504 CHAPTER 8 ESTIMATING WITH CONFIDENCE In practice, we use the sample proportion j to estimate the unknown p; eter p. We therefore replace the standard deviation of j with its standard when constructing a confidence interval. The C% confidence interval fo ga = [PUD ice ecegiat where z* is the standard Normal critical value with C% of its area between andz*, When constructing a confidence interval, follow the four-step process: STATE: What parameter do you want to estimate, and at what con| level? PLAN; Identify the appropriate inference method. Check conditions, DO: Ifthe conditions are met, perform calculations. CONCLUDE: Interpret your interval in the context of the problem. ‘The sample size needed to obtain a confidence interval with approxi margin of error ME for a population proportion involves solvin good idea about the value off. 8.2] TECHNOLOGY (eee ane eee 15. Confidence interval for a population proportion Section 8.2 B>GKHNES For Exercises 27 to 30, check whether each of the condi- at his college. Thirty-eight of those interviewed hil tions is met for calculating a confidence interval for the tuition is too high Bapeletign poertion |. AIDS and risk factors In the National AIDS Be school food Latoya wants to estimate what hravioral Surveys sample of 2673 adult heterosextal proportion of the seniors at her boarding high school (0.2% had both received a blood transfusion and like the cafeteria food. She interviews an SRS of 50 a senual partner from a group at high risk of AIDS of the 175 seniors living in the dormitory. She finds ‘We want to estimate the proportion pin the p that 14 think the cafeteria food is good. tion who share these two risk factors High tuition costs. Glenn wonders what proportion ). Whelks and mussels ‘The small round holes ya ofthe students at his school belive that tuition is too offen sce in sca shells were drilled by other sca high, He interviews an SRS of 50 ofthe 2400 students, creatures, who ate the former dwellers ofthe shellsWhelks often drill into mussels, but this behavior sppeats to be mote or less common in different Jpcations. Researchers collected whelk eges from the coast of Oregon, raised the whels in the labora- {ory then put each whelk in a container with some elicious mussels. Only 9 of 98 whelks drilled into a & fhussel” The researchers want to estimate the pro- onion p of Oregon whelks that wll spontaneous) Ul into mosses » {93% confidence Find z* for a 98% confidence Gnterval using Table A or your calculator. Show your 93% confidence Find 2* for a 93% confi interval using Table A or your caleulator. Show your method. 38. ing to the prom Tonya wants to estimate what proportion of her school's seniots plan to attend the jm, She interviews an SRS of 50 of the 750 seniors 3 Imher school and finds that 36 plan to goto the oS identify the population and parameter of interest. ® ser sheck conditions for constructing a confidence L 4 nterval for the parameter. Jonstruct a 90% confidence interval for p. Show 40. our method re espe the itera in content i ng cheating’ What proportion of students willing to report cheating by other students? A dent project put this question to an SRS of 172 Undergraduates ata large university: “You witness Bia students cheating om a quiz. Do you goto the 4 heck conditions for constmucting a confidence fenal for the parameter. Construct a 99% confidence interval for p. Show jour method. @) Interpret the interval in context inge drinking In a recent National Survey of Drug ‘and Health, 2312 of 591+ randomly selected fulltime US. college students were classified as © Binge drinkers.” ulate and interpret a 99% confidence interval fr the population proportion p that are binge Hhewspaper article claims that 45% offulltime US. # allege students are binge drinkers. Use your result part (a) to comment on this claim, 505 ‘Teens’ texting .\ Pew Intemet and American Life Project survey found that 392 of 799 randomly selected teens reported texting with their friends every day Calculate and interpret a 95% confidence interval for the popullation proportion p that would report texting with their friends every day Isit plausible that the true proportion of American teens who text with their friends every day is 0.45? Use your result from par (a) to support your answer. Binge drinking Describe a possible source of error that is not included in the margin of error for the ‘99% confidence interval in Exercise 35. ‘Teens’ texting Deseribe a possible source of error that is not included in the margin of error for the 95% confidence interval in Fxereise 36. How common is SAT coaching? A ranidom sample of students who took the SAT college entrance examination twice found that 427 of the respondents hhad paid for coaching courses and that the remain- ing 2733 had not." Construet and interpret a 99% confidence interval for the proportion of coaching among students who retake the SAT 2010 begins In January 2010 a Gallup Pol asked a random sample of adults, “In general, ae you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?” In all, 256 said that they ‘were satisfied and the remaining 769 said they were not. Construct and interpret a 90% confidence inter- ‘al for the proportion of adulls who are satisfied with how things are going, Equality for women? Have efforts to promote equal ity for women gone far enough in the United States? ‘A pol on this issue by the eable network MSNBC contacted 1019 adulls. A newspaper article about the pall said, “Results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points." ‘The news ticle said that 65% of men, but only 43% of women, think that efforts to promote equality have gone far enough. Explain why we do not have enough information to give confidence intervals for ‘men and women separately Would a 95% confidence interval for women alone have a margin of errr les than 0.03, about equal to 10.03, or greater than (03? Why? (You see that the news article's statement about the margin of error for poll results i abit misleading.) ATTY poll A television news program conducts a call-in poll about a proposed city ban on handgun ‘ownership. Of the 2372 calls, 1921 oppose the ban.506 43 ool (@) (b) 44, ) 45. 