Forest Ecology and Management 376 (2016) 24–35

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Forest Ecology and Management

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/foreco

Spatial interpolators for improving the mapping of carbon stock of the

arboreal vegetation in Brazilian biomes of Atlantic forest and Savanna
Henrique Ferraco Scolforo a, Jose Roberto Soares Scolforo b,⇑, Jose Marcio de Mello b,
Carlos Rogerio de Mello c, Vinicius Augusto Morais d
a
Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, 2820 Faucette Dr., Campus Box 8001, Raleigh, North Carolina 27695, United States
b
Department of Forest Science, Federal University of Lavras, Campus Universitario, Campus Box 3037, LEMAF, Lavras, Minas Gerais 37200-000, Brazil
c
Department of Engineering, Federal University of Lavras, Campus Universitario, Campus Box 3037, DEG, Lavras, Minas Gerais 37200-000, Brazil
d
Department of Forest Science, Mato Grosso State University, Rod. MT 208, KM 147 - Jardim Tropical, Campus Box 324, Alta Floresta, Mato Grosso 78580-000, Brazil

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: The aim of this study was to map aboveground carbon stock of arboreal vegetation in the Savanna and
Received 10 January 2016 Atlantic forest biomes in Minas Gerais State, Brazil, in order to assess the best spatial technique for
Received in revised form 27 May 2016 mapping. The dataset was obtained from 148 forest fragments of these biomes. The best form of mapping
Accepted 31 May 2016
was based on statistical criteria and mapping quality. The exponential semivariogram model was selected
for conducting the study. The geographical model developed in this study for regression-kriging
application was fitted having as input longitude and biome variables, and, globally, has presented good
Keywords:
spatial behavior of the carbon stock distributed along the Minas Gerais State. From mapping carbon stock
Geostatistics
Regression
by different techniques, it was found that regression-kriging mapping was the most efficient. In addition,
Exponential as the semivariograms were fitted for each biome using kriging and co-kriging, it is possible to stand out
GIS the flexibility for using regression-kriging, including biome as a categorical variable in the geographical
model. Another result was the high correlation found between different forms of mapping, which adds
reliability for this study. Thus, it was concluded that the carbon stock distribution in the arboreal
vegetation of these two biomes is spatially structured. Ordinary kriging and co-kriging have presented
satisfactory results, however, regression-kriging has been more reliable for mapping and estimating
carbon stock distribution, in the Minas Gerais State.
Ó 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction Savanna biomes a total of 2,401 tree species, demonstrating the

