January 2019

Coffee Can PMS

PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL. NOT FOR CIRCULATION

 View on broader stock market - Reversal of macro & micro
Positive

Earnings Oriented factors

Liquidity Oriented (P/E

From physical PSU Bank recap

Low
Expansion)

to financial
Inflation assets GST gains
Increasing
Benign Interest CAD & Fiscal capex
Rate under control Capacity
utilization up
Stable
Falling crude Rural revival
currency

Last 3 Next 3
years years
Rising
Earnings Oriented factors

Liquidity Oriented (P/E

Inflation
NPA plague GST CAD & Fiscal
slippage

Compression)
Rising
Capacity under Interest Rate
Low capex Surge in
utilization crude
Liquidity
Weak monsoons drying up
Demon
(2014-16)

Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd. Negative PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL. NOT FOR CIRCULATION 2
Ambit’s Coffee Can Philosophy
Earnings growth is the biggest driver of share prices…
4,500
4,000
Sensex Index Sensex EPS

3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
-
Jan-91

Jan-92

Jan-93

Jan-94

Jan-95

Jan-96

Jan-97

Jan-98

Jan-99

Jan-00

Jan-01

Jan-02

Jan-03

Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
Source: BSE , Bloomberg Ambit Capital
Sensex Price and EPS are based to 100 on Jan 1991

Period Share price (Rs) Mkt Cap (Rs cr) Trailing EPS Trailing P/E (x)
Apr-08 489 545 21 23

Apr-18 24,030 26,827 296 81

CAGR 48% 48% 31% 12%

Source: Bloomberg, Company, Ambit Capital

Earnings contributed to ~80% of the share price growth

Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd. PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL. NOT FOR CIRCULATION 4
…however disruptions de-rail earnings trajectories

External disruptions

GST Ecommerce Demonetisation RERA

Payment Corporate Electric Donald

banks Bond Mkt Vehicles Trump!

Internal disruptions

Promoter’s Management Lack of professional

succession changes empowerment

Complexities of scale – Capital

poor systems / processes misallocation

Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd. PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL. NOT FOR CIRCULATION 5
Answering two obvious questions

“Which company’s stock should I buy?” “For how long should I hold this stock?”

Type 1: Type 2:
Volatile earnings Type 2: Type 1: Forever (as long
(could be due to Consistent as its competitive
Time it well
external or earnings strengths
internal factors) sustain)

4,091
4,500 Larsen & Toubro (Rebased to 100)
4,000
Asian Paints (rebased to 100)
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000 1,574
1,500
1,000
500
0
January-04
July-04
January-05
July-05
January-06
July-06
January-07
July-07
January-08
July-08
January-09
July-09
January-10
July-10
January-11
July-11
January-12
July-12
January-13
July-13
January-14
July-14
January-15
July-15
January-16
July-16
January-17
July-17
January-18
July-18
January-19
Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd. Source: Bloomberg, Company, Ambit Capital PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL. NOT FOR CIRCULATION 6
Coffee Can Philosophy’s answer to the two obvious questions

What type of stocks should I buy?

O
O Healthy V Long periods
Consistency F Fundamentals E of time
R

Two historical filters which RoCE>15% & revenue growth >10% YoY
define our coverage universe for 90% of the last 10-20 yrs period

For how long should I hold this stock?

FOREVER (avg holding

period of >10 years

Don’t time entry / exit Minimise trading costs

Benefit from the power of

compounding
Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd. PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL. NOT FOR CIRCULATION 7
Coffee Can Philosophy seeks a unique DNA in companies

Evolving
Talent competitive Focus on
moats core
business
IT =
backbone DNA to deliver
consistent Truly
growth decade Independent
Professional after decade
empowerment Board

50% 16%
45% 14%
Asian Paints = Consistency over seven decades
40%
12%
35%
30% 10%
25% 8%
20% 6%
15%
4%
10%
5% 2%
0% 0%
1962 1972 1982 1995 2002 2012

Revenue (CAGR for Prev. 10 years) PBT/Capital Employed (LHS) PBT Margin (RHS)
Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd. Source: Bloomberg, Company, Ambit Capital PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL. NOT FOR CIRCULATION 8
 Back-tested returns of Coffee Can Portfolio (CCP)
Coffee Can Portfolio (CCP) - Portfolio invested for 10 years using two historical filters of RoCE>15% and revenue
growth >10% in each year during the previous decade

Back-testing results of the 18 iterations of the CCP (vs Sensex index) using total shareholder returns

