Professional Documents
Culture Documents
FORECASTING
4-1
Outline
What Is Forecasting?
Forecasting Time Horizons
The Strategic Importance of Forecasting
Forecasting Approaches
Qualitative Methods
Quantitative Methods
4-2
Outline – Continued
Time-Series Forecasting
Decomposition of a Time Series
Naive Approach
Moving Averages
Exponential Smoothing
Exponential Smoothing with Trend
Adjustment
Trend Projections
Seasonal Variations in Data
Cyclical Variations in Data
4-3
Outline – Continued
Associative Forecasting Methods:
Regression and Correlation
Analysis
Monitoring and Controlling
Forecasts
Adaptive Smoothing
Focus Forecasting
Forecasting in the Service Sector
4-4
What is Forecasting?
Process of predicting
a future event
Underlying basis
of all business
??
decisions
Production
Inventory
Personnel
Facilities
4-5
The Realities!
4-6
Forecasting Time Horizons
Short-range forecast
Up to 1 year, generally less than 3 months
Purchasing, job scheduling, workforce
levels, job assignments, production levels
Medium-range forecast
3 months to 3 years
Sales and production planning, budgeting
Long-range forecast
3+ years
New product planning, facility location,
research and development
4-7
Influence of Product Life
Cycle
Introduction – Growth – Maturity – Decline
4-8
Product Life Cycle
Introduction Growth Maturity Decline
Product design Forecasting Standardization Little product
and critical Fewer product differentiation
development Product and changes, more Cost
OM Strategy/Issues
Figure 2.5
4-9
Forecasting Approaches
Qualitative Methods
Used when little data exist
New products
New technology
Involves perception, experience
e.g., forecasting sales on
Internet
4 - 10
Qualitative Methods
4 - 11
Quantitative Approaches
Used when situation is ‘stable’ and
historical data exist
Existing products
Current technology
Involves mathematical techniques
e.g., forecasting sales of LCD
televisions
4 - 12
Quantitative Approaches
1. Naive approach
2. Moving averages
time-series
3. Exponential models
smoothing
4. Trend projection
5. Linear regression associative
model
4 - 13
Time Series Forecasting
4 - 14
Time Series Components
Trend Cyclical
Seasonal Random
4 - 15
Components of Demand
Trend
component
Demand for product or service
Seasonal peaks
Actual demand
line
Average demand
over 4 years
Random variation
| | | |
1 2 3 4
Time (years)
Figure 4.1
4 - 16
Trend Component
Persistent, overall upward or
downward pattern
Changes due to population,
technology, age, culture, etc.
Typically several years
duration
4 - 17
Seasonal Component
Regular pattern of up and
down fluctuations
Due to weather, customs, etc.
Occurs within a single year
Number of
Period Length Seasons
Week Day 7
Month Week 4-4.5
Month Day 28-31
Year Quarter 4
Year Month 12
Year Week 52
4 - 18
Cyclical Component
Repeating up and down movements
Affected by business cycle,
political, and economic factors
Multiple years duration
0 5 10 15 20
4 - 19
Random Component
Erratic, unsystematic, ‘residual’
fluctuations
Due to random variation or unforeseen
events
Short duration
and nonrepeating
M T W T F
4 - 20
Naive Approach
