Cycling For Last Mile Connectivity - by Arun Sehrawat

A Way to provide Bicycle to Every
household Plus saving the Government
Exchequer Thousands of crore Rupees
Every Year
“THE LAST MILE CONNECTIVITY”
MOTIVATED BY THE CALL OF OUR HON’BLE PRIME MINISTER
NARENDER MODI JI
FOR THE
WEALTH CREATION
AND
FIT INDIA CAMPAIGN
ARUN SEHRAWAT
Vill. BAKKARWALA, DELHI
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arun.sehrawat@yahoo.co.in
Contents
Page
Introduction 2
Summary 3
Case Study 8
Premise/Problem 8
Arguments And CounterArguments 12
Suggestions/Solutions 17
Justification For ₹ 1000 Subsidy 19
Increase In Total Household Savings 20
Assumed Cost Of The Scheme 21
How To Raise Initial Fund For The Scheme 23
Benefits Of The Scheme 24
How To Promote The Use Of Bicycle 31
Feasibility Assessment Of The Scheme 37
How To Implement The Pilot Project 38
Why Is It Necessary To Take Action Today 39
Conclusion 40
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Introduction
(This is not about Bicycle vs Motorcycle, but, how bicycle is
complementary to motorized vehicles)

In India, over a period of time, with the increase in household income,
two-wheelers took over the role played by the bicycle, leading to
negative consequences like wastage of fuel, increase in pollution and
also contributing the unhealthy lifestyle.
Once a two-wheeler enters the household, the use of bicycle starts to

diminish and people start using two-wheelers even for very short
distances like distances between 500 meters to 1 KM radius.
This case study emphasis on the following questions:
 How India is losing between ₹ 8,500 Cr and
₹25,000Cr every year in term of fuel wastage and
how big is the problem?
 What are the effective solutions for the problem?
 How cost benefit ratio is better than 1:3 ?
 How does every rupee spent on bicycle, add more
than three rupees to the GDP?
 How to provide best possible bicycle under ₹2500?
 How can it create lakhs of employment
opportunities?
 How can ‘Bicycle’ help in fight against poverty?
 What are the new ways to promote Bicycle?
 What are the economic, environmental, health and
social benefits?
 How the scheme if properly implemented is
infallible?
 What will be the cost of not taking any action in the
near future?
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SUMMARY
In India, Automobile industry, in last 8 years sold more than 12 Cr

two-wheelers and more than 20 million units in 2017/18 only.
Number of households with two wheelers = 36% of total

household = 89.64 million
(India NHFW survey 201516) & (ICE 360 degree survey 2016)
The cost of fuel per litre is taken as ₹ 34.63
crude oil price = $58; 1$ = 72₹ October 2019
Refining cost of petrol ₹ 8.06
Assuming one person from a household go to mother dairy

which is 750 meters away from his house on motor cycle. Total
distance travelled will be 1.5 km daily. Motorcycles are very
inefficient in such short distances.
Loss no. 1) ₹ 8497 Cr yearly (this is the cost of one trip and

every household make two or three such trips daily). So present
loss to Indian government should be between ₹ 8500 Cr
and ₹ 25000 Cr.
This is the cost to Indian government only. Cost to India is far
greater if we calculate environment degradation, health hazards
etc.
Loss no. 2) 2.45 to 7.5 bn litres of fuel burnt into fumes
needlessly.
*Here cost of taking no action will continue to increase and its
ill effects will continue to compound.
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SUMMARY
FEW Of THE PROPOSALS
1. Design a new Roadster bicycle model: Design a costeffective
bicycle model with decent visual appeal and optimum utility
with the help of IITs, govt agencies and bicycle industry. (eg.
Gear bicycle for hilly regions).
2. Government should exempt that bicycle model from all taxes.
3. Government may further subsidize one bicycle per household
by giving back ₹ 1000 to purchaser through JAN DHAN
ACCOUNT.
Justification
Assuming subsidy given to per bicycle is ₹ 1000 and the
household uses bicycle instead of motorised vehicle than
Distance * fuel consumption per km * crude oil cost * 365
1.5 * .05 * 34.63 * 365 = 947.99
1.5 * .04 * 34.63 * 365 = 758.39
A bicycle can save the government between ₹758 and ₹948
in a single year.
4. Awareness and sensitization campaign should be started

assuming at the cost of ₹ 500 Cr yearly and promote the use of
Bicycle with same intensity as that of SWACHH BHARAT
ABHIYAN.
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SUMMARY
Cost Impact Of Implementation (Exaggerated cost)
Assuming selling 4 crore bicycles yearly in order to cover all
25cr households in little more than 6 years. Assuming giving
subsidy of ₹ 1000
(4 crore * 1000) + 500 crore = 4500cr yearly.
Even this cost is quite less than potential benefits of the
program.
No of Bicycle Bicycle Govt. Saving @ Saving