Amazon, Semi-arid woodland, Atlantic forest, Savanna, Pampas,
Wetlands are the biomes that occur in Brazil, which is a country
with continental dimensions. Among the Brazilian States, Minas
Gerais (MG State) encompasses landscape variations ranging from
Savanna, Atlantic forest, and Semi-arid woodland, representing
57%, 41%, and 2% of the vegetation, respectively (Scolforo et al.,
2015).
The ‘‘Forest Inventory of Minas Gerais” (FI-MG), which was
developed by Federal University of Lavras in partnership with the
State Institute of Forests, generated scientific information
concerned with the quality of forest fragments in MG State. This
project reported for the Semi-arid woodland, Atlantic forest and
⇑ Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: hfscolfo@ncsu.edu (H.F. Scolforo), jscolforo@dcf.ufla.br
(J.R.S. Scolforo), josemarcio@dcf.ufla.br (J.M. de Mello), crmello@deg.ufla.br
(C.R. de Mello), vemorais@gmail.com (V.A. Morais).
richness of the State’s vegetation, especially for the Atlantic forest
and Savanna biomes, which represent almost the totality of the
vegetation found in the state (Oliveira Filho and Scolforo, 2008).
In the context of the FI-MG database, Scolforo et al. (2015) esti-
mated the aboveground carbon stock (C-stock) presents in the
arboreal vegetation of these three mentioned biomes. The average
values were 35.05, 45.73, 12.40 Mg/ha in Semi-arid woodland,
Atlantic forest and Savanna biomes, respectively. The study devel-
oped by Scolforo et al. (2015) calculated C-stock for MG State using
regression-kriging interpolation technique. However, as MG State
presents an area larger than France and Belgium together and a
great vegetational diversity, it becomes important to test which
interpolation technique provides the best estimates in order to
guide MG State to adopt the best public policies possible. Also it
is important to check if this interpolation technique presents
predictive ability, i.e., the technique is capable to facilitate the
interpretation of the results and also extrapolate the results for
every part of MG State easily.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2016.05.047
0378-1127/Ó 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
 H.F. Scolforo et al. / Forest Ecology and Management 376 (2016) 24–35
Remote sensing is usually applied to estimate C-stock, volume,
biomass, land use change and detection of burned areas. The
majority of values used by this technique are extracted from the
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and of satellite
bands (Acerbi Júnior et al., 2015). However, the information gener-
ated by remote sensing technique presents high cost-benefit and
degree of uncertainty (Houghton et al., 2001), since the use of this
technique requires field validation and the estimation quality
depends on the image scale, i.e., accurate images increase costs.
As long as these problems remain, Houghton et al. (2001) and
Constantini et al. (2012) pointed out that using interpolation
techniques or integrating remote sensing information with inter-
polators will result in a gain of accuracy.
Malhi et al. (2006) studying biomass in humid tropics used spa-
tial interpolation to understand how this variable varied with
regional-scale environmental factors. Li and Heap (2011) assessed
the performance of interpolation techniques using the data derived
from 53 comparative studies in environmental science, which
includes meteorology and water resources, ecology, agriculture,
soil science and marine environment. The authors observed from
all the evaluated techniques that, in general, the methods based
in geoestatistical approaches resulted in better performance for
mapping environmental quantities. Mishra et al. (2012) also sug-
gested that geostatistics can provide results more reliable. In other
words, the mapping of the environmental variables through geo-
statistical approaches result in confident information to support
public policy and management decisions.
Recent studies related to ordinary kriging have been developed
aiming to map environmental variables. Muukkonen et al. (2009)
applied this technique to study within-site spatial variation of
C-stock in the organic layer of boreal forest soils and Wan et al.
(2011) mapped the soil organic carbon (SOC) change in the arable
upland soils to address the impact of future climate change on SOC
in China.
Co-kriging has also been developed and, according to
Yamamoto and Landim (2013), can be defined as a spatial statisti-
cal procedure that estimates a set of several regionalized variables
based on the correlation between the target variable and another
that can explain the first reasonably, being a type of multivariate
version of the kriging process. Kunkel et al. (2011) applied
co-kriging and multiple linear regression to predict the spatial
distribution of soil C-stock across the watershed, and the authors
observed that co-kriging successfully captured trends with respect
to aspect and elevation. Cunha et al. (2013) studied the rainfall
spatial distribution in the Espirito Santo State, using kriging and
co-kriging, and they found better performance using the multivari-
ate technique.
Other studies related to regression-kriging also have been
developed around the world. Stand out Alvares et al. (2013), whose
work mapped the Köppen climate classification in Brazil, and
Adhikari et al. (2014), where the authors made spatial prediction
of soil organic carbon contents and stock in Denmark.
Authors like Zhang et al. (2012) observed that regression-
kriging could make predictions more accurate than ordinary
kriging and co-kriging. The authors mapped soil carbon spatial
Table 1
Descriptive statistics of the biomes of MG State, southeastern Brazil (Scolforo et al., 2015).
Biome Phytophysiognomy
Savanna Shrub Savanna
Savanna Wooded Savanna
Savanna Densely Wooded Savanna
Atlantic forest Semideciduous Seasonal Forest
Atlantic forest Rain Forest
C: average C-stock; N/ha: number of individuals per hectare.
25
distribution for a typical karst peak cluster depression landscape,
in southwestern China, and they observed that ordinary kriging
and co-kriging had limited predictive abilities.
According to Mello et al. (2013), regression-kriging is a combi-
nation of two spatial interpolators. One interpolator is based on a
multiple regression model, which can result in good performances,
because such models seek a relationship of cause and effect
