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Typically, decline analysis is conducted on a plot of rate versus time or rate versus cumulative
production (as shown in figure above). The most commonly used trending equations are those
first documented by J.J. Arps (1945). The following figure demonstrates a match trend and
extrapolation to the EUR.
Many contemporary published papers have tried to investigate or modify the Arps decline
based on theoretical derivations. However, after 70 years, the original method is still widely in
use.
The transient flow period can last for time periods from several minutes to several years,
depending upon permeability and the areal extent of the reservoir. For most conventional
production, the transient flow period ends after a few days. Tighter reservoirs that have
permeability in the 0.5 to 1.0 mD range can have transient periods that last several months.
Reservoirs that have even lower permeabilities that require extensive fracture networks can
have transient periods that could last for several years.
Once a well has achieved boundary-dominated flow, another important consideration is the
sandface flowing pressure. For the period of production included in the decline analysis, the
sandface flowing pressure must be relatively constant before a reliable set of decline
parameters can be extracted. Factors that affect sandface flowing pressure are rate controlled
wells, changing wellhead backpressure, changing wellbore configurations, and liquid loading.
Decline Theory
The theory of all decline curve analysis begins with the concept of the nominal (instantaneous)
decline rate (a), which is defined as the fractional change in rate per unit time:
Another way of representing the decline rate is based on rate (q) and the decline exponent
constant b.
When production is plotted as flow rate vs. time, the nominal decline rate is equal to the slope
at a point in time divided by the rate at that point.
Figure 3
The behaviour of the production data can be characterized based on the way in which the
nominal decline rate varies with rate, based on the value of the decline exponent constant b.
Exponential — b = 0
Hyperbolic — b is a value other than 0 or 1
Harmonic — b = 1
Exponential
For the exponential case, b = zero. The decline rate can be shown as:
As the decline rate remains constant, the integration of the equation for decline rate results in:
Therefore, a plot of flow rate vs. time, with rate set to a logarithmic axis, will result in a straight
line.
Hyperbolic
For the hyperbolic case, b is equal to any number between zero and one. The decline rate can
be shown as:
As the decline rate is not constant, the substitution and integration of the equation for decline
rate results in:
Substituting
Substituting
It is noted that neither a plot of flow rate vs. time or flow rate vs. cumulative production will
result in a linear relation (regardless of whether rate is set to a Cartesian or logarithmic axis).
Harmonic
The harmonic case is a special case of the above hyperbolic case, where b is equal to one.
The decline rate can be shown as:
As the decline rate is not constant, the substitution and integration of the equation for decline
rate results in:
Substituting
The cumulative production is defined as:
Substituting
It is noted that a plot of flow rate vs. time will not result in a linear relation (regardless of
whether rate is set to a Cartesian or logarithmic axis). A plot of flow rate vs. cumulative
production, with rate set to a logarithmic axis, will result in a straight line.
Exponential Decline Rate: Nominal vs. Effective
When production follows an exponential decline, there are two different ways of defining the
decline rate: Nominal and Effective.
The first is the nominal decline rate, represented by the symbol "a". The nominal decline rate
is defined as:
The nominal decline rate is used to calculate the rate decline at a specific time. For a given
time, the equation for rate using nominal decline is:
The second is the effective decline rate, represented by the symbol "d". The effective decline
rate, for a particular time period (typically one year), is defined as:
The effective decline rate is used to calculate the rate decline for particular time periods. For
one time step, the equation for rate using effective decline is:
Note that the time interval is included in the equation for rate using effective decline, but is
explicitly stated in the equation for rate using nominal decline.
Although the equations for nominal and effective decline rates are different from one another,
there is a relationship that will give the same answer for q2 provided the time intervals between
q1 and q2 are the same. The relationship between the two is given by:
Note: The above equation is only valid for the exponential equations.
The difference between the two decline rates is illustrated below. In effect, the nominal decline
rate is related to the instantaneous slope of the line, whereas the effective decline rate derives
from the chord segment approximating that slope. Also, the rate by which the slope is divided
is different - instantaneous rate (q) is used in the case of nominal decline, whereas the
preceding rate (q1) is used in the case of effective decline.
The effective decline rate typically arises when dealing with flow rate data in tabular rather
than graphical format. The difference between the nominal and effective decline rates is very
small when the nominal decline rate is small, but as the nominal decline rate gets larger the
difference between the two increases. It is therefore important to use these values correctly.
where:
The limited decline rate can also be expressed as rate – cumulative production using the
following equations.