Year Purchase by Purchase Expenditur 20 Kmpl @ 25
Households by e (INR Cr) Kmpl
(with Motorized
Veh)
Household (INR Cr) (INR
s Cr)
(w/o Motorized
Veh)
1st Yr 3 Cr 1 Cr 4500 2844 2275
2nd Yr 3 Cr 1 Cr 4500 5688 4550
2nd Yr 2 Cr 2 Cr 4500 7584 6067
Total - - 13500 16116 12892
Which is considerably less than potential benefits of the

program that is forex saved, employment generation,
environmental and health benefits. Benefits outweighs the cost
with great margin.
* If this scheme is implemented than we can provide the
best possible bicycle at most affordable rates in the whole
world to every Indian household.
* Apart from government appeal, improved quality
Bicycle will also become an incentivising factor for
promoting the use of bicycle.
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SUMMARY
ECONOMIC BENEFITS:
1. Forex Reserve Saving: It can save exchequer between ₹
8500cr to 25000 cr every year.
2. Doubles The Size Of Bicycle Industry: Bicycle industry
manufactures nearly 1.65 Cr (89.04 lakh roadster+41.56 lakh
fancy+18.71 lakh kids+others) bicycles yearly. This program if
implemented properly have potential to easily double the
production of bicycles.
3. Lakhs of Employment Opportunity: Doubling the size of
industry means that it will create lakhs of employment
opportunity in the industry.
4. ₹ 14,500 Crore Potential Boost To The GDP: This will give
boost to economic activities not only in bicycle industry but to
other industries too.

3 cr (New Bicycles) * 3500(MRP of bicycle) = 10,500 cr ₹
(increased economic activity)
Boost to Indian GDP will be
8,500 cr (fuel saving ) + 10,500 cr (increased economic
activity) 4500 cr ( subsidy) = 14,500 cr
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SUMMARY
5. New Industrial Towns: Two New Industrial towns can be
created on the line of Ludhiana.
6. Increase In The Productivity Of BPL Households: Bicycle
will become affordable for those who do not own any means of
transport and hence improve the productivity of BPL households
by improving their mobility. Specially School children from BPL
households.
8. We will be able to manufacture the best quality bicycle at
most affordable price in the world. This will also improve
industry's export competitiveness vis a vis to Chinese
bicycles industry.
As Present scenario does not look promising
CONCLUSION: This scheme will not only promote

bicycle and bicycle industry, but also, will be a fight against
poverty, promote the mass environmental sensitization,
education, sustainable and healthy lifestyle, and further
may help to the bind the society in the single Thread called
Bicycle.
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CASE STUDY
A Way to provide Bicycle to Every household Plus saving the
Government Exchequer Thousands of crore Rupees Every
Year
The thought of “Back to Vedas” is more relevant today than
ever. There is a renewal of thought that “health is wealth”. The
philosophy of economics from organics is engulfing the world.
So, in this context the increased use of Bicycle by the present
generation has to be considered a sort of Renaissance, which
can have a dramatic impact on the socioeconomic health of the
individual, society and the nation.
It is time that Bicycle should
be made an essential
commodity of a household
just like toilet, water,
electricity connection. A
household without bicycle
should be considered
deprived. BPL should now
mean “Bicycle Providence
Limit”. This article is not
about Bicycle vs Motorcycle
as its nearest competitor but
about how Bicycle can
supplement motorcycles and
cars and highlighting its role
as a means of transport for
the reason that if we keep
bicycle out of INDIA's growth
story, then it is the loss of
opportunity, money and
environment. It has a small
role but an essential one that
no other mode of transport
can beat bicycle within 1 km
radius in terms of efficiency, health benefit etc.
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Eg: people traveling to kiryana shops, barber shop or going to
the gym with in radius of 1 km. (This is the most conservative
figure taken in order not to inflate loss to the govt) Of India.
(Minimum possible loss)
My observation about bicycle and motorcycle= first time
motorcycle buyer does not buy bicycles afterwards because of
the following reasons:
1. One sees bicycle as legacy of poverty(stigma). So, he even
stops using his old bicycle.
2. For him, bicycle becomes expensive as it becomes an
unnecessary thing and spending ₹4000 on bicycles not worth.
(why not to purchase ₹ 4000 fuel than silly bicycle).
3. Then he starts using motorcycle even for shortest distances
eg. 500 m to 750 m radius. Motorcycles are very inefficient for
such short trips.
4. Teenagers, in India, considers bicycle as a toy for children
and motorcycle as a prized possession.
Entity taken here is a household not a person (4.9 persons per
household).
Twowheeler mean efficiency is assumed to be 20 km/l to 25
km/l (.04 litres to 0.05 litre of fuel is consumed per km)
considering following factors:
1. Motor vehicles are least efficient during ignition, gear shifting
and accelerating phase.

