PERT (PROGRAM EVALUATION AND REVIEW TECHNIQUE)

RULES / PROPERTIES:

Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) is a scheduling method originally designed to

plan a manufacturing project by employing a network of interrelated activities, coordinating

optimum cost and time criteria. PERT emphasizes the relationship between the time each

activity takes, the costs associated with each phase, and the resulting time and cost for the

anticipated completion of the entire project.

PERT is an integrated project management system. These systems were designed to manage

the complexities of major manufacturing projects, the extensive data necessary for such

industrial efforts, and the time deadlines created by defense industry projects. Most of these

management systems developed following World War II, and each has its advantages.

PERT was first developed in 1958 by the U.S. Navy Special Projects. Traditional techniques such

as line of balance, Gantt charts, and other systems were eliminated, and PERT evolved as a

means to deal with the wide-ranging time periods it takes to finish the critical activities of an

overall project.

PERT helps to calculate the probability of success of each activity and the whole project as well.

It can be done with the help of Z Score.

A vital aspect of PERT is the formula used for the calculation of expected project time. The
project reads:
Where T = expected completion time,
A = optimistic estimate,

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M = most likely estimate,
B = pessimistic estimate.
It helps in

- Estimating the probability of completion in the planned time

- Estimating the probability of exceeding the planned time

- Estimating the probability of completion in the interval defined

In order to calculate the mean time: (a + 4m + b) / 6

Standard deviation looks at how spread out a group of numbers is from the mean, by looking at

the square root of the variance. The variance measures the average degree to which each point

differs from the mean—the average of all data points.

Important Note: In order to calculate the total time duration of the project, the variance of the

CRITICAL PATH must be added only.

Question # 1:

Mc Gee Carpets and Trim installs carpet in commercial offices. McGee is very concerned with

the amount of time it took to complete several recent jobs. Some of her workers are very

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unreliable. A list of activities and their optimistic complete time, the most likely time and

pessimistic complete time for new contract are given in the following table.

Standard
Activity A M b Predecessor Mean Variance
deviation

3+ 4 (6)+8/6
A 3 6 8 ----- 0.69 0.83
= 5.8

B 2 4 4 ----- 3.66 0.11 0.33

C 1 2 3 ------ 2 0.11 0.33

D 6 7 8 C 7 0.11 0.33

E 2 4 6 B,D 4 0.44 0.66

F 6 10 14 A,E 10 1.78 1.33

G 1 2 4 A,E 2.16 0.25 0.5

H 3 6 9 F 6 1 1

I 10 11 12 G 11 0.11 0.33

J 14 16 20 C 16.3 1 1

K 2 8 10 H,I 7.3 1.7 1.33

Step 1: Calculate the mean of all activities of the project; (a + 4m + b)/6

Step 2: Calculate the variance of each activity

Step 3: Calculate Standard Deviation

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Step 4: Calculate the duration of the project = by constructing the network diagram using the

mean value – Forward pass , backward pass, slack and identify the critical activates.

 The mean / duration of the project is the sum of mean of critical activities.

 The SD of the project is the sum of SD of the critical activities only.

 The Variance of the project is the sum of variance of critical activities only.

Probability of success – different kinds of probability statements

a- Identify the percentage of success if the project will complete on 31 weeks.

b- Identify the percentage of success if the Activity A can be completed in 4 days.

c- Identify the percentage of success if the project can be success in less than 33 weeks

d- Identify the percentage of success if the project can be completed in more than 34 weeks

e- Identify if the project can be competed between 31 and 33 weeks.

Z2 – z1 z2 = 33 – 33.33 / 4.83 z1 = 31-33.33 /4.83

-0.068 – ( -.048)

0.412

Z = x – duration of the project / SD of the project

(i) Determine the Duration of the Project

(ii) What is the probability that the project is completed in 40day , 45 days and 35 days

Q2. President of Fennema construction has developed the tasks durations and predecessor

relationship for the building new motels.

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 Mean Variance SD
Activity a m b Predecessor
Time [(b-a)/6]2 (b –a)/6

A 4 8 10 ---- 7.6 1 1

B 2 8 24 A 9.6 13.44 3.6

C 8 12 16 A 12 1.77 1.3

D 4 6 10 A 6.3 1 1

E 1 2 3 B 2 0.11 0.3

F 6 8 20 E,C 9.6 5.44 2.33

G 2 3 4 E,C 3 0.11 0.33

H 2 2 2 F 2 0 0

I 6 6 6 F 6 0 0

J 4 6 12 D,G,H 6.7 1.77 1.3

K 2 2 3 I,J 2.1 0.02 0.16

- The sum of duration of critical activities should be considered as the duration of the project.

