Deforestation and Bird Habitat Loss in Colombia

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1 Deforestation and bird habitat loss in Colombia
2 Authors: Pablo Jose Negret¹,², Martine Maron¹,², Richard A. Fuller², Hugh P. Possingham²,³,
3 James E.M. Watson¹,²,4, Jeremy S. Simmonds¹,²
4 ¹The University of Queensland, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Qld 4072,
5 Australia
6 ²The University of Queensland, Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, Qld 4072,
7 Australia
8 ³The Nature Conservancy, South Brisbane, Queensland 4101, Australia
9 4
Wildlife Conservation Society, Global Conservation Program, 2300 Southern Boulevard,
10 Bronx, NY 10460-1068, USA
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bioRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.30.125849. this version posted May 31, 2020. The copyright holder for this preprint (which
22 Abstract
23 Tropical forests harbor most of the planet’s terrestrial biodiversity, and their loss means
24 destruction of habitat for many species. Tropical deforestation continues at high rates in many
25 regions, but it is often reported only in terms of area lost or its impacts on high-profile
26 threatened species. We estimated the impact of both past and projected future deforestation
27 on habitat extent for the entire assemblage of forest-dependent birds across Colombia, the
28 country with more bird species than any other. Of the 550 forest-dependent species analysed,
29 Almost all (n=536; 96.5%) had lost habitat, and 18% had lost at least half of their habitat by
30 2015. We used the recently developed Loss Index (LI) to capture the severity of habitat loss
31 for the forest bird assemblage, discovering that the current LI for Colombia is 35, which
32 means 35% of bird species have lost at least 35% of their habitat. The national LI for
33 Colombia is projected to rise to 43 by 2040 if recent forest loss trends continue. There were
34 large regional differences; Caribe had an LI of 82 while for the Pacific it was 14. A threat
35 assessment for the regionally endemic species in the country showed that 12 (30%) of the
36 species that are projected to lose 50% or more of their historical habitat by 2040 are not
37 currently classified as threatened by the IUCN, suggesting that there are many species that
38 are not listed but that face an imminent extinction threat from habitat loss. This extensive
39 habitat depletion affecting entire species assemblages has significant implications for tropical
40 forest ecosystems, and risks eroding ecosystem function and ecosystem service provision.
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42 Keywords: Extent of suitable habitat, forest-dependent species, range-restricted species,
43 threat status, threatened species
44
45
46 Introduction
47 Bird species have been experiencing rapid population declines worldwide (Inger et al. 2015;
48 Lindenmayer et al. 2018; Rosenberg et al. 2019), with habitat loss being one of the principal
49 drivers (Owens & Bennett 2000; Ford et al. 2009; Calvert et al. 2013). These population
50 declines and the local extirpation of species have been linked to a deterioration in the
51 function of ecosystems and the provision of ecosystem services, such as pollination and
52 insect control (Sekercioglu 2006; Gaston & Fuller 2008; Winfree et al. 2015). However, the
53 impact of habitat loss for entire bird assemblages has been little studied in tropical
54 ecosystems (Sekercioglu 2012), despite the fact that such ecosystems harbor most of the
55 planet’s terrestrial biodiversity (Gibson et al. 2011). Moreover, there is clear evidence that
56 species-rich assemblages such as those that characterise tropical forests play a critical role in
57 ecosystem function and service provision (Sekercioglu 2012; Gaston et al. 2018).
58 In the last two decades more than 2.3 million square kilometres of tropical forest have been
59 lost (Hansen et al. 2013; World Resources Institute 2018) and the destruction of these
60 habitats threatens the survival of forest specialist species (Donald et al. 2018; Symes et al.
61 2018; Watling et al. 2020). As tropical forests continue to decline in extent (Malhi et al.
62 2014), habitat for a huge number of species is being lost (Ceballos et al. 2017; Lovejoy
63 2017). However, we lack a clear picture of what this loss means for both whole assemblages
64 of species, and particular subsets of assemblages that are of conservation interest (e.g.
65 endemic species, functional groups; Simmonds et al. 2019).
66 Here, we assess the implications of forest loss for bird assemblages in Colombia, the country
67 with more bird species than any other (Ayerbe-Quiñones 2018), and where forest loss is
68 particularly acute (Negret et al. 2019). We estimate the impact of past and projected
69 deforestation on the extent of potential habitat for 550 forest-dependent bird species.
70 Historical, recent, and projected future habitat loss for forest-dependent species was
71 calculated across Colombia, as well as for each biotic region, for species-rich taxonomic
72 groups of the broader assemblage (tanagers, ovenbirds, flycatchers and antbirds) and
73 separately for 69 regionally endemic forest-dependent species (defined as having ≥80% of
74 their global distribution in Colombia). In this way the impact of habitat loss was assessed for
75 all the forest-dependent species in the assemblage.
76