2. In India, motor cycles never go out of use. Older the vehicle,
the same get pushed to hinterlands from urban area. With each
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passing year, as cost of old vehicles reduces so as its efficiency
(more polluting). Bharat Stages BSI, BSII, BSIII and BSIV
were launched in 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2017 respectively and
even BSI standard or older vehicles are still running on the
roads.
Total number of households in India = 249 million
Number of households with two wheelers = 36% of total
household = 89.64 million (ICE 360 degree survey 2016)
Assuming one person from a household go to mother dairy

which is 750 meters away from his house on motor cycle. Total
distance travelled will be 1.5 km daily. Motorcycles are very
inefficient in such short distances.
Daily distance in KM covered by 89 million households will be
= 89,640,000* 1.5=134,460,000 km
Daily fuel consumption = 134,460,000 * .05 =6,723,000 litres.
Yearly fuel consumed = 6,723,000 * 365 = 2,453,895,000
litres.
The cost of fuel per litre is taken as ₹ 34.63 considering

current crude oil price in dollar ($65) and rate of dollar in
Indian rupee ($1=65) in April 2018
Refining cost of petrol ₹ 8.06
Yearly cost of fuel burnt= 2,453,895,000 * 34.63=
84,97,83,83,850 or approx. ₹ 8497 Cr.
Loss no. 1) ₹ 8497 Cr yearly (this is the cost of one trip and
every household make two or three such trips daily).
Daily one trip costs Indian government ₹ 8497 Cr per year.
Daily two such trips cost Indian government nearly ₹ 16994 Cr
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per year.
Daily three such trips cost Indian government ₹ 25493 Cr per
year.
So present cost to Indian government should be in-

between ₹ 8500 to ₹ 25000 Cr.
This is the cost to Indian government only. Cost to India is far
greater if we calculate environment degradation, health hazards
etc.
Loss no. 2) 2.45 bn litres of fuel burnt into fumes needlessly.
For two to three trips it will be between 5 bn to 7.5 bn litres per
year
Both losses keep on increasing on yearly basis as number of
motorised vehicle owners going to increase every year.
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Argument against the Premise:
Argument 1. Future is electric vehicles. So, no pollution, no
problem.
Counterargument: Issues with electric vehicles:
i) Range and capacity of electric motorcycle is still very less.
ii) Long charging time and depreciation of battery life after each
charging and discharging cycle.
iii) Still expensive enough for common man.
iv) Still 72% electricity generated by coal fired plants in 2018
19. So, electricity yet to become cleaner.
v) If we made such technological advancement which make
travel to such short distances more energy efficient, time saving
at meagre cost, even then we do not want our society to be a
WHEELCHAIR BOUND SOCIETY. That is not sustainable.(wall
E movie utopia scene)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h1BQPViCkU
vi) Electric bicycle will done away with the positive health
benefits of cycling.
vii) Electric vehicles can be the part of the solution but not
the whole solution.
Argument 2. Cycling is not safe on Indian Roads.
Counterargument: Below table shows that cyclists are neither a
major contributor to road accidents, nor the major victims of
road accidents.
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Argument 3. Motorcycle saves time.
Counterargument :
i) Within 1km radius motorcycles hardly saves any time
and 2 or 3 min saved is not worth the health benefits of
cycling for such short distance.
ii) Relation between blind fast paced life and mental health
is not difficult to surmise.
iii) This is for people and society at large to think that in the
race of saving 2 – 3 mins, Is it worth that we lose our
peace of mind and sometimes purpose of life ?
Argument 4. Indian weather is too hot to go outside in sunny
days.
Counterargument:
i) 70% to 90% Indians are deficient in vitamin D. We need
to go outside in the sun. (vitamin d plus essential
nutrients' supplementation is also needed)
PanIndia study in 2019 authored by diabetologist PG
Talwalkar, and Vaishali Deshmukh, MC Deepak and
Dinesh Aggarwal.
Argument 5. Why should the customer buy a bicycle or How is
it beneficial to the consumer?
Counterargument:
i) If government bring down the cost of basic model of bicycle
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to ₹2500 or less. Then:
daily avoidable distance * fuel consumed per KM * present
petrol price * 365
1.5*.05*75 * 365 =₹ 2053.12 can be saved yearly by the cyclist
and his bicycle will become free in 14 months (1 year and 2
months).
Daily two such trips can make bicycle free in 7 months.
Daily three such trips can make bicycle free in 4 months.
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TOTAL HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS
It is safe to assume that if we can motivate people to use bicycle
in 1KM radius, every household will be able to save ₹5000 to
₹7000 for itself.
₹5000 to ₹7000 (Rupees saved per household) * 89.64 million
households = ₹44,820 Cr to ₹62,748 Cr of Total Household
Saving
Roughly Total Household Saving will be between ₹50,000
Cr to ₹60,000 Cr .
Today, all this money goes to petroleum industry only, but if
this scheme is implemented properly, this 50 to 60 thousand
crores rupees will further help to diversify the Indian economy.
*These figures make more sense in the age of market driven
petrol prices.
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SUGGESTIONS:
1. Design a new basic bicycle model: Design a costeffective
bicycle model with decent visual appeal and optimum utility
with the help of IITs, govt agencies and bicycle industry. (eg.
Gear bicycle for hilly regions).
2. Every bicycle manufacturer should be allowed to manufacture
that specific model.
3. Government should exempt that bicycle model from all taxes.
4. Mass production of the bicycle model may also further bring
down the prices.
5. Awareness and sensitization campaign should be started
assuming at the cost of ₹ 500 Cr yearly and promote the use of
Bicycle specially among teenagers.
(Promote bicycle as a ‘Preventive Health Care’ tool)
6. Government may further subsidize one bicycle per household
by giving back ₹ 1000 to purchaser through JAN DHAN
ACCOUNT.
(Justification is given on page 18)
7. Government should promote use of bicycle from every public
platform with same intensity as that of SWACHH BHARAT
ABHIYAN.
8. In every advertisement and appeal for SWACHH BHARAT,
add a single line of appeal, asking people to use bicycle.
9. Bicycle industry should tailor made its advertisements in
order to focus economy, environment and energy savings aspect
of bicycles. Promote cycling as a Fun Activity.
Glamorize it like kabaddi “Bicycle is not the helplessness of
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the poor but choice of SMART, young at heart and