Assumes demand in next
period is the same as
demand in most recent period
e.g., If January sales were 68, then
February sales will be 68
Sometimes cost effective and
efficient
Can be good starting point
4 - 21
Moving Average Method
4 - 22
Moving Average Example
Actual 3-Month
Month Shed Sales Moving Average
January 10
February 12
March 13
April 16 (10 + 12 + 13)/3 = 11 2/3
May 19 (12 + 13 + 16)/3 = 13 2/3
June 23 (13 + 16 + 19)/3 = 16
July 26 (16 + 19 + 23)/3 = 19 1/3
4 - 23
Graph of Moving Average
Moving
30 –
Average
28 –
Forecast
26 – Actual
24 – Sales
Shed Sales
22 –
20 –
18 –
16 –
14 –
12 –
10 –
| | | | | | | | | | | |
J F M A M J J A S O N D
4 - 24
Moving Average Example
4 - 25
Weighted Moving Average
Used when some trend might be
present
Older data usually less important
Weights based on experience and
intuition
∑ [(weight for period n)
Weighted x (demand in period n)]
moving average = ∑ weights
4 - 26
Weights Applied Period
Weighted Moving
3 Average
Last month
2 Two months ago
1 Three months ago
6 Sum of weights
4 - 27
Potential Problems With
Moving Average
Increasing n smooths the forecast
but makes it less sensitive to
changes
Do not forecast trends well
Require extensive historical data
4 - 28
Moving Average And
Weighted Moving Average
Weighted
30 – moving
average
25 –
Sales demand
20 – Actual
sales
15 –
Moving
10 – average
5 –
| | | | | | | | | | | |
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Figure 4.2
4 - 29
Exponential Smoothing
Form of weighted moving average
Weights decline exponentially
Most recent data weighted most
Requires smoothing constant ()
Ranges from 0 to 1
Subjectively chosen
Involves little record keeping of past
data
4 - 30
Exponential Smoothing
New forecast = Last period’s forecast
+ (Last period’s actual demand
– Last period’s forecast)
Ft = Ft – 1 + (At – 1 - Ft – 1)
Ft = At – 1 + (1-)Ft – 1)
where Ft = new forecast
Ft – 1 = previous forecast
= smoothing (or weighting)
constant (0 ≤ ≤ 1)
4 - 31
Exponential Smoothing
Example
Predicted demand(t-1) = 142 Ford Mustangs
Actual demand (t-1)= 153
Smoothing constant = .20
4 - 32
Exponential Smoothing
Example
Predicted demand (t-1)= 142 Ford Mustangs
Actual demand = (t-1)153
Smoothing constant = .20
4 - 33
Exponential Smoothing
Example
Predicted demand = 142 Ford Mustangs
Actual demand = 153
Smoothing constant = .20
4 - 34
Impact of Different
225 –
Actual = .5
200 – demand
Demand
175 –
= .1
150 – | | | | | | | | |
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Quarter
4 - 35
Impact of Different
225 –
Actual = .5
200
Chose
– high values
demandof
Demand
4 - 36
.
4 - 37
.
4 - 38
Choosing
4 - 39
Common Measures of Error
4 - 40
Common Measures of Error
n
∑100|Actuali - Forecasti|/Actuali
MAPE = i=1
n
4 - 41
Example 4
• During the past 8 quarters, the Port of
Baltimore has unloaded large quantities of
grain from ships. The Port’s Operations
Manager wants to test the forecasting
method exponential smoothing to see how
well the this method works in predicting
tonnage unloaded.
• He guesses that the forecast of grain
unloaded in the first quarter was 175 tons.
