3Scenariosfor

theCovid-1
9
pandemicin
2021
Howt oplanthef
utur
eof
yourcompanywhent he
quarant
ineends?

Prof
.Ri
car
doBrit
to,Ph.D
Doct
ori
nBusi
nessManagement
DeanofI
BSAmer i
cas
I
ntr
oduct
ion 1
Oneoft hemai nresponsibi
li
tiesofamanageri stoplancompany’ s
medi um t olong-t
erm act
ions .I
t’
sneces sar
ytohav eav i
si
onabout
thefuture, taki
ngdecisi
onst hatwi l
lconductthecompanyt hrougha
succes sfulpathwhenf ut
urear riv
es.In‘cor
onav i
rusti
mes,
’
uncer t
aintiesaboutthefuturear estrongl
yaffect i
ngtheexecuti
ves’
planningcapaci ty
.Howl ongwi l
lthepandemi clast?Whenwi l
litbe
pos s
iblet os us
pends oci
alisolati
onandr e-opencompani esand
count r
ybor der
s?Whatwi l
lbet heeconomi cimpactofthese
meas ures ?

Acommoner rormanager smak e,duet otheuncer tai

nty,isnott hink
aboutthef utureandpl anahead, f
orthemedi um andl ong- t
erm. The
phrase“ Idon’tk nowhowt hefut urewillbe,soi tdoesn’tmak es ense
toplananyt hingr ightnow” ,isacommonex pres s
ionoft hiserror. I
n
fact
,noonek nowst hefut
ur e.Ev eninmoment sofr el
ativestability
,
andev enl essdur ingcrisi
s. Butt hi
sshoul dn’tstopamanagerf rom
tryi
ngtor eachanunder st
andi ngoft hecompany’ sfutureandpl an
accordingly.Ther ear eseveraltoolstos uppor texecutivesont hes e
contexts-t he“ Scenar i
osT echnique”i sthemos ttradit
ionaloft hem.

Thise- bookev aluatess tudiesbyHeal t

handEconomi css pecialist
s ,
gov ernment alpl
ans , st
atisticalproject i
ons ,andot hert echniques .
Bas edont hes edocument s, we’vedev elopedas etofs cenar i
ost hat
canhel pmanager sf rom di fferents ect orsthinkaboutt hef ut
ur e,and
dev elopt heirownt hought saboutt hel engthoft hecr isi
sandi ts
i
mpactont heircompani es ,theireconomi cs ector,andonpr oduct ive
activityingener al.Youar einv it
edt opar ti
cipateont hi
sgr eat
exercis eof“ thi
nkingaboutt hef uture”ofy ourcompany ,considering
the3Scenar iosfort heCor onav i
rusPandemi cthatwehav eprepar ed
fory ou. Readt hi
se- book, wat chtheonl i
nel ectur eont heAmer i
cas
Bus ines sChannel onYouT ube, andi nv itecol l
eaguest of orma
discus siongr oup.Inaddi t
iont odev elopingi mpor tantmanager i
al
skil
lsandoffer i
ngacont ri
but iontoy ourcompany ,thisactivi
tycan
alsoawar dy ous chol ar
shi psofupt oUS$4, 000!Fi ndoutmor e
detai l
sbyt heendoft hisdocument .
St
ati
sti
calT
echni
quest
o 2
Pr
edictt
heEvol
uti
onofthe
COVID-1
9Pandemic
Themos timport
antques tionrightnowi s:Forhowl ongwi llwes t
il
l
hav etofacethepandemi cands ocial i
sol
at i
on?Themat hematical
model mostcommonl yus edt ocalculatethedur ati
onofanepi demi c
i
st heSI RModel,shortforSus ceptible,I
nfect edandRecov ered.
Sus cepti
blearepeopl
ewhocangett hedi sease.I
nfectedarethose
whohav ealr
eadycont ractedt hedi sease. Recoveredar epat
ients
whohav emanagedt oov er comet hediseas eandhav ebecome
i
mmu
m net oit
.Withtheincl usionofanaddi ti
onalsetofdata,iti
s
pos si
bletoconstr
uctadi fferent i
alequat i
ont oes t
imate,with
reasonablepreci
sion,thedur ati
onandi mpactoft heepi demic.

Gr
aphel
abor
atedwi
tht
heSI
Rmodel
-Ex
ampl
e
 3
Tobui ldtheequat i
on, t wofundament al pi
ecesofi nformat ionar e
needed. Fi rst
,the“ Bet a”par ameteroft heepi demi c,thatis,how
manyi nteracti
onsbet weenSus cepti
bleandI nfectedpeopl ear e
neces saryf ortheSus cept i
bletocont ractthedi seasef rom the
Infected.COVI D-19i scaus edbyar ecentCor onav i
rusmut ation,
whi chs t
illl
ackss uffi cientdocument ationtodet ermi necont agi on
condi ti
ons( WHO, 2020) .Studieshav es ofars hownawi der angeof
fi
ndi ngsr egardingt her esistanceofthev i
rust otheenv ir
onment ,it
s
mos tcommonv ector s,andot herbas icinf
or mat i
on. Therei sev ena
ris
kofcont ami nati
ont hroughani mal s,consider i
ngt hatbot h
domes ti
candwi l
dani mal shav ealreadybeendi agnos edwi tht he
vir
us( OiE, 2020) .

Thes econdcr ucialinf

ormat i
on,al s
ounk nown, i
st he“ Gamma”
paramet er :Ther ecov eryr ateofani nfect edindiv i
dual, whowoul d
nowbepar toft heRecov eredgr oup. Ther earev i
rusesinwhi cht he
pati
entnev err ecov ersfrom, suchasHI V, f
orex ampl e.COVI D- 1
9
doesnots eem t ohav ethi sprofi
le,al thoughcas esofr einfectionof
pati
ent swhohav ealreadybeen" cured"hav ebeenr epor ted.Atthis
poi
nt ,itisdi fficul ttoknowwhet hert herehasbeenar ecur r
enceor
whet hert hepat ienthasbecomei nfect edagai nbyanewv i
rus
mut ati
on. Inaddi tion,asy mpt omat i
ccas esar enoty etpos sibl
et o
quant i
fy.Chi nahashundr edsofpeopl eunderobs er
v ati
ont hatfi
t
thi
sdes cription. Theyar epeopl edi agnos edwi tht hev ir
us ,whoar e
potentialv ect orsoft hedi seas e,andwhohav enotmani fested
sympt omsy et.

Epi
demi
ol
ogi
cal
Model
SIR-Di
ffer
ent
ial
Equat
ion
 4
Givent heunav ailabi l
it
yofbas i
ci nformat i
ont oes ti
mat ethe
developmentoft hedi seas eintheirpopul ations,gov ernments
resortedt oanal y zi
ngChi na’scas es, especiall
yinWuhanpr ovi
nce,
wher et heepidemi car os e.Betweent heannouncementoft hefi
rst
deathi nChi na, onJ anuar y11t
h, untilthefi
rs tdaywi t
houtr ecor
ded
deaths( Apr i
l6th) ,86day spas sed, leavingat railbehindof3,300
deaths .Inviewoft helackofv accinesandt herapeut icopti
ons,
governmentact ionshav ebeenr educedt ot womeas ures:
Large- scalediagnos estoi sol
atet hecont ami natedandmandat ory
socialisolati
on. Woul ditbepos s i
blet oappl ythes emeas urest
othe
restoft hewor ld, thusus ingt heirdat aasabas etopr edi
ctthe
evolutionoft hedi seaseonagl obal scale?

Evol
uti
onofthenumberofinf
ect
edinChina
Sour
ce:Wor l
dometer
El
aborat
ion:Bus
inessI
nsi
der,
Apri
l2,2020.
 5
Again,ther earedi fficultiesinthisanal y si
s .First,
count r
ies'
cli
mat i
c
ands ocialcondi ti
onsv ary ,i
nsertingas etofi nterveningv ari
ables
thataredi fficulttomeas ur e.Second, socialcont rolmechani smsi n
Chinaar es ignifi
cantlymor er i
gidt hani nt her estoft hewor l
d.Wi t
h
thehelpoft echnol ogy, t
heChi nes egov ernmentpr omot edas eriesof
meas uresr estr
ictings oci alcontactt hatcoul dhar dlybe
i
mpl ement edi nanot hercount ry, especiallyint heWes t
,wheret here
arelessint ensi
v er estri
ctivemeas ures, andl esscont roloft
he
epidemic. InWuhan, therewer e7 4day sofabs olutel ockdownand
thegov ernmenti spr ojectingatl easttwomor emont hsofsevere
restr
ict
ionsonpeopl e’smobi li
tyint heci ty.

Socialisolati
onandpr eventi
onincent
iveshav ebeent heonl y
mechani smspr ov ent obeeffectiv
einr educingtherateof
contami nati
onbyCOVI D-19.TheUNr epor t
sthatmor ethan1 40
countri
esonal lcont i
nentshadtakens tepstopromot esocial
i
solati
onbyt heendofMar ch2020.Unes co’
sreport
, als
or eleas
edi
n
March, estimatest hat75% oftheworl
d' sin-
personeducat ional
acti
vit
ieswer esus pendedduet otheCor onavi
rus.

