Oracle Real Time Decision

Vincenzo Scinicariello
Oracle Consulting BI & DWH
Principal Consulting Business Development
Oracle Enterprise Performance Management & Business Intelligence Summit – Roma, 11 marzo 2008
 Agenda

Introduction to RTD
Decision process
Example and Use Case
Architecture and Approach
Q&A

Oracle Enterprise Performance Management & Business Intelligence Summit 2

 Oracle RTD – Transforming Insight

Empower Users
• Provide proactive, real time insight
and action at the moment of
customer interaction through a
flexible real time decision engine

Enable Business Responsiveness

• Enable the business to respond to
ongoing business process changes
and to directly improve the customer
experience

Ensure Value
• Provide choice by supporting multiple
deployment options and ease of
integration at the lowest cost

Oracle Enterprise Performance Management & Business Intelligence Summit 3

 Real-Time Insight-Driven Enterprise
Intelligent
Interaction
“What should I do now,
at the moment of contact”
Insight Driven
Action

“What is my best opportunity?”

“What should I do next?”
Performance
Increasing Value

Management
“How am I doing
vs. goals?”
Query,
OLAP / DW
“Explore my data”

Transactional
Reporting
“Here are your reports” Generational Steps

Oracle Enterprise Performance Management & Business Intelligence Summit 4

 RTD Extends the Business Intelligence Foundation

EPM Workspace

Performance Management
Applications BIBIApplications
Applications
RTD

Business Intelligence Foundation RTD

Fusion Middleware

OLTP & ODS Data Warehouse OLAP SAP, Oracle, Siebel, Excel Business
Systems Data Mart PeopleSoft, Custom XML Process

Oracle Enterprise Performance Management & Business Intelligence Summit 5

 Extending the Business Intelligence
Foundation
RTD Enables Adaptive Business Processes
Business Processes Process learns and continuously optimizes in
real-time based on closed loop information
Analytic decisions are taken for each
interaction
Process data Process decision
& context point & feedback

RTD decisions based on rules and predictive

Oracle RTD Server
models
Real-time Business Rules & RTD optimizes across conflicting business
Self-Learning Predictive Models
process goals

Inputs

Process leverages common data model of

real-time and historical data
Decisions based on facts, context, analytic
Enterprise Information Model
insights

Oracle Enterprise Performance Management & Business Intelligence Summit 6

 Processo di gestione del contatto
Gestione Contatto Cliente
As is

Process Analysis Process Improvement

z Analisi off-line z Ritardo nell’implementazione

dei cambiamenti
z Analisi basata su dati “non freschi”
z Time to market critico
z Difficoltoso da far evolvere nel
tempo
Ritardo temporale significativo tra analisi del fenomeno e
verifica / ri-parametrizzazione del processo

Oracle Enterprise Performance Management & Business Intelligence Summit 7

 RTD: l’approccio
Operando “a bordo” del processo …
Today’s Systems

Calculation Engine

Process Analysis Process Improvement

z Analisi Real time z “Closed loop” tra il processo
z Monitoraggio continuo decisionale e l’analisi
z Interfacciamento con le altre z Auto adattamento in base
applicazioni al contesto
z Sfrutta in larga misura le z Guidato dagli obiettivi di business
applicazioni esistenti

Il gap tra processo analitico e decisionale è pressoché annullato

Oracle Enterprise Performance Management & Business Intelligence Summit 8

 RTD: un nuovo approccio

From Process Time-line

S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S5 S6 S7 S8 S9 S10 S12 S13 S14

Data Analisi Adeguamento Applicazione Nuove Regole

collection Definizi Sistema con nuove
one Regole
regole

To Process Time-line
S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S5 S6 S7 S8 S9 S10 S12 S13 S14

Analisi, Adeguamento Regole, Applicazione Regole

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 Agenda

Introduction to RTD
Decision process
Example and Use Case
Architecture and Approach
Q&A

Oracle Enterprise Performance Management & Business Intelligence Summit 10

 User Interfaces for Designing ‘Decision Logic’