4 - 42
Comparison of Forecast
Error
Rounded Absolute Rounded Absolute
Actual Forecast Deviation Forecast Deviation
Tonnage with for with for
Quarter Unloaded = .10 = .10 = .50 = .50
1 180 175 5.00 175 5.00
2 168 175.5 7.50 177.50 9.50
3 159 174.75 15.75 172.75 13.75
4 175 173.18 1.82 165.88 9.12
5 190 173.36 16.64 170.44 19.56
6 205 175.02 29.98 180.22 24.78
7 180 178.02 1.98 192.61 12.61
8 182 178.22 3.78 186.30 4.30
82.45 98.62
4 - 43
Comparison of Forecast
Error
∑ |deviations|
Rounded Absolute Rounded Absolute
MADActual
= Forecast Deviation Forecast Deviation
Tonnage n
with for with for
Quarter Unloaded = .10 = .10 = .50 = .50
1
For 180
= .10 175 5.00 175 5.00
2 168 = 82.45/8
175.5 = 10.31
7.50 177.50 9.50
3 159 174.75 15.75 172.75 13.75
4 For 175
= .50 173.18 1.82 165.88 9.12
5 190 173.36 16.64 170.44 19.56
6 205 = 98.62/8
175.02 = 12.33
29.98 180.22 24.78
7 180 178.02 1.98 192.61 12.61
8 182 178.22 3.78 186.30 4.30
82.45 98.62
4 - 44
Comparison of Forecast
Error2
∑ (forecast errors)
Rounded Absolute Rounded Absolute
MSE = Actual Forecast Deviation Forecast Deviation
Tonnage
n
with for with for
Quarter Unloaded = .10 = .10 = .50 = .50
1
For 180
= .10 175 5.00 175 5.00
2 = 1,526.54/8
168 175.5 = 190.82
7.50 177.50 9.50
3 159 174.75 15.75 172.75 13.75
4 For 175
= .50 173.18 1.82 165.88 9.12
5 190 173.36 16.64 170.44 19.56
6 = 1,561.91/8
205 175.02 = 195.24
29.98 180.22 24.78
7 180 178.02 1.98 192.61 12.61
8 182 178.22 3.78 186.30 4.30
82.45 98.62
MAD 10.31 12.33
4 - 45
Comparison of Forecast
n Error
∑100|deviation |/actual i i
Rounded Absolute Rounded Absolute
MAPE = i=1
Actual Forecast Deviation Forecast Deviation
Tonnage with n for with for
Quarter Unloaded = .10 = .10 = .50 = .50
1
= .10 175
For 180 5.00 175 5.00
2 168 = 44.75/8
175.5 = 7.50
5.59% 177.50 9.50
3 159 174.75 15.75 172.75 13.75
4 =
For 175 .50 173.18 1.82 165.88 9.12
5 190 173.36 16.64 170.44 19.56
6 205 = 54.05/8
175.02 =29.98
6.76% 180.22 24.78
7 180 178.02 1.98 192.61 12.61
8 182 178.22 3.78 186.30 4.30
82.45 98.62
MAD 10.31 12.33
MSE 190.82 195.24
4 - 46
Comparison of Forecast
Error
Rounded Absolute Rounded Absolute
Actual Forecast Deviation Forecast Deviation
Tonnage with for with for
Quarter Unloaded = .10 = .10 = .50 = .50
1 180 175 5.00 175 5.00
2 168 175.5 7.50 177.50 9.50
3 159 174.75 15.75 172.75 13.75
4 175 173.18 1.82 165.88 9.12
5 190 173.36 16.64 170.44 19.56
6 205 175.02 29.98 180.22 24.78
7 180 178.02 1.98 192.61 12.61
8 182 178.22 3.78 186.30 4.30
82.45 98.62
MAD 10.31 12.33
MSE 190.82 195.24
MAPE 5.59% 6.76%
4 - 47
Exponential Smoothing with
Trend Adjustment
When a trend is present, exponential
smoothing must be modified to respond
to trend
Forecast Exponentially Exponentially
including (FITt) = smoothed (Ft) + smoothed (Tt)
trend forecast trend
4 - 48
Exponential Smoothing with
Trend Adjustment
Ft = (At - 1) + (1 - )(Ft - 1 + Tt - 1)
Tt = b(Ft - Ft - 1) + (1 - b)Tt - 1
Step 1: Compute Ft
Step 2: Compute Tt
Step 3: Calculate the forecast FITt = Ft + Tt
4 - 49
EXAMPLE
Table 4.1
4 - 51
Exponential Smoothing with