Theex tentofthes emeas uresv ar i

edf r
om count rytocount ry
,
i
ndi catingal ackofcons ens usonwhatt odo. Whi l
eint heWuhan
regiont hepopul ationwask epti ntheirhomesf ormor et hantwo
mont hsandmov ementout sidet hepr ovincewasbanned, measures
i
not hercount riespr ovedt obemor elenientorev enunex pected.
Whi leinPanamat hegov ernmentr estri
ctedt hemov ementofpeopl e
bygender ,
separ atingmenf rom womenont hes t
reets,Colombi a
establ i
shedr estrictionsaccor dingtopeopl es’IDnumber s.InAus t
ri
a,
theus eofmas ksi ns upermar ketshasbecomemandat or y
,whichis
notr ecommendedbyt heWHO, whilethegov ernmentofs ome
regionsi nItalyhasi mpos edf i
nesofupt o€5, 000f orthosewho
i
gnor es oci
alisolationmeas ures-anes timated7 0,000fineshav e
beeni mpos ed, andt hatgi vesani deat ohowpeopl ewer enot
adher ingt osafetymeas ur esatt hebegi nning.
 6
Restri
cti
onsoni nternati
onal tr
av elhavebeent akenbyv irt
ual
lyevery
countryinthewor ld,alsov ar
yinggr eatl
yinrules.Whilesome
countri
eshav ecompl etelyblock edforei
gnersfrom enteri
ng,others
havees t
abli
sheds electi
v ecrit
eria,andforcedquar anti
nesfor
i
nternati
onal v
isi
tors.Int
er nat
ional f
li
ghtcancelationreachedupt o
90% ofthes cheduledt r
ipsofs omecompani es( Fort
une,March1 6,
2020).Theimpactonai rl
inerev enuesandr esultsshouldbeof
si
milarlevel
stothos eoff li
ghtcut s.
 7
Theres eemst obeacons ensusamongex pert
sthatitisnotpossi
ble
tozerooutt hetransmissionofthevir
us.However,ift
hereisnoeffort
toslowdownt ransmission,andthenumberofpeopl einneedof
tr
eatmentwi l
lbegreaterthanthatofthecapacit
yhos pit
alnetwor
ks,
i
twi l
lincreasethenumberofdeat hs.
Theaim ofsociali
solat
ion
meas uresistobuyv aluableti
mei norderf
ormor epeopletobe
caredforandhav etheirli
vessaved,t
heref
orefl
atteni
ngt he
contami nat
ioncurve.

Source:CDC
Adaptedfr
om:TheEconomist
Economicimpact
sofi
solat
ion
 8
Measurestocontaint hes preadofthev i
rusareneces s
arytoprevent
ahumanitari
ancatas tropheofhistori
cpropor t
ions.However,t
hey
haveanequallybrutal sideeffectont heeconomy .Thefalli
nstock
val
uesisoneofthei ndi catorst
hatcanex pressinv
es t
ors'vi
ewson
thegl
obaleconomyf ort heupcomi ngmont hsandy ears.

Bloomber gdataf
rom Apr
il1
st,2020precit
edaccumul ateddecli
nes
ofmor ethan20% onmajorstockexchangesaroundt heworld.I
nthe
l
as tt
woweeksofMar ch2020alone,nearl
y10mi l
li
onpeoplef i
l
ed
unempl oymentcl
aimsintheUnitedStates
,anunpr ecedent
ed
number( U.S.Bur
eauofLaborStati
sti
cs,Apri
l3,2020).
 9
I
ndus t
rialproducti
onisaffect edintwodifferentways.Withcl
osed
shops, t
hereisadr opinsales,andmanyi ndustr
ieswil
lals
oneedto
stoptheiracti
vit
ies.Theoutlookinemergingcountri
esisofdecl
ini
ng
productivi
tyinvirt
uall
yallemer gi
ngcountri
es,withChinahavi
ngthe
worstper f
ormancei nthelast20y ear
sforFebruary2020anda
moder aterecoveryinMarch.

Economicdevelopmentisboost
edbymanyf act
ors
.Twoofwhich
areofutmosti
mpor t
ance:goodMacr o-Economicfoundati
ons,
and
people’
str
ustintheeconomy.Thecoronaviruscri
si
sthreat
ensto
di
s r
uptsever
alMacro-Economicfoundati
ons .
 1
0
Publ
icAccount
s

Thebal anceofpubl i
caccount sisthefir
s tt
obeaffect ed,cons ideri
ng
thatgov ernmentsalloverthewor l
dwi llneedt oincreasetheir
expenditureonatl eastthr
eear eas
. HealthSect or,t
ocombatt he
advancementoft hedisease,Unempl oymentWel fare,answeringt o
thescar ci
tyofjobpos ti
ngs,andCr edit,
tof omentpr oducti
v e
acti
vit
ies .
Thes iz
eoft heresul
tingdef i
ci
ts t
ill
cannotbecal culated,
butnumber smuchl argerthanwhatwass pentdur i
ngt hefinancial
cri
sisof2008and2009, ar
ees ti
mat ed.

LaborMar
ket

Thenumberofunempl oyedwor k
erscoul
dgr owt olevelseven
hardertof
athom. Parti
al r
eportsfr
om sev
er alcount
riespointtothe
doubli
ng,ortr
ipl
ing, ofpeopleoutsi
deoftheJ obMar ket,andalong
wit
hi t
,ari
sktos ocialstabil
it
yandt ot
hev eryowngov ernmental
mechanism ofsocialwel f
are.

I
nfl
ati
onandSt
agnat
ion

Witht hedisrupt i
onofs everal
productionchains,
it’
splausiblet
o
assumet hatthegener ali
zedpr i
ceofsomegoodss houldrise.
Combi nedwi ththes l
owingdownoft heeconomy ,t
hef ear
ed
‘
’Stagflati
on’,
’or‘’
Stagnati
onwi thInfl
ati
on’
,
’couldverywel l
occur.
Usuallycaus edbyt heexpansionofmonet ar
ybas e,t
hepr ognosisf
or
thepos t
-cri
si
sper iodoftheCor onavir
uscanbedi vergi
ng, andsti
ll
un-studiedbyt heeconomi calauthori
ti
esofthecountries.
 1
1
BondMar
ket

Interestr atesar eessential

lycompos edbyt hepr iceofmoney ,
defaultingr isk,ebanks pread. Thepr iceofmoneyi sgoingdownal l
overt hewor l
d,duet other educt ionoft hebas i
ci nter
es tratesof
cent r
al banksi nmos tcount ri
es ,ar es ponset othes ti
mul ust o
product ionandcons umpt ion.Ther i
s kofdef aulti
ngs houldr ise,with
uncount ableeconomi cagent sf acingdi ffi
cultytohonort heirduties.
Int hi
sf i
nal aspect,developedcount riescouldbemor eaffect edt han
emer gingcount r
ies,seeingast hedegr eeofl everaget hattheir
fi
nanci al instit
uti
onsoper at eatt endst obemor eelevated. Theres ul
t
tendst obet heriseoffinal i
nteres tratesandcr editli
mi t
ations,
exceptt hos ethatareguar anteedbyt hegover nment .

Thepeopl e’sleveloftrusti
neconomi cgrowthi smor ecompl ext o
meas ure,especiall
yinagl obal scale.TheInternational Monet ary
Fund( IMF)hasbeendev eloping,fors omet i
me, auni que
met hodologyt omeas urethedegr eeoft r
ustpeopl ehav eint he
economy ,whenf aci
ngpandemi cs .I
ncompar i
s ont otheSar s( 2002)
,
AviaryFlu(2003- 2009),Swi neFlu( 2009-2010),Ebol a(2014-201 6)
andMer s(2014-2020)cr i
si
s ,t
heuncer tai
ntydegr eepr ovokedby
COVI D-19cr i
sisisalr
eadyatahi ghers t
ageev ent houghi twas
est
imat edbefor ethecr i
si
sr eachedi tswor s
tmomenti nmos tparts
ofthewor ld.
1
2
 1
3
Acr isisofthisproport
ionwi llputmanager s’qualifi
cati
onsatt est.
Theoneswho, i
nthismoment ,
canmak ether ightdecisions, wil
l
evaluat ethefutureperspectiveswithmos taccur acy,andgett he
bes tres ul
ts.Beyondthepl ethoraofstr
ategicopt i
onsneces saryto
faceanycr is
is,apri
orit
yf ormanager sinthismomenti st oforesee
thef uturedev el
opmentpos sibi
li
ti
esofthispandemi candbui l
d
strategiestodeal wit
hdi fferentpos s
ibi
li
ti
es .Thenex tses si
onoft hi
s
studys howst heexactmechani smsandpr ocedur esforcompani es
tov i
s ualiz
efuturepossibil
it
iesandmak ethebes tdeci s
ionsf orthe
moment .
How t
oThi
nkAboutt
heFut
ure 1
4
I
nf aceofsomanyuncertai
nti
esandnegativ
eprognosi
s,wearr
iveat
acentralpoi
nti
nthisst
udy:Howt ofor
eseeandplanmanagement
decisi
onsahead,i
nordertobereadyfort
hefut
ure?

