Introduction to Poisson

Processes:
The Ingamells’ Approach

Limitations of Normal and Lognormal

statistical models:

At one time, scientists became convinced

that the Gaussian distribution was
universally applicable, and an
overwhelming majority of applications of
statistical theory are based on this
distribution.

A common error has been to reject

“outliers” that cannot be made to fit the
Gaussian model or some modification of it
as the popular lognormal model.

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 The single Poisson Process
The Poisson model is a limit case of the
binomial model.

A binomial distribution often occurs when

two components made of completely
liberated and discrete fragments of a given
mineral are mixed together.

Pr  
n! r nr
p q
n  r !r!
Where p is the chance of selecting the
component of interest, q the chance of selecting
the gangue, n is the number of trials, and r is the
number of successes accounting for a grain of
that mineral.

For trace constituents, q becomes very large and

p is very small, which leads to a particular case
we call the Poisson distribution. We can say the
Poisson model is a limit case of the binomial
model. 2
For trace constituents, q becomes very large and
p is very small, which leads to a particular case
we call the Poisson distribution. We can say the
Poisson model is a limit case of the
binomial model.

 r
P x  r   e 

r!
with r = 0, 1, 2, 3,…

 is defined as the hypothetical average

number of mineral grains per sample.

If n is the number of trials, the variance of

the Poisson distribution is   npq  np
since q is close to 1.

The mean value of the Poisson distribution

is   np .
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 Gold example

Ten 1000-g samples collected from a large lot,

and ground to minus 500-µm, were submitted
to a gravity concentration for the coarse gold.
The number of coarse gold particles found in each
sample was 2,1,0,0,2,1,3,0,1, and 2 respectively.

• Calculate the average number of coarse gold

particles per sample:

  2  1  2  1  3  1  2 /10  1.2

• Calculate the probability of occurrence of 0, 1,

2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 coarse gold particles in any
1000-g sample selected at random from the
same lot.

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Px  0  2.718  
1.2  1.2 0

  0.301
 0! 

Px  1  2.718  
1.2  1.2 1

  0.361
 1! 
1.2 1.2  
 2
Px  2  2.718     0.217
 2! 
1.2 1.2  
 3
Px  3  2.718     0.087
 3! 
1.2 1.2  
 4
Px  4  2.718     0.026
 4! 
1.2 1.2  
 5
Px  5  2.718     0.006
 5! 
1.2 1.2  
 6
Px  6  2.718     0.001
 6! 
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If one of these coarse gold particles on average
makes a contribution of about 0.5 g/t, estimate
the variability of the typical 1000-gram samples
using the above distribution.

30.1% of the samples would show 0 g/t gold

36.1% ,, 0.5 g/t
21.7% ,, 1.0 g/t
8.7% ,, 1.5 g/t
2.6% ,, 2.0 g/t
0.6% ,, 2.5 g/t
0.1% ,, 3.0 g/t
It is interesting to notice that   1.2 ,
therefore there is a much greater chance
to underestimate the gold content than
to overestimate it.

This has huge implications in sampling,

especially in above-cutoff grade control
when too few samples are used to make an
economic selection.
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 Additivity of Poisson
Processes

When samples taken contain discrete grains

of the constituent of interest, and they are
sub-sampled in such a way that the sub-
samples also contain discrete grains of
reduced size, a double Poisson distribution
of the assay values is likely to take place.

This phenomenon is very common in

sampling, and people may work for years in
that case and never see a thing. The most
important feature of the Poisson distribution
is indeed its additivity.

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. or

If each primary sample contains a limited average

number  of constituent of interest grains, and
the sub-samples they generate also contain a
limited average number  of reduced constituent
of interest grains, the distribution of assay values
is doubly Poisson.

 r  e   n  e  
Px  r , y  n  P[ x  r ]P[ y  n]  
r! n!

x+y has distribution P   


Let’s define the ratio f: f 


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 With   f or   n f
for each possibility, the equation for the
resulting, compounded probability of the
double Poisson distribution is:

Px  r    P y  n   Px  r  
 e nf  e
n  r   n 
e n
r  nf n  nf r
f e
   
n! r! r! n 0 n!
for r = 0, 1, 2, 3,… [1]

Difficulties may arise in programming

factorials. The use of the improved Stirling
approximation is convenient to use:

 6r  1
r
r 
r!  
e 3
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Measuring concentrations
versus counting grains

In practice, one does not usually count grains;

concentrations are measured.

The conversion factor from number of grains to, percent

X for example, is C, the contribution of a single average
grain.

Since the variance of a Poisson distribution is equal to

the mean:

sC 
Therefore

s2  C 2
For a double Poisson distribution we would have:

s C  c 
2 2 2
[2]

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The data available are usually assays in % metal,
gram/ton, ppm or ppb. They are related by the equation:

xi  aH  cri
xi is the assay value.

aH is the Low Background Content easy to sample.

ri is the number of mineral grains in the sample.

c is the contribution of one grain to the assay, in %

for example:

 weighofgrain 
c 100 %
 weighofsample 
The probability of a sample having an assay value xi
equals the probability of the sample having ri grains

when aH is relatively constant in a given area.

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The mean value of a set of assays can be shown to
be:

N
1
x
N
x
i 1
i  aH  c

For a single Poisson distribution this equation would

be:

N
1
x
N
x
i 1
i  aH  c

Where x is an estimator of the unknown average

content aL of the constituent of interest.

Assuming sampling is correct and for the sake of

simplicity, in the following part we should substitute x
for a L . Then:

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aL  aH  C  aH  c
aL  aH  C  c

 C
  f
 c

s  C aL  aH   caL  aH 
2

s 2  fcaL  aH   caL  aH 

s  caL  aH 
2
f 
caL  aH 
[3]

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The probability that there will be no difficult-to-sample
grains of the constituent of interest in a randomly taken
sub-sample is found by putting r = 0 in [1]:

 ne nf
P x  0  e 
 e 
 e  f 1  [4]
n!

If a data set fits a double Poisson distribution, the

parameters of this distribution may be found from a
reiterative process, as follows:

Make a preliminary low estimate of aH. Give an

arbitrary low value. Calculate a preliminary value for f

from [3], and for by rearranging [2]:


a L  a H  a L  a H 

C fc
Substitute these preliminary estimates in [4];
averaging the lowest P(x=0) of the data to obtain a
new estimate of aH. Increment c and repeat until a
best fit is found.
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The catastrophic,
common scenario

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