Social impacts of land use change

Jacki Schirmer
Research Fellow
Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University
Co-operative Research Centre for Forestry
jacki.schirmer@anu.edu.au
 Social impacts – setting the scene

Social impacts are complicated:

A social or economic change will impact different people
in different ways
• E.g. change in land prices

Impacts of plantation expansion vary depending on:
• The type of social changes caused by plantation expansion
• How these changes are experienced by different people and
groups
• How social change, and experiences of it, shift over time
• Other social change happening at the same time
 Land use change to plantations
associated with many questions
about social and economic impact…

Employment
• How much employment does the plantation sector generate? Where is the
employment located? What sort of jobs are there? How does the employment
compare to alternative land uses? What are the flow-on impacts?

Rural population and businesses
• Does expansion of plantation estate have an effect on rural population levels?
On the type of people living in a region? On service provision (inc.
membership of rural fire brigades)? On land prices?

Rural culture and landscape
• Does expansion of plantations affect the culture of rural communities and
rural landscapes?

Neighbours
• What impacts does establishment of plantations have on neighbouring
landholders (social and economic)

Agriculture
• Will expansion of plantations affect viability of agriculture in a region?
 Perceptions about social and economic
impacts of plantations are diverse

Examples of different views about population impacts

expressed by landholders in plantation expansion
regions of western Victoria and south-east South
Australia:

You are taking family farms out of production … For every family
that leaves it causes an adverse impact on four others, so there is
already a downward spiral in so many of these communities and
if you are taking family farms out of the picture, you are going
to exacerbate … the decline in rural population

Well most of the land that’s bought in this area, the blue gum
company, they sell off the houses with a small portion of land.
So the houses are still there and there are still people in the
houses. So I don’t think that it should impact greatly on the
community as far as numbers of people in the area go.
 Perceptions of impact of plantation
expansion on rural population
Source: Williams, K.; Dunn, C.; Ford, R.; Anderson, N. 2008. Understanding resident’s views on
land use change. CRC for Forestry, Hobart. URL: http://www.landusechange.net.au

100%
90% 28 18 27
80% Increase
70% 58
60% 26
50% 57 44 No change
40%
30% 21
20% 46
25 29 Decrease
10% 21
0%

Development
Cropping

Dairying
plantations
Blue gum

Residential
Rural

Rural population
 Perceptions about other social and economic issues
(2004 mail survey of 500 residents in Bombala region, NSW by Julia Pickworth)

Plantations bring new people into

23 18 56 4
the area

Plantations cause people to leave

28 17 48 7
the area

There is a growth in population

39 16 37 9
associated with plantation jobs

There is a loss of community

services because of people leaving 36 22 35 8
the area due to plantations

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Disagree Neutral Agree Don't know

 The plantation industry has created
career opportunities and increased 22 12 60 6
employment in your region

Pine plantations are the economic

42 19 36 4
future of your area
Economic perceptions

Plantations have negative impacts on

26 19 48 7
other industries

There have been changes to the price

29 82 7
of land as a result of plantations

Plantation companies buying land

provide farmers with a way to leave the 10 15 73 3
land

0 20 40 60 80 100
Percentage

Disagree Neutral Agree Don't know

 Going beyond perceptions – what do we
know about social impacts?

Employment

Land prices

Population, community groups

Identity
 How much employment?
Five studies since 2000 in major plantation growing regions
Direct employment:
• 0.2-0.3 FTE/100ha growing plantations
(softwood and hardwood)
• 1.0-1.6 FTE/100ha harvesting and processing
(softwood)
Flow-on employment estimates vary depending on model:
• Usually 1.3-2.3 indirect jobs for every direct job
 Employment compared to other industries

One study compared employment generated by plantation forestry at three

stages, wheat, cattle, sheep, dairy alternative land uses (Petheram et al. 2000)
• Least employment in wheat, most in dairy
• New data will be available early 2009, with up-to-date comparison – similar
results likely
 Sector and location of
employment?

