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Financial Analysts Journal

Volume 63 • Number 5
©2007, CFA Institute

Expected Utility Asset Allocation


William F. Sharpe

Most asset allocation analyses use the mean–variance approach for analyzing the trade-off between
risk and expected return. Analysts use quadratic programming to find optimal asset mixes and the
characteristics of the capital asset pricing model to determine reasonable optimization inputs. This
article presents an alternative approach in which the goal of asset allocation is to maximize expected
utility, where the utility function may be more complex than that associated with mean–variance
analysis. Inputs for the analysis are based on the assumption of asset prices that would prevail if
there were a single representative investor who desired to maximize expected utility.

M
any institutional investors periodically 4. Estimates future expected returns, standard
adopt an asset allocation policy that deviations, and correlations. Historical data
specifies target percentages of value for are typically used, with possible modifica-
each of several asset classes. Typically, a tions, for standard deviations and correlations.
policy is set by a fund’s board after evaluating the Expected returns are often based more on cur-
implications of a set of alternative policies. The rent market conditions and/or typical rela-
staff is then instructed to implement the policy, tionships in capital markets.
usually by maintaining the actual allocation to 5. Finds several mean–variance-efficient asset
each asset class within a specified range around the mixes for alternative levels of risk tolerance.
policy target level. Studies of the asset allocation 6. Projects future outcomes for the selected asset
(or asset/liability) policy are usually conducted mixes, often over many years.
every one to three years, or sooner if market con- 7. Presents to the board relevant summary mea-
ditions change radically. sures of future outcomes for each of the
Most asset allocation studies include at least selected asset mixes.
some analyses that use standard mean–variance 8. Finally, asks the board to choose, based on its
optimization procedures and incorporate at least views concerning the relevant measures of
some of the aspects of equilibrium asset-pricing future outcomes, one of the candidate asset
theory based on mean–variance assumptions— mixes to be the asset allocation policy.
typically, a standard version of the capital asset The focus of this article is on the key analytical
pricing model (CAPM), possibly augmented by tools used in Steps 4 and 5. In Step 5, analysts typi-
assumptions about asset mispricing. cally use the technique of portfolio optimization. To
provide reasonable inputs for such optimization, ana-
In a complete asset allocation study, a fund’s
lysts often rely on informal methods but, in some
staff (often with the help of consultants) typically
cases, use the technique of reverse portfolio optimization.
does the following:
For expository purposes, I begin with a discus-
1. Selects desired asset classes and representative
sion of portfolio optimization methods; I then turn
benchmark indices.
to reverse optimization procedures. In each case, I
2. Chooses a representative historical period and
review the standard analytical approach based on
obtains returns for the asset classes.
mean–variance assumptions and then describe a
3. Computes historical asset average returns,
more general procedure that assumes investors seek
standard deviations, and correlations.
to maximize expected utility. Importantly, mean–
variance procedures are special cases of the more
William F. Sharpe is STANCO 25 Professor of Finance, general expected utility formulations. For clarity, I
Emeritus, Stanford University, and founder of Financial term the more general approaches “expected utility
Engines, Inc., Palo Alto, California. optimization” and “expected utility reverse optimi-
zation,” and I call the traditional methods “mean–
Editor’s Note: William F. Sharpe is a member of the FAJ variance optimization” and “mean–variance
Advisory Council. reverse optimization.”

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Expected Utility Asset Allocation

The prescription to select a portfolio that max- a quadratic approximation to an investor’s true
imizes an investor’s expected utility is hardly new, utility function may provide asset allocations that
nor are applications in the area of asset allocation. supply expected utility adequately close to that
Particularly relevant in this respect is the work by associated with a fully optimal allocation, as
Cremers, Kritzman, and Page (2005) and by Adler argued in Levy and Markowitz (1979).
and Kritzman (2007), in which a “full-scale opti- Asset allocation studies often explicitly
mization” numerical search algorithm is used to assume that all security and portfolio returns are
find an asset allocation that maximizes expected distributed normally over a single period (for
utility under a variety of assumptions about inves- example, a year). If this were the case, the focus on
tor preferences. mean–variance analysis would be appropriate, no
This article adds to the existing literature in matter what the form of the investor’s utility func-
three ways. First, it presents a new optimization tion. But there is increasing agreement that at least
algorithm for efficiently maximizing expected util- some return distributions are not normally distrib-
ity in an asset allocation setting. Second, it provides uted, even over relatively short periods, and that
a straightforward reverse optimization procedure explicit attention needs to be given to “tail risk”
that adjusts a set of possible future asset returns to arising from greater probabilities of extreme out-
incorporate information contained in current mar- comes than those associated with normal distribu-
ket values. Finally, it shows that traditional mean– tions. Furthermore, interest has been increasing in
variance procedures for both optimization and investment vehicles that are intentionally designed
reverse optimization are obtained if the new proce- to have nonnormal distributions and substantial
dures are used with the assumption that all inves- downside tail risk, such as hedge funds. For these
tors have quadratic utility. reasons, in at least some cases, the first justification
In large part, this study applies and extends for mean–variance analysis as a reasonable approx-
material covered in Investors and Markets: Portfolio imation to reality may be insufficient.
Choices, Asset Prices, and Investment Advice (Sharpe The second justification may also not always
2007), to which readers interested in more detail suffice. Quadratic utility functions are character-
are referred. ized by a satiation level of return beyond which the
investor prefers less return to more—an implausi-
ble characterization of the preferences of most
Mean–Variance Analysis investors. To be sure, such functions have a great
Much of modern investment theory and practice analytical advantage and may serve as reasonable
builds on the Markowitz (1959) assumption that an approximations for some investors’ true utility
investor need be concerned in many cases solely functions. Nonetheless, many investors’ prefer-
with the mean and variance of the probability dis- ences may be better represented by a different type
tribution of his or her portfolio return over a spec- of utility function. If so, that true utility function can
ified future period. Given this assumption, only be taken into account not only in choosing an opti-
portfolios that provide the maximum mean mal portfolio but also when making predictions
(expected) return for given variance of return (or about trade-offs available in the capital markets.
standard deviation of return) warrant consider- Finally, although mean–variance analysis may
ation. Analysts can thus consider a representative provide a sufficient approximation in a given set-
set of such mean–variance-efficient portfolios of ting to produce an adequate asset allocation, it
asset classes in an asset allocation study and choose would seem prudent to evaluate the efficacy of the
the one that best meets the board’s preferences in traditional approach by at least conducting an alter-
terms of the range of relevant future outcomes over native analysis based on detailed estimates of pos-
one or more future periods. sible future returns and the best possible
A focus on only the mean and variance of representation of the investor’s preferences. To
portfolio return can be justified in one of three facilitate such an evaluation, I present more general
ways. First, if all relevant probability distributions approaches to optimization and reverse optimiza-
have the same form, mean and variance may be tion. Specifically, I will assume that forecasts are
sufficient statistics to identify the full distribution made by enumerating an explicit set of discrete
of returns for a portfolio. Second, if an investor possible sets of asset returns over a period of choice,
wishes to maximize the expected utility of portfolio with the probability of each outcome estimated
return and considers utility a quadratic function of explicitly. Given such a set of forecasts, I first show
portfolio return, only mean–variance-efficient how an optimal portfolio would be chosen if one
portfolios need be considered. Third, over the used a traditional mean–variance analysis; then, I
range of probability distributions to be evaluated, present the more general approach that can take