Web UI: Decision Center Developer interface: Studio

• Utilizzato dai business analysts per monitorare / • Utilizzato dall’IT per il setup dell’ambiente
definire la logica di business
• Applicazione Client
• Applicazione web
• Definzione Data Sources, Models,
• Analisi dei dati tramite reportistica Attributes, Objects

Oracle Enterprise Performance Management & Business Intelligence Summit 11

 RTD Decisions
Managing Competing Business Goals

• User defined business goals

• Weighted business priorities can
change over time
• Balance between competing
alternatives
• Customer retention
• Revenue
• Maximize Response Rate
• Cross selling upselling
• Minimize Handle Times
• Minimize Churn Risk
• Minimize Service Cost

RTD
RTDdecision
decisionstrikes
strikesan
anoptimal
optimalbalance
balanceacross
acrosscompeting
competingbusiness
businessgoals
goals

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 RTD Decisions
Taking Into Account Real Time Context

•Combining both historical and real

time information
• Historical
• Demographic profile
• Billings
•Account transaction
• Assets
• Real time
• Call reason and customer
purpose
•Agent skill level
• Time of day
• Other information provided
during interaction

RTD
RTDdecision
decisionuses
usesreal
realtime
timecontext
contextto
toincrease
increasebusiness
businessvalue
value

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 RTD Decisions
The Best of Rules and Predictive Models

• Business Rules
• Filtering rules
• Segmentation rules
• Eligibility conditions
• Scoring Rules

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 RTD Decisions
Support for a Variety of Decisions
• Rule Driven Decisions
• When decisions are driven by declarative logic expressed by business users
• Model Driven Decisions
• When decisions are driven by logic learned by models from empirical data

Rules Approach: Control Predictive Approach: Automation

• Universal way by which business users

express requirements • Prediction inferred from data vs.
• Existing knowledge and logic can be
leveraged
explicitly defined
• Convenient when decision needs to be • Predictions [automatically] evolve
constrained
• Does not scale with volume / interaction based on response patterns
complexity
•
Predictions adjusts to changes in
business patterns
RTD
RTDprovides
providesvery
verygranular controlover
granularcontrol over• the
thedegree
degree to
towhich
which rules
rulesand
andanalytics
analytics
can be used to drive the Requiresprocess.
decision a lot of data
can be used to drive the decision process.

Oracle Enterprise Performance Management & Business Intelligence Summit 15

 Decomposing The Decision Process

The Decision Process Consists Of Eight Steps

Eligibility Customer Choice

Advisor Choices Choice
of Choices Segment Scores
calls Decision Scored Returned
Determined Determined Weighted

Oracle Enterprise Performance Management & Business Intelligence Summit 16

 Advice & Decision
System
Advisor
asks for
calls Decision
Advice

• A request for Advice initiates a Decision process

• The Decision selects one or more Choices
• Choices are selected based on meeting defined Performance Goals
• Choices are an inventory of alternatives we have to present

Performance
Decision goals

Choices

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 Eligibility
System Eligibility
Advisor
asks for of Choices
calls Decision
Advice Determined

• Choices can have rules

• Eligibility logic can be defined at the choice or choice group level
• Filtering Rules provide reusable boolean logic across decisions and
choices
• Restrict offer if customer already has the product
• Restrict message based on customer age
• Define segmentation

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 Scoring

System Eligibility
Advisor Choices
asks for of Choices
calls Decision Scored
Advice Determined

• All Eligible Choices are scored for each performance goal

• RTD offers a variety of scoring method ranging from
• Fully automated scoring methods
• Scores computed using self learning model capabilities
• Fully deterministic scoring methods
• Scores computed using function or business defined rules.