Fir
stl
y ,
it’
simportanttosaythat,yes,manager sshouldmak eeffort
s
toforeseewhat’
st ocomeandmak edeci s
ionsthatputstheir
organizat
ioni
napr iv
il
egedpos i
ti
oni nthefuture.However,i
t’
s
neces s
arytodot histheri
ghtway ,keepinginmi ndthatt
hereisris
k
ofprovokingevenf urt
herdamaget hant heabs enceofpl
anning
aheadwoul dalreadybring.Let’
sbringforthnow, i
nas ummar iz
ed
manner ,t
hemos ti
mpor t
anttechniqueforplanningahead.

Scenar
iosT
echni
que

I
magi ney oursel
finthef utur
e,surroundedbyanar t
iculates etof
plaus
ibleci rcumstancesands tatehowy ourcompanys houldbe
react
ing, cons i
deri
ngt hos eci
rcums tances .Thisis,simpl yandbol dl
y,
whatt heScenar iosTechni queis.Ex t
ractedf rom t
heat ert erminology,
Scenar i
osendedupbecomi ng, i
nAdmi nist
rationterms , as y
nony m
ofref
lect i
onaboutt hef utureandi t
smul t
iplepos si
bili
ties. Expert
si n
sever
al fieldsareaskedt obuildoneormor ef utur
es cenar i
os,fi
ll
ed
withnuanceanddet ail
s, t
oinvitemanager stoanal yzet hes e
Scenar i
oscompos it
ionsandchoos ethebes tcompanys trat
egyto
thecont ex t
.

Whati npr i
nciples eemss imple, becomesmor ecompl exatthetime
ofexecution.Init
iall
y,sev eralbas icopt i
onsar ees tablished:Willwe
trytopredictthef utureinours cenar io?Orwi llcompl eteand
plausi
bleas sumpt ionsaboutdi ffer entalternativesbeenoughf ora
companyt oex er
cis etheirs t
rategict hought saboutt hef uture?Wi l
l
wet hinkofoneormor es cenarios ?Ifmor ethanone, howmany?
Whos houldpar t
icipateint hecons t
ructi
onoft hes cenar i
osand
strat
egies?Thecons ult
ant s,t
hes peciali
sts,theacademi cs,
the
company’ sstafforal lofthem?Hows houldt hispar t
icipati
on
functi
onandwhatmet hodologys houldbeus ed?
Thebeginni
ngoft
heScenar
ios 1
5
Techni
que
Int hewor l
dofbus ines sadmi nistrati
on, thei nstituti
onal eventt hat
seemst omar kt hebegi nningofs parkedi nteres tint heus eof
scenar i
oss tar
tedi nt he60’ s.Her manKahncr eat edt heHuds on
Institute,provi
di ngt hedev el
opmentof“ f
uture- now”bas eds t
or i
es–
apr eli
minar yver s
ionofwhatl aterwoul dbecomet hes cenar ios
techni que.Atal mos tthes amet i
me, TedNewl and, Shel l’
sex ecut i
ve,
i
nt roducedwi thinthecompanyt he“ Thinkingt heFut ure”,apr ogram
thatr epresentedt hef i
rstbigadv ancei nt hi
ss ect orofpr ivate
admi nist
rati
on. It’
swor t
hhi ghlight i
ngt hepi oneereffor toft he
“Standf ordRes earchI nstit
ute”( SRI)of1 947, whi chi nter mittent ly
adv ancedont hi sfi
el d,givi
ngi tadef i
ni t
iveform wi tht hecr eat ionof
“Fut uresGr oup”i n1 968, whichhadt hepur pos eofcr eatingf ut ure
Amer icans oci
et ys cenar i
os .I
twasi nt hiscont ex tthatar es ear ch
seriesaboutAmer i
cancons umer swer edev eloped( “ Values&
Lifes tyl
es”–VALS) ,thes cenariosf ort heenv ironmentpr otect i
on
agency( EPA) ,andot hers.

Admit
tedl
y,unt
ilnow,thescenari
ost echni
queproces
swass t
il
lraw,
giv
enthel
ackofpr of
oundtheorizat
ion,andbasedmos t
lyi
ncreati
ve
thi
nki
ngwhichispoorlyar
ticul
atedwi thdeci
si
onmaking.
CompanyShel
l’
sCase 1
6

Thef i
rstexperi
enceofpl anningf
rom organi zati
onsus ingthe
Scenar i
osoccursinEur opeangrounds ,undert het i
tl
e“ Uneimage
delaFr anceenl ’
an2000”( Shwartz,2000) ,aScenar i
opr omotedby
Datar,theorganism ofpublicadmini
s t
rationofFr ance, i
n1971,
ina
studyofgeogr aphi
ct endencyforFrancei nthel astquar t
eroftheXX
century.I
twasi ntheoi lcompany,Shell
,thatt heScenar ios
techniqueobtainedbi ggerimpul
seandt heoreti
cal consist
ency.

RightaftertheWor ldWarI I,
Shel lalr
eadyus edpr ojectionsoft he
fut
ur einphy si
calres ourceplanni ngneces saryt othei roperati
ons .
Buti nthe60’s,thistechniqueal sos tart
edt obeus edf or
economi c-fi
nancial orient
ati
onoft hecompany .Dur ingt he7 0’
sthese
projecti
onsoft hef uturemar kedt heintroductiont ot he“ Scenari
os
Technique”,whichi nt he80’ss t
retchedmanagementpl anning
horizons,withsy s
temi cgeopol i
ticalfactorsbet weent heanal y
s i
s
l
ay out.Oneoft hedi rectconsequencesoft histowar dst he
systemat i
crefl
ectionsoft hefutur e,wast heabi l
itys hownbyt he
companyofr eactingt oabruptandpr of
oundchangest hathappened
tothissector,bri
ngi ngShel lt
oal eadershippos it
ionbet weenot her
oilcompani es.

Thebiggestcorporati
vechallengeistoenhancet hecompany’ s
capacit
ytoadaptt ochangeswhi chares t
il
lyettocome. These
changesmaynotbef oreseen,demandinggr eatadaptabili
ty,
orit
maybeant i
cipatedbymanager s,f
acil
it
ati
ngt hestr
ategical
adjus
tmentproces s.Changescanal sobeduet oas pecificacti
on
fr
om oneormor ecompani es,orgover
nment s,cr
eati
ngchanges
whichothersmus treactt
o.
 1
7
Thef uture’spros pecti s,inthismoment ,anes senti
alconditi
ont ofor
compani estoobt aincompet it
iveadvant age, alt
houghi tfi
ndss everal
l
imi t
ingfact orswhi chs houldbecons ider ed. Fir
st,r
esultsobtai
ned
fr
om v ariousex istingt echni quesmus tbei ntegratedintothe
StrategicAdmi nistration, mor especi
fically,i
nt othedecision-making
proces s.Then, theor gani zati
on,mus tbeawar ethatiti
si mposs i
ble
tohav eanaccur atepr edicti
onaboutt hef uture.Fi
nally
,it’
simpor t
ant
tonot ethatt hismet hoddoes n’
teli
mi natet her i
sksofthes tr
ategical
choices ,alt
houghi tmayex pandthet hinkingofmanager s,
andgi ve
abet terv i
ewoft hepl ay ersinacti
on.
Met
hodsf
orFut
urePr
ospect
ion 1
8

Severalr
esearchtechniquesandmet hodologieshavebeenus ed
wit
ht hegoalofenvironmentalandf utur
epr ospect
ion.Ther
ehav e
beenatleast14analyti
caltechniquesdevelopedoft he
envi
ronmental v
ari
ables:Speciali
stsOpinion,Tendency
Exaggerat
ion,Alt
ernateScenarios,andother s(Di
ffenbach,1983)
.

I
tispossi
blet
oclassi
fyf
orecas
tingt
echniquesasquantit
ati
veand
qual
it
ati
ve.Quant
it
ati
vetechni
quesaresub-groupedinanal
ys i
sand
proj
ect
ionoftempor
alseri
esandcausalmethods.(Bet
hlem,1996)
.

Glueck( 1976)indicatest hreetechni quegroupsf orenv i

ronment al
analysisandr esear ch:Collectinginformation,predicti
onand
espionage. Thepr edictionsgr oupiss ub-divi
dedi nqual i
tat
ive
techniques( SpecialistsPanels ,DelphiMet hod),Histori
cal
Compar isonandPr ojecti
on( mar kscurrenttrendsandex tr
apolates
them tot hefuture)andCaus alModel s(compar isont o
environment alfactorswi ththecompanyf actors
).Inthef i
eldof
predicti
onmet hodsf orenv ir
onment alchanges ,severalt
echniques
haveal readybeendocument ed.

Al
ltheabovet
echni
quesareusedtodevel
opScenari
os,
helpi
ng
managerst
obett
erunder
standfut
ureposs
ibi
l
iti
esandprepar
efor
t
hem.
“
Scenar
ios”
,inpl
ural 1
9
Theideaist ol
earnhowt odeal wit
hnotone, butmanypossible
fut
ures,withequalrel
evanceindiscussingaboutt hef
utur
et hat
awaitsus,andt hepat
hwegot hroughtor eachit.
Wemaychoos e3
to5bet t
errepresent
ati
vef ut
uresandleadt heorganiz
ati
ontor ef
lect
upont hem,buildi
ngtherightcondit
ionstolearnaboutthefuture
anditsmul t
ipl
epos si
bil
i
ties.