Trend Adjustment Example
Forecast
Actual Smoothed Smoothed Including
Month(t) Demand (At) Forecast, Ft Trend, Tt Trend, FITt
1 12 11 2 13.00
2 17
3 20
4 19
5 24 Step 1: Forecast for Month 2
6 21
7 31 F2 = A1 + (1 - )(F1 + T1)
8 28 F2 = (.2)(12) + (1 - .2)(11 + 2)
9 36
10 = 2.4 + 10.4 = 12.8 units
Table 4.1
4 - 52
Exponential Smoothing with
Trend Adjustment Example
Forecast
Actual Smoothed Smoothed Including
Month(t) Demand (At) Forecast, Ft Trend, Tt Trend, FITt
1 12 11 2 13.00
2 17 12.80
3 20
4 19
5 24 Step 2: Trend for Month 2
6 21
7 31 T2 = b(F2 - F1) + (1 - b)T1
8 28 T2 = (.4)(12.8 - 11) + (1 - .4)(2)
9 36
10 = .72 + 1.2 = 1.92 units
Table 4.1
4 - 53
Exponential Smoothing with
Trend Adjustment Example
Forecast
Actual Smoothed Smoothed Including
Month(t) Demand (At) Forecast, Ft Trend, Tt Trend, FITt
1 12 11 2 13.00
2 17 12.80 1.92
3 20
4 19
5 24 Step 3: Calculate FIT for Month 2
6 21
7 31 FIT2 = F2 + T2
8 28 FIT2 = 12.8 + 1.92
9 36
10 = 14.72 units
Table 4.1
4 - 54
Exponential Smoothing with
Trend Adjustment Example
Forecast
Actual Smoothed Smoothed Including
Month(t) Demand (At) Forecast, Ft Trend, Tt Trend, FITt
1 12 11 2 13.00
2 17 12.80 1.92 14.72
3 20 15.18 2.10 17.28
4 19 17.82 2.32 20.14
5 24 19.91 2.23 22.14
6 21 22.51 2.38 24.89
7 31 24.11 2.07 26.18
8 28 27.14 2.45 29.59
9 36 29.28 2.32 31.60
10 32.48 2.68 35.16
Table 4.1
4 - 55
Exponential Smoothing with
Trend Adjustment Example
35 –
25 –
20 –
15 –
0 – | | | | | | | | |
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Figure 4.3
Time (month)
4 - 56
Trend Projections
Fitting a trend line to historical data points
to project into the medium to long-range
Linear trends can be found using the least
squares technique
y^ = a + bx
^ = computed value of the variable to
where y
be predicted (dependent variable)
a = y-axis intercept
b = slope of the regression line
x = the independent variable
4 - 57
Values of Dependent Variable Least Squares Method
Deviation5 Deviation6
Deviation3
Deviation4
Deviation1
(error) Deviation2
Trend line, y^ = a + bx
Deviation5 Deviation6
Deviation1
(error) Deviation2
Trend line, y^ = a + bx
y^ = a + bx
Sxy - nxy
b=
Sx2 - nx2
a = y - bx
4 - 60
Least Squares Example
Time Electrical Power
Year Period (x) Demand (megawatt) x2 xy
2006 1 74 1 74
2007 2 79 4 158
2008 3 80 9 240
2009 4 90 16 360
2010 5 105 25 525
2011 6 142 36 852
2012 7 122 49 854
∑x = 28 ∑y = 692 ∑x2 = 140 ∑xy = 3,063
x=4 y = 98.86
130 –
120 –
110 –
100 –
90 –
80 –
70 –
60 –
50 –
| | | | | | | | |
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Year
4 - 63
Seasonal Variations In Data
The multiplicative
seasonal model
can adjust trend
data for seasonal
variations in
demand (jet skis,
snow mobiles)
4 - 65
Seasonal Variations In Data
Steps in the process:
1. Find average historical demand for each season
2. Compute the average demand over all seasons
3. Compute a seasonal index for each season
4. Estimate next year’s total demand
5. Divide this estimate of total demand by the
number of seasons, then multiply it by the
seasonal index for that season