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Financial Analysts Journal

into account an alternative form of an investor’s For any given risk tolerance, a mean–variance
utility function. Subsequently, I show how mean– optimization requires the following inputs:
variance methods are used to obtain forecasts con- • forecasts of asset return standard deviations,
sistent with capital market equilibrium and then • forecasts of correlations among asset returns,
present a more general approach that can take into • expected asset returns,
account different aspects of the process by which • the investor’s risk tolerance, and
asset prices are determined. For both optimization • any relevant constraints on asset holdings.
and reverse optimization, the expected utility In practice, constraints are often incorporated
approach can provide the same results as the mean– in such analyses to avoid obtaining “unreasonable”
variance approach if the special assumptions of the or “infeasible” asset mixes. In many cases, how-
latter are used. ever, such constraints reflect inadequate attention
Increased generality does not come without to ensuring that the asset forecasts used in the
cost. The mean–variance approach can be used analysis are, taken as a whole, reasonable.
with continuous distributions (typically, jointly Although general quadratic programming
normal). The procedures I present here require dis- algorithms or other procedures for handling non-
crete distributions, in which each possible scenario linear problems may be used to perform mean–
is included. At the very least, the procedures thus variance optimization, problems in which the only
require that many alternative outcomes be enumer- constraints are bounds on the holdings of individ-
ated. This article is limited to the presentation of the ual assets can be solved by using a simpler gradient
analytical approaches; I leave for future research an method, such as that described in Sharpe (1987). In
analysis of their practical aspect. Suffice it to say such a method, an initial feasible portfolio is ana-
here that the potential advantages of discrete lyzed to find the best asset that could be purchased
approaches include their ability to allow for more and the best asset that could be sold, where “best”
complex distributions than those associated with refers to the effect of a small change in holdings on
joint normality and the ability to take into account the desirability of the portfolio for the investor. As
more aspects of investor preferences. long as the purchase of the best-to-buy security
(financed by the sale of the best-to-sell asset) will
Mean–Variance Optimization increase the desirability of the portfolio, such a
swap is desirable. Next, the amount of the swap is
As shown by Markowitz (1959), quadratic program- chosen so as to maximize the increase in the port-
ming algorithms can be used to find the portfolio folio’s desirability subject to constraints on feasibil-
that provides the maximum expected return for a ity. The process is then repeated until the best
given level of standard deviation of return. Solving possible swap cannot increase the portfolio’s desir-
such a quadratic programming problem for each of ability. As I will show, a similar approach can be
several different levels of standard deviation of used in a more general setting.
return or variance (standard deviation squared) can To illustrate both types of optimization, I use a
provide a set of mean–variance-efficient portfolios simple example. In this case, there are three assets
for use in an asset allocation study. (cash, bonds, and stocks) and four possible future
A standard way to generate a mean–variance- states of the world (or, scenarios). Based on history,
efficient portfolio is to maximize a function of current conditions, and equilibrium consider-
expected return and standard deviation of return ations, an analyst has produced the forecasts given
of the form in Table 1.1 Each entry shows the total return per
v dollar invested for a specific asset if and only if the
d = e− , (1) associated state of the world occurs. Each state has
t
where an equal probability of occurring, that is, 0.25. The
investor’s risk tolerance, t, equals 0.70.
d = desirability of the portfolio for the investor
e = portfolio expected return
v = portfolio variance of return Table 1. Forecasted Future Asset-Class
t = investor’s risk tolerance Returns by State
Solving such a problem for various levels of risk State Cash Bonds Stocks
tolerance provides a set of mean–variance-efficient State 1 1.0500 1.0388 0.8348
portfolios for an asset allocation study. By choosing State 2 1.0500 0.9888 1.0848
one portfolio from a candidate set of such portfolios, State 3 1.0500 1.0888 1.2348
the board, in effect, reveals its risk tolerance. State 4 1.0500 1.1388 1.2848

20 www.cfapubs.org ©2007, CFA Institute


Expected Utility Asset Allocation

The goal is thus to maximize e – (v/0.70). associated with the total return in that state. The
The first step in a mean–variance optimization expected utility of the return in a state equals its
is to compute the expected returns, standard devia- utility times the probability that the state will occur.
tions, and correlations of the assets from the fore- The expected utility of the portfolio is then the sum
casted returns (Table 1) and probabilities of states. of the expected utilities of its returns in the states.
Table 2 provides these expected returns and The utility of a total portfolio return, Rp, in state
standard deviations; Table 3 shows the correlations. s is denoted u(Rps). The investor’s goal is to maxi-
mize expected utility eu, where2

