Consumers and

COVID-19: Lessons
Europe can learn
from China

Editor’s Note
Although the novel coronavirus
hit China first, the World Health
Organisation now says that
Europe is the epicentre of the
outbreak, with the affects felt
in almost every country in the
world. Every hour brings new
developments and it’s difficult
to find a market that hasn’t
been severely disrupted by the
outbreak.
Equally difficult is finding the time
to take a step back and take
stock of the broader implications
of the outbreak. That’s where we
come in. One of the strengths
of Mintel is our global reach.
This means that our analysts
– wherever they’re based –
have the ability to reach out to
colleagues around the world to
better understand how this crisis is
3
Contents
playing out in different regions. In
particular, there is a huge amount
that we, in Europe, can learn from
our colleagues in China.
From Stockpiling Dried
Goods To A Resurgence Page 4
This crisis will affect different
markets in very different ways, but Of Home Cooking
in this genuinely unprecedented
situation we find ourselves in,
there is value in taking any
learnings we can from countries
that are even just a few weeks A Step Change In Page 10
further down the road.
Distribution Patterns
“You Only Realise
Toby Clark What You’ve Got When Page 18
Director of Research,
EMEA It’s Gone”
It’s Hard To See Now, Page 24
But This Crisis Will Pass
 5

From Stockpiling
Dried Goods To
A Resurgence Of
Home Cooking
 7

Stocking up or
panic buying?
Possibly the biggest consumer story in the early
days of the crisis has centred around stockpiling
and empty store shelves.

The supply squeeze started with hand sanitiser,

moved on to toilet paper, and is now in full
effect across canned, dry, and ambient foods.

According to Mintel research, as of early March,

10% of UK consumers were already making
an effort to stock up on groceries and other
supplies. In Germany, the proportion was 11%.
 9

Concerns over grocery availability

have faded in China
Speaking to our colleagues in China,
they experienced the exact same
consumer behaviour. Dry goods,
ambient goods, and store cupboard
essentials were all hard to come by in
the first weeks of the crisis.
But this initial consumer panic faded
quickly in China, and availability is
now close to normal. In Europe, we’re
seeing a counter trend.
While it’s too early to definitively tell,
our analysts are seeing signs of an
increased emphasis on fresh food.
More people working at home means
more time for home cooking, and
there’s an inevitable tendency for
people to try to eat as well as possible
during a time of elevated fears over
health and wellbeing.

Rather than stocking up on long-life

food, there’s been a shift towards
fresh foods. More time at home means
that home cooking is coming back.

Ruyi Xu
Head of Mintel Reports,
North Asia
 11

A Step Change
In Distribution
Patterns

SARS triggered permanent shifts
in behaviour
The SARS epidemic kick-started online
retail in China, moving it from a niche
channel to a much more mainstream
option. COVID-19 has pushed it to a new
level, particularly in the grocery sector.
Older generations had previously shied
away from online grocery, but have,
effectively, been forced to change
their habits in the face of social
distancing measures.
13
China has even seen changes among
consumers who are already enthusiastic
online shoppers. While online grocery is
well-established in China, many people
still relied on supermarkets and wet
markets for fresh produce. Following the
COVID-19 outbreak, people have had
little choice but to change this pattern of
shopping. As with SARS, it seems inevitable
that many of these changes will stick, well
after the crisis has resolved.

COVID-19 will have a seismic impact
on Germany’s grocery sector
We’ve already seen an echo of these
changes in European markets. Even
before social distancing measures were
implemented, 7% of UK consumers said that
they had increased the amount of online
shopping they do as a result of COVID-19.
Despite the increasing difficulty of finding
a supermarket delivery time slot, we’re
expecting this figure to rise significantly.
3%
of German consumers
increased the amount of
online shopping they did in
early March as a result of
the COVID-19 pandemic.
Source: Mintel Global COVID-19 Tracker
15
In Germany, the proportion was much
lower at 3%, reflecting the fact that the
German online grocery sector is not as
26%
of Chinese consumers
well-established as that in the UK. But
longer-term, the impact on the German have shopped through
market could be dramatic, echoing the WeChat groups.
way that SARS created a step change in
Chinese consumers’ shopping habits.
Source: Mintel Global COVID-19 Tracker
Smaller retailers
have had to
improvise
In China, there have also been changes
on the supply side with neighbourhood
stores having to move online. But what’s
really interesting is the way that they
have made the shift. Many of them are
simply using WeChat as a sales channel,
letting customers message them directly
to place orders.
This had the added benefit of being far
more user-friendly than a fully-fledged
online store for consumers who were new
to online shopping. Our latest research
in China on the impact of COVID-19
shows that 26% of consumers have
shopped via WeChat.
 17

Improvisation
and agility will
be crucial in the
coming months
In China, even big retailers were forced to
improvise, and this often involved drawing
on the resources of local businesses.