77 Methods
78 Study area
79 Colombia, in north western South America, is a tropical country of 1,142,000 km² with a
80 wide topographic range. As a result, the country has extraordinarily high vertebrate diversity
81 including >1900 species of birds (McMullan et al. 2010; Ayerbe-Quiñones 2018), 700
82 species of amphibians (Galeano et al. 2006) and 400 species of mammals (Ramirez-Chaves &
83 Suárez-Castro 2014). Natural forest covered more than 55% of its continental area in 2018
84 (World Resources Institute 2018).
85
86 Distribution ranges for forest-dependent species
87 We obtained distribution and ecological data for all native birds occurring in Colombia from
88 BirdLife International using the latest available range maps (BirdLife International &
89 Handbook of the Birds of the World 2018). These distribution maps are generated by experts
90 based on their knowledge and the available data for each species (BirdLife International &
91 Handbook of the Birds of the World 2018; IUCN Red List Technical Working Group 2019).
92 We then filtered our list to include only forest-dependent bird species following the Donald et
93 al. (2018) definition of forest-dependent species: those whose listed habitat as defined by the
94 IUCN habitat classification scheme (https://www.iucnredlist.org/resources/habitat-
95 classification-scheme) included only the level 1 classification “Forest & Woodland”. After
96 filtering out non-forest and multi-habitat species, 550 forest-dependent species remained for
97 analysis. We adhered to the BirdLife taxonomic treatment.
98
99 Forest cover data
100 We used maps of forest cover in Colombia for four points in time (historical, 2000, 2015 and
101 2040) to determine the extent of suitable habitat inside each species’ range in each time
102 period. For the distribution of forest cover in 2000 and 2015 we used the 1 km² resolution
103 forest cover maps generated by Negret et al. (2019). For the historical distribution of forest
104 cover we used the map of historical cover of forest ecosystems in Colombia created by Etter
105 et al. (2017). This map used Landsat images for the country from 1972 – 1977, a combination
106 of different ecosystem maps (Etter 1998; Etter et al. 2006b) and information on the
107 distribution of areas of historical change where deforestation for agricultural land uses have
108 occurred, to define the potential distribution of the extent of forest cover if human
109 intervention and transformation had not occurred (Etter et al. 2006b, 2017). The resolution of
110 this forest cover map was 250 m² and so we generated a 1 km² grid covering Colombia to
111 match the resolution of the forest cover map generated by Negret et al. (2019), and calculated
112 the proportion of forest cover for each grid cell. We then defined grid cells with >30% forest
113 cover as forest and those with <30% as non-forest based on the threshold used by the
114 Colombian Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies – IDEAM
115 (Galindo et al. 2014; Negret et al. 2019). In forest landscapes that retain less than 30% forest
116 cover, bird species richness is markedly lower than those with greater cover (Ochoa-Quintero
117 et al. 2015). Any pixel that was classified as non-forest using the historical forest cover layer
118 was treated as no forest for all subsequent time slices.
119
120 Forest cover change model
121 We simulated the spatial distribution of deforestation across Colombia in 2040, using a
122 cellular automata model developed in Dinamica EGO with parameters that allocate
123 deforestation on the basis of its empirical association with a set of predictor variables
124 (Soares-Filho et al. 2002, 2013) including; proximity to roads, rivers, mining concessions, oil
125 exploitation wells, distance to previous deforested areas, armed conflict intensity, distance to
126 coca plantations, the presence of protected areas, slope and elevation (Negret et al. 2019). To
127 do this, we assessed the association of the predictor variables with deforestation from 2000 to
128 2015 with the Bayesian weights of evidence method (Bonham-Carter 1994; Soares-Filho et
129 al. 2013). Then we used the weights of evidence coefficients from the spatial determinants of
130 forest change as inputs in a multi-stage process to model the spatial distribution of
131 deforestation pressure in the country (Soares-Filho et al. 2002, 2013; Negret et al. 2019). The
132 model used the weights of evidence coefficients, the 2015 forest cover map and the spatial
133 distribution of the biophysical and anthropogenic variables to produce a spatial map of
134 deforestation pressure. We then used an average annual deforestation rate calculated from the
135 2000 and 2015 forest cover maps and the deforestation pressure map to generate a forest
136 cover projection for 2040 using Dinamica EGO software (Teixeira et al. 2009; Molin et al.
137 2017). Although the published model included the effect of armed conflict in the context
138 previous to the signing of the peace deal with FARC, there has not been a cessation of
139 conflict in the country (Parkins 2019), so the same model was used.
140
141 Habitat loss across bird ranges
142 To estimate change in the extent of suitable habitat for each forest-dependent species at each
143 of the four points in time (Historical, 2000, 2015 and 2040), we assumed all forest inside