Table 2. Expected Returns and Standard


s
( )
eu = ∑ π s u R ps , (2)
Deviations
Asset Expected Return Standard Deviation
where πs is the probability that state s will occur.3
Note that Equation 2 assumes that the utility
Cash 1.0500 0.0000
function is the same for all states and that expected
Bonds 1.0638 0.0559
utility is separable and additive across states. These
Stocks 1.1098 0.1750
assumptions rule out some possible aspects of pref-
erences but are considerably more general than the
Table 3. Correlations
mean–variance assumptions.
Cash Bonds Stocks
The first derivative of utility, marginal utility of
Cash 1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 total portfolio return in state s, is denoted m(Rps). I
Bonds 0.0000 1.0000 0.6389 assume that marginal utility decreases with Rps ,
Stocks 0.0000 0.6389 1.0000 which is equivalent to assuming that the investor
is risk averse.
In this example, there are no constraints on I assume that the only constraints are an upper
asset holdings other than that the sum of the pro- bound, ub, and a lower bound, lb, on individual
portions invested in the assets equal 1. The result- asset holdings of the form
ing mean–variance-optimal portfolio is composed
as shown in the first column of Table 4. Had there lbi ≤ xi ≤ ubi , (3)
been a lower bound on each asset holding of 0 and where xi is the proportion of the fund invested in
an upper bound of 1, the same portfolio would have asset i; the xi values sum to 1.
been obtained because the constraints would not
have been binding. Maximizing Expected Utility. I now present
an algorithm for solving the nonlinear program-
ming problem described in the previous section.
Table 4. Optimal Portfolios First, note that the marginal expected utility,
Expected meu, of the portfolio return in state s is

( ) ( )
Mean–Variance Utility Portfolio:
Asset Portfolio Quadratic Utility meu R ps = π s m R ps . (4)
Cash 0.0705 0.0705 Now consider the effect on portfolio expected
Bonds 0.3098 0.3098 utility of a small change in the amount invested in
Stocks 0.6196 0.6196 asset i. Because $1 invested in the asset provides Ri1
in State 1, Ri2 in State 2, and so on, the marginal
Expected Utility Optimization expected utility (per dollar) of asset i will be
I now introduce the more general approach to opti-
s
( )
meui = ∑ Ris meu R ps . (5)
mization and illustrate its use with the same simple
example. I show that the general procedure will This relationship will hold for any asset and for
produce the same results as mean–variance optimi- any portfolio because a portfolio’s return is simply
zation if the investor is assumed to have a particular the weighted sum of asset returns, with the weights
type of preference but that a different type of pref- summing to 1.
erence will give a different optimal portfolio. Note that for each asset, the cost of obtaining
its set of returns across states is $1. Now consider a
Expected Utility. The key assumption is that portfolio containing two assets, i and j, where (1)
the goal of an investor is to maximize the expected meui > meuj and the investor can (2) purchase addi-
utility of the return from his or her portfolio. Asso- tional units of asset i and (3) sell some units of asset
ciated with the portfolio return in each state of the j. Clearly, the portfolio can be “improved”—that is,
world is a utility that measures the “happiness” its expected utility can be increased. The reason is

September/October 2007 www.cfapubs.org 21


Financial Analysts Journal

straightforward. Because obtaining each asset’s set Up to the precision used for the termination
of returns costs $1, if these three asset conditions conditions, this procedure will find a portfolio that
are met, expected utility can be increased by selling maximizes expected utility under the specified
some units of asset j and using the proceeds to buy conditions—namely, only upper and lower
units of asset i. bounds on asset holdings and marginal utility that
It is a simple matter to determine whether or decreases with portfolio return.
not such a change is possible for a given portfolio.
The marginal expected utility for each asset can be Quadratic Utility Functions. I first illustrate
computed, and each asset can be classified as a the use of the optimization procedure with a case
potential buy (if xi < ubi) and/or a potential sell (if in which the investor’s utility is a quadratic func-
xi > lbi). The “best buy” is the asset among the tion of portfolio return. I have chosen an investor
potential buys with the largest marginal expected with an attitude toward risk that is equal to that of
utility. The “best sell” is the one among the potential the investor considered earlier (t = 0.70).
sells with the smallest marginal expected utility. If An investor with quadratic utility can be
the marginal expected utility of the best buy exceeds described as maximizing the expected value of a
that of the best sell, then the best swap involves quadratic function of portfolio return of the form
selling units of the best sell and purchasing units of
k 2
the best buy. If the marginal expected utility of the u (R) = R − R , (6)
best buy does not exceed that of the best sell, or if 2
there are no potential buys or no potential sells, then where k is the quadratic utility parameter.
the portfolio cannot be improved. The associated marginal utility function is
Once a desirable swap has been identified, the
m (R) = 1 − kR. (7)
optimal magnitude for the amount to be swapped
can be determined. A simple procedure deter- The satiation level is that for which marginal
mines the largest feasible magnitude, which is utility equals 1/k because for higher levels of return,
given by the upper bound of the asset to be bought the marginal utility will be negative and total utility
and the lower bound of the asset to be sold. The will be lower than that associated with a return of 1/k.
marginal expected utilities of the assets that would Other things being equal, the lower k is, the more risk
obtain were this swap undertaken are then deter- an investor with quadratic utility will take.
mined. If the spread between the marginal utility For an investor with quadratic utility, expected
of the asset being bought and that of the asset being utility will be a linear function of the expected
sold would still be positive, the maximum swap portfolio return and the expected value of the
should be made. Otherwise, an intermediate return squared. But the expected value of the return
amount (for example, halfway between the mini- squared is equal to the portfolio variance plus the
mum of zero and the maximum) should be consid- expected return squared. Thus, expected utility
ered; then, the marginal expected utilities that will be a function of portfolio expected return and
would obtain were that swap undertaken should variance of return, although not of the linear form
be calculated. If the spread would still be positive, used in the mean–variance-optimization proce-
the range of swaps should be restricted to that dure described earlier. For any given expected
between the intermediate amount and the maxi- return, an investor with quadratic utility will wish
mum amount. Otherwise, the range should be to minimize variance and hence will choose a
restricted to that between the minimum and the
mean–variance-efficient portfolio.
intermediate amount. This procedure is continued
Now consider a quadratic utility investor with
until the marginal expected utility spread is lower
k = 0.6938 (to four decimal places) and a corre-
than a desired threshold or a similar condition is
sponding satiation return of 1.4413. The expected
met for the difference between the current maxi-
utility maximization algorithm gives the optimal
mum and minimum swap amounts.
The overall algorithm for finding the maxi- portfolio shown in the second column of Table 4. It
mum expected utility portfolio is thus as follows: is precisely the same portfolio shown for the mean–
1. Find a feasible portfolio. variance-optimal portfolio. The reason is that qua-
2. Determine the best possible two-asset swap. dratic utility parameter k was set to a value deter-
3. If no such swap is feasible, terminate the analysis. mined by riskless rate of return r, expected return
4. If a swap is feasible, compute the best magni- e, and variance v of the optimal portfolio found
tude for the swap and revise the portfolio. earlier, as follows:4
5. Repeat, starting at Step 2, until the condition in e−r
k= . (8)
Step 3 is met. v + e2 − re

