You are on page 1of 9

1 1

. , ,
Kingsley Adjenughwure1, 1

1
, ,
, 67100

Email: skolidak@ee.duth.gr, gbotzori@civil.duth.gr, kadjenug@civil.duth.gr, vprofill@civil.duth.gr

. ,
Mathworks MatLab,

.
, ,
,

: , , ,
, .

1.

(Profillidis and Botzoris, 2006).

(Andersson et al., 2017). ,

,
, , ,
(Bonsall 1997; Teodorovi and Jani , 2016).

. ,
,
, ,
. ,

,
(Adjenughwure et al., 2013).

,
,
,
. , , –

,
, , ,
.

2.

(Singular Spectrum Analysis, SSA) (Golyandina et al., 2001;


Hassani, 2007) (Artificial Neural Networks, ANN)
(Dougherty, 1995; Karlaftis, and Vlahogianni, 2011).
,

,
,
, ,
( 1).

,
,
.
(SSA–ANN),
2,
.

1: .
C1
GC 1 GC1,p
C2

C3 ( )
GC 2 GC 2,p
C4
(SSA)
(SSA)
CL-1
( )
GC m GCm,p
CL

2:
(SSA)
(ANN) (Adjenughwure et al., 2015).

, (SSA)

,
,
.

, ,
, (Box et al., 2015):

(root mean squared error, RMSE),


(mean absolute error, MAE),
(mean absolute percentage error, MAPE),
2
(R ).

,
, (6)
(3) .

3: 6–3–1
Mathworks MatLab.
,
(8)
. ,
(11)
( . 4 ).

, ,

.
:

1: .
2: 2,20 .
3:
2,20 .
4:
2,20 .

– , .

, .
,
, ( )
( ).
2/4/2008 31/5/2014,
2251 . ,

1, ( ),
( 3).

3.

(primary
component) 1 (P1), P2+P3, P4+P5, P6+P7,
PC8+PC9, P10+P11 ( 4). P12,

.
, .

5 6 1
( – )
(ANN) ( 5)
(SSA–
ANN) ( 6). 1
,

.
3: ( )
( – ), .

4: (SSA)
1 (
– ).
5: .

6:

(SSA–ANN).
1: , ,
– ( , 1).

(%)

) SSA –

21.3511 13.4269 30.3%


(RMSE)
(MAE) 12.4788 8.6983 37.1%

(R2) 0.8539 0.9448 10.6%

SSA–ANN
.

4. –

, , .
Mathworks MatLab
,
, , , , , ,
.
, ,
, , , .,
.

, –
, .
,
.

SSA–ANN
.

,
. ,

,
,
,
, .

,
,

.
,
.

Adjenughwure K., Balopoulos V., Botzoris G. (2015), Singular spectrum analysis – Hybrid
forecasting methods with application to air transport demand, 7th International Congress on
Transport Research, Hellenic Institute of Transportation Engineers, Athens.
Adjenughwure K., Botzoris G., Papadopoulos B. (2013). Neural, fuzzy and econometric techniques
for the calibration of transport demand models, Journal of Mathematical Sciences and
Engineering Applications, 7(5), 385-403.
Andersson M., Brundell-Freij K., Eliasson J. (2017). Validation of aggregate reference forecasts for
passenger transport. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 96, 101-118.
Bonsall P.W. Principles of transport analysis and forecasting, in: O'Flaherty C.A. (Ed.), Transport
Planning and Traffic Engineering, Elsevier, Amsterdam, 1997, pp. 103-131.
Box G.E., Jenkins G.M., Reinsel G.C., Ljung G.M., Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and
Control, fifth ed., John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken NJ, 2015.
Dougherty M. (1995). A review of neural networks applied to transport, Transportation Research
Part C: Emerging Technologies, 3(4), 247-260.
Golyandina N, Nekrutkin V, Zhigljavsky A. Analysis of Time Series Structure: SSA and Related
Techniques, Chapman & Hall/CRC, New York, 2001.
Hassani H. (2007). Singular spectrum analysis: Methodology and comparison, Journal of Data
Science, 5(2), 239-257.
Karlaftis M.G., Vlahogianni E.I. (2011). Statistical methods versus neural networks in
transportation research: differences, similarities and some insights, Transportation Research
Part C: Emerging Technologies, 19(3), 387-399.
Profillidis V., Botzoris G. (2006). Econometric models for the forecast of passenger demand in
Greece, Journal of Statistics and Management Systems, 9(1), 37-54.
Teodorovi D., Jani M. Transportation Engineering: Theory, Practice and Modeling, Butterworth
- Heinemann, Oxford, 2016.

You might also like