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Integrating Small Scale Green Energy into Smart Grids: Prediction for Peak Load
Reduction

Conference Paper · August 2018

DOI: 10.1109/COMAPP.2018.8460222

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 Integrating Small Scale Green Energy into Smart
Grids: Prediction for Peak Load Reduction
Sonam Rinchen∗ , Abdulsalam Yassine∗ , Kevin Schwartzentruber∗ , Hamsa Ahmed∗ , Andy Armitage†
∗ Department
of Software Engineering, Lakehead University, 955 Oliver Road,Thunder Bay, Canada
† Faculty
of Business, Lakehead University, 955 Oliver Road,Thunder Bay, Canada
srinchen@lakeheadu.ca, ayassine@lakeheadu.ca, kschwart@lakeheadu.ca, hahmed7@lakeheadu.ca, ajarmita@lakeheadu.ca

Abstract—The emerging Smart Grid technologies allow for the

integration of clean energy from small-scale energy generators
(SEGs). In this paper, we investigate a model by which an electric
grid operator (EGOs) schedules the integration of clean energy
from residential homes acting as SEGs. These SEGs are equipped
with rooftop photovoltaic (PV) and a bank of utility grade battery
systems. The challenge facing the electric grid operator (EGO) is
that home-based battery systems require several hours of sunlight
to charge from rooftop PV panels, and an average 90 minutes to
be discharged to 30% original capacity. The EGO must be able to
schedule the discharging cycle so that it coincides with the time of
the highest peak load during the day for efficient cost reduction.
In this paper, we propose a model that allows the EGO to predict
the highest peak of energy consumption on the distribution feed
where the SEGs are connected. For the realization of the system,
we have acquired a dataset which includes time series of energy
consumption data for approximately 1500 houses including 3
SEGs. We performed our prediction using the multivariate
autoregressive integrated moving average (MARIMA) method
and achieved 92.64% accuracy. The real-life implementation of
the system and the prediction model are described in this paper.
I. I NTRODUCTION
Recently, Small-scale Energy Generators (SEGs) such as
residential houses, small businesses, and communities, are be-
coming integral players in stabilizing the electric grid system
[1]. SEGs utilize systems such as rooftop solar photo voltaic
(PV) power systems and wind turbine stations for energy
generation. The generated energy is either fed into the power
grid directly based on an incentive policy mechanism as in
the Feed-in Tariff (FiT) policy in Ontario, Canada or stored
locally in batteries for future use [2]. The former approach
concerns government regulated markets where licensed util-
ity companies sell electricity. In the latter approach, energy
producers can freely trade energy in semi-regulated or open
electricity markets. The research in this paper focuses on the
latter approach. Specifically, we study the integration of clean
energy into smart grid from home-based battery systems. In
this situation, the challenge facing the electric grid operator
(EGO) is that home-based battery systems require several
hours of sunlight to charge from rooftop solar panels, and an
average 90 minutes to be discharged to 30% original capacity
[3] [4]. The EGO must be able to schedule the discharging
cycle so that it coincides with the time of the highest peak
load during the day for efficient cost reduction.
The above problem is illustrated in figure 1. The peak
load in the shaded square includes the highest load (582214
Fig. 1. One Day of Energy Consumption of a Power feed for 1500 houses,
5 minute intervals
KW)in 24 hour period. The data in the figure is an actual
aggregated daily consumption data from approximately 1500
houses connected to a power distribution system in Thunder
Bay, Ontario, Canada. In this example, the EGO must schedule
the discharging process within the shaded square area, other-
wise will not be able to benefit from reducing the cost of the
maximum peak load. However, accurately determining when
the time of the highest peak is going to occur is practically a
challenging prospect. In this paper, we investigate and develop
a novel prediction algorithm that determines the peak load
using machine learning algorithms and weather data. Our
mechanism allows the EGO to determine the time of the
highest peak load with high accuracy.
Prediction mechanisms for peak load reduction have been
explored extensively in the past. The most common approaches
that are close to our work employ machine learning models
for short-term load forecasting (STLF). For example, the
work in [5] and [6] use Artificial Neural for STLF while
[7] and [8] use fuzzy logic technique and random forest
techniques to relax the complexities of non-linear forecasting
models. Other studies such as [9] and [10] implement Support
Vector Regression (SVR) instead of Artificial Neural Networks
(ANN) for adaptive STLF. For a daily forecast of peak load
demand, the work in [11] and [12] proposed hybrid mecha-
nisms that combine statistical approaches and AI models. The
work in [15] proposes an adaptive univariate and multivariate
approach to select the best forecasting model among several
methods in the system as a means of coping with forecasting
errors. The work proposed in [16] used Bayesian networks
to predict time series of energy consumption for short and
long term forecasting. Other work such as [14] analyze energy
consumption data to predict contributors to peak hours while
in [13] the focus is on identifying activities for healthcare
applications.The above-discussed approaches are genuine, but
they suffer from shortcoming when real-world guarantees must
