Neural Computing and Applications

https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-020-04993-6 (0123456789().,-volV)(0123456789().
,- volV)

S.I. : DPTA CONFERENCE 2019

Prediction of TBM penetration rate based on Monte Carlo-BP neural

network
Meng Wei1 • Zelin Wang1 • Xiaoyu Wang1 • Jialuo Peng1 • Yu Song1

Received: 12 February 2020 / Accepted: 2 May 2020

 Springer-Verlag London Ltd., part of Springer Nature 2020

Abstract
Based on the BP neural network model of machine learning method, the corresponding random input parameters are
generated by Monte Carlo method, and the prediction of TBM driving speed is studied. In this study, the machine learning
method is applied to the prediction of TBM penetration rate, and the established empirical model has higher accuracy and
practicability. After selecting the predictive control type of BP neural network, according to the control requirements of
TBM, system composition and the characteristics of different geological tunneling, the appropriate data are selected to train
the neural network, and the predictive control model of neural network for TBM with high convergence and real-time
performance is established. Monte Carlo method has strong optimization and control functions in the realistic planning of
many complex problems. In the process of TBM velocity prediction, the random input of parameters is realized by Monte
Carlo method, which makes the prediction more accurate. BP neural network is used to predict the penetration rate of
TBM. Its accuracy mainly depends on the accuracy of input parameters. The actual measured and predicted values of TBM
driving speed are basically near the straight line x = y as the horizontal and vertical coordinates, and the correlation
coefficient R = 0.9789. Therefore, the BP neural network combined with genetic algorithm has a high reference value for
the prediction of TBM driving speed. When the TBM type is the same and the system equipment is the same, four factors,
namely uniaxial compressive strength, Brazilian tensile strength, peak slope index, and distance between planes of
weakness, are taken as input parameters of BP network by calculating the weight of influencing factors. In the specific
operation, the genetic algorithm is used to iterate continuously to find the optimal solution of the initial weight parameters
of BP neural network. In this study, this prediction method is applied to practical prediction. The feasibility of this method
is verified by comparing with the final actual measurement result, which is of great practical significance to the evaluation
of engineering, design scheme and cost control.

Keywords TBM  Penetration rate  Machine learning  BP neural network  Monte Carlo method

1 Introduction conditions on the construction should be considered, but

The twenty-first century is an era of vigorous development
of underground space. With the rapid development of
China’s economy, the demand for the construction of large-
scale tunnel projects such as highways and railways has
also increased [1]. In the process of tunnel construction, not
only the influence of complex engineering geological
& Xiaoyu Wang
wangxiaoyu@stu.cdut.edu.cn
1
State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and
Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of
Technology, Chengdu 610059, Sichuan, China
also the construction progress and quality should be guar-
anteed to meet the standard [2]. The traditional drilling and
blasting methods have been difficult to meet the current
construction requirements, so the tunnel boring machine is
born. Tunnel boring machine includes Shield and TBM,
but it is customary in China to call TBM for rock stratum
and Shield for soft soil stratum [3]. As a new type of
equipment, the full-face tunnel boring machine excavates
the working face of the tunnel advancing forward through
various types of cutter head system and at the same time
transports the excavating material to the rear through the
conveyor belt, finally forming the expected excavation
type. This kind of construction equipment is suitable for