responsible people”.
10. Corporate sector can be roped in by allowing Corporate
Social Responsibility (CSR) Fund to be used in promoting and
spreading awareness of cycle commutation, as conserving and
preserving environment is not only a social and moral
responsibility but also a constitutional duty. [Article 51A(g)]
11. Establish a committee including all stakeholders
(Government, industry and experts in the field) to find out
other innovative ways to increase the use of bicycle.
12. We must keep bicycle in consideration while planning and
development of future infrastructure projects. It should be an
essential part of 'New India'. (Smart cities without bicycle is not
a smart idea)
13. Every petrol twowheeler should be charged Rs 2500 extra (
cost of one bicycle).
Similarly, Give away 2, 3, 4 and so on numbers of bicycles for
every vehicle sold below Rs 5 lakh, below 10 lakh, below 15
lakh and so on to those who even can not afford Rs 2500
bicycle.(Poorest of the Poor)
14. Government should promote bicycle sharing schemes in
densely populated cities and build proper infrastructure to
promote the use of bicycle. In this regard, there is so much to
learn from countries like Netherland.
15. Find out why do people in USA, Europe use bicycle more
but not in India? Countries like Japan and Israel are
technologically far more advanced, even they have not forgotten
their basics such as bicycle but why are we trying to leave
bicycle behind? Are we really hundreds of years behind them in
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term of mentality? I do not think so. But we need to find

answers. Even country like china which we want to compete
with her manufacturing prowess have not left behind the
bicycle.
JUSTIFICATION FOR ₹ 1000 SUBSIDY
Justification 1
Assuming subsidy given to per bicycle is ₹ 1000 and a
household uses bicycle instead of motorised vehicle than
Distance * fuel consumption per km * crude oil cost * 365
1.5 * .05 * 34.63 * 365 = 947.99
1.5 * .04 * 34.63 * 365 = 758.39
Above is the amount which a bicycle can save the government of
INDIA in a single year.
A bicycle can remain in working condition for 5 to 6 years.
This way, Household with Motorised Vehicle (HwMV)i.e. (1/3
of total households) can save more than enough for the subsidy
for the households without motorised vehicle (Hw/oMV) i.e.
2/3 of total households.
Justification 2
If government bring down the cost of basic model of bicycle to ₹
2500 or less. Then:
daily avoidable distance * fuel consumed per KM * present

petrol price * 365
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1.5*.05*75 * 365 =₹ 2053.12 can be saved yearly by the cyclist
and his bicycle will become free in 14 months (1 year and 2
months).
Daily two such trips can make bicycle free in 7 months.
Daily three such trips can make bicycle free in 4 months.
TOTAL HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS
It is safe to assume that if we can motivate people to use bicycle
in 1KM radius, every household will be able to save ₹5000 to
₹7000 for itself.
₹5000 to ₹7000 (Rupees saved per household) * 89.64 million
households = ₹44,820 Cr to ₹62,748 Cr of Total Household
Saving
Roughly Total Household Saving will be between ₹50,000
Cr to ₹60,000 Cr .
Today, all this money goes to petroleum industry only, but if
this scheme is implemented properly, this 50 to 60 thousand
crores rupees will further help to diversify the Indian economy.
*These figures make more sense in the age of market driven
petrol prices.
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ASSUMED COST OF THE PROGRAM
Bicycle industry manufactures nearly 1.65 Cr bicycles yearly.
(89.04 lac roadster+41.56 lac fancy+18.71 lac kids+others)
Assuming selling 4 crore bicycles yearly in order to cover all
25cr households in little more than 6 years. Assuming giving
subsidy of ₹ 1000
(4 crore * 1000) + 500 crore = 4500cr yearly.
Even this cost is quite less than potential benefits of the
program.
No of Bicycle Bicycle Govt. Savin Saving