One of the most popular dining options

in China is the hotpot restaurant – a
communal dining experience where
people cook their own food in a shared
pot of gently simmering stock. It’s hard to
imagine a dining option that’s less suited
to a period of social distancing, and
footfall suffered accordingly. In a spirit
of mutual support, though, the Chinese
online giant Alibaba has supported local
hotpot restaurants by using their staff to
fulfill deliveries.

There is significant potential for a similar

shift in the European and North American
markets that are just now moving into the
next phase of the fight against COVID-19.
It not only plays to the huge increase in
demand for delivery options, but also to
people’s desire to find ways to support
local businesses at a time when they can
no longer shop in store.
 19

“You Only
Realise What
You’ve Got
When It’s Gone”
 21

Creating Crises can highlight the mutual

bonds between dependency of brands and consumers
brands and At a time when society is being tested to a German consumers say that it’s important

their customers
degree that we haven’t seen for decades, for them to feel part of a community and
consumers and companies are realising three in five say they try to buy from local
that we depend on each other, and that companies when possible.
Consumers’ desire to support local we need to fight for survival side-by-side.
businesses was clear in China, and we We see similarly strong responses across
can expect to see the exact same thing This desire for community and localism is most of the markets we cover and
in other markets. Well over half of the something Mintel has been tracking for COVID-19 will only reinforce the supportive
consumers surveyed by Mintel said that a while now, as explained in our Mintel role that community can play in a time
the outbreak had made them feel closer Trends research. For example, half of of crisis.
to their local shops.

This is, partly, a reflection of the natural

tendency to only really appreciate what
you have when it looks as though you
may lose it.

54%
But it’s also a recognition of the simple
fact that times of crisis highlight how
interdependent we all are. As shoppers,
we are entirely reliant on businesses’

57%
ability to supply the goods and services
that allow us to survive and thrive. And as
businesses, we are entirely reliant on our
customers’ support. of German consumers say
that it’s important for them
of Chinese consumers
to feel part of a community.
said in they feel closer
to community shops Source: Mintel Reports Germany
because of the outbreak.

Source: Mintel Global COVID-19 Tracker

 23

Doing the right

thing, for the
right reasons
There’s no point pretending that this isn’t
an incredibly difficult situation. Many
businesses are facing an existential
threat to their survival.

But it’s also true that the businesses

that support and protect the broader
community, and who deal with the crisis
sympathetically and transparently, will
gather goodwill that will last far longer
than this initial phase of the crisis.

Equally, businesses that are perceived

to have treated their customers poorly
will destroy any goodwill they had.
Consumers might be prepared to pay
vastly inflated prices for hand sanitiser
at the peak of the crisis, but they will
never forget that sense that they’ve been
exploited in a time of crisis.
 25

It’s Hard To See

Now, But This
Crisis Will Pass

Inevitable impact on lives
and livelihoods
In the midst of this crisis, it can feel hard
to see any end point. People are having
to adjust to the fact that the social
distancing measures, office closures,
and threat to health are going to last for
months, not weeks.
The economic fallout will be substantial.
It’s hard to see a way forward that this
doesn’t lead to a slowdown on par with
The Great Recession.
Even before social distancing measures
were announced in mid-March the UK, 34%
of consumers were worried about the risk
of being exposed to COVID-19, and 36%
about the impact the outbreak will have on
their lifestyle.
These figures will inevitably rise sharply
over the coming weeks.
27
There is a way
back to “normal”
Despite all this, my conversations with
colleagues in China have left me feeling
more optimistic than I have in a while.
Life in China is still hugely disrupted and
companies and brands are still dealing
with challenging market conditions. But
some degree of normality is returning
- public transport is busier, footfall in
shopping malls is slowly increasing, and
more people are getting outside to enjoy
the spring weather.
There is a long way to go before this
crisis passes, and there’s a good chance
that things will get worse before they get
better, for businesses as well as for society
as a whole. At some point, though, we will
emerge on the other side.
After the most recent financial crisis,
Mintel’s key message to our clients was that
it’s vital to keep one eye on the long term.
The same is true now. The groundwork that
companies do now in terms of supporting
their customers, understanding customers’
needs, and building goodwill will play a
huge role in determining how strongly they
emerge from this crisis.
 © 2020 Mintel Group Ltd. All rights reserved.
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