123

excavation of full-face rock tunnel in underground engi-
neering [4].
Since the world’s first tunneling machine was born in
1952 and successfully applied to the Oahe Dam project in
the USA, TBM tunneling technology has gradually devel-
oped into a mature technology that can meet the needs of
tunneling in various complex geological conditions.
Because of the advantages of high construction efficiency,
good tunnel formation, small environmental impact on
surrounding areas and safe operation, it has become the
preferred choice for the construction of deep-buried long
tunnels at home and abroad [5]. Many large-scale tunnel
projects abroad, such as the English Channel Tunnel and
the Tokyo Bay Submarine Tunnel, are classical projects
successfully applying TBM construction technology [2].
As a sub-project of common infrastructure construction
projects such as railways and highways, reasonable control
of tunneling duration is the key task of overall project
schedule management. However, due to the complexity of
geological conditions and the diversity of TBM tunneling
parameters, the prediction of TBM penetration rate is
hampered [6]. Therefore, the establishment of an effective
and feasible prediction model of penetration rate can dee-
ply explore the quantitative relationship between the vari-
ous influencing factors and reasonably guide the
construction of TBM tunnel on this basis, which has a far-
reaching impact on the development of this construction
technology. With the emergence of artificial intelligence
technology and its development in various fields, the
application of machine learning method in geotechnical
tunnel excavation engineering to solve a series of problems
in the construction process has become a hot spot of current
research [7]. Some scholars used Bayesian regularization
method and differential evolution algorithm to train artifi-
cial neural network and compared the results with other
algorithms such as support vector machine algorithm and
genetic algorithm. It is found that the model of differential
evolution algorithm has better effect [8].
In the aspect of TBM performance prediction,
researchers put forward many performance prediction
models, such as theoretical model and empirical model, by
applying different input parameters and analysis methods.
Based on the experience of predecessors, in this study, after
selecting the predictive control type of BP neural network,
according to the control requirements of TBM, system
composition and different geological tunneling character-
istics, appropriate data are selected to train the neural
network, and a predictive control model of tunnel boring
machine with high convergence and real-time performance
is established. In addition, in the process of TBM velocity
prediction, the random input of parameters is realized by
Monte Carlo method, which makes the prediction more
accurate.
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Neural Computing and Applications
2 The relevant factors affecting TBM
penetration rate
2.1 Effect of TBM construction principle
on tunneling work
TBM mainly uses the cutter head to excavate through the
direct contact damage between the cutter and rock. Under
the action of forward thrust, the disc hob mounted on the
cutter disc tightens the rock surface. The rotation of the
cutter disc makes the disc hob rotate around the center axis
of the cutter disc, but also around its own axis. Under the
action of the thrust and torque of the cutter head, the hob
rolls on the concentric circular slit fixed on the advancing
working face. When the thrust exceeds the compressive
strength of the rock, the rock will be cut and broken
directly, and then the disc hob will penetrate into the rock.
A concentric circular groove is formed on the tunnel face
due to extrusion. When rock grooves deepen and cracks
extend beyond the shear and tensile strength range of rock,
rock fragments will fall off between adjacent concentric
grooves. The rock breaking principle of disc hob is shown
in Fig. 1. The force model of disc hob is shown in Fig. 2.
The construction mechanism of TBM mainly depends
on the interaction between TBM and tunnel rock. Firstly,
the interaction between tunnel wall and TBM boots can
make the construction move forward step by step. Sec-
ondly, the force between the surrounding rock and the
temporary support system of TBM can enhance the sta-
bility of surrounding rock and provide a part of the driving
force for forward construction. The other is the force
between rock mass and TBM cutter head. The hob breaks
and peels the tunnel face of rock mass, and drives forward