Thisi sbecaus eas inglescenar i

oi nducest heor ganizationt opr epare
onlyf ort hatreal it
y,makingi tincapabl eofreact ionincas ethe
‘
’prediction’’doesnothappen. Ont heothers i
de, t
hecr eationof
doz ensofopt i
onswoul ddis perset hemanagementcapaci tyaround
detailsandnuancesofl i
ttl
ei mpact .Theobj ecti
v eisnotanaccur ate
phot ographyoft omor row,buts trategicdecisions ,whichar emor e
precis eandi n- depth.AsanAr abicpr overbgoes ,“Theonewho
predict st hefut ure,li
es,eveni fhes aysthet ruth’.
’Ourr ole,therefore,
seemst obet hatoft hi
nkingabouts everal
pos si
blefutur es,
enhanci ngt hecompany’ sreactiont i
mewhens omet hi
ngcl oset o
whatwepr edi cted,happens .

Today, i
fwet aket heCOVI D- 19Cr isisasanex ample,itisimpos s
ibl
e
todeter minewi thanylevel ofcer taintywhent hePandemi cwi l
lbe
overcome. I
t’
sat ypicalexampl eofas i
tuati
oni nwhicht hecompany
mayr eflectintwoormor es cenar iosands tr
ivetoprepar eforallof
them. Thisistheobj ect
iveoft hisdocument :Supportmanager sto
buil
ddi fferentpos si
bili
ti
esfort heirmar ketsandcompani esand
guidet hecreationofs t
rategieswhi char ecapabl eofleadingthe
companyt oov ercomet hiscrisi
s, andev enpros peri
ni t
. Wecall
thesedeci si
ons‘ ’
Robus tStrategies ’
,
’thatwi l
lbebet t
erintroduced
now.
Bui
ldi
ngDi
ffer
entScenar
ios 20
f
oraCompany
Scenari
osarebuiltspeci
fi
callyf
oradet erminedcompany ,a
determi
nedMar ket.Whatwe’ l
lcreat
el aterisageneralf
ramewor kof
thescenari
oswhichwi l
lneedt obef i
l
ledi nwi t
hdetail
sbyt he
manager,consi
deringhisownr eali
tyandt hesetofdeci
sionsthat
shouldbetaken.Theproces sofbuil
dings cenariosmust
contemplat
eatleast4phas es:

1
.Def
inet
hesetofdeci
sionst
obet
aken.

Thes cenariowouldn’tbeat oolcapabl eofsolv

ingeveryprobl
em at
once, havi
nganeces si
tyofbui l
dingitwiththegoalofsolv
inga
specif
icques t
ionordeci si
ont obet aken.Forstudyi
ngpurposes,we
sugges tasetofwi deques t
ionstobeans weredbymanager s.
Howev er
,it
’sexpectedthatthegr oupinvolvedintheconstr
ucti
onof
theses cenari
oshelpdev el
opnewques ti
onstobepr esent
edlater
,
givent heparti
cul
ar i
tyofeachcompanyi neachmar ket
.
Bui
ldi
ngDi
ffer
entScenar
ios 21
f
oraCompany
2.I sol atet hekey- factort hataffect st hisdeci sion,consi der ing
thatsuchkey- fact or scanbeconsi der edasconst ant ,evol ut i
onal
orer ratic.
Ther ear es ev er
al key -f
actor st hatwi llconductt heact ual sit
uat ionto
thef ut uremomentbei ngev aluat ed.Someoft hes ef actor swon’ t
changei nsidet hi stimeper iod, beingcons i
der edher eascons tants.
Ty pical exampl esi ncl udecl imat e, geogr aphyi ngener al,andmany
other st hatcanbenamedi nt hiss tudiedtimeline, whi chwon’ tbe
trans formed, accor di ngt omanager s
’ev al
uation.Ev olut i
onal fact or
s
aret hos ethatt endt ochangei nar eas onablypredi ctabl eway , such
aspopul ati
ongr owt h, pri
cei ndex( f
ors hortertimeper iods )and
manyot hers. Errati
cf act
or sar et hosewhi chper f
ormancei sv er y
unpr edi ctableonal ong- ev aluat edper iod,requiringt hecons truct i
on
ofal ternat es cenar iosf ort hemul ti
plepos sibi
liti
es .
Bas edon
epi demi ol
ogys tudi esandgov er nment sdeci si
onsobs erv at
ion, this
documentpr opos es3al ter nat es cenar i
ostot hedev elopmentf or
nex ty ear ’
sCOVI D- 19cr isis. I
twi llbeupt othemanagert oreflecton
thepar t
iculariti
esofhi scompanyandmar kettocompl ementt he
gapsandenr icheachoft he3Scenar iosframewor kspr opos edher e.

3.Scenar iosConst r
uct ion
Iti
st hemomentf ort heel abor ati
ngs cenariosort he“setoffutures”
thattheor gani zationwi llanal yze, arti
culatingadeepknowl edgeof
thepr es entwi thpr os pect sar oundt hecons tant,evoluti
onaryand
errat
icf act ors.Theex pect ati
onpl acedi nt hiss tudyisthatagr oupof
manager swi llbeabl et oadv ancei ndetail eachoft hei ni
ti
al
ly
propos eds cenar ios .Asnot iceabl e, t
hepr opos edScenar i
osar e
centeredar oundt hepos s i
bili
tiesofdev elopmentoft heCOVI D-19
cri
s i
sfort hey ear2021 .Someot heraddi tional el
ement sare
present ed, buts til
l insuffi cientt ooffermanager sav i
sionofhowt he
mar ketoft hator gani zat
ionwi llbenex tyear .It’
swi t
hani ncreasei n
detail,madeupofpl ausibleas sumpt i
onsbyt hemember softhe
company ,thatdeci sionscanbes ucces sf
ul l
ymade.
 22
4.Organiz
ationalDevel
opmentandBuil
dingVi
abl
eRobust
St
rat
egiesforEachofTheseScenar
ios

Asmai nobj ectiveoft hetechni que, organizat

ional dev el
opment
takespl acedur ingthepr eparationofScenar i
os ,
whenv arious
manager sar einvolvedi nas ystemat i
cproces sof“ thinkingaboutt he
future”
.Thet endencyi sthatt heans werstoques tionsas kedwill
i
nitiall
ybedi fferentineachoft he3s cenari
osi nvolved. Howev er,
witht heev oluti
onoft hedi s
cus s i
on, i
twillbepos siblet oidenti
fya
setofs trategicdecisionst hatoffergoodper s
pect i
v esfort he
companyr egardlessoft hef utures cenariothatwi l
l actuallyoccur
.
Thes edeci sionsarecal ledRobus tSt rat
egies,duet ot heirabili
tyto
functioni ndifferentr eali
ties.
3Coronavi
rusPandemi
c 23
Scenar
ios
Themai nques t
iont hatt hemanager sputt othems elvesi s“How
l
ongwi llthiscr i
s i
sl as t?”
. Mor es pecifical
l
y ,whatwi ll
bet hetimeand
extensionoft hecont ingencymeas uresthatt hegov er nment smight
takedur ingt hepandemi c?Att hemoment ,it’
snotpos s ibletomak e
anydef inites tatement srelatedt ot heques t
ionsabov e. Buty es,i
t’
s
pos si
blet opr edi ctal ternates cenar iosandr eflectov ert hedecisi
ons
thatshoul dbet ak enbymanager sineachoft hes escenar i
os.The
i
deal sit
uat ioni sf ort heor gani zationt odev elopas etofdeci s i
ons
thatcanbeconduct eds ucces sfull
yr egardlessoft hes cenariothat
mayconf igur e.It’
si mpor tantt or ememberonceagai nt hatthe
scenariospr opos edher eDON’ Thav ethepur poseofpr edicti
ngany
futurewi thaccur acy .Itsobj ectivei stopr esentpl ausibl er eali
ti
esthat
mayl eadmanager sofeachcompanyt oreflectov ert hedeci si
ons
thatcanbemadenowi nor dert odeal withfut urereal i
t i
es ,i
nthe
bes tpos si
bl eway .
 24
Thescenar
ioswer
edevel
opedover
allf
rom t
hef
oll
owi
ng
sour
ces:

-Dat
acompli
edunti
lApr
il1
0th,
2020byJ
ohnsHopki
nshos
pit
alov
er
t
heevol
uti
onofpandemi
cs

-UNmonitor
ingofrestr
ict
ivemeasur
esofs
oci
alcont
actand
mobi
l
ityi
ndifferentcountr
iesoft
heworl
d

-Opini
onsofexper
tsindi
ffer
entar
eas
,whoexpress
edthei
ropini
ons
t
hroughart
icl
espubli
shedi
nmassmediaandi
ns ci
ent
if
icmagazi
nes

Basedonthesedocuments,wesuggestfortheanalysi
sof
manager
sinvolvedinmakingfut
uredecisi
onsfortheir
compani
esthef ol
lowi
ngalter
nat
ivescenari
os:

Scenar
io1-Smoot
hdev
elopmentandcor
rectgov
ernmentmeas
ures

Scenar
io2-Per
sis
tentpandemi
candcor
rectgov
ernmentmeas
ures

Scenar
io3-Per
sis
tentpandemi
candi
nsuffi
ci
entgov
ernment
measures

Theyar
epres
entedint
henextsect
ionoft
hiss
tudy
,fol
l
owedbyt
he
prel
i
minar
yaskedques
tionst
omanagers.
ScenariosWor
kshop 25
Development
Openpar
tici
pat
ionofi
ndi
vidual
sandgr
oups

Submity
ourworkbyApri
l30toreceiv
ey ourpar
ti
ci
pat
ioncerti
fi
cat
e
andappl
yfors
cholar
shi
ps.Moredetai
lsattheendoft
hisdocument.