Kick-off No. of Stocks CCP Start CCP End CCP Sensex Outperformance
Year # Date Value Date Value CAGR CAGR Relative to Sensex
2000 5 01/07/2000 500 30/06/2010 3,831 22.6% 16.0% 6.6%

2001 6 01/07/2001 600 30/06/2011 9,802 32.2% 20.5% 11.7%

2002 8 01/07/2002 800 30/06/2012 7,631 25.3% 20.2% 5.1%

2003 9 01/07/2003 900 30/06/2013 10,117 27.4% 20.2% 7.2%

2004 10 01/07/2004 1,000 30/06/2014 16,880 32.7% 19.7% 12.9%

2005 9 01/07/2005 900 30/06/2015 6,659 22.2% 16.1% 6.0%

2006 10 01/07/2006 1,000 30/06/2016 6,376 20.4% 11.4% 9.0%

2007 15 01/07/2007 1,500 30/06/2017 9,030 19.7% 9.3% 10.3%

2008 11 01/07/2008 1,100 30/06/2018 7,770 21.6% 12.2% 9.4%

2009 11 01/07/2009 1,100 30/06/2018 6,065 20.9% 12.0% 8.9%

2010 7 01/07/2010 700 30/06/2018 2,940 19.6% 10.8% 8.8%

2011 14 01/07/2011 1,400 30/06/2018 3,498 14.0% 11.1% 2.8%

2012 22 01/07/2012 2,200 30/06/2018 6,368 19.4% 14.2% 5.2%

2013 18 01/07/2013 1,800 30/06/2018 7,153 31.8% 14.2% 17.6%

2014 17 01/07/2014 1,700 30/06/2018 4,148 25.0% 10.1% 14.9%

2015 20 01/07/2015 2,000 30/06/2018 3,115 15.9% 9.6% 6.3%

2016 17 01/07/2016 1,700 30/06/2018 2,245 14.9% 15.6% -0.7%

2017
Source: 12Capital research.
Bloomberg, Ambit 01/07/2017 1,200
Note: Portfolio at start denotes an30/06/2018
equal allocation of Rs100 for the stocks28.3%
1,539 qualifying to be16.0% 12.3%
in the CCP for that year.

Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd. Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research. Note: Portfolio at start denotes an PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL. NOT FOR CIRCULATION 9
equal allocation of Rs100 for the stocks in the CCP for that year.
 Coffee Can Portfolio (CCP) vs Sensex (1 Yr Holding Period)
CCP Outperformance CCP Return SENSEX Return

140%

90%
1 Yr Return (%)

40%
Jul-00
Dec-00
May-01
Oct-01
Mar-02
Aug-02
Jan-03
Jun-03
Nov-03
Apr-04
Sep-04
Feb-05
Jul-05
Dec-05
May-06
Oct-06
Mar-07
Aug-07
Jan-08
Jun-08
Nov-08
Apr-09
Sep-09
Feb-10
Jul-10
Dec-10
May-11
Oct-11
Mar-12
Aug-12
Jan-13
Jun-13
Nov-13
Apr-14
Sep-14
Feb-15
Jul-15
Dec-15
May-16
Oct-16
Mar-17
Aug-17
-10%

-60%
Start Date of 1 Yr Period

CCP return is taken as average of all live Coffee Can portfolios for the period
Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd. PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL. NOT FOR CIRCULATION 10
CCP: Capital protection for 3 yrs or longer holding period

95% Confidence Interval

Shareholder returns for 95% confidence interval

120%

100%

80%

60%
(CAGR %)

40%
28%
24% 24% 24% 24%
20%

0%

-20%

-40%

-60%
1 Year 3 Year 5 Year 7 Year 10 Year
Upper Bound of 95% 96% 49% 38% 36% 33%
Median 21% 23% 23% 23% 24%
Mean 28% 24% 24% 24% 24%
Lower Bound of 95% -41% 0% 10% 11% 15%

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital

Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd. PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL. NOT FOR CIRCULATION 11
 Risk-Return profile – CCP vs Sensex vs Govt. Bond
40%
Worst quadrant – high 1 Year Red = Sensex
risk and low return
35% Green = Coffee Can
1 Year Blue = 10 yr Govt bond
30% Bubble size = Holding
period
Standard Deviation %