step by step in the process of continuous circulation of this
work [9–11]. Among the three forces, the interaction
between the cutter and rock mass has the greatest influence
on the construction parameters of TBM, especially on the
penetration rate.
Cutter spacing Cutter spacing
Fragment
Fragment
Radial crack
Fragmentation zone
Fig. 1 Rock breaking principle of disc hob
Neural Computing and Applications
R Direction of
excavation
rock φ the work [15]. Choosing appropriate hob angle spacing can
θ
F process of excavation, thus reduce the wear of the cutter
Fig. 2 Force model of disc hob
2.2 The influence of system parameters and rock
mass parameters
Penetration rate is calculated by dividing the excavation
length of a continuous excavation process by the corre-
sponding excavation time. It is the key index to judge the
rock breaking efficiency of TBM. Its definition scale is
generally m/h or mm/r. According to statistics, the average
penetration rate is usually 0.5–7 m/h, and the correspond-
ing penetration rate per turn is 2–20 mm/r [12]. The pen-
etration rate can not only reflect the adaptability between
the selected TBM and the excavated rock mass in the
project, but also measure whether the tunneling parameters
of TBM are reasonable. There are many factors affecting
TBM penetration rate, such as tunneling system parame-
ters, geological conditions and rock intrinsic parameters.
The parameters of the tunneling system include
mechanical parameters and tunneling parameters.
Mechanical parameters refer to the size and performance of
TBM nose and rear supporting components [13]. TBM
head is composed of cutter head and drive system, support
and propulsion system, operation guidance system and
advanced drilling equipment. It is the most important part
of TBM and the key to directly determine the performance
of the system. The function of the TBM rear supporting
equipment is to provide necessary supply and support for
the normal operation of the nose and ensure that the pen-
etration rate is not affected [14].
In TBM system, the direct action of cutter and rock mass
is the main factor to carry out tunneling. Therefore, the
shape and working mode of the cutter will directly affect
the penetration rate, and the cutter is also the most vul-
nerable component in the whole system. At present, the
most widely used hob is disc hob. The cutter ring will cut
directly into the interior of rock mass, and then through
continuous rolling work to break rock mass and peel it off.
In the specific selection, although the larger diameter disc
hob can enhance the forward thrust because of its large
spacing, it still needs to consider the rock hardness, com-
pressive and tensile strength parameters comprehensively
to improve the rock breaking efficiency in construction and
reduce the tool wear.
Under the action of the cutter head drive system, the
rotary cutter head drives the cutter to work on the tunnel
face of the project and drives the excavation process. At
present, the electric drive motor is mainly used to complete
make the hob get balanced thrust in the cutter head as far as
possible, reduce the vibration of the cutter head in the
and ensure the construction efficiency. The operating sys-
tem of TBM equipment mainly controls the tunneling
parameters by changing different modes. At present, there
are three optional modes: automatic torque mode, auto-
matic thrust mode and manual control mode.
The mechanical parameters of rock mass mainly include
compressive strength, elastic modulus, deformation mod-
ulus, Poisson’s ratio and shear strength [16]. Among them,
the compressive strength of rock mass is a hard index to
determine the quality and progress of engineering. For the
measurement of compressive strength of rock mass, six
groups of experiments should be carried out along the
vertical and parallel directions of rock blocks, respectively.
In this study, the compressive strength of several rock
masses with different lithology is tested, as shown in
Table 1. When testing, rock mass specimens should be
placed in the center of the bearing plate, and loaded and
destroyed at the rates of 0.5 MPa/s and 1.0 MPa/s. During
the loading process, when the specimen is destroyed, the
maximum load is P (N), the section area of the specimen is
S (mm2), and the uniaxial compressive strength R (MPa)
can be expressed as follows:
R ¼ P=A ð1Þ
3 Parameter sampling and input based
on Monte Carlo method
Monte Carlo method is one of the experimental statistical
methods. It mainly provides approximate solutions for
various mathematical problems through statistical sam-
pling experiments, so it is also called random sampling