between the target and the geographic variables, such as latitude,
longitude, and altitude. However, Mello et al. (2013) drew atten-
tion to the fact that regression models can over or under estimate
when the input variables are out of the range of the values used for
model fitting. To correct this limitation, it is necessary to insert a
stochastic process with the application of ordinary kriging of
residuals.
Seeking to understand and improve the mapping of C-stock
distribution, there is a scientific gap for the Brazilian scenario on
the performance of spatial interpolators. Thus, this study presents
a comparative evaluation of spatial interpolation methods to esti-
mate and map the aboveground C-stock of arboreal vegetation of
the Savanna and Atlantic forest biomes in MG State, which is a
Brazilian State that presents great vegetational diversity.
Therefore, the aim of this study was to map aboveground
C-stock of arboreal vegetation of the Savanna and Atlantic forest
biomes in MG State using geostatistical interpolators such as ordi-
nary kriging, co-kriging, and regression-kriging, evaluating the best
spatial technique, in the sense of precision and predictive ability.
2. Material and methods
2.1. Basic characterization of MG State, southeastern Brazil
Brazil has a total area of 8,514,877 km2 and MG State accounts
for 7% of this area, i.e., 586,528 km2, being the fourth largest State
of Brazil. MG is the second most populous State of the country hav-
ing a population of 20.59 million inhabitants, which results in a
density of 33.4 people per square kilometer. In economic terms,
MG is the State with the third largest Gross Domestic Product
(GDP), a total of 175.69 billion dollars in the end of 2010, or,
9.3% of the national GDP (IBGE, 2010).
Table 1 presents the descriptive statistics for the Savanna and
Atlantic forest biomes in MG State, highlighting the variability
between them. Table 1 also specifies the descriptive statistics for
the landscape variations belonging to each biome.
MG State is geographically divided into 6 macro regions: cen-
tral, south-central, east, northwest, north, and west (Scolforo
et al., 2015). Climate data were derived from the ‘‘Economic
Ecological Zoning in the state of Minas Gerais (ZEE-MG)”, which
was developed by Federal University of Lavras in partnership with
the State Institute of Forests (Carvalho et al., 2008). A total of 39
weather stations fairly distributed in MG State, belonged to
Meteorological National Institute (INMET), were used to interpo-
late temperature and precipitation data (Fig. 1). These stations
present large datasets, most of them greater than 30 years. Thus,
the interpolation of the mean values were feasible and consistent
(Carvalho et al., 2008).
C (Mg/ha) N/ha N° species
10.47 401 202
12.17 1,173 686
28.51 1,649 317
41.41 1,377 1,336
53.64 1,864 513
26 H.F. Scolforo et al. / Forest Ecology and Management 376 (2016) 24–35
Fig. 1. Average annual rainfall (a), average annual air temperature (b) and topography (c) along MG State, Southeastern Brazil.
Observing the climate variability in the State, it is noticed a
negative rainfall and a positive temperature gradients from south
to north (Fig. 1a and b). This variability helps to explain the
predominance of these two biomes in the State. Savanna is
predominantly in the west/northwest/north/central regions, with
warmer and wetter climate during summer and a pronounced
dry period; and Atlantic forest occurs in the south-central and east,
with mild and rainy climate, especially in the south.
The topographic characteristics of MG State were derived from
the digital elevation model (DEM) (Fig. 1c). The DEM was derived
from a map matrix with 100-m resolution that was developed from
the ‘‘Shuttle Radar Topography Mission” (NASA-SRTM), which
allowed the extraction of the geographical and topographic
variables for respective cells in MG State (latitude, longitude and
altitude). The latter ranges from 100 to 2,811 m. Higher altitude
variation is found in the eastern region, from the lowest
(approximately 100 m) up to the ‘‘Pico da Bandeira” mountain
peak (2,811 m), the second highest mountain in Brazil.
2.2. Sampling and determination of aboveground C-stock of the
arboreal individuals of the Atlantic forest and Savanna biomes in MG
State, Brazil
Surveys using a multi-stage sampling methodology in each
region of MG State were conducted during the FI-MG in 2008, as
described by Scolforo et al. (2015), which can be summarized as
follows.
A total of 148 forest fragments were used in this study. Due to
the heterogeneous nature of the native fragments (Table 1)
(Scolforo et al., 2015), a high number of forest fragments were
sampled for each biome.
A total of 3,575 plots (1,000 m2 in size) were systematically
installed and measured for each biome, being 61 forest fragments
sampled with 1,453 plots for the Savanna biome and 87 forest frag-
ments with 2,122 plots sampled for the Atlantic forest biome. The
sampling intensity was sufficient for both biomes as shown by
Gomide et al. (2005).
The forest fragments, here considered as parcels of forests rang-
ing from 3.89 to 85,388 ha (Table 2), selected during the FI-MG
represent as great as possible the current forest spectrum in MG
State (Fig. 2), which presents forest fragments in different site
qualities, different successional stages, trees with different
diameters and heights and different degrees of anthropization
(presence of human activities).
Atlantic forest biome lies in eastern portion of MG state, closer
to the coast and occupying mountainous region. Most of its forest
fragments are primary forests. Even for the fragments that were
disturbed somehow in the past, this impact taken place many years
ago and these forest fragments now are too close those character-
ized as primary forests. On the other hand, Savanna biome variabil-
ity regarding past disturbances is higher. However, we noticed that
clusters exist for this biome, where the primary forests are concen-
trated in the south-central, forests with recent disturbance are
concentrated in the central, northern and northwestern regions
and forests with some disturbance are concentrated in western
and eastern regions.
The heterogeneous nature of a native forest fragment leads to
an increase in the variability of vegetation indicators. Therefore,
 H.F. Scolforo et al. / Forest Ecology and Management 376 (2016) 24–35 27