For mature softwood plantation industry, approx. 2/3 employment in
processing, 1/3 in growing + harvest + haulage to mill

Most plantation sector employees live in regional towns, some
smaller towns also have high dependence on forestry

When plantations expand, there may be a shift of population & job
availability from smaller rural localities to regional towns & centres –
depends largely on where processing located

Change in traditional agriculture also resulting in similar shift,
particularly in cropping regions
 Location of employment – South
West Slopes, NSW
(Schirmer et al. (2005b)

A region with a mature 110,000ha softwood plantation estate

Over 1991 to 2004, volume harvested and processed more than doubled
as more plantations reached maturity and were harvested & replanted

Plantations mostly in Tumut, Tumbarumba, Holbrook, Gundagai, Wagga
Wagga; processing in & near Albury, Holbrook, Humula, Tumut,
Tumbarumba, Wagga Wagga

92-94% of direct employment generated by plantations located within
South West Slopes over 1991-2003 (up to point of processed products
leaving mill door; 1,680 direct jobs in 2002-03)

Some consolidation of employment around particular centres over this
period (mostly shifting to Tumut, Tumbarumba)
 Land prices

Does plantation forestry displace other land uses through

influencing land prices?

Schirmer et al. (2005a) found:

• In Great Southern region, plantation forestry had a strong
influence on land price for land suitable for plantations
• Other factors influenced price growth on other types of land
• Even in years of highest demand, in plantation regions 50-70%
of land sales were to land uses other than plantations
 Population impacts – results from Land
Use Change study

Studying impacts of land use change in the

south-east South Australia and south-west
Victoria See www.landusechange.net.au

Examined impacts of leasing and selling land to
plantation companies on rural population, via:
1) Mail survey of landholders who changed land use to
plantation/farm forestry; response rate: 60.3%
2) Data collection from plantation companies: Collected data on
estimated. 78% of properties leased or sold to companies in the
region since the mid-1990s
 Findings on population change
Farm Leased Sold
forestry property property
% of properties inhabited before 50-55% 60-70% 44-52%
land use change
If inhabited: % on which people left 0% 10% 75%
as result of land use change
If people left: How often did new N/A 45-55% 50-80%
people shift in?
Net population impact No -3% -7% to
change -19%
Other things to consider: Previous residents sometimes shifted to new farms,
sometimes to local towns, occasionally to retire some distance away. There may be
some further changes to population related to people who worked on the property (as
well as those who lived on the property)
 Population impacts – what would have
happened with no plantations?

When rural population levels compared over time in

rural regions experiencing plantation expansion:
• Plantation regions do not lose more population than other
rural regions
• Rural population declining in many rural regions – whether
or not plantation expansion occurring
 Population – does expansion of plantation
estate impact on rural population?

Great Southern region, WA (Schirmer et

al. 2005a):

Rapid plantation expansion from 1990s

By 2001:
• over 127,000 ha plantation in 3 Shires
• 93% blue gum
• plantations established on 10-25% of
agricultural land

No evidence plantation expansion
causes higher decline in rural
population than other rural land use
change

The 3 LGAs with high plantation
expansion experienced less rural
population decline on average than
rest of the Great Southern region

This was most likely because these
LGAs have diverse economies
 Population impacts of mature plantation industry –
South West Slopes BRS study
• Plantation sector contributes to town population growth where have strong
processing sector (Tumut, Adelong, Tumbarumba)
• Also have more working age people in areas with high plantation processing
• When processing expands, may experience housing shortages

C h a n g e in p o p u la tio n o f d iffe re n t to w n s in th e S o u th W e s t S lo p e s

