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Warren Buffett’s words ring in our ears every time there is panic in the markets.

Be greedy when others are fearful.

You would not be wrong to consider yourself a smart investor if you have been
looking at the market correction with greed.
If history is anything to go by, the phases of pandemics have given way to some
superlative returns in the stock markets. Sometimes within months.

Now, it’s anybody’s guess how long the markets will have to cope with the
coronavirus crisis.

The last time it dealt with pandemics like SARS (Jan to May 2003), Avian Influenza
(Jan to Aug 2004) and Zika virus (Nov 2015 to Feb 2016), the Sensex had shed
returns just as sharply...

Sensex Returns During Pandemic Outbreaks

Virus Outbreak Outbreak Period Sensex Returns During Outbreak (%)

SARS Jan -March 2003 -10.1
Avian Influenza Jan - Aug 2004 -12.2
Ebola Dec 13- Feb 14 1.6
Zika Nov 15- Feb 16 -13
Covid -19 Jan 20 - ? ?
Data source: Ace Equity

Coronavirus has been spreading since the start of 2020 and has spooked global
markets only recently.

It may therefore be too early to say that the market is overreacting to the crisis or
that the correction is overdone.

For the market reaction would depend on, both, the longevity of the pandemic and
its impact on economic activities.

How to Trade the Coronavirus Crash | 2

 Coronavirus Impact Felt in Stock Markets Worldwide
Sharp Weekly Correction in Global Stock Markets
0

(5)
(5)
(in %)*

(7)
(10)
(10)

(12) (12)
(15)
USA (Dow Germany Japan India China (SSEC)
Jones) (DAX) (Nikkei) (Sensex)
www.equitymaster.com Data Source: Yahoo finance
* Weekly data: 24th Feb - 28th Feb

Legendary investor, Howard Marks, wrote in one of his memos…

In the real world, things generally fluctuate between ‘pretty good’ and ‘not so
hot.’ But in the world of investing, perception often swings from ‘flawless’ to
‘hopeless.’

The sentiment of hopelessness, could therefore, continue to spook markets longer

than we expect it to.

Having said that, should we expect markets to bounce back with the same vigour
as they did after SARS, Ebola or Zika virus?

3 | How to Trade the Coronavirus Crash

 Sensex Returns Within 1 Year of the Pandemic Outbreak
Virus Outbreak Sensex P/E during Outbreak (x) 1 Year Return Post Outbreak (%)
SARS 14.2 83.4
Avian Influenza 18.0 50.3
Ebola 17.7 39.0
Zika 19.5 24.1
Covid -19 25.0 ?
Data source: Ace Equity

The Sensex returns were in the range of 24% to 84% within one year of these
pandemic-led crises.

So, it is quite natural to get greedy about the returns that could follow the Coronavirus
crisis.

But what you must keep in mind that it is not just the Coronavirus crisis but also the
steep valuations of the benchmark index (Sensex) that has left investors worried.

Unlike 2003, 2004 and 2016, the Sensex valuations are currently quite steep. And
therefore, buying lock, stock and barrel may not be a great idea.

Instead, we recommend you make your investing decisions strategically.

Follow the simple steps we have outlined in this report for your long term, near term
and trading portfolios.

These are time-tested ideas for investing success.

Even if some of these ideas seem familiar or simplistic, we urge you to incorporate
them into your investing strategies. Remember, it’s usually the time-tested ideas
that come out winners in the end.
We believe strongly that given the uncertainty in the markets, an investor should
have a workable plan in advance and then have the discipline to stick to it all times.

In fact, this is the single most important element that separates the investing men
from the boys over the long term.

This guide is all about trying to help you with just that.

How to Trade the Coronavirus Crash | 4

Inside, You Will Find...
My colleagues in the Equitymaster Research team and I have put together this
urgent report to help you tread the Coronavirus crisis - profitably.

It outlines some of the best investing strategies for the current uncertain environment.

A small caveat, though…

This guide carries strategies from Equitymaster editors with different approaches
to investing.

For instance, my approach is to buy and hold safe stocks available for cheap for
the long term and try and book outsized gains that are otherwise not possible from
such stocks.