- The sum of variance of critical activities should be considered as the variance of the whole

project.

- The sum of SD of the critical activities should be considered as the SD of the whole project

- Duration of the whole project = 39.9, Variance of the project = 8.23 , SD of the project = 6.15

- 39.9 + 6.15 = 46.05 ( b) , 39.9 – 6.15 = 33.75 (a) , m =39.9

How to calculate the probabilities of each activity and the project?

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 Z = (x- mean) /SD of the project ( in case you are calculating for the project)

 Z = (x – mean) / SD of the activity ( in case you are calculating for the activity)

 Calculate the probability of the project in case of 39 weeks. ( confirmed statement )

 Calculate the probability of the project if it can be complete between x 1 and x2 ( interval

statement)

 Calculate the prob of the project if it can be completed in less than x time. ( lesser than )

 Calculate the prob of the project if it can be completed in more than x time ( more than )

 Calculate the prob of the activity if the activity can be completed in x time.

 (36 – 39.9) / 6.15 =

(i) Find the critical path of the project

(ii) What is the probability that the project is completed week 36?

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Q3. Jeck Kanet Manufacturing produces custom-built pollution control device for medium size

steel mills. The most recent project undertaken by Jack requires 14 different activities. The

optimistic time, most likely time and pessimistic time to complete projects are given in the

table

Activity Precessions a m b
A -- 4 6 7
B --- 1 2 3
C A 6 6 6
D A 5 8 11
E B,C 1 9 18
F D 2 3 6
G D 1 7 8
H E,F 4 4 6
I G,H 1 6 8
J I 2 5 7
K I 8 9 11
L J 2 4 6
M K 1 2 3
N L,M 6 8 10

 Calculate the total duration of the project

 Calculate the total variance and standard deviation
 What is the probability of being done in 53 days, 50 days and 55 days?

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Q 4. Using PERT find the total duration of the given project which has 16 activities.

Activity Predecessors optimistic Most likely Pessimistic

A -- 1 2 4

B -- 3 3.5 4

C --- 10 12 13

D -- 4 5 7

E -- 2 4 5

F A 6 7 8

G B 2 4 5.5

H C 5 7.7 9

I C 9.9 10 12

J C 2 4 5

K D 2 4 6

L E 2 4 6

M F,G,H 1 6 6.5

N J,K,L 1 1.1 2

O I,M 5 7 8

P N 5 7 9

 Calculate the total duration of the project

 Calculate the total variance of the project

 What is the probability that the project is completed in 31 days, 29 days, and 33 days .

 What is the probability that the project will be completed in less than 29 days

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Q5. Southwestern university Project

Activity Predecessors optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic

A -- 20 30 40
B A 20 65 80
C A 50 60 100
D C 30 50 100
E B 25 30 35
F E .1 0.1 0.1
G D,E 25 30 35
H G 10 20 30
I H 20 25 60
J H 8 10 12
K J 0.1 0.1 0.1
L I,K 20 60 60

 Calculate the total duration, variance and standard deviation of the project

 Identify the critical activity

 What is the probability of finishing the project in 270 days?

 Estimate the project probability that it will be completed in less than 265 days

 Estimate that the project will be completed in longer than 270

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Q7- The precedence network diagram in the following figure reflects optimistic, most likely,

and pessimistic estimates for each activity. Determine:

a. Convert the diagram into tabular form and mention the predecessors.

b. The expected completion time for each path and its variance.

c. The probability that the project will require more than 49 weeks.

d. The probability that the project can be completed in 46 weeks or fewer.

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Q8- Mr. Itzaz is a project manager and wants to plan for his new upcoming assignment for

construction of a new block. With the help of his initial working he has developed following

sequence and time estimation of the activities.

The time estimations are given as follows:

You are required to:

- Identify the precedence of all activities

- Construct the critical path

- Calculate the probability that the project will be completed in 80 days

- Calculate the probability of the project that it will be completed in 90 days.

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9- Mr. Murad has completed the time and variance estimation for his project with the help of

initial plan. His graphical activity relationship can be shown as under:

The time estimation is given as under

With the help of PERT you are required to

 Calculate the total duration of the

project

 Identify the critical path

 Calculate the probability of the project

completion in less than 34 weeks

 Calculate the project completion in

more than 36 weeks

 Calculate the project completion

between 34 to 37 weeks

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Q10- Jack Kanet is planning to manufacture custom built pollution control devices and for such

project he is considering the following time estimates.

- Estimate the total duration of the project

- Find the probability that the project will exceed 5 days from the mean time.

- Find the probability that the project will be completed 5 days lesser than mean time.

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