Table 2
Minimum and maximum forest fragment areas (ha) for each biome and number of forest fragments in each size class for each biome (Size Class I: 0–100 ha, Size Class II: 100–
500 ha, Size Class III: >500 ha).

Biome Minimum area (ha) Maximum area (ha) 0–100 ha 100–500 ha >500 ha
Savanna 3.89 9,982.86 15 35 11
Atlantic forest 14.55 85,388.00 43 30 14

Fig. 2. Biomes and sampled fragments spatially distributed in MG State, Brazil.

the dataset used in the analysis of this study was the average of C- Atlantic forest biome
stock of the plots contained in each of the 148 forest fragments Semiciduous Seasonal Forest:
(Hershey, 1996).
From the two biomes, 1,923 trees were scaled as follows: in the C ¼ e10:95þ2:09 lnðDBHÞþ0:81 lnðHÞ ; R2 ¼ 92:67% and Syx ¼ 0:0100Mg
Savanna biome, a total of 1,091 trees were distributed in 915 for ð3Þ
the Shrub Savanna and the Wooded Savanna, and 176 for the
Rain Forest:
Densely Wooded Savanna. In the Atlantic forest biome, a total of
832 trees were distributed in 674 for the Semideciduous Seasonal C ¼ e11:32þ2:14 lnðDBHÞþ0:81 lnðHÞ ; R2 ¼ 97:79% and Syx ¼ 0:0027Mg
Forest and 158 trees for the Rain Forest. All the procedures of how
ð4Þ
trees and species were selected, divided by size classes and how
aboveground C-stock (stem and branch wood for trees with DBH where C is the aboveground C-stock (Mg) for each arboreal individ-
larger than 5 cm) of each tree was determined are described in ual; e is the base of the natural logarithm; ln is the natural loga-
Scolforo et al. (2015). rithm; DBH is the diameter measured at 1.30 m above the ground
The equations for C-stock (Eqs. (1)–(4)) were first applied to the (cm); and H is the total tree height (m).
trees of the plots of each one of the 148 sampled forest fragments.
Consequently, we summed C-stock for all the trees and according 2.3. Mapping aboveground C-stock of the arboreal vegetation of the
to the plot size we extrapolated and got the information of biomes in MG State, Brazil
C-stock per hectare. Thus, calculation of C-stock per fragment
was done (Rufini et al., 2010; Scolforo et al., 2015). The mapping of aboveground C-stock of the arboreal vegetation
of the Savanna and Atlantic forest biomes in MG State was carried
Savanna biome out by ordinary kriging, co-kriging, and regression-kriging.
Shrub Savanna and Wooded Savanna:

C ¼ e11:13þ2:38 lnðDBHÞþ0:61 lnðHÞ ;
Densely Wooded Savanna:
C ¼ e10:88þ2:64 lnðDBHÞþ0:61 lnðHÞ ;
R2 ¼ 97:08% and Syx ¼ 0:0025Mg 2.3.1. Variographic study
The variographic study was established from the generation of
ð1Þ
the experimental semivariogram and its modeling for the applica-
tion of the tested interpolators.
R2 ¼ 94:86% and Syx ¼ 0:0057Mg In this study, the exponential model, described in Journel and
Huijbregts (1978), was fitted for obtaining the set of parameters
ð2Þ to be used in the estimation via ordinary kriging, co-kriging, and
28 H.F. Scolforo et al. / Forest Ecology and Management 376 (2016) 24–35
regression-kriging. This model was chosen because in previous
studies it has shown a desirable performance for quantities such
as rainfall mapping (Mello et al., 2012) and mapping of the above-
ground C-stock of a Mexican conifer afforestation (Galeana-Pizana
et al., 2014). The exponential model fitting was conducted by
weighted least squares. These fittings were made using the
R3.0.0 software (R Development core team, 2013), through the
geoR package (Ribeiro Jr. and Diggle, 2001). Also GS+ software
(Robertson, 1998) was used to perform co-kriging fittings.
2.3.2. Ordinary kriging and co-kriging
The prediction of non-sampled points by ordinary kriging was
described initially by Journel and Huijbregts (1978). Kriging is
based on the spatial autocorrelation structure, where the spatial
dependence of a given regionalized variable means that is possible
to model part of the prediction error associated with the geograph-
ical position of the spatially distributed points. The experimental
semivariogram is modeled by fitting a theoretical semivariogram
based on the estimation of 3 parameters (nugget effect, range
and sill). In this study, the experimental semivariogram was
modeled separately by fitting a theoretical model for Savana and
Atlantic forest biomes, in the sense to reduce the vegetational
variability found in MG State and thus enable the modeling of
the spatial structure for the C-stock variable.
The ordinary kriging estimator is given by the following
equation:
X
n
b X0 ¼
Z ki Z xi ð5Þ
i¼1
where Zb X0 is the estimation of the value in position X0; n is the
number of neighboring sample points used for the prediction of
the non-sampled value Z b X0 (in the kriging vicinity); ki is the i-th
weight assigned to each i-th observation of the variable of interest
in the position X; and Zxi, is the observed value.
The estimation of non-sampled points through co-kriging was
described by Yamamoto and Landim (2013), among others, which
is an extension of kriging, where one or more easier measured vari-
ables help to explain the target variable as they are correlated (Wu
et al., 2009). For this approach, the identification of the neighbors’
weight was made with the fitted parameters of the crossed semi-
variogram. The crossed semivariogram was fitted for Atlantic forest
and Savanna biomes separately, where the secondary variable was
the annual precipitation (mm). The linear correlation between C-
stock and precipitation of 0.34 and 0.56 for the Atlantic forest
and Savanna biomes, respectively, were statistically significant.
These correlation coefficients are relevant because a good correla-
tion between the auxiliary and target variables make co-kriging
more effective (Basaran et al., 2011). The co-kriging estimates are
given by:
X
n1 X
n2
b X0 ¼
Z k1i Z 1i þ k2i Z 2i ð6Þ
i¼1 i¼1
b X0 is the estimation of the value in position X0; n is the
where Z
number of neighboring sample points used for the prediction of
non-sampled value Z b X0 (in the kriging vicinity); and ki and k2i are
the i-th weights assigned to each i-th observation of the variables
Z1i (target variable) and Z2i (observed co-variable).
2.3.3. Regression-kriging
Regression-kriging is a mixed spatial interpolator that combines
a global interpolator (fitted regression model to predict the target
variable, which is C-stock in this case) and a geostatistical interpo-
lator. The global interpolator is a linear regression model having as
inputs geographical variables, i.e., latitude, longitude, altitude, dis-
tance from the coast, among others. This interpolator globally cap-
tures the general patterns of the target variable, i.e., the one to be
mapped. The geostatistical interpolator allows for characterizing
the stochastic process in the mapping procedure (Mello et al.,
2013).
According to Mello and Silva (2009), the aboveground C-stock of
the arboreal vegetation in MG State is influenced by longitude. The
authors observed that such geographic variable is correlated to cli-
mate conditions of MG State, which affects the biomes and their
distributions along the State as noted above and therefore can be
geographically modeled. To assume this point, Pearson’s correla-
tion coefficients between longitude and C-stock (Mg/ha) were stat-
ically significant presenting values of 0.53 and 0.21 for Savanna
and Atlantic forest, respectively.
Using the topographic characteristics of MG State, the
georeferenced continuous cells with dimensions of 100 m  100
m (1 ha) were created over the vegetation length in MG State.
Thus, using the ArcMap software (ESRI, 2010), it was possible to
estimate C-stock for each one of the cells and, consequently,
generating the global map based on the geographical fitted
model.
Derived from the estimates of the geographical fitted model,
residuals (observed less estimated values) were calculated. From
these estimations, the ordinary kriging map of the residuals was
developed by behavioral analysis of the spatial continuity of the
residues, fitting a theoretical semivariogram model to the experi-
mental semivariogram.
For the application of regression-kriging, after the generation of
the global map for each one of the cells created along the MG
State’s biomes, a residuals map was created and merged into this
global map previously developed based on the fitted regression
model. This procedure allows for removing the trends on the esti-
mates made by the geographical model, promoting a final unbiased
map.
Fitting the geographic model, longitude (Lo) and biome as a
categorical variable were used. To this end, the tested model was
presented in Eq. (7), which proposed differentiation in C-stock dis-
tribution for each biome:
ln C ¼ Biome þ b1  Lo ð7Þ
where ln C is the natural logarithm of aboveground C-stock
[ln(Mg/ha)]; Biome is a categorical variable with 2 factors, i.e.,
Atlantic forest and Savanna; Lo is longitude in meters (Albers coor-
dinates); and bi are the parameters to be estimated by regression.
Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) test was done, which detects
collinearity between input variables (Hair et al., 1998). Eq. (7)
was fitted using R 3.0.0 software.
2.4. Mapping procedures comparison for aboveground C-stock of the
arboreal vegetation of the biomes in MG State, Brazil
The comparison between the studied interpolators was desired
to study the performance of the modeling methods (ordinary
kriging, co-kriging, and regression-kriging), which was based on
statistical criteria and mapping quality.
Mapping quality was performed using the Spatial Analyst
module, embedded in the ArcMap program (ESRI, 2010), through
the multivariate tool - Band Collection Statistics. For this tool, the
pixels must be common among the maps. In this way, the tool
provides a pixel-to-pixel analysis between the maps in order to
observe the correlation between them along the area of interest.
Therefore, a correlation matrix is generated between the maps.
The statistical criteria or the goodness-of-fit was based on
precision statistics obtained from 32% (48) of the total forest
fragments. These forest fragments were separated exclusively for
validation, and they were randomly selected and weighted for each
 H.F. Scolforo et al. / Forest Ecology and Management 376 (2016) 24–35 29