144 each species’ range was potential habitat. We quantified the total area of habitat for each
145 species in each time period, the loss through time, and the proportion of the estimated habitat
146 extent that the loss represented.
147
148 Deforestation impact on species assemblages
149 We estimated the impact of deforestation up to 2015 for all the forest-dependent species in
150 Colombia and for each biotic region. We also estimated the impact of deforestation for
151 regionally-endemic species (defined as having ≥80% of their range in Colombia) and for the
152 four most species-rich families (tanagers, ovenbirds, flycatchers and antbirds) to explore how
153 forest loss has variously affected these bird groups. Finally, we assessed the projected impact
154 of deforestation by 2040, for each biotic region, for the four species-rich taxonomic groups
155 and for all regionally-endemic species. We used the Loss Index (LI) to describe potential
156 natural habitat loss for the forest-dependent bird assemblages of Colombia (Simmonds et al.
157 2019). The LI is a metric where an LI of x, indicates that x% of species in an assemblage
158 have each lost at least x% of their potential natural habitat (Simmonds et al. 2019).
159
160 Threat assessment for regionally-endemic species
161 We performed a threat assessment for the regionally-endemic species (defined as having
162 ≥80% of their range in Colombia) - for these species long-term survival is heavily dependent
163 on their persistence in Colombia. We used habitat loss as a proxy for population decline
164 assuming that the rate of habitat loss was directly proportional to the rate of population
165 decline, such that a loss of 1% suitable habitat was equivalent to a 1% population decline
166 (Symes et al. 2018). We then determined the proportional population decline until 2015
167 (historical loss), the decline to 2040 (projected loss), and the decline between 2000 and 2015
168 (recent loss) for each species. Using these data, we identified the species that had lost more
169 than 20, 30, 50 and 80 percent of their population in the different timeframes (Historic,
170 projected and recent loss) and contrasted this loss with the threat classification thresholds of
171 population reduction from the IUCN Red List criterion A4 (IUCN Standards and Petitions
172 Committee 2019); Critically Endangered (>80% reduction), Endangered (>50% reduction),
173 Vulnerable (>30% reduction) and Near Threatened (>20% reduction). We are aware that
174 these thresholds refer to change over 10 years or 3 generations for classification purposes,
175 and use them here simply as a point of reference.
176 We also identified the species with area of occupancy of less than 3000, 2000, 500 and 10
177 km² in 2015 and in 2040 and contrasted this with the threat classification thresholds for extent
178 of area of occupancy from the IUCN Red List criterion B2 (IUCN Standards and Petitions
179 Committee 2019); Critically Endangered (<10 km²), Endangered (<500% km²), Vulnerable
180 (<2000% km²) and Near Threatened (<3000% km²). We defined the area of occupancy as the
181 area inside each species’ range with forest habitat.
182
183 Results
184 National level
185 The vast majority of forest-dependent birds (n=536; 96.5%) in Colombia had lost suitable
186 habitat by 2015 in comparison with their historical habitat extent (Fig. 1 & Supplementary
187 Fig. 1). The average loss of habitat was 24% (± 20 SD) by 2000, 27% (± 20.6 SD) by 2015,
188 and we projected an average of 38% (± 26 SD) loss of habitat by 2040. Only 17% (n=35) of
189 the species that are projected to lose at least half their habitat in Colombia by 2040 (n=208)
190 are currently classified as threatened by the IUCN.
191
192 Deforestation impact on assemblages
193 The impact of deforestation on forest-dependent bird assemblages in Colombia was dramatic.
194 The Loss Index for the country was 35 (35% of Colombia’s forest-dependent species had lost
195 at least 35% of their suitable habitat by 2015) (see Supplementary Table 1 and 2 for full
196 details). Using the land use change model, the LI was projected to increase to 43 by 2040.
197 Moreover, 18% of the species (n=99) had lost more than half of their historical habitat in the
198 country by 2015 and 38% are projected to lose 50% or more of their habitat by 2040 (Fig. 2).
199 There were large differences in 2015 LI values for regions that differed in land-use intensity
200 and biogeographic characteristics (Fig. 3a). For example, in the Caribe region, the LI was 82.
201 This high LI value showed that forest loss had far-reaching effects on the majority of this
202 region’s forest avifauna, despite the fact that only 15 species occurring in the region are listed
203 as threatened. The LI dropped to 28 and 14 for the Amazon and Pacific regions, respectively,
204 where forest loss has not been as extensive (Fig. 3a). However, in the species rich Amazon
205 foothills, each km² of forest loss has the potential to affect up to 230 forest-dependent species
206 (Fig. 3a-b).
207 The Andes region, which had the most forest-dependent species (491 species), had the
208 greatest projected increase in its LI, from 40 in 2015 to 54 in 2040 (Fig 3a). The region with
209 the highest LI by 2040 was Caribe with 90. The Amazon and the Pacific regions maintained
210 relatively low LI, 33 and 26 respectively, However the LI for the Pacific region almost
211 doubled from the value in 2015 (LI = 14).

