drivers are often not aware of their condition, fre-
quently driving for repetitive episodes of 3-12 seconds with
their eyes totally closed. These drivers are experiencing dan-
gerous Micro-Sleep Events (MSE) because they are mentally
incapacitated during the MSE periods. In some accident re-
ports fatigue is named as contributing factor, when the real
factor was very likely a single MSE. Of course, fatigue is
O. Dössel and W.C. Schlegel (Eds.): WC 2009, IFMBE Proceedings 25/IV, pp. 2284–2286, 2009.
www.springerlink.com
a problem in all 24-hour operations, but the real danger is
the occurrence of MSE. During MSE, the operator is inca-
pable of responding to outside events. The brain has, in some
sense, turned its self off for a few moments. If nothing in the
work environment changes during a MSE, there are no con-
sequences. But if something happens, if there is a curve in the
road, if the car in front breaks, or your truck drifts of out its
lane, there is an immediate risk of an accident. Perhaps the
most frightening thing about MSE is that they mostly happen
without awareness or forewarning. This has been observed
numerous times during our night time driving simulator stud-
ies.
Despite the high accident potential of MSE, most research
in this field was and is focused on general driver fatigue
[Torsval et al. 1987], [Jung et al. 1997].
Recently, the MSE detection issue received some long
overdue attention [Blaivas et al. 2007], [Davidson et al.
2007]. However, the direct quantitative relationships between
MSE frequency and accident probability have not yet been
reported. To establish such a relationship requires a reliable,
continuous MSE detection capability.
However, many researchers try to explain MSE based on
certain EEG rules, similar to the sleep onset classification.
[Sommer et al. 2001] have shown that the EEG characteris-
tics during MSE is quite complex and that only rule free clas-
sification tools allow reliable MSE detection based on EEG.
In [Golz et al. 2007] and [Davidson et al. 2007], MSE classi-
fication based on EEG and EOG analysis utilizing rule free,
modern classification tools, such as Support Vector Machines
and Tapped delay-line Multilayer Perceptron networks, were
presented. [Paul et al., 2005] have shown that an increasing
number of MSE can be associated with worsening overall
driving performance.
II. E XPERIMENTAL S ETUP
The study was conducted in the laboratory of adaptive
biosignal analysis at the University of Applied Sciences,
Schmalkalden (Germany). The lab has a sophisticated, real
car driving simulator and extensive experience conducting
these types of studies. The equipment used is fully controlled
Predicting Accident Probability from Frequency of Microsleep Events
by specialized software, allowing regulation of light levels,
car environment (temperature, noise level, humidity), and of
controls and instruments. Ten volunteers participated in the
study, 8 men and 2 women. The average age was 25.2 ± 3.5
(range 20 - 29). They were all healthy, and kept regular sleep
/ wake schedules. Volunteers arrived at the lab at 11 pm. Af-
ter wire-up, experimental sessions started at 1 am. There were
seven experimental sessions, with the last session starting at 7
am. Each driving session had duration of 40 minutes. Several
bio-signals were recorded: EEG (FP1, FP2, C3, Cz, C4, O1,
O2, A1, A2), EOG (vertical, horizontal), ECG, and EMG.
In addition, three video recordings (driver’s head & pose,
driver’s eyes, driving scene) were stored. Extreme values of
Variation of Lane Deviation (VLD) were used to determine
the Accident Events (AE). MSE and AE scoring began im-
mediately and continued throughout the driving sessions by
two researchers who watched the video streams. Time stamps
were set for typical signs of MSE (e.g. prolonged eyelid clo-
sures, rolling eye movements, head nodding) and major AE
(e.g. driving incidents and drift-out-of-lane accidents). In all,
2,290 MSE were found (per subject: mean number 229 ±
67, range 138 - 363) and 668 AE (per subject: mean number
66.8 ± 54, range 7 - 193). Typical sequences of MSE and AE
are depicted in figure 1.
Fig. 1: Scored MSE (red dots) and serious AE (blue bars).
MSE occur first, sometimes leading to an AE, sometimes
not. From visual observation, there seemed to be a strong cor-
relation between the frequency of MSE per time interval and
the AE probability.
III. DATA A NALYSIS
Based on these visual observations of many MSE and AE,
a moving time window of 4 minutes was selected. The rel-
ative MSE duration in percentage was then calculated based
on this time window. For example, if the total length of all
MSE was 2 minutes inside the 4 minute time window, then
the MSE duration would 50% (Sessions 4-7 in Figure 2, red
bars). The consecutive detection of MSE from EEG and EOG
was performed by Support Vector Machines [Sommer et al.,
2008]. This methodology enables not only the detection of
clear MSE scored by the raters, but also MSE with ambigu-
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ously observed behavior. The AE probability for a single time
window was defined on a set of binary values, where ’zero’
means that no AE occurred during the whole 4 minute time
window and ’one’ means that at least one or more AE oc-
curred in the 4 minute window. The overall AE probability
was thus defined as the ratio of the number of time windows
with at least one AE and the total number of time windows.
IV. R ESULTS
As expected, the percentage MSE duration and AE proba-
bility increased progressively through the night. This can be
observed on a subject specific level (Figure 2, 3) and for all
10 subjects (Figure 4) on average. As a general observation,
we found that the AE probability moved from 0 to 1 as soon
as the MSE duration reaches 0.5 (50 % of the 4 minute time
window). This can be considered as an empirical threshold.
Fig. 2: Percent MSE duration and AE probability for individual subject A
(Definitions of MSE duration [%] and AE probability are based on 4 minute
time window). Please note that the AE are occurring at times when MSE
duration exceeds 50 % in a given 4 minute time window.
As shown in Figure 3, the average MSE durations were
not larger than 0.6 (60 % of a 4 minute time window) of
the whole driving session. Descriptive statistics of the results
of consecutive classification clearly confirmed time-on-task
and time of day effect regarding MSE and AE occurrences.
Within and between driving sessions average probability of
MSE (red bars) and average probability of AE increased. It
should be noted that there was a slight decrease of MSE du-
ration from 6th to 7th driving session, but AE probability in-
creased further.
These results clearly reflect the high correlation coeffi-
cients in the later driving sessions. There is a clear relation-
ship; longer MSE durations result in higher AE probability.
In general, for MSE durations smaller than 10 %, accidents
can happen, but the probabilty is low (Session 1 in Figure 4).
For MSE durations above 50 %, accidents will occur with a
probability close to 100 %, clearly exceeding the overall AE
probability of 35 %.