25%

20%
Best quadrant – low risk
and high return
15% 3 Year
5 Year 3 Year
5 Year
10%

7 Year 7 Year
5% 10 Year Quality
1 Year 10 Year
Premium
0%
7% 10% 13% 16% 19% 22% 25% 28%

-5%
Return % (CAGR)
Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd. PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL. NOT FOR CIRCULATION 12
 Coffee Can Stocks’ resilience vs Sensex
Sensex Stock 1 (HDFC Bank)
NEGATIVE RETURNS POSITIVE RETURNS NEGATIVE RETURNS POSITIVE RETURNS
FY98 FY97
FY05
FY98 Sensex
FY00
FY07
FY04 returns
FY08 FY94 FY05 evenly
FY97 FY11 FY00 FY06
FY08
spread
FY95 FY99 FY14 FY04
FY10
FY93 FY03 FY02 FY96 FY17 FY06
FY07 FY15
FY09 FY01 FY12 FY16 FY13 FY18 FY15 FY10
FY99 FY02 FY12 FY11 FY17
Less +20% More FY09 FY01 FY03 FY16 FY14 FY13 FY18
-20% to -10% to 0% to 0% to +10% to
than
-30% -20% -10% +10% +20%
to than
<< -20% to -10% to 0% to 0% to +10% to +20% to >> RHS
-30% +30% +30%
-30% -30% -20% -10% +10% +20% +30% +30% skew of
Stock 2 (Berger Paints) Stock 3 (Asian Paints)
NEGATIVE RETURNS POSITIVE RETURNS
CCP
NEGATIVE RETURNS POSITIVE RETURNS
FY94 histo-
FY94
FY95 grams
FY98 FY00
FY99 FY02
FY00
FY04 FY04
FY05 FY95 FY06
FY06 More
FY93 FY96 FY05 FY08
FY10
FY03 FY98 FY11 FY10
greens
FY11
FY93 FY03 FY12 FY13 FY97 FY16 FY07 FY12 FY13
than
FY96 FY01 FY08 FY97 FY14 FY15
FY09 FY99 FY01 FY18 FY14 FY17 FY15
reds
FY07 FY02 FY09 FY18 FY16 FY17
<< -20% to -10% to 0% to 0% to +10% to +20% to >> << -20% to -10% to 0% to 0% to +10% to +20% to >>
-30% -30% -20% -10% +10% +20% +30% +30% -30% -30% -20% -10% +10% +20% +30% +30%

Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd. Stock delivered positive returns while Sensex was negative PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL. NOT FOR CIRCULATION 13
Stock delivered negative returns while Sensex was positive
 Fundamentals drive share prices up EVEN IF P/E de-rates
• From 1994 to 2004, Indian equities underwent meaningful P/E de-rating
• Asian Paints outperformed Sensex by 800 bps of CAGR returns on back of spectacular fundamentals
600
Asian Retained Earnings % Share Price
1994-2004 Sensex 70%
Pre-Tax ROCE %
Paints 500 P/E
60% EPS
Share Price CAGR 12% 4% 400
50%
300
EPS CAGR 19% 14%
40%
200
Starting PE (1994) 38x 47x 30% 100
Ending PE (2004) 20x 19x 20% -

1994
1995
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004

1994
1995
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
PE CAGR -6% -9%

• From 1983 to 1996, Walmart underwent significant P/E de-rating while US markets’ P/E went up
• Yet, Walmart outperformed market by 700bps of CAGR returns owing to healthy EPS growth
3500
85% PE Ratio
1983-1996 Walmart S&P500
75% 3000 Share Price
Share Price CAGR 19% 12% 65% 2500 EPS
Retained Earnings %
55% 2000
Pre-Tax ROCE %
EPS CAGR 30% 9% 45%
1500
35%
Starting PE (1983) 56x 12x 1000
25%
15% 500
Ending PE (1996) 17x 19x 5% 0
1983
1986
1988
1991
1993
1996
1998
2001
2003
2006
2008
2011
2013
2016

1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
PE CAGR -9% 3%

Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd. Source: Bloomberg, Company, Ambit Capital PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL. NOT FOR CIRCULATION 14
CCP’s Performance during stressed markets

• CCP delivers outstanding outperformance during market crash

• CCP delivers healthy absolute returns pre-crash, despite underperforming mid-caps
CC 2000 (2007-2009) CC 2000 (2010-2012)
180 130
160 120
140
110
120
CC 2000
100 CC 2000 100
Nifty
80 Nifty
90 NSEMCAP 50
NSEMCAP 50
60
40 80
20 70
05/07/2007 05/07/2008 05/07/2009 01/07/2010 01/07/2011 01/07/2012

CC 2001 (2007-2009) CC 2001 (2010-2012)

230 150
200 140

170 130
120
140 CC 2001 CC 2001
Nifty
110 Nifty
110
NSEMCAP 50 100 NSEMCAP 50
80 90
50 80
20 70
05/07/2007 05/07/2008 05/07/2009 01/07/2010 01/07/2011 01/07/2012

Source: MFI Explorer, Ambit Capital

Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd. PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL. NOT FOR CIRCULATION 15
 Longevity of ROCE vs current valuations

X% ROCE for next 20 yrs Cash Flow Reinvestment 2038 Exit P/E = 20x

Entry P/E to Outperform Sensex?