212 For regionally-endemic species, the LI was 43 in 2015 and is projected to be 53 by 2040 (Fig.
213 4a) (see Supplementary Table 1 for full details). This implies that more than half of
214 Colombia’s regionally-endemic species are projected to lose at least half of their habitat by
215 2040. The areas where deforestation is projected to affect more regionally-endemic species is
216 the north-east of the Antioquia department where deforestation has already affected the
217 habitat of more than 15 regionally-endemic species (Fig. 4b-c).
218 We also explored the LI for four of the largest species groups of Colombia’s forest-dependent
219 bird assemblages. Tanagers, which based on our assessment are the most species rich group
220 of forest-dependent species (61 species), had a LI of 43 in 2015, which increased to 51 when
221 projected forest loss by 2040 was included (Supplementary Fig. 2a). Ovenbirds (n=47) had a
222 LI of 38 in 2015 with a projected increase to 42 by 2040 (Supplementary Fig. 2b); flycatchers
223 (n=44) had a LI of 36 in 2015 projected to increase to 44 by 2040 (Supplementary Fig. 2c);
224 and antbirds (n=53) had a LI of 27 in 2015 projected to increase to 32 by 2040
225 (Supplementary Fig. 2d).
226
227 Deforestation impact on individual species
228 Deforestation has been and is projected to have major impacts on several threatened and non-
229 threatened species in Colombia (Fig. 1 & 2) with 40% (n=208) of all forest-dependent species
230 projected to lose at least half of their habitat by 2040, and 15% (n=79) projected to lose 70%
231 or more of their habitat by 2040. The maximum proportional loss of habitat to 2015 and to
232 2040 among all the forest-dependent species was for the Giant Conebill (Conirostrum
233 binghami) with 99%. This species was also the one with the maximum proportional loss
234 between 2000 and 2015 (recent loss) with 63% of the remaining habitat to 2000 lost in this
235 period. The maximum projected proportional loss between 2015 and 2040 was for the
236 Western Hemispingus (Sphenopsis ochracea) with 93% of its remaining habitat in 2015
237 projected to be lost in the period to 2040 (see Supplementary Table 2 for full details).
238 The maximum proportional loss of historical habitat for regional endemics to 2015 and to
239 2040 was for the Antioquia Wren (Thryophilus sernai), with 87% and 94% respectively. The
240 maximum proportional loss between 2000 and 2015 (recent loss) was for the Tolima Dove
241 (Leptotila conoveri), with 31% of the remaining habitat in 2000 lost in this period, and the
242 maximum proportional projected loss between 2015 and 2040 was for the Chestnut-capped
243 Piha (Lipaugus weberi) with 69% of the remaining habitat in 2015 projected to be lost in this
244 period (Fig. 5; see Supplementary Table 1 for full details).
245
246 Threat assessment for regionally-endemic species
247 Our threat assessment for the 69 regionally-endemic species showed that 49 species lost 20%
248 or more of their historical habitat by 2015, 40 species lost 30% or more, 18 species lost 50%
249 or more and one species lost more than 80%. When the projected loss until 2040 is included,
250 57 species are projected to lose 20% or more of their historical habitat by 2015, 54 species
251 are projected to lose 30% or more, 39 species are projected to lose 50% or more and 11
252 species are projected to lose more than 80% (Fig. 5). Of the 18 species that had lost 50% or
253 more of their historical habitat by 2015, six are not currently classified as threatened by the
254 IUCN, and of the 39 species that are projected to lose 50% or more of their historical habitat
255 by 2040, 12 are not currently classified as threatened by the IUCN (see Supplementary Table
256 3 for full details).
257 When considering recent loss only (2000 – 2015; i.e. not loss compared to historical
258 coverage) our results show that only two species lost more than 20% of their habitat.
259 However, when the projected loss between 2015 and 2040 is included in this assessment
260 (2000 – 2040) 49 species are projected to lose 20% or more of their historical habitat by
261 2040, 37 species are projected to lose 30% or more and 15 species are projected to lose more
262 than 50% (Supplementary Fig. 3). Of the 15 species that are projected to lose, by 2040, 50%
263 or more of their remaining habitat in 2000, three are not currently classified as threatened by
264 the IUCN (see Supplementary Table 3 for full details).
265 Twenty-four species had less than 3000 km² of area of occupancy by 2015, 17 species had
266 less than 2000 km² and seven had less than 500 km². When this assessment is done based on
267 the projected extent of area of occupancy by 2040, 29 species had less than 3000 km² of area
268 of occupancy by 2040, 24 species had less than 2000 km², 10 had less than 500 km² and 1
269 had less than 10 km² (see Supplementary Table 3 for full details). Of the 24 species that are
270 projected to occupy less than 2000 km² by 2040, four are not currently classified as
271 threatened by the IUCN (see Supplementary Table 3 for full details).
272
273 Discussion
274 Our study highlights the importance of assessing the impact of deforestation on whole species
275 assemblages. We report a Loss Index (LI) of 35 for Colombia in 2015: 35% of the species
276 analysed had lost 35% or more of their historical habitat. If recent deforestation trends
277 continue, we estimate that LI will increase to 43 by 2040. Despite this ongoing attrition of
278 habitat, only 17% (n=35) of the species that are projected to lose 50% or more of their habitat
279 in Colombia by 2040 (n=208) are currently classified as threatened by the IUCN (2019b),
280 suggesting that there are many species that are facing an imminent extinction threat from
281 habitat loss even though they are not formally listed as threatened.
282
283 Depletion of Colombia’s forest bird habitat