biome. The precision statistics were the Mean Absolute Error (MAE, 3. Results and discussion
%), Maximum Absolute Error (MaE, %), Mean Bias Error (T, %) and
the Agreement Willmontt Index (D), whose formulas are pre- 3.1. Variographic modeling for ordinary kriging and co-kriging of
sented, respectively, as follows: aboveground C-stock of arboreal vegetation in biomes of MG State,
Brazil
P48 jOi Pi j
i¼1 Oi
MAE ð%Þ ¼  100 ð8Þ The use of co-kriging is recommended for those cases when the
48 primary and secondary variables present not only statistical signif-
icance but also high correlation (Basaran et al., 2011). Therefore,
P48 Oi Pi  the crossed semivariograms for Atlantic forest and Savanna biomes
i¼1 Oi
T ð%Þ ¼  100 ð9Þ were modeled with the aid of the average annual precipitation.
48 This greater correlation is linked to the fact that precipitation
affects C-stock distribution, since Atlantic forest biome is concen-
P48 trated in regions with similar temperatures, but different rainfall
i¼1 ðOi  P i Þ2
D¼1P 2
ð10Þ regimes, i.e., as greater the rainfall, greater the C-stock. Similar pat-
48
i¼1 ðjOi  Q j  jP0i  Q jÞ tern happens in the Savanna biome (Mello and Silva, 2009).
In Fig. 3, it is possible to observe the experimental and modeled
where Oi, Pi and Q are predicted and observed C-stock values, and semivariograms for aboveground C-stock of the arboreal vegeta-
average of the observed C-stock values, respectively. tion of the Atlantic forest biome (a), the experimental and modeled
MAE represents a measure of the average error, T indicates a crossed semivariograms for the same variable in the Atlantic forest
prediction bias and is centered around zero and Willmontt’s D biome with the aid of precipitation as secondary variable (b), the
index has been used for evaluation of accuracy of models/methods. experimental and modeled semivariograms for aboveground
This index reduces the outliers’ effect in statistical value C-stock of the arboreal vegetation of the Savanna biome (c) and
(Willmontt, 1984) and as higher is D value greater is the model the experimental and modeled crossed semivariograms for the
(Angulo-Martinez et al., 2009). In addition to these statistical same variable in the Savanna biome with the aid of precipitation
indices, the scatterplots of the predicted values around 1:1 as secondary variable (d).
line and Shapiro-Wilk test (at a = 0.05 of probability) were Exponential model was fitted for all the cases, allowing for
evaluated. characterization of the spatial continuity of the target variable