Year Purchase Purchase Expendit g @ 20 @ 25
by by ure Kmpl Kmpl
Households Households (INR Cr) (INR (INR
(with Motorized (w/o Motorized Cr) Cr)
Veh) Veh)
1st Yr 3 Cr 1 Cr 4500 2844 2275
2nd Yr 3 Cr 1 Cr 4500 5688 4550
2nd Yr 2 Cr 2 Cr 4500 7584 6067
Total - - 13500 16116 12892
Which is considerably less than potential benefits of the

program that is forex saved, employment generation,
environmental and health benefits. Benefits outweighs the cost
with great margin.
*Flow of money is not unidirectional/linear. It is circular in
motion; therefore, a part of the subsidy will come back to the
government coffers in term of increase in income tax of the
industrialists.
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* If this scheme is implemented than we can provide the

best possible bicycle at most affordable rates in the whole
world to every Indian household.
* Apart from government appeal, improved quality
Bicycle will also become an incentivising factor for
promoting the use of bicycle.
(Above is not the cost but investment for better returns in
both present and future)
*In India, state governments, distribute more than 2.5

million bicycles free of cost through different schemes every
year, which should cost more than 600 Cr, that is inefficient
and has every few positive externalities plus few negative
effects. Smart and effective use of government funds can
provide more beneficial outcomes to all stake holders.
(Cheap bicycle and Nano eg)
*Distributing bicycles without promoting use of it, is like
building toilets without SWACHH BHARAT Campaign.
(Hardly anyone will use it)
*It is easier to promote the 'Bicycle for Every Household'
and its use as compared to 'Swachh Bharat Abhiyan' as it not
only adds a commodity to every household, a healthy and
costeffective exercise, but also a fun activity to do.
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How to Raise Initial Funds For The

Scheme
By Increasing the price of every diesel and petrol vehicle by 1%
of its exshowroom price for three years only.
Sale of twowheelers in the year 201718 = 20,192,672 units
Sale of passenger + commercial vehicles in the year 201718 =
41,44,418 units
This way government can generate more than ₹3,000 Cr every
year, which will be more than enough to kick start the Scheme.
After three years, scheme will be selfsustainable and this
money can be used in providing free bicycles to those who even
can not afford Rs 2500 bicycle.(Poorest of the Poor)
Or, Remove the tax after 3 or 4 years and
Charge 'Rs 50,000 above petrol twowheeler' with Rs 2500 extra
( cost of one bicycle).
Similarly, Give away, 2, 3, 4 and so on, numbers of bicycles for
every vehicle sold below Rs 5 lakh, 10 lakh, 15 lakh and so on,
to those who even can not afford Rs 2500 bicycle.(Poorest of
the Poor)
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BENEFITS OF PROMOTING USES OF BICYCLE IN 1

KM RADIUS
1. ECONOMIC BENEFITS:
* It can save exchequer between ₹ 8500 cr to 25000 cr every
year.
*Bicycle industry manufactures nearly 1.65 Cr (89.04 lac
roadster+41.56 lac fancy+18.71 lac kids+others) bicycles
yearly. This program if implemented properly have potential to
easily double the production of bicycles. Means doubling the
size of industry and may further lead to double the employment
opportunity in the industry.
*This will give boost to economic activities not only in bicycle
industry but to other industries too.
3 cr (New Bicycles) * 3500(MRP of bicycle) = ₹10,500cr
(increased economic activity)
Boost to The GDP will be
8,500 cr (fuel saving) + 10,500 cr (increased economic
activity) 4500 cr (subsidy) = 14,500 cr
It means every rupee spent create more than three rupees.
*Potential of tremendous employment generation (doubling of
the present workforce): most of workforce in bicycle industry is
in unorganized sector (SMEs). If bicycle industry grows, so will
the employment opportunities.
*Economic Empowerment of the Poor: Bicycle will become
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affordable for those who do not own any means of

