Petroleum Department Third Stage Petroleum Economics at Factors Effecting Decline Curve 1) Formation parameters 2) Well bore parameters 1) Formation parameters This parameter is related to reservoir properties Such as: Porosity, permeability, thickness, fluid saturation, viscosities, relative permeability, reservoir size, well spacing, compressibility, producing mechanisms & fracturing. 2) Well bore parameters These include: Hole diameter, formation damage, lifting mechanism, solution gas, free gas, fluid level, completion interval & mechanical conditions. Factors that determine the rate of decline and whether declines are exponential, hyperbolic, or harmonic include rock and fluid properties, reservoir geometry, drive mechanisms, completion techniques, operating practices, and wellbore type. These factors must be understood prior to analyzing the production decline trends or serious errors in the ultimate production, The decline curve equations assume that reservoir rock and fluid properties (porosity, permeability, formation volume factor, viscosity, and saturation) governing the flow rate will not change with time or pressure. While the assumption is not entirely correct, industry experience has proven that decline curves present a practical way to forecast well production in all but the most unusual circumstances. s+ Production Profiles Development planning and production are usually based on the expected production profile which depends strongly on the mechanism providing the driving force in the reservoir. The production profile will determine the facilities required and the number and phasing of wells to be drilled. The production profile will be optimized through economic analysis with sub-surface. Engineering and commercial inputs. Factors includingPetroleum Department Third Stage Petroleum Economics production rate maintenance options need to be considered and the production profile should reflect downtime of wells and facilities which will reduce production volume over a given period and along the duration of production. The basis of Revenue is production, and in the upstream petroleum business, production is mostly derived directly from natural oil and gas reservoirs. at Elements of a Production Profile 1- Build up phase Build up is the phase of production from start to peak. It is the time when development wells are being drilled and new wells are coming on stream. The outcome depends on the tate at which wells are drilled and brought on stream and on the performance of these wells as they come on stream. Speed of build up may be improved by pre-drilling of wells and by ensuring that early wells intersect the most productive parts of the reservoir. Speed of build up is diminished by mechanical drilling problems or by unforeseen geological problems in the reservoir. 2- Plateau Phase The peak years can dominate the economic performance of a project and must therefore be properly planned. Higher rate means higher system capacity, more wells, larger pipes and vessels, more platforms and more cost. There must, therefore be a balance between rate and reserves to ensure optimal economics. 3- Decline Phase Once production falls off plateau, it enters a phase of natural decline, the detail of which depends on reservoir architecture and energy. In practice, the outcome depends on the skill of the Geological, Reservoir and Production Engineers to understand the reservoir, to drill infill wells and to apply appropriate pressure maintenance and artificial lift technology.Petroleum Department Third Stage Petroleum Economics 4- Economic Limit Petroleum production normally comes to an end before the reservoir is fully depleted Depending on the nature of the reservoir and the fluids, recovery may be as low as 10%. Production terminates for economic reasons. Figure below illustrate elements of production profile. ements fs Production Profle al a a z = © s s a, 2 © 6 2 Prajet Years Elements of production profilePetroleum Department Third Stage Petroleum Economics First Oil Decline Appraisal Abandonment Well | Economic Limit > A theoretical production curve, describing the various stages of maturity