method. Monte Carlo method is mainly calculated by
sampling method and probability analysis. When the
sample size of the experiment is close to infinity, the
average value of the sample in statistical sampling can be
expressed as follows:
1X T
h(xt ),(xt  f (x)) ð2Þ
T t¼1
X is the decision variable and f(x) is the fitness function.
The calculated average converges to the expected value
Ef[h(x)]. Because of the limitation of field exploration
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Table 1 Comparison of uniaxial compressive strength data of different rock masses
Length (m) Lithology
759 N2L3 Interbedded sandy mudstone and clayey siltstone
2038 AnZmx3Marble
564 AnZmx3
2996 Egyargillaceous glutenite and sandstone
2879 EgyThick layered drifting conglomerate
2653 AnZmx3Granite gneiss
634 N2L3 Interbedded sandy mudstone and argillaceous siltstone
558 N2L3 Interbedded sandy mudstone and argillaceous siltstone
methods, there are some errors in the acquisition of rock
mass parameters. Therefore, when inputting parameters,
according to the corresponding distribution characteristics,
Monte Carlo method is used to simulate the geological
conditions and the randomness of rock mechanics param-
eters, which can better reflect the actual construction situ-
ation. According to previous studies, it can be concluded
that the main influencing factors of TBM penetration rate
are uniaxial compressive strength (UCS), Brazilian tensile
strength (BTS), peak slope index (PSI), and distance
between planes of weakness (DPW). Taking these four
factors as input parameters and considering the uniformity
of TBM types, in this study, Queens No. 3 Water Con-
servancy Tunnel in New York, USA is taken as an exam-
ple. The experimental data and survey data are referred to
literature [17]. In addition, because of the correlation
among the four influencing factors, it is necessary to judge
the main and secondary influencing factors, and to calcu-
late and rank the influencing factors of penetration rate. In
this study, rough set method is used to deal with such
uncertain mathematical problems. In the decision system,
the equation for calculating the importance of the n-th
attribute is as follows:
jPOSCn (D)j
rCn (D) ¼
jPOSC (D)j
In the formula, C denotes conditional attributes, D
denotes decision attributes, and POSCn (D) denotes the
positive field of the n-th attribute of D. The formula for
calculating objective weight qn can be expressed as:
1  rCi (DÞ
qn ¼ Pn
n¼1 ½1  rCi ðDÞ
According to the four indicators and the corresponding
TBM penetration rate, 11 groups of samples are selected
from the survey data for discussion. The original sample
data are shown in Table 2. Because of the complexity and
diversity of data types, it is necessary to discretize the
decision attributes in order to further analyze the weight.
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Neural Computing and Applications
Uniaxial compressive strength range (MPa)
0.5–2
54–63
60–67
1–2
1–5
45–59
1.5–2
1.5–2
The decision attribute in this study refers to the penetration
rate of TBM. The discrete sample data are shown in
Table 3.
Through calculation, the weights of UCS, BTS, PSI and
DPW, which affect TBM penetration rate, are 0.270, 0.132,
0.133 and 0.332, respectively. From the results, it can be
seen that DPW is the most important indicator affecting
penetration rate, followed by USC, so it needs to be con-
sidered in speed prediction. In the process of input of
random vectors, the corresponding parameters can be
obtained by stepped empirical distribution function. Firstly,
the original data of the sample are numbered to a1, a2, …an
etc. The corresponding empirical distribution function is:
0; ða  a1 Þ.
(
i
Fn (x) ¼ , (ai \a  aiþ1 ) ð5Þ
n
1, (a [ an )
In the formula, a = 1 * n - 1, the step diagram of
empirical distribution function is shown in Fig. 3.
For UCS and DPW, which are independent parameters,
sampling is done by Monte Carlo method to obtain random
numbers. The acquisition process is shown in Fig. 4.
ð3Þ
4 Tunneling machine control based
on machine learning
4.1 Principle and algorithm of BP neural
network
Neural network is an interdisciplinary subject which has
ð4Þ
developed rapidly in recent years. By imitating the infor-
mation processing mechanism of the brain in a non-hier-
archical structure, it can model complex unknown variables
with multi-factors, so as to obtain the nonlinear mapping
relationship between network input and network output
target [18]. BP network is a back-propagation network and
a forward multi-layer network structure [19]. BP neural
Neural Computing and Applications