Starting P/E multiple in 2018 for a stock to deliver market average returns of 11% CAGR over the next 20
years assuming that the P/E multiple moderates gradually to 20x by 2038

Reinv.
Capital 20 Year
Year Earnings ROCE of P/E
Employed CAGR
Earnings

0 100 250 40% 70% 50

1 128 320 40% 70% 49

2 164 410 40% 70% 47

19 10,889 27,223 40% 70% 22

20 13,938 34,845 40% 70% 20 22.8%

Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd. PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL. NOT FOR CIRCULATION 16
 Ambit’s Coffee PMS
The investment approach, performance, and fee structure
Our investment approach

Coverage universe = ~30 stocks with 10-20 years of historical track record of
consistency (for at least 90% of the 10-20 years historical period)

Consistently > 10% YoY revenue growth Consistently > 15% ROCE

Our competitive advantage = Deep understanding of organizational DNA

Will the firm sustain CONSISTENCY of growth in future (more than a decade)?

Marry valuations with longevity

Portfolio composition = Concentrated portfolio of 10-15 stocks

Monitor earnings potential of companies in portfolio

Churn (if required) = <1 stock per year on average

Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd. PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL. NOT FOR CIRCULATION 18
 We like cash generative consistent plays

Prefer structural plays over cyclicals

• We CANNOT time commodity cycles
• We CANNOT time government capital expenditure cycles
• We CANNOT forecast macro-economics
• We UNDERSTAND micro-economics
• We UNDERSTAND Company Specific Growth Drivers

Avoid companies which ‘NEED’ leverage to grow

• Leverage is beneficial only if it improves capital efficiency
• Unlevered returns are a better measure of financial performance
• Changes to supply of credit in the economy can adversely affect ROCEs

Don’t fear concentration

• ‘Wide diversification is required when investors do not understand what they are doing’
• We prefer10-15 stock portfolio given conviction on our deep dive research on selected stocks

Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd. PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL. NOT FOR CIRCULATION 19
Ambit’s Coffee Can Performance – PMS (as on 31st Dec’18)
25% 23.7%
Coffee Can PMS Nifty 50

20%

16.2%
15% 14.5%

11.1%
10%
7.4%

5% 4.2%
3.2%
1.5% 1.4%
0.3%
0%
-0.1%
-0.6%

-5%
1 Month 3 Months 6 Months 9 Months 12 Months CAGR since
inception
*Inception Date = 06-Mar-17; All returns are net of fees and expenses .
**Returns for 1-Month,3-Months,6-Months, 9-Months & 12-Months are absolute returns

Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd. PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL. NOT FOR CIRCULATION 20
Ambit’s Coffee Can Performance - Institutional (from July’14)
Annual Return*
Start Date CC Portfolio Return % Sensex TSR ** %
Jul-14 32.7% 10.5%
Jul-15 12.2% -2.1%
Jul-16 24.3% 15.3%
Jul-17 18.7% 16.0%
CAGR since inception*** 19.9% 9.7%

*Annual returns are from 1st Jul’14 – 30th Jun’15, 1st Jul’15 – 30th Jun’16, 1st Jul’16 – 30th Jun’17 & 1st Jul’17 – 30th Jun’18
** TSR = Total Shareholder Return which assumes that dividends received are reinvested
***Return from 1st Jul’14 to 30th Nov’18

260
240 Institutional Coffee Can Portfolio Sensex TSR

220
200
Based to 100

180
160
140
120
100
80
Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18
Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18
Coffee Can Instititutional Return
Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd. PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL. NOT FOR CIRCULATION 21
Fee Structure

1% p.a. Charged Quarterly on Average

Fixed
Daily AUM.
20% of excess profits above a
Option 1 Variable/Profit Share hurdle rate of 13%
(High watermark applicable)
Exit Load NIL

2% p.a. Charged Quarterly on Average

Fixed
Daily AUM

Option 2 Variable/Profit Share NIL

Exit Load NIL

Fixed NIL

20% of excess profits above a

Option 3 Variable/Profit Share hurdle rate of 8%
(High watermark applicable)
Exit Load NIL

Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd. PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL. NOT FOR CIRCULATION
Appendix
India’s Rising Share in World GDP (PPP % of World GDP)