transport(more than 50% households) and hence improve the
productivity of lower earning households by improving their
mobility. Specially School children from poor households.
*We will be able to manufacture the best quality bicycle at
most affordable price in the world. This will also improve
industry's export competitiveness vis a vis to Chinese
bicycles industry.
*we can expect growth in export figures of bicycle industry to
increase up to five folds.
2. BENEFITS To HEALTH And HEALTH SECTOR:
Health:
* TERI report of 2014 “Pedalling Towards A GREENER INDIA”,
“According to the Annual Health Report (2011) of the Ministry
of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India, nearly half
of all the deaths in India are primarily due to non
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communicable diseases, many of which are linked to inactive
and unhealthy lifestyles like cardiovascular diseases, diabetes,
diseases resulting from obesity, etc. Most of these diseases affect
the person in the productive years and are largely attributed to
unhealthy lifestyles, lack of physical activity, and the resulting
increased rates of obesity among the masses.”
TERI Report 2014 “The World Health Organization(WHO)
listed obesity and lack of physical activity as two of the five
leading global risks for mortality. WHO estimated that obesity is
responsible for the following global disease burdens: 44% of
diabetes; 23% of ischaemic heart disease; and 7% to 41% of
certain cancers.13 Estimates for physical inactivity burdens
were 27% of diabetes, 30% of ischaemic heart disease, and 21%
to 25% of breast and colon cancers.”
TERI Report 2014 “Considering the high cost and long

duration of treatment, these diseases are not only a financial
burden to the common man but also a huge cost to the
economy. The Harvard School of Public Health has, in a study
on economic losses due to noncommunicable diseases (NCDs),
estimated that the economic burden of these ailments for India
will be close to $6.2 trillion for the period 2012–30, a figure
that is equivalent to nearly nine times the total health
expenditure during the previous 19 years of $710 billion.”
*There are 30 million obese Indians, according to medical

journal The Lancet in 2016. (By 2025, this number is expected
to pass 70 million.) India has 14.4 million obese children, which
is second only to china which has 15.3 million overweight kids,
says a study published in the New England Journal of Medicine.
(A sedentary lifestyle and junk food are the main causes. Indian
diets are carbohydrateheavy and oilrich.)
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*The cost of Obesity to the individual and to the nation is very
high –the cost of heart disease, renal transplants, knee
replacements and diabetic treatment is huge. In India, increase
in diabetes is directly proportional to increase in prosperity.
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*According to the NonCommunicable Diseases Country Profiles
released by the WHO, of the estimated 98.16 lakh deaths in
India, NCDs led to nearly 6 million, which is 60% of the total
mortality reported annually in the country.
Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading cause of
mortality, accounting for more than half of all deaths resulting
from NCDs. The burden of CVDs is rising at a significantly high
rate among middleincome and lowerincome geographies.
*The increased prevalence of heart diseases in India can be

attributed mainly to lifestyle factors like tobacco use, unhealthy
diet, physical inactivity and psychosocial stress.
*Economic burden of NonCommunicable Diseases
*The ASSOCHAM report on Preventive Health care and its
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impact on Corporate Sector states that “One rupee spent on

prevention saves ₹133 in absenteeism costs and ₹6.62 in
health care costs”.
*Bicycle can be promoted as a tool for ‘preventive health
care’. Eg Yoga, Exercise etc.
*Have potential of bring down the health expenditure of
common household by making them healthy.
*This is also needed to be monetized.
3. ENVIRONMENT BENEFITS:
*'SWACHH BHARAT' is not possible without 'SWACHH VAAYU'
* From 2.5 bn to 7 bn litres of petrol could be saved from
burning into fumes.
* Ever material used in the bicycle is recyclable.
*If the loss to environment is monetized it may also be in
thousands of crore rupees.
4. SOCIAL BENEFITS:
 If a vehicle owner travel 1 KM daily by bicycle he will be
more aware and respectful of other cyclists and pedestrian
needs and safety.
 Because only the wearer knows where the shoe pinches.
This may even help to make Indian roads safer.
 Helps in proper implementation of Motor Vehicle Act and
enhance the safety of teenagers and public.
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 It can become first practical step in educating and

sensitising the society about the environmental safeguards.
 It is one of the best ways to address ‘Last Mile
Connectivity Issue’.
 Helps in weave society through single thread called
'Bicycle'.
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WAYS TO PROMOTE USE OF BICYCLE
“Each pedal is for the Poor”
Cycling is not only for health and environment, but also, is the
way of contributing to the ‘less fortunate part of the population’.
Because every pedal of the bicycle save the resources for the
country which may further be spent for the welfare of the
needy.