For b > 1:
For b = 1:
Values of b > 1
Decline curve analysis is based on empirical observations of production rate decline, and not
on theoretical derivations. Attempts to explain the observed behaviour using the theory of flow
in porous media lead to the fact that these empirically observed declines are related to
boundary-dominated flow. When a well is placed on production, there will be transient flow
initially. Eventually, all of the reservoir boundaries will be felt, and it is only after this time that
decline curve analysis becomes applicable. During boundary-dominated flow, the value of "b"
lies in the range of 0 to 1, depending on the reservoir boundary conditions and the recovery
mechanism.
Occasionally, decline curves with values of b > 1 are encountered. Below are some reasons
that have been presented to explain this:
The interpretation is wrong, and another value of b < 1 will fit the data.
The data is still in transient flow and has not reached boundary-dominated
flow.
Bailey (1982) showed that some fractured gas wells exhibit values of b >
1, sometimes as high as 3.5.
Decline is constant Decline is proportional to a fractional power (b) of the Decline is proportional to
Type Exponential Decline Hyperbolic Decline Harmonic Decline
Rate-Time
Rate-
Cumulative
EUR
Nomenclature
Variable Description
A Area
b Decline exponent
Pseudo-steady state constant in the flow equation using material balance pseudo-
ba,pss
time (gas)
bpss Pseudo-steady state constant in the flow equation using material balance time (oil)
Bgi Formation volume factor for gas at initial reservoir pressure and temperature
Boi Formation volume factor for oil at initial reservoir pressure and temperature
Variable Description
Bwi Formation volume factor for water at initial reservoir pressure and temperature
c Compressibility
Effective compressibility. For oil systems, includes oil, water, and formation
ce compressibilities.
For gas systems, includes gas, water, and formation compressibilities.
cep Relative change in pore volume due to formation and residual fluid expansion
cf Formation/pore compressibility
cg Gas compressibility
ci Initial compressibility
co Oil compressibility
ct Total compressibility
cT Isothermal compressibility
cw Water compressibility
Variable Description
cwip Relative change in pore volume due to water influx and production
CD Storage coefficient
Cg Gas content
D Turbulence factor
f Decimal fraction
fc Compressibility modifier
gg Geothermal gradient
G Original gas-in-place
Gf Free gas-in-place
Gr Remaining gas
h Net pay
hp Perforated interval
I Incline rate
j Time interval/timestep
J Transfer coefficient
k Permeability
kf Fracture permeability
kh Horizontal permeability
ki Initial permeability
Variable Description
kv Vertical permeability
m Slope from the flow equation using material balance time (oil)
ma Slope from the flow equation using material balance pseudo-time (gas)
nf Number of fractures
ng Gas exponent
nw Water exponent
N Original oil-in-place
p Pressure
pc Critical pressure
pd Desorption pressure
pD Dimensionless pressure
pL Langmuir pressure
po Oil pressure
pp Pseudo-pressure
̅ pp Average pseudo-pressure
pr Reduced pressure
pw Water pressure
PI Productivity index
Variable Description
PVT Pressure-Volume-Temperature
Capillary pressure
Pc SPE recommends Pc (P being the secondary symbol for pressure) to denote
capillary pressure, whereas pc is used to denote critical pressure.
q Rate
q̅ Average rate
qD Dimensionless rate
qi Initial rate
Q Cumulative production
r Radius
rw Wellbore radius
RF Recovery factor
RR Remaining Recoverable
RT Rate vs Time
s Skin
S Salinity of water
SL Surface losses
Sg Gas saturation
So Oil saturation
Sw Water saturation
t Time
ta Pseudo-time
tD Dimensionless time
T Temperature
Tc Critical temperature
Tf Formation temperature
Ti Initial temperature
Tr Reduced temperature
vg Gas velocity
vm Mixture velocity
V Volume
VR Voidage replacement
Vi Initial volume
VL Langmuir volume
Variable Description
Vp Pore volume
VT Total volume
Vw Wellbore volume
wf Fracture width
xf Fracture half-length
Xe Reservoir length
Ye Reservoir width
Zo Location of observation well from top of zone (z-direction) for rectangular reservoirs
∆k Change in permeability
∆t Forecast duration
Variable Description
∆Vep Change in reservoir volume due to formation and residual fluid expansion
Location of observation well from active well in the x-direction, for rectangular
∆Xo
reservoirs
Location of observation well from active well in the y-direction, for rectangular
∆Yo
reservoirs
∆Z Change in elevation
ε Tensile strain
Net strain between overburden stress effect and matrix shrinkage as measured
εexp
experimentally
εL Langmuir strain
θ Angle of inclination
µ̅ Average viscosity
μL Liquid viscosity
Variable Description
μm Mixture viscosity
ν Poisson's ratio
ρ Density
ρB Bulk density
ρG Gas density
ρL Liquid density
ρm Mixture density
ρo Oil density
ρw Water density
φ Porosity
φi Initial porosity
φt Total porosity
Ψ Pseudo-pressure
ω Storativity ratio