4 - 66
Seasonal Index Example
Demand Average Average Seasonal
Month 2010 2011 2012 2010-2012 Monthly Index
Jan 80 85 105 90 94
Feb 70 85 85 80 94
Mar 80 93 82 85 94
Apr 90 95 115 100 94
May 113 125 131 123 94
Jun 110 115 120 115 94
Jul 100 102 113 105 94
Aug 88 102 110 100 94
Sept 85 90 95 90 94
Oct 77 78 85 80 94
Nov 75 72 83 80 94
Dec 82 78 80 80 94
4 - 67
Seasonal Index Example
Demand Average Average Seasonal
Month 2010 2011 2012 2010-2012 Monthly Index
Jan 80 85 105 90 94 0.957
Feb 70 85 85 80 94
Mar 80 93 Average
82 85 monthly 94
2010-2012 demand
Seasonal90index95= 115Average monthly
Apr 100 demand94
May 113 125 131 123 94
= 90/94 = .957
Jun 110 115 120 115 94
Jul 100 102 113 105 94
Aug 88 102 110 100 94
Sept 85 90 95 90 94
Oct 77 78 85 80 94
Nov 75 72 83 80 94
Dec 82 78 80 80 94
4 - 68
Seasonal Index Example
Demand Average Average Seasonal
Month 2010 2011 2012 2010-2012 Monthly Index
Jan 80 85 105 90 94 0.957
Feb 70 85 85 80 94 0.851
Mar 80 93 82 85 94 0.904
Apr 90 95 115 100 94 1.064
May 113 125 131 123 94 1.309
Jun 110 115 120 115 94 1.223
Jul 100 102 113 105 94 1.117
Aug 88 102 110 100 94 1.064
Sept 85 90 95 90 94 0.957
Oct 77 78 85 80 94 0.851
Nov 75 72 83 80 94 0.851
Dec 82 78 80 80 94 0.851
4 - 69
Seasonal Index Example
Demand Average Average Seasonal
Month 2010 2011 2012 2010-2012
MonthlyIndex
Jan 80 85 105 90 94 0.957
Feb 70 85 Forecast
85 for802013 94 0.851
Mar 80 93 82 85 94 0.904
Apr 90Expected
95 115 annual demand
100 = 1,200
94 1.064
May 113 125 131 123 94 1.309
Jun 110 115 120 1,200 115 94 1.223
Jul 100 102Jan 113 x .957 = 96 94
105 1.117
12
Aug 88 102 110 100 94 1.064
1,200
Sept 85 90
Feb 95 x90
.851 = 85 94 0.957
Oct 77 78 85 12 80 94 0.851
Nov 75 72 83 80 94 0.851
Dec 82 78 80 80 94 0.851
4 - 70
Seasonal Index Example
2013 Forecast
140 – 2012 Demand
130 – 2011 Demand
2010 Demand
120 –
Demand
110 –
100 –
90 –
80 –
70 –
| | | | | | | | | | | |
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Time
4 - 71
Associative Forecasting
Used when changes in one or more
independent variables can be used to predict
the changes in the dependent variable
4 - 72
Associative Forecasting
Forecasting an outcome based on
predictor variables using the least squares
technique
y^ = a + bx
^
where y = computed value of the variable to
be predicted (dependent variable)
a = y-axis intercept
b = slope of the regression line
x = the independent variable though to
predict the value of the dependent
variable
4 - 73
Associative Forecasting
Example
Sales Area Payroll
($ millions), y ($ billions), x
2.0 1
3.0 3
2.5 4 4.0 –
2.0 2
2.0 1 3.0 –
3.5 7 Sales
2.0 –
1.0 –
| | | | | | |
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Area payroll
4 - 74
Associative Forecasting
Example
Sales, y Payroll, x x2 xy
2.0 1 1 2.0
3.0 3 9 9.0
2.5 4 16 10.0
2.0 2 4 4.0
2.0 1 1 2.0
3.5 7 49 24.5
∑y = 15.0 ∑x = 18 ∑x2 = 80 ∑xy = 51.5
| | | | | | |
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Area payroll
4 - 76
Standard Error of the
Estimate
A forecast is just a point estimate of a
future value
This point is 4.0 –