For instance, in 2004, when the markets had collapsed, I zeroed in on Asian Paints.
Within six years I was up 777% on the trade. I did that with Bajaj Auto in 2008 and
fetched 575% gains. And again, with Hindalco in 2016, to bag 118% gains within
a year. My aim in current times is the same...to find a safe stock engulfed with
irrational fear...to hold it...and make a whole lot of money from it for my subscribers.

Now, while I am a firm believer in the safe stocks approach, I completely agree that
there are other approaches that too could deliver outsized gains in these times.

Our smallcap analyst expert Richa Agarwal believes this is the third best opportunity
in two decades to make a killing in smallcaps.

Remember, this is the same team that recommended NIIT Technologies and Page
Industries post the crash of 2008.NIIT Technologies returned 550% in 6.8 years.
And Page Industries turned out to be a 100 bagger.

I also reached out to my colleague Rahul Shah, who is our systems expert. I always
come away impressed with Rahul’s ability to cut through the noise and present
opinions based on cold, hard facts.

Consistent winners like Titagarh Wagons (545% gains in 11 months) and HIL (170%
gains in 12 months) is proof that his approach does pack a lot of punch.

And that’s not all if you are looking to benefit from the short-term opportunities in
the markets then I’ve got you covered.

5 | How to Trade the Coronavirus Crash

In the following pages you will also find views of Apurva Sheth and Vijay Bhambwani.

Apurva is a Chartered Market Technician. He observes price charts like no one

else. He has an eye for detail and he doesn’t miss any profit opportunities. His
subscribers love him for generating solid gains of 10.6% in NESCO within 10 days,
7.85% in Lupin in 7 days, 8.86% in Page Industries in 17 days and many more.

Vijay Bhambwani needs no introduction. If you have been in the markets for a while
then you have probably seen Vijay on television talking about trading - he appeared
regularly before joining hands with Equitymaster.

Vijay is probably India’s best trader. No wonder he’s on a winning streak. He just
booked 12.5% gains on his USDINR trade in a day.

Of course, each of our strategies are very different from one another, as we see the
investing space through different prisms.

But all have one common goal – to help you profit from this coronavirus situation.

Happy Investing.

Tanushree Banerjee
Editor, StockSelect
Equitymaster Agora Research Private Limited (Research Analyst)

How to Trade the Coronavirus Crash | 6

For Your Long-Term Portfolio…
(Investment Horizon of 3 Years or More)
- Tanushree Banerjee & Richa Agarwal

Just a month ago, despite a gloomy macro outlook, sentiments in the Indian stock
markets were extremely positive. Even disappointing corporate earnings did
nothing to dampen the high spirits.

But over the last 10 days, markets have taken a complete U-turn.

The biggest advantage of being a long-term investor is that you do not need to make
big changes to your investing strategy everytime there is a temporary setback.

Be it a pandemic, or crash in a particular asset class, or IL&FS like sector specific

crisis, some simple steps can help you sideline the market panic with ease.

Here are some crucial steps to take for your long-term portfolio…

Do NOT Sell in Panic

There’s no doubt that the coronavirus represents a major problem. Or that the market
reaction so far has been severe. What really matters is whether the correction is
proportional to the possible worsening of corporate fundamentals.
A lot of investors believe that getting rid of stocks is the best way to avoid the decline
in share prices. They think selling even the stocks in their long-term portfolio could
help avoid further carnage. But that is far from truth.

Selling stocks due to panic can only harm a long-term investing portfolio.

For, along with the questionable stocks, you might also lose your potential
multibaggers.

Selling the stocks with strong moats could deprive your portfolio of the safety net
that it deserves for the long term.

So, do not pay heed to talking heads who are propagating panic. Such irrational
activity could only do more harm to your portfolio.

7 | How to Trade the Coronavirus Crash

Review your Portfolio Allocation
In times like these, it is crucial to review your portfolio. Both in terms of overall
allocation to stocks and the quality of stocks.

A phase of rare market correction could be the opportunity to buy some of the best
businesses relatively cheap. Many stocks in your wish list could have come to multi
year lows in terms of valuations. And then again there may be some questionable
stocks that you may wish to sell to generate more liquidity.

