Optimistic time Most likely time Pessimistic time

Activity
(months) (months) (months)
A :Concept development 3 12 24
Plan definition
B: Define project scope 1 2 12
C: Develop broad schedule 0.25 0.5 1
D:Detailed cost estimates 0.2 0.3 0.5
E: Develop staffing plan 0.2 0.3 0.6
Design and construction
F: Detailed egineering 2 3 6
G:Facility construction 8 12 24
H:Mobilization of employees 0.5 2 4
I:Procurement of equipment 1 3 12
Start up and turnover
J:Prestart up inspection 0.25 0.5 1
K:Recruiting and training 0.25 0.5 1
L:Solving start-up problems 0 1 2
M:Centerlining 0 1 4
 Expected Variance
time σ2
12.5 12.25
0
3.5 3.361111
0.54166667 0.015625
0.31666667 0.0025
0.33333333 0.004444
0
3.33333333 0.444444
13.3333333 7.111111
2.08333333 0.340278
4.16666667 3.361111
0
0.54166667 0.015625
0.54166667 0.015625
1 0.111111
1.33333333 0.444444
Activity LS ES Slack (LS Critical
-ES) path
A 0 0 0 YES
B 12.5 12.5 0 YES
C 15.46 12.5 2.96 NO
D 15.68 12.5 3.18 NO
E 15.67 12.5 3.17 NO
F 16 16 0 YES
G 19.33 19.33 0 YES
H 17.25 16 1.25 NO
I 28.49 19.33 9.16 NO
J 32.66 32.66 0 YES
K 33.66 33.2 0.46 NO
L 33.2 33.2 0 YES
M 34.2 34.2 0 YES
 Variance
Activity pessimistic b optimistic a
σ2
A 24 3 12.25
B 12 1 3.3611111
C 1 0.25 0.015625
D 0.5 0.2 0.0025
E 0.6 0.2 0.0044444
F 6 2 0.4444444
G 24 8 7.1111111
H 4 0.5 0.3402778
I 12 1 3.3611111
J 1 0.25 0.015625
K 1 0.25 0.015625
L 2 0 0.1111111
M 4 0 0.4444444