actually the 3.25
mean of a 3.0 –
Nodel’s sales
probability 2.0 –
distribution
1.0 –
| | | | | | |
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Area payroll
Figure 4.9
4 - 77
Standard Error of the
Estimate
4 - 78
Standard Error of the
Estimate
∑y2 - a∑y - b∑xy 39.5 - 1.75(15) - .25(51.5)
Sy,x = =
n-2 6-2
| | | | | | |
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Area payroll
4 - 79
Prediction Intervals
The ranges or limits of a forecast are estimated by:
Upper limit = Y + t*Sy,x
Lower limit = Y - t*Sy,x
where:
Y = forecasted value (point estimate)
t = number of standard deviations from
the mean of the distribution to provide a given
probability of exceeding the limits through chance
syx = standard error of the forecast
4 - 80
Prediction Intervals
Estimate the confidence interval for annual
sales of next year (remember payroll next
year is estimated to be $6 billion) so that the
probability that the actual sales exceeding
these limits will be approximately equal to
0.05.
Sales = 1.75 + .25(6)
Sales = $3,250,000
4 - 81
Prediction Intervals
Step 1: Compute the standard error of the
forecasts, syx.
Step 2: Determine the appropriate value for
t.
n = 6, so degrees of freedom = n – 2 = 4
level of significance = =.05
The Student’s t Distribution Table shows:
(tα/2=0.025) ) =2.78
4 - 82
Prediction Intervals
Step 3: Compute upper and lower limits.
Upper limit = $3,250,000 + 2.78 * $306,000
=$4,100,680
Lower limit = $3,250,000 - 2.78 * $306,000
= $2,399,320
We are 95% confident the actual sales for
next year will be between $2,399,320 and
$4,100,680.
4 - 83
Correlation
How strong is the linear
relationship between the variables?
Correlation does not necessarily
imply causality!
Coefficient of correlation, r,
measures degree of association
Values range from -1 to +1
4 - 84
Correlation Coefficient
nSxy - SxSy
r=
[nSx2 - (Sx)2][nSy2 - (Sy)2]
4 - 85
y y
Correlation Coefficient
nSxy - SxSy
r=
[nSx 2 - (Sx)2][nSy2 - (Sy)2]
(a) Perfect positive x (b) Positive x
correlation: correlation:
r = +1 0<r<1
y y
y^ = a + b1x1 + b2x2 …
4 - 90
Monitoring and Controlling
Forecasts
∑(Actual demand in
period i -
Forecast demand
Tracking in period i)
signal = (∑|Actual - Forecast|/n)
4 - 91
Tracking Signal
0 MADs Acceptable
range
–
Lower control limit
Time
4 - 92
Tracking Signal Example
Cumulative
Absolute Absolute
Actual Forecast Cumm Forecast Forecast
Qtr Demand Demand Error Error Error Error MAD
4 - 93
Tracking Signal Example
Tracking Cumulative
Absolute Absolute
Actual Signal
Forecast Cumm Forecast Forecast
Qtr (CummDemand
Demand Error/MAD)
Error Error Error Error MAD
1 90-10/10
100= -1 -10 -10 10 10 10.0
2 95
-15/7.5
100= -2 -5 -15 5 15 7.5
3 115 0/10
100
= 0 +15 0 15 30 10.0
4 100-10/10
110= -1 -10 -10 10 40 10.0
5 125
+5/11110
= +0.5+15 +5 15 55 11.0
6 140
+35/14.2
110= +2.5
+30 +35 30 85 14.2
4 - 95
Forecasting in the Service
Sector
Presents unusual challenges
Special need for short term records
Needs differ greatly as function of
industry and product
Holidays and other calendar events
Unusual events
4 - 96