Table 2 12 sets of original

Number UCS (MPa) BTS (MPa) PSI (kN/mm) DPW (m) Penetration rate PR (m/h)
sample data
1 182.4 10.2 39 0.80 2.00
2 131.0 9.9 32 0.40 1.78
3 159.0 8.7 36 0.20 2.28
4 173.1 9.8 31 0.80 1.84
5 176.0 10.3 30 2.00 1.60
6 150.7 10.8 30 1.60 1.98
7 125.0 8.3 27 1.60 2.21
8 129.2 8.2 29 0.80 1.84
9 134.5 9.0 26 0.20 2.01
10 141.4 9.4 26 1.60 1.74
11 156.9 10.7 30 0.80 2.16
12 149.3 10.2 29 0.80 1.96

Table 3 12 sets of discrete

Number UCS (MPa) BTS (MPa) PSI (kN/mm) DPW (m) PR (m/h)
sample data
1 2 2 2 0 2
2 0 0 2 1 1
3 1 0 1 0 2
4 2 1 1 0 0
5 2 1 1 2 0
6 1 2 1 1 1
7 0 0 0 1 2
8 0 0 0 0 0
9 0 0 0 0 1
10 0 1 0 1 1
11 1 2 1 0 2
12 0 0 1 0 1
F(x)

Generating N1 (0,1) Uniform Generating N1 (0,1) Uniform

Random Numbers DPW Random Numbers USC

DPW Random Number Sequence USC Random Number Sequence

solve

x1 x2 x3 Fig. 4 Sampling and solving process of Monte-Carlo method

xn

Fig. 3 Empirical distribution function ladder diagram
network is the core of neural network theory. It has strong
nonlinear mapping ability, high self-learning and self-
adaptive ability. At present, it has been widely used in
pattern recognition, information classification and function
processing. Generally, in the three-layer neural network
structure, linear mapping function is used in the input layer
and output layer, and nonlinear incremental mapping
function is used in the hidden layer, so that an arbitrary
continuous function can be approached with arbitrary
precision [20]. The structure of BP neural network is
shown in Fig. 5.
BP neural network is a typical feedforward network. As
can be seen from Fig. 5, BP neural network consists of
several layers. Each layer of neurons can only receive
signals from the former layer. There is no feedback
between neurons. The whole network structure can be
divided into input layer, hidden layer and output layer. The
neurons in the input layer have no computational function,