Scenari
o1-Smoot hdevel
opmentandagr
eed
governmentmeasures
We’ r
ei nmiddleMay2021 ,18mont hsafterthes t
artofCOVI D-19
pandemi csinChi na.Manyliv
eshav ebeenl os ti
nthel ast18mont hs,
butthecombi nati
onofmeas uresrest
ricti
ngcont agi
onand
signif
icantexpans i
onofthehealthservicecapacitywer es ufficientt
o
preventthecal amityfr
om becomingev engr eater
.Rightnow, thefir
st
vaccinesproducedagai nstCOVI D-1
9ar ebeingdi st
ributedi n
differentcount r
iesaroundthewor l
d,priori
ti
zinghealthpr ofessional
s,
theelderly,
andot hergroupsmos tvulnerabletothedi sease.

Themos tst
r i
ngentf ormsofl ockdownwer eimpl ement edinmos t
countriesbet weenFebr uaryandApr il2020.Aft
ert hisperiod,oneby
oneoft hecount r
iesi nt hewor l
dpr oceededtot hes econdphas eof
rest
ricti
v eactions ,inwhi chVer t
icalI
solati
on,al
s ocal ledIntell
igent
Isol
ation, al
lowedagr adual r
et urntonor mali
ty.
Bet weenJ ul
yand
September2020, thous andsofnewdai l
ycasesoft hedi seasewer e
reportedwor l
dwi de, butt hemaj orit
yoft hepopul ationalreadyhad
naturalr esi
stancet ot hev ir
usandpeopl ewit
ht hemos tsevere
caseshadr eas onabl yadequat econditionsofcar ei ntheex panded
hospital networ k.Dev el
opedcount ri
eswer ethef i
r sttoov er
comet he
mos tacut ephas eoft hecr i
sisandwer eabletopr ovideequi pment
toemer gingcount ri
es ,especi all
yinLat inAmerica, AfricaandAs i
a.
 26
Thefi
rstmont hsofcri
siswer ehar
dandbr oughtmanychal l
engest o
manager sofpubli
candpr i
v ateor
ganizationsaroundt hewor ld.Af
ter
st
ockex changesdropped45% i nthef i
rstmont hsofthecr i
sis,
devel
opedcount ri
esrecoveredandcl osedt hey earof2020wi t
h
l
ossesar ound10%.Wi t
htheoffi ci
aldecr eethatt hePandemi cwas
undercont r
ol,
inDecember2020, inves t
orsr et
urnedtopr ospect
opport
uni t
iesandstocksstartedt
hisy ear,2021,withexpr
es si
v e
gai
ns.

Thegl obal economywass t

agnanti n2020, wi thgrowt hofonly1%,
agains tthe3. 4% gr owthi n2019. Withl ar
gev ariati
onsbet ween
countries ,globalunempl oymentr eached9% att heendof2020,
agains t7.2% att heendof201 9.Fort hisyear,2021,theex pect
ati
onis
thatthemaj or
ityoft hepeopl ewhol os tt
heirjobswi llbeableto
retur
nt othel abormar ket.Socialprotectionmeas ures,especi
all
y
rel
atedt ounempl oy ment,guar anteedf oragoodpar toft
his
unempl oyedpopul ationacces stoes s enti
alpubl i
cres our
cesforthei
r
survi
v al t
hr oughout2020andi nt hebegi nningof2021 .

Additi
onally,i
nv estmentsmadeinf avoroft heres umptionof
economi cdev elopment ,
publi
cspendi ngr oses i
gnifi
cantly.Most
OECDmembercount ri
esnowhav epublicdef i
cit
sabov et hei
r
annual GDP, withthegov er
nment sofJ apan, Greece,I
taly,Port
ugal
,
theUni t
edSt atesandFr anceowi ngmor et hant wicetheirannual
GDP. Stil
lfarfr
om bei ngablet
or aisetaxesorcuts pending,
government sar eatthelimi
toftheircapaci tytohonorcommi tments
withouthav i
ngt or esor
ttoanincreaseoft hemonet arybas e,
compr omis i
nginflati
on.
 27
TheAv iati
onsector,oneoft hemos taffect edbyt hecri
sis
, wasals
o
oneoft hosethatrecei v
edt hemos tres ourcesfrom governments.At
theendof2020, i
nternational fl
ightswer es ti
ll
30% belowt hose
recordedattheendof201 9, wit
hi mpact sont heentir
echai nof
businessandl ei
suret ourism. Thebegi nningof2021hasal r
eady
presentedgoodnumber sf orhos pitali
ty,leisur
eandt ouri
sm
productionchain,whichs houldcl os ethisy earof2021recoveri
ng
muchofwhati thadl ostin2020.

TheCommuni cati
onT echnologys ector,ont heotherhand, benefit
ed
from t hecr isisandgr ewbyar ound25% i n2020. I
nt hesefirs
t
mont hsof2021 ,t
echnol ogy-basedcompani escont i
nuedt oex pand
mar ket s,mot i
v at
edbyt heneedf ortheircus tomerstoupdat etheir
i
nt ernal (collaborators)andex ternal(customer sands upplier
s )
relati
ons hi ps oluti
ons.Int hewak eoft hi
sdev el
opment ,several
mar ket sas soci at
edwi thCommuni cati
onT echnologygai ned
strengt h,s uchasdi gi
tal ent
ertai
nment ,
onlinegames ,e-
commer ce
etc.Thef inanci alsect
or ,als
oaffect edbyt hecr isi
sin2020, is
ex pect edt oex pands tronglyuntilt
heendof2021 ,driv
enbyt heneed
forcr editr esumpt ion.

Ther eal estates ect or,al

sos t
ronglyimpact edbyt hecr is
is,s awi ts
assetsl os ev alue, wi t
hhi ghr esi
dentialandcommer cialvacancy
rat
es .Ifhomeoffi ceact i
vit
ieshav ereplacedapor ti
onoft hewor k
doneatcor porateoffi ces,reducingtheneedf ors pace, t
he
avail
abi lityofres ident ialvacanciesisas sociat
edwi tht hemoder at
e
wors eni ngofhous ingcondi ti
onsinmos tcountr i
es.
Automobi leproduct ionrecor dedlargelos sesin2020, wit
h
product ionabout1 0% bel owt he201 9number s.Others ector sof
cons umpt iongoodswer eal soaffectedbutal r
eadyr eportrecov eryof
l
os sesi nt hes efirstmont hsof2021 .Thepr oduct i
onofmedi cines
dir
ect lylink edt ot heCOVI D-19'
streatment ,aswel lasthev acci ne,
boos tedt hepr oduct i
onoft hepharmaceut icalindus tr
ywor ldwi de,
whos es har esint hes ectorclosed2020wi thahi kear ound5% -
bett
ert hananyot hers ectorbutwi thnos i
gnif
icantgai ns ofar .
 28
Speci
fi
caspectsofthesectorandthet
argetcompanyoft
his
st
udyinthecontextofScenari
o1:

Def i
neacompanyorbus ines suni ttobeanal y zed.I
fyoupr ef
er,the
nameoft heorgani zat
ioncanbek eptconfident i
al,
calli
ngit
CompanyX. I
ftheor ganizationhasmul ti
plefrontsofact i
on,f
ocus
therefl
ect i
onar oundamor elimiteds etofs egment s,foramor e
viableanalysi
s. Descri
bebel ow, i
ns omedet ail
, whatyouandy our
team believecanhappent hroughout2020andear l
y2021i nyour
companyandi ny oureconomi cs ectorINTHESCENARI O1
CONTEXT;t hes einputswi llbei mpor tantformaki ngt hedecisi
ons
tocome. Wes ugges tyout oent erpr edict
ionsf oratleastthepoints
highli
ghtedbel ow. Consideringt heSCENARI O1CONTEXT ,whatis
youras sessmentof :

Impactoft
hecri
si
sov ert
hegros
srevenueandnetresul
tsofyour
companyandtheothercompani
esinyoursect
ori
nt hecont
extof
Scenari
o1:
 29
Impactoft
hecr
isi
sov ert
hes
uppl
iersandcust
omersofyour
companyandothercompani
esi
ny oursect
ori
nthecont
extof
Scenari
o1:
 30
Str
ategi
crefl
ect
ionex
erci
se:Whatdeci
sionsshoul
dyourcompany
mak efr
om May2020andlatert
hisy
earunti
l2021t
ofaceScenar
io1
descri
bedabove?Atl
eastconsi
dert
hefoll
owingques
tions
:

1
.Whatshouldbetheexpect
edimpactony
ourcompanyandy
our
s
ect
or,
consider
ingScenari
o1?

2.Shoul
dwecutcompanyspendi
ng?I
nwhichareas
?Atwhatl
evel
?
Orshoul
dweexpandinv
est
ment s
?Inwhi
chareas?I
nwhatway?

