HOMEWORK – ASSIGNMENT 2

NAME: CHAU GIA VINH

STUDENT ID.NO: 611133014

3.17

a)
Expected Activity time of C: t = (a + 4m + b)/6 = 12

b)
Variance of Activity C = [ (b – a)/6]2 = 1.78

c,d)
MOST EXPECTED
OPTIMISTIC PESSIMISTIC
ACTIVITY LIKELY TIME
a b
m t = (a + 4m + b)/6
A 4 8 10 7.67
B 2 8 24 9.67
C 8 12 16 12
D 4 6 10 6.34
E 1 2 3 2
F 6 8 20 9.67
G 2 3 4 3
H 2 2 2 2
I 6 6 6 6
J 4 6 12 6.67
K 2 2 3 2.17

B E

F I
Dummy
A C
Activity
G H

Start D J K
 Dummy
Activity

We conclude that the critical path is A – C – F – H – J – K

The estimated time of the critical path: 7.67 + 12 + 9.67 + 2 + 6.67 + 2.17 =
40.18 weeks

e)
The activity variance of the critical path: 1 + 1.78 + 5.44 + 0.03 + 1.78 + 0.03 =
10.06
Project standard deviation = √2 10.06 = 3.17

f)
The standard normal equation:
Z = (36 – 35) / 3.17 = 0.32
The probability of completion of the critical path before week 36:
=NORMSDIST(0.32) = 0.6255  62.55% chance
 3.19

a)
MOST EXPECTED
OPTIMISTIC PESSIMISTIC VARIANCE
ACTIVITY LIKELY TIME
a b [(b – a)/6]2
m t = (a + 4m + b)/6
A 3 6 8 5.83 0.69
B 2 4 4 3.67 0.11
C 1 2 3 2 0.11
D 6 7 8 7 0.11
E 2 4 6 4 0.44
F 6 10 14 10 1.78
G 1 2 4 2.17 0.25
H 3 6 9 6 1
I 10 11 12 11 0.11
J 14 16 20 16.33 1
K 2 8 10 7.33 1.78
b)

A Dummy F H
Acitivity

Start B E G I

C D

J
 Dummy
Activity

We conclude that the critical path is C – D – E – F – H – K, and C – J

The estimated time of the critical path:
C – D – E – F – H – K : 2 + 7 + 4 + 10 + 6 + 7.33 = 36.33 days
C - J: 2 + 16.33 = 18.33 days

c)
ACTIVITY ES EF LS LF SLACK
A 0 5.83 4.83 9 4.83
B 0 3.67 6.62 9 6.62
C 0 2 0 2 0
D 2 9 2 9 0
E 9 13 9 13 0
F 13 23 13 23 0
G 13 15.17 16.17 18 3.17
H 23 29 23 29 0
I 15.17 26.11 18 29 3.17
J 2 18.33 2 18.33 0
K 29 36.37 29 36.37 0
d)
The activity variance of the critical path C – D – E – F – H – K: 1 + 1.78 + 0.11
+ 0.11 + 1.78 + 0.44 = 5.22
C - J: 0.11 + 1 = 1.11
Project standard deviation C – D – E – F – H – K = √2 5.22 = 2.28
C – J = √2 1.11 = 1.05
The standard normal equation C – D – E – F – H – K:
Z = (40 – 39) / 2.28 = 0.44
The standard normal equation C - J:
Z = (40 – 39) / 1.05 = 0.95
The probability of completion of the critical path before week 36:
=NORMSDIST(0.44) = 0.67  67% chance
=NORMSDIST(0.95) = 0.83  83% chance

3.32

a)
The project completion date: 25 weeks = 175 days

b)
CASH
NORMAL CRASH NORMAL CRASH COST
ACTIVITY
TIME TIME COST COST PER
WEEK
A 3 2 1,000 1,600 600
B 2 1 2,000 2,700 700
C 1 1 300 300 1
D 7 3 1,300 1,600 75
E 6 3 850 1,000 50
F 2 1 4,000 5,000 1,000
G 4 2 1,500 2,000 250

To crash the project down to 10 weeks, we should crash activity A by 1 week

and activity G by 3 weeks.
The total additional cost is 7,600 (1,600 + 2000x3)
c)
There are 2 methods:
* To crash the project down to 7 weeks, we should crash activity A by 1 week,
activity G by 4 weeks, activity E by 3 weeks, and activity G by 2 weeks.
The total additional cost is 15,000 (1,600 + 4x1,600 + 1,000x3 + 2,000x2)
* To crash the project down to 7 weeks, we should crash activity G by 2 weeks,
activity D by 5 weeks, and activity E by 3 weeks.
The total additional cost is 15,000 (2000x2 + 1,600x5 + 1,000x3)

4.2

a)
YEAR (x) DEMAND (y) x2 xy
1 7 1 7
2 9 4 18
3 5 9 15
4 9 16 36
5 13 25 65
6 8 36 48
7 12 49 84
8 13 64 104
9 9 81 81
10 11 100 110
11 7 121 77
∑ x = 66 ∑ y = 103 ∑ x 2 = 506 ∑ xy = 645

a = y – bx

66 681
x = 11 = 6 a = 9.36 - 2750 x 11 = 6.34

103
y = 11 = 9.36 y = a + bx = 6.34 + 0.25x

645−11 x 6 x 9.36 681

b= 506−11 x 36
= 2750
b)
YEAR (x) DEMAND (y) MOVING AVERAGE
1 7
2 9
3 5
4 9 7
5 13 723
6 8 9
7 12 10
8 13 11
9 9 11
1
10 11 113
11 7 11
12 9

c)
WEIGHTED MOVING
YEAR (x) DEMAND (y)
AVERAGE
1 7
2 9
3 5
2
4 9 63
1
5 13 59
1
6 8 103
5
7 12 96
5
8 13 106
1
9 9 113
5
10 11 106
11 7 719
2
12 83

d)
Moving average > weighted moving average
4.3
Ft = Ft-1 + ∝(At-1 – Ft-1)
EXPONENTIAL
YEAR (x) DEMAND (y)
SMOOTHING
1 7 4.36
2 9 5.42
3 5 6.85
4 9 6.11
5 13 7.27
6 8 9.56
7 12 8.94
8 13 10.16
9 9 11.3
10 11 10.38
11 7 10.68
12 9.18
Vẽ hình
Exponential smoothing > trend.