123

... Output layer
Input layer
Hidden Layer
Fig. 5 Structural diagram of BP neural network
while those in the hidden layer and the output layer have
computational function. These neurons with computational
functions are called computational units. Each can accept
multiple inputs, but only one output can be generated and
transmitted to different neurons. Through the forward
propagation of input data and the back propagation of
error, a learning process of BP neural network can be
formed. Under the corresponding threshold and activation
function, the input information can be transmitted to the
output layer by forward propagation. If the error between
the output result and the actual value exceeds the pre-set
value, the error is further predicted by back propagation.
The calculation process of output results of hidden layer
and output layer can be expressed as Eqs. 6 and 7,
respectively.
! parameters of BP neural network through continuous iter-
Xn
Hf ¼ fhid wij xi  hj ; j ¼ 1; 2; . . .g ð6Þ
i¼1
! simplify the subsequent calculation process of crossover
X
n
Ok ¼ fout wij Hi  hk ; k ¼ 1; 2; . . .v
i¼1
In the equation, fhid and fout represent the activation
functions of the hidden layer and the output layer,
respectively, wij is the weight between the neurons in the
connection between the input layer and the hidden layer, h
represents the threshold, and the number of neurons in the
hidden layer and the output layer is expressed by g and v,
respectively.
Neural network simulates the structure of human brain
as close as possible to the function of human brain. Among
them, learning function is the most fundamental and key
feature. Among a series of learning algorithms of neural
networks, Hebb algorithm is a typical unsupervised learn-
ing algorithm proposed in 1949. It can be explained that
when a neuron receives a signal from the previous neuron,
if both neurons are in an exciting state, the connection
between the two neurons needs to be strengthened, and its
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Neural Computing and Applications
learning signal equals the output of the neuron [21]. In
addition, error correction algorithm is also a comprehen-
sive and widely used learning algorithm, including per-
ceptron learning rules, BP learning rules and so on.
4.2 TBM penetration rate prediction based
on genetic algorithms
Because BP neural network is prone to the problem of
different local extremum, the genetic algorithm in machine
learning can effectively avoid falling into local optimum in
the search process. Genetic algorithm is a bionic opti-
mization algorithm based on Darwin’s theory of biological
evolution. By referring to the evolutionary law of organ-
isms, a set of global randomized search methods is formed.
In genetic algorithm, for a weight index, the genetic
algorithm first randomly generates N initial populations,
evaluates the fitness of all individuals in the population by
decoding and applying the fitness function, chooses the
individuals with high fitness, and copies all its information
to the next generation to complete the learning process
[22].
The genetic algorithm is operated from many random
points, so the search range is comprehensive, and it can
carry out heuristic search in the spatial range to get better
global solution [23]. Therefore, the combination of genetic
algorithm and BP neural network algorithm can avoid the
convergence of weight parameters to local extremum in
model training. In the specific operation, the genetic
algorithm finds the optimal solution of the initial weight
ation [24, 25]. The first step is to code the weight param-
eters of BP neural network by genetic algorithm, which can
ð7Þ and mutation. According to the factors affecting TBM
penetration rate, the weight parameters are coded, and then
the optimal solution of the weight parameters is obtained
by genetic algorithm, that is, the ratio of individual fitness
to population fitness. Highly adapted individuals are more
likely to be retained, and its equation can be expressed as
follows:
fi
p ¼ PN ð8Þ
i¼1 fi
1
fi ¼ ð9Þ
Ei
In the equation, fi is the fitness of i-th individual and Ei
is the sum of squares of errors of i-th individual. Mean
square error is an index to evaluate the quality of BP
prediction model. In genetic algorithm, the fitness of an
individual is an index to measure the performance of an
individual. The greater the fitness is, the greater the
Neural Computing and Applications
probability that an individual will be selected, which leads
to the continuous optimization of the population. When the
individual meets the required requirements, the final opti-
mal individual is decoded to get network connection.
4.3 Intelligent control of TBM
The dynamic matrix predictive control (DMC) based on BP
neural network is proposed. First, the predictive model is
established by BP neural network according to the input
and output data of the system, and then the predictive
controller is used to control the predictive model. The
corresponding structure is shown in Fig. 6.
Based on this intelligent control system, the basic con-
trol flow is as follows. Firstly, the excavation of TBM
tunneling machine is carried out under the traditional
manual mode control mode, and the main factors affecting
TBM penetration rate are found out, and the relevant data
of each factor are collected. The second is to sort out the
collected data and screen out the data that meet the
requirements. Thirdly, the BP neural network prediction
model is established based on the sorted data. By training
the network, the output results are as close as possible to
the actual output. Fourthly, a dynamic matrix controller
based on BP neural network model is established to predict
the output of the network, which is used to control the
influencing factors of penetration rate and improve the
penetration rate of TBM construction.
5 Test and analysis of forecast results
In this study, 4 * 42 sets of input data, namely UCS, BTS,
PSI, and DPW, are finally determined. The trained BP
neural network is used to test, and 42 sets of data generated
by Monte Carlo are input randomly, and the parameter
constant is input directly into the assignment. The pene-
tration rate of TBM is calculated, and the predicted results
are compared with the actual measured values. The con-
crete results are shown in Table 4.
Dynamic
Controlled
Matrix Control
object
Algorithms
BP network
prediction model
Fig. 6 Dynamic matrix predictive control based on BP neural
network
By plotting the actual measured value and the predicted
value into a curve (Fig. 7), it can be seen that the predicted
value of TBM penetration rate of the training data is
basically similar to the actual measured value, and the
trend of change is relatively consistent. In the regression
comparison of scatter plot in Fig. 8, the actual measured
and predicted values of TBM penetration rate as horizontal
and vertical coordinates are basically near the straight line
x = y, and the correlation coefficient R = 0.9789. Based on
the comparative analysis, it is found that the Monte Carlo
method is used to simulate the statistical distribution of the
parameters, and the stochastic parameters generated by the
Monte Carlo method combined with the BP neural network
constructed by the genetic algorithm have a high reference
value for the prediction of TBM penetration rate.
6 Discussion
Full-section TBM is a kind of comprehensive large-scale
engineering equipment which was born in the 1930s for
tunnel excavation. TBM mainly relies on the interaction
between the driving force of rock mass destroyed by hobs
and the torsional force of rock mass revolving by discs, and
finally realizes the progressive excavation effect of TBM
towards the tunnel face. The tunneling efficiency of TBM
is 5 to 10 times higher than that of traditional drilling and
blasting methods. However, due to the development of
science and technology in the last century, there are fewer
cases of TBM applied in engineering projects in the early
stage of its birth. In China, the origin of TBM dates back to
the 1960s. However, for a long time, the application of
TBM in tunnel excavation in China relies on foreign
manufacturing and contracting. Until recent years, China
has gradually explored and has owned the independent
intellectual property rights of TBM roadheader, which will
occupy a dominant position in the future hard rock tunnel
excavation projects in China.
With the progress of the times, more and more large-
scale projects have sprung up rapidly. TBM construction
has become the preferred equipment for hard rock tunnel
excavation. TBM should reasonably preset the tunneling
parameters according to the geological changes in the
construction process. However, there is still much room for
TBM to develop in the adjustment of construction param-
eters for the projects with complicated geological condi-
tions. Compared with the traditional drilling and blasting
method, the construction of TBM equipment has poor
adaptability to different geological conditions. In the pro-
cess of excavation, it is easy to delay the whole project due
to the slow excavation speed. Therefore, in order to solve
the low efficiency of TBM tunneling, reduce the delay and
improve the construction efficiency, it is necessary to have
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 Neural Computing and Applications