3.Whatini
ti
ati
ves
,pr
oject
sorbus
ines
suni
tss
houl
dbedeact
ivat
ed
underScenar
io1?

4.Whatini
ti
ati
ves,
proj
ect
sorbus
ines
suni
tss
houl
dbecr
eat
ed
underScenar
io1?

5.Whats
truct
ural
changesi
ntechnol
ogi
es,pr
ocesses
,and
res
our
cesshouldwepromot
e,consi
deri
ngScenar
io1?

I
fy ouwish,addnewques ti
onstobedebat ed.
Now, s
tar
ta
discus
sionont henextpr
oposeds cenari
osand,att
heend,el
abor
ate
theRobus tSt
rategi
essuggest
ionsforyourcompany.
 31
Scenari
o2–Persist
entpandemi
candr
ight
governmentmeasures
I
tisMay2021 ,18monthsaft
erthes tar toft heCOVI D-19Pandemi cin
China.Unl i
keotherCoronavi
rusmut at ionst hathumanityhasfaced
i
nthepas t,COVID-19hasshowni ts
el ft obemor elas
ting,
prolonging
t
hemos tacutemomentoft hecr i
sis
, unt ilMay2020. Atthi
smoment ,
t
hef ir
stvaccinesproducedagainstCOVI D- 19arebei
ngdis t
ri
buted
i
ndi fferentcountri
esintheworld,prior i
tizi
ngheal t
hprofessi
onals,
t
heel derlyandothergroupsmos tvul ner abletothedisease.

Themos tst
r i
ngentformsofl ockdownwer eimplement edinmos t
countriesbetweenFebr uaryandJ une2020. Aft
erthisperiod,oneby
oneoft hecount ri
esint hewor l
dcanpr oceedt othes econdphas eof
rest
ricti
veactions,i
nwhi chVer t
icalI
solati
on,al
socal l
edIntell
igent
Isol
ation,al
lowedagr adualreturntonor mali
ty.
Theendoft otal
i
s ol
ationmar kedthebegi nningofal ongper i
odinwhi chcont agion
preventionproceduresr emainedhi gh.Peoplewer eabletor et
urnt o
thei
rdai l
yroutinesbet weenJ ul
yandAugus t2020, butthe
preventionandt esti
ngr outi
necont i
nuedf orseveralmonths .Only
contami nat
edpeopl ewer ekeptinisol
ation,asit
uationthat
conti
nuesunt i
lthi
stoday .

Themaj ori
tyoft hepopul at
ionalreadyhasnat uralresistancet othe
vir
usandt hemos tsever
ecas esfoundr easonabl yadequat e
condi t
ionsofcar eintheexpandedhos pit
al networ k.Onl yin
emer gingcount ri
esdidthecol l
apseoft heheal t
hs ys
tem l astlonger.
Dev elopedcount ri
eswer ethefir
stt oov ercomet hemos tacut e
phas eofthecr isi
sandwer eablet opr ov i
deequi pmentt oemer ging
count ri
es,es peciall
yinLati
nAmer ica,Af r
icaandAs i
a. Foll
owi ngt he
exampl eofwhatwasdonei nChi na, government sindi fferent
count ri
escr eatedmechani smst ocont rolmobi li
tyt hr
oughcel l phone
applicati
ons ,bywhi chpeopl ewhohav ealreadyr ecov eredcoul d
havegr eaterf reedom ofmov ementcompar edt ot hepopul at
ion
that’
ss ti
ll
s us cepti
ble.
 32
Thefirstmonthsofcri
si
swer ehardandbr oughtmanychal l
engest o
manager sofpubli
candpr i
vateorganizati
onsaroundt heworld.Af
ter
a50% dr opinthefir
stmonthsoft hecrisi
s,thestockexchangesof
developedcountri
esrecoveredandclos edthey ear2020withlosses
around1 5%.Withtheoffici
aldecreethatthePandemi cwasunder
control
,inDecember2020, i
nvestorsreturnedtopr os
pect
oppor t
unit
iesandthestocksstar
tedthisy ear2021wi t
hexpressi
ve
gains.

Thegl obal economywass tagnanti n2020, dr oppi ng- 2%, agains t

+3.4% gr owt hin201 9. Wi thl argev ariati
onsbet weencount ri
es ,
global unempl oymentr eached1 1 % att heendof2020, against7.2%
attheendof201 9.Fort hi sy ear, 2021 ,theex pect ationi sthatatl east
partoft hepeopl ewhol os ttheirj obswi l
lbeabl et or eturntot he
l
abormar k et.Social
pr ot ectionmeas ures,es pecial l
yr elat
edt o
unempl oy ment ,guarant eedf oral argepar toft hisj obles s
popul ation, accesstoes s ential publ icresour cesf ort heirsurvival
throughout2020andi nt hebegi nni ngof2021 .Thehumani t
arian
crisi
sr eachedmor es eriousl evelsonl yinlow- incomecount r
ies,
whi chr ecei vedmoder ateas s i
stancef rom internat ional
organi zations .

Additi
onall
y,i
nv est
ment smadei nfavorofeconomi cdev el
opment
conti
nuati
on, publi
cspendi ngros esi
gni f
icantl
y.Mos tOECDmember
countri
esnowhav epubl i
cdef i
cit
swel labov etheirannual GDP,with
thegovernment sofJapan, Greece,It
aly,Por t
ugal,theUni t
edStates,
France,Spai
n, Canada, t
heUni tedKingdom, Slovenia, Aust
ri
aand
Hungaryowi ngmor et hantwicei t
sannual GDP. Stil
lfarfr
om being
abletorai
set axesorcuts pending,gov er
nment sareatt heli
mitof
thei
rcapacitytohonorcommi t
ment swi t
houthav ingt oresortt
oan
i
ncreaseinthemonet arybase, compr omisinginfl
ation.
 33
TheCommuni cati
onT echnologys ector,ont heotherhand, benefit
ed
from t hecr isisandgr ewbyar ound25% i n2020. I
nt hesefirs
t
mont hsof2021 ,t
echnol ogy-basedcompani escont i
nuedt oex pand
mar ket s,mot i
v at
edbyt heneedf ortheircus tomerstoupdat etheir
i
nt ernal (collaborators)andex ternal(customer sands upplier
s )
relati
ons hi ps oluti
ons.Int hewak eoft hi
sdev el
opment ,several
mar ket sas soci at
edwi thCommuni cati
onT echnologygai ned
strengt h,s uchasdi gi
tal ent
ertai
nment ,
onlinegames ,e-
commer ce
etc.Thef inanci alsect
or ,als
oaffect edbyt hecr isi
sin2020, is
ex pect edt oex pands tronglyuntilt
heendof2021 ,driv
enbyt heneed
forcr editr ecov ery
.

Thereal est
ates ector,al
sos tronglyimpactedbythecris
is,sawit
s
assetslosevalue, wit
hhi ghr esi
dential
andcommer ci
alvacancy
rat
es.Ifhomeoffi ceact i
vit
ieshav erepl
acedapor ti
onofthewor k
doneatcor porateoffi ces,reducingtheneedf orspace,t
he
avail
abil
ityofr
es identialvacanciesisassociat
edwiththemoderate
worseningofhous ingcondi t
ionsinmos tcountri
es.

Automobi l
eproduct i
onrecor dedlargeloss
esi n2020, with
productionabout1 5% belowt hefi
guresfor2019.Others ect orsof
consumergoodswer eal soaffectedbutal r
eadyr eportedr ecov er
yof
l
os s
esi nt hesefir
stmont hsof2021 .Theproducti
onofmedi cine
dir
ectlylinkedt otheCOVI D-19'
streat
ment, aswellast hev accine,
boostedt hepr oducti
onoft hepharmaceuticali
ndus tr
ywor l
dwi de,
whos eshar esinthes ectorclosed2020wi thanincr easeofar ound
10% -bet tert
hananyot hers ect
orbutwi t
houtanys i
gni f
icantgainso
far
.
 34
Speci
fi
cas
pectsofthesect
orandt
het
argetcompanyoft
hiss
tudy
i
nthecont
extofScenar
io2:

Choos eacompanyorbus inessuni ttor evi

ew. Thenameoft he
organiz ati
oncanbek eptconfident i
al,call
ingi t‘CompanyX. ’I
fthe
organiz ati
onchos enhasmul t
iplefrontsofact i
on, f
ocusy our
discus sionons peci fi
cs egmentgr oups ,maki ngt heex aminati
on
vi
abl e.Gi veadet aileddes cri
ptionofwhaty ouandy ourteam bel i
eve
willhappent hroughout2020andear ly2021i ny ourcompanyandi n
youreconomi csect or,ACCORDI NGTOSCENARI O2;t heseinput s
willbeneces saryf orthedeci sionst hatmus tbet akenasdes cribed
below. Wes ugges ty ouaddf utureper spectivest othepoi nt
sbel ow.
Cons ider i
ngSCENARI O2, whati sy ouras sess mentof :

TheImpactoft
hecr
isi
sonthegr
ossr
evenueandnetr
esul
tsofyour
companyandtheot
hercompani
esi
nyoursect
ori
nthecontex
tof
Scenar
io2:
 35
I
mpactoft
hecri
si
sonyourcompany'
ssuppl
ier
sandcustomer
sand
ot
hercompani
esi
nyoursect
ori
nthecontex
tofScenar
io2:
 36
Str
ategi
crefl
ect
ionex
erci
se:Whatdeci
sionsshoul
dyourcompany
mak efr
om May2020andlatert
hisy
earunti
l2021t
ofaceScenar
io2
descri
bedabove?Atl
eastconsi
dert
hefoll
owingques
tions
:

1
.Whatshouldbetheexpect
edi
mpactony
ourcompanyandy
our
s
ect
or,
consider
ingScenari
o2?