be satisfied for meaningful end-user applications. In this paper,
we study the issue from a practical point of view and propose a
system that applies to real-world scenarios where the size and
the resolution of the data generated from smart meters vary
according to the utility’s cyber infrastructure. Our prediction
model is based on the multivariate autoregressive integrated
moving average (MARIMA) method [18]. The preliminary
results of deploying the prediction mechanism are presented in
this paper including the accuracy for determining the highest
peak load of the underlying distribution power feed.
The rest of the paper is organized as follows: In section II,
we present the components of the proposed platform followed
by a study case in section III. Finally, in section IV we
conclude the paper and provide direction for future work.
II. S YSTEM OVERVIEW
In our system, there are several houses equipped with
solar panels and utility grade battery systems connected to
electric distribution power feeds. The EGO monitors the home
batteries via a direct control mechanism and discharges them
during peak times. The following are the main requirements
for the EGO to discharge the batteries into the power feed.
• The EGO must collect daily data about the status of the
power feed and predict the peak times. It is of utmost
importance to determine the time of the highest peak to
reduce the cost of paying for extra energy.
• Energy load is a stream of large time series data at
high resolution. Processing such vast amount of continu-
ous data requires a cost-effective and resource efficient
mechanism that meets the requirements of the timely
integration of clean energy into the electric power grid.
• The EGO must also have a mechanism to acquire past
and future weather forecasts to predict the energy load
on the feeder. Weather status plays a significant role in
consumers’ energy consumption behavior.
• Home batteries depend on solar panels to charge. They
take longer time to charge than discharge due to the
intermittent availability of sunlight especially during Win-
ter season. Therefore, the EGO practically has one time
window during the day to discharge the batteries into the
grid system
To support the above requirements, this paper presents a
platform capable of processing and analyzing a large volume
of energy consumption data streaming from the utility’s power
feed. Next section provides more details about the design
approach and the prediction mechanism used to determine the
highest peak load during the day.
A. System Components
In figure (2), we describe the components of the system.
It consists of residential homes connected to the distribution
network. Through the monitoring and data collection services
(e.g., Supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA), the
EGO collects the energy consumption data about the feeds that
supply the homes with electricity. A stream of data runs every
5 minutes includes energy consumption for all consumers con-
nected to the feed. The Online analytical processing (OLAP)
database stores energy consumption about each feed for 30
days only. It must be noted here, that the 30 days historical
data is specific to our system, however, other utilities may
store data for any period. Furthermore, the frequency of data
acquisition may vary (e.g., 5 min, 15 min, etc.) depending
on the configuration of the system. Nonetheless, the OLAP
database is updated on a daily basis. The prediction and control
services are responsible for forecasting the time of the highest
peak during the day. It also controls the home battery systems
and issues signals for discharging according to the prediction
results. In our system, the utility company and the homeowners
are in a contract that allows the EGO to keep 30% of the
batteries original capacity.
B. Prediction Mechanism
In the above mentioned system, energy consumption data is
a time series data collected every 5 minutes. It gets updated
every day and stored for 30 days only. The goal is to
predict the next hours using the historical energy consumption
readings and weather data since there is correlation with
how consumer use there electricity. In this paper, we propose
the use of Multivariate Auto Regressive Integrated Average
(MARIMA) to perform the prediction [18]. The rational for
using MARIMA is as follows: First, time series models such
as ARIMA are applied with variables measured over time. In
our model, we have multiple variables affecting the prediction
including, time, energy consumption, temperature, dew point,
humidity, windspeed, visibility, pressure, wind chill. These
multi variables have varying effect on energy consumption.
Second, the model requires that data include persistence read-
ings, otherwise the error get magnified for longer period. In
our system the data is captured in fixed intervals and the goal
is to forecast for shorter time steps. Furthermore, MARIMA
models are useful for data that exhibit non-stationary due to
the presence of trend and seasonality in the observations [19].
MARIMA model is an extension to the simpler form of
Auto-Regressive (AR) and Moving-Average ((M A)) models.
Such models, in general, can be expressed as ARIMA ((p, q)
[18] where p and q represent the order of the autoregressive
and the moving average components respectively. In AR
models, the value of the a variable in one period is related
to its value in previous periods. The AR model is defined as
follows: p
X
yt = γi yt−i + t (1)
i=1
where γp is the coefficient for lagged variable in time t − p.
 Fig. 2. Residential Houses Acting as SEGs are equipped with Utility Grade Battery Banks Connected to the Electric Distribution System