4
Percent change in town population 1996-

ga
ba
la

ta
irn

ng

ut
y

w
ty

ga

oo
ur

al

-2

lo

ut

ag
en

m
ca

lo
da
W
lb

at
br

rc
ru

Tu
de

W
H
ul
A

un

B
ol
2001

Ta
ba
la
C

ga
H
al

-4
G

m
W

ag
Tu

W
-6

-8

-1 0

-1 2

-1 4
Tow n
 What does this mean for impacts of
plantations on rural population?
• Expansion of large scale plantations lead to population
turnover, and to small population loss
• Expansion of processing can help stabilise rural town
populations, prevent decline
• Impact of population turnover depends on how new
residents living on plantation properties perceived
• Big impact on people’s lives when previous residents shift away
and new people shift onto properties, particularly if involves
shift from farmers to ‘rural lifestylers’
• Strategies to assist integration of new residents into
community can lessen any negative impacts
 Impacts on community group membership

Some – but not all – of those who shift away from plantation properties cease
membership of community group, fire brigade etc

Impact on community groups and services depends on whether new residents
join community groups, fire brigades

Graph below shows how many previous residents changed membership of rural
fire brigades as a result of land use change to plantations in the Green Triangle

Sold (n=19)
100 Leased (n=26)
90 Farm forestry (n=17)
80
Respondents (%)

Mix/don't know (n=8)

70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
No change Stopped Changed Don't know
Fire membership location
 Identity: How does introduction of plantation
forestry affect the culture and identity of rural
regions?

Several studies (e.g. Lane 1997, Kelly and Lymon 2000,

Petheram et al. 2000)

Documented range of views on impact of plantation expansion
on culture and identity of rural regions

All found that expansion of plantations changed people’s
perceptions of their region and the community in it

Some experienced these changes as negative, some as
positive

Quantitative studies typically find considerable variation in
perceptions of plantations(e.g. Pickworth 2005)

Members of rural communities do not have a single or
common belief about impacts on culture, identity
 Conclusions on social impacts of
plantation expansion

Impacts vary depending on nature of plantation industry

• Level and location of employment depends on type and extent of
plantation, type of downstream processing

Impacts vary depending on extent of plantation expansion

Current evidence suggests:
• Plantation industry can contribute considerable regional employment
when downstream processing located in region
• The employment generated per hectares may be lower than some
alternative land uses, and higher than others
• Plantation expansion often associated with population ‘turnover’ – new
people shifting into community; previous residents leaving property
• Some net loss of population – but similar levels to that occurring in
traditional agriculture
 More information on current research

‘Communities’ project of the Cooperative Research

Centre for Forestry www.crcforestry.com.au/

‘Land Use Change’ project
www.landusechange.net.au
 References
Kelly, G. and Lymon, K. 2000. To trees, or not to trees? An assessment of the social impacts of the plantation
industry on the Shire of Plantagenet. School of Psychology, Curtin University of Technology, Perth.
Lane, R., 1997. Frontiers of green: pine plantations and local communities. National Conference on
Australian Forest History. Australia's Ever-Changing Forests. Proceedings 155:165.
National Forest Inventory. 2004. National Plantation Inventory Update – March 2004. Bureau of Rural
Sciences, Canberra.
Petheram, J.; Patterson, A.; Williams, K.; Jenkin, B. & Nettle, R. (2000). Socioeconomic impact of changing
land use in South West Victoria. Institute of Land and Food Resources, University of Melbourne,
Melbourne. Online at www.gtplantations.org/publications
Pickworth, J. 2005. Community perceptions of pine plantations: A report based on a sample survey of
residents in the Bombala region of NSW. Report submitted as partial fulfilment of the Degree of Masters
of Environmental Science, School of Resources, Environment and Society – Australian National
University
Schirmer, J.; Parsons, M.; Charalambou, C.; and Gavran, M. 2005a. Socio-economic impacts of plantation
forestry in the Great Southern region of WA, 1991 to 2004. Report produced for FWPRDC Project
PN04.4007. Forest and Wood Products Research and Development Corporation, Melbourne
Schirmer, J.; Parsons, M.; Charalambou, C.; and Gavran, M. 2005b. Socio-economic impacts of plantation
forestry in the South West Slopes of NSW, 1991 to 2004. Report produced for FWPRDC Project
PN04.4007. Forest and Wood Products Research and Development Corporation, Melbourne