Profile A Raw revenue score Raw customer retention score

Choice 1 0.1 0.608
Choice 3 0.15 0.5
Choice 4 0.3 0.2

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 Scoring & Weighting

System Eligibility Customer Choice

Advisor Choices
asks for of Choices Segment Scores
calls Decision Scored
Advice Determined Determined Weighted

• Based on segment different weights are applied to scores

Profile B Rev raw Rev wt Rev tot Ret raw Ret wt Ret tot Total
Choice 2 0.3 30% 0.090 0.4 70% 0.28 0.370
Choice 3 0.9 30% 0.270 0.74 70% 0.518 0.788 winner
Choice 5 0.1 30% 0.030 0.62 70% 0.434 0.464

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 Decision Results

System Eligibility Customer Choice

Advisor Choices Choice
asks for of Choices Segment Scores
calls Decision Scored Returned
Advice Determined Determined Weighted

• One or more Choices are returned to the requesting application based on Total Score
• Choice Name(s) and additional optional parameters are passed back to requesting
application
• Requesting application will display choices or process information accordingly

Returned
parameters
Winning choice

Oracle Enterprise Performance Management & Business Intelligence Summit 21

 Closing the Loop

Eligibility Customer Choice

Advisor Choices Choice
of Choices Segment Scores
calls Decision Scored Returned
Determined Determined Weighted

• Client application
feeds back via
‘informant’ occurrence
of ‘event’ related to a
‘choice’
• ‘Events’ are
associated with
‘Models’
• Models are
automatically updated
when events are
received
• Loops can be closed
real time or differed
Oracle Enterprise Performance Management & Business Intelligence Summit 22
 Agenda

Introduction to RTD
Decision process
Example and Use Case
Architecture and Approach
Q&A

Oracle Enterprise Performance Management & Business Intelligence Summit 23

 Introducing Robert Knowles – VP
Engineering
• Demographics: Seg5-HP
• 43 year old Senior Manager
• Married with 3 children
• Own home with low mortgage
• Customer for 20 years
• Usage Profile
• Current (checking) account
• Regular ISA savings plan
• Ad hoc investments
• High Value
• Gold Segment
• Assets
Robert Knowles • Check Book
• Debit and Platinum Cards
• Some stocks and bonds
• Call Purpose
• Query recent account fees

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 Robert
RobertKnowles
Knowlesisisrecognized
recognizedasasan
an
exec VP living in San Francisco.
exec VP living in San Francisco.

……based
basedononRobert’s
Robert’scustomer
customerandandusage
usageprofile,
profile,
RTD
RTDpredicts
predictsthat
thathe
hecurrently
currentlydoes
doesnot
nothave
havean
an
unusually
unusuallyhigh
highrisk
riskofofchurning,
churning,and
andtherefore
thereforeno
no
retention treatment is warranted, and
retention treatment is warranted, and … …

……that
thatthe
the“Gold
“GoldInvestor
InvestorService”
Service”isisthe
themarketing
marketing
offer
offerthat
thatisismost
mostappropriate
appropriateforforRobert.
Robert.

Oracle Enterprise Performance Management & Business Intelligence Summit 25

 Robert
Robertisiscalling
callingtotoquery
querythe
therecent
recentfeesfeeson
onhis
hisPlatinum
Platinum
credit card account. The agent enters
credit card account. The agent enters this new this new
information
informationininreal
realtime.
time.

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 RTD
RTDpredicts
predictsininreal
realtime
timethat
thatRobert’s
Robert’schurn
churnrisk
riskhas
has
increased
increasedtoto‘danger’
‘danger’level
leveland
andthat
thatan
anappropriate
appropriate
retention
retention offer needs to be made right nowininorder
offer needs to be made right now ordertoto
retain
retainRobert’s
Robert’shigh
highvalue
valuebusiness.
business. Hence
Hencethetheagent
agent
isisempowered to upgrade Robert to a
empowered to upgrade Robert to a ‘No Fee ‘No Fee
Banking’
Banking’plan.
plan.

Oracle Enterprise Performance Management & Business Intelligence Summit 27

 Robert’s
Robert’sresponse
responseisisregistered
registeredbybythetheagent.
agent.The
The
response
response information is recorded in Siebel ANDisis
information is recorded in Siebel AND
communicated
communicatedtotothe
theRTD
RTDininreal
realtime
timefor
forself-learning.
self-learning.