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Expected Utility Asset Allocation

In this case, the same portfolio is optimal for initial level of return, will cause a given percentage
an investor maximizing e –v/t where t = 0.70 and decrease in marginal utility. With respect to total
one maximizing expected utility where utility return, R, an investor with b > 0 has decreasing
equals R – (k/2)R2 and k = 0.6938. A lower value of relative risk aversion whereas an investor with b < 0
k would result in a recommended portfolio with a has increasing relative risk aversion.
greater mean and variance, and a higher value of k The first column in Panel A of Table 5 shows
would result in a more conservative portfolio. In the results obtained from using the expected utility
any event, the algorithm will produce a mean– optimization (Max EU) method with the return data
variance-efficient portfolio whenever the utility from Table 1 and the 0.25 probability of each return
function is quadratic. Thus, as I claimed, mean– for an investor with constant relative risk aversion
variance optimization can be considered a special (b = 0) and a risk-aversion coefficient, c, of 4. Upper
case of the more general expected utility optimiza- and lower bounds on asset holdings were set to
tion approach. allow short positions in any asset, but none were
binding. As can be seen, the optimal Max EU port-
“HARA” Utility Functions. Although the folio includes long holdings in all three assets, with
optimization algorithm can be used for an investor
a larger holding in bonds than in stocks. Panel B of
with a quadratic utility function, its main advan-
Table 5 shows the returns on this portfolio in the
tage is the ability to find an optimal portfolio for an
four states of the world. The first column in Panel
investor with another type of utility function. The
C of Table 5 provides key characteristics of the Max
only requirements are that the expected utility of
EU portfolio. The first characteristic is the certainty-
the portfolio be a separable additive function of the
equivalent return (CER) of this portfolio for the inves-
expected utilities in the alternative states, that mar-
tor described. The CER is the return that, if obtained
ginal utility be a decreasing function of portfolio
in every state, would provide the same expected
return, and that the only constraints be upper and
utility as the portfolio itself. As can be seen, the
lower bounds on asset holdings.
portfolio derived by the Max EU method is as desir-
To illustrate, consider a function of considerable
able for this investor as a return of 1.0654, which is
generality known as a HARA function (because an
considerably greater than the riskless rate of inter-
investor with such a function exhibits “hyperbolic
est (1.050). Importantly, no other feasible portfolio
absolute risk aversion”). Specifically, the investor’s
can provide a greater CER for this investor.
utility is related to portfolio return as follows:
The remaining characteristics in Table 5 are the

u (R) =
(R − b)1−c , (9)
conventional statistics for the portfolio: expected
1− c return, standard deviation of return, and Sharpe
where c is the risk-aversion coefficient. The value ratio (the ratio of expected return minus the riskless
of b can be considered the investor’s minimum rate to standard deviation).
required level of return because the marginal utility
of increasing return above this level is infinite. Table 5. Max EU and Equal-Risk Max MV
Thus, only values of R greater than b should be Portfolios
considered. Above this level, the investor’s mar-
Max EU Max MV
ginal utility will be related to portfolio return by Portfolio Optimal Optimal

m (R) = (R − b)− c . (10) A. Weight


Cash 0.0885 0.2956
In most cases, c will be greater than 1, although the Bonds 0.5101 0.2347
marginal utility equation (which is the only one Stocks 0.4014 0.4698
needed for the algorithm) may be used when c
equals 1 (and utility is equal to the logarithm of B. Returns
return) or when c is less than 1 and positive. State 1 0.9579 0.9463
State 2 1.0327 1.0520
An important special case arises when b is zero.
State 3 1.1440 1.1459
In such a case, the investor is said to have constant
State 4 1.1896 1.1811
relative risk aversion. For such an investor, a given
percentage increase in return will cause a given C. Characteristics
percentage decrease in marginal utility, regardless CER 1.0654 1.0651
of the initial level of return. More generally, a given Expected return 1.0810 1.0813
percentage increase in return over and above the Standard deviation 0.0911 0.0911
minimum required level (R – b), regardless of the Sharpe ratio 0.3406 0.3436