2.Shoul
dwecutcompanyspendi
ng?I
nwhichareas
?Atwhatl
evel
?
Orshoul
dweexpandinv
est
ment s
?Inwhi
chareas?I
nwhatway?

3.Whatini
ti
ati
ves
,pr
oject
sorbus
ines
suni
tss
houl
dbedeact
ivat
ed
underScenar
io2?

4.Whatini
ti
ati
ves
,pr
oject
sorbus
ines
suni
tss
houl
dbecr
eat
ed
underScenar
io2?

5.Whats
truct
ural
changesi
ntechnol
ogi
es,pr
ocesses
,and
res
our
cesshouldwepromot
e,consi
deri
ngScenar
io2?

I
fy ouwish,addnewques ti
onstobedebat ed.
Now, s
tar
ta
discus
sionont henextpr
oposeds cenari
osand,att
heend,el
abor
ate
theRobus tSt
rategi
essuggest
ionsforyourcompany.
Scenari
o3-Persist
entpandemi
cand 37
i
nsuffici
entgover
nmentmeasures
Iti
sMay2021 ,1
8mont hsafterthes t
artoft heCOVI D-1
9Pandemi cin
China.UnlikeotherCor onav i
rusmutationst hathumani tyhasf aced
i
nt hepas t
,COVI D- 19pr ovedt obemor el asti
ng,prolongingthe
mos tacutemomentoft hecr isi
suntilMay2020. Thelackof
coordinati
onofgov ernmentact i
onsatal ocal andinternati
onal level
createdadditi
onal difficult
iesincombat i
ngcr isi
s.Rightnow, thef i
rst
vaccinesproducedagai nstCOVI D-1
9ar ebei ngdi s
tri
butedi n
differentcountr
iesar oundt hewor l
d,priori
tizi
ngheal t
hpr ofessionals
,
theelderl
y,andot hergr oupsmos tvulnerablet othedisease.

Restri
ct ivemeas uresarev ariedacr osscount r
ies,wi ths ome
government signor ingcal l
sfrom t hes cientifi
ccommuni tyand
i
mpl ement i
ngt hel ockdownl ateori ns
uffici entl
y .
Dur ingt hef i
rsthalf
of2020, thePandemi chasev ol veduncont roll
ablyins ev eral
countries .Ev ens o, st
ri
ngentf ormsofl ock downwer ei mpl ement edin
mos tcount r
iesbet weenFebr uar yandJ uly2020. Aftert hisper iod,
onebyone, thecount r
iesint hewor l
dcanpr oceedt ot hes econd
phaseofr estri
ctiveact i
ons ,i
nwhi chVer t
ical I
s ol
ation, alsocal led
Int
ell
igentI solation,all
owedagr adual r
etur ntonor mal .Theendof
tot
al i
s olationmar kedt hebegi nningofal ongper i
odi nwhi ch
contagi onpr eventionpr ocedur esremai nedhi gh. Peopl ewer eable
toretur nt ot hei
rdai lyroutinesbet weenAugus tandSept ember
2020, butt hepr eventionandt es ti
ngr outinecont i
nuedf ors everal
mont hs .Onl ycont ami natedpeopl ewer ek eptini solation, ina
sit
uationt hatcont inuest oday .

Themaj ori
tyofthepopul ati
onnowhasnat uralres i
stancetothe
vir
usandt hemos tseri
ouscas esf oundr easonablyadequat e
condi t
ionsofcar eintheex pandedhos pitalnetwor k.Onlyin
emer gingcount r
iesdidt hecol laps eoft heheal t
hs ystem l
astlonger
.
Thedev el
opedcount r
iest hatmadet hemos tmi stakesincombat ing
Pandemi cwereal sotheonest hatt ookt hel onges ttogetoutoft he
wor stphaseoft hecr i
sis.Fewdev elopedcount r
ieshav ebeenabl et
o
provideequi pmentt oemer gingcount r
ies ,especiallyinLatin
Amer ica,Afri
caandAs ia,alsopr ol
ongingt heprobl emsi nthese
regions .
Cont r
olmeas ur esov ert hepopul ati
ontomoni t
orthe
mov ementoft hos ewhoar esti
ll susceptibletothedi seasehave
helpeds omecount ri
esi nisolationtor es umenor mal i
tyinaqui ck
er
manner .
 38
Thefirs tmonthsoft hecris
iswer edifficultandbroughtchall
engesto
manager sofpublicandpr iv
ateor ganizati
onsaroundthewor l
d.Aft
er
50% dr opi nthefi
rs tmonthsoft hecrisi
s,thest
ockex changesof
developedcount r
iesrecoveredandcl os edtheyear2020wi t
hlosses
around1 5%.Wi t
ht heoffici
aldecr eethatthePandemi cwasunder
control,inFebruary2021 ,i
nvestorsreturnedtoprospect
oppor tunit
iesandt heshareshav ealreadybeent radi
ngwi t
h
si
gnificantincreasess i
nceMar ch2021 .

Theglobal economyent eredar eces si

oni n2020, down4%, agains t
3.4% growt hin201 9.Wi t
hl argev ar
iati
onsbet weencount r
ies,global
unempl oymentr eached1 4% att heendof2020, against7.2% att he
endof201 9.Fort hisyear2021 ,i
tisexpect edthatatl eastpar tofthe
peoplewhol os ttheirjobswi l
lbeabl etor et
urnt othel abormar k et.
Socialprotect i
onmeas ures,especiall
yr elat
edt ounempl oyment ,
guaranteedf oral argepar tofthisunempl oyedpopul ationacces st o
essenti
al publ i
cr esourcesf ortheirsurvivalthroughout2020andi n
thebeginni ngof2021 .Thehumani t
ariancr i
sisreachedmor es erious
l
ev el
sinlow- i
ncomecount ri
esandal soamongt hemos tvulnerable
populati
onsi ns everaldev elopedcount ries,whichhasbeen
recei
vingmoder ateas sistancefrom internati
onal organizati
ons .

Additi
onal ly,withinvestment smadei nfavoroft her es umpt i
onof
economi cdev elopment ,publicspendingr oses i
gni ficantly
. Mos t
OECDmembercount ri
esnowhav epubl i
cdef i
citswel labov ethei
r
annual GDP, withthegov ernment sofJapan, Greece, I
taly,Portugal
,
theUni tedSt ates,France, Spain,Canada, theUni tedKi ngdom,
Slovenia, Austri
aandHungar yowi ngmor et hant wi cei t
sannual
GDP. Stillfarfr
om bei ngabl etor ai
setaxesorcuts pendi ng,
government sar eatthelimi toftheircapacitytohonorcommi t
ments
withouthav i
ngt or esor
ttoani ncreaseinthemonet ar ybas e,
compr omi s i
nginflati
on.
 39
TheAv i
at ionsector,oneoft hemos taffectedbyt hecr i
sis
, wasalso
oneoft hos ethatreceivedt hemos tresourcesfrom gov ernment s
.At
theendof2020, i
nternationalfli
ghtswer es ti
ll
atl evel
s50% bel ow
thoserecor dedatt heendof201 9,withimpact sont heent i
rechain
ofprof
es s i
onalandl eisuretour i
sm. Thebegi nningof2021l it
tl
eby
l
itt
lepres entsgoodnumber sf orthehos pi
talit
y,leis
ureandt ourism
productionchai n,whichs houldcloset hi
sy earof2021r ecoveri
ng
partofwhati thadl os tin2020.

TheCommuni cati
onT echnologys ector,ont heotherhand, benefit
ed
from t hecr isisandgr ewbyar ound25% i n2020. I
nt hesefirs
t
mont hsof2021 ,t
echnol ogy-basedcompani escont i
nuedt oex pand
mar ket s,mot i
v at
edbyt heneedf ortheircus tomerstoupdat etheir
i
nt ernal (collaborators)andex ternal(customer sands upplier
s )
relati
ons hi ps oluti
ons.Int hewak eoft hi
sdev el
opment ,several
mar ket sas soci at
edwi thCommuni cati
onT echnologygai ned
strengt h,s uchasdi gi
tal ent
ertai
nment ,
onlinegames ,e-
commer ce
etc.Thef inanci alsect
or ,als
oaffect edbyt hecr isi
sin2020, is
ex pect edt oex pands tronglyuntilt
heendof2021 ,driv
enbyt heneed
forcr editr esumpt ion.

Therealest
atesect or
,alsostr
onglyi
mpact edbyt hecr is
is,s
awt he
val
ueofitsasset
sl osev al
ue,wit
hhighr esi
denti
al andcommer ci
al
unemploymentrates .I
fhomeoffi ceact
ivit
ieshaver eplacedapor t
ion
oftheworkdoneatcor porat
eoffices,r
educingtheneedf orspace,
theavai
labi
li
tyofres i
denti
alvacanci
esisas soci
atedwi ththe
moderateworseni
ngofhous ingcondit
ionsinmos tcountri
es.