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 BT use case: project context
Why Focus On Inbound vs. Outbound ?

• We can control our active communications to our

customers
• The bigger challenge is controlling our reactive
customer communications, particularly in the call
centres
• We need to optimise the customer initiated
interactions to maximise the value to both customers
and ourselves

Oracle Enterprise Performance Management & Business Intelligence Summit 29

 BT use case: project context
Why RTD ?

Requirements:
• Straight forward integration to existing call handling process
• Exploitation of EDW and data residing in other data sources
• Ability to adapt to rapidly changing information and contextual
information provided during the call
• Centralised decisioning capability that can be used across
multiple contact points

Oracle Enterprise Performance Management & Business Intelligence Summit 30

 BT use case: results
Operational:
• BB conversion rates ↑
• Improved customer experience ↑
• Improved agent satisfaction ↑
Marketing:
• “Decision Centre” tool provides a real-time view into
RTD message performance:
• Real-Time feedback of message usage and performance
• Dashboards providing insights on attributes that influence
message acceptance
• Examples of insight gained:
• The proportion of customers purchasing Broadband having
had an interaction within the previous 24 hours has increased
22% (Dec 06)Î27% (Jan 07)Î 30% (Feb 07)

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 Agenda

Introduction to RTD
Decision process
Example and Use Case
Architecture and Approach
Q&A

Oracle Enterprise Performance Management & Business Intelligence Summit 32

 RTD Platform and Integration Points
• Informants & Advisors
• Handle information events Enterprise Apps Portals,
and requests for decisions Customer Touch-points, … PDAs, …
from enterprise applications

Informants Advisors Publishers

• Publishers
• Deliver KPIs, alerts,
learnings, and other Goal Manager
information to portals & Decision Business
external apps Server Decision Engines & IT User
Interface
Learning Engines
• Suppliers Inline
Service Profile Manager
• Deliver profile data on
demand

Suppliers
• User Interfaces
• Analyze data, create offers,
configure system
Transaction Contact CRM Contact
Data Data System Data

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 Technical Architecture

• RTD is a J2EE application

• It runs on top of a J2EE Application Server

• J2EE application servers provide services required to deploy

large scalable enterprise applications such as Clustering, Fail-
over, Load Balancing, Distributed Deployment

• Integration is based on Service Oriented Architectures

• RTD Applications (Inline Services) are compiled

into executable Java code

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 Target scenarios

• Large customer base

• Sell a variety of product/services
• Call center or web site
• Need to make a variety of decisions based of several
business goals. Example:
• Who to best dispatch to a service call
• Which partner to select for an opportunity
• What messages to present in a web session
• How to better manage call center operations
• Is this customer a risk

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 Market

• Financial services
• Telco
• Media
…and more
• Transportation
• Retail
• Healthcare
• …..
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 RTD Drives Top & Bottom Line Benefits
Sales
• Incremental revenues through improved cross
and
up selling
• Improved long-term profitability through enhanced
loyalty

Marketing • Improved customer satisfaction through better

targeting of messages and products
• Reduced outbound marketing spend through more
effective inbound marketing and leverage of
insights into actual customer response behavior
for outbound
Service/Operations
• Reduced operating costs through more intelligent
and streamlined business processes
• Improved agent productivity by enabling less
experienced and skilled users
• Improve operational targeting of issues
Oracle Enterprise Performance Management & Business Intelligence Summit 37
 Implementation Approach
Multi-phased approach

•Single channel integration •Single channel decisioning •Multiple channel decisioning

Channels

•Multiple channel learning

•Limited Decisions •RTD-enabled decisions •RTD-enabled decisions

Decisioning

•Limited Performance Goals •Limited Performance Goals •Cross channel optimization

•Closed-loop response •Single channel •Multiple Performance Goals
tracking

•RTD analysis •Real-time analytics •Real-time analytics

Analytics

•Batch Analysis •Self-adapting models •Combined with offline DM

Process-centric analysis •Interaction-centric •Combined with static rules
predictions

Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3

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