284 Deforestation has impacted almost all the forest-dependent bird species in the country
285 (n=536; 96.5%) but most still retain more than half of their historical habitat (n=451, 82%).
286 However, if deforestation trajectories continue, 40% (n=208) of the forest-dependent species
287 would lose half or more of their suitable habitat in the country by 2040 (Fig. 2). This is
288 particularly concerning for currently non-threatened species which comprise 83% of the
289 assemblage we explored, and which normally are not the focus of conservation initiatives.
290 When assessing only regionally-endemic species, our results show a more dramatic change
291 than the one observed for the entire forest-dependent bird assemblage. Seventy-four percent
292 (n=51) of the species retained at least half of their historical habitat in 2015, but if
293 deforestation trajectories continue, 57% (n=39) of the species would lose half or more of their
294 historical habitat by 2040 (Fig. 4a).
295 Our results also showed that forest-dependent tanagers were the bird family with the greatest
296 proportional loss of suitable habitat in the country to 2015 and projected to 2040. Tanagers
297 are particularly diverse in the Andes, which is one of the most heavily historically altered
298 regions of Colombia (Etter & van Wyngaarden 2000; Etter et al. 2006a). More knowledge of
299 the threats imposed by deforestation to tanager habitat in the Andes is needed in order to
300 avoid their extinction.
301
302 Regional variation in impact of deforestation on assemblages
303 At a regional scale our results show that the Caribe region had the highest Loss Index value
304 (LI = 81) and had a mean historical habitat loss of 88% by 2015. This reflects high levels of
305 forest loss that is affecting most of the species in the assemblages in this region. Past studies
306 have also identified the Caribe as a priority region due to its high land conversion and low
307 protection levels (Forero-Medina & Joppa 2010; Negret et al. 2020), highlighting the
308 importance of conservation aimed at reducing forest loss in this region. Colombia’s relatively
309 well-preserved Choco and Amazon regions had low LI values and the mean loss of historical
310 habitat was below 20% for both. These regions are characterized by high species richness
311 with Choco representing a hotspot for endemic birds (Mittermeier et al. 2004). The
312 maintenance of intactness in these regions is critical as diverse and intact species assemblages
313 underpin ecosystem functions such as seed dispersal, pollination, pest control and carbon
314 sequestration (Cardinale et al. 2012; Watson et al. 2018; Maxwell et al. 2019). The Andes
315 region, which was the most bird species rich, was also the region with a more drastic
316 projected change in the LI (from 40 to 54) and in mean habitat loss (35 to 54) when compared
317 to the other regions (Fig. 3a). Actions focused on preventing the loss of habitat for
318 endangered and range restricted species in this region are needed.
319 The west section of the Amazon foothills includes areas of very high species richness
320 (overlapping ranges of >200 forest-dependent birds in places) (Fig. 3). This region has
321 undergone a rapid increase in deforestation since the peace deal (Clerici et al. 2018; Murillo
322 Sandoval et al. 2020), so investment in management of protected areas and other effective
323 area-based conservation measures is a priority to avoid the loss of these rich bird
324 assemblages. Our results also showed that the central and eastern Andes are areas where
325 deforestation has substantially affected forest-dependent tanager species, while forest-
326 dependent antbirds were especially affected in the Amazon-Andes foothills in Putumayo.
327 Tanagers and antbirds provide important ecosystem services such as seed dispersal,
328 pollination and insect population regulation since their diet is mostly fruits and insects (Hilty
329 & Brown 1986; McMullan et al. 2010), making their effective conservation crucial for
330 ecosystem functioning and ecosystem service provision. Additionally, the north-east of the
331 Antioquia department is an area where projected deforestation will affect bird assemblages
332 that have a particularly high concentration of endemic species (Fig. 4). This region has been
333 considerably affected by armed conflict, but there are several conservation initiatives and
334 research expeditions in this area after the peace deal (United Nations 2018). These
335 conservation initiatives would help protect the endemic bird species in this region.
336
337 Implications for species threat status
338 Half of the regionally-endemic species are currently not classified as threatened based on the
339 IUCN threatened species status criteria (see Supplementary Table 1 for full details) but our
340 analysis suggests that many of those species are facing significant habitat loss that could lead
341 to their extinction (Fig 5, Supplementary Fig 3). For example the Colombian Wren
342 (Pheugopedius columbianus) and the Stiles' Tapaculo (Scytalopus stilesi), which are currently
343 classified as Least Concern (LC), have already lost more than 60% of their habitat in
344 Colombia and are projected to lose more than 85% by 2040 (Fig 4). Targeted research for
345 these and other species with similar characteristics is needed in order to identify the factors
346 that are generating the reduction of their habitat and to determine if a revision of their Red
347 List classification is warranted. In contrast, loss of suitable habitat has been small for some
348 threatened and near threatened species in Colombia. This in part is associated to the fact that
349 some of these species inhabit less accessible areas (e.g., Wattled Curassow [Crax globulosa]
350 and Banded Ground-cuckoo [Neomorphus radiolosus]) or that have been the target of
351 successful conservation actions (e.g., Urrao Antpitta [Grallaria fenwickorum] and Gorgeted
352 Puffleg [Eriocnemis isabellae]) (Carantón-Ayala & Certuche-Cubillos 2010; ProAves 2019).
353 Moreover, our threat assessment for regionally-endemic species showed that accounting for
354 projected habitat loss can provide useful information of the species that need proactive
355 conservation interventions as projected loss would affect their habitat, population numbers
356 and threat status.