1950 1980 2000 2017 2022E

Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd. PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL. NOT FOR CIRCULATION 24
 India’s demographic dividend
100%
9%
90% 19%

80% 19%
51%
70%
27%
Strugglers
60%
35% Next Billion
50%
Aspirers
40% 30% Affluent
30%
30% Elite
19%
20%
14%
10% 14%
9% 18%
10%
0% 4%
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Historical data: BCG - Tiger Roars 2012; Projection: Ambit Capital Source: United Nations World Population Prospects, Haver as of 2012

• India’s rising middle class population will boost entry-level discretionary spending
• Similarly, growing working class population will boost economic activity - demand / spending and
supply

Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd. PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL. NOT FOR CIRCULATION 25
Alpha of Large Cap Equity Mutual Funds is diminishing

Large Cap MFs : Pre 2010 (Jan’91 to Dec’09) Large Cap MFs : Post 2010 (Jan’10 to Feb’17)

Rolling One Rolling Ten Rolling One Rolling Ten

year year year year
Equity BSE Equity BSE Equity BSE Equity BSE
MFs 100 MFs 100 MFs 100 MFs 100

Avg. Returns Avg. Returns

21.8 15.3 17.4 13.3 16.6 13.4 15.8 15.8
(%) (%)

Std. Dev. (%) 46 37 7 5 Std. Dev. (%) 23 23 3 4

Inconsistency Amongst Top-Performing Funds

250
Bottom two quartiles Top Quartile
• Alphaof MFs for 1-year-rolling has shrunk
200 36 from 6.5% (pre 2010) to 3.2% (post 2010)
Number of funds

31 Remain in top
150 Remain in top
quartile (36%)
quartile (35%) • Alphaof MFs for 10-year-rolling has shrunk
109
100
95 Mean revert from 4.1% (pre 2010) to 0% (post 2010)
22 Mean revert (42%)
(45%)
50 22 •Half of the top performing mutual funds
62 72
45 mean revert every 3 years
0
2007-2009 2010-2013 2014-2016

Source: MFI Explorer, Ambit Capital

Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd. PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL. NOT FOR CIRCULATION 26
 Disclaimer
• Ambit Capital Private Limited (“Ambit”) is a registered Portfolio Manager with Securities and Exchange Board of India.

• This presentation / newsletter / report is strictly for information and illustrative purposes only and should not be considered to be an offer,
or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any securities or to enter into any Portfolio Management agreements. This presentation / newsletter
/ report is prepared by Ambit strictly for the specified audience and is not intended for distribution to public and is not to be disseminated or
circulated to any other party outside of the intended purpose. This presentation / newsletter / report may contain confidential or proprietary
information and no part of this presentation / newsletter / report may be reproduced in any form without its prior written consent to Ambit.
If you receive a copy of this presentation / newsletter / report and you are not the intended recipient, you should destroy this immediately.
Any dissemination, copying or circulation of this communication in any form is strictly prohibited.

• Neither Ambit nor any of their respective affiliates or representatives make any express or implied representation or warranty as to the
adequacy or accuracy of the statistical data or factual statement concerning India or its economy or make any representation as to the
accuracy, completeness, reasonableness or sufficiency of any of the information contained in the presentation / newsletter / report herein,
or in the case of projections, as to their attainability or the accuracy or completeness of the assumptions from which they are derived, and it
is expected each prospective investor will pursue its own independent due diligence. In preparing this presentation / newsletter / report,
Ambit has relied upon and assumed, without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of information available from public
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• You are expected to take into consideration all the risk factors including financial conditions, Risk-Return profile, tax consequences, etc. You
understand that the past performance or name of the portfolio or any similar product do not in any manner indicate surety of performance
of such product or portfolio. You further understand that all such products are subject to various Market Risks, Settlement Risks, Economical
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agreements and understand in detail the Risk-Return profile of any security or product of Ambit or any other service provider before making
any investment. You should also take professional / legal /tax advice before making any decision of investing or disinvesting. Ambit or
Ambit associates may have financial or other business interests that may adversely affect the objectivity of the views contained in this
presentation / newsletter / report.

• Ambit does not guarantee the future performance or any level of performance relating to any products of Ambit or any other third party
service provider. Investment in any product including mutual fund or in the product of third party service provider does not provide any
assurance or guarantee that the objectives of the product are specifically achieved. Ambit shall not be liable to client for any losses that you
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received from Ambit on any product. Further Ambit shall not be liable for any loss which may have arisen by wrong or misleading
instructions given by you whether orally or in writing.

Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd. PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL. NOT FOR CIRCULATION 27
Thank You