In the MA model a relationship between a variable and the III. E VALUATION

residuals of the previous periods may exist. The MA model is As mentioned above, this study was conducted to predict the
defined as follow: daily peak time of power usage for EGOs. EGOs could then
q
X use the highest predicted peak hour to discharge home batteries
yt = φi t−i + t (2) which to lower energy generation cost. In our evaluation, we
i=1 used a dataset of actual energy consumption on the power
feed connecting to 1500 homes in Thunder Bay, Ontario,
where yt for (t = 1, 2, ..., N ), φp is the coefficient for lagged Canada. These data are measured in kilowatts and contain
error term in time t − q. one year energy time series collected from January 2014
Putting equation (1) and (2) together we get the ARMA to December 2014 with 5 minute resolution intervals. The
model as a combination of AR and MA. privacy of the users is assured through the aggregation of
p
X q
X all consumption values so that individual energy consumption
yt = γi yt−i + φi t−i + t (3) is not identifiable. Other forms of privacy protection that
i=1 i=1 allows sharing data is discussed in [17] [22] [23] and [21].
Furthermore, we collected for the same period the weather data
Equation (3) can be written as follows: from Environment Canada [20]. The weather data contains the
hourly measurements of Temperature, Dewpoints, Humidity,
yt = γ1 yt−1 + ... + γp yt−p + t + φ1 t−1 + ... + φq t−q (4) Windspeed, Visibility, Pressure, and Wind-chill as shown in
figure (3). Followings are step by step direction for the
Take an non-zero average µ for yt such that yt = Yt + µ, prediction of daily peak time by using MARIMA.
then the solution is:
A. Data Preparation and Processing
yt = γ1 yt−1 +...+γp yt−p +t +φ1 t−1 +...+φq t−q + µ
b (5) At first we resolved the inconsistency of data points between
power consumption and weather data. Power consumption
where µb = µ − γ1 µ − ... − γp µ data were captured every five minutes whereas weather data
The ARIMA model includes a differencing operator when were captured every one hour. In order to make data set
data with non-seasonal measurements is generated. This is consistent, we changed the five-minute interval data points
typically happen by subtracting the current values of the time into hourly data points. These data points were converted by
series from the previous values, and continues until the impact taking average of all five-minute interval data points of the
of the trend is removed. Let the first difference operator, ∆ respective hour. Furthermore, the data set were thoroughly
defined as ∆yt = yt − yt−1 = (1 − l)yt , where l is the time checked for missing and invalid value. We have averaged
lag operator. The generalized differencing form is ∆d for any all data that are missing. The data that are ready for pre-
positive integer d. diction consist of eleven different variables, namely: power
Including the difference operator in equation (3), then the consumption, Temperature, Dewpoints, Humidity, Windspeed,
ARIMA model becomes [18] Visibility, Pressure, Wind-chill, Second, Sine and Cosine. The
p q
Second, Sine and Cosine variables represent the respective date
d d
X X and time. Finally, the processed data set consists of 721 data
(1 − l) yt = (1 − l) γi yt−i + φi t−i + t (6)
i=1 i=1
points per variable. These data points were divided into two
subsets, training set and testing set. Out of 721 data points 696
were used as training set and remaining 25 were used as testing
set. The training data set was fed into the model for the pre-
diction and the testing data set was used to compare with the
predicted value. The behavior of the model is tested through
a series of variations on the model autoregressive (AR),
integration (I), and moving average (M A). The order of
these values can be acquired using the ”auto.arima(variable)”
library package forecast in the free open-source language (R)
developed at Bell Laboratories which automatically generate
a set of optimal (p, d, q) parameters. This function searches
through combinations of order parameters and picks the set
that optimizes model fit criteria. The parameters(p, d, q) are
Fig. 3. Weather data for the period between January 2014 and December
defined as follows: p(AR), the number of lag observations 2014 from Environment Canada
included in the model, also called the lag order. d(I), the
number of times that the raw observations are differenced,
also called the degree of differencing. q(M A), the size of
the moving average window, also called the order of moving
average. Table (I) shows the respective optimal (p, d, q) after
using auto.arima() function on each variable.