357
358 Limitations of our analysis
359 While our method is a rapid way to assess and describe the impacts of deforestation to the
360 habitat of forest-dependent species, some limitations have to be noted. In predicting extent of
361 and change in potentially suitable habitat, the underlying maps, while the most
362 comprehensive and detailed up to date, likely contain commission and omission errors which
363 can lead to inaccurate forest change estimates (Rondinini et al. 2011; Ficetola et al. 2014;
364 Tracewski et al. 2016; Palacios et al. 2020). For some species in heavily historically altered
365 regions, like the Caribe (Etter & van Wyngaarden 2000; Etter et al. 2006a), mapped ranges
366 might be more consistent with the species’ current area of occupancy, reflecting the remnants
367 of the species pre-human range, and thus not account for range contractions which may have
368 occurred and been caused by historical habitat loss (e.g, Blue-billed Curassow [Crax
369 alberti]). Despite this, species in the tropics tend to have conservative niches, making
370 geographical and climatic barriers more effective (Janzen 1967; Brown 2014). This in turn
371 makes species distribution change less common. Additionally, species for which habitat
372 reduction represents the main extinction risk are normally those that are restricted to smaller
373 areas and have more specialized niches (Harris & Pimm 2008; Birand et al. 2012) so their
374 historical distributions can be better inferred. Even though this should be the case for the
375 majority of species, we are aware that there are information gaps in relation to the bird
376 communities present in some regions of the country, and that there are constant reports of
377 records beyond the known range and altitudinal limits for several species (Negret & Laverde-
378 R. 2014; Gomez-Bernal et al. 2015; Negret et al. 2015). Based on this we decided not to
379 generate further altitudinal range refinements for the species analysed, making our estimates
380 of the impact of deforestation to the habitat and population size of forest-dependent species
381 conservative.
382 There is also a lack of understanding of habitat preferences for some species (e.g., Magdalena
383 Tapaculo [Scytalopus rodriguezi]), especially species with highly specialised habitat
384 requirements or that exist at very low densities within suitable habitat. For example, based on
385 our results the Banded Ground-cuckoo (Neomorphus radiolosus), which is categorized as
386 Endangered (EN), has retained more than half of its habitat. However, the extent of suitable
387 habitat for the species might be lower than our estimates suggest as it is a species present in
388 low densities, and for which ecological characteristics are poorly understood (Hilty & Brown
389 1986; McMullan et al. 2010; Ayerbe-Quiñones 2018). This is because our broad
390 classification of potential ‘habitat’ – forest – does not allow us to account for species-specific
391 specialisation (although this is accounted for broadly by restricting habitat amount
392 calculations to within the current range of where species occur). Consequently, while our
393 results represent an improvement on existing knowledge in the majority of cases, each
394 assessment must be judged carefully and in combination with on the ground information if
395 possible. Finally, our results should be used in context with each species’ particular
396 circumstances, considering other threats such as the impacts of selective logging (Isaac &
397 Cowlishaw 2004; Mayor et al. 2015), hunting (Isaac & Cowlishaw 2004; Benítez-López et al.
398 2017), and wildlife trade (Symes et al. 2018) which will likely cause substantial reductions in
399 some species, as would occur in any normal IUCN assessment process.
400
401 Conclusion
402 Our results show the importance of holistic assessments of the impact of deforestation on
403 whole species assemblages. We show the level of historical and recent reduction in habitat
404 for non-threatened forest-dependent species in Colombia is comparable to that of threatened
405 species and we argue that monitoring of both threatened and non-threatened species must be
406 done in tandem. Moreover, many of the non-threatened species that have already lost half or
407 more of their potential habitat in Colombia are considered ‘common’ (e.g., Basileuterus
408 tristriatus[Three-striped Warbler]) or ‘abundant’ (e.g., Grey-breasted Wood-wren
409 [Henicorhina leucophrys]) (Hilty & Brown 1986; McMullan et al. 2010). Common and
410 abundant species represent the bulk of individuals in forest assemblages and their ecological
411 roles are fundamental for ecosystem functioning (Sekercioglu 2006; Gaston & Fuller 2008)
412 and the provision of ecosystem services (Sekercioglu 2012; Gaston et al. 2018). Their
413 extirpation can reduce income for local communities in ecotourism (Maldonado et al. 2018),
414 reduce pest control in nearby agroforest and agricultural landscapes (Sekercioglu 2012) and
415 reduce pollination and seed dispersal of fruiting and timber trees in adjacent agricultural
416 landscapes (Gaston & Fuller 2008).
417 While identifying and halting the underlying causes of deforestation is fundamental to avoid
418 the extinction of forest-dependent species, improving the protection for species under
419 imminent risk is necessary in the short term to avoid their extinction. Understanding future
420 threats to species based on projected impacts of deforestation is therefore an important tool
421 which helps to generate better conservation plans and actions to protect focal species of
422 otherwise unseen risk. We believe the methodological framework applied in this study can
423 provide a rapid way to generate an initial evaluation of the state of entire species assemblages
424 in other biodiverse countries and regions where field data is not complete or available.
425
426
427
428
429
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616
617 Acknowledgements
618 We are grateful to R.D. Palacios, J.R. Allan and K.R. Jones, for providing constructive
619 feedback and discussion around elements of this study. Funding: This work was supported
620 by the Colombian Administrative Department of Science, Technology and Innovation
621 (Colciencias).
622
623 Authors’ contributions
624 P.J.N. conceived and designed the study with J.S.S., M.M. and J.E.M.W suggestions. P.J.N.
625 implemented the analysis. All the authors contributed to subsequent drafts and gave final
626 approval for publication.
627
628 Data Availability
629 Supplementary Table 1,2 & 3 will be made available upon request, previous to its deposition
630 in an open-access repository with the peer-reviewed version of this study. Requests should be
631 sent to the corresponding author.
632
633 Figures
634
635 Figure 1. (a) Loss of extent of potential habitat for forest-dependent Colombian birds. Change in
636 suitable habitat for each of the 550 species, until 2015 and the projected loss by 2040, split by each
637 species’ current IUCN Red-list status: critically endangered (CR), endangered (EN), vulnerable (VU),
638 near threatened (NT), and least concern (LC). The circles represent the historical extent of suitable
639 habitat within the range of each species, the triangles the extent in 2015 and the asterisks the projected
640 extent for 2040; the lines are drawn between the circle and triangle for the same species to highlight
641 the species-specific change, the same for the dashed lines between the circles and asterisks. (b) The
642 same figure but only showing species with historical extent of suitable habitat smaller than 5000 km².
643 In this graph the horizontal black dotted lines represent the thresholds for classification as vulnerable
644 (VU) (2000 km²), endangered (EN) (500 km²) and critically endangered (CR) (10 km²) based on the
645 IUCN criterion B2.
646
647
648 (a)
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700 Figure 2. (a) Histogram of the number of forest-dependent birds (n=550 species) with different proportions of historical habitat loss until 2015 and (b) the
701 projected for 2040 in Colombia. Continues lines represent a smoothed count estimate, vertical dashed lines show the mean habitat loss.
702
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704 (a) (b)
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722 Figure 3. (a) Habitat loss index (LI) and histogram of the number of forest-dependent birds against percentage of historical habitat loss until 2015 (black) and
723
the projected for 2040 (orange) for Colombia and its different biotic regions. Vertical dashed lines in the histograms show the mean habitat loss. In the centre
724 a map of the number of forest-dependent birds potentially affected by habitat loss in different regions of Colombia (dark grey; remnant forest habitat, light
725 grey; non forest habitat; colour key; number of species that potentially lost natural habitat) to 2015 (b) and from 2015 to 2040. Caribe (n=170 species); Andes
726 (n=491 species); Orinoquía (n=213 species); Amazonas (n=301 species); Pacific (n=285 species).
727
728 (a) (c)
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738 Figure 4. (a) Histogram of the number of regionally-endemic forest-dependent birds (n=69) against
739 the percentage of historical habitat loss until 2105 and the projected for 2040 in Colombia. The
740 vertical black dashed lines show the mean habitat loss. Continuous lines represent a smoothed count
741 estimate. (b) Habitat loss index (LI) and map of the number of regionally-endemic forest-dependent
742 birds potentially affected by habitat loss in different regions of Colombia (dark grey; remnant forest
743 habitat, light grey; non-forest habitat; colour key; number of species that potentially lost natural
744 habitat) for 2015 and (c) 2040.
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774 Figure 5. Population declines from habitat loss. The blue bar is the habitat loss until 2000, the orange
775 bar the habitat loss until 2015 and the red bar the projected habitat loss by 2040. This graph only
776 shows the 69 regionally-endemic forest-dependent species. Vertical lines represent the thresholds for
777 classification as near threatened (NT) (20%), vulnerable (VU) (30%), endangered (EN) (50%), and
778 critically endangered (CR) (80%) based on the IUCN criterion A4. In parenthesis IUCN category in
779 2019.
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800 Supplementary material:
801 Supplementary Table 1, 2 & 3 are in an excel file