*Carrot and Stick Model
Stick
* Strict implementation of Motor Vehicle Act and ensuring
punishment for parents who give motorized vehicle to their
children below 18 years of age as they are not only endangering
their children's life but also endangering the life of public on the
road. This may also help in addressing road safety issue in India
and promote use of bicycles among teenagers. Every student
from economically weaker section should have a bicycle for
productive utilization of their time.
(Police flaw: police most of the time simply challan the minor
'driving the motorised vehicle' of 'driving without the licence'.
So, we do not have any credible data of below 18 MVA
offenders.)
k2
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*From above tables, inference can be deduced that number of
minors, driving the motorised vehicles is substantial.
Carrot
*Give cyclists an online platform where they can record,
measure and compare their daily/weekly/yearly achievements
in health and contribution to India (In terms of air quality,
reduction carbon foot print, revenue saved etc) in monetary
term.
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A GPS based device can be fitted in a bicycle so that, a cyclist
can connect that device via a 'special app' with their
smartphones so they can track their distance covered on bicycle
and get it recorded on online platform. In this way, distance
covered by registered cyclists can be recorded.
Suggestion given below will be better than every measure that
bicycle industry demands from the government.
Bicycle industry demands: Reduction of taxes and subsidy(500
cr to 600 cr) and PAN India Bicycle campaign.(500 Cr)
Cost of the above demands will definitely be more than Rs 1000
crore.
But even after spending Rs1000 crore, its hard to estimate how
much it will motivate the common man to start using bicycle.
But If government decide to distribute Rs 6 lakhs in every
district of India(723) directly to the cyclist who travel the
maximum distance and make maximum short distance
maximum trips in the following fashion,
eg,
1st prize Rs 25,000
2nd prize Rs 20,000
3rd prize Rs 15,000
4th prize Rs 10,000
Next 6 prizes Rs 5,000 each
Next 100 prizes Rs 1,000 each
Next 200 prizes Rs 500 each
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Monthly cost will be Rs 600,000 * 723(districts)=43,38,00,000
(43.38 crore)
Yearly cost will be Rs 43.38 * 12(months)=520.56 crore
Here, number of people receiving prizes every month is
15,97,830 (15.97 lakhs)
Number of people receiving prizes every year is 1,91,73,960
(1.91 crore)
Out of these prize winners, lucky winners should be selected
and given an opportunity to meet their favourite movie star,
sportsperson etc.
OPTIONAL: “Winning sum may be used in giving discount on
electricity/water bills etc (This may help in regularization or
registration of electric or water meters and may help in reducing
the transmission losses).”
“More the person cycles, fitter he/she gets, and this data can be
utilized by insurance companies to reduce the insurance
premium of the cyclist.
The day, this online platform start distributing 520 crore rupees
to its 1.91crore subscribers every year, its total subscription will
definitely cross 20 crore and hopefully will be able to recover
portion of expenditure money through selling advertisements.
If government able to sell 50 paisa advertisement to each
subscriber, than government will be able to generate
₹10 cr daily and ₹3650 Cr yearly.
With this money, government can distribute more than 1 crore
bicycles yearly free of cost to the household which can not
even buy ₹2500 bicycle that too.\
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Such a large subscriber base app can open the gates for many
opportunities, only limited by the imagination of human mind.
*GPS can be replaced by "NavIC" (Navigation with Indian

Constellation) enabled devices. It would have following benefits
>encourages manufacturers to make NavIC compatible
devices so that, citizens can start using NavIC services asap.
>facilitates penetration of NavIC services, make such devices
affordable, increase utility of IRNSS satellites and encourages
citizens to use NavIC and help users to wean away from GPS.
Example: * 2018 Budgetary allocation to Ministry of Health

and Family Welfare is 52,800 cr
* Cost of National Health Protection Scheme (NHPS) as per
NITI AAYOG is ₹ 10,000 cr to 12,000 cr yearly. (Other reports
peg this expenditure around ₹ 25,000 cr yearly)
* The additional ₹ 11,000 cr raised from increasing the
education and health cess from 3% to 4% will also be used to
fund NHPS.
* The taxpayer may feel robbed by this arbitrary increase of tax
and the same tax payer can save government more than Rs4000
cr yearly by voluntarily responding to government campaign
“GiveItUp”.
In the same way, if government appeal the vehicle users, to use
bicycle for short distances and each trip will help the
government to save more than ₹ 8500 cr yearly.
*Incentivising the households which makes maximum number
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of short trips on bicycle.
* Attach sense of using the bicycle to the charity towards poor
or offering to the God and the day will not be far when the
bicycle will save more than half of 'Health and Family Welfare
Ministry' budget.
(image of the poor blessing the cyclist)
*It can become one of the ways of mobilizing the true potential
of Indian Demography.
*Organise Bicycle race events like 'Tour de France' but with the
condition of using the same Rs 2500 bicycle model where both
rich and poor can take part and give hefty some of money to the
winners.
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FEASIBILITY ASSESSMENT
(HwMV = Household with Motorised Vehicle)
Assuming after fullfledged roll out of ‘Bicycle for every
household’ campaign, we could motivate following percentage
of households (HwMV) to take three trips, two trips and one
trip respectively.
One trip = 1.5 km

