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CVE172-EXAM 1

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0.1 Problem 1
The contract for a project is 72 days,

Activity IPA te ES EF LS LF TF σ σ2
A - 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
B A 16.33 0 16.33 5.66 21.99 5.66 - -
C A 14.33 0 14.33 0 14.33 0 1.67 2.78
D B 28.5 16.33 44.83 21.99 50.49 5.66 - -
E C 17.33 14.33 31.66 14.33 31.66 0 1.33 1.78
F D 14.67 44.83 59.5 50.49 65.16 5.66 - -
G E 33.5 31.66 65.16 31.66 65.16 0 2.83 8.03
H G,F 0 65.16 65.16 65.16 65.16 0 0 0

Te =0 +√ 14.33 + 17.33 + 33.5 + 0 = 65.16 or 65 days

σ T e = 12.59 = 3.5482

a) What is the chance (in percent) of meeting the schedule?

Let Ts =72 days:

z= Tσs −T e
Te
z= 72−65
3.55
z= 1.97
0.9756 or 97.56%.

b) Assume the owner delays the job start by 3 days. What is the probability
(in percent) that the project will still finish at the originally scheduled comple-
tion date?

Let Ts =72-3=69 days:

z= 69−65
3.55
z= 1.13
0.8708 or 87.08%.

c) What are the probabilities (in percent) of completing the project in:
i. 55 days or less;

z= 55−65
3.55
z= -2.82

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 0.0024 or 0.24%.

ii. More than 60 days;

z= Tσs −T e
Te
z= 60−65
3.55
z= -1.41
1 - 0.0793 = 0.9207 or 92.07%

iii. Between 65 and 70 days;

Let 65≤T s ≥ 70 days:

z= 65−65
3.55

z= 0
0.50000
z= 70−65
3.55
z= 1.41
0.92073

0.9207 - 0.5000 = 0.4207 or 42.07%

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0.2 Problem 2
PERT data have been computed for the network below. Determine the proba-
bilities of meeting the scheduled duration of 24 and 32 days.

Activity IPA te ES EF LS LF TF σ σ2
A - 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
B A 4 0 4 0 4 0 0.67 0.45
C A 4 0 4 1 5 1 - -
D B 6 4 10 4 10 0 0.33 0.11
E C 3 4 7 7 10 3 - -
F C 7 4 11 5 12 1 - -
Te =0 + 4 +
G D,E 2 10 12 10 12 0 0.33 0.11
H D,E 1 10 11 18 19 8 - -
I G,F 9 12 21 12 21 0 2 4
J H 5 11 16 19 24 8 - -
K H,I 3 21 24 21 24 0 1.33 1.77
L K 4 24 28 24 28 0 1.67 2.79
M J,L 0 28 28 28 28 0 0 0

6 + 2+ 9 + 3 + 4 + 0 = 28 days
√
σ T e = 9.2245 = 3.0372

Let Ts =24days:
z= Tσs −T e
Te
z= 24−28
3.04
z= -1.32

Let Ts =32 days:

z= 32−28
3.04
z= 1.32

Scheduled Duration Probability of Meeting Schedule

30 0.74
25 0.16
35 0.99
24 0.09342
32 0.90658