Fig. 3. Theoretical and experimental semivariogram (a, c) and theoretical and experimental crossed semivariogram (b, d) for the aboveground C-stock of arboreal vegetation
(Mg/ha) of Atlantic forest and Savanna biomes, respectively.
30 H.F. Scolforo et al. / Forest Ecology and Management 376 (2016) 24–35
(C-stock). The values of the nugget effect and sill enabled the
characterization of an appropriate spatial dependency structure
(Cambardella et al., 1994), however, it is stronger for the crossed
semivariogram, which indicates a spatial structure gain whether
precipitation is used as secondary variable. Thus, it is clear that
aboveground C-stock of arboreal vegetation in the biomes of MG
State have a multivariable nature, which can be modeled based
on rainfall pattern or even by the geographical location within
the State as suggested by Scolforo et al. (2015).
The practical range for the modeled semivariograms, which rep-
resents the maximum distance within which the spatial autocorre-
lation occurs, for the univariate and multivariate approaches were,
respectively, 93 km and 105 km in the Atlantic forest biome, and
898 km and 900 km in the Savanna biome, respectively.
The average density of sampling points in both biomes was
similar. However, the Atlantic forest biome concentrates the
vegetation in the phytophysiognomes of Semideciduous Seasonal
Forest and Rain Forest, and then presents greater species richness
when compared to the Savanna biome. Thus, this point makes
harder capturing the existence of the spatial structure of C-stock
distribution in this biome when compared to the Savanna biome.
Savanna biome changes smoothly the phytophysiognomes
along MG State, thus this biome presents greater practical range
and lower nugget effect when compared to the Atlantic forest
biome.
The ranges found in this study for both biomes are compatible
with the territorial extension and the average density of sampling
points of fragments for each biome in MG State. Comparatively,
Hengl et al. (2007), studying the mapping of soil organic matter
in Croatia, found a range of 84.13 km.
3.2. Regression-kriging
Regression-kriging is presented in three parts: (i) geographical
model for estimating aboveground C-stock of the arboreal vegeta-
tion of biomes in MG State; (ii) residual kriging map; and (iii)
removal of trends by sum of the both maps (global + residual).
Pearson’s coefficients between C-stock and longitude for the
Atlantic forest and Savanna biomes presented significant correla-
tions as previously mentioned. This is an important step for setting
a consistent geographical model, because this test demonstrates
how the geographical variables can explain the dependent vari-
able. Table 3 shows the statistics of the fitted regression, estimated
coefficients and the statistical significance of each fitted parameter
and also the Variance Inflation Factor test values.
Analyzing the fitted model, all tested variables were highly sig-
nificant, which implies, in addition to the importance of the
selected variables, non-existence of the multi-colinearity between
input variables, which was confirmed by VIF test. The low estimate
errors of the fitted parameters also deserve to be highlighted which
strengthen the high statistical significance of the input selected
variables in the model (Mello et al., 2013). Finally, the simplicity
of the model can be highlighted, which means that the model pre-
sented an appropriate statistical behavior and can be easily inter-
preted and applied as well.
Table 3
Geographical model setting with estimated coefficients by regression, statistical
significance of the estimated coefficients and Variance Inflation Factors (VIF).
Parameter Variable Coefficient Standard error VIF
b0 Intercept 3.976a 0.466 1.003
AF 1.161a 0.112
b1 Lo 9.312  107a 2.997  107 1.003
AF is a constant associated with Atlantic forest, since Savanna biome is the intercept
baseline; Lo is longitude in meters.
a
Significant at 5%.
Fig. 4. Theoretical and experimental semivariogram for the residuals from the
geographical model estimates of abovegound C-stock of arboreal vegetation [ln(Mg/
ha)] of the biomes in MG State, Brazil.
The fitted geographical model (Table 3) resulted in a coefficient
of determination equal to 0.55, which is reasonable taking into
account the large variability found in the dataset as previously
mentioned. Among several sources of variability, we can highlight
that the use of the biomes as categorical variable to differentiate
C-stock distribution, helped to reduce the variation found in the
data, which consequently brought flexibility and power of general-
ization for the geographical model.
The semivariogram of the residuals derived from the geograph-
ical model, which was modeled by an exponential model, is shown
in Fig. 4. It is observed that the spatial structure was reasonable
modeled, with a range of 339 km. The values of the nugget effect
and sill enabled the characterization of a moderate spatial
dependency structure (Cambardella et al., 1994), however, lower
than those obtained by kriging and co-kriging.
The geographical model estimated adequately the spatial
behavior of C-stock, which consequently reduced possible trends
for specific areas. Thus, including biome as a categorical variable
provided C-stock estimates for each biome (different intercept
level), bringing the geographical model closer to the reality.
Residuals ordinary kriging map (Fig. 5a) presents low values
and considerably balance between the over and under-estimates
of the residuals generated by geographical model. This map shows
over-estimates (negative values) for three regions occupied mainly
by Savanna biome (northern and western regions), but also occu-
pied by Atlantic forest biome. The inverse behavior can be
observed for those regions with predominance of Atlantic forest
biome, like in south-central and eastern regions, for which the
model produced underestimates (positive values), and for the cen-
tral region that is occupied mainly for Savanna biome. Meusburger
et al. (2012) using regression-kriging for rainfall erosivity mapping
in Switzerland, comment on this issue (balanced distribution of the
residues), which means the residuals require a balanced spatial
distribution, suggesting no trend for the estimates from the geo-
graphical model, and thus, the model is appropriate for the study
area, as presented and discussed earlier.
Fig. 5b presents the C-stock map generated by the geographical
model. As discussed before, the geographical model is appropriate
for its estimates in the study area. From the global map, some
discussion of the characteristics related to the C-stock distribution
in MG State can be highlighted. The central, northwestern and
 H.F. Scolforo et al. / Forest Ecology and Management 376 (2016) 24–35 31