Thepr oduct i
onofaut omobi lesrecordedlargelossesin2020, with
productionabout1 5% bel owt henumbersof201 9.Others ectorsof
consumergoodswer eal soaffect edbutalreadyrepor trecoveryof
l
os s
esi nt hesefir
s tmont hsof2021 .Theproducti
onofmedi cines
dir
ectlylinkedt otheCOVI D-19'str
eatment,aswell asthev accine,
boostedt hepr oductionoft hephar maceuti
calindus t
rywor l
dwi de,
whos es haresinthes ectorcl osed2020wi thahikear ound1 0% -
bett
ert hananyot hers ectorbutwi thoutanys i
gnif
icantgai nsof ar.
 40
Speci
fi
cas
pectsofthesect
orandt
het
argetcompanyoft
hiss
tudy
i
nthecont
extofScenar
io3:

Choos eacompanyorbus i
nessunittoanal yze.Thenameoft he
organizati
oncanbek eptconf i
denti
al
, andy oucancal li
t‘Company
X.
’Iftheorganiz
ati
onchos enhasmul tiplefrontsofaction, f
ocusyour
analysisonspecif
icsegmentgr oups,maki ngt heex aminationvi
able.
Giveadet ail
eddescriptionofwhaty ouandy ourwor kforcebeli
eve
willhappenthroughout2020andear l
y2021 ,
iny ourcompanyandi n
youreconomi csector,ACCORDI NGTOTHESCENARI O3;t hes
e
i
nput swillbenecessar yforthedecisionsthatmus tbetak enas
describedbelow.Wes ugges tyouaddf uturepers pecti
vest othe
pointsbelow.ConsideringSCENARI O3, whati sy ouras s
es smentof:

TheImpactoft
hecr
isi
sonthegr
ossr
evenueandnetr
esul
tsofyour
companyandtheot
hercompani
esi
nyoursect
ori
nthecontex
tof
Scenar
io3:
 41
TheImpactoft
hecri
sisonthesuppli
ersandcust
omersofyour
companyandothercompaniesi
ny oursect
ori
nthecont
extof
Scenar
io3:
 42
Str
ategi
crefl
ect
ionex
erci
se:Whatdeci
sionsshoul
dyourcompany
mak efr
om May2020andlatert
hisy
earunti
l2021t
ofaceScenar
io3
descri
bedabove?Atl
eastconsi
dert
hefoll
owingques
tions
:

1
.Whatshouldbetheexpect
edi
mpactony
ourcompanyandy
our
s
ect
or,
consider
ingScenari
o3?

2.Shoul
dwecutcompanyspendi
ng?I
nwhichareas
?Atwhatl
evel
?
Orshoul
dweexpandinv
est
ment s
?Inwhi
chareas?I
nwhatway?

3.Whatini
ti
ati
ves
,pr
oject
sorbus
ines
suni
tss
houl
dbedeact
ivat
ed
underScenar
io3?

4.Whatini
ti
ati
ves
,pr
oject
sorbus
ines
suni
tss
houl
dbecr
eat
ed
underScenar
io3?

5.Whats
truct
ural
changesi
ntechnol
ogi
es,pr
ocesses
,and
res
our
cesshouldwepromot
e,consi
deri
ngScenar
io3?

Ifyouwish,addnewquest
ionstobedebat ed.Wheny ouar
edone,
elabor
atetheRobustSt
rat
egiessugges
tionsforyourcompany
.
 43
RobustSt
rat
egi
es

Eachofthe3Scenar iospr esentedabov eoffer sdi fferent

perspect
ivesforcompani esineachs ector .
Notethat,whendev elopingther ef
lect i
onsf ory ourcompany ,that
manyoft hedecisionst obemadear es imilarint he3s cenarios .
In
additi
on,i
tisalsopos si
bletobui l
ds etsofdeci si
onst hat,
wit
hagr eaterorless erdegreeofadj ustmentt hr oughouti ts
i
mpl ementati
on,maybeappr opr i
atef orthedi ffer ents cenari
ost hat
mayoccur .Ther
efore, iti
snowupt oy out os ummar i
zebel ow,the
so-cal
ledRobus tStrategiesofy ourcompany ,thedeci si
onst haty our
companymus ttakenowi nor dertofacet hiscrisis.

Gui
del
inesf
orWor
kSubmi
ssi
on

Thegoal oft hi
sStrategyWor kshopist oofferanopport
unityfor
compani esfrom differentsectorstorefl
ectonthecurr
entcris
is
contextandi tsst
rategicimpli
cations.Byinvi
ti
ngyouandy ourgroup
todevelopt hisexerci
se, wetrytoaccompl i
shourrol
ein
dis
semi nati
ngr el
ev antknowledgei nManagementandweal sooffer
acontributi
ons ot hatthecompani esinvol
vedcanfacethe
unprecedent eddifficult
iescausedbyt hiscri
si
swit
hbet t
erchances
ofsucces s
.
 44
Whocanpar
tici
pat
e?

ThisWor
kshopi
sopent
opr
ofes
sional
sands
tudent
sfr
om di
ffer
ent
areas
.

How t
opar
tici
pat
e?

Part
icipati
onisfree.Theinterest
edpar t
ys houl
dwat chthe
presentati
onvideo,downl oadthise-
bookands endt hei
rworki
n
PDFans weri
ngt heques t
ionsabove,identi
fyi
ngt heparti
ci
pant
swith
thefol
lowinginformation:email,
contactphone, academic
background( mos tr
ecentt i
tl
e),
companywher ey ouwork,posi
ti
on.
Pagelimit:Thereisnos pecif
icli
mit,
buti ti
sesti
mat edthatagood
works houldbebet ween4and1 5pagesl ong.

Deadl
i
nefors
endingyourwor
k:Apr
il30t
h,2020t
otheemai
l
i
nfo@i
bs-
americas
.com

Cert
ifi
cat
eofWorkshopPart
ici
pat
ion:Al
lpar
ti
ci
pantswhos
ubmi
t
thei
rworkunti
lApr
il30,
2020will
recei
veacert
if
icat
eof
part
ici
pat
ion.

Awardforthebes tworks:TheAcademicBoardofI
BSAmer icaswill
offer20s cholar
shipsworthbetweenUS$1,500andUS$4,000f or
thebestwor ks.
Ther esul
twil
lbecommunicatedonourYouTube
channel
,onI BSAmer i
cassoci
alnet
works,
andalsobyemail t
ot he
winners
.
Bi
bli
ogr
aphy
45

J
ohnsHopki
nsHos
pit
al-ht
tps
://
cor
onav
irus
.j
hu.
edu/
map.
html

BBC-ht
tps
://
www.
bbc.
com/
news
/bus
ines
s-51
706225

TheGuar di
an-
htt
ps :
//www.t
heguar
dian.
com/
bus
ines
s/2020/
apr
/02/
us-
unempl
oyment
-cor
onav
ir
us-economy

Fi
nanci
alTi
mes-
ht
tps:
//www.f
t.
com/
cont
ent
/af
a68a66-
5d7
4-1
1ea-
8033-
fa40a0d65a98

OECD-ht
tps
://
dat
a.oecd.
org/
gga/
gener
al-
gov
ernment
-debt
.ht
m#i
ndi
cat
or-
char
t

IMF-
htt
ps:
//www.
i
mf.
org/
ext
ernal
/dat
amapper
/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/
OEMDC/
ADVEC/
WEOWORLD

TheNewYor kTimes-
htt
ps:/
/www.nyti
mes.
com/ i
nter
acti
ve/
2020/04/03/wor
ld/
cor
onav
irus
-fl
att
en-
the-
c
urve-
count
ri
es.ht
ml?r
efer
ri
ngSource=art
icl
eShare

Uni
tedNat
ions-ht
tps
://
www.
un.
org/
en/
cor
onav
irus

BusinessInsi
der-
htt
ps :
//www. bus
ines
sins
ider
.
com/
cor
onav
irus
-pandemi
c-t
imel
i
ne-
his
tor
y-maj
or-
ev
ents-2020-3

SCHWARTZ,
P.Thear
toft
hel
ongv
iew.Unabr
idged,
2000.

GODET
,M.
From ant
ici
pat
iont
oact
ion.
Par
is:Unes
co,
1994.

THOMAS,Charl
esW.Lear
ningf
rom I
magi
ningt
heYear
sAgo.
Planni
ngRev
iew,
p.
6-
11,
mai
/j
un,1994.

DIFFENBACH, J
ohn.Corpor
ateinvi
ronment
alanal
i
sisi
nlar
geUScor
por
ati
ons
.Long
RangePlanni
ng:vol
16,no.3,p.
1 07
-11
6,1
983

GLUECK,Wil
li
am.Busi
nesspol
icys
trat
egyi
nfor
mat
ionandmanagementact
ion.
NewYork:McGraw-Hi
l
l,1
976.

UTTERBACK,James
.Envi
ronment
alanal
ysi
sandf
orecas
tingi
nSt
rat
egi
c
management
.NewJers
ey:BrownandCompany,1
979.