Table 4 Comparison of actual

Actual value Predicted value Actual value Predicted value Actual value Predicted value
and predicted TBM penetration
rate (mm/rev) 1.739 2.343 3.645 3.880 7.483 7.251
1.988 2.392 3.742 4.484 7.758 7.773
1.995 2.928 4.117 4.263 8.119 7.844
2.066 2.082 4.598 4.053 7.843 7.689
2.291 2.274 4.743 5.313 7.119 7.964
2.606 2.918 4.983 4.974 6.720 6.856
2.245 2.260 5.969 6.070 8.339 8.188
1.993 2.553 5.380 5.321 8.743 8.524
2.494 2.574 6.218 6.531 8.402 8.372
2.860 2.790 5.860 5.186 8.465 8.253
3.738 4.056 5.614 6.185 7.758 7.773
3.250 3.532 5.769 5.905 8.532 8.342

Actual value prediction of TBM penetration rate, and the established

9
Predicted value empirical model has higher accuracy and practicability.
8
Driving speed (mm/rev)

7
6 7 Conclusion
5
After selecting the predictive control type of BP neural
4
network, according to the control requirements of TBM,
3 system composition and different geological tunneling
2 characteristics, appropriate data are selected to train the
1 neural network, and the predictive control model of neural
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 network for tunnel boring machine with high convergence
Number and real-time performance is established. In the process of
TBM velocity prediction, the random input of parameters is
Fig. 7 Contrast curve between actual and predicted TBM penetration
rate realized by Monte Carlo method, which makes the pre-
diction more accurate. BP neural network is used to predict
10 the penetration rate of TBM. Its accuracy mainly depends
on the accuracy of input parameters. In the case of the same
Predicted value (mm/rev)

8 TBM type and the same system equipment, UCS, BTS,

6 network by calculating the weight of influence factors. In
4 the optimal solution of the initial weight parameters of BP
2
0
0 2 4 6
Actual value (mm/rev)
Fig. 8 TBM penetration rate regression scatter map
a comprehensive understanding of the various performance
parameters of TBM and its impact on geological condi-
tions. The key performance parameter is the penetration
rate of TBM. Compared with the traditional regression
method, the machine learning method is applied to the
PSI, and DPW are taken as the input parameters of BP
the specific operation, the genetic algorithm is used to find
neural network by continuous iteration. In this study, the
forecasting method is applied to actual forecasting. The
feasibility of this method is verified by comparing with the
final actual measurement result, which is of great practical
8 10 significance to the evaluation of engineering, design
scheme and cost control.
Due to the limited training samples and the influence of
cutter head wear on actual tunneling process, the prediction
structure will be affected to some extent. Therefore, in the
future research, the sample size can be expanded, and the
factors such as cutter head wear can be classified and
discussed, so as to improve the accuracy of prediction.

123
Neural Computing and Applications
Acknowledgement This paper has been supported by National Nat-
ural Science of China (Grant no. 41572358).
Compliance with ethical standards
Conflict of interest There is no potential conflict of interest in our
paper. And all authors have seen the manuscript and approved to
submit to your journal. We confirm that the content of the manuscript
has not been published or submitted for publication elsewhere.
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