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Financial Analysts Journal

The second column in Table 5 shows the char- Key to all these approaches is the goal that a
acteristics of a portfolio obtained with mean– set of return forecasts conform with or be based on
variance optimization (Max MV) chosen to have the a view of the nature of equilibrium in capital mar-
same standard deviation of return. As can be seen, kets and with the current market values of the
its composition is considerably different, with a sub- assets in question. In many cases, asset allocation
stantially smaller position in bonds than in stocks. studies are intended to find asset mixes that would
Table 5 also shows that the two approaches to be appropriate under the assumption that the mar-
optimization provide quite different returns in the kets for major asset classes are informationally effi-
states. In particular, the Max MV portfolio has a cient, in the sense that prices fully reflect available
lower return in the worst state (State 1), a lower information about the uncertain future prospects
return in the best state, and higher returns in the for those asset classes. Such forecasts are sometimes
intermediate states. By design, it has the same stan- termed “efficient market forecasts” or “passive
dard deviation of return as the Max EU portfolio forecasts.” Investors who aspire to choose an asset
and, given the manner of its derivation, a higher allocation based on efficient market assumptions
assume that asset classes are priced reasonably,
expected return and Sharpe ratio. But it is nonethe-
although they may assume that within asset
less inferior in terms of the expected utility for the
classes, some securities are mispriced.
investor in question: Its CER of 1.0651 is 3 basis
In some cases, analysts prefer to use forecasts
points smaller than the Max EU CER of 1.0654.
for an asset allocation study that incorporate an
Clearly, a mean–variance-optimal portfolio assumption that some or all asset classes are mis-
may not be optimal for an investor with nonqua- priced. This approach nonetheless requires an
dratic utility. Such an investor might willingly underlying set of forecasts consistent with correct
accept a portfolio with a lower Sharpe ratio than is pricing of all asset classes. I concentrate here on the
available at the same risk level as conventionally derivation of efficient market forecasts and leave
measured (by standard deviation of return). Simi- for later research the subject of possible adjust-
larly, an investor with quadratic utility might ments to reflect perceived mispricing.
choose a portfolio with a lower CER as measured
by an investor with some other type of utility func- Mean–Variance Reverse Optimization. The
tion. Given diverse investor preferences, there standard mean–variance approach to reverse opti-
should be diverse portfolio holdings. The expected mization assumes that the conditions of the CAPM
utility optimization procedure allows one to find hold—that is, that a particular relationship exists
preferred asset holdings for investors whose utility between each asset’s expected return and a measure
functions differ in form as well as in parameters. based on asset risks, correlations, and the current
market values of the asset classes. In many cases,
practitioners use historical standard deviations and
Reverse Optimization correlations, either directly or with some modifica-
Whether a mean–variance or expected utility tion, as predictions of the corresponding future risks
approach is used for asset allocation optimization, and correlations. Asset expected returns are in these
the quality of the result depends crucially on the cases determined from current asset market values
meaningfulness of the inputs. Such inputs should, and the conditions of the CAPM.
at the very least, take into account historical The CAPM implies that in equilibrium, each
returns, current asset market values, and the best asset’s expected excess return over the riskless rate
possible assumptions about relationships among of interest is proportional to the asset’s beta value,
returns in capital markets. which is, in turn, based on the asset’s covariance
Formal procedures for setting realistic inputs with the market portfolio of all asset classes. Given
have been developed for use in mean–variance a set of asset standard deviations and correlations
analyses. Some analysts use the procedures explic- and the current market values of the asset classes,
itly; others adopt judgmental approaches moti- one can easily compute each asset’s beta value.
vated by such considerations. This section begins Then, given an assumed expected return for the
by describing the standard reverse optimization market portfolio, one can compute each asset’s
procedure applied in a mean–variance context. expected return. The resultant set of return forecasts
Next, I provide a more general approach that uses can then be considered efficient market forecasts.
expected utility and show that with the assumption This process is equivalent to solving a mean–
of quadratic utility, the same results can be variance optimization process in reverse; hence the
obtained as with the standard approach. Finally, I name. As we have seen, a mean–variance optimi-
show that the more general approach can be used zation problem is of the form:
to reflect more general assumptions about equilib- Expected returns + Risks + Correlations
rium in capital markets. + Risk tolerance → Optimal portfolio.

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Expected Utility Asset Allocation

In reverse optimization, the market portfolio The relative values for the assets at the end of
is assumed to be optimal for a “representative the most recent year are as follows:
investor” with a particular risk tolerance. Risks Cash 0.10
and correlations are known, so the conditions for Bonds 0.30
portfolio optimality are used to find the set of
Stocks 0.60
expected returns that would give the market port-
folio as a solution to a mean–variance optimization The information in Table 6 is based entirely on his-
problem. Thus, torical information. The relative values use current
data to reflect market participants’ current forecasts
Risks + Correlations + Representative risk tolerance
of the assets’ future prospects.
+ Market portfolio → Expected returns.
The remaining information needed for the
The use of reverse optimization for obtaining reverse optimization procedure also concerns the
inputs for asset allocation studies was advocated in future. The first information is the current riskless
Sharpe (1985). Subsequently, Black and Litterman rate of interest, 1.050, and the second is an estimate
(1992) extended this approach to show how views
of the difference between the expected return of the
about asset mispricing can be used to modify the
market portfolio and the current riskless rate (or,
initial reverse optimization results. In each case,
current market values of the asset classes are used the market risk premium), which is 0.040.
to ensure that the forecasts as a whole are plausible. The goal of reverse optimization is to combine
Not every asset allocation study includes the information in Table 6 with the relative values,
reverse optimization based on current asset market the riskless rate, and the risk premium to obtain
values. This accounts in large part for the relatively relevant forecasts of possible future returns. The
frequent use of ad hoc constraints or other methods first step is to convert the returns in Table 6 to excess
to ensure plausibility for the results obtained in the returns by subtracting from each one the return on
optimization phase. The failure to use current asset the riskless asset in the year in question. The excess
market values is unfortunate because such values returns are then added to the current riskless rate
contain highly useful information about investors’ of interest to obtain forecasts more consistent with
collective assessments of the present values of the current observed market information. The result is
uncertain future prospects of asset classes. Failing the returns in Table 7.
to take this important information into account
when making crucial policy decisions is foolish.
To illustrate mean–variance reverse optimiza- Table 7. Excess Returns + Current Riskless
tion, I use the analysis that produced the forecasts Rate
in Table 1 together with the assumption that the State Cash Bonds Stocks
states are equally probable. State 1 1.0500 1.0100 0.7100
Table 6 shows the historical returns for the State 2 1.0500 0.9600 0.9600
three assets in four prior years (states). The return State 3 1.0500 1.0600 1.1100
on the first asset, cash, in each year can be thought State 4 1.0500 1.1100 1.1600
of as the yield on a one-year U.S. T-bill purchased
at the beginning of the year. The second and third The next step is to compute the projected cova-
sets of returns can be considered the returns on riances of the assets. Because the covariance of
index funds of, respectively, bonds and stocks. The assets i and j equals their correlation times the
Table 6 entries show the actual returns for each product of their standard deviations, this compu-
asset in each year in the historical period, although tation incorporates the historical risks and correla-
they are labeled State 1, State 2, and so on, to reflect tions of the assets’ excess returns. As shown earlier,
the fact that the entries will be transformed to show
the standard deviations are 0, 0.0559, and 0.1750
outcomes in alternative possible future states of the
for, respectively, cash, bonds, and stocks and the
world. To keep the analysis simple, each state is
correlation between bonds and stocks is 0.6389. The
assumed to be equally probable.
covariance matrix is shown in Table 8.