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833 Supplementary Figure 1. (a) Loss of extent of suitable habitat in Colombia for regionally-endemic
834 forest-dependent birds. Change in suitable habitat for each of the 69 species until 2040, split by their
835 current IUCN Red-list status: critically endangered (CR), endangered (EN), vulnerable (VU), near
836 threatened (NT), and least concern (LC). The circles represent the historical extent of suitable habitat
837 within the range of each species, the triangles the extent in 2015 and the asterisks the projected extent
838 for 2040; the lines are drawn between the circle and triangle for the same species to highlight the
839 species-specific change, the same for the dashed lines between the circles and asterisks.
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868 Supplementary Figure 2. Habitat loss index values (LI), map of the locations of potential lost natural
869 habitat (shaded pixels), and histogram of the number of forest-dependent species against percentage
870 of historical habitat loss until 2105 (black) and the projected for 2040 (orange) in Colombia for 4
871 major bird groups. Dashed lines show the mean habitat loss by 2015 and the projected by 2040 (a)
872 Tanagers (Thraupidae, n = 61 species), (b) Antbirds (Thamnophilidae, n = 53 species), (c) Ovenbirds
873 (Furnariidae, n = 47 species) and (d) Flycatchers (Tyrannidae, n = 43 species). In the maps, dark grey
874 depicts remanent forest habitat, light grey non forest habitat and the colour key, the number of species
875 that potentially lost natural habitat.
876
877 (a)
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937 Supplementary Figure 3. Population declines from habitat loss. The blue bar is the habitat loss from
938 2000 to 2015, and the red bar the projected habitat loss by 2040. This graph only shows the 69
939 regionally-endemic forest-dependent species. Vertical lines represent the thresholds for classification
940 as near threatened (NT) (20%), vulnerable (VU) (30%), endangered (EN) (50%), and critically
941 endangered (CR) (80%) based on the IUCN criterion A4. In parenthesis IUCN category in 2019.
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Deforestation and Bird Habitat Loss in Colombia