Be Very Selective
Take a close look at the stocks you were hoping to buy once the valuations offered
more margin of safety. Act only on the safest ones.

Like we said before, coronavirus will certainly impact the economy and businesses.
And the market correction may continue for a while. So being selective about the
stocks you wish to buy or keep in your portfolio can help weed out the laggards.

Consider Dividend Bargains

Attractive valuations can go a long way in compounding your returns from great
stocks. But don’t forget to count the mouthwatering dividend yields. In fact, stocks
that offer steady and attractive dividend yields over long periods are the ones to
hunt for during such market corrections.

Smallcaps – An Asset Class You Can’t Afford to Ignore Amid

Coronavirus Outbreak
As markets succumb to coronavirus outbreak, this could be the third best time in
two decades to consider investing in smallcaps.

Since April 2003 - the earliest data available for the smallcap index - there are 29
times when the weekly decline in the smallcap index has been in the range of 7% or
more. 28th February 2020 was one such day. That's a frequency of 3.2% - making
it a rare occurrence.

Of these 29 times, there are 8 times when investing in the smallcap index would
have offered returns of 15% CAGR or more over a 3-year period.

How to Trade the Coronavirus Crash | 8

And that's when smallcap to Sensex was 0.42 times or lower (0.43 is the median
average of smallcap to Sensex since April 2003 - again, earliest data available on
the smallcap index.
Smallcap to Sensex Ratio

0.85

0.70

0.55

0.40

0.25
Apr-12

Apr-15

Apr-18
Jul-16

Jul-19
Nov-03

Nov-06

Nov-09
Jun-10
Jan-11

Jun-13
Sep-08

Nov-12

Nov-15

Nov-18
Aug-05
Apr-03

Apr-06

Apr-09

Sep-11

Sep-14

Sep-17
Jan-05

Jan-08
Jun-04

Jun-07

Feb-14

Feb-17

Feb-20
Smallcap to Sensex Ratio Median
www.equitymaster.com Data Source: Ace Equity

Now here's the most interesting part…

Twice it has so happened that the 3 year CAGR for smallcap index post the
outbreak was more than 50%...And each time, the smallcap to Sensex ratio has
been 0.36-0.37 times.

So, what does this mean in the context of current times?

Recently, the smallcap index witnessed a correction in the range of 7% in a week.

And at present, the smallcap to Sensex ratio stands at 0.36 times.

What this means is…

If you bet on solid stocks in the smallcap space, you stand a solid chance of
earning returns of 50% CAGR or more...

9 | How to Trade the Coronavirus Crash

And if investing during Coronavirus still scares you, this is one table you need to
look at:
Returns on Smallcaps During and Post Virus Outbreaks in Last Two Decades

P/E (Vs 1 Year

1 Year 1 Year 1 Year
Returns Median Returns Return
Virus Estimated Return Return Return
During Sensex During Post
Outbreak Period Pre Post Pre
Outbreak P/E 19.2 Outbreak Out-
Outbreak Outbreak Outbreak
times) break

Jan
SARS -March -10.1 14.2 4.4 83
2003
Avian Jan
Influen- - Aug -12.2 18.03 74 50 -9.8 197 198
za 2004
Dec 13-
Ebola 1.6 17.7 8.3 39 4.5 -16 75.6
Feb 14
Nov 15-
Zika -13 19.5 -4.7 24 -15.4 1.9 43.4
Feb 16
Covid Jan 20
-6.5 25 13.9 NA -0.6 -6.6 ?
-19 -?
^ No data available on Smallcap index

As you can see, the smallcap index has outperformed Sensex everytime when it
comes to 1 year returns post virus outbreak.

While I do not recommend stocks from a one year perspective, the valuations
are so attractive now that I wouldn’t be surprised if one year returns on solid
smallcaps post the outbreak beat the Sensex performance by a wide margin.

That said, the best approach in these times is to not let go of conservatism…and
look for smallcap stocks that are fundamentally strong and offer strong upside when
the coronavirus situation is under control.

How to Trade the Coronavirus Crash | 10

Here's the investing strategy that you should stick to while investing in smallcaps...

• Invest only in stocks with great fundamentals backed by solid management

teams – businesses that have the capacity to survive downturns shall the
crisis continue for long

• Have a long horizon period

• Follow a robust risk management framework.

