Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

ASEAN 36TH Summit: Key
Issues
Carlyle A. Thayer
June 25, 2020

We request your assessment of the following issues:

Q1. The ASEAN region is facing great challenges related to economic stability and
security. What are the implications of the 36th ASEAN Summit held by Vietnam on
June 26 in promoting solutions to address these challenges?
ANSWER: The 36th ASEAN Summit has to map out a regional plan for socio-
economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic at the same time devise policies
to weather a slowdown in global growth and increased competition if not
acrimony between Washington and Beijing.
ASEAN official have made it clear they will give ASEAN and its interests top priority
and will not take sides between China and the United States.
ASEAN’s long-standing plans to build a regional community based on three pillars
– political-security, economic, and socio-cultural – will have to be reviewed and
revised to take into account the coronavirus pandemic and rising tensions in China-
US relations.
Q2. In your opinion, what are the issues that ASEAN and Vietnam, as the Chair for
this year, should focus on solving in the coming six months?
ANSWER: There are six pressing issues that need to be addressed: (1) fine tuning
the COVID-19 Fund so it has the capacity to address management and mitigation
of the coronavirus; (2) post-COVID-19 socio-economic recovery including open
borders and economies and movement of labour; (3) revising the three ASEAN
community blueprints to the year 2025 in light of current developments; (4)
improving the efficiency of relations with dialogue partners; (5) completing the
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership; and (6) empowerment of women.
Q3. What do you think of the determination of the participating countries to sign
the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement by the end
of this year? What is the importance of the RCEP agreement to Australia?
ANSWER: There seems to be general consensus that the RCEP agreement should
be completed by the end of this year without the participation of India. Most
countries stricken by the coronavirus want to resume economic growth and RCEP
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provides the incentive to do so. There are, however, two concerns that could affect
this objective. First, failure to bring the COVID-19 pandemic under control. Second,
a slowing of global economic growth. Either individually or in combination it is
possible that one or more countries may feel their economies are not strong
enough at the moment to join RECP.
RCEP is very important to Australia particularly since President Trump pulled the
U.S. out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Australia needs all the insulation it can
get for its economy through multilateral efforts that promote trade by lowering
tariffs and restrictions on trade. Australia sees benefit in belonging to a wide
regional arrangement as this will impose some restraints on China’s behaviour and
make it more predictable.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “ASEAN 36th Summit: Key Issues,” Thayer
Consultancy Background Brief, June 25, 2020. All background briefs are posted on
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.