Table 6. Historical Returns


Table 8. Covariance Matrix
State Cash Bonds Stocks
Cash Bonds Stocks
State 1 1.0600 1.0200 0.7200
State 2 1.0700 0.9800 0.9800 Cash 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
State 3 1.0600 1.0700 1.1200 Bonds 0.000000 0.003125 0.006250
State 4 1.0500 1.1100 1.1600 Stocks 0.000000 0.006250 0.030625

September/October 2007 www.cfapubs.org 25


Financial Analysts Journal

To compute the beta of every security relative which the market portfolio is optimal will equal
to the current market portfolio requires combining twice the market portfolio’s variance divided by the
the information in Table 8 with the relative values. market risk premium. In this case, the resulting
The beta value for an asset is its covariance with the “market risk tolerance” equals 0.6778. In effect, the
market portfolio divided by the variance of the market prices of the assets are those that would
market portfolio. The covariance of an asset with prevail if there were a single investor with quadratic
the market portfolio is a weighted average of its utility who wished to maximize e – (v/0.6778). Such
covariances with the assets, where the market port- an investor is often termed the “representative
folio proportions are the weights. The variance of investor.” In a world of unconstrained investors
the market portfolio is the weighted average of the with quadratic utility, this is a reasonable interpre-
asset covariances with the market, where the mar- tation, with the market risk tolerance equal to a
ket proportions are the weights. These formulas wealth-weighted average of the risk tolerances of
give the following beta values: the actual investors. In a more realistic setting, how-
Cash 0.0000 ever, the relationship is likely to be more complex.
Bonds 0.3458 Nonetheless, it is useful to characterize asset returns
Stocks 1.4938 as consistent with a capital market with a single
Given these beta values, the market risk pre- representative investor of a particular type.
mium (0.040), and the riskless rate of interest (1.050), Although I use the term “representative inves-
it is straightforward to compute a set of security tor,” I emphasize that the key ingredient in all that
expected returns consistent with the CAPM. The follows is the use of a marginal utility function
expected return on a security is simply the riskless consistent with market equilibrium. It will reflect
rate of interest plus the security’s beta value times the marginal utility functions of actual investors but
the market risk premium. The results of these calcu- may not be a simple weighted average of their
lations are the following expected returns: individual marginal utility functions. A more
appropriate term for the market function in ques-
Cash 1.0500
tion is the “asset pricing kernel,” although for
Bonds 1.0638
expository purposes, I will continue to refer to it as
Stocks 1.1098
“the marginal utility function of the representative
Computation of efficient market forecasts for investor.” For an in-depth discussion of this issue,
a standard mean–variance optimization is now see Sharpe (2007).
complete. The information required for the optimi-
zation phase is the expected returns and the cova-
riance matrix in Table 8. Importantly, these
Obtaining Return Forecasts by
parameters take into account historical informa- Reverse Optimization
tion about asset return variability and covariabil- As previously, I assume that optimization will be
ity, the current market values of the asset classes, based on a discrete set of possible future asset returns
the current riskless rate of interest, the estimated in alternative future states of the world and the prob-
future market risk premium, and an assumed set abilities associated with those states. The goal is to
of relationships that would obtain in a market develop a reverse optimization procedure that can
conforming with the CAPM. produce such a set of forecasts. I show first how this
The covariance matrix in Table 8 and the goal can be reached in a standard mean–variance
expected returns were the inputs used for the setting; then, I provide a more general approach.
mean–variance-optimization analysis in the ear-
lier section of this article. The proportions in Table MV Reverse Optimization. In the previous
4 for the optimal MV portfolio can thus be consid- example, the standard mean–variance reverse opti-
ered the appropriate strategy to be followed by a mization procedure used the returns in Table 7 to
mean–variance investor with a risk tolerance of generate the covariance matrix in Table 8. Then, the
0.70 operating in a market in which the market covariance matrix and the current market portfolio
portfolio is mean–variance efficient and the risk were used to determine asset beta values. Finally,
premium is 4 percent. the beta values were combined with the riskless
return and the market risk premium to determine
The Representative Investor. When opti- the expected returns: cash, 1.0500; bonds, 1.0638;
mization inputs are created by using mean–variance and stocks,1.1098. The present goal is to provide a
reverse optimization, the solution for one specific procedure that will produce a return table and set
level of risk tolerance will be the market portfolio. of probabilities consistent with the covariance
The risk tolerance in the objective function e – v/t for matrix in Table 8 and these expected returns.