I cannot insist enough how critical the last point is- it means one must have a
diversified portfolio with limited exposure to a single stock and sector, and to
equities as an asset class.

For smallcaps, the overall allocation to a single smallcap should be limited to 2%-
3% of one’s portfolio. Further, overall allocation to smallcaps as an equity class
should not be more than more than 10%.

Allocate in a Deferred Manner

Irrespective of how confident you are about the businesses you wish to buy - it isa
good idea to increase your allocation to stocks in a deferred manner. Especially
keeping the stock specific and broader market valuations in mind.

For instance, the Sensex valuation could be an important yardstick for your overall
allocation to stocks. And you could take partial exposure to expensive but good
quality stocks before increasing exposure to them on further dips.

Tanushree Banerjee is the editor of StockSelect, Equitymaster's safe bluechip

recommendation service, with a track record of over 18 years.

Richa Agarwal is the editor of two extremely successful services in the small cap space -
Hidden Treasure and Phase One Alert.

11 | How to Trade the Coronavirus Crash

For Your Near-Term Portfolio
(Investment Horizon of Up to 2 Years)
- Rahul Shah

Tanushree and Richa’s approaches to long term investing works wonderfully well
if your time horizon is at least 2 to 3 years.

However, what if you need to invest from a 1-2-year perspective to earn those fast
returns without taking on a lot of risk.

Well, you’ll need to see the world of investing through a slightly different prism in
that case.

In fact, here’s a chart that’s central to mythought process.

Average 3-Year Forward CAGR at Different PE Bands

24.0%
20.0%

16.0%
13.6%

7.8%
8.0%
3.4%

0.0%
<=16 > 16 & < 20 > 20 & < 25 > 25
www.equitymaster.com Data Source: Ace Equity

If you want fast returns without taking a lot of risk, you’d do well to have maximum
exposure to stocks when the Sensex PE is less than 20x.

How to Trade the Coronavirus Crash | 12

It all goes back to the Mr Market parable. When Mr Market has been happy and
cheerful, he has offered the Sensex to you at as high a valuation as 25x earnings.
And when he has been sad and gloomy, the Sensex has been offered to you
for as low as 16x earnings. The result of buying stocks from him at 20x or lower
means making a fortune. Buy them at 25x or higher and you will be making a pretty
mediocre sum over a long term period.

Given this, wouldn’t it be a great idea to buy the Sensex from him at a valuation of
20x and lower and sell it to him when the valuation goes significantly higher than
20x? This is precisely what I have been recommending my paid subscribers since
the last few years with fantastic results.

Back in 2014, Mr Market was sad and gloomy and was willing to offer the Sensex
at a valuation of an attractive 18x. I immediately obliged and recommended that
subscribers take maximum exposure to stocks. The move paid off handsomely as
my subscribers earned an impressive 59% on their investments that year.

Likewise, in early 2018, Mr Market was unusually happy and cheerful and wasn’t
willing to offer the Sensex at anything less than 25x. Well, this time I did the opposite
and recommended subscribers to sell the stocks to him. It again turned out to be
a great decision as my subscribers had already moved to cash by the time the big
correction in mid and small caps happened.

Little wonder, this chart has become an integral part of my entire stock picking
strategy. Every time I have groped in the dark about the impact of some big macro
event on the markets and whether to increase or decrease exposure to stocks in
view of it, this chart has shown me the light. It has pulled me away from emotions
and towards rational decision making.

Thus, what better way to get a rational viewpoint on investing in the post Coronavirus
world than to consult this chart.

Well, although Mr Market is less cheerful as before, he is still offering the Sensex at
steep valuations of 23x earnings – the red colored bar in the chart – implying that
the risk reward ratio is still not in favour of the investor.

Therefore, even though the index has corrected from its all-time highs and there’s
a lot of talk about how stocks may have become attractive, market valuations (Mr

13 | How to Trade the Coronavirus Crash

Market’s offer price) is telling a completely different story. And it is this metric that
you should listen to in my view.

Do note that my recommended allocation before the recent correction in the Sensex
was 25:75 i.e. 25% in stocks and 75% in bonds/fixed deposits.

