Duration te=(to+4tm+tp)/6 tsd=((tp-to)/6)^2

Activity Predecessor O M P PERT Mean PERT SD

A 5 6 7 6 0.111111111111111
B 1 3 5 3 0.444444444444444
C 1 4 7 4 1
D A 1 2 3 2 0.111111111111111
E B 1 2 9 3 1.77777777777778
F C 1 5 9 5 1.77777777777778
G C 2 2 8 3 1
H E,F 4 4 10 5 1
I D 2 5 8 5 1
J H,G 2 2 8 3 1

Critical Path Week = 17 4.77777777777778

(Most Likely)

Pessimistic 21.7777777777778
Optimistic 12.2222222222222
Standard Deviation 2.185812841434
Probability of 22 weeks:
x=22 22 2.28747855498907
mean=17 Normal Distrbn 0.988916047123506
sqrt of tsd=2.18
z=x-m/sqrt of tsd
Probability of 22 wee 98.8916047123506
te=expected mean
tsd=expected variance 2
10
6
A-6

1 B-3 3
(Min) Backward Pass 0 7
(Max) Forward Pass 0 3
C-4

4
4
4

(SQRT OF tsd)

(Z Value)
Critical Path = C-F-H-J
D-2 5
12
8

E-3 8
9
6
6
17
9 17
F-5
H-5

G-3

7
14
14
 Duration
Activity Predecessor a m b
A 0.08 0.13 0.15
B A 0.13 0.19 0.29
C 0.04 0.09 0.11
D B, C 0.04 0.09 0.11
E D 0.11 0.16 0.25
F E 0.13 1.64 1.72
G F 0.28 0.33 0.4
H G 0.16 0.24 0.33
I F 0.12 0.15 0.2
J H,I 0.48 0.6 0.88
K J 0.1 0.172 0.2
L K 0.1 0.168 0.2
M L 0.18 0.32 0.44

m - most likely
a - most favourable (optimistic)
b - unfavourable ( pessimistic Total duration to complete using average time:
Total Duration to complete via Critical Path:

Time difference for 15 dozen:

In one month, average order quantity is 3400 dozen,

so time saved in one month, if PERT Chart is followed:
 te=(to+4tm+tp)/6 tsd=((tp-to)/6)^2
PERT Mean PERT SD
0.125 0.000136111111111
0.197 0.000711111111111 0.322
0.085 0.000136111111111 0.322 3
0.085 0.000136111111111
0.167 0.000544444444444 C=0.085
1.402 0.070225 B Pass 0
0.333 0.0004 F Pass 0 1
0.242 0.000802777777778
0.153 0.000177777777778 A=0.125
0.627 0.004444444444444
0.165 0.000277777777778
2
0.162 0.000277777777778 0.125
0.317 0.001877777777778 0.125

mplete using average time: 4.28 hrs

mplete via Critical Path: 3.820 hrs Critical Path: A-B-D-E-F

0.460

ge order quantity is 3400 dozen, 104.3 hrs

e month, if PERT Chart is followed:
 3 1.976 2.551
D=0.085 1.976 2.551
4 6 8
0.407 E=0.167 F=1.402 I=0.153 J=0.627
0.407 5 3.178
0.574 3.178
B=0.197 0.574 G=0.333 H=0.242
2.309
2.309 7
2

Critical Path: A-B-D-E-F-G-H-J-K-L-M

 10 11 12
K=0.165 L=0.162 M=0.317
9 3.343 3.505 3.822
3.343 3.505 3.822