Approved for Release: 2019/10/29 C06826836

6-2<<=I>

6.2(d)
ROMANIA: Situai ion Report

Protests Spreading The Ceausescu regime isfasr approaching and the US

l

its breaking point,

i
Emba rsy has ordered evacuation of nonessential personnel. '
3(b)(1 )

A staged proregime rally in Bucharest yesterday turned into a violent

anti-Ceausescu demonstration of ab 0,000 people; it left at least
13 confirmed protesters at the ' '3(b)(1)
International Hotel were assaulted b ecurity forces around
pockets Ofunrest in -

other parts of Bucharest.

3.3(b)(1)
6.2(d)
l
government forces also fired
on demonstrators in Arad and Cluj ‘yesterday. 3_3(b)('l)

3.3(b)(1)
6.2(d)
Despite the state of emergency declared in the Timisoara area,
an unprecedented number of demonstrators—-reportedly u to
lO0,000—demanded the right to bury their dead.
l_Cl' intellectuals and professionals
-'
in Timisoa ra ave ormed the
'

ommittee for Socialist Democracy, which has called for the ouster
' '
)

ofthe entire government. Premier Dascalescu reported] went to

Timiscara to meet with a delegation from the group.
6.2(d)
Reliability of
lsome Army troo s in Timisoara
3.3(b)(1)
l

Security Forces have jcined protesters, andl

militia are handing out bread to
%unarmed
executions of military personnel by security forces for disobevine 1

dem
‘

orders .0 shoot at
3.3(b)(1)
‘

Comment: unlikely security forces will be able to sustain the

lt is
.3(b)(1)
current level of force for more than a few days. The _;
regime, however, '

3 3 ( b )( 1 )
. .

will coi.-tinue to rely primarily on the security

_ . .

forces, rather than on

.

. .
"

the military, to put down unrest. The widely hated “securitate“

better equipped and has a personal stake in the survival
is 6.2(Cl)
ofthe regime.
The regular Army is comprised largely of conscripts who probably
.'

would balk ifcalled on for prolonged use of force against fellow

|
4

6-2(d)
continued

'%S‘ee|=et_
TCS 2996/89
3 22 December I989

Approved for Release: 2019/10/29 C06826836

 Approved for Release: 2019/10/29 C06826836

e.2( Cl)

Romania: Forces To Quell Unrest

The Ministry of Interior has employed the Security Troops and the militiito c r
suppression of the people of Romania.‘ = 1

3.3(b)( 1)

—The 20,000 men of the Security Troops are well trained and fully equipped for riot
control. They are stationed throughout the country to protect VIPs and key
industries. Their equipment includes armored personnel carri-:rs and helicopters.

—-The militia numbers some 23.000 men performing day-to-day law enforcement and
crowd control. They have a well-deserved reputation for brutality.

—The Romanian Pcoplc‘s Army, with some 128,000 men, could be used as a backup
force but is not adequately trained for internal security operat ons. Some soldiers
reportedly have joined the demonstrations.

_The unarmed Patriotic Guard-l 2,000 men—performs simmr S€Cl.l!ilT checks.

\:| 3 3(b)( —\
\/

—The Border Guards’ 20,000-man conscript force protects the eauntry by controlling
all movement in and around the border area.

6 2( Q.

fi'W&eret§
TCS 2996/89
22 December I989

Approved for Release: 2019/10/29 C06826836

 Approved for Release: 2019/10/29 C06826836

6.2(d)

Foreign Reaction Soviet Politburo member Zaykov yesterday urged

the leadership not
to use force but to open a dialogue with its people.
The Soviet CSCE
representative called on Romania to observe the Helsinki
accords but
stopped short of condemning the regime. Hungary has
asked the
chairrr an ofthe UN
Security Council to convene a meeting to discuss
the situation. It also has canceled its Treaty of
Friendship and
Coope-ation with Bucharest. Foreign Minister Horn
howev-r r, that B u d a est wt'll not b rea k d'tp omaltc
announced.
"
'

relattonswtth
'

Romama-
I

6.2(d)
Commt-nt: Hungary is Focusing its current efforts on
orchestrating
international condemnation ofthc Ceausescu
regime. which it
believes is its best hope to influence events.
Budapest is not likely to
take any offensive military steps, although it will
closely monitor
Romanian troop movements. Pressure for stronger measures will
mount. however, if violence becomes more widespread, and
Budapest
may evzintually be forced to sever
6.2(d)
West Etropean leaders have responded to the escalating violence
with di_-Jlomatic protests. At yesterday's CSCE
meeting. 23 members
eonden ned the repression. The EC has suspended all remaining
relations with Bucharest and 0 d to provide humanitarian aid to
"

Roman an 6.2(d)

Next Moves 3.3( )(1)

CLO“

6.2( )

Commettt: Although Ceausescu may try to dampen

unrcst by offering
further t-conomic concessions. his preference
will be to use force to
retain power. The government already
has offered minimal increases
in wage: and allowances. and stores
are reportedly being stocked with
usually scarce goods. These concessions will
probably incite further
0 ular ou
t

6.2(d)
After Continu ng unrcst—particularly in Bucltarest-probably
(‘eausescu_ Who? \vould set
in motion efforts by the military
or Communist Party leadership to
topple C:ausescu. There are a few identifiable
political figures in
Romania who could pick up the pieces if Ccausescu were
ousted.
Possible successors include military figures such
as Defense Minister
Vasile Milezt or civilians such as international 1
affairs secretary
Constantin Oltcanu. former Ccausescu adviser l '

for mcr F 0 rctgn Mtntstcr Stefan

-
' ' '
" ‘

Andrei.
'

6.2(d)

$tp§ee¢g1\
TCS 29%/8‘)
4 22 December I989

Approved for Release: 2019/10/29 C06826836