7% (HwMV) * 3 trips = 21%
12% (HwMV) * 2 trips = 24%
20% (HwMV) * 1 trips = 20%
39% (HwMV) = 65%
Meaning 39% HwMV have potential to save 65% of 8500 cr.
64% of 8500 Cr is 5440 Cr which is still substantially more than
maximum assumed expenditure of 4500 Cr.
In the above scenario it was assumed that 61% HwMV choose
not to use bicycle at all, which is near impossible to think.
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HOW TO IMPLEMENT THE PILOT PROJECT
It is difficult to launch such a largescale program at one go;
therefore, government should first launch it in phases to study
the impact.
First Phase
Government should distribute 1000 GPS enabled bicycle to
HwMVs in any selected district. GPS should be connected to
special ‘Smartphone App’ where user can monitor the distance
travelled and can also measure individual benefits and
contribution to the country.
(In terms of air quality, reduction carbon foot print, revenue saved etc) in
monetary term.
PHASE II
After successful implementation of the first phase, 10000
bicycles should be distributed to ten different cities in different
states.The cost of implementation of both Phase I and Phase II
should be under ₹ 10 Cr
PHASE III
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If the result of phase II is positive then the program should be
implemented in the whole country.
WHY IS IT NECESSARY TO TAKE ACTION TODAY?
*INDIA is at the cusp of growth trajectory.
India GDP in 2017 is $2.439 trillion(nominal) and GDP per
capita is $1852 (nominal)
Projection of NITI Aayog
India GDP in 2030 will be $7.25 trillion(nominal) and GDP per
capita will be around $4745(nominal). (figure arrived by
dividing projected GDP in 2030 by NITI AAYOG to the
population projection in 2030 by UN Population Division)
Means 2.5 times increase in per capita income. With the
increase in purchasing power, there will be a huge boom in
motorcycle industry and greater will be the effect of 'avoidable
distance travelled' and bigger will be the lost opportunity.
FOLLOWING TABLE WILL MAKE IT CLEAR
THIS IS THE MINIMUM COST OF TAKING NO ACTION
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*Above is the cost of one trip. For better assessment, loss should
multiply by the factor of 2 or 3. loss should be twice or thrice of
the above figures.
*Here cost of taking no action will continue to increase and its
ill effects will continue to compound. This is loss to the govt of
India only. Loss to India is many times more.
WHY IS IT DIFFICULT TO IMPLEMENT THIS PROGRAM?
It is very difficult to change the psyche of one billion plus
population in INDIA. It is a humongous challenge but as big as
opportunity and that is why, intervention of the government is
required at the highest level. This is the work of true Leaders.
They dare to face the challenge and take country to path of
prosperity irrespective of any number of odds.
Because leadership is not about the next election, it is about
next generation.
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CONCLUSION: This scheme will not only promote

bicycle and bicycle industry, but also, will be a fight against
poverty, promote the mass environmental sensitization,
education, sustainable and healthy lifestyle, and further
may help to the bind the society in the single Thread called
Bicycle.
In addition to above article. Please also read TERI report of
2014 “Pedalling Towards A GREENER INDIA” supported by All
India Cycle Manufacturers' Association (AICMA). File is
attached below. Please, at least go through the Executive
Summary of the report and see the difference between TERI
report and my Report.
THANK YOU and Jai Hind.
Arun Sehrawat
Mobile no. 9899999385
email: arun.sehrawat@yahoo.co.in
http://www.ice360.in/en/projects/homepageservey/onein
threehouseholdsinindiaownsatwowheeler1
http://aicma.org/publications2/
Mob:9899999385

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A Way to provide Bicycle to Every

MOTIVATED BY THE CALL OF OUR HON’BLE PRIME MINISTER

Once a two-wheeler enters the household, the use of bicycle starts to

In India, Automobile industry, in last 8 years sold more than 12 Cr

Number of households with two wheelers = 36% of total

Assuming one person from a household go to mother dairy

Loss no. 1) ₹ 8497 Cr yearly (this is the cost of one trip and

FEW Of THE PROPOSALS

4. Awareness and sensitization campaign should be started

No of Bicycle Bicycle Govt. Saving @ Saving

Which is considerably less than potential benefits of the

CONCLUSION: This scheme will not only promote

Assuming one person from a household go to mother dairy

The cost of fuel per litre is taken as ₹ 34.63 considering

So present cost to Indian government should be in-

the poor but choice of SMART, young at heart and

term of mentality? I do not think so. But we need to find

daily avoidable distance * fuel consumed per KM * present

No of Bicycle Bicycle Govt. Savin Saving

Which is considerably less than potential benefits of the

* If this scheme is implemented than we can provide the

*In India, state governments, distribute more than 2.5

How to Raise Initial Funds For The

BENEFITS OF PROMOTING USES OF BICYCLE IN 1

affordable for those who do not own any means of

TERI Report 2014 “Considering the high cost and long

*There are 30 million obese Indians, according to medical

*The increased prevalence of heart diseases in India can be

*The ASSOCHAM report on Preventive Health care and its

impact on Corporate Sector states that “One rupee spent on

 It can become first practical step in educating and

*GPS can be replaced by "NavIC" (Navigation with Indian

Example: * 2018 Budgetary allocation to Ministry of Health

CONCLUSION: This scheme will not only promote

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