46. 7. CHAPTER 8 ‘The station, following recommended practice, makes a confidence statement: “81% of the Channel 13 Pulse Poll sample opposed the ban, We ean be 95% confident thatthe true proportion of citizens oppesing a handgun ban is within 1.6% of the sample result.” Is the lation’ conclusion justified? Explain, Can you taste PTC? PTC isa substance that has strong bitter taste for some people and is tasteless for others. The ability to taste PTC is inherited. About 75% of Italians can taste PTC, for example. You want to estimate the proportion of Americans who have at least one Italian grandparent and who ean taste PTC. How large a sample must you test to estimate the proportion of PTC tasters within 0.04 with 90% confidence? Answer this question using the 75% estimate asthe guessed value for p. Answer the question in part (a) again, but this time use the conservative guess 6 = 0.5. By how much do the two sample sizes differ? School vouchers A national opinion poll found that 44% of all American adults agree that parents should be given vouchers that are good for edueation at any public or private school of their choice. The result was based on a small sample How large an SRS is required to obtain a margin of eror of 0.08 (that i, #3%) in a 99% confidence interval? Answer this question using the previous poll's result as the guessed value for . Answer the question in part (a) again, but this time use the conservative guess = 0.5. By how much do the two sample sizes differ? Election polling Gloria Chaves and Ronald Flynn are the candidates for mayor ina large city, We want to estimate the proportion p ofall registered voters in the city who plan to vote for Chavez with 95% confidence and a margin of error no greater than 0.03, How large a random sample do we need? Show your work Starting a nightclub A college student organization ‘wants to start a nightclub for students under the aze (of 21, To assess support for this proposal, they will select an SRS of students and ask each respondent if he or she would patronize this type of establishment What sample size is required to obtain a 90% confi- dence interval with an approximate margin of error cof 0,042 Show your work ‘Teens and their TV sets According to a Gallup Pll report, 64% of teens aged 13 to 17 have TVs in thei rooms. Here is pat of the footnote to this report ‘These reultsare based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1028 teenagers ESTIMATING WITH CONFIDENCE in the Gallup Poll Panel of households, aged 13 4g or results based on this sample, one can say the maximum error attributable to sampling and of random effects is +3 percentage points. In addition to sampling enor, question wording and practical ficulties in conducting surveys ean introduce erorg bias into the findings of public opinion polls." (2) We omitted the confidence level from the footnat Use what you have leamed to determine the conf dence level, assuming that Gallup took an SRS, () Give an example ofa “practical dificulty” that ai lead to biased rests for this survey: 48. Gambling and the NCAA Gambling is an issue great concer to those involved in college allt Because ofthis concer, the National Collegiat Alhletie Association (NCAA) surveyed randomly selected student athletes conceming their gambling related behaviors.” Of the 5594 Division I male atletes in the survey, 3547 reported paticipatir in some gambling behavior. This includes play cards, betting on games of sill, buying lottery til betting on sports, and similar activities. A report this study cited a 1% margin of error. (a) The confidence level was not tated in the report Use what you have leamed to find the confidene level, assuring that the NCAA took an SRS, (b)_ ‘The study was designed to protect the anonym of the student athletes who responded. Asa res it was not possible to calculate the mumber of denls who were asked to respond but did not, He does this fact affect the way that you interpret results? Multiple choice: Select the hest answer for Exercise 10 52. 49. A Gallup Poll found that only 28% of Ameriean adults expect to inherit money or valuable pose sions from a relative. The poll’s margin of error i +3 percentage points at a 95% confidence level ‘This means that (a) the poll used a method that gets an answer withi ‘of the truth about the population 95% of the ime (b)_ the percent ofall adults who expect an inheritane hetween 25% and 31% (6). if Gallup takes another poll on this issue, the re of the second poll will lie between 25% and 31% (4) there's 295% chance thatthe percent of all dul ssho expect an inheritance is between 25% and 318 (6). Gallup can be 95% confident that between 259% ail 31% of the sample expect an inheritance.