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Deforestation and Bird Habitat Loss in Colombia

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bioRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.30.125849. this version posted May 31, 2020.

The copyright holder for this preprint (which

1 Deforestation and bird habitat loss in Colombia

3 James E.M. Watson¹,²,4, Jeremy S. Simmonds¹,²

8 ³The Nature Conservancy, South Brisbane, Queensland 4101, Australia

10 Bronx, NY 10460-1068, USA

42 Keywords: Extent of suitable habitat, forest-dependent species, range-restricted species,

43 threat status, threatened species

65 endemic species, functional groups; Simmonds et al. 2019).

73 separately for 69 regionally endemic forest-dependent species (defined as having ≥80% of

75 all the forest-dependent species in the assemblage.

84 (World Resources Institute 2018).

86 Distribution ranges for forest-dependent species

94 IUCN habitat classification scheme (https://www.iucnredlist.org/resources/habitat-

97 analysis. We adhered to the BirdLife taxonomic treatment.

99 Forest cover data

114 Colombian Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies – IDEAM

118 was treated as no forest for all subsequent time slices.

120 Forest cover change model

141 Habitat loss across bird ranges

146 extent that the loss represented.

148 Deforestation impact on species assemblages

157 2019). The LI is a metric where an LI of x, indicates that x% of species in an assemblage

160 Threat assessment for regionally-endemic species

175 and use them here simply as a point of reference.

181 area inside each species’ range with forest habitat.

184 National level

190 are currently classified as threatened by the IUCN.

192 Deforestation impact on assemblages

206 (Fig. 3a-b).

211 doubled from the value in 2015 (LI = 14).

217 habitat of more than 15 regionally-endemic species (Fig. 4b-c).

224 and antbirds (n=53) had a LI of 27 in 2015 projected to increase to 32 by 2040

225 (Supplementary Fig. 2d).

227 Deforestation impact on individual species

244 period (Fig. 5; see Supplementary Table 1 for full details).

246 Threat assessment for regionally-endemic species

256 3 for full details).

264 the IUCN (see Supplementary Table 3 for full details).

283 Depletion of Colombia’s forest bird habitat

294 historical habitat by 2040 (Fig. 4a).

300 avoid their extinction.

302 Regional variation in impact of deforestation on assemblages

337 Implications for species threat status

356 and threat status.

358 Limitations of our analysis

404 for non-threatened forest-dependent species in Colombia is comparable to that of threatened

408 tristriatus[Three-striped Warbler]) or ‘abundant’ (e.g., Grey-breasted Wood-wren

416 landscapes (Gaston & Fuller 2008).

470 Etter A, McAlpine C, Wilson K, Phinn S, Possingham H. 2006b. Regional patterns of

623 Authors’ contributions

628 Data Availability

800 Supplementary material:

801 Supplementary Table 1, 2 & 3 are in an excel file

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