FlexSim COVID-19 Simulation Model

Model Inputs Documentation

These are the inputs that you can change when you run scenarios of the model. We used the
current CDC numbers for the default values (where applicable). To run the model, press the
button, then press , then press the button to advance the simulation
1 day.

Initial Infected
The number used at the start of the simulation that represent the number of people who have
the virus but don’t know it. They are the ones who start the spread of the virus.
Weekly Infection Rate
This rate comes from the CDC and is the number of people each person infects while
contagious. The current number from the CDC is 2.5 to 3.5. We assume that people are infected
for 2 weeks before they are diagnosed, so the weekly rate we use for the model is 3.5/2=1.75.
Once diagnosed the patient does not spread the virus anymore.
Days to Recover after Diagnosis
This is the number of days it takes a person to recover from the sickness once they are
diagnosed.
Days Undiagnosed are Infectious
This input is for the 70% of people who get the virus but do not have severe symptoms and do
not get diagnosed. By default this is set to 21 days, so this group will spread the virus to
3*1.75=5.25 people.
% of Patients Diagnosed
This is the % of infected people that get diagnosed (tested positive) with the COVID-19 virus.
Diagnosed Patient Death Rate %
The diagnosed patient death rate % is the percentage of patients that die after testing positive
for the COVID-19 virus. This is not the overall death rate for everyone infected.
Max Death Rate %
The max death rate % is the percentage of diagnosed patients that die when no hospital beds
are available. The default is 4% since we assume more people will die without getting into the
hospital.
Total Population
This is the population sample size you want to run for your scenario. We use 3 million as the
default (roughly the population of the state of Utah, where FlexSim is based).
Quarantine Start (Infected Number)
This is the number of diagnosed patients needed to trigger the government to start quarantine
measures, such as closing schools, restaurants, clubs, etc.
Quarantine Reduction %
This value corresponds to the effectiveness of the policies set in place to control the virus. This
value is a pure estimate, and it would increase as stricter policies are implemented. For
example, just closing schools may only slow the virus’ spready by 40%, but a full shutdown that
sees everyone stay home—with no one allowed out of their home—may slow the virus 95%.

Healthcare System Inputs

These inputs are used to help healthcare providers understand when their facilities will be
overrun by diagnosed sick people who need to be admitted to the hospital.
Total Hospital Beds
This is the total number of hospital beds available for the Total Population.
Available Beds (Calculated)
This is a calculated number of available beds using the % Beds Available for Sick Patients.
% Beds Available for Sick Patients
At any given time, a hospital utilizes many of its beds and only has a certain percentage
available for incoming patients. The default value allows for 35% of the total beds in a hospital
for COVID-19 diagnosed patients.
% of Diagnosed that Need Hospital Beds
The % of Diagnosed that Need Hospital Beds is a number provided by the CDC. This number is
currently at 15% of those that are Diagnosed with the COVID-19 virus.