Fig. 5. Residual kriging (a) and geographical model (b) maps for aboveground C-stock of arboreal vegetation of the biomes in MG State, Brazil.

northern regions presented low values of C-stock. Savanna biome
is predominant in these regions, which helps to explain the low
amount of C-stock. In addition, the low C-stock in these regions
results from the combination of temperatures exceeding 25 °C
and low annual rainfall (Carvalho et al., 2008). The western region
presents a mix between Atlantic forest and Savanna biomes. Thus,
C-stock founded in this region is greater than in typical regions of
Savanna biome. In addition, in this region, there is a unique occur-
rence of the phytophysiognomy Densely Wooded Savanna, which
presents the highest C-stock for the Savanna biome in MG State
(Table 1). This higher C-stock compared to northern, northwestern
and central regions can be associated to the fact that this region
has favorable conditions for tree growth, warming combined with
water and nutrient availability (Carvalho et al., 2008). Finally, the
predominance of the Atlantic forest biome in the eastern and
south-central regions in MG State, resulted in a high concentration
32 H.F. Scolforo et al. / Forest Ecology and Management 376 (2016) 24–35
Fig. 6. Distribution of the predicted values around the 1:1 line of C-stocks estimated by the different methods (a: ordinary kriging; b: co-kriging; c: regression-kriging).
Table 4
Precision statistics generated by the ordinary kriging, co-kriging, and regression-kriging interpolators.
Variable Techniques
C-stock (Mg/ha) Ordinary kriging
Co-kriging
Regression-kriging
of C-stock, which can be explained by the high stand density found
in this biome (Table 1), reasonable edaphic conditions and better
spatial and temporal rainfall distribution (Carvalho et al., 2008).
3.3. Comparison of the studied interpolators
In Fig. 6, it is possible to observe the distribution of the pre-
dicted values around 1:1 line for ordinary kriging (a), co-kriging
(b) and regression-kriging (c). In addition, in Table 4, the precision
statistics for the studied interpolators are presented.
As shown in Table 4, regression-kriging showed the best results
for all evaluated statistics. All the studied methods resulted in
relatively large MAE and MaE, which is an indication of how the
dataset variation impacts the results. For Bias (T, %) and Wilmontt’s
D index, regression-kriging performed much better than kriging
and co-kriging. The combination between a global and a geostatis-
tical interpolator represented better the C-stock distribution along
the MG State.
On average, all the interpolators appropriately estimated
C-stock. However, underestimation and overestimation occurred
for extreme values of C-stock (Fig. 6). Since data variation is high,
none interpolator is robust enough to capture the pattern for
extreme values. Even for regression-kriging, longitude by itself
MAE (%) MaE (%) T (%) D Shapiro
62.97 99.2 36.91 0.54 0.1148
61.97 96.4 36.91 0.54 0.1301
57.95 90.9 16.88 0.67 0.1404
cannot capture well extreme values, since this variable is highly
correlated with climate data, which is not stand level specific.
Therefore, easy and simple new variables should be measured in
the future to help the interpolation in reducing this noisy.
The performance of the interpolators was especially affected by
kriging and co-kriging inability to predict the lowest values,
especially those lower than 10 Mg/ha, while regression-kriging
presented this inability mainly to predict the highest values, espe-
cially those larger than 70 Mg/ha. Thus, as the dataset is concen-
trated around ±1 standard deviation (Mg/ha) and the occurrence
of the lowest values were more often than the highest values,
regression-kriging tended to lesser errors. This can be noticed by
the predicted values around the 1:1 line (Fig. 6).
Independent of the problems described above, the analysis
made from Fig. 6 and Table 4 show that regression-kriging
presented more accurate estimates than co-kriging and ordinary
kriging. Mishra et al. (2012), while studying C-stocks estimates
from the methodology proposed by the IPCC, demonstrated that
the use of techniques that incorporate geostatistics, more specifi-
cally regression-kriging, may result in higher prediction accuracy
when the existence of spatial dependence is observed.
It is also interesting to mention that because of the high vari-
ability of the data and considerable range of longitude, soil types,
 H.F. Scolforo et al. / Forest Ecology and Management 376 (2016) 24–35
climatic variability, stage of fragment conservation and even the
succession of the vegetation found in MG State, the statistical val-
ues can be considered satisfactory, mainly for regression-kriging,
which is featured as an estimator with low bias (Table 4).
The results demonstrate that the multivariate kriging methods
need to be considered instead of ordinary kriging application for
C-stock in large areas, like MG State, where mainly the longitude
can be used as secondary variable, as demonstrated here.
Galeana-Pizana et al. (2014), while mapping aboveground
C-stocks of a Mexican coniferous forest population, observed
greater performance of regression-kriging, thus being a more effec-
tive technique for mapping, thus adding reliability to the result.
A relevant factor regarding the quality of the estimates from the
geostatistics interpolators can be seen from the similarity pre-
sented by the C-stock maps of the biomes in MG State (Fig. 7).
The correlation between the pixels throughout the State in cells
of 100  100 m (1 ha) is 99% for the final maps of ordinary kriging
and co-kriging; 97% for the final maps of regression-kriging and
ordinary kriging; and 97% between the final maps of regression-
kriging and co-kriging. In addition, when comparing the estimated
C-stock given by the interpolators with the forest inventory data-
set, we noticed that all interpolators presented total C-stock for
MG State very close with the C-stock provided by the forest inven-
tory. For the Savanna biome, all the interpolators tended to slightly
overestimate C-stock (total estimates of kriging, co-kriging and
regression-kriging were 5%, 5% and 4%, respectively, greater when
compared to the observed total), while for the Atlantic forest
biome they presented the opposite behavior (total estimates of
kriging, co-kriging and regression-kriging were 9%, 8% and 7%,
Fig. 7. Aboveground C-stocks maps of arboreal vegetation of biomes in MG State obtained through ordinary kriging (a), co-kriging (b), and regression-kriging (c).
33
respectively, lower when compared to the observed total). Again,
regression-kriging technique presented closer values of what was
observed in the field.
This clearly indicates the reliability of the study, being capable
to capture specific details that rendered regression-kriging most
efficient in the aboveground C-stock mapping of arboreal vegeta-
tion of biomes in MG State.
Ordinary kriging and co-kriging presented appropriate maps as
a result of the coefficients of these techniques being dependent on
the spatial variations between the sampling points (Hudak et al.,
2002) as shown by the fitted semivariograms (Fig. 3).
However, the best performance is attributed to regression-
kriging due to the fact that there was correlation between C-stock
and the geographical variable (longitude). Hence, the hybridization
method (geographical model combined with ordinary kriging of the
residuals derived from the geographical model) allows capturing
details regarding the distribution of C-stock in the biomes of MG
State, as it promotes a correction of the estimates for locations
where the geographical model did not perform properly, showing
higher estimation errors. For regression-kriging, since their coeffi-
cients depend only on the correlation between the dependent and
independent variables, this presents itself as the most appropriate
technique for spatial mapping of the target variable, thereby com-
bining the advantages of a deterministic and stochastic methods
(Yao et al., 2013). In addition, while co-kriging and ordinary kriging
were performed separately for each biome, regression-kriging was
done considered the whole vegetation in one dataset. The fitted
regression model provided by adding biome as a categorical
variable the predictive ability to estimate C-stock for each biome
34 H.F. Scolforo et al. / Forest Ecology and Management 376 (2016) 24–35
properly. Therefore the predictive ability of the regression model
and estimates trend correction by ordinary kriging provides a great
power to this technique.
Thus, for large areas, the hybrid interpolation technique pro-
duces more detailed prediction map, conferring a greater consis-
tency to the results, which was observed in the present study.
4. Conclusions
The quality of the geographical model developed in this study
through the identification of correlation between C-stock and
longitude and biome, combined with the kriging of the residuals
generated by this model enabled the observation of true variations
in the distribution of C-stock in the two most important biomes of
MG State. Furthermore, it can be concluded that the regression-
kriging was superior to ordinary kriging and co-kriging for map-
ping C-stocks in large areas.
Because of the significant correlation found between the
average annual precipitation and C-stock, the insertion of the pre-
cipitation as an auxiliary variable for the co-kriging method
improved the estimates when compared to the ordinary kriging.
The accuracy of the three methods was demonstrated by a high
correlation between estimated pixels and field observations in cells
of 1 ha; between the maps of ordinary kriging and co-kriging;
between the maps of regression-kriging and ordinary kriging;
and between maps of regression-kriging and co-kriging. Therefore,
the three methods were accurate, despite the capture of specific
details that rendered regression-kriging as the most efficient in
the mapping of aboveground C-stock of arboreal vegetation of
the biomes in MG State.
Although regression-kriging performed well to describe C-stock
for Savanna and Atlantic forest biomes, new covariates are needed
to reduce the uncertainties of understanding C-stock in MG State.
Longitude captures, on average, the right pattern of C-stock in
MG state, however, for extreme values this variable was not robust
enough. Future field data collection from burned areas and influ-
ence of river stream should be important to reduce the error for
high and low C-stock forest fragments.
Acknowledgements
The authors are grateful to the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoa-
mento de Pessoal de Nível Superior – Brazil (CAPES), the Conselho
Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico – Brazil
(CNPq), the Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas
Gerais – Brazil (FAPEMIG) and the Instituto Estadual de Florestas
– Brazil (IEF) for supporting this work. These funders had no role
in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish,
or preparation of the manuscript.
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