And as we just saw, it will stay this way unless there’s some more correction and
Mr. Market starts offering the Sensex at or below 20x, whereby the risk reward
equation will turn in investor’s favour.

Rahul Shah is the editor of Microcap Millionaires, a deep value investing service that
has beat the Sensex 1.7x since inception; and Exponential Profits, a service whose goal
is to identify the most SOLID penny stocks.

How to Trade the Coronavirus Crash | 14

For Your Trading Portfolio
- Apurva Sheth

It’s not only the common public who is panicking right now amid the Coronavirus
outbreak. Central bankers have joined them too.

The US Federal Reserve jumped into action and slashed interest rates by 50 basis
points (100 basis points equal 1%).

The virus has disrupted business activity in China and supply chains across the
globe. This could raise recession risks for the US and other global economies.

The macro picture looks vulnerable right now. Only time will tell how global economy
tackles the virus. Meanwhile, we should brace for volatile times ahead.

The India VIX which measures volatility or fear in the markets has spiked to a 1-year
high. Trading becomes difficult when markets are volatile. Markets are swinging
wildly after the outbreak. If you haven’t traded in such an environment before then
this could be dangerous.

I don’t want to let this happen to you. So here are 3 ways to trade in such volatile
times. If you follow these guidelines then it will help you to limit your risk and ensure
handsome profits. Enjoy!
1. Trade only stocks with good liquidity

Markets around the world have fallen sharply since the coronavirus outbreak.
Volumes tend to be lower whenever the market falls so swiftly since a lot of
investors can’t exit stocks at higher prices. They could only watch the prices
tumble in shock. Buying evaporates suddenly. This creates a vicious cycle as
falling prices feed further fall in prices.

It’s better to trade in stocks with good liquidity during such times to keep
your impact cost or the difference between your buying and selling price
low.

15 | How to Trade the Coronavirus Crash

 If you are trading in stocks in the cash market then I recommend trading
only in stocks with an average daily turnover of more than Rs 4 crore.
These would be the top 400-450 traded stocks on the NSE. If you are
trading in futures segment then I recommend trading only in stocks with
daily turnover of more than 3,000 contracts. There are about 80 stocks
that fulfil this criterion.

2. Trade fundamentally strong stocks

One would be tempted to buy the high-flying stock you just saw a few days
ago. It might be trading a few percentage points lower than where it was
earlier. But that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s a good stock to own or trade.

Only fundamentally strong stocks with solid earning potential will bounce
back when the tide turns. So always stick with such stocks in volatile times
like these. At Breakout Profits, we have been doing this successfully for
more than two years.

3. Trade stocks which benefit from the current situation

Coronavirus has stalled economic activity across the globe. This will lead to
a fall in consumption of crude oil.

Take the example of a Boeing 747. It burns 4.5 liters of aviation turbine fuel
(ATF) per sec at 34,000 feet. That’s about 10 tons of ATF/hr. An NYC to
London flight burns 84,000 liters of ATF. The number of flights that are being
cancelled right now will lead to lot of oversupply of ATF. This would lead to
fall in crude oil prices.

It is bad news for crude oil producers… But a blessing for a nation like India
which imports 80% of its requirement. It is even good for companies which
use crude oil or petrochemicals derived from it as a major portion of raw
material. There are several sectors which benefit from falling crude oil prices.
Some of them are -

• Paints

• Oil marketing companies

• Dyes

How to Trade the Coronavirus Crash | 16

 • Plastics and Polymers

• Adhesives

• Oil based lubricants

• Specialty Chemicals

This could bring a bounty for Indian companies. One could trade in such
stocks only. You could look in to such stocks yourself or join us at the Fast
Profits Report. It is our premium monthly recommendation service. I have
teamed up with Vijay Bhambwani to identify stocks which could benefit from
trends in natural resources like crude oil, natural gas etc.

Apurva Sheth is our lead Chartist and has been guiding our readers for last five years.

17 | How to Trade the Coronavirus Crash

For Your Trading Portfolio
- Vijay Bhambwani

Desperate times, desperate measures. You’ve heard and seen this dialogue
being mouthed by your favourite film stars in Hollywood flicks. It sounds so cool.
Trading or investing in the times of Corona virus is also a desperate situation. Your
conventional trading tactics will not work as well, if they work at all.