TABLE I
MARIMA MODEL PARAMTER C OMPONENTS

p(AR) d(I) q(M A)

Power 5 1 4
Temp 2 1 1
DewPoint 3 1 3
Humidity 5 1 3
Visibility 1 0 1
Pressure 2 1 1 Fig. 4. Correlation Coefficient of the MARIMA model
WindChill 2 1 0
Second 1 0 3
Sine 1 0 0 TABLE II
Cosine 1 0 0 C ORRESPONDING MARIMA M ODEL ACCURACY W ITH R ESPECT TO
EACH F EATURE

B. Features Selection Accuracy Feature

Temp 98.06
We developed the very first version of MARIMA model DewPoint 91.05
Humidity 90.06
by using the above corresponding parameters to check the Visibility 90.09
correlation between each feature. Figure (4) shows the corre- Pressure 69.77
lation between each feature. According to above graph, power, WindChill 78.61
Second 81.42
temperature, pressure, windchill, second and cosine scored Sine 92.03
high in correlation value, which indicate that these features Cosine 70.41
would have strong impact on predicted value whereas dew-
point, humidity, visibility and sine would have least impact on
predicted value as these features scored lowest in correlation. We ordered all features in a descending order according to
The selection of features is based on the correlation value. their correlation value and run eleven difference iterations
However, in our case it is too early for us to decide the while adding one feature in every next iteration. Figure (5)
variable selection as the lowest correlation score still has shows that after the addition of the 8th variable there were
relatively significant impact of 20%. Thus, in the next step a dip in both Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean
of the MARIMA model we try to select the optimum number Absolute Error (MAE) values. This shows that model with
of features according to the lowest error value of the prediction seven highest correlation values of features would perform
model. the best. Although we have now acquired all the information
needed to finalize the model, we could still look for more
C. Finding Optimum Number of Features ways to optimize it. We initially ran the model with all eleven
Since the previous step did not resulted in elimination variables and their respective AR, I and MA patterns; the
of single variable, we tried to find the optimum number of accuracy of it was then recorded. We then ran the model ten
features through the determination of the model accuracy. more times where each time we remove one specific feature
(leaving the other nine features) and its respective AR, I and
MA (if needed). For example, in the first iteration we ran the
model without ”Temperature” and in the second iteration we
removed ”Dewpoint” only, we then added ”Temperature” to
the model. Hence, the impact of removing each variable on
the accuracy of the model was recorded. As it is shown in table
II, after removing dewpoint, hum, vis or sin accuracy of the
model either dropped by 1% or improved by 1%. This means
above four variables barely have any impact in improving the
accuracy of the final model. Thus, we are certain that the final
model should not have those four variables. (NOTE: Power
variable was never removed in this process because power is
the depended variable)
D. Results
The final model is ready to build by using information ac-
quired in the steps above. We used the difference parameter ”I”
from Table (I) and applied ”define.dif” function of MARIMA
library package [18] on each feature. The function define.dif
returns the differenced value in one of the returned attributes
called y.dif. Like differencing, we used MA, AR parameters
of respective selected features to define the model which
would returns MA and AR pattern along with other attributes.
We then used ”marima” function of the same package with
y.dif, MA pattern and AR pattern as parameters to build
the final model. Finally, by using ”arma.forecast” function
of MARIMA library the prediction on depended features is
achieved. Figure (6) shows predicted vs actual power con-
sumption value for 30th December 2014. The predicted peak
time on this day is off by one hour. However, if the granularity
of the dataset is changed to every 15 minutes instead of every
1 hour, then same model could have its predicted peak time
off by 15 minutes. The model achieved average accuracy of
92.64%.
Fig. 5. Error results of testing MARIMA on various features
IV. C ONCLUSION AND F UTURE W ORK
This paper presented a system of integrating small-scale
energy generators into the smart grid. The prediction model
described in the paper allows electric grid operators to sched-
ule the discharge of home battery system during peak time to
balance the energy demand and reduce electricity costs. We
Fig. 6. Actual v.s Predicted Results using MARIMA Model. Predicting the
Highest Peak on December 30 2014 with accuracy 92.64 %
have showed that the proposed model can be very effective
and practical especially that it is deployed in real-life. The
data set used in this study is an actual energy consumption of
houses connected to the grid system in Thunder Bay, Ontario,
Canada. Our plan for the future is to examine new prediction
models and enhance the performance of the system so that the
prediction of the highest peak is conducted on a much granular
data points. We also plan to assess the proposed model using
additional feature selection methods and prediction models.
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