26 www.cfapubs.org ©2007, CFA Institute


Expected Utility Asset Allocation

The approach is quite simple. Adding a (pos- returns, the current riskless return, an assumption
sibly zero or negative) constant to the return on an about the expected return on the market, the cur-
asset in every state will not affect its covariance rent values of the assets, and an assumption that
with any other asset. Thus, for each asset class, a equilibrium in the capital markets obtains and is
constant can be selected that will give the desired consistent with a representative investor who cares
expected return without altering the asset risks, only about portfolio mean and variance. The fore-
correlations, and covariances. casts are thus efficient market forecasts with no
The goal is to select a set of differences, di , alterations to reflect possible mispricing.
such that the new return, Ris , for each asset in each
state is equal to the old return, R 0is, plus the EU Reverse Optimization. Now consider the
selected difference: more general approach to reverse optimization. To
preserve the information about return variation
Ris = Ris0 + di . (11) and covariation contained in historical returns, I
Taking expected values over states gives take as a constraint the requirement that each new
return for an asset in a state be equal to the old
( )
E (Ri ) = E Ri0 + di . (12) return in that state plus a constant. The constants,
however, must be consistent with the requirement
In this case, the old expected returns are
that the market portfolio provide the maximum
probability-weighted averages of the four years
expected utility for the representative investor.
for each of the assets shown in Table 7. The first
Note first that when using the desired new
column in Table 9 shows those expected returns;
returns, the market portfolio’s return in a state will
the second column shows the desired expected
equal its return in that state when the old returns
returns listed previously; and the third column
are used plus the market value–weighted sum of
shows the constant di to be added to each asset’s
the asset constants:
old return to give the desired expected return.
Rms = ∑ xim Ris = ∑ xim Ris0 + ∑ xim di . (13)
i i i
Table 9. MV Reverse Optimization: Constants
For each state, the new return on the market will
for New Returns
equal the old return plus a constant, dm, which will,
Old Expected New Expected
in turn, equal a value-weighted sum of the asset
Asset Return Return Difference
constants:
Cash 1.0500 1.0500 0.0000
Bonds 1.0350 1.0638 0.0288 d m = ∑ xim di . (14)
Stocks 0.9850 1.1098 0.1248 i
But this value must be set to produce the desired
Table 10 shows the set of returns obtained by expected return on the market portfolio—the sum
adding these constants to the adjusted returns— of the risk-free rate and the market risk premium:
that is, the excess returns plus the risk-free rate.5 As
intended, this set of returns will have the same
E (Rm ) = E Rm ( )
0 +d .
m (15)
covariance matrix as the returns in Table 7 and the The old and new values and the constant to be
desired expected returns as shown in Table 9. added to each old market expected return are as
follows:
Old value = 1.0065
Table 10. MV Reverse Optimization: New
Security Returns New value = 1.0900
State Cash Bonds Stocks dm = 0.0835
State 1 1.0500 1.0388 0.8348 Adding 0.0835 to every market return gives the
State 2 1.0500 0.9888 1.0848 following new market returns:
State 3 1.0500 1.0888 1.2348 State 1 0.9175
State 4 1.0500 1.1388 1.2848 State 2 1.0525
State 3 1.1725
Note that Table 10 is the same as Table 1. In State 4 1.2175
fact, Table 10 is the origin of Table 1 that was used I now turn to the conditions required for a
for the optimization examples. The forecasted portfolio to maximize expected utility. Recall first
returns for the assets in alternative states were that the marginal expected utility of asset i will be
produced in the manner shown here from historical related to its returns in the states and the marginal

September/October 2007 www.cfapubs.org 27


Financial Analysts Journal

expected utilities for the states. For an investor who But Equation 11 shows that the return on asset
holds the market portfolio, the marginal expected i in state s is its old return plus di . Thus, di must be
utility of that portfolio will be set so that
meum = ∑ Rms π s m (Rms ).
s
(16) ∑ (Riso + di ) π s m (Rms ) = R f ∑ π s m (Rms ). (23)
s s
Moreover, for such an investor, the marginal The required value of di is thus
expected utility of the risk-free asset, which returns
Rf in every state, will be R f ∑ s π s m (Rms ) − ∑ s Ris0 π s m (Rms )
di = . (24)
meu f = R f ∑ π s m (Rms ). ∑ s π s m (Rms )
(17)
s The resulting di values are
But each of these assets sells for the same price, $1. Cash 0.0000
Hence, for the market portfolio to be optimal, the Bonds 0.0288
assets’ marginal expected utilities must be the same: Stocks 0.1248
∑ Rms π s m (Rms ) = R f ∑ π s m (Rms ). (18) The market value–weighted average of these di
s s values is 0.0835, the value computed earlier to be
All the values in Equation 18 are given; only added to each market return to obtain the desired
the form and parameters of the representative expected return on the market portfolio.
investor’s marginal utility function are free to be The two procedures will always give the same
determined. I illustrate the manner in which this value, whether the utility function is quadratic or
can be done in two cases. not, as can be seen by multiplying either Equation
■ EU Reverse Optimization with Quadratic 23 or Equation 24 by xi and summing over the assets.
Utility. In this section, I assume that the represen- Table 11 shows the resulting new returns by
tative investor’s utility function is quadratic; thus, asset class and state. Not surprisingly, they are the
the marginal utility function is linear. That is, same as the ones shown in Table 10 and Table 1.
Thus, this general approach gives the same results
m (Rms ) = 1 − kRms . (19) as the standard mean–variance optimization
Substituting Equation 19 in Equation 18 and sim- when the representative investor’s utility function
plifying gives is quadratic.

( )
E (Rm ) − kE Rm2 = R f − kR f E (Rm ) . (20)
Table 11. EU Reverse Optimization’s New
For Equation 20 to hold, the value of k must
Returns: Quadratic Utility
satisfy
State Cash Bonds Stocks
E (Rm ) − R f State 1 1.0500 1.0388 0.8348
k= .
( ) − R f E (Rm)
(21)
E Rm2 State 2 1.0500 0.9888 1.0848
State 3 1.0500 1.0888 1.2348
Using the new market returns—namely, State 4 1.0500 1.1388 1.2848
State 1 0.9175
State 2 1.0525 ■ EU Reverse Optimization with HARA Utility.
State 3 1.1725 Now consider the second case. Here, the represen-
State 4 1.2175 tative investor is characterized by a HARA utility
—gives a value of k equal to 0.6998. The market function. Thus,
portfolio will be optimal for a quadratic utility −c
investor with this value of k and hence a satiation m (Rms ) = (Rms − b) . (25)
return level, 1/k, of 1.4289. As before, the marginal expected utility of the
What remain to be determined are the constants market portfolio must equal that of the riskless
to be added to the individual asset returns. This is asset, as in Equation 18. Thus, the goal is to find
easily accomplished. Because every asset costs $1, values of b and c that satisfy
the marginal expected utility for each asset must be
−c ⎤
the same. For example, the marginal utility of asset ∑ Rms π s ⎡⎢⎣( Rms − b) ⎥⎦
i must equal that of the riskless asset—that is, s
(26)
−c ⎤
∑ Ris π s m (Rms ) = R f ∑ π s m (Rms ). = R f ∑ π s ⎡( Rms − b ) .
s s
(22)
s ⎣⎢ ⎦⎥