What has changed because of the Corona virus? The financial market sentiments
are dominated by fear. Any behavioural finance student will tell you fear is an
irrational emotion. And irrationality leads to higher volatility. Prices tend to make
exaggeratedly large moves, mostly unjustified. Some time later, good sense
prevails and equilibrium returns.

The transition period from fearful to calm markets is where your pot of gold lies.
He who strikes the iron while it’s hot will see lady luck and good fortune smile on
him. I have a simple checklist of technical parameters which help me buy stocks in
such times. I am aiming to make outsized returns by the time markets return back
to normal. These stocks should have the following characteristics –

1. Out performers – the stock should rise faster than the benchmark indices
(Nifty or Sensex) in bull markets and fall slower than the indices in bearish
times. These two conditions must be met together. You don’t have the
luxury of choosing any one. If it means you forego a few stocks, so be it.
Better buying fewer but high probability stocks, than spreading yourself
too thin with a view to spread your risks.

2. Institutional favourites – as a trader I am not trying to spot hidden gems.

I try to get in and out fast and if required on large enough exposure.
Which means the stock must be highly liquid, possibly favoured by large
institutions and must be well known among the investor population as a
good investment. Think of it as a bet on the stock and the vested interest
play of strong hands in the markets. More than you, the big guys will have
a vested interest in seeing the stock rise faster. I have written and article on
Equitymaster on this theory which maybe accessed here.

How to Trade the Coronavirus Crash | 18

 3. Space out your buying – you know why majority of lottery winners in USA
wind up going broke within two years of getting their windfall gains? They
spend all their money at one go. Do not buy your stock/s in one go. Buying
in staggered lots ensures you get a favourable average price. Besides if
the downfall is prolonged, you don’t to see your stock fall significantly just
after you threw all your money in it at one go. Make haste…..but slowly.

4. Be selective – in fearful times, we tend to seek safety in numbers. We

watch financial TV channels or checkout various websites and read the
pink papers cover to cover to get a sense of “What is everyone else doing.”
Remember we traders and investors are brain warriors. We fight and win
financial wars with our ideas. Our minds are our biggest weapons and tools
of our trade. Be careful who you allow to influence your thought process.

What if the “expert” you are seeing on prime time television doesn’t even trade
or invest? You’ve allowed an armchair expert to tell you what where you should
be risking your money! Do you hire a physics tutor for your child to teach him
chemistry?

I have recorded a video on this on Equitymaster. You may view it here.

Investing and trading like life, are simple. Till we complicate matters. We commit
errors of omission (not doing what should be done) and errors of commission (doing
something that should not have been done). I have recorded a podcast with Rahul
Goel, CEO of Equitymaster, especially on what you should do in these trying times.
You may access it here.

I believe in times like these, investors get paralysed by fear like a deer in the glare
of an automobile headlight. We freeze in our tracks and stop investing. The markets
recover and we’ve missed the bus. You will be committing an error of omission
here.

Remember ships are safest in the harbour. But that’s not what they are built for.

Vijay L Bhambwani, is the editor of Weekly Cash Alerts and Fast Income Alerts. He is a
professional trader, author, trading mentor, and lifelong student of the markets.

19 | How to Trade the Coronavirus Crash

To Conclude…
The Coronavirus crisis is nothing but an uncertainty for the markets.

The best way to make profits out of such periods of uncertainty is to use tried and
tested strategies. Strategies that are known to be safe, yet rewarding.

My colleagues and I in the Equitymaster Research team have put down the
strategies that we have tested over the 80 odd years of our collective experiences,
in this report.

Equipped with the strategies outlined in this report, you could not just fortify your
portfolio with some of the strongest bluechips and high potential smallcaps, for
the long term. But you could also exploit the market anomalies to make quick and
exponential gains in microcaps or grab upto double digit trading profits in few
hours or days.

How to Trade the Coronavirus Crash | 20

Coverpage image source: Ca-ssis / www.istockphoto.com

© Equitymaster Agora Research Private Limited. All rights reserved.

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