28 www.cfapubs.org ©2007, CFA Institute


Expected Utility Asset Allocation

There are multiple pairs of such values. To expected utilities. Of particular interest is mrss , the
simplify, one can prespecify the value of b, then marginal rate of substitution of the riskless asset
solve for c. Because the equation is nonlinear, a that pays $1 in every state for a state claim paying $1
search over alternative values of c is required, but in state s. Letting Rps be the return on the investor’s
it can be done quickly by using any standard pro- portfolio in state s, we find

( ) .
cedure. If desired, the procedure can be repeated
for different values of b and then the most realistic π s m R ps
mrss = (27)
combination chosen.
For this example, I assume that b = 0, so the
∑ s π s m (R ps )
representative investor will have constant relative Because the riskless asset costs $1 and returns
risk aversion (an assumption frequently made Rf , the marginal rate of substitution of present value
when calibrating asset-pricing models). With his- for the riskless asset is 1/Rf . Thus, the marginal rate
torical returns from Table 6, the relative values of of substitution of present value for a state claim
the current market portfolio (cash, 0.10; bonds, 0.30; paying $1 in state s is equal to the product of the
stocks, 0.60), and the current forecasts for the risk- two marginal rates of substitution. This product
less rate (1.050) and risk premium (0.040), the value can be considered ps , the representative investor’s
for c is found to be 2.9868. reservation price or, more simply, the state price for
Once the values of b and c have been specified, the state claim:
it is straightforward to compute the marginal
expected utility for each state. Then, the di values ps =
( ) .
π s m R ps
(28)
can be computed by using the procedure followed R f ∑ s π s m (R ps )
earlier. Table 12 compares the results with those for
The state prices for the HARA example would be
the quadratic utility function. As can be seen, the
data differ, but not by large amounts. State 1 $0.3700
State 2 $0.2456
State 3 $0.1779
Table 12. EU Reverse Optimization: Portfolio State 4 $0.1589
Differences Not surprisingly, they sum to 1/1.05.
Asset For Quadratic Utility For HARA Utility In a reverse optimization, the reservation state
Cash 0.0000 0.0000 prices can be used as estimates of the values of
Bonds 0.0288 0.0269 assets not included explicitly in the analysis. Any
Stocks 0.1248 0.1257 asset that is traded should sell for a price close to
the value computed from the state prices. This
Table 13 shows the forecasted returns obtained allows evaluation of the extent to which the derived
by adding the di values to the returns for the assets. representative investor’s utility function provides
Of course, these differ from the returns in Table 11, a reasonable characterization of equilibrium in the
which were based on a quadratic utility function, capital market and the returns on the assets in it.
but again, not by large amounts. To illustrate, assume that there is a traded put
option on the stock index fund with an exercise price
of $1. It will be in the money only if State 1 occurs.
Table 13. EU Reverse Optimization’s New Assuming that adjustments are made for dividends,
Returns: HARA Utility it will pay $0.0825 in State 1 and 0 in every other
State Cash Bonds Stocks state. Its price should thus equal 0.3700 × $0.0825, or
State 1 1.0500 1.0369 0.8357 $0.0305. If the actual price differs significantly from
State 2 1.0500 0.9869 1.0857 this figure, the analyst may want to perform another
State 3 1.0500 1.0869 1.2357 reverse optimization with a different type of utility
State 4 1.0500 1.1369 1.2857 function or a different fixed parameter for the same
type of utility function.
More generally, the values of traded derivative
State Prices securities on underlying assets included in the
In the discussions of both optimization and reverse reverse optimization can be used to improve the
optimization, I focused on the marginal expected entire procedure. In this example, different values
utilities of states and assets. A closely related con- of b could be selected, with the results for each
cept is the rate at which an investor would be will- evaluated on the basis of the conformance of the
ing to substitute one asset or state for another. This actual prices of asset derivatives to the values com-
rate will equal the ratio of the associated marginal puted by using the associated state prices.

September/October 2007 www.cfapubs.org 29


Financial Analysts Journal

Applications cedure could be extended to cover cases in which


assets are to be allocated while liabilities are taken
This article was limited to the presentation of
into account. And the procedures could also be
expected utility approaches to asset optimization
applied in the area of risk management and bud-
and reverse optimization. Other research has the
geting. Perhaps most important is that expected
task of evaluating the practicality of such methods utility asset allocation analysis could replace many
in actual applications. A necessary condition for ad hoc procedures currently used by investment
success in applications is the creation of plausible staffs and boards. It would thus provide a single
discrete forecasts of alternative sets of asset returns. and consistent analytical approach. The practical
The potential payoffs from this approach could challenges may be formidable, but the possible
be substantial. Complex distributions of possible gains could be substantial.
future outcomes could be analyzed. Differences
between an investor’s views about the future and The author is grateful to John Watson of Financial
those reflected in asset prices could be incorporated Engines and Jesse Phillips of the University of California
by adding “alpha values” to asset returns and/or for careful reviews of earlier drafts and a number of
changing the probabilities associated with some or helpful comments.
all of the states. A wide range of investor prefer-
This article qualifies for 1 PD credit.
ences could be considered. The optimization pro-

Notes
1. The data in all the tables are rounded. For the calculations, 3. The use of the symbol for pi for probability may cause some
however, the original values were used. The data in Table confusion, but the mnemonic value is considerable, and
1 were produced by using reverse optimization. For the presence of a subscript should serve as a reminder that
details, see the subsequent discussion and the description this is not 3.14159 . . . .
of Table 10. 4. The relationship in Equation 8 can be derived from the
2. In this and some subsequent formulas, I use two or more characteristics of the two optimization problems.
letters for some variable names. This convention is familiar 5. As indicated in Note 1, values shown in this article are
to those who write computer programs but may cause rounded. For those wishing to replicate the results, the
consternation for some mathematicians. Hopefully, the constants added to bonds and stocks to produce Table 10
meanings of the formulas will be plain in context. were, respectively, 0.02883125864454 and 0.1247510373444.

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30 